2021-22 PER's & Stats
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@benshawks08 said in 2021-22 PER's & Stats:
Some metric tourney breakdown stuff in the video. Apparently we don’t have a shot at the title…
As long as we’re in the tourney, we have a shot. That’s good enough for me.
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@tis4tim Same! First time for everything! And I just refuse to believe Texas has a better shot than we do.
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@Kcmatt7 Just a thought- maybe our great offense leads to worse defense. If you go back and look at our worst defense, it was Doke, Devonte, Malik, … that crew. They were also top 5 offensively. And they went to the Final Four. I don’t think we have to be Top 5 in defense to make a run. I know everyone is worried that our defense will let us down, but the other side of the coin is we’ve learned how to score against the number 1 ranked defensive schedule in America. And we’re 22-4, leading the best conference in the nation by 2 games. That’s strong as horseradish.
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@Jethro I’m just really pointing out that while it looks like the defense has improved by rankings, might not actually be the case.
I think this team is capable of a FF run for sure
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Ochai passed Wilt Chamberlain last night for 26th place all-time on the scoring list.
With 4 games left in the regular season Ochai is on pace to be in #21st place all-time passing Drew Gooden.
From there it’s realistic that he could pass Calvin Thompson, Kenny Gregory, Jeff Boschee & Tyshawn Taylor at his current scoring average in the Big-12 tournament putting him #17 place heading into the NCAA Tourney.
PER’s. Yesufu & Wilson saw decent sized bumps for this late in the season.
Analytics liked this win. Now 3rd overall in Bracket Matrix. Offense went up on both Kenpom/Torvik while D slightly down. Kenpom overall rating slightly up and trending towards the 2011-12 squad that made the finals.
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Updated post Baylor letdown.
Och needs 7 pts to pass Brandon Rush for #25th place. Dave is 9 points from 1,000 in his career. CB within reach of 1,000 depending on how post season tournaments go.
PER’s
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If KU plays 8 more games (3 regular season, 2 in Big XII tourney, 3 in NCAA) CB should get to 1000 this year. He needs just 118 points, so if he gets 15 ppg, that gets him there.
For Agbaji, if he gets 8 more games, he probably lands somewhere between Wayne Simien (1593 points) and Mark Randall (1627 points). A long postseason could maybe get Agbaji within striking distance of Kevin Pritchard (1692 points), but that would almost certainly require a trip to the Big 12 title game and a trip to the Final Four to give him extra games.
No matter what, it’s unlikely Agbaji catches Devonte Graham (1750 points), but he should settle nicely into the top 20 all time. That’s a pretty great career by any measure.
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A bit unlucky too since he redshirted half a year and missed the 2020 post season. There’s no telling how many points he’d have under slightly different outcomes
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@BeddieKU23 said in 2021-22 PER's & Stats:
A bit unlucky too since he redshirted half a year and missed the 2020 post season. There’s no telling how many points he’d have under slightly different outcomes
Ochai missed 14 games due to redshirting and averaged 8.5 ppg that year so probably somewhere around 120 points from his freshman year and he missed up to 9 games 2 years ago averaging 10 ppg. So ballpark would probably be around 200 more points if Ochai played a full slate each of his first 2 seasons.
Those extra games could’ve had Ochai challenging Frank Mason and Sherron Collins to be in the top 5 all time scorers at KU.
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Updated for end of regular season
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Updated after West Virginia blowout
Ochai is 16 points away from the Top 20 all-time scoring list. He sits in #21st place with 1,532 points and passed 600 points for the season yesterday. He needs 4 3’s to pass Svi for 4th all-time in made 3 pointers.
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Thank you your royal nerdness! Looks like we have a bit of work left to complete.
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Yesterday’s game was helpful on the numbers
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It’s probably harder to move the ratings this late i’m guessing.
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Where does this current team fall in the Self era on Kenpom? The two teams (one above, one below) with similar Kenpom ratings lost in 2nd round & Sweet 16.
Now if we compare which teams compare similar to this years squad via Offense & Defensive rank
Those 3 teams lost in the 2nd round, Elite 8 & Final 4. Interesting stuff. Let’s hope they got a 2017-18 run and further in them
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I would imagine so, yesterday’s game was almost 3/4 of a pt improvement in overall rating so interesting at the least.
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A good update, updating for after the Big-12 Tournament win and earning another #1 seed!!!
Some significant milestones on the horizon for KU players the more games we play. Ochai is about 100 points off Frank Mason’s single season record for points under Self. He sits in #18th place all time on the scoring list, will very likely pass Tyshawn Taylor for #17th on Thursday & needs 24 to pass Wayne Simien in 16th. 14th place is attainable and hopefully he gets there.
Christian Braun is only 49 points away from 1,000 points in his Jr year. He’s already ahead of Ochai’s pace (Och had 920 coming into this year) so he’s set up extremely well if he comes back for his Sr year to have one of those seasons that get’s him into the Top 20 all-time as well.
Remy Martin is 71 pts away from 2,000 for his career. The way he scored in KC makes this feat attainable for him. Remy is starting to play like the preseason Big-12 POY he was tabbed to be.
Positive movement on the Analytics
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The past KU teams that this squad compares the best too. Same as last update. We’ll see what happens
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A little surprised our d numbers didn’t move a little more than that. Eye test definitely felt like the defense was significantly better in the big 12 tournament than we’ve seen all year (minus the Baylor game at Allen).
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Mitch has been very good for us the last part of the season. His injury sucks in a big way and im worried he wont be able to contribute 100% i would be ok with resting him as much as possible early in the tourney if we are afforded that luxury. Of course, same concerns for Dave.
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I’d like to see Mitch at least test out the knee Thursday and see what level of comfort he’s got. Should be able to coast by in Game 1 without him but the 2nd round game no doubt we’ll need his experience
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KU ends the regular season #3 in the AP Poll. Let’s finish #1
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Updated for the Texas Southern blowout!!!
Och needs 13 points to pass Wayne Simien for #16th. After that he needs 48 points to get to #15.
Kenpom rating is rising with every game. Getting towards a slew of teams that made the Elite 8 or finals. This team is playing its best basketball in March!!
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Och sits in #16th place all-time after passing Wayne Simien. He is now 34 points away from #15 place. Come on Och have some big games!
Christian Braun needs 22 points for 1000. As I stated already if Braun returns for his senior year he’s setup to finish in the Top 20. Already ahead of Och at the same point of their Jr years.
Big Dave is now tied for #47th all-time on the scoring list. He’s got a chance to move up a few more spots before the end of this season.
Remy reaching 2000 points is now within real reach. Just 36 points away from reaching that incredible scoring feat.
Kenpom rating has been rising. Now the #9th best rating in the Self era. Torvik seems to like us a little more right now.
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Just looking at KU’s road to the FF via Kenpom
They get to play the 4th worst team remaining in the field. And then they get to play one to the winners of the two teams who are 2nd and 3rd to last remaining in the field.
Nobody has an easier road to the FF than KU. Almost as if the basketball Gods are making this up to us for 2020. Really, really hope this team takes advantage of this. What a gift.
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It’s hard to not look ahead with how our bracket has shaped up. Very excited and confident we can get there
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Imagine how much KP/Torvik would like us if we had March Remy all year. Lol.
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If things play out the way we want them to its probably a good thing everything that’s happened, happened. It’s clear Remy is out to prove something, he’s got a big chip on his shoulder right now. We may not have had that going for us with different circumstances.
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Fair point. He has been balling out hard.
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@BShark Harris is good at getting the offense going, while Remy is good at jump-starting it if we sputter. Cannot afford any more Och no-shows in the first few mins.
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@mayjay said in 2021-22 PER's & Stats:
@BShark Harris is good at getting the offense going, while Remy is good at jump-starting it if we sputter. Cannot afford any more Och no-shows in the first few mins.
Och did this at times last year to - you wouldn’t even know he was on the floor - -him and Christan both. If we ar going to moe forward like you said we need all hands on deck
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Felt like maybe this belonged here. https://twitter.com/jessenewell/status/1506672264078581770?s=21
So yes, teams do seem to get hot from 3 against Kansas more than other teams.
It’s also interesting to me that the programs at the top of this list are traditionally very successful programs. Obviously playing more tournament games provides more opportunity for this type of thing to happen but wonder if there’s something to less successful teams applying the chuck threes and pray strategy.
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@benshawks08 said in 2021-22 PER's & Stats:
Felt like maybe this belonged here. https://twitter.com/jessenewell/status/1506672264078581770?s=21
So yes, teams do seem to get hot from 3 against Kansas more than other teams.
It’s also interesting to me that the programs at the top of this list are traditionally very successful programs. Obviously playing more tournament games provides more opportunity for this type of thing to happen but wonder if there’s something to less successful teams applying the chuck threes and pray strategy.
Interesting. The obvious questions is whether those teams are just getting “hot” against us - we’re just that unlucky - or that our defensive scheme is the issue. That we don’t put as much emphasis on defending the arc or ball pressure or denial for the opponents best shooters? Strikes me that is has to be a least some of the latter - too long a timeframe and too many instances to just be bad luck…
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There has been some rumblings in the analytics side of college basketball that 3 point shooting % is largely unpredictable and random and that teams can really only impact how many ATTEMPTS are allowed against them. So this stat to me shows a little bit of bad luck and some of our defensive scheming troubles.
KU used to hang its hat on forcing teams to shoot less than 40% for a game. This meant taking away layups and forcing teams to shoot from further away from the basket. This worked as a defensive strategy and won KU a Title in 2008 largely on the back of that stiff interior defense. KU fans LOVE a rim protector! We know when we have one and can tell when it’s missing. But the game changed a lot after 2008 because of one person. Steph Curry. Players have gotten A LOT better at scoring from far away and every high school gym is full of guys unafraid to chuck it from DEEP. It’s made it to the women’s game with Clark from Iowa. Many people care more about the three point contest than the dunk contest. This is one area where I feel Self has been slow to adjust. He’s adjusted it somewhat on the offensive side of the ball and can be heard in press conferences talking about wanting his teams to shoot more from 3. But I haven’t seen or heard that same focus on the defensive end. Switching 4 has started to address it but still hasn’t made too much of an impact as it allows teams to get whatever matchup they want inside or outside. I don’t know the solution for this but it would be interesting to see what teams are REALLY good at limiting teams 3PAs and how exactly they accomplish that.
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@DCHawker I would wonder statistically if that really is too long of timeframe or too many instances because the NCAA tournament is just such a small sample size. It is at MOST 6 games in a 35 game schedule and usually more like 2-4 games for teams like Kansas (and the others atop that list) and 0-2 for most other teams.
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https://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1/current/team/518
Looks like teams to study would be Iowa State, Gonzaga (third on Jesse’s list of teams this happens to the most) and Baylor. Their 3pa totals for the year are somewhere in the mid to high 600s while ours is mid 700s. Houston is an odd team that allows a TON (over 800) but at a low percentage (under 30). Kansas is fairly close to Houston percentage wise only being a percentage point or 2 worse but that makes a big difference over the course of a season in total makes.
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@benshawks08 said in 2021-22 PER's & Stats:
https://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1/current/team/518
Looks like teams to study would be Iowa State, Gonzaga (third on Jesse’s list of teams this happens to the most) and Baylor. Their 3pa totals for the year are somewhere in the mid to high 600s while ours is mid 700s. Houston is an odd team that allows a TON (over 800) but at a low percentage (under 30). Kansas is fairly close to Houston percentage wise only being a percentage point or 2 worse but that makes a big difference over the course of a season in total makes.
At the same number of 3FGA as Houston, KU would’ve only allowed 13 more makes so not necessarily a big issue as that’s only about 0.4 ppg more at this point.
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@benshawks08 said in 2021-22 PER's & Stats:
https://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1/current/team/518
Looks like teams to study would be Iowa State, Gonzaga (third on Jesse’s list of teams this happens to the most) and Baylor. Their 3pa totals for the year are somewhere in the mid to high 600s while ours is mid 700s. Houston is an odd team that allows a TON (over 800) but at a low percentage (under 30). Kansas is fairly close to Houston percentage wise only being a percentage point or 2 worse but that makes a big difference over the course of a season in total makes.
ISU’s strategy is to hand check everyone on the line and force the refs to call them all
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Shotquality.com numbers. Providence the luckiest team in America (Kenpom agrees). Has KU as the 6th luckiest team. Basically, Providence is BY FAR the luckiest team this year. Just feels like something has to give here.
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I watched the Nova at Providence game, and the Friars are not very good at defending. They had to go to zone because Nova was shredding them up. They definitely have some good scorers in Watson and Bynum. Nova doesn’t run, which allowed the Friars to send bodies crashing for rebounds. They won’t have that luxury with us. I think it will be a close game at half, and we pull away with a double digit win.
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Say this into existence!
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Updated post Weekend games. We are Final 4 bound and how sweet it is!
Ochai needs 9 points to reach #15 place on the all-time scoring list. Right now Och sits 3rd in the Self era for points in a season (699) trailing Frank Mason (753) & Dedric Lawson (700). Incredible season.
Other milestones
Christian Braun needs 4 points to reach 1,000 for his career.
Remy Martin needs 4 points to reach 2,000 points for his career.
David McCormack sits in #46th place all-time on the scoring list.
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Updated going into the Championship Game. Let’s bring it HOME!!
Ochai sits in #15th place all-time & would need a Wilt Chamberlain performance to get to #14th at this point. Incredible career regardless.
David sits in #45 place with a chance to move up 1 or 2 spots with another monster game.
Braun cracked 1,000 points
Remy needs 1 point tonight for 2,000.
Kenpom rating jumped significantly with the Nova win.
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Feel like all the stats and PERs and data go out the window tonight. Anything can happen in one game. We are the better team on paper but none of that matters if they end up making more baskets than us tonight! Do think it’s fitting that Big Dave is at the top of that list as presumably the most important player on this roster. When he plays well we are just so tough to beat.
Och finally had his hot shooting night I’d been waiting for all season going 6-7 from 3 but unfortunately didn’t combine that with his more steady all around type games he’s put in over the course of the year. Here’s hoping he comes up big tonight with 30 plus scored from EVERYWHERE not just behind the arc. I really want him to be the MOP of the final four but I’d settle for Dave getting 20 and 10 and taking it away from him.
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With PER’s its easier for Big’s to have higher numbers. But agree stats go out the door with this game. It’s mano vs mano and hopefully our dudes are better then theirs
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@BeddieKU23 Are rebounds just over weighted in the formula? If so you’d think Jalen would have gone up more in the last half of the season.
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boards, bigs also tend to shoot more 2’s etc which lead to higher FG % on their usage etc. Dave’s PER is actually lower then last year but obviously we wouldn’t change a thing
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@BeddieKU23 Or is it more that most of Dave’s numbers come in smaller amounts of minutes on the floor? He rarely plays 30+ minutes…
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@BeddieKU23 I figured it would account for effective FG% and give that extra boost for 3s. Does it not?
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There’s a bunch that goes into the calculation but it certainly appears Bigs can have much higher numbers then guards can sustain
