Time For Self To Kill C5
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@KUSTEVE that and those two are still struggling to be fluid on both ends of the floor.
As others have correctly stated, when don’t need 20-30 points per game from the 5 position. What do we need then? Defense, rebounding, and fundamentals. I mentioned it before but I think everyone needs to go back again and watch the Duke 2010 title team. Not a single player on that team that was even remotely as talented as Jahil Okafor back to the basket. Yes I know Zoubeck and Thomas were top 100 recruits as well as the two Plumlees, but none of them were skilled offensively. What they did have is chemistry, hustle, and could rebound well.
HEM, here is the only team to platoon the five spot and win the title. Duke had four guys, we have five guys. So with all due respect, we can win a title IF C5 shows toughness and resilience.
Like Self said on HawkTalk the other night, I too am not willing to sacrifice losses for the possibility that Bragg and/or Cheick improve. We can theorize till the cows come home, but the truth is we have no clue if they will improve this year enough to play 25 - 30 minutes a game.
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@MoonwalkMafia Oh I won’t turn this site into any kind of a contest,. But I also won’t try and just blend in and say yo daddy too, just because I may disagree and don’t stroke someone’s back because I differ on thoughts, then I don’t know what to tell you, I will continue to express and I will say this anyone like it OR if you don’t that’s really not my problem. Once again this is what’s great about America I have the right to voice my opinion freedom of expression no matter how you might think I choose to express it thanks. Their is one VERY HUGE problem here and it gets really really really old, get really really sick and tired of hearing a bunch of arm chair coaches, that think Self is not Coaching correctly, the Answer is simple really simple. Where were all the arm chair coaches from in here when the University had the Coaching vacany? People here think they HAVE THE RIGHT ANSWERS so why are you working where your working IF you are instead of not being the head coach at the University, I mean this get ssooooooooo old, listening to people same thing, while he just continues to win doing it HIS WAY, hmmmm so whats wrong with that picture? Just don’t get it, he is coaching wrong, subbing the wrong way, playing the wrong players BUT yet he continues to win, dam I don’t get that. why is that? I know people think oh we should be winning National championship every 2 or 3 yrs, listen up, it just doesn’t work that way, other teams have something to say about that. Teams that get on a roll, play well for what 3 weekends? Injuries play a part, one bad game and your season is over partner. You wanna talk about how he loses to medicore teams in the tourney, early exits, again injury plays a part, you think these other teams are just gonna lay down when we play them in the tourney? Oh well your Ku your surpose to win, her let us get out of your way, you name the score. Again you got the answers right? then go tell Coach how to run the team- - -I’m sure he would be really happy to listen, hell ya who wouldn’t want to win the Championship every year or every other year, but I got news for ya, you have fans bitching at Coack K at Duke, you got fans bitching at Calipari, it’s not just here. Why? because I don’t try and color what all the people say in here a rosy picture all the time, but you know what? I’m going to continue to post, I’m going to continue to respond, bottom line you don’t like what I have to say just ignore it and move to the next response and I’ll continue to sleep just fine. simple as that, sorry If I don’t agree with everything anyone says here but changing- - - that’s not happening, I will continue to post what I think- - just don’t respond to it simple enough, just gets really old hearing people think they have the perfect solution, comes off like you can do sooooo much better, give me a break. ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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@drgnslayr Thanks as always. I really enjoy this topic. The main reason I enjoy it is because there two very distinct points of view and while we can do our best to speculate, we will never really know for sure. The fact is we are winning. And believe me, I don’t take that lightly.
The best defense for the C5 concept to me is that Self doesn’t believe that any of the five players are really worthy. So it’s a conglomeration by default. That has legs to me. Heck, as @DoubleDD and @jaybate-1.0 noted, so what if it’s never really been done this way. This might end up being better for Kansas.
I was careful in my post at the top to make an argument for deciding on post players, and leaving my opinion until the end. Eliminate my opinion and it could very well be an argument for going with Traylor and Mickelson.
@Texas-Hawk-10 Actually, I’m using C5 as @jaybate-1.0 has. Those 5 players. And I’m sure you saw Bragg start the half and play with Ellis for a good chunk vs. TT. Why do you think Bragg would get exposed, for example? What would be exposed? A nice jump shot, activity, skill? You might be surprised at what you see with Bragg at 20 minutes for a few games in a row. You seem pretty sure of yourself on sticking with C5 the entire season. Can you cite me one NCAA tourney winner that has done it this way? I couldn’t find one. I guess our 5 guys are so bad we can’t play them any significant minutes. Who does that reflect on?
@sfbahawk Yes, on the use of rancor, I should have said “irrespective of” as opposed to “despite all of.” Thanks for the notation. And I do agree with you that stats are always subject to sample size issues. The two times Diallo played over 15 minutes, he had double digit points. But until you see it, you are correct, you’ll never know (referring to your 25 minute deal). I would also suggest that you have no data to show that Diallo wouldn’t do better if given more time a game. While I have two games where he played very well playing over 15 minutes. That all said, we do know what we get from Lucas/Traylor at relatively high minute rates. And it ain’t good.
@DanR THANK YOU – One of the points of my initial post was to do my best to avoid offering an opinion until the last numbered paragraph. You mention sticking with Lucas. Ok – that’s part of my point. If Lucas is the man, then let’s go with Lucas. Again, not my preference, but would we be better operating off who we are instead of hoping Diallo at some point meets Self standards? Your notes on Lucas are terrific info. If we just go with Lucas as the man at the 5, wouldn’t that present a better chance to play our best with Lucas at the 5 in March?
To your “comfortable” comment, Fran Fraschilla referenced the experienced guys today as a “comfortable pair (of) sneakers” to coach Self, and supported Self’s decision on this. He definitely likes Bragg over Diallo.
Question: Do you want KU to play slower and more under control? Is that better with this team?
@wrwlumpy - Alright, what would I have done differently vs. OU? In hindsight, nothing, we won. If we moved back in time, during the game, I would have 1) Focused more on the three point shot in the 2nd half and OT, vs. drive ball, 2) Would have called timeouts and schemed plays to win at the end of the regulation and OT periods, 3) Applied pressure just as Dick Vitale suggested at the end of the 3rd OT, caused some time to run off, and fouled (and if I wasn’t going to foul, I would have done everything possible to instruct my guys to guard vs. what we saw from Selden, getting pushed back inside three point range and Ellis slapping at the ball on a three point shot), 4) I would have found Diallo 15 minutes, and 5) Would have gone small to begin the 2nd or 3rd overtime with Greene instead of Lucas or would have swung in fresh legs (Svi, Greene, Bragg) for the start of the 2nd or 3rd OT to see if we could get an advantage. But again, when we win, all decisions are basically justified for that particular game – the discussion is what are the best decisions moving forward if presented similar options.
@Bwag Thanks … I’ve got an elderly parent who is post-surgery, and my wife’s grandmother (who is 92) is in her last days. Most everyone has been there.
Your rotation is my rotation as well. You’re exactly right … more consistent time on the floor. Mitch Kupchak, the Lakers GM, bemoaned the fact that Kobe was continuing to play big minutes. Why? He said it was impacting the ability to develop the younger players because of the minutes Kobe played.
@KUSTEVE - your first sentence seems eminently correct.
@DinarHawk - Zoubek and the two Plumlees were opposite Singlar. Thomas played the 3 spot, was the starter there. But Zoubek + Plumlees, next to Singlar. We just need to trim two guys off our rotation now. If you look at the NCAA final game box score, as an example, you’ll see that coach K played Zoubek 31 minutes, Singlar 40, and Miles and Mason combined for 12 minutes. In the national semis, Miles played 13 minutes. Mason 8. Zoubeck was 27 minutes. But if you go back farther, the minutes are more what you suggest – the Plumlees combined for 39 minutes in the Elite Eight.
Really, though, I believe Duke had a 4 man post rotation – exactly what I am suggesting. They had Zoubeck, Singlar, Plumlee, and Plumlee.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 Your paragraph beginning with “Self’s strategy” is THE BEST explanation of why Self is doing what he is with the C5 mpg allotments.
The only problem with going to a 4-man rotation, is that whichever 5th and 6th guy you bench, you lose something x 2. All 5 guys are different.
My gentle counterpoint to @HighEliteMajor 's excellent discussion points are that eventhough we are chopping-up the experience gathering by 3 of the C5–> my point is that it is still slowing building up as a mass of experience, en mass. The other point is that this is only game experience, because you know the whole roster is running our stuff hot and heavy in practice.
My 3rd point is that the “constant” is the other 4 starters. They are also judges. They also know if that 5th guy is out of position, or didn’t rotate over on backside help, etc…Or even subtle stuff that most TV fans wont appreciate, like arriving late for a screen, thus screwing up the timing of popping open BG or somebody trying to come off a screen for that 1/2 second window to get a shot off…Notice how even the announcers noticed how Lucas “set a great screen”, which popped open Selden’s dagger 3 late game against OU.
Hey, I have been guilty of blasting Lucas a bit after his MichSt outing, but he can make positive plays…here and there. Same applies to Traylor, but in different settings.
One point of frustration and anger I have is fans lumping Traylor together with Lucas–> they are not the same player. Even if statistical production is almost the same, they are NOT some computer/cyber-generated player. Each is different. Let me voice my gut feeling differently: Traylor plays his ass off with his limited offensive repertoire, while Lucas could play harder, & faster.
Frankly, maybe Self limits the mpg of each of the C5 simply to limit the “bad”. Leave a kid in too long, and he gets exposed or exploited…
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@jaybate-1.0 Your sentence is a true gem: “(Self) makes the opposing coach prepare for all 5, then after a half Self commits to 2 or 3, and the 2 or 3 they handle LEAST well!”
What a way to “disrupt the opponent” before the game has even started…(I saw a VERY puzzled, shellshocked, or rock-shock-&-awe face from Scot Drew of Faylor during their obligatory beatin in AFH, and watch Self put the final nail in Travis Ford’s coffin, as this year’s new wrinkles + The C-Five Platoon will simply be too much for Ford to handle…)
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@HighEliteMajor actually, after re watching part of Duke vs Butler again, it appears Thomas started at the 4 with Singlar at the 3. The three guards, Smith, Scheyer, and Singlar, really carried the load offensively for that team.
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@DinarHawk said:
@HighEliteMajor actually, after re watching part of Duke vs Butler again, it appears Thomas started at the 4 with Singlar at the 3. The three guards, Smith, Scheyer, and Singlar, really carried the load offensively for that team.
Question for ya… after watching the Duke - Butler game, did it appear Zoubeck was getting away with every damn thing? My memory tells me the officials would absolutely not call fouls on that kid, and he was mauling anyone in a black jersey, but I might be wrong.
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@Mikey-P yeah, he did get away with stuff the whole tournament, but the principle still holds true that this year’s team needs toughness, rebounding, and making the simple play at the 5 position, just like that Duke team.
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I happen to completely agree with you surprise, surprise!
I also appreciate your tone on this thread…and good grammar.
One thing none of us has is a crystal ball.
I’m in favor of giving 20 minutes each to Mick & Bragg right away. And Diallo can get 10-15. Without a crystal ball, the only way to know what they can do is to play them real minutes.
We ALREADY KNOW what we’re gonna get from LL and JT. And if we win the national championship with these guys playing major minutes I’ll be sooooooo happy!!! As all Kansas fans will be.
But if we under achieve, again and fall short of at least a F4 w/ LL and JT playing major minutes then I believe most reasonable fans will always wonder what could have been…
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@HighEliteMajor Bragg did start the second half next to Ellis, that’s why I used the qualifier almost exclusively because he does occasionally play next to Ellis. I’ve said numerous times my issues with Bragg at this point in his career, if you want to continue to ignore those statements, that’s your issue not mine. I’m also well aware of the definition of the C5 and considering that Bragg plays predominantly at the 4, is why I think it needs to be changed to C4.
You keep saying you want Self to take a bold strategy, yet you also want Self to revert back to his old ways of playing 8 guys which is the least bold strategy Self can take. Do you actually want Self to make the bold play of continuing to keep the rotation expanded and playing 11 guys regularly and keeping other teams having to prepare for more players and more styles of play KU can throw at them because that is the bold strategy that you want Self to make. You just don’t like the bold strategy because it’s different and unproven. You know what is proven with this group of players? A short rotation and 1st weekend exits.
The bold strategy you want Self to employ is happening now and it’s an expanded rotation that can play multiple styles of offense. This is an unpredictable group and unpredictable groups are hard to prepare for and hard to prepare increases KU’s odds of winning games and championships.
@ralster I don’t want Self to shorten the rotation, I want him to keep it the way it is with 11 guys playing at least 9 minutes per game. I 100% agree with @jaybate-1.0 in regards to making opposing teams prepare for everyone, I’ve been saying pretty much the same thing, just in different words. More diversity in playing styles, the ability to play run and gun up tempo, play grind it out Big 10 style ball, play Self style bad ball just makes KU a very difficult team to prepare for because you don’t know how KU is going to attack you. We assumed KU would run with OU to beat them, but it ended up being bad ball that was most effective against OU.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 excellent point about this team’s depth and unpredictably.
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@HighEliteMajor - I enjoy reading your & kubuckets fellows. I’m no expert, but a fan who dreams of watching my team play good if not great basketball games. Yes, I also mean '07-'08 team, and Pierce’s era. It’s interesting how you observe the same points mentioned above.
#4 - If you watch again, Mason did not even look interested in passing to Bragg. It was very obvious there were 2 TTU players around him. The bounce pass was not the first time he missed. It’s mostly close range plays. That, and Bragg/Diallo was surprised to catch a sudden pass. They need to watch NBA games. Especially the Clippers. Watch how Paul throws anywhere in the air, and Jordan finishes it with authority. Yes, I believe we can achieve this high level play with only Bragg & Diallo.
Yes, we are winning games. But not for long. I’m sorry but our C5 is not a real threat when it comes to Feb. Sure we will win, but will we see development in our C5? Or are they just a part of coach strategy to win games (more likely will be contributed by G3 + Ellis, anyway). I’m really interested with how well our C5 fares compared to other teams. By the end of seasons, these kids will look back…"they have learned the system, defended well, altered shots, grabbed a bunch of rebounds, but… the sad thing is the league. will not draft them. Our C5 needs to watch this video:
- even 5’9’’ can dunk (yea, i took credit from a previous poster - about a 5’9’’ white boy
). So far we can count how many dunks C5 have had - I don’t have stats, but hope @Bwag comes up with one, but I don’t believe they are more than 10.
I hope I don’t offend some of you fans.
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I can’t believe it we agree upon something. Great post couldn’t have typed it any better.
You hit the nail right on the head. Most KU fans want Coach to step outside the box yet apart of them wants to hang onto what he’s always done.
Nice post.
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Thank you by the way for always building a good discussion.
*Take all of that, and then ask yourself – what our best chance to win a national title? Bragg and Diallo improving, or sticking with the low talent players?
Right now I don’t know what to say to answer that correctly, I’m really some where in the grey area of wanting what we have now and wanting change. If the result is a National Championship then obviously having your highest talent on the floor and having those 2 players play at a high level is probably-wait, is the best option we have. I also have this feeling that this crazy system we have going next to Perry is somehow the perfect option for this team to win in March. We don’t know for sure whether the wheels will fall off or not do we?
The net positives of our Core 4 sprinkled in with Greene & Svi has the chance to outweigh the negatives of the C5 almost every night. We’ve spent a lot of time talking about the one glaring weakness for this team but not nearly enough time talking about how this back-court is possibly the best in the Self Era. What if that strength of this team is good enough to mask our 1 deficiency into March. It requires us to believe in Self’s way. I’m somewhere in the middle, I’m not afraid to be content when its working but if it starts becoming unsustainable I’m sure all of us on this board will be the first to react before coach does. And I guess that’s one of your points. You do believe its not sustainable, and you as well as myself want to see Cheick & Carlton play to maximize this teams ceiling.
Even though we are winning, if we don’t react before its too late, it could mean KU doesn’t get what it wants at the end of the season. I get it, I agree.
But do you honestly believe coach will put tantalizing talent before a proven-marginal player(s) he trusts.
If he’s to for-see the future I’m not sure he’s got the kahuna’s to let his freshman play over his seniors. The guy has values that he holds onto, Mari & Lucas have labored and worked their butts off to get a chance to play. He knows they are marginal but he also knows that his freshman just don’t get it yet. At least to him, he’s seeing things from them that are not excusable.
He doesn’t trust them to not make mistakes.
And that’s a bad mentality to take. He has the exact opposite view of Mason & Graham making mistakes. He thinks mistakes for them will have a net positive result in the end. But 1 single mistake by Diallo or Bragg and the mistake is not forgiven. What gives, how do you understand a coaches mind when he’s stubborn. How do Carlton and Diallo learn to play this game if every mistake is under a microscope.
If the future says play the young guys or lose the National Championship then we all know what needs to happen. Tonight should give us further insight in how this team reacts to West Virginia. Will the C5 have one of those games that makes the system sustainable or will the wheels start to get rusty. Time will tell…
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@Texas-Hawk-10 I think part of the argument is that it doesn’t take much to scheme against Lucas / Traylor on defense: play off and clog the lanes, be ready for Traylor drive right.
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@KUSTEVE That is a good summary and I feel the same way. I think most of us would have liked for Self to get Bragg / Diallo more PT. HEM has made some very good points. I do worry that we need the abilities of Bragg and Diallo to win a NC, but Self’s track record speaks for itself (although you can’t help but be worried about our track record of losing early in the tournament…and that is the basis for a lot of the 2nd guessing that goes on here)
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@HighEliteMajor said:
Do you see us winning the national title with Lucas and Traylor as the #2 and #3 minutes guys in the post? That is the crunch question, isn’t it?
Honestly if we continue to improve and play at this high of a level, yes I do. We beat the #2 team in the country with a majority of minutes coming from Lucas and Traylor. They made huge plays all game long and especially in crunch time.
I think Self wanted to play Mick more vs. Tech but the refs were calling a VERY tight game (at least when KU was on D…). He had two fouls in 5 minutes and I fully believe he would have had 4 or 5 by the time he got to 10 minutes. Add that to the fact that Tech was already in the bonus EARLY, you have to put in the guys who can adjust and play without giving the other team free points.
On Diallo, I have been curious for some time if Self tells him to shoot every time he touches it. Or maybe if coach tells him to be aggressive and that is how he has taken it. @HighEliteMajor mentioned the pass out of the post, well maybe that IS why he got pulled. When Diallo is in, he is supposed to be working on his game. As @drgnslayr has pointed out, he certainly doesn’t pass the eye test to help the TEAM win games. Diallo is in to develop. To work on his post moves (maybe not the 18 ft jumpers!). To become the back to the basket scorer.
As good as this team is 1-4, the five spot is at best going to be a role player. That is why we have seen so much of LL and JT. They ARE role players. They play the spot and impact out of it when the opportunity presents itself. Neither forces anything and both make other players look (and feel) better.
It is funny to me how many posters are calling for Self to shorten the bench when in past years the gripe has been that he doesn’t use his talented players on the bench. How many times have people wished that he would keep 10-11 fresh bodies rust free for March, ready to play when the lights come on?
Also, @HighEliteMajor “all he has to do is win 4 games in a row.” Really? Is that all? Sounds so simple! I’m pretty sure you only care about the 6th anyway!
Great work everybody! Nice morning reading for me!
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@benshawks08 Good points. Especially about the short bench complaint in the past. I hope you are right about our ability to win a NC with the C5 (if it stays as is)…but keep in mind that win over OU was an AFH win…
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Yes, we can win with Lucas and Traylor on the floor.
Look at UCONN’s title in 2014 as a prime example. Up against a tough Kentucky team and without any great post players. Their post main presence was DeAndre Daniels… a guy that some say Kansas passed on.
Look at that team and you will realize how much potential Kansas has. UCONN was guard heavy, with Shabazz and Boatright. Those guys made everyone forget about their weak post presence.
This is why we need Frank AND Devonte to step up every game. Frank is, by far, the more consistent, experienced guard, but Devonte really has exceptional potential and just needs to bring in a more aggressive attitudes into games. He tends to play soft until the last couple of minutes.
We get these two playing to their potential, everyone will forget about the post, just like what happened with UCONN.
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The problem with the C5 is that at some point you guess wrong.
At some point by not playing the most talented players the most minutes, you play a lesser player and that player does not play well, they play too long, and you end up in a hole that you cannot escape from.
There will be a game, whether its next week, or next month, or during the tournament, where Lucas simply cannot handle the other team’s big man in the post because he’s too quick and too skilled. On that day, will Self pull him after three minutes, or, given that Lucas has been getting 13 or so minutes per game, will Self play him for 8 or 9 minutes before the fact that he is overmatched becomes blatantly apparent?
Let’s all remember that last season ended with Lucas and Traylor combining for the following line: 39 minutes, 3-7 from the field, 6 points, 15 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 turnover. Some will focus only on that rebound number, which is very good. I look at everything else, but even more than that, I look at the fact that KU basically was dependent on its other four guys to generate offense. It has been well documented by @HighEliteMajor and @BeddieKU23 that KU is better on both ends when Lucas and Traylor sit.
We have been down this road before folks. We walked this road with Brady Morningstar and debated ad nauseam whether Morningstar should play ahead of more talented players because of his absence of mistakes. When it came down to it, what happened? Morningstar’s career ended with a great team falling in the Elite Eight to a upstart VCU team with Morningstar playing 32 minutes and finishing with 2 points on 1-7 shooting, including 0-3 from three. What I remember most about that game is VCU sending help on the Morris twins from Morningstar’s man literally the entire game. They dared Morningstar to beat them and guess what, he was not good enough to do so.
This is where we are going, folks. This team is very good. Final Four good. National title good. But if we insist on Lucas and Traylor, our season will end with Lucas or Traylor being dared to beat some team and they will fall short. In March, you have to make plays to win. Lucas cannot make plays. Traylor cannot make plays. But Bragg can. Cheick can. Mickelson can.
Watch very carefully how Calipari handles this in a couple of weeks. Calipari coaches matchups better than just about every college coach. I guarantee he will attack Lucas and Traylor when they are in the game. He will put them in pick and roll. He will abandon them on defense. He will make them make decisions on offense. He will force the ball into their hands. The game is at AFH so Kentucky likely won’t beat us, but Calipari will show everyone how to beat us, especially away from AFH, where we get a six or seven point boost.
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I’m anxious for that Kentucky game. Have you watched them play this year? Skal has been a major, major disappointment. He plays very soft and non-aggressive. He has NO strength. So it will be up to Poythress to do the damage along with Marcus Lee. There is no Anthony Davis on this team… or Karl-Anthony Towns.
We shall see if Kentucky can dominate our post. Up to now, I just don’t see it, even if we put BG as our 5.
I see this game as a challenge for the guards. A guard game. And then we have a couple of extra swing weapons in Perry and Wayne.
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Great thread, lots of terriffic points by the posters. I would like to throw in my 2c.
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The post by Jesse nails exactly what some of the more analytical guys on here have been saying for a while, its all about the net impact and you can see who has the highest net impact. Not only that but there is so much room for improvement from those guys too based off of their potential.
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I am not set in agreement that we need to shorten the bench and that is solely contingent on playing style. I think we are at our best when we play fast, when we are shooting threes, and even utilizing a soft press. Doing that would require more bodies in order to keep the team fresh so shortening the bench might not play into that style of ball which I would prefer Self used most.
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The argument used most by those that oppose these views is that we are 14-1 and we are winning with LL and JT playing big minutes. Ironically enough, I think our chances at a NC might be better if we had lost the OU game because it might have given us reason to look closer at the rotation if we had lost. Since we won, everyone’s flawed defense of the C5 still holds up. But when we get into the NCAA tournament, we normally have to win 4, maybe 5, tough games in a row. Playing the style we are, many of these games in essense come down to odds that can be simplified as a coinflip (final shot to win, missed three at the buzzer, etc.). Think about our NCAA track record for both wins and losses (Michigan, Kentucky, etc.), its true. I disagree with HEM that we can’t win playing this style because we can, it is possible to flip a coin and get heads 5 times in a row, but the odds aren’t great. The OU game came down to less than a coinflip, they had a 50-something percent free throw shooter at the line which gave us less than 50-50 odds of winning the game at the end of regulation. Fans should not feel great about being in that same situation when the season is on the line in March.
The point that I have been trying to make most of the season is that we can avoid games coming down to a coinflip (or even a 25% loss odds) if we make some small tweaks to the lineup at the 5. I’d much rather win games comfortably by 7-8 points instead of coming down to the wire like the OU game did. The result was the same this time but we may not always be this lucky.
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I don’t think Calipari will just toss it into the post because that is not his team’s strength. But when Lucas is in the game, his man will be screening for Ulis and Murray on just about every possession because Lucas isn’t quick enough to come out 20+ feet from the basket and guard, and both Ulis and Murray have no problem pulling up from three if the big man sits back. If they are hitting those shots, we could be in trouble.
Calipari is very good at making your worst players do things they cannot do. His team is struggling right now, but they almost always pull it together in March because if you play lesser talent, they can punish you, unless you have NBA level players to pick up the slack. But that puts a lot of pressure on Wayne if you aren’t playing the other NBA potential guys (Bragg, Diallo, Greene, Svi).
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I hear what you are saying… and the real threat from Kentucky will be Ulis and Murray, especially on high ball screens.
You think Cheick can guard them out there? I think he would foul out of the game within 2 minutes. Self probably couldn’t pull him quick enough to protect him. Yes… it is that bad.
But the guys who will have to step up on that is our guards, including swing guys. In general, Frank and Devonte do a decent job of getting on top of ball screens. Wayne… Wayne… he has improved quite a bit, but he is still vulnerable to running behind screens. And then our bench, BG and Svi, could get schooled in a game like this.
We shouldn’t let our opponents force unnecessary switches, or create scoring space on high ball screens. If the defense is up to the task, they can make teams pay if they can’t run a perfect high ball screen.
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@justanotherfan But what if you’ve guessed wrong that Bragg and Diallo will show big improvement by March. Sure we can all see they have talent, but we have no idea when that talent will blossom into production. The reason the per possession numbers look the way they do is way more than just small sample size. It’s highly selected sample size. Not by the person doing the math, by Self. He has purposefully put the freshman in when he knows (or at least strongly thinks) they can be successful. When things get tough and against tougher competition, the older more experienced guys go in. Hence, lower numbers. Mentality is the thing statistics always leave out. Momentum building plays, the ability to shake off a mistake and not let it turn into two, making a mistake then making up for it, these are all things that numbers just can’t show. To me, the per possession numbers prove Self has been exceptional at not “guessing wrong.” Let your experienced players struggle, build the confidence of the younger players. This has always been his style. And I like it. Not just because it wins, but because it makes sense to me.
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This is why Diallo and Bragg should have been playing a month ago. You don’t want your first exposure to constant ball screen actions being against a team like Kentucky with an NBA caliber guard like Murray. You want to work out the kinks against lesser teams so that when Kentucky runs that action over and over (and Calipari almost certainly will) your guys are ready to handle it.
You are making the Morningstar argument here. Play him because he is less likely to make mistakes. Look at how much Selby and Johnson make mistakes. They will hurt us if they play more. Oops, VCU isn’t guarding Morningstar at all (same thing OU did with Lucas… hmm) and Morningstar can’t make shots. Oh no, the twins are getting double and triple teamed. Turnovers are mounting. We are falling further behind. Get Brady out of the game! Nope, 32 minutes in the loss. Season over. National championship level talent wasted.
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I think we beat Kentucky by playing experienced basketball. We can’t freak out if they get a small run, and we need to take advantage of our runs and push even harder, trying to freak out a young team on the road.
If we limit Ulis and Murray, I don’t see how we get beat. Neither of these guys are the weapon Hield is.
Otherwise, we just have to play smart basketball. Limit TOs and get our fair share of rebounds. I think we can match up well with UK on the boards.
The “x-factor” is pace. We need to do a better job of playing at a pace that improves our efficiency. We will get a huge taste of that tonight against WV. If we can find our sweet spot, WV doesn’t stand a chance. If we don’t find it… we can easily leave Morgantown with a loss… AGAIN!
Between now and March, I believe our main focus should be on guard play… and mostly to control pace. This also happens with bigs, to get out in transition and look for quick outlet passes.
I value this focus much more than I do dropping everything on this team to focus on getting Cheick ready for March. If he comes along, great. If he doesn’t… we can have our best team since 2008
I advise everyone look for archives of that 2014 championship game. And how UCONN controlled most of the game pace. It is a weapon few ever talk about. It is having a “6th man” on the court at all times. 6 playing 5, an advantage making it hard to lose.
A big part of OUs success relates to them controlling pace. They do a pretty good job of staying at a pace that keeps their efficiency up. When they are off their pace, they suddenly become a very mediocre team.
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@HighEliteMajor" Can you cite me one NCAA tourney winner that has done it this way? I couldn’t find one. I guess our 5 guys are so bad we can’t play them any significant minutes. Who does that reflect on?"
Cole Aldrich.
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@drgnslayr how quickly some forget about about one of the best if not the best x axis team in recent memory. Great guard play is what we need this year.
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What is really amazing is that we do have the best guard tandem in the country! If we don’t take advantage of that potential we deserve to lose in March.
I’m all for Cheick and he is going to be a great one. But right now his offer is “foul’s gold.”
I don’t think people realize what a shift it is to have our team now focus on Cheick. He has to suddenly run with our starting team in practice. That alone should kill this notion of just flipping the switch to Cheick. He will kill our team offense development because he has no experience with Self ball and doesn’t even have experience in the game of basketball. He is pure green wood. Our entire offense will develop in slow motion as the coaches will have to focus on Cheick in team practices. This is where we blow it… big time. Then, suddenly, we see our early season advantage of all that extra polish (thanks partially to WUG) vanish as other teams pass us by. We’ve been there before.
We have a very good team now. A team that could be great in March if we spend our time, energy and focus in the right areas… where we have the most potential. We have more potential developing as a team… not stopping team development to help one player with potential to develop into something.
This is exactly like the issue in education today. Do we lower the bar for everyone and push all students into slow development so the lower students can hopefully improve at the slower pace? Or do we educate at a higher level for all students, and give special assistance to the lower students to help improve them?
Lower the bar for the low, or raise the bar for everyone else?
This is where we are at. Not what you see on the court. We still have to improve considerably to be a contender in March.
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@justanotherfan The same thing could have been said about Russell Robinson playing over Sherron but no one does because we won. Collins was the better offensive player by far and was a decent enough defender to win out overall. But Robinson did things that made other players on that team play better. I think Traylor specifically is a very good comparison for Robinson. I know they play different positions but their role is really quite similar. Play D, move the ball, impact in transition when you can.
I agree with @drgnslayr that the focus needs to be on our guards. We all talk about the NBA potential of Selden and the freshman (including Svi because that’s what he really is this year) but isn’t Graham NBA potential? He’s a 6’2" point guard who is developing a shot, lightning quick, and can pressure the ball on D even against bigger players. Is it because he is skinny? Or has a youthful exuberance that doesn’t fit the business mentality of the league? Frank, I get, he is really 5’10" and just not tall enough with the game he plays to really be highly thought of for the draft. But what gives on DG?
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What we should be paying attention to now, on the court during games, isn’t so much about PT of our post guys.
What we should be paying attention to is looking for additional development in our play, on both sides of the ball.
Our starting group has plenty of experience in D1 and Self ball. That means team practices should be more fruitful than when the starting group is sprinkled with green wood. We should see new things installed and running throughout the season. That would mean we are improving and our upcoming opponents will struggle to properly scout us because we constantly bring new wrinkles to the game, especially in our offense.
That is the way to reach our PEAK at the right time… March!
College basketball has changed so much over the past 20 years. Scouting was pretty much a joke back then. It was hard for schools to properly scout other teams. Now… because of technology and networks, and schools investing quite a bit in their A/V departments, scouting has come on big time. This is part of the issue on why college basketball scores have dropped. Teams are better prepared going into games.
If we continue to develop wrinkles in our offense all year, we keep our opponents guessing to some degree. They can’t really prepare for us as well and it will show in the results.
This is easily the #1 problem for Kansas in March in recent years. We bring a team of puppies into March, and they not only freak out, but have such limited team development that our opposition easily has us properly scouted and they are able to compete with us like apples-to-apples even though we are a 1 or 2 seed and they are a 8 or 9 seed.
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Let’s back up a minute and compare the two out of HS.
Russell Robinson was the #27 overall recruit (#7 PG).
Jamari Traylor was the #141 overall recruit (#27 PF).
Russell Robinson was a decidedly better HS player than Jamari Traylor.
Yes, Sherron was better than RussRob, but Sherron was a McD’s AA and a potential NBA player. RussRob was a step below that. Jamari is about two steps below that level. There’s a pretty healthy gap between RussRob and Jamari in overall talent, even considering the difference in positions.
RussRob was a very solid starting level player at KU. Traylor is, at best, a backup. Also, note that Self played Sherron almost as much as RussRob. As a freshman, Sherron played 22 minutes a game to Russell’s 28. As a sophomore, Sherron played 24 minutes a game to Russell’s 27. They were both good players and both netted starter level minutes.
We have a completely different situation here.
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Link to Jesse’s article on “Who has been the best complement to Perry? You Decide”
LOTS of charts!!
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10 Freshmen have started at KU since the Ring ceremonies began. Not all of them have been Big Men. All had learning curves higher than the last two Big names that have come to KU, Alexander and Diallo. Self will play and start Freshmen that have an understanding of what is needed to play for Bill Self. I’ll take that stubbornness every day from Coach. KU has the reputation as “Big Man U.” Why isn’t your ideal coach at Kentucky playing his highly ranked Big man? There is a Vitriolic attitude that stirs the pot of the Bucket boys and girls, when one states that his position is “Unassailable,” and the continuing use of the word “Stupid” when referring to a decision that Coach has made.
Two years ago it was the blindness of not playing Greene. Last year the blindness of not playing Alexander. I really do fear the attacks next year when Perry and Wayne are gone. I feel that someone writes their certain arguments and then giggles when the expected response’s come.
My own response…
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@wrwlumpy a friend of mine went to a Self leadership talk. Self was asked if we are still known for being big Man U and he said we still do the same “stuff” we did when coach manning was here.
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@justanotherfan Jamari has been a starter on a team that one the big 12 and got a high seed in the tournament. Bragg and Diallo are getting similar minute/gm numbers to the rest of the post players not named Ellis. So I guess we could call that “starter” level. So it is not completely different. As I said it is not an exact comparison because they are different positions and different players but their ROLE is similar. They bring experience and energy to their team NOT SCORING. Russ Rob shot 30% from three allowing defenders to sag off of him. He got most of his points driving and in transition (mostly brought on by steals by Chalmers).
I am just trying to give Traylor some credit here. He and the rest of C5 just aren’t going to be stars on this team. Yet he continues to play his heart out and make big plays and some say BENCH HIM! He has his flaws as they all do, but he CAN impact plays and games in a positive way. They all can. Therefore, give them all an opportunity to do it!
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@benshawks08 I would add that Russ Rob caused many of the turnovers Chalmers got by his tight defense on the passer. Which allowed Mario’s terrific instincts and long arms to take over for the steal. They were a great tandem on the defensive end. Pressure on the passer is something that has been missing until this year with Frank & Devonte.
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@HighEliteMajor very strong posts and I can’t say I outright disagree about trimming the post rotation. However, I’m not as convinced as you that keeping C5 hurts the chances of winning the championship. To state the obvious, this team is so much more than the 5 spot. Does it limit the highest possible ceiling? Probably, but not by much. We’re talking 2 months out, and betting on freshmen. One of whom has a fouling problem (keeping the rotation fresh because of foul potential is another discussion, but one worth having). If this were a multi-season plan than absolutely go with the freshmen, but it’s a much shorter timeline than that. And hedging risks with C5 also significantly raises the floor. That could save our butts in March. And despite having a rotating 5 spot, the team has functioned (for the most part) like a well-oiled machine. You have to look at the competition: if we keep playing C5 what team do you suggest has a higher ceiling that takes the ring instead? Plenty of teams have recently won the ring with a solid (like C5) but not awesome center playing major minutes. As you’ve stated, we have the best collection of backcourt talent in the nation. One of the best power forwards in the nation. Sometimes when you’re day-trading, the hot hand is the way to go. And with a group this seasoned, I think chemistry and other factors are less of an issue than you might think. The rest of the team has appeared to adjust for rotating centers just fine. Just my opinion on this, but currently I’m OK with C5. I’ll keep re-evaluating throughout conference play.
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@benshawks08 Mari knows his role, the rest of the team have spoken highly of him too
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@barney Definitely AGREE on that!
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@Crimsonorblue22 IMO, As far as the vets, I think you will continue to see Mari when the opposing bigs do a lot of screening causing switches. He can cover small players much better than the other 4. LL is the choice when strength is needed. Hunter more against running teams. I think you will see the frosh play more & more in games where they are not a negative with turnovers and blown assignments. Close games not so much.
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Am I reading those charts right? Cheick and Perry have only had 34 possessions together? That isn’t enough possessions to determine anything. A couple of shots made or missed completely changes the results.
Oh yes… even on this article it says:
“Haley note: Ellis and Diallo haven’t played together enough yet for the numbers to mean anything.”
So we can’t really support Cheick’s stats yet.
But I do think he needs to pick up a few more minutes so he can be properly evaluated. Just not sure I would want it to be in crunch time yet.
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@drgnslayr definitely not when the game is on the line.
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Very true.
But we will have some games, especially at home, where Cheick should see more minutes. This is the time to scream “fire” for Cheick, not now. Not hours before we go through the grind at WV…
I read on another site… a poster saying how important it was to start Cheick in the WV game. I considered that person a troll… hoping Kansas was dumb enough to do it. They would rob Cheick so blind, he might not even have his jockstrap left on him after a couple of minutes of facing high-pressure steals from the master thieves at WV.
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@justanotherfan I keep thinking Morningstar in all this like you. The Peter Principle.
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@HighEliteMajor You make great points, a very solid post and logic about why KU should tighten its rotation up. Im not refuting any of your points or your logics at all. I just have one question that I dont believe you addressed in your post. That is, Who should be left out of the C5 rotation?
If Coach Self picks Lucas to sit, we are too light down low. If Self picks 'Mari to sit, we are down on the intangibles he brings, and defense. If Self picks Mick, we are down on added outside shooting, pick n roll defense and shot blocking length. There is no right answer here and any choice but keeping C5 together unto the breach could have just as much negative impact as positive.
I mean, unless Bragg and Diallo gain 20lbs each and make a huge jump in progress, which isnt going to happen this season, we have to keep going with what is working. C5 is giving us a nightly double double in production. Cant refute that. C5 is causing opposing coaches to have to game plan for 5 guys at one spot instead of one.
I have zero in game experience and zero coaching experience but I would think that it would be harder to game plan for 5 different guys. Am I right? Ok technically thats two questions now…C5 is not Joel Embiid but they are getting the job done. KU is the best team in the country right now. Barring unforeseen circumstances, they will be the best team in March too. C5 does have the added advantage of giving our bigs a break, less risk for injury and all that.
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@Lulufulu I’m on the same page as you. By playing all of them, we have a mental and physical advantage. Especially because Bill can gameplan for it. Because we are so deep, Bill can wait until a certain matchup happens and exploit it. Other teams have to rest big guys and we can pounce on that. The moment another team puts in a backup big that weighs a buck twenty five like Bragg or Diallo, boom they’re in. The second a 7’6 giant is in, Landen is at the scorers table ready to move him out of the paint. How about at 6’9 mismatch guy? We just unhitch the Traylor. What can you throw at us that we cannot handle? I don’t think of this as inhibiting our players. I actually think of it more as putting them in a position to succeed. We don’t ask any of these guys to do something they aren’t capable of. And so you’ve noticed LL and JT and HM make some truly great plays this year, and negate many of the bad ones we had grown accustomed to the past two seasons.
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@KUSTEVE I am reminded of how T Taylor was thrown under the bus for three 1/2 years until the light finally lit for him & he was one of the best we have ever had for his final three months. Who is to say that we won’t see the light finally light for our C5 or some of them…Geez…give them a break!
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@Bill-Self Not sure why you chose to ask that I “give them a break”. I certainly “give them a break” a lot more than most on here. Perhaps you missed my first post:
"He looks for reasons to play Jamari and LL, and he looks for reasons to not play Hunter, Diallo, and Bragg. I definitely think Jamari is up there in the team hierarchy as a 5th year senior. He is probably used by Self as an example to the younger players of hard work and defense translating to minutes. If he didn’t play Jamari, all those speeches he made recognizing Jamari for everything he has overcome to the young guys would look a little silly. Self hates being beat on the boards, and he puts in LL when he thinks he needs size. He doesn’t need Hunter’s scoring ability, and he considers LL a better rebounder. He doesn’t play Diallo and Bragg because they aren’t part of the team hierarchy - thy’re still outsiders…rookies that have to prove themselves…AND we’re in the hunt for a national title, and he simply won’t take losses to develop these guys.
I’m like dragonslayer on this - it’s hard for me to question the results …number 1 in the nation should give you lots of leeway to run the team as you see fit. That doesn’t mean HEM is wrong- the numbers are pretty clear. But teams aren’t always about numbers. There are pecking orders formed on every team, and I think Jamari and LL are higher on the team pecking order than their numbers show. Just my opinion- I have no empirical proof, so please take it as such."
