@JayHawkFanToo Your 4 teams include 3 of the 4 I think will be in. The only that I don’t think makes it is Clemson. And the ACC is a weak enough this year that a 1 loss Clemson doesn’t make it.

If Michigan wins out, that mean Ohio St. is out of the playoffs. That’s basically my logic in how UCF gets in the playoffs this year. So many of those teams still in contention play each other that they will eliminate each other from contention. If Alabama runs the table and wins the SEC title, every other SEC team will have at least two losses. If Ohio St. runs the table, every other B10 team will have at least 2 losses. WVU still plays both Texas and OU. At least 2 of those 3 teams will have multiple losses going into the B12 title game.

You keep saying it’s going to take a lot of 2 loss teams, and guess what? That will be reality because so many of those teams still have to play each other.

The two teams UCF really needs to lose are Clemson and Oklahoma. Everyone else they need to lose will eventually lose at least once more.

@JayHawkFanToo and @Woodrow I think enough teams lose to get UCF in as the 4 seed.

I think Clemson will drop one and their schedule is weak enough they won’t be able to take that loss.

I think Notre Dame will drop one, but their schedule is strong enough to take a loss.

I think LSU loses to Bama for their 2nd loss.

I think Michigan takes their 2nd loss against Ohio St.

I think Texas drops at least 1 more game, probably 2 and ends up with 3 losses.

I think Georgia takes their 2nd loss against Alabama in the SEC title game.

OU is a wildcard to me. That’s the team that keep UCF out.

I think Florida loses to Georgia for their 2nd loss.

I think Oregon will drop one at some point for their 2nd loss.

I think WVU loses 2 more to both Texas and OU.

I think Kentucky loses to Georgia for their 2nd loss.

I think NC State will drop at least 2 more games this year.

Yes, UCF needs help to get in, but Alabama and Georgia can take care of a lot of those 2nd losses the SEC teams.

There are 3 teams in particular that UCF will be cheering against because those are the teams that can keep UCF put and that’s Clemson, Oklahoma, and Georgia.

Clemson and OU don’t have obvious losses on their schedule so those are the 2 teams that can really impact UCF and keep them out.

@kjayhawks Big 10 still has 2 legit playoff contenders in Ohio St. and Michigan. The ACC has 1. NC State may still be undefeated, but they aren’t winning out. 1 loss by Clemson with their weak schedule very likely eliminates them.

@JayHawkFanToo Go look at their schedule again. Cincinnati, USF, and likely Houston in the AAC title game. Cincy will be either 10-0 or 9-1 when that game happens. USF will be somewhere between 11-0 and 9-2 when they play UCF. Houston will likely be either 11-1 or 10-2 in the AAC title game match up. USF and Cincy are both ranked now and UH will likely be ranked by the time the AAC title game rolls around. Ending their season against 3 straight ranked teams will be a statement for UCF and be enough to get an undefeated UCF ahead of quite a few 1 loss teams.

They do need some upsets to happen, but I think those upsets will happen and get UCF in as the 4th seed.

@kjayhawks A lot of the CFP scenarios depend on what happens in the SEC because there are still 5 teams in the picture. The loser of the UGA/Florida game in 2 weeks is done. If Georgia wins that one, then the play at Kentucky the following week and loser of that game is done. The UGA/UK game is the same day as the LSU/Alabama game and if LSU loses, they’re done. Alabama would still be in the mix at that point if they lost, but would need an OSU/Clemson/ND loss as well to get them back in the top 4.

Notre Dame is the only other of the current undefeateds that could take a loss and not be done in the CFP race because their schedule is strong enough to take a loss and not be done.

I think CFP ends up being 13-0 Alabama as the 1 seed, 13-0 Ohio St. as the 2 seed, 11-1 Notre Dame as the 3 seed, and 13-0 UCF as the 4 seed. I think the other teams in the discussion would be a 12-1 Oklahoma, 12-1 Clemson and 12-1 Oregon.

@kjayhawks I posted about Colorado before that game got going so that’s an important piece of the puzzle out of the way for Texas and OU because now the P12 is out of undefeated teams.

I still stand by my statement that some of those teams currently behind Texas would jump ahead of Texas like LSU and Michigan both did today. These are the teams that I think would jump Texas should they win out. Georgia, Oklahoma, UCF, Florida, West Virginia, Kentucky, and NC State.

Obviously not all of those teams will win out because 3 of them are in the SEC East and Georgia has yet to play either one of them. If Georgia goes into the CFP discussion with the lone loss, that means they will have beaten Florida, Kentucky, and either Alabama/LSU in the SEC title game. That would jump them over Texas. A 1 loss Florida would have wins over Georgia, at least 1 against LSU (possibly 2) or Alabama in the SEC title game. A 1 loss Kentucky would have wins over Florida, Georgia, and either Alabama/LSU. OU and WVU would both jump Texas if they won out because it would mean they beat Texas along the way most likely unless Texas falters before the B12 title game in OU’s case. If NC State wins out, they’d be 13-0 so they’d end up ahead of Texas and I’ve said my piece on UCF and how their schedule likely sets them up at the end of the season.

Honestly, I don’t see Texas winning out to begin with. I see them dropping 1 maybe even 2 more games if they make the B12 title game. I think they lose in Lubbock and if the make the B12 title game, I think they lose to OU.

I think the CFP is going to end up being undefeated Alabama, Ohio St., UCF, and a 1 loss Notre Dame with Alabama and UCF in one semifinal and Ohio St. and Notre Dame in the other semi final.

Laugh all you want about UCF, they survived a horrible weather game today and have the schedule at the end of the season to boost their resume big time. UCF ends their season against a Cincinnati team that will either be 10-0 or 9-1 depending on their USF match up. They end the regular season against USF that will at worst be 9-2 going into that game and possibly 11-0 if they beat both Houston a d Cincinnati which would likely have them hovering near the top 10. Their AAC title game will likely be against a Houston team that should be 10-2 at worst, possibly 11-1 if they beat USF which I think they will and would be solidly in the top 25 at that point.

UCF is most likely ending their season against the other 3 best teams in their conference which will all likely be ranked at the time they play UCF and a couple of those teams may well be top 15 at the time of those games. UCF has the schedule set up perfectly for them to get in the playoff if some losses by other teams happen.

@kjayhawks If LSU wins the SEC and Bama finishes with 1 loss, they’ll both be in the playoff. Same deal if a 1 loss SEC East representative beats an undefeated Bama in the SEC title game. Alabama has to lose twice unless Clemson, Ohio St., and Notre Dame all won out which would put a 1 loss SEC champ in with 3 undefeateds.

@Woodrow Texas would still need help even if they won out which I don’t see happening. They’ll still need Geogia, Florida, LSU, and Michigan to drop a second game. If any of those teams finish with 1 loss (meaning they win out), they’d all be ahead of Texas in final rankings. Texas also needs UCF to lose, they need Colorado to lose, they would need Ohio St. to lose, and they need Notre Dame to lose, probably twice depending on who the loss is to.

Texas still has a lot of work to do because there’s other teams behind them with much harder schedules left that can jump them (or end up undefeated like NC State). I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Texas only moves up to 7 and both Michigan and LSU jump them this week.

Big 12 is not making the playoffs this year.