71 fouls and 91 FTs. I want to look at these numbers, go deeper, and figure out how much time this adds to a game.
The average number of fouls per team called last year was around 17 to 18 per game. The lowest whistled team was Michigan at 12.7 fouls per game (fpg). The highest was Morehead State with 24.9 fpg.
I’m going to play out a fake game here. Now last season Xavier averaged 17.4 fpg and Ohio 19.7 fpg. Let’s say in this fake game played last year under the old rules that 30% of the pre bonus fouls (28) were in the act of shooting. Of those shooting fouls, I’ll say the fouled player made 50% of the attempted shots in which they were fouled on. (28 x 0.3 = 8.4 x 0.5 = 4.2 + [4.2 x 2] = 12.6 FTs) . So that’s 13(rounding up from 12.6) pre bonus FTs.
Now in the 1and1 again I’ll use clips of 30% and 50%. (Note: Xavier had 17 fpg last season which means they only committed 3 1and1 fouls in my fake game. Thus making it a total of 9 1and1 fouls.) Of the 1and1 FTs I’ll use a 65% both team avg. on the first shots leading to second shots. (9 x 0.3 = 2.7 shooting fouls and 6.3 non-shooting fouls. 2.7 x .5 = 1.35 +2.7 = 4.05 + [[6.3 x 0.65] x 2] + 2.205 = 14.445) So in this game last year they would have had 14 (rounding down) FTs in the 1and1.
Add the pre bonus with the 1and1 and we get 27 FTs total in this game.
Now with an average of 30 seconds to shoot the first FT and 15 seconds to shoot the second FTs we can figure out how much time is wasted with FTs. (8.4 + 9 = 17.4 total first FTs) (4.2 + 1.35 + 4.095 = 9.645 total second FTs)
17.4 x 30 / 60 = 8.7 or 9 minutes wasted with the first FTs.
9.645 x 15 / 60 = 2.4 or 2 1/2 minutes wasted with second FTs.
An estimated 11 minutes spent this fake game just shooting FTs.
Now if I use the same math as that fake game and apply it to the number of fouls committed in this REAL played game this year using the new rules (hand check, block vs. charge) let us see what we come up with…
Same number for pre bonus FTs. Add 3 more fouls in the 1and1s and we get 19.26 FTs this time around. Then with the double bonus FTs we get 31 more fouls or 62 FTs. This all totals out to be 93.86 FTs. That’s pretty close to the actual number of fouls committed in the game. I’ll use my numbers since I can guess first and second FTAs.
51.4 first FTAs and 42.46 second FTAs.
51.4 x 30 / 60 = 25.7 minutes.
42.46 x 15 / 60 = 10.615 minutes
This all equals out to be 36.315 minutes spent at the FT line!!! Last seasons fake game only had 11 minutes. So they’ve managed to triple the time spent not running the clock.
In conclusion: My main goal was to see how much time was spent shooting FTs. If this kind of whistle blowing is going to occur this season we might as well forget about catching any of our Big Monday games!!
I’m sure our friend JayBate would hypothesize that the new rules were installed by the Shoe Company Complex, ESPN/ABC/CBS basketballopoly, and the Communist USS’NCAA’R so they all can increase the number of TV timeouts which in turn increases their bank accounts thus increasing their power over us.
<note: math can be wrong. All % are estimations.>
