Big 12 Expansion
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Well read this from TOS Greg Swaim tweeted out : " The Big 12 has made their offer to the six Schools in the Pac 12 very clear and has detailed Fox TV numbes to go with it. - - Understand that this offer has expiration date of 30 days. - - -Farmer , what you think ? - -any validity to this have you heard anything ?
I know from reading boards still lots of Arizona - -Arizona St and Utah fans thinking the best move would be for them to join Big 12 - -just don’t know how much truth there is in this but on the other hand I’ve never heard of the guy but same goes FOR NOT being true.
Read an article saying that ESPN owns the shabang with the ACc and that the PAC 12 & the ACC hooking up really wouldn’t make much of difference money wise. - let me hear your thoughts farmer
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Well I’m not feeling nearly as confident as I was earlier. Just listened to Matt Brown from the extra point , and he was saying that from the athletic directors he had talked to about how the Big 12 was in the drivers seat and that it was a close to anything the PAC 12 AD’S were saying Whoaaa not so fast that their weren’t really any serious discussions and not really that sure about this whole Arizona and group joining If it does happen they said it’s going to be awhile it’s not something that is going to happen soon.
He said he really didn’t think the Big 12 was in the drivers seat saying really he doesn’t think there was going to be any more re-alignment or merging until he siad he thinks it’s going to take until Norte Dame makes up their mind what they are going to do. - After they decide then we very well could see the next Domino fall. - He sure wasn’t as positive about the Big 12 getting these teams from the Pac 12 as was thought
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I understand the PAC12 is going into television rights negotiations 2 years early to get a value on their remaining teams. Remaining teams may want to hear that before deciding. I’m thinking this will be a drawn out process.
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@Gorilla72 said in Big 12 Expansion:
I understand the PAC12 is going into television rights negotiations 2 years early to get a value on their remaining teams. Remaining teams may want to hear that before deciding. I’m thinking this will be a drawn out process.
That’s the whole purpose of them opening their negotiations up early so they can make some kind of counter offer to whatever the Big 12 presented yesterday. I still think at the end of the day, 4 teams moving to the Big 12 is the most likely and I could see Oregon and Washington following USC and UCLA to the Big 10 once Notre Dame makes their decision.
Personally, I think all Notre Dame’s decision does is affect how big the Big 10 goes in expansion. If Notre Dame says yes, not as difficult as what some may think, then the Big 10 adds 4 more to get to 20 so they’d be looking for a 4th school, which KU should fight tooth and nail to try and be. If Notre Dame says no, then I think the Big 10 only adds two more being Oregon and Washington.
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Getting this from Baylor board. ( Jim Hill from CBS sports at 6 p.m. reported that Oregon & Washington are also in discussion with Big 12. Hill also mentioned that Phil Knight ( Nike Owner ) and huge booster for Oregon wants to follow USc & UCLA to the BIG or move to the SEC.
2 out of the 6 schools came out today and said they were committed to Pac 12 - ( Arizona State & Utah )
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@jayballer67 said in Big 12 Expansion:
Well read this from TOS Greg Swaim tweeted out : " The Big 12 has made their offer to the six Schools in the Pac 12 very clear and has detailed Fox TV numbes to go with it. - - Understand that this offer has expiration date of 30 days. - - -Farmer , what you think ? - -any validity to this have you heard anything ?
I know from reading boards still lots of Arizona - -Arizona St and Utah fans thinking the best move would be for them to join Big 12 - -just don’t know how much truth there is in this but on the other hand I’ve never heard of the guy but same goes FOR NOT being true.
Read an article saying that ESPN owns the shabang with the ACc and that the PAC 12 & the ACC hooking up really wouldn’t make much of difference money wise. - let me hear your thoughts farmer
The Big 12 is trying to get the 6 attainable big dogs in the PAC: 4 corners + Oregon and Washington. I don’t think Stanford and Cal are interested.
Some PAC 12 presidents would much rather be associated with the ACC than Big 12. Which is fair. The ACC is a terrific academic league with UNC, dook, UVA, GA Tech. All well above anything the Big 12 has to offer. Smart financially? No. But they have huge endowments and can sacrifice some revenue for academics. KU? Not so much.
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I’ll remain the barking dog… but I appreciate all the opinions here because it educates me on this disgusting topic. Thank you!
Question: Does any of this challenge antitrust laws? Do antitrust laws still exist? I realize conferences represent associations versus buyouts… but still…
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The only expansion I’m concerned about is my waistline.
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Here is a list of the best remaining teams we can scrap for:
https://www.boardingschoolreview.com/basketball-boarding-school-sports
(sarcasm… as usual)
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Apparently North Carolina, Florida State, Clemson, and Virginia are in talks to join the SEC. If it happens it could open up a whole other can of worms with the ACC leftovers. The possibilities seem endless. Teams like Pitt, Miami, NC State, Duke, Louisville, etc. could start to be looked at.
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Wake me when it’s over…
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@drgnslayr said in Big 12 Expansion:
I’ll remain the barking dog… but I appreciate all the opinions here because it educates me on this disgusting topic. Thank you!
Question: Does any of this challenge antitrust laws? Do antitrust laws still exist? I realize conferences represent associations versus buyouts… but still…
I have to imagine that behind the scenes there is a massive breach of contract going on at the very least. My gut tells me something illegal, but who is going to speak up about it? Schools aren’t going to bite the hand that feeds them, ya know?
KU isn’t going to sue ESPN for tampering because they still need ESPN.
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Wow… I’d feel much better about going east than west! Bring these teams into the Big12!
How about we name our new conference “F*CK THE SEC!”
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@RockkChalkk said in Big 12 Expansion:
Apparently North Carolina, Florida State, Clemson, and Virginia are in talks to join the SEC. If it happens it could open up a whole other can of worms with the ACC leftovers. The possibilities seem endless. Teams like Pitt, Miami, NC State, Duke, Louisville, etc. could start to be looked at.
ya I’m hearing this too. - -SEC talking to ESPN or whoever it is about getting this GOR void for these ACC teams. They were talking saying if this happens would really help big 12 cause forcing the Pac 12 Schools plus possibly looking at Louisville & Miami from the ACC. - I can’t keep up with this anymore just crazy.
Like one said though you can say good bye to March Madness
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@drgnslayr said in Big 12 Expansion:
Wow… I’d feel much better about going east than west! Bring these teams into the Big12!
How about we name our new conference “F*CK THE SEC!”
Some talk I’ve seen too that if this were to happen possibility of Louisville & Miami from the imploded ACC
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️ the suspense is once again killing me.
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Well after all the hub bub looks like the PAC 12 is sticking together
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@jayballer67 I haven’t seen anything to indicate that. Actually quite the opposite, lots of indications that the Big 12 will be expanding again soon and are trying to pull at least a few PAC 12 teams. Things just don’t move as fast as we’d like. There are a lot of dynamics that need to be sorted out.
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@RockkChalkk said in Big 12 Expansion:
@jayballer67 I haven’t seen anything to indicate that. Actually quite the opposite, lots of indications that the Big 12 will be expanding again soon and are trying to pull at least a few PAC 12 teams. Things just don’t move as fast as we’d like. There are a lot of dynamics that need to be sorted out.
Oh ya I’ve seen multiple , multiple articles about how the PAC 12 is going to stick together or try and stick together. - -You can go on almost any PAC 12 message boards and there wil be posts or links where the Commissioner or others are talking about they not going any where and gonna stick it out.
Now that’s not saying that’s how it’s gonna turn out. I think we could get a couple of teams at least anyways from the PAC 12. I think Arizona WANTS to come , I think Colorado is looking for an escape - BUT from what I have read off multiple articles Utah is not crazy about coming to the Big 12 - - Arizona State fans come across to me like they think they are better then the Big 12.
The talk is with if Oregon & Washington don’t get that invite to the BIg which that’s not happening they are not going there right now anyways - -so if they stay in the Pac 12 it might be just for a short time but the article is saying it will give the league time to figure out what they are going to do.
It’s a mess but I wouldn’t say for the Big 12 that anything with the PAc is etched in stone by a longs ways - maybe we can - -maybe we don’t - Some figure we will have a lot better read on how it will play out by the time they break camp for the Season we will see - -Nothing gonna happen for a while
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The good news is that the Big 12 has the upper hand. That’s certainly not everyone’s shared opinion, but its a majority opinion from what I can gather. Big 12 is currently evaluating their options, has gotten many calls about joining, however has not sent any official invites out yet.
Its hard to really know but I also think Arizona and Colorado are going to end up joining. I think Oregon holds a lot of power too. They obviously want into the Big 10 but the Big 10 has basically said no for now so now they need to weigh their options. It should be noted that Oregon did not issue an official statement about staying in the PAC 12. If Oregon were to switch to the Big 12 that would probably break the PAC 12 because we’d likely see Washington and the four corner schools do the same.
Assuming ACC schools are locked up with GOR for now, a few other schools that could be in the mix are SMU and Memphis. Might see one of them if say Colorado is the only PAC 12 team wanting to break away and the BIG 12 wants to keep numbers even.
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@RockkChalkk The PAC 12 schools are going to wait and see what happens with the new TV deals they and Big 12 are working on which is the smart way to go. If you’re officials at Arizona, Arizona St., Oregon, Colorado, Utah, and Washington, you’d definitely want to know what those potential values are before making a decision about the long term future of a school. I think it’s more likely we see movement next year after each league gets their project TV deal packages which for the Big 12 will likely include values if they stay at 12, or go to 16 or 18 with the potential PAC 12 school additions.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 yeah thats definitely possible. There are models that use historical data and market share that can provide projections for what those numbers will be though. Not exact but ballpark. It might be enough information that schools don’t need to wait until its finalized in order to make a decision. I’ve heard there is one network interested in the PAC 10 deal. I’ve heard there are at least two that have expressed desire for a Big 12 deal. Always a benefit to have multiple bidders! The projections that are out there show PAC 10 at around $40M per school and Big 12 at about $51M per school. Its also been suggested that Oregon & Washington would likely demand a larger share of the PAC revenue to stay which adds another wrinkle to that formula.
Further, there are other dynamics like air times, PAC games not being seen by large sections of the country due to time zones and kickoff times is always going to suppress potential viewership. Another interesting variable in play is culture/politics. Some states/schools/conferences are quicker than others to cancel events, limit crowds if another covid-like event was to happen. For example, no fans at football games in California is a lot of potential lost revenue for both schools. I could see that weighing on the minds of more reddish states like Arizona, Colorado, Utah, etc. Maybe its not a coincidence that the heaviest rumored schools to join the BIG 12 from the PAC are from states furthest to the right politically.
I find this whole topic of conference realignment so interesting. Anxious to see where the chips fall!
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@Texas-Hawk-10 said in Big 12 Expansion:
@RockkChalkk The PAC 12 schools are going to wait and see what happens with the new TV deals they and Big 12 are working on which is the smart way to go. If you’re officials at Arizona, Arizona St., Oregon, Colorado, Utah, and Washington, you’d definitely want to know what those potential values are before making a decision about the long term future of a school. I think it’s more likely we see movement next year after each league gets their project TV deal packages which for the Big 12 will likely include values if they stay at 12, or go to 16 or 18 with the potential PAC 12 school additions.
Was listening to the pod cast of Arizona or one of the pac 12’s. - -Heard that Fox is declining to bid on the Pac 12 network. Which means if ESPN is the sole bidder then the Pac 12 is in trouble , they come in and low ball the Pac 12 and you will see Schools bailing out and bailing out fast. – Feeling is CBS is going to be on the Big 12
Also read/ heard that Fox & CBs Both appears likely to bid on the Big 12. Saying Fox has every incentive to drive the best Pac 12 Schools to the Big 12 to increase their return and cut ESPN off from late night inventory.
Multiple sources I’ve heard/read have also said they think that we won’t know anything till after this coming football Season after that they think you will see game on… In the end I think we will end up more likely then not with at least Arizona & Colorado. They were talking like Arizona really wants out and may even it it happens they would try and come by theirselves if the have to. They like others have said if Oregon & Washington are trying to hold out for an invite to the BIG , they very easily could be waiting for awhile , as the BIG isn’t looking to add they thinking for like two years and then it will be Norte Dame. - They just say Oregon and Washington are tweeneres and just don’t bring enough market value to the conference for the league to have to give them a slice of the pie.
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Really good article in The Athletic on the new Big 12 commissioner. He plans on being active and taking the initiative in all areas, including expansion. He’s already working of the Big 12 but doesn’t start contractually until August. Active, instead of “reactive”! Refreshing.
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@FarmerJayhawk said in Big 12 Expansion:
Nobody is scheduling a random non-con game in February. The money would be terrible, Self would leave, and the program would effectively die. There would be no incentive for, say, Purdue to play KU in February. You’d have to disrupt the regular league schedule or add a game midweek. Which the conferences just won’t do and 3 games in a week just for fun would be not intelligent scheduling. There are good reasons why the last independent joined a conference in 2016. Go look at NJIT’s schedule that last year. Sometimes they played back to back nights, sometimes it was almost 2 weeks between games. Good luck selling season tickets or recruiting when you have no idea when or who we’re playing until the summer. And that’s not even going into where you park other sports. Or we just drop all but football, basketball, and women’s rowing to meet Title IX compliance. I know some want to drop football and be Gonzaga of the Big East. Which would involve an almost 90% cut to tv revenue. Good luck keeping Self happy, being competitive with NIL, and keeping facilities upgraded with less than $5m per year coming in from TV.
Good points!
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This has all become about dollars and cents… I feel like there is more to this.
I’m in my 60s… and changes like this can be challenging. I have over half a century of experiencing Kansas sports and with many of the teams we may be saying goodbye to. It was devastating to me to say goodbye to OU. I’ve been an OU fan all my life, too. It seems like fanbase demographics are important.
Social changes… are schools or fanbases going to fight it out over Roe or climate change? hmmmm…
If a tornado wipes out half of Lawrence, does other members of our conference and their fanbases give a rat’s ass?
Are rivalries now officially dead?
I wonder what my perspective would be if I was 40-years younger? More accepting of these big changes?
My son is 8. He asked me about my financial investments returns over the two Covid years. He showed to me some general returns of Pokemon cards during those two years. “Dad… did your investments return 600% growth like my Pokemon cards did?” So I’m thinking… this genius is onto something. Now that we have NIL… why don’t we create college sports cards like the old baseball cards? If no other conference wants us we will make up the $ with sales of very rare Kansas basketball player cards! lol
Thanks to everyone for posting news and ideas… I feel blindsided by most of this! Have a great weekend!
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Is Jay-Z coming along for the ride?
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Like this??
Also, there’s this: https://throughthephog.com/2022/06/17/new-kansas-basketball-football-trading-cards/
In this brave new world, it’s all about your brand value. Our NC came at the most opportune time.
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Bowman University has some nice cards of Braun, Ochai, Remmy, Wilson, and McCormack. No Harris, but a freshman or two made it - Clemence. I imagine the players got paid for their image and autographs. Great timing to win a ‘chip! Hopefully it will be a recruiting win.
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Sweet! Thanks!
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So it’s looking like qw will know nothing for some time to come.
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@jayballer67 said in Big 12 Expansion:
So it’s looking like qw will know nothing for some time to come.
Not so fast my friend! https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/notre-dame-targeting-75-million-annual-media-rights-payout-in-quest-to-remain-independent/
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@FarmerJayhawk said in Big 12 Expansion:
@jayballer67 said in Big 12 Expansion:
So it’s looking like qw will know nothing for some time to come.
Not so fast my friend! https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/notre-dame-targeting-75-million-annual-media-rights-payout-in-quest-to-remain-independent/
Hmmmm, the plot looks to be thickening
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@FarmerJayhawk said in Big 12 Expansion:
@jayballer67 said in Big 12 Expansion:
So it’s looking like qw will know nothing for some time to come.
Not so fast my friend! https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/notre-dame-targeting-75-million-annual-media-rights-payout-in-quest-to-remain-independent/
Are we joining the Notre Dame conference then?
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ESPN reported that the Big12 told the Pac12 that there was not enough revenue to warrant a merger… so allegedly, they have stopped talks.
Yeah.
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@bskeet said in Big 12 Expansion:
ESPN reported that the Big12 told the Pac12 that there was not enough revenue to warrant a merger… so allegedly, they have stopped talks.
Yeah.
Time to go full send. Add the top 6 (4 corners + Oregon and Washington) and tell the rest they’re on their own.
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@FarmerJayhawk said in Big 12 Expansion:
Not so fast my friend! https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/notre-dame-targeting-75-million-annual-media-rights-payout-in-quest-to-remain-independent/
"Outgoing Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby had not heard anything specific on NBC targeting the Big 12 for additional programming but said such a move “makes sense.” "
Wow! Business at this level without communication. Hum. Sounds more like NBC is just using the Big 12 for negotiation cover but not actually interested. Maybe just having Notre Dame is worth more than filling in with the Big 12.
I think Bowlsby should have kept quiet. His comments reflect poorly on the Big 12 and also throw network tv (NBC) under the bus by showing their bluff. Since he’s days away from leaving, you would think he would just be a shadow now and not doing anything to impact the Big 12 future.
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“For weeks, it was believed that the so-called “four corners schools” — Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah — could be at the top of the Big 12’s wish list if it were to target the Pac-12 for expansion candidates.” ~ KUSports.com
So we shuffle in these schools then we split for the Big 10 later? lol This is so f-ed up even alcohol can’t ease the pain! lol
How about all D1 schools just join the SEC? Essentially… we let the SEC usurp all powers of the NCAA as they then decide to bail out of it! lol
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@drgnslayr It sounds like the TV market for the B12 is better than most were expecting.
And then it sounds like Notre Dame is looking to secure an insane TV deal, and if they do they’ll remain an independent (for now).
To me, that puts a pause on the B10 trying to poach anyone else. And I think it will allow the B12 to go after UW and Oregon first. But I have to wonder how the politics behind the scenes change that. Without knowing the structure of the BOR in each state, will they let Oregon leave without taking OSU? Can Washington leave without taking WSU?
If you HAVE to take the “State” schools with Washington and Oregon, is that a better or worse package than AZ, ASU, CU and Utah?
Sitting at 12 right now, I think the smart move is to try and get 6 of the Pac12 schools. It would work out a pretty reasonable 2 division system of 9 schools on each side. 6 Pac12 schools plus Tech, BYU and KSU make up the West. The rest to the East.
That probably screws TTU and KSU a little bit with travel, but better to be traveling making P5 money than Mountain West…
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I’m a bit perplexed why Cal-Berkeley and Stanford are not considered in at least some scenario.
Honestly, if I look at Pac12 markets of value, I think you have to pick Wash, Stanford, Cal and Arizona. If I could add 2 more it would be Oregon and Colorado.
Those six would add prestige and major markets across the west.
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@bskeet said in Big 12 Expansion:
I’m a bit perplexed why Cal-Berkeley and Stanford are not considered in at least some scenario.
Honestly, if I look at Pac12 markets of value, I think you have to pick Wash, Stanford, Cal and Arizona. If I could add 2 more it would be Oregon and Colorado.
Those six would add prestige and major markets across the west.
Cal and Stanford want no part of the Big 12
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@bskeet said in Big 12 Expansion:
I’m a bit perplexed why Cal-Berkeley and Stanford are not considered in at least some scenario.
Honestly, if I look at Pac12 markets of value, I think you have to pick Wash, Stanford, Cal and Arizona. If I could add 2 more it would be Oregon and Colorado.
Those six would add prestige and major markets across the west.
How is Oregon not THE top choice of remaining Pac12 schools? Rabid fanbase that crushes TV ratings almost every single week. Great programs in both money sports.
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@Kcmatt7 said in Big 12 Expansion:
@drgnslayr It sounds like the TV market for the B12 is better than most were expecting.
And then it sounds like Notre Dame is looking to secure an insane TV deal, and if they do they’ll remain an independent (for now).
To me, that puts a pause on the B10 trying to poach anyone else. And I think it will allow the B12 to go after UW and Oregon first. But I have to wonder how the politics behind the scenes change that. Without knowing the structure of the BOR in each state, will they let Oregon leave without taking OSU? Can Washington leave without taking WSU?
If you HAVE to take the “State” schools with Washington and Oregon, is that a better or worse package than AZ, ASU, CU and Utah?
Sitting at 12 right now, I think the smart move is to try and get 6 of the Pac12 schools. It would work out a pretty reasonable 2 division system of 9 schools on each side. 6 Pac12 schools plus Tech, BYU and KSU make up the West. The rest to the East.
That probably screws TTU and KSU a little bit with travel, but better to be traveling making P5 money than Mountain West…
Not 100% absolutely sure, but I haven’t seen any state requirement that Washington and Washington State have to be bound together in a move to any new conference. State politics here is such that most of the power is on the western side of the mountains, leaving WSU supporters scrambling. Don’t know about Oregon, but I think it’s similar.
The Seattle and Portland TV markets (#11 and #22 respectively) are much larger than Pullman/Spokane and Corvallis. And in terms of academics (remember those?), UW and U of O are well above their land-grant school counterparts at WSU and OSU. Both factors make them much more attractive to other conferences.
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I could see Colorado and Arizona jump. I thought Utah and Az State had stated publicly they were staying in the Pac 12. Maybe that changes if Az and Colo come aboard.
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@Kcmatt7 I think Oregon is not the top P12 target because the market (Portland) is smaller than than the Bay Area, Seattle, Phoenix and Denver.
Not saying it’s right. Just saying that everything about what’s going on seems to be best explained through the lens of money/revenue.
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@bskeet said in Big 12 Expansion:
@Kcmatt7 I think Oregon is not the top P12 target because the market (Portland) is smaller than than the Bay Area, Seattle, Phoenix and Denver.
Not saying it’s right. Just saying that everything about what’s going on seems to be best explained through the lens of money/revenue.
Oregon is not to be ignored, just because of two words: Phil Knight (aka Mr. Nike). His money alone will keep the athletic program in good shape no matter where the Ducks end up. (Check out the world Track & Field championships this week on TV. That shiny new track stadium they just built is nearly all due to his money. ) He is to Oregon athletics what Boone Pickens was/is to Okie State.
As our estranged friend Jaybate once noted, those sneaker bucks and Nike’s national profile speak volumes.
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@bskeet said in Big 12 Expansion:
@Kcmatt7 I think Oregon is not the top P12 target because the market (Portland) is smaller than than the Bay Area, Seattle, Phoenix and Denver.
Not saying it’s right. Just saying that everything about what’s going on seems to be best explained through the lens of money/revenue.
It is definitely about TV sets. But Oregon has the best TV ratings by far in the Pac12.
It’s like OU. You don’t want the Oklahoma City market. You want the 1.5M-5M TV Ratings regardless of who they are playing. And that is what Oregon brings.
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This whole expansion thing is crazy. I’ve read so many didn’t articles , heard so many different people with their views , so many inside sources ( which when I say inside sources is people actually connected with different programs within the leagues & have let things leak out.
Just got through listening to another from 365 sports & they guy was being asked who he thought would be the 1st team to join the Big 12 ? He said he would hate to put percentages or numerological but like he said the ONE thing the ONE team that keeps be mentioned in every article - -every conversation is Arizona. talking like he would be shocked if Arizona wasn’t. Then the next more likely then not very well could be Utah . Which kind of surprised me cause I had been hearing Colorado.
One thing is for sure the addition of teams from the PAC IS GOING TO HAPPEN. - -you can take that to the bank. When ? who knows , could be next week , could be next month , could be all the way at the end of the football season , BUT it will happen. - There is just way to much fire for it to not. - -To many sources
Like they was saying in this 365 , in the end it’s everyone for themselves , they have to do what they feel is in their best interest for their athletic department , their School. When they get their answer from ESPN and how low that offer is -they gonna bail. Some reports of ESPN saying 25 million per school - -that’s not going to get it done by far.
The main guy that does all the reporting for the Arizona Insider I think his name is Jason Scheer he is 100 % believes Arizona will land in the Big 12, he said from his sources saying what they have. - -He DOES say now if Arizona State doesn’t come then that might cause a little different response from Arizona - -he doesn’t think Arizona would leave Arizona State behind.
In the end from al I’ve red from all these different sites , fan posts and podcasts I’ve heard I think the most mentioned teams to jpin when it’s all said and done would be Arizona - - Arizona Stae - - -Colorado - - Utah - -and then possibly Oregon - - -& Washington sure gonna be interesting
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@FarmerJayhawk said in Big 12 Expansion:
@bskeet said in Big 12 Expansion:
I’m a bit perplexed why Cal-Berkeley and Stanford are not considered in at least some scenario.
Honestly, if I look at Pac12 markets of value, I think you have to pick Wash, Stanford, Cal and Arizona. If I could add 2 more it would be Oregon and Colorado.
Those six would add prestige and major markets across the west.
Cal and Stanford want no part of the Big 12
Where do you think those two end up? Seems like they’re in a really weird spot.
