Let's talk about Bill.....
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@mayjay said in Let's talk about Bill.....:
@kuballin10 said in Let's talk about Bill.....:
I rest my case.
Promise?
If this is a HEM alt we know the answer to that
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@kuballin10 thumbs up for the passion, but right now I’m happy seeing Bill with a truly reloaded team and I want to see where it goes with doing things “his way”. He hasn’t had this level of talent since 2008. At least that’s where I’m at until I see otherwise. Sherron didn’t start over Russ Rob, and that worked out well. I think Harris is a glue guy that helps the team move the ball and play good D. I don’t get the sentiment to push him way down the depth chart. That seems like overkill.
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@approxinfinity I think we lack post depth compared to 08 but then it is a bit less important now.
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@kuballin10 You make all of your points based on one end of the floor and totally ignore the defensive end of the floor which is why guys like Harris and Lightfoot are starting or in the rotation.
This is why the expression “defense wins championships” exists. If you have a top level defense, teams can still win games when their offense is having an off night. If the defense is bad, like it was last year, it is nearly impossible to overcome an off night on offense as we saw repeatedly last year when KU played other good teams.
Your observation on Harris are also wrong because while he’s not a guy who looks to score first, he is capable of getting to the basket and forcing defenses to decide if they want to collapse on him or not. The difference between Harris and Remy, who has that same skill, is that Remy droves looking to score while Harris drives looking to pass.
I’m also tired of the 2011 Elijah/Brady debate because the numbers supported playing Brady more than EJ that year. The shooting numbers and assist rates were comparable, but Brady was much better at protecting the ball than EJ was and Brady was the superior defender.
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Yeah, I think it’s pretty easy to find evidence that would suggest that Coach Self is one of the top 5 active coaches.
No coach is perfect. That means there’s always something that could be improved. And that means there is always something we can critique about Self’s coaching.
Some years, it’s recruiting. Some years it’s his decisions on who’s starting. Some years it’s his stubbornness to go inside out, or whatever.
Jay Wright has more NCs than Bill in about the same amount of time. Mark Few has fewer NCs. All three are excellent, and they have their strengths and weaknesses.
Anyway, I think it’s good to bring these observations to the community’s consciousness but, like all things, keep it in perspective.
I realize that’s still leaves plenty to be debated. For some, perspective is colored by counting National Championships (which I think we all agree is the ultimate goal). Others’ perspective is colored by a variety of outcomes, including national titles, as indicators of success.
Personally, my perspective is colored by the latter. However, I’ll admit that I am occasionally frustrated by the lack of NCs.
Then I just remind myself, enjoy the journey.
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Since 1985 when I arrived in town when I was 21.
NCAA tournament every year since 1985 except for the 1 year ban.
Longest streak of tournaments qualified for ever.
Only 2 early exits in that 30+ year period.
24 conference championships.
13 conference tournament championships (and probably 1 more in 2020)
22 sweet 16’s. (and probably 1 more in 2020)
15 elite 8’s (and probably 1 more in 2020)
9 FF’s (and probably 1 more in 2020)
5 Championship games (and probably 1 more in 2020)
2 Championships. (and probably 1 more in 2020)
Kstate’s made the sweet 16 3 times in the same time span, the elite 8 twice, and of course no FF’s since I was born in 1964!
Missouri has made the sweet 16 4 times, elite 8 3 times. Of course no FF’s ever!
I’m not going to take the time to do this research but I’d guess we have more of all those categories than the rest of the Big 12 combined since 1985.
I know none of that assuages your current concerns but these are facts that keeps a lot of us energized for the present and the future.
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@bskeet National championships should be the measuring stick at KU, but it’s also really hard to win a national championship. There’s currently 3 active head coaches in D1 that have won multiple titles, technically 2 becauseof NCAA sanctions. Coach K has 5 and is retiring after this year. Rick Pitino unofficially has 2, but the vacated his second title, and Jay Wright has 2 after years of having a label of a coach that couldn’t do much in March.
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@Oldmanhawk I wouldn’t trade Bill for any other coach on this planet not even Pop from the Spurs. I’m pointing out he is not infallible and his error in what he values puts a ceiling on the team.
Think Mahomes playing his rookie year versus Alex Smith who had a great year his last year here. We aren’t going into foxboro with smith leading us same but if Mahomes had played or played all year who knows.
Calipari (albeit an awful x’s and o’s coach) let’s new guys develop not ONLY in practice but games is my emphasis.
Again - don’t want anyone but Bill but pointing out how he puts a ceiling on this team which matters in March. Give me a few losses now against Bama or whoever so we can excel with experienced freshman or transfers when it matters.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 Yep… I agree. National Championships are a measuring stick. I just wouldn’t want to say it’s the only measuring stick.
Some other considerations:
There are 350 NCAA division I basketball teams. And there are 30 NBA franchise teams. Teams in either one may start with the goal of winning a championship, but just by virtue of numbers, the likelihood of a team winning is 1:350 vs 1:30.
Professional teams have a singular goal and direct 100% of their resources toward that goal. Colleges have fewer resources and they are not 100% invested in their basketball program. Yet, there are 11 NBA teams (36%) that have never won a title despite the fact that every one of them is 100% dedicated to winning a title every year. By my count, there are 37 schools that have won at least one basketball title since 1939. 15 NCAA teams have won multiple national championships (which is the category we are in.)
I’m not saying we should not strive to win another and another. We should.
But we should appreciate what it takes (great talent, great coaching, etc. and at least a modicum of luck, among other things.) You can’t win a NCAA championship if you aren’t in the tournament and Kansas has the 3rd most NCAA tournament appearances all time. So we are putting ourselves in position to have a chance to win.
That said, I think this is really where the perception of underachieving germinates.
While our tournament performance is good, we don’t have as many championships as the other schools at the top of NCAA appearances:
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Whooa OP coming with the HEAT.
The Harris debate will rage on all season. We can all see Bobby is really good already for a freshman. He passes the eye test easily. I find it very encouraging that he’s averaged 14 minutes so far with such a deep team so you know Bill and the staff are committed to playing him. It’s too early to tell who should be playing more so far. I don’t see the improvement so far from Harris that makes me think someone like Pettiford couldn’t take that spot as the season goes on. But we all know Bill will rely on the guys he trusts and Harris is someone he trusts. I know that’s part of the OP’s theme here that Bill is who he is, for better or worse. I think putting Pettiford in the starting lineup is premature for now.
Has KU underperformed in March?- no doubt they have. That’s why 2020 hurts so bad for me at least (I’m sure many on here feel the same). We had the best PG & C in the country period. But winning in March isn’t easy at all and its hard to remember the last time a KU season wasn’t derailed by a significant injury/pandemic situation going into the Tournament. I’m certainly hopeful things will change this season
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Clemence should have played more Friday. Game flow hurt him more then anything. I thought Self should have given Zach an opportunity despite the matchup. Only going to get more difficult to see the floor when Wilson returns
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I was calling for more Sherron in his freshman year over Rus Rob. Bill doesn’t operate that way. I wish he’d sacrifice some regular-season games for a more seasoned tournament team.
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@BeddieKU23 “its hard to remember the last time a KU season wasn’t derailed by a significant injury/pandemic situation going into the Tournament.”
Not remembering 2018 at the final four missing anyone. I guess my way of thinking I remember only the really significant injury years like 2014 with Embiid hurt. 2012 was humming along all the way to an 8 point loss in the NC. Not remembering injuries then.
I’m not exactly asking you to go back and list every season and its injuries but I’m puzzled by your statement.
My theory is more supported in looking at who knocked us out of the tournament. Last season an elite 8 team beat us, 2019, a final four team knocked us out. 97,o2,03,12,16,18 NChampions beat us. 2017, FF team knocked us out as well as many others. Sweet 16 teams in 14 and 15 knocked us out, in fact other than the killer B years in the mid 2000’s we got knocked out by sweet 16 teams every single season going back to 1986 (other than the probation year).
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The Harris/RussRob/Bobby/Sherron comparison I think is a good one. Sherron was an ASSET off the bench because when he came in he changed the game and Bobby has that potential as well. Harris is a stable player who can be trusted to defend at a high level and move the ball on a team where there are already 3 guys who NEED the ball in their hands (Och, Remy, Dave). His ability to facilitate and get them going early is valuable to the team beyond his individual ability to score.
When Bobby comes in, he changes the tempo of the game and adds a wrinkle for the other team to have to figure out. All of the sudden, instead of this calm facilitator, there’s a bowling ball crashing into the paint at 100 MPH. I’m not sure that style is actually sustainable nor beneficial for 30 mpg. I think if Bobby were getting big time starter minutes, it would just lead to defenses figuring him out better, and putting him in more situations where he may not be comfortable. As it is right now he seems to know his role and be successful within that role. I do think it’s possible by the end of the year he could be finishing some games if his level of play continues to improve throughout the season.
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Here’s how I remember it.
2020-2021- Dave/Jalen Covid situation.
2019-2020- Covid cancels tournament.
2018-2019- Azubuike injured around game 9/10. Vick situation. Mess of a year.
2017-2018- Azubuike suffers knee injury before Big-12 tournament. Played at about 75/80% rest of way.
After that I don’t remember as well lol.
I used to get some satisfaction knowing KU lost to good teams. Got over that phase. The Villanova games ended that for me.
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Hot Take
Dajuan Harris may lead KU to regular-season success but Bobby Pettiford is the key to post-season success. One to frame for later?
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I think we’ve seen 2 games and don’t know who will give us the higher ceiling yet. Bobby has looked great, but Juan has been just fine. I think it’ll be interesting to see how the rotation works out when Jalen is back.
I think Juan offers a style of unselfish pure PG play that this team needs when you are playing at least 3 of Ochai, Remy, Wilson and Dave at the same time. Bobby has only been in for stretches. Is he able to play that way consistently if given extended minutes?
Good problems to have.
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I think more than Juan vs. Pettiford, the more important trade off to watch is JCL vs. Braun minutes.
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If this offense is dependent on Harris making buckets that’s a coaching problem. Self added 3600 points in the transfer portal to this team and you can tell already. Ochai Agbaji through 2 games is playing at an Elite level. I think as long as we see the ball get to the right guys hands on offense then Harris playing 25-30 a night probably isn’t too much of a concern.
Jalen returning is an interesting dynamic. I’m definitely concerned about him coming back
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@BeddieKU23 Have we heard about what type of offseason he had?
I anticipate him playing a lot of minutes at the 5 and that is partially why I’m not worried. Even when we had a historically awful bench, there were a good handful of games Jalen didn’t even play 25 minutes last season. So it isn’t like Bill played him just to play him.
Ultimately if his work ethic from Frosh to Soph was any indication I think we can expect another leap forward and another matchup nightmare added to the starting rotation. To me it looks like we have 3 (4 I guess with Dave) that could go for 30 any given night. Which is pretty dang exciting.
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Hard to tell for sure. I remember Self saying during Late Night he had improved a good bit. Looked in great shape from what little I’ve seen. Intel leaving the program lately has been tough, we had no idea Jalen Wilson was going to be a starter last season for example.
I came into the season thinking he was the x-factor given the roster. That improvement from Frosh to last year had him on draft radars for a bit. Consistency was hit or miss and also his attitude on the court/sidelines left something to be desired at times. Then he goes and gets the DUI right before the season so that’s where my concern lies. If he gives us consistent 11 & 7 production a night he’s going to be a difference maker. Hopefully he’s matured from this latest setback and is locked in. I thought the key for him was minimizing off-nights. That was something Agbaji made strides with last season. I think that’s what I was really looking forward to seeing from Jalen. We definitely need his versatility on offense and rebounding on both ends.
Let’s put it this way, he has the chance to be the #2 scorer on this team that already has Remy & Dave fighting for that mantle. Having 4 guys that could be your #1 option on offense is scary.
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The offense and defense flows with Harris at the point, and I’m a Pettiford fan. The interesting part will be next year… Harris is not a future pro imo but Pettiford will be. Will they be able to set their egos aside for less playing time? Because both need to play. At any rate, if they can co-exist, we’re set at the point for quite some time.
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So real talk, what is the key weakness that will prevent this team from winning the title?
What is the strength that could lead us to a championship?
For me the weakness unfortunately is Dave and the inside presence in general. He is just not an elite big man and he’s the only one we’ve got. I know people keep saying Zach needs to play but is he really a solid low post presence on both ends? Luckily Dave does seem to be jumping a little better this year and so is a threat on lobs with our guards driving from every angle. Which leads me to the second question.
The strength is easy. Guards. Oach, Remy, Harris, and Bobby are a group that can just take over a game with their speed and athleticism on both ends of the floor. We all know guards win in March. I’m hoping Och has truly developed some killer instinct that we’ve been dying for him to have since he pulled that redshirt and blew our socks off.
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@benshawks08 Good posts. Thanks for expounding on the Russ Rob comparison. I think it’s important to give credit to coaches for players doing well when they demonstrate growth even if it happens later in or after their time under that coach. It is crucial that players find confidence and proficiency. Bobby is showing that. I would worry more if he was struggling from the bench.
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@benshawks08 bro, I’m with you, and I’ve gotten flack for it. He’s too inconsistent and lacks desire. He has accumulated some good games, when we lacked talent. We don’t lack talent now. 22 mpg tops. Mitch 6 mpg, or maybe less.
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@Kcmatt7 said in Let's talk about Bill.....:
I think we’ve seen 2 games and don’t know who will give us the higher ceiling yet. Bobby has looked great, but Juan has been just fine. I think it’ll be interesting to see how the rotation works out when Jalen is back.
I think Juan offers a style of unselfish pure PG play that this team needs when you are playing at least 3 of Ochai, Remy, Wilson and Dave at the same time. Bobby has only been in for stretches. Is he able to play that way consistently if given extended minutes?
Good problems to have.
According to his AAU coach (I think it was AAU and not HS) coach on the Phog Bobby is the kind of kid that will do w/e is asked of him in terms of playstyle. Definitely looks like the staff has mostly asked him to distribute as well.
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@Kcmatt7 said in Let's talk about Bill.....:
I think more than Juan vs. Pettiford, the more important trade off to watch is JCL vs. Braun minutes.
CB is the better overall player. JCL is a really nice bench spark plug piece to have and I hope he is in the 15-20 minutes range.
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@BShark said in Let's talk about Bill.....:
@Kcmatt7 said in Let's talk about Bill.....:
I think more than Juan vs. Pettiford, the more important trade off to watch is JCL vs. Braun minutes.
CB is the better overall player. JCL is a really nice bench spark plug piece to have and I hope he is in the 15-20 minutes range.
Agree, like JCL. And Braun is scrappy, we need him. Not in the Mitch way - Braun is scrappy at the right times, and changes the flow of games. Mitch doesn’t, and never has.
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@Marco said in Let's talk about Bill.....:
@benshawks08 bro, I’m with you, and I’ve gotten flack for it. He’s too inconsistent and lacks desire. He has accumulated some good games, when we lacked talent. We don’t lack talent now. 22 mpg tops. Mitch 6 mpg, or maybe less.
Would never say he lacks desire. If anything he may want it too much…
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After 2 games I would say post play in general is our top overall weakness I see. Mitch is the current backup, enough said. He is however good in certain matchups. It comes down to having a consistent rebounder and rim protector. I think when Self has a dude down low that offenses fear he dials up pressure real well on the perimeter.
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@BeddieKU23 said in Let's talk about Bill.....:
After 2 games I would say post play in general is our top overall weakness I see. Mitch is the current backup, enough said. He is however good in certain matchups. It comes down to having a consistent rebounder and rim protector. I think when Self has a dude down low that offenses fear he dials up pressure real well on the perimeter.
This is what I’ve observed as well. The question is whether he can get the pressure dialed up with just the guards. Dave has shown a little better instances of rim protection this year and at the end of last year. I feel like we are starting to see some double teams in the post to try to get the ball moving for the other team because I think we’ll probably have a speed advantage on the perimeter most games.
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@benshawks08 lol typo, I guess. I meant skill… Wtf? How did that happen? I swear, I didn’t type that…
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Jayballer67 no one saying that Mitch shouldn’t play. Only that he play about 4 or 5 mpg is all - crunchtime minutes, when we badly need that loyal floorburn hustle.
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Loved the steal and bucket breakaways we had against Mich St on a ball reversal.
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Thought Dave struggled defensively against Michigan St. I don’t have higher hopes for his D this season then expected. I think he is who he is on that end. Was hoping he’d rebound in that 7-10 a game range and give us his usual 1 block a game or so average. So far he’s definitely looked a bit more springy on his vertical for whatever that’s worth
