Gradey Dick Call Your Shot
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I’m going with the over on points and rebounds, and minutes, and the 3FG% is close to what I think he’ll shoot at.
I think Dick will be either the 2nd or 3rd leading scorer next season behind Wilson and possibly Clemence. I’ll say Dick averages 12-13 ppg, 4-5 rpg, and plays about 30 mpg next season.
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9ppg, 3.5 boards. 42% from 3, 27 minutes per game
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@BShark said in Gradey Dick Call Your Shot:
I’m going with 7 pts 3 rebs a game on 39% three point shooting. 20 minutes a game.
14 points a game. 39% from 3. 30 minutes a game. You take the low side- I take the high side, and it will probably be somewhere in the middle.
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7 and 3, 37% 3pt, 18 mpg
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This is just like guessing when a baby will be born and its weight, etc.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 If he does play 30 minutes and gets better during the season I could see those numbers.
@BeddieKU23 I think that’s pretty much on par with mine but more minutes.
@Jethro I don’t think I’m super low on him, I actually do think it’s a realistic projection. I’m seeing people on twitter especially thinking he is Josh/Wiggs level. I think because he won that Gatorade award, it created unrealistic expectations. Notably he was not a Slam Mag AA. I wonder how often that happens.
I do hope he is good enough to play big Bill minutes. Doesn’t happen with FR terribly often. He’s a guy that could raise the ceiling of the team.
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yeah pretty much. I think he carves out a large role. I thought his individual defense at Sunrise this year was much improved from a bunch of games I watched of his. Again it remains to be seen if he can defend to Bill’s high standards out the gate but his size certainly gives him a shot to do so. He’s here & has 5 months to get up to speed. I can see your projection as well if he struggles a bit to be perfect. I just have this feeling him and Rice are ready to produce.
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@BeddieKU23 I do think Sunrise helped him tremendously. Luke isn’t the best coach, but access to their s&c program and the better schedule was a boon for his development.
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Yeah I trust your word regarding their coach. He’s played top competition and waited his turn to become the guy & flourished with that role so that’s promising. Going into this past year I didn’t really think he was a guy you could rely on in year 1 but I think after the year he had its much more of a possibility.
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@BeddieKU23 Luke is a great person though, no issues there.
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I’ll take 8 pts, 4 rbs, 40% from 3, 21 min.
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From what I have seen on Gradey, he thinks more like a volume scorer. Translation: he has a short memory when he’s missed several shots and when he’s hot he isn’t afraid to take a heat check from further out.
For this reason, I’ll put him at 10 ppg. Rebounds… 4+ because he has a great sense for where the ball goes (based on 20 mpg).
I can see him improve considerably as the season goes along. Probably will hit the “freshman wall” where he clinks bricks for several games then comes on strong late in the year.
I see him receiving some kind of league honors as a sophomore, and becoming all-league as a junior.
Curious how he adjusts to the strength of players in D1 and the aggressive play.
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Dang, with so many unknowns about this roster, this is a very tough call.
I’ll prognosticate he’s gotta have a big role on offense, with him presumably already our best 3 pt shooter. Green light special. But, he’s a freshman.
I’m going with 9 ppg, 2.7 rbg, 1.5 apg.
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- Guards: Harris - 7, Pettiford - 3 , Yesufu - 4.5
- Wings: Dick - 9 , Rice - 7.5 , McCullar - 10 , Wilson - 16
- Bigs: Clemence - 9 , Udeh - 7 , KJ - 2 , Zuby - 2
I think that by March Grady will be a 13+ ppg guy though. Seems like he will be deadly in the fast break, and with McCullar and Wilson rebounding and pushing the ball I think you see Grady get 6-8 easy points a game just finishing in transition.
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Since 2014 we have had the following freshmen (guards) contribute the following: (games started; minutes per game; points per game)
- Oubre: 27 gs 21 mpg 9.3 ppg
- Graham: 0 gs 17.8 mpg 5.7 ppg
- Jackson: 35 gs 30.8 mpg 16.3 ppg
- Garrett: 7 gs 19.2 mpg 4.1 ppg
- Dotson: 36 gs 32.4 mpg 12.3 ppg
- Grimes: 36 gs 27.4 mpg 8.4 ppg
- Agbaji: 16 gs 26 mpg 5.3 ppg
- Braun: 5 gs 18.4 mpg 5.3 ppg
- Thompson: 4 gs 17.21 mpg 4.6 ppg
A lot matters who else is on the team when the player is there but to average double digit points per game as a frosh is an extreme rarity. Only JJ and DD did it. Since Gradey doesn’t have the same letter that begins his first and last name I don’t think it is happening.
I personally don’t think he starts, so based off of that assumption and considering other players he will be playing with, I think @BShark is very close with a line of 20 mpg and 7 ppg. For my official prediction, I’ll take 19 mpg and 6 ppg.
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Thanks for that list.
The double figure scorers were 5 star prospects & fit the necessity of the position they were playing (30mpg +). There is definitely an open spot to take. Whether Gradey can get 30 mpg who knows…
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Over on points, under on rebounds, under on 3PT%, over on minutes. Probably wrong on all accounts, but here’s my thinking.
I think he starts, so playing 20 mpg won’t be an issue. I think that also means he gets shots, and since he will shoot about half his attempts from three, 7 ppg will be easy. I haven’t seen him crashing the boards a lot, so I could see him averaging 2.5 rebounds or less. Three point percentage is tricky, but 39% is pretty high.
This year, JCL and Och were the only ones above 39% among the regular shooters. Last year, none of the volume shooters hit 39%. Only Braun did in 19-20. Vick and Lawson did in 18-19 (though Vick only played about half the season). Now, the 17-18 team (a truly great shooting team) had three guys over 40% (Svi, Graham and Newman, with Vick at 37%). That squad was otherworldly good from deep. Those four guys averaged 23 attempts and over 9 makes per game.
All that to say that shooting 39%+ from deep is a high mark. I wouldn’t be surprised if Dick shot well, but ended up with 37% from three. If he shoots 39% from three, he’s averaging double figures, or he’s barely playing. There’s no in between because if he shoots that well and plays a lot, buckets will follow.
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@BeddieKU23 Really just depends on who the starter is. For the most part, starting guards get 30 minutes a game under Self. He likes to find who he thinks is the best guy and then stick with him and let the reserve be a change of pace type player. Anyone have stats on starters avg minutes under self? Feels like only bigs drop into the 2o range and that’s if they are out of shape or injured.
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Can’t say I can dispute any of what you put out for Grady - -Maybe- - - MAYBE you might be a little light on boards maybe - I was thinking more around the line of 5 boards. - 7 points his Fr year is hard to agrue, I’ll throw out just because I’ll say maybe more like 9 ppg. - probably off but what the heck
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@stoptheflop said in Gradey Dick Call Your Shot:
This is just like guessing when a baby will be born and its weight, etc.
lol - -you goof lol
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@Jethro said in Gradey Dick Call Your Shot:
@BShark said in Gradey Dick Call Your Shot:
I’m going with 7 pts 3 rebs a game on 39% three point shooting. 20 minutes a game.
14 points a game. 39% from 3. 30 minutes a game. You take the low side- I take the high side, and it will probably be somewhere in the middle.
Whe 14 ppg ? - -would be great , just don’t see those numbers as a freshman. He is good all right , BUT big adjustment from High School ball to Big powerful P-5. - - Plus learning Bill’s system and if he which I have seen from him but if he is lax on Defense - gonna cut into his playing time for awhile cause if you don’t wanna play d or your bad at it - -you will gt to know your seat real well sitting next to Bill
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I assume he will get hurt for a stretch that will knock his mpg down, as all Bill Self big men do.
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Tall people anyway.
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He’ll average 30 points and 19 rebounds and change his name to George Marcus
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Cupboards pretty bare for scorers. We are ranked 9th in con. based on that.
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@Crimsonorblue22 said in Gradey Dick Call Your Shot:
Cupboards pretty bare for scorers. We are ranked 9th in con. based on that.
Returning scorers yeah. I’m not worried about it at all. Points will come.
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The worst team in the Self era (the year before the title) scored 73 a game. This team is more talented than that one.
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Check out Isaiah Moss’s line. I think that’s pretty close
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@BShark is that dedric yr?
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@Crimsonorblue22 No. That team scored 76 a game and was a top 5 team with Udoka healthy.
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@BShark Doke wasn’t healthy long! That Auburn game
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@BShark u mean 07?
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@Crimsonorblue22 said in Gradey Dick Call Your Shot:
@BShark u mean 07?
That team made the EE. I mean literally the season before this one. Very bad team. Got OBLITERATED by good teams they faced.
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/boxscores/2021-01-02-12-kansas.html
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/boxscores/2021-01-30-18-tennessee.html
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/boxscores/2021-03-22-21-kansas.html
There were 12-7 at one point with a heinous loss to WVU. Thankfully had a good stretch after that before the tournament.
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@BShark yes, I agree!
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@jayballer67 said in Gradey Dick Call Your Shot:
@Jethro said in Gradey Dick Call Your Shot:
@BShark said in Gradey Dick Call Your Shot:
I’m going with 7 pts 3 rebs a game on 39% three point shooting. 20 minutes a game.
14 points a game. 39% from 3. 30 minutes a game. You take the low side- I take the high side, and it will probably be somewhere in the middle.
Whe 14 ppg ? - -would be great , just don’t see those numbers as a freshman. He is good all right , BUT big adjustment from High School ball to Big powerful P-5. - - Plus learning Bill’s system and if he which I have seen from him but if he is lax on Defense - gonna cut into his playing time for awhile cause if you don’t wanna play d or your bad at it - -you will gt to know your seat real well sitting next to Bill
He isn’t going to hit 14 a game. I just added 3 points to what I thought he’d hit because a certain banana shark had him hitting 7 a game…lol.
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@Jethro said in Gradey Dick Call Your Shot:
@jayballer67 said in Gradey Dick Call Your Shot:
@Jethro said in Gradey Dick Call Your Shot:
@BShark said in Gradey Dick Call Your Shot:
I’m going with 7 pts 3 rebs a game on 39% three point shooting. 20 minutes a game.
14 points a game. 39% from 3. 30 minutes a game. You take the low side- I take the high side, and it will probably be somewhere in the middle.
Whe 14 ppg ? - -would be great , just don’t see those numbers as a freshman. He is good all right , BUT big adjustment from High School ball to Big powerful P-5. - - Plus learning Bill’s system and if he which I have seen from him but if he is lax on Defense - gonna cut into his playing time for awhile cause if you don’t wanna play d or your bad at it - -you will gt to know your seat real well sitting next to Bill
He isn’t going to hit 14 a game. I just added 3 points to what I thought he’d hit because a certain banana shark had him hitting 7 a game…lol.
lol
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Wonder where MJ Rice is. Haven’t seen him arrive yet…
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@BeddieKU23 Few more days for him and Zuby
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I think he’s going to play a few more minutes than 20 a game:
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I think it will be quite a reach to think Gradey shoots 39% from trey. He’ll need a well-oiled offense behind him to do that and I don’t expect to see that for a while with so many new faces.
I think we need to dampen expectations on Gradey. The kid doesn’t need extra pressure on him. He’ll come around as he comes around. I feel very confident in his skillset. Just need to show patience with him.
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Anyone know what Self said?
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“I think if I had my druthers, I would play three point guards every day. I have said all along, I would rather play four guards,” Self said during the Big 12 Tournament. “I’ve changed my thinking, as long as one of them is big enough to defend a four and if one of them can be a lead guard. And the more lead guards you have is positive, as long as one of them has got to be able to shoot.”
Only direct quotes from it which mention to what he said in the Big-12 tournament.
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Self can play 2 smalls with McCullar/Wilson or throw Dick/Rice into the fire and see who sticks. We’ll see how they settle in but anytime you bring in two 5 star wings they don’t expect to sit. Not sure we get both without having the necessity or playing time availability. I think pressure will work itself out. They know they have a shot to earn a spot early
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I read we will be lead by wings again (like we had with Och and CB). JWil is really a wing, too.
I sure like our offense from last year. Decent ball handlers, 1-4, to finish in the open court and the half court offense depending more on drive and kick versus hi/lo feedbacks for the trey.
Gradey is perfect for filing in this role… great form on the trey, capable and aggressive for driving.
The challenge will be with converting McCullar to this style and have him be effective. But the challenge is on him to improve his shot. His NBA future is at stake.
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@BeddieKU23 said in Gradey Dick Call Your Shot:
Wonder where MJ Rice is. Haven’t seen him arrive yet…
well hope there is nothing to the no show - - -probably not
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The 2 frosh just graduated this week.
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@BShark that ‘07 team was pretty salty…was my first thought. 2021 was not a fun team to watch, completely pushed it out of my mind.
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@dylans said in Gradey Dick Call Your Shot:
@BShark that ‘07 team was pretty salty…was my first thought. 2021 was not a fun team to watch, completely pushed it out of my mind.
Completely agree. @Crimsonorblue22 how could you think I’d rate that as a bad Self team? lol
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@BShark said in Gradey Dick Call Your Shot:
I’m going with 7 pts 3 rebs a game on 39% three point shooting. 20 minutes a game.
After seeing MJ, I think your 20 minutes and 7 ppg for Dick are probably right. MJ looks like a man playing against kids out there.
