Time For Self To Kill C5
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I like your explanation better than mine! Great job!
Another point… with our current C5… how do teams scout our 5? Which 5? And how do they make a plan to attack our 5 if they don’t know which one will get the minutes?
Scouting is huge. In our league, it helps tighten up league play and makes our conference race very very interesting.
And in March… I think scouting is the key to winning out. Doesn’t get talked about enough. We often lose to lower teams. I give them credit less for hitting a big shot at the buzzer and more for knowing how to play us for 40 minutes.
Our C5 offers vagueness… a potential strength never realized in typical analysis!
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@Texas-Hawk-10 Well stated. Personally I think #6 is a bit too far out there for a pilgrim to speak. Stats cant’ gauge heart/chemistry like @Crimsonorblue22 says & I believe Carlton or Chieck will only get there after they’ve been under the gun for awhile, But I don’t think Self will sacrifice a loss on the road to get them more minutes. Like slayr speculates-they should get more min at home vs some lesser opponents, but not on the road risking defeat.
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@HighEliteMajor said:
History is a good indicator of what it takes to win a national title.
A Few History Defying Rings:
• UCLA winning with no starter over 6-4
• Texas Western winning with all African American starting five.
• UConn winning without a single OAD in the OAD stack era.
• Michigan winning a ring with Fisher after firing Frieder before the start of March Madness.
Self needs to make The Bold Choice
I am always for the right choice, not the bold one. But if you want bold, then staying with C5 is the ONLY bold choice Self can make at the 5. A five man rotation at the five is unprecedented in my recollection. Reducing the rotation, be it right, or wrong, is the safe play flowing from conventional wisdom.
I think until someone finds a way to beat C5, C5 stays.
But Self is once again ahead of most on this issue.
Self has committed to C5 the first half and C2 or C3 the second.
It is maddeningly cunning.
He makes the opposing coach prepare for all five, then after a half Self commits to 2 or 3, and the 2 or 3 they handle least well!
My guess?
Other coaches begin copying him ASAP!
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" It is flat silly to sit this kid 50 of 55 minutes vs. OU and to play him, what, 3 minutes against Texas Tech."
I agree… he should get a few more minutes just to make sure he stays hungry for more. Helps keep him interested while gaining little bits of real game experience.
I just don’t see him getting major minutes in big games within the next week or so… and maybe not all season. He will have to make a huge update to his game to warrant that.
We (I see ‘we’ because it definitely includes me) all are very quick to make major changes in hopes to find big gains. It just doesn’t work that way on Self’s level. He’s paid millions of dollars and can’t afford to have a major dip in his popularity. His popularity is largely tied to his winning success. If he gambles away wins, he gambles away his popularity. If he loses his popularity his job changes completely. Then he goes from a premiere coach to an average coach that no one cares if he is thrown under the bus. When he makes a big move, especially during league play, he better feel confident in the results. That is what I mean by “risk/reward.” It just isn’t there yet with Cheick because he completely fails the eye test.
And the results can be devastating. If anything happens now and KU goes on a losing streak… fans will be looking for a reason and a person to flog. That is just the way it is in sports. Self isn’t going to give them that reason. We already know from last year. He was warned a million times on some of that BAD BALL stuff and he didn’t react. He played it through and we accepted mediocrity. It wasn’t a great situation, but it is unlikely anything was going to save that season. We just didn’t have all the right pieces and with too much inexperience.
Devonte Graham is a huge part of our success this year. Everyone is focusing on Frank and Wayne… but Devonte is playing some pretty good ball sometimes and when he plays well we kick ass. No one can steal balls on this team like Devonte can, and he cashes them in at the other end.
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@drgnslayr How do you scout …
#1 “Guys, when Lucas or Traylor are in, their defender goes level 5 help (or whatever the team says to designate help levels – the highest rate).” Why would any team respect either player with the ball? This allows opposing defenders that guard either one to impact our other players (such as Ellis, which might explain a little the offensive per possession discrepancies)
#2 “When Lucas or Traylor are on the floor, play loose with zero close out outside of 8 feet.” This is self explanatory. Would you ever close out on either guy shooting?
More numbers:
To put the above numbers into perspective, we score 37% more points with Diallo paired with Ellis than Traylor, 31% more with Bragg/Ellis than Traylor/Ellis, and 27% more with Mick/Ellis than Traylor/Ellis.
On defense, we give up 21.4% less points per possession with Diallo/Ellis, 13.8% less with Mick/Ellis, and 9.5% less with Bragg/Ellis vs. our supposed best post defender, Landen Lucas.
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@jaybate-1.0 “I think until someone finds a way to beat C5, C5 stays.”
Would you be happy if it was Mark Turgeon that figured out how to beat C5 in the Elite 8 with Diamond Stone? Or LSU with Ben Simmons in the Sweet 16? Or whatever?
Project – look into the future – what do you see?
My crystal ball sees one thing for certain. Lucas and Traylor playing exactly the way they play now.
I will also acknowledge that we could shock the world and win the title playing C5. I’m not liking the odds. You?
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I just don’t think Cheick has enough minutes with Perry to make any numbers stick.
His play on the court is just downright painful to watch. It goes way beyond “eye test.”
But the good news is that he is improving rapidly. Will it be enough for this season? I really don’t know.
I think, as of today, there is a 95% chance Cheick will wear a Kansas uniform next year. He will be a monster from Day 1 next year.
You know… if we were just a mediocre team this year I would be a lot more open to making big changes right now. But we are a pretty good team with great potential this spring, with or without Cheick. That makes me react more conservative now. We have plenty to lose by taking big risks now.
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Did anyone actually watch the last ten-ish minutes of the Tech game?
Definitely slower pace with Lucas in, but I’d say we played more under control with Lucas in the game than with either Bragg or Diallo (and definitely without Greene flying around).
The quarter of the game where you WIN, net production doesn’t matter.
Tied 44-44. What did Lucas do?
10:03 Lucas post layup
8:52 Lucas screen for Mason made 3
8:31 Lucas boxout, fouled on defensive rebound
8:10 Lucas screen on Svi missed 3
6:02 Lucas assist on Selden jam
5:04 Lucas screen for Mason made 3
3:20 Lucas bounce pass to SVI who missed the dunk, made 1 FT
2:25 Lucas screen for Selden’s made 3
1:42 Lucas ssist/lob for Ellis jam
On Devonte’s layup at 1:08 Lucas screened Selden’s guy and Selden would have had an easy dunk if Devonte needed to dish of the ball. By that point the game was won.
Lucas got scored on a couple times in the 2-4 minute range, but other than that, I understand why Self is comfortable with Lucas out there. He knows exactly where he’s supposed to be.
Until Diallo figures that out, it’s going to be Lucas.
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@drgnslayr Fyi, Jason King has posted last week he thought, regardless, that Diallo was gone after the season.
And I guess I disagree a bit on the eye test. I just see developing freshman.
Did you see vs. TT when he didn’t shoot when he got the ball, when he passed it around crisply?
I am very interested in your opinion. You are very articulate in your defense of C5.
Do you see us winning the national title with Lucas and Traylor as the #2 and #3 minutes guys in the post? That is the crunch question, isn’t it?
@Texas-Hawk-10 i don’t suggest dumping C5 for C2. What I suggest is sitting Traylor and never playing him (save a last minutes switching D on the perimeter). He’s easily the worst player. Going a four man post rotation of Ellis, Diallo, Bragg, and Mick. Using Lucas as perhaps a 5 minute guy here and there.
Do we appreciate the concept of opportunity cost, chemistry, cohesiveness, style of play – any of that?
It is just such a simplistic statement to say " … and if one of them happens to catch fire in a game, then they can play more minutes in that individual game, and then go back to the committee the next game."
Kansas, C5 – jack of all trades, master of none. A patchwork quilt that has a high risk of being pulled apart at the seams.
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@HighEliteMajor How much does Diallo play at the time? Something around 5-8 minutes. No problem with extrapolating that. What is the minimum number of minutes that Diallo has to play to make your conclustion meaningful. How about 1, if not that 2. Admit it, you have no data to give any approximation of what he would do with 25 minutes. Not to be too picky but what does “despite all of the rancor for Traylor or Lucas” mean? You do know what rancor means? Obviously not.
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@HighEliteMajor Hey, now that you’re back, how did coach do against OU? What things would you have done differently?
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@BeddieKU23 What you quoted from Haley’s note “but those are likely sample-size flukes. And even if they weren’t, they have nothing to do with him.” invokes that same problem that I pointed out about HEM’s analysis. There is no data quoted by anyone to show that Hunter (or Diallo) that has enough sample size to be relevant. I would like to see Hunter and Diallo play more myself, but that case is not made by any numbers I have seen.
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@Bwag No, I could dunk as a Senior at 6’4", but I too started with a volleyball.
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Play Mickelson more…if he is able to get comfortable and quit feeling he needs to make world saving moves that lead to fouls, he stabilizes by not needing a world saving move in his limited playing time. Heck, sit him if he gets in to Foul trouble, just like was done with Selden when he does. That opens up opportunities on the back end for depth.
Continue to get the Bragg and Diallo time as they grow. Use substitutions to coach on the bench and send them back in for their allottment as the light in their eyes grows.
Spot minutes for Traylor/Lucas. They are a safety blanket and a wet one at that despite what your eyes tell you. Lucas is at .38 Rb/min versus Hunters .3/min. Over 10-11 minutes of playing time, that gets Lucas one more rebound than Hunter. In that 10 minute of playing time, Hunter will on average blow out the rest of the stat lines which includes Blocks, (.13 HM v .01 LL / .06 JT), Steals nearly twice the rate for Hunter than LL and JT, fewer turnovers again half the rate as LL/JT).
Hunter is the most efficient of our bigs (EFF .71/min v CD - .65, LL - .63, CB- .56 and our worst overall efficient player in the C5 JT-.48 -not quite twice as bad as HM but nearing).
Rotation:
at the 5: Start - Mickelson / Sub - Diallo at the 4: Start - Perry / Sub - Bragg
Little mix and match at will with back stop of LL at the 5/ JT at the 4.
And welcome back @HighEliteMajor…hope all in the family are doing well now.
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@wrwlumpy I can touch the net.
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@DanR I agree about Landon, especially at crunch time. He has 4 other guys that can score-he needs a big that knows his role , rebounds, sets proper screens, & understands the correct placement on the floor. The last of which, Carlton or Chieck are too overwhelmed to yet comprehend.
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@globaljaybird Except he barely rebounds at a better rate than Mickelson. 1 more rebound for every 10-11 minutes of playing time. Hardly impactful when you consider, in those 10-11 minutes, Mickelson will have maybe blocked a shot, gotten a steal and/or an assist, and had a fewer turnover.
Maybe with a little more consistent time on the floor, we won’t be in that close game because as stats seem to indicate, overall efficiency on Offense and Defense are greater. Don’t let it become a game. Substitute as necessary, like we do when Selden gets 2-3 fouls, bringing in our least efficient players only as extreme backstop/extreme match-up players.
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@HighEliteMajor If Traylor is removed from the picture, it is a C2 or C3 because Carlton Bragg is not part of the 5. He subs almost exclusively for Ellis which puts him at the 4 and not part of the C5 which should really be called the C4 because it’s 4 guys manning the low post spot.
In wedding ceremonies, one of the common things you see is the pastor talking about how 3 strands of rope are stronger than 2. You see this metaphor used a lot for team building as well. This metaphor also applies to the low post position for KU. The collective 4 guys that man that position are better as 4 strands of rope than removing one and making it 3 strands.
If you only play Traylor in end game situations, he hasn’t gotten into the flow of the game, isn’t adjusted to how the refs call the game, isn’t adjusted to how the opposing team is playing and will look horrible. None of those guys have shown they’re good enough to play 10-15 minutes over the years, this year they’re all playing 10-15 minutes and KU is playing much better this year than at any point in the past two seasons.
If you start playing ANY of the post guys except for Ellis over 15 minutes on a consistent basis, they get exposed significantly and that’s exactly what will happen if the current post rotation is shortened on a permanent basis.
KU does not win a national title by shortening the post rotation and exposing a significant weakness even more than it already is.
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@HighEliteMajor you have NO CLUE. I can very easily see us winning the national title very easily with EXACTLY the way the C-5 is right now, thanks. Like Texas Hawk says right now at this point Cheick is our worst option possible,you want to put him in to say we ll he needs playing time? you earn playing time by how you show in practice, are you there in practice. I do believe has a better feel about how you think or anyone else think Cheick is doing. Whats silly is if the kid is not cutting it in practice time why the hell you going to reward him in game time? You know what though? that’s whats great about America you have freedom of expression, freedom of speech, and if you don’t like my responses to your posts then buddy I don’t know what to tell you. Just as you tell me maybe your threads aren’t for me- - -well you see maybe my responses aren’t for your just keep scrolling when you see my response, problem solved. you got your opinion which is you right as well as I’ve got the right to my opinion so thanks for your feed back have a great night ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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@HighEliteMajor I’m loving the odds thanks for asking
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@sfbahawk don’t question what he says, he doesn’t like that, it’s best you just try an fit in lol, don’t rock the boat lol. ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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I never can understand why persons want to shorten the bench? The excuse is always the same well it’s always been done this way.
Well College Basketball is changing by leaps and bounds. What worked yesteryear may not work in today’s game.
I mean why go with a short bench when you don’t have too? Is the answer cohesion? Hogwash these kids play with and against each every day. You want to destroy cohesion and team chemistry then start sitting kids and tell them were not going to play you unless we just absolutely have too. Then we expect you to play like you could be starter. Huh?
KU just won a tough road game and coach went to the bench early and often. Could the margin of victory have been bigger sure. Just like Selden could’ve not started out shooting o for 5 or 6 from three land. Bottom line KU won and they didn’t have to kill the starters to do it.
I don’t know about you but I’m tired of heading into conference play with a worn out and injured team. I say Coach play the Inglorious Bastards and play Svi and Greene has much as you can. Besides I’m becoming a solid believer that KU plays best when you give coach many options pushing him to think outside the box.
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"You are very articulate in your defense of C5.
Do you see us winning the national title with Lucas and Traylor as the #2 and #3 minutes guys in the post? That is the crunch question, isn’t it?"
I always appreciate your posts. You have great basketball instincts and insights. And I am careful not to go over the top being too critical on your concepts because dang if you won’t prove me wrong!!!
I mean this with all sincerity… you are one of the few people I know I would trust my kids with your coaching. I know you would build great fundamentals in them.
I respect that you push harder for change than anyone in here, and you back it up with well-thought posts.
I am just going with Self on this one (so far) because I can’t attend practices and get to know the guys. I believe Self is trying to take the best path for pushing Cheick into the most development. Maybe that means starving him of PT minutes to build his appetite to develop quicker. He should have a sense of urgency. I don’t know that much about his culture from Mali. But I have had a pretty good taste of several African countries and having a sense of urgency isn’t usually a common personal trait. This is not a race thing. From what I understand Cheick is one constant energy flow with lots of hustle. But right now… it is 8:30pm. Is he in a gym somewhere working on his game until midnight? That is what it is going to take to give him D1 game this season.
There is gray area in coaching… but not that often. I am thinking Self’s current decision to limit his minutes is pretty obvious to Self. And we don’t have enough things to support Cheick getting big minutes right now. That could change quickly. And it depends only on Cheick. He needs to be studying plays, watching tape, work on his strength, work on his post moves, dribbling, passing, rebounding… setting screens. Pretty much the entire game of basketball started for him just a few weeks ago. Everything he did before that was either very little real technique, or techniques that build bad habits that have to change now.
I don’t think any of us can really comprehend the learning curve he must perform at to really be an asset to Kansas basketball THIS YEAR! This goes way beyond his extremely high potential. Repetition, repetition, repetition… Work… work… work…
Keep up the push. I’m not convinced yet, but I am at least starting to think about it more.
I am okay with Cheick getting a few more minutes. But he needs to reduce his fouling and mucking up both sides of the ball.
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He looks for reasons to play Jamari and LL, and he looks for reasons to not play Hunter, Diallo, and Bragg. I definitely think Jamari is up there in the team hierarchy as a 5th year senior. He is probably used by Self as an example to the younger players of hard work and defense translating to minutes. If he didn’t play Jamari, all those speeches he made recognizing Jamari for everything he has overcome to the young guys would look a little silly. Self hates being beat on the boards, and he puts in LL when he thinks he needs size. He doesn’t need Hunter’s scoring ability, and he considers LL a better rebounder. He doesn’t play Diallo and Bragg because they aren’t part of the team hierarchy - thy’re still outsiders…rookies that have to prove themselves…AND we’re in the hunt for a national title, and he simply won’t take losses to develop these guys.
I’m like dragonslayer on this - it’s hard for me to question the results …number 1 in the nation should give you lots of leeway to run the team as you see fit. That doesn’t mean HEM is wrong- the numbers are pretty clear. But teams aren’t always about numbers. There are pecking orders formed on every team, and I think Jamari and LL are higher on the team pecking order than their numbers show. Just my opinion- I have no empirical proof, so please take it as such.
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@KUSTEVE that and those two are still struggling to be fluid on both ends of the floor.
As others have correctly stated, when don’t need 20-30 points per game from the 5 position. What do we need then? Defense, rebounding, and fundamentals. I mentioned it before but I think everyone needs to go back again and watch the Duke 2010 title team. Not a single player on that team that was even remotely as talented as Jahil Okafor back to the basket. Yes I know Zoubeck and Thomas were top 100 recruits as well as the two Plumlees, but none of them were skilled offensively. What they did have is chemistry, hustle, and could rebound well.
HEM, here is the only team to platoon the five spot and win the title. Duke had four guys, we have five guys. So with all due respect, we can win a title IF C5 shows toughness and resilience.
Like Self said on HawkTalk the other night, I too am not willing to sacrifice losses for the possibility that Bragg and/or Cheick improve. We can theorize till the cows come home, but the truth is we have no clue if they will improve this year enough to play 25 - 30 minutes a game.
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@MoonwalkMafia Oh I won’t turn this site into any kind of a contest,. But I also won’t try and just blend in and say yo daddy too, just because I may disagree and don’t stroke someone’s back because I differ on thoughts, then I don’t know what to tell you, I will continue to express and I will say this anyone like it OR if you don’t that’s really not my problem. Once again this is what’s great about America I have the right to voice my opinion freedom of expression no matter how you might think I choose to express it thanks. Their is one VERY HUGE problem here and it gets really really really old, get really really sick and tired of hearing a bunch of arm chair coaches, that think Self is not Coaching correctly, the Answer is simple really simple. Where were all the arm chair coaches from in here when the University had the Coaching vacany? People here think they HAVE THE RIGHT ANSWERS so why are you working where your working IF you are instead of not being the head coach at the University, I mean this get ssooooooooo old, listening to people same thing, while he just continues to win doing it HIS WAY, hmmmm so whats wrong with that picture? Just don’t get it, he is coaching wrong, subbing the wrong way, playing the wrong players BUT yet he continues to win, dam I don’t get that. why is that? I know people think oh we should be winning National championship every 2 or 3 yrs, listen up, it just doesn’t work that way, other teams have something to say about that. Teams that get on a roll, play well for what 3 weekends? Injuries play a part, one bad game and your season is over partner. You wanna talk about how he loses to medicore teams in the tourney, early exits, again injury plays a part, you think these other teams are just gonna lay down when we play them in the tourney? Oh well your Ku your surpose to win, her let us get out of your way, you name the score. Again you got the answers right? then go tell Coach how to run the team- - -I’m sure he would be really happy to listen, hell ya who wouldn’t want to win the Championship every year or every other year, but I got news for ya, you have fans bitching at Coack K at Duke, you got fans bitching at Calipari, it’s not just here. Why? because I don’t try and color what all the people say in here a rosy picture all the time, but you know what? I’m going to continue to post, I’m going to continue to respond, bottom line you don’t like what I have to say just ignore it and move to the next response and I’ll continue to sleep just fine. simple as that, sorry If I don’t agree with everything anyone says here but changing- - - that’s not happening, I will continue to post what I think- - just don’t respond to it simple enough, just gets really old hearing people think they have the perfect solution, comes off like you can do sooooo much better, give me a break. ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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@drgnslayr Thanks as always. I really enjoy this topic. The main reason I enjoy it is because there two very distinct points of view and while we can do our best to speculate, we will never really know for sure. The fact is we are winning. And believe me, I don’t take that lightly.
The best defense for the C5 concept to me is that Self doesn’t believe that any of the five players are really worthy. So it’s a conglomeration by default. That has legs to me. Heck, as @DoubleDD and @jaybate-1.0 noted, so what if it’s never really been done this way. This might end up being better for Kansas.
I was careful in my post at the top to make an argument for deciding on post players, and leaving my opinion until the end. Eliminate my opinion and it could very well be an argument for going with Traylor and Mickelson.
@Texas-Hawk-10 Actually, I’m using C5 as @jaybate-1.0 has. Those 5 players. And I’m sure you saw Bragg start the half and play with Ellis for a good chunk vs. TT. Why do you think Bragg would get exposed, for example? What would be exposed? A nice jump shot, activity, skill? You might be surprised at what you see with Bragg at 20 minutes for a few games in a row. You seem pretty sure of yourself on sticking with C5 the entire season. Can you cite me one NCAA tourney winner that has done it this way? I couldn’t find one. I guess our 5 guys are so bad we can’t play them any significant minutes. Who does that reflect on?
@sfbahawk Yes, on the use of rancor, I should have said “irrespective of” as opposed to “despite all of.” Thanks for the notation. And I do agree with you that stats are always subject to sample size issues. The two times Diallo played over 15 minutes, he had double digit points. But until you see it, you are correct, you’ll never know (referring to your 25 minute deal). I would also suggest that you have no data to show that Diallo wouldn’t do better if given more time a game. While I have two games where he played very well playing over 15 minutes. That all said, we do know what we get from Lucas/Traylor at relatively high minute rates. And it ain’t good.
@DanR THANK YOU – One of the points of my initial post was to do my best to avoid offering an opinion until the last numbered paragraph. You mention sticking with Lucas. Ok – that’s part of my point. If Lucas is the man, then let’s go with Lucas. Again, not my preference, but would we be better operating off who we are instead of hoping Diallo at some point meets Self standards? Your notes on Lucas are terrific info. If we just go with Lucas as the man at the 5, wouldn’t that present a better chance to play our best with Lucas at the 5 in March?
To your “comfortable” comment, Fran Fraschilla referenced the experienced guys today as a “comfortable pair (of) sneakers” to coach Self, and supported Self’s decision on this. He definitely likes Bragg over Diallo.
Question: Do you want KU to play slower and more under control? Is that better with this team?
@wrwlumpy - Alright, what would I have done differently vs. OU? In hindsight, nothing, we won. If we moved back in time, during the game, I would have 1) Focused more on the three point shot in the 2nd half and OT, vs. drive ball, 2) Would have called timeouts and schemed plays to win at the end of the regulation and OT periods, 3) Applied pressure just as Dick Vitale suggested at the end of the 3rd OT, caused some time to run off, and fouled (and if I wasn’t going to foul, I would have done everything possible to instruct my guys to guard vs. what we saw from Selden, getting pushed back inside three point range and Ellis slapping at the ball on a three point shot), 4) I would have found Diallo 15 minutes, and 5) Would have gone small to begin the 2nd or 3rd overtime with Greene instead of Lucas or would have swung in fresh legs (Svi, Greene, Bragg) for the start of the 2nd or 3rd OT to see if we could get an advantage. But again, when we win, all decisions are basically justified for that particular game – the discussion is what are the best decisions moving forward if presented similar options.
@Bwag Thanks … I’ve got an elderly parent who is post-surgery, and my wife’s grandmother (who is 92) is in her last days. Most everyone has been there.
Your rotation is my rotation as well. You’re exactly right … more consistent time on the floor. Mitch Kupchak, the Lakers GM, bemoaned the fact that Kobe was continuing to play big minutes. Why? He said it was impacting the ability to develop the younger players because of the minutes Kobe played.
@KUSTEVE - your first sentence seems eminently correct.
@DinarHawk - Zoubek and the two Plumlees were opposite Singlar. Thomas played the 3 spot, was the starter there. But Zoubek + Plumlees, next to Singlar. We just need to trim two guys off our rotation now. If you look at the NCAA final game box score, as an example, you’ll see that coach K played Zoubek 31 minutes, Singlar 40, and Miles and Mason combined for 12 minutes. In the national semis, Miles played 13 minutes. Mason 8. Zoubeck was 27 minutes. But if you go back farther, the minutes are more what you suggest – the Plumlees combined for 39 minutes in the Elite Eight.
Really, though, I believe Duke had a 4 man post rotation – exactly what I am suggesting. They had Zoubeck, Singlar, Plumlee, and Plumlee.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 Your paragraph beginning with “Self’s strategy” is THE BEST explanation of why Self is doing what he is with the C5 mpg allotments.
The only problem with going to a 4-man rotation, is that whichever 5th and 6th guy you bench, you lose something x 2. All 5 guys are different.
My gentle counterpoint to @HighEliteMajor 's excellent discussion points are that eventhough we are chopping-up the experience gathering by 3 of the C5–> my point is that it is still slowing building up as a mass of experience, en mass. The other point is that this is only game experience, because you know the whole roster is running our stuff hot and heavy in practice.
My 3rd point is that the “constant” is the other 4 starters. They are also judges. They also know if that 5th guy is out of position, or didn’t rotate over on backside help, etc…Or even subtle stuff that most TV fans wont appreciate, like arriving late for a screen, thus screwing up the timing of popping open BG or somebody trying to come off a screen for that 1/2 second window to get a shot off…Notice how even the announcers noticed how Lucas “set a great screen”, which popped open Selden’s dagger 3 late game against OU.
Hey, I have been guilty of blasting Lucas a bit after his MichSt outing, but he can make positive plays…here and there. Same applies to Traylor, but in different settings.
One point of frustration and anger I have is fans lumping Traylor together with Lucas–> they are not the same player. Even if statistical production is almost the same, they are NOT some computer/cyber-generated player. Each is different. Let me voice my gut feeling differently: Traylor plays his ass off with his limited offensive repertoire, while Lucas could play harder, & faster.
Frankly, maybe Self limits the mpg of each of the C5 simply to limit the “bad”. Leave a kid in too long, and he gets exposed or exploited…
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@jaybate-1.0 Your sentence is a true gem: “(Self) makes the opposing coach prepare for all 5, then after a half Self commits to 2 or 3, and the 2 or 3 they handle LEAST well!”
What a way to “disrupt the opponent” before the game has even started…(I saw a VERY puzzled, shellshocked, or rock-shock-&-awe face from Scot Drew of Faylor during their obligatory beatin in AFH, and watch Self put the final nail in Travis Ford’s coffin, as this year’s new wrinkles + The C-Five Platoon will simply be too much for Ford to handle…)
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@HighEliteMajor actually, after re watching part of Duke vs Butler again, it appears Thomas started at the 4 with Singlar at the 3. The three guards, Smith, Scheyer, and Singlar, really carried the load offensively for that team.
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@DinarHawk said:
@HighEliteMajor actually, after re watching part of Duke vs Butler again, it appears Thomas started at the 4 with Singlar at the 3. The three guards, Smith, Scheyer, and Singlar, really carried the load offensively for that team.
Question for ya… after watching the Duke - Butler game, did it appear Zoubeck was getting away with every damn thing? My memory tells me the officials would absolutely not call fouls on that kid, and he was mauling anyone in a black jersey, but I might be wrong.
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@Mikey-P yeah, he did get away with stuff the whole tournament, but the principle still holds true that this year’s team needs toughness, rebounding, and making the simple play at the 5 position, just like that Duke team.
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I happen to completely agree with you surprise, surprise!
I also appreciate your tone on this thread…and good grammar.
One thing none of us has is a crystal ball.
I’m in favor of giving 20 minutes each to Mick & Bragg right away. And Diallo can get 10-15. Without a crystal ball, the only way to know what they can do is to play them real minutes.
We ALREADY KNOW what we’re gonna get from LL and JT. And if we win the national championship with these guys playing major minutes I’ll be sooooooo happy!!! As all Kansas fans will be.
But if we under achieve, again and fall short of at least a F4 w/ LL and JT playing major minutes then I believe most reasonable fans will always wonder what could have been…
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@HighEliteMajor Bragg did start the second half next to Ellis, that’s why I used the qualifier almost exclusively because he does occasionally play next to Ellis. I’ve said numerous times my issues with Bragg at this point in his career, if you want to continue to ignore those statements, that’s your issue not mine. I’m also well aware of the definition of the C5 and considering that Bragg plays predominantly at the 4, is why I think it needs to be changed to C4.
You keep saying you want Self to take a bold strategy, yet you also want Self to revert back to his old ways of playing 8 guys which is the least bold strategy Self can take. Do you actually want Self to make the bold play of continuing to keep the rotation expanded and playing 11 guys regularly and keeping other teams having to prepare for more players and more styles of play KU can throw at them because that is the bold strategy that you want Self to make. You just don’t like the bold strategy because it’s different and unproven. You know what is proven with this group of players? A short rotation and 1st weekend exits.
The bold strategy you want Self to employ is happening now and it’s an expanded rotation that can play multiple styles of offense. This is an unpredictable group and unpredictable groups are hard to prepare for and hard to prepare increases KU’s odds of winning games and championships.
@ralster I don’t want Self to shorten the rotation, I want him to keep it the way it is with 11 guys playing at least 9 minutes per game. I 100% agree with @jaybate-1.0 in regards to making opposing teams prepare for everyone, I’ve been saying pretty much the same thing, just in different words. More diversity in playing styles, the ability to play run and gun up tempo, play grind it out Big 10 style ball, play Self style bad ball just makes KU a very difficult team to prepare for because you don’t know how KU is going to attack you. We assumed KU would run with OU to beat them, but it ended up being bad ball that was most effective against OU.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 excellent point about this team’s depth and unpredictably.
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@HighEliteMajor - I enjoy reading your & kubuckets fellows. I’m no expert, but a fan who dreams of watching my team play good if not great basketball games. Yes, I also mean '07-'08 team, and Pierce’s era. It’s interesting how you observe the same points mentioned above.
#4 - If you watch again, Mason did not even look interested in passing to Bragg. It was very obvious there were 2 TTU players around him. The bounce pass was not the first time he missed. It’s mostly close range plays. That, and Bragg/Diallo was surprised to catch a sudden pass. They need to watch NBA games. Especially the Clippers. Watch how Paul throws anywhere in the air, and Jordan finishes it with authority. Yes, I believe we can achieve this high level play with only Bragg & Diallo.
Yes, we are winning games. But not for long. I’m sorry but our C5 is not a real threat when it comes to Feb. Sure we will win, but will we see development in our C5? Or are they just a part of coach strategy to win games (more likely will be contributed by G3 + Ellis, anyway). I’m really interested with how well our C5 fares compared to other teams. By the end of seasons, these kids will look back…"they have learned the system, defended well, altered shots, grabbed a bunch of rebounds, but… the sad thing is the league. will not draft them. Our C5 needs to watch this video:
- even 5’9’’ can dunk (yea, i took credit from a previous poster - about a 5’9’’ white boy
). So far we can count how many dunks C5 have had - I don’t have stats, but hope @Bwag comes up with one, but I don’t believe they are more than 10.
I hope I don’t offend some of you fans.
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I can’t believe it we agree upon something. Great post couldn’t have typed it any better.
You hit the nail right on the head. Most KU fans want Coach to step outside the box yet apart of them wants to hang onto what he’s always done.
Nice post.
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Thank you by the way for always building a good discussion.
*Take all of that, and then ask yourself – what our best chance to win a national title? Bragg and Diallo improving, or sticking with the low talent players?
Right now I don’t know what to say to answer that correctly, I’m really some where in the grey area of wanting what we have now and wanting change. If the result is a National Championship then obviously having your highest talent on the floor and having those 2 players play at a high level is probably-wait, is the best option we have. I also have this feeling that this crazy system we have going next to Perry is somehow the perfect option for this team to win in March. We don’t know for sure whether the wheels will fall off or not do we?
The net positives of our Core 4 sprinkled in with Greene & Svi has the chance to outweigh the negatives of the C5 almost every night. We’ve spent a lot of time talking about the one glaring weakness for this team but not nearly enough time talking about how this back-court is possibly the best in the Self Era. What if that strength of this team is good enough to mask our 1 deficiency into March. It requires us to believe in Self’s way. I’m somewhere in the middle, I’m not afraid to be content when its working but if it starts becoming unsustainable I’m sure all of us on this board will be the first to react before coach does. And I guess that’s one of your points. You do believe its not sustainable, and you as well as myself want to see Cheick & Carlton play to maximize this teams ceiling.
Even though we are winning, if we don’t react before its too late, it could mean KU doesn’t get what it wants at the end of the season. I get it, I agree.
But do you honestly believe coach will put tantalizing talent before a proven-marginal player(s) he trusts.
If he’s to for-see the future I’m not sure he’s got the kahuna’s to let his freshman play over his seniors. The guy has values that he holds onto, Mari & Lucas have labored and worked their butts off to get a chance to play. He knows they are marginal but he also knows that his freshman just don’t get it yet. At least to him, he’s seeing things from them that are not excusable.
He doesn’t trust them to not make mistakes.
And that’s a bad mentality to take. He has the exact opposite view of Mason & Graham making mistakes. He thinks mistakes for them will have a net positive result in the end. But 1 single mistake by Diallo or Bragg and the mistake is not forgiven. What gives, how do you understand a coaches mind when he’s stubborn. How do Carlton and Diallo learn to play this game if every mistake is under a microscope.
If the future says play the young guys or lose the National Championship then we all know what needs to happen. Tonight should give us further insight in how this team reacts to West Virginia. Will the C5 have one of those games that makes the system sustainable or will the wheels start to get rusty. Time will tell…
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@Texas-Hawk-10 I think part of the argument is that it doesn’t take much to scheme against Lucas / Traylor on defense: play off and clog the lanes, be ready for Traylor drive right.
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@KUSTEVE That is a good summary and I feel the same way. I think most of us would have liked for Self to get Bragg / Diallo more PT. HEM has made some very good points. I do worry that we need the abilities of Bragg and Diallo to win a NC, but Self’s track record speaks for itself (although you can’t help but be worried about our track record of losing early in the tournament…and that is the basis for a lot of the 2nd guessing that goes on here)
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@HighEliteMajor said:
Do you see us winning the national title with Lucas and Traylor as the #2 and #3 minutes guys in the post? That is the crunch question, isn’t it?
Honestly if we continue to improve and play at this high of a level, yes I do. We beat the #2 team in the country with a majority of minutes coming from Lucas and Traylor. They made huge plays all game long and especially in crunch time.
I think Self wanted to play Mick more vs. Tech but the refs were calling a VERY tight game (at least when KU was on D…). He had two fouls in 5 minutes and I fully believe he would have had 4 or 5 by the time he got to 10 minutes. Add that to the fact that Tech was already in the bonus EARLY, you have to put in the guys who can adjust and play without giving the other team free points.
On Diallo, I have been curious for some time if Self tells him to shoot every time he touches it. Or maybe if coach tells him to be aggressive and that is how he has taken it. @HighEliteMajor mentioned the pass out of the post, well maybe that IS why he got pulled. When Diallo is in, he is supposed to be working on his game. As @drgnslayr has pointed out, he certainly doesn’t pass the eye test to help the TEAM win games. Diallo is in to develop. To work on his post moves (maybe not the 18 ft jumpers!). To become the back to the basket scorer.
As good as this team is 1-4, the five spot is at best going to be a role player. That is why we have seen so much of LL and JT. They ARE role players. They play the spot and impact out of it when the opportunity presents itself. Neither forces anything and both make other players look (and feel) better.
It is funny to me how many posters are calling for Self to shorten the bench when in past years the gripe has been that he doesn’t use his talented players on the bench. How many times have people wished that he would keep 10-11 fresh bodies rust free for March, ready to play when the lights come on?
Also, @HighEliteMajor “all he has to do is win 4 games in a row.” Really? Is that all? Sounds so simple! I’m pretty sure you only care about the 6th anyway!
Great work everybody! Nice morning reading for me!
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@benshawks08 Good points. Especially about the short bench complaint in the past. I hope you are right about our ability to win a NC with the C5 (if it stays as is)…but keep in mind that win over OU was an AFH win…
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Yes, we can win with Lucas and Traylor on the floor.
Look at UCONN’s title in 2014 as a prime example. Up against a tough Kentucky team and without any great post players. Their post main presence was DeAndre Daniels… a guy that some say Kansas passed on.
Look at that team and you will realize how much potential Kansas has. UCONN was guard heavy, with Shabazz and Boatright. Those guys made everyone forget about their weak post presence.
This is why we need Frank AND Devonte to step up every game. Frank is, by far, the more consistent, experienced guard, but Devonte really has exceptional potential and just needs to bring in a more aggressive attitudes into games. He tends to play soft until the last couple of minutes.
We get these two playing to their potential, everyone will forget about the post, just like what happened with UCONN.
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The problem with the C5 is that at some point you guess wrong.
At some point by not playing the most talented players the most minutes, you play a lesser player and that player does not play well, they play too long, and you end up in a hole that you cannot escape from.
There will be a game, whether its next week, or next month, or during the tournament, where Lucas simply cannot handle the other team’s big man in the post because he’s too quick and too skilled. On that day, will Self pull him after three minutes, or, given that Lucas has been getting 13 or so minutes per game, will Self play him for 8 or 9 minutes before the fact that he is overmatched becomes blatantly apparent?
Let’s all remember that last season ended with Lucas and Traylor combining for the following line: 39 minutes, 3-7 from the field, 6 points, 15 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 turnover. Some will focus only on that rebound number, which is very good. I look at everything else, but even more than that, I look at the fact that KU basically was dependent on its other four guys to generate offense. It has been well documented by @HighEliteMajor and @BeddieKU23 that KU is better on both ends when Lucas and Traylor sit.
We have been down this road before folks. We walked this road with Brady Morningstar and debated ad nauseam whether Morningstar should play ahead of more talented players because of his absence of mistakes. When it came down to it, what happened? Morningstar’s career ended with a great team falling in the Elite Eight to a upstart VCU team with Morningstar playing 32 minutes and finishing with 2 points on 1-7 shooting, including 0-3 from three. What I remember most about that game is VCU sending help on the Morris twins from Morningstar’s man literally the entire game. They dared Morningstar to beat them and guess what, he was not good enough to do so.
This is where we are going, folks. This team is very good. Final Four good. National title good. But if we insist on Lucas and Traylor, our season will end with Lucas or Traylor being dared to beat some team and they will fall short. In March, you have to make plays to win. Lucas cannot make plays. Traylor cannot make plays. But Bragg can. Cheick can. Mickelson can.
Watch very carefully how Calipari handles this in a couple of weeks. Calipari coaches matchups better than just about every college coach. I guarantee he will attack Lucas and Traylor when they are in the game. He will put them in pick and roll. He will abandon them on defense. He will make them make decisions on offense. He will force the ball into their hands. The game is at AFH so Kentucky likely won’t beat us, but Calipari will show everyone how to beat us, especially away from AFH, where we get a six or seven point boost.
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I’m anxious for that Kentucky game. Have you watched them play this year? Skal has been a major, major disappointment. He plays very soft and non-aggressive. He has NO strength. So it will be up to Poythress to do the damage along with Marcus Lee. There is no Anthony Davis on this team… or Karl-Anthony Towns.
We shall see if Kentucky can dominate our post. Up to now, I just don’t see it, even if we put BG as our 5.
I see this game as a challenge for the guards. A guard game. And then we have a couple of extra swing weapons in Perry and Wayne.
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Great thread, lots of terriffic points by the posters. I would like to throw in my 2c.
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The post by Jesse nails exactly what some of the more analytical guys on here have been saying for a while, its all about the net impact and you can see who has the highest net impact. Not only that but there is so much room for improvement from those guys too based off of their potential.
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I am not set in agreement that we need to shorten the bench and that is solely contingent on playing style. I think we are at our best when we play fast, when we are shooting threes, and even utilizing a soft press. Doing that would require more bodies in order to keep the team fresh so shortening the bench might not play into that style of ball which I would prefer Self used most.
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The argument used most by those that oppose these views is that we are 14-1 and we are winning with LL and JT playing big minutes. Ironically enough, I think our chances at a NC might be better if we had lost the OU game because it might have given us reason to look closer at the rotation if we had lost. Since we won, everyone’s flawed defense of the C5 still holds up. But when we get into the NCAA tournament, we normally have to win 4, maybe 5, tough games in a row. Playing the style we are, many of these games in essense come down to odds that can be simplified as a coinflip (final shot to win, missed three at the buzzer, etc.). Think about our NCAA track record for both wins and losses (Michigan, Kentucky, etc.), its true. I disagree with HEM that we can’t win playing this style because we can, it is possible to flip a coin and get heads 5 times in a row, but the odds aren’t great. The OU game came down to less than a coinflip, they had a 50-something percent free throw shooter at the line which gave us less than 50-50 odds of winning the game at the end of regulation. Fans should not feel great about being in that same situation when the season is on the line in March.
The point that I have been trying to make most of the season is that we can avoid games coming down to a coinflip (or even a 25% loss odds) if we make some small tweaks to the lineup at the 5. I’d much rather win games comfortably by 7-8 points instead of coming down to the wire like the OU game did. The result was the same this time but we may not always be this lucky.
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I don’t think Calipari will just toss it into the post because that is not his team’s strength. But when Lucas is in the game, his man will be screening for Ulis and Murray on just about every possession because Lucas isn’t quick enough to come out 20+ feet from the basket and guard, and both Ulis and Murray have no problem pulling up from three if the big man sits back. If they are hitting those shots, we could be in trouble.
Calipari is very good at making your worst players do things they cannot do. His team is struggling right now, but they almost always pull it together in March because if you play lesser talent, they can punish you, unless you have NBA level players to pick up the slack. But that puts a lot of pressure on Wayne if you aren’t playing the other NBA potential guys (Bragg, Diallo, Greene, Svi).
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I hear what you are saying… and the real threat from Kentucky will be Ulis and Murray, especially on high ball screens.
You think Cheick can guard them out there? I think he would foul out of the game within 2 minutes. Self probably couldn’t pull him quick enough to protect him. Yes… it is that bad.
But the guys who will have to step up on that is our guards, including swing guys. In general, Frank and Devonte do a decent job of getting on top of ball screens. Wayne… Wayne… he has improved quite a bit, but he is still vulnerable to running behind screens. And then our bench, BG and Svi, could get schooled in a game like this.
We shouldn’t let our opponents force unnecessary switches, or create scoring space on high ball screens. If the defense is up to the task, they can make teams pay if they can’t run a perfect high ball screen.
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@justanotherfan But what if you’ve guessed wrong that Bragg and Diallo will show big improvement by March. Sure we can all see they have talent, but we have no idea when that talent will blossom into production. The reason the per possession numbers look the way they do is way more than just small sample size. It’s highly selected sample size. Not by the person doing the math, by Self. He has purposefully put the freshman in when he knows (or at least strongly thinks) they can be successful. When things get tough and against tougher competition, the older more experienced guys go in. Hence, lower numbers. Mentality is the thing statistics always leave out. Momentum building plays, the ability to shake off a mistake and not let it turn into two, making a mistake then making up for it, these are all things that numbers just can’t show. To me, the per possession numbers prove Self has been exceptional at not “guessing wrong.” Let your experienced players struggle, build the confidence of the younger players. This has always been his style. And I like it. Not just because it wins, but because it makes sense to me.
