So sayeth HCBS following the TCU game. Now, he was talking about the defense, rather than tightening up during NCAA games, which has arguably been a separate problem - and he said they need to work on “everything.” But, there isn’t time to work on everything, right? So what should be the focus?

A couple of interesting data points in a Washington Post article today (forget the source, its the data that is relevant) looking at vulnerabilities of several teams. I’ve noted elsewhere that this has been worst KU team from a defensive efficiency standpoint during the Self era, but a couple of things really leaped out.

According to the Post, opponents are shooting 36% from 3pt range against the 'Hawks - which ranks 212th!!! in the country. Already was an issue against ISU at Allen. Both Purdue and ISU are ranked in the top 20 in 3pt FG%. Is that mostly an effort issue? Poor ball screen execution?

Perhaps more problematic - we are allowing opponents to get 30% of available offensive rebounds - those second chance point opportunities help keep even poor shooting teams in the game and help wear down the defense.

And, not sure I believe this one, but apparently, we have the ball stolen on almost 10% of possessions, which ranks 294th in the country. Ouch. Certainly was painful against TCU when they had 12 steals and 10 offensive boards against us.

Can we “tighten” these things up? Anything else Self is likely focused on this week?

One other thing that we probably can’t fix at this juncture. Our FT % ranks 283rd in the country - only 4 teams in the tournament shoot FTs worse than we do. But, as Self noted, our FT % during B12 play was 3-4 % points higher than the season average, so at least that one is trending the right direction.

Let’s hope the boys can do some major “tightening” on defense - but otherwise play fast and loose…

We are on the cusp of the championship game, pitting another veteran, non OAD “system” team against a team heavily reliant on OADs and freshmen (and, arguably, formerly “system” to at least some extent, although perhaps less so now. Not quite the same dichotomy as Wisconsin and UK, but pretty close. In that vein, I’m trying to pull together various threads over the past week (indeed, entire season) regarding recruiting strategy and the merits or lack thereof of aggressively pursuing OADs.

HCBS earlier this year used the term “Fool’s Gold” to express his disdain? for (over)reliance on 3 pt shots in offensive scheming. I would argue that the real Fool’s Gold is making OADs central to the recruiting strategy, at least for KU and Self. Here’s why:

First, OADs don’t fit his system well - apart from learning the nuances, it requires strong fundamental skills that too many OADs obviously lack, on both offense and defense. What most OADs bring, at least on the offensive side, is shot-making and creativity, both of which are undervalued in the H/L, at least until the end of the shot clock. How many bigs during the past few years have come in with strong back-to-the basket skills and post moves - Okafor, Parker, Towns, and maybe Randle?

Two, it leads to recruiting over current players, resulting in transfers and even more program turnover, and may make it more difficult to get really good 3-4 star players (particularly to commit early).

Third, there are only 10-15 prospective OADs in each class, and only half of those actually live up to the hype - and, you can’t really know in advance which those will be (Alexander anyone?).

Fourth, at least as long as Calipari is at UK, it’s pretty clear that is the first choice of most of the elites - whether it’s Cal’s charm, Shoe Co, JayZ, Drake, Ashley, path to the NBA, cash on the barrel head or all of the above doesn’t really matter. What is means is that we’re waiting around until late spring every year to see what happens with UK - and, if we strike out with who is still uncommitted, then we are in full desperation mode trying to fill with 3 stars that no one else wanted, de-commits, and graduate transfers.

Fifth, and most importantly, based on the results from the past few years, it appears that the OAD approach only succeeds if you are really able to get multiple guys at the top of the class to commit - being able to put overwhelming talent on the floor, regardless of (in)experience level. The numbers don’t work - this is really a basic math problem. If there are just 10-15 prospective OADs each year, let’s assume UK gets 3-4, Duke 1-2 and AZ 1-2 (esp. the west coast guys), then the real pool for us becomes smaller. I would argue it’s simply more challenging for KU and Self to get the guys - some of it is system, some of it is Shoe Co, some of it is the Midwest and relative exposure.

That’s the theory - what’s the evidence. I would argue that we’ve seen all 5 problems manifest themselves at KU the past few years. We’ve had the consensus 2nd and 4th ranked classes the past two years (and 13th and 18th before that) - with 9 and 10 loss seasons and early exits to show for it. Correlation, but not necessarily causation. Let’s look at the broader “market”.

There are clearly too models for relatively consistent deep tournament runs and championships. One is the Nike stack, multiple OAD approach - let’s face it, it works. Maybe not guaranteeing championships, but UK now has 4 FFs in the past 5 years, and add Duke this year. AZ has 2 straight E8s. The other approach is the antithesis of the OAD/stack approach - teams led primarily by tough, experienced veterans, maybe augmented by underclassmen. MSU and Wisconsin this year are illustrative. Just look at their class rankings over the past 4 years (basically comprising their current rosters): MSU - 50th, >50th, 12th and 23rd. Wisconsin - >50th, 45th, 45th, and 50th. Izzo does recruit and occasionally gets elite players, but it certainly doesn’t appear that he is all in on OADs. Over the past 5 years, including the incoming class, I think he’s had just 3 5 stars - Dawson, Harris and an incoming player. Trice was a 3; Valentine a 4. Ryan has had just 1 - Dekker. Kaminsky and Jackson were 3s.

Apart from MSU and Wisconsin this year, look at 3 of the last 4 champions - Louisville and UConn twice. None of them had OAD stacks - I don’t think they had any OADs - they were characterized by veteran teams that played defense and had great guard play.

Let’s look at KU in this context. Self brought us 6 30 win seasons in 7 years with 1 NC, another FF, and 2 E8s - all without reliance on OADs. Indeed, very few top 10-15 recruits. Those were all typical Self teams - hard-nosed, strong rebounding, difficult to score upon, pound it inside. It worked and it worked consistently. Don’t know about you, but I loved it. A lot of guys that may not have been particularly talented (e.g, Reed, Morningstar, Releford) but they understood the system, and more, importantly, bled Jayhawk blue. They wanted to play for Kansas.

What happened? We lost the '12 championship with a classic Self type team to a UK stack of OADs and TADs. We were out-talented - even more obviously so when you look at the NBA (non)careers of the guys on those teams. I would argue that was a great coaching job by Self - we got to the finals with and hung with an uber talented UK team with a bunch of primarily 3-4 star guys. Rather than tweak a bit, I personally think Self overreacted to that loss and decided he had to compete with Calipari on his own terms - which, for him and KU, is the Fool’s Gold approach.

We’ll see how the next few weeks play out. Maybe Self will get Diallo or Maker, and Brown, in addition to Bragg. 2 OADs and one likely TAD - matched up with the returning veterans, it could be pretty formidable. But, if I had to bet, I would bet that we don’t get any of them. Then Self is begging to get Thorne for a year, maybe some Euro lug (a la Gonzaga) and trying to pick up juco or unwanted 3 star.

I’m not sure whether I hope I’m wrong or not. My own preference is to go after the 15-75 guys who will be around 2-4 years, who learn the system, and most, importantly, want to play for Kansas, rather than us being a second or third choice and brief way station in their basketball lives.

@KUSTEVE I would respectfully suggest it IS a matter of perspective, not lack thereof. And, the perspective is the recent past and heightened expectations. I am well old enough to remember the Owens years. A few great players, a couple of really good teams and FFs in 71 and 74, but otherwise very up and down. First with Larry and then continuing with Roy and through HCBS, we’ve had an unprecedented run of consistency at a high level. While Roy didn’t get the NC, he got us to several FFs and had some of the teams that were the most enjoyable to watch and easy to root for. It many ways, HCBS elevated us even further. 6 30 win seasons in 7 years, a NC, a runner-up and a couple of E8s. He has had a system and recruited players that fit that system with great results.

We’re all spoiled rotten as a result. So, the angst expressed in the many posts and threads following MSU - and really on the heels of last year - seems to be from the perspective of an elevated perch - where we’ve been the past couple of decades and where we hope/expect to continue to be.

And, from that perspective, the last couple of years haven’t measured up. The most losses in a two year period during the Self era, along with early exits and some really bad losses. What everyone is struggling with, at least I am, is whether this an anomaly, or has it become a trend? Is it Self, changes in assistants, changes in the college game/recruiting environment (and failure to adapt to same), bad luck, or some combination of the above?

Self was a great hire and has demonstrated over time to be one of the best in the game. His record is a remarkable one and we should all be proud of what he has accomplished at KU. My concern is his “system” doesn’t work well in the OAD era. So, he either needs to change his approach to recruiting or adapt his offensive and defensive schemes to better fit the personnel. Playing amateur psychologist, my own view is that a lot of this is an overreaction to the loss to UK in the NC. He had a classic Self team - veteran and gritty, could score efficiently in the post, and shut down other teams in crunch time. But, he/we lost to a more talented team. I think he decided that he didn’t want to be “out-talented” by the other guy(s), and he started to aggressively and almost exclusively go after the OAD types. The problem is that his system requires time to learn and execute well - on both sides of the court. And, we know that he has a quick hook, so the younger guys rarely get much PT - Wiggins was really the exception. Now he/we’re in a box - it’s not clear that he/his system and OADs are a good match. And, if you’re going hard after the OADs and don’t hit on them, you’re left scrambling to get 3 stars and cast-offs from other teams, e.g, Mason, Graham, Traylor, Lucas, Black, Mickelson, Coleby, some of whom have been and will be really solid contributors, but they aren’t elite.

Hope springs eternal - perhaps Diallo will be cleared and will see some adjustments in Maui that suggest all will be right in the world again - at least in Jayhawk land - and all this sturm and drang will be a distant memory. RCJH.

@KUSTEVE @BeddieKU23 @Texas-Hawk-10

Nice summaries. I approach it from a slightly different perspective, but still end up with a similar list of contenders - which I would define as a team that is actually capable of winning 6 straight games against good to really good competition (not just making the Final Four). If history is a guide, there are a few key attributes that have been common to almost all the champions over the past 15 years or so (with the 2 most recent UConn teams being notable exceptions to most of the common elements).

First, win-loss record. Other than the UConn teams, every titleist has had 6 losses or fewer -and only two champs had that many. On the flip side, most champs has 4 or 5 losses - only two had fewer - UK in '12 and the Hawks. What that seems to suggest is that the teams were battled tested - indeed, all came from power conferences and also had a few key non-conference games.

Second, talent. For the most part, all the champions had at least one high level NBA talent on the roster and in most cases, multiple future NBA players. Again, the two recent UConn champs were probably the least talented, although the '11 team did have Kemba Walker. Having the most talent doesn’t assure a title (see UK every year), but it’s tough to win without superior talent.

Third, efficiency ratings. Most of the champions over the past 15 years have been in the top 10 of the Kenpom ratings (champs ended up near the top; not surprising given the quality wins in the tournament itself). Again, the two UConn teams are the exceptions. Perhaps most importantly, defensive efficiency ratings seem to be particularly key - the point made that defense wins championships. The lowest DER for any champion was UNC in '09 - #21. But, they had the top OER rating. This has implications for a few teams this year, including…

How does this shake out. On the first point, it is likely that at least 2 of the top ACC teams will have 7 losses; maybe 3 of them. UNC, Duke, Louisville have 5 losses and FSU has 6. They all have games remaining against one another and then the conference tourney. Purdue has 5 losses now. So does Baylor. Kentucky does as well, but you could see them winning out. Is this dispositive?

Talent. UK and Duke are clearly have the most future NBA talent, but that has been true in the past. UCLA may have the next most talent. The key is that several other teams have at least one likely very good NBA player (I’m looking at you JJ) or more than one who will stick in the league. That’s enough given past history.

Metrics. Most of the listed contenders are fairly balanced - they have upper tier OER and DER ratings. UCLA is the outlier - they simply do not play defense at anything close to the level of a typical NCAA champion. Worrisome is that although the Hawks DER has improved a bit, esp. after Baylor, our current Kenpom DER is #28 - again, that is outside the final DER for any prior NCAA champion. We clamped down in the second half against Baylor - the question is whether the guys can continue to stay focused on the defensive end (and that may mean more minutes for Vick at the expense of Svi).

Taking them one by one:

Gonzaga. I’ve seen 3 of their games and I really like this team. Balanced and tougher than most prior Few teams. I think they are capable of going deep. They remind me somewhat of WSU a couple of years ago - great regular season and some quality wins (AZ, FL and ISU) - and blowing out lesser team, but have they been challenged enough to get through the gauntlet. I’m skeptical.

Villanova. They seem fully capable of winning it again - although I’m not sure they won’t miss Arch and Ochefu.

AZ/Oregon - I lump them together - both have talent and clearly are capable of making E8/FF runs. But neither of them beat anyone out of conference, and they simply haven’t demonstrated that they can beat teams that play a more physical style.

UK - can’t write them off with the talent they have, but they are young and the talent doesn’t seem Unibrow like incandescent. Watched them struggle to put away Georgia which was without its best player most of the game (Maten - who put 30 on us). They beat UNC in a shoot out, but that’s it.

UNC - I’m not as high on them as some others - they aren’t that good defensively (although held UVA to 41 points) - but they certainly can score and rebound well, esp. ORBs. But, it seems that they are capable of making a 6 game run.

Duke - the question is whether they are finally starting to gel and live up to the hype? They also aren’t very good defensively - just gave up 90+ points to Wake Forest! - but with the talent and K’s experience, they also seem fully capable of winning 6 in a row. Will be interesting to see how the last couple of weeks play out in the ACC.

Louisville/FSU - lumping them together as I think they are of a type - both have beaten several really good teams, but also inexplicable losses. Very big and athletic. I don’t think they are consistent enough to win 6 games, but I think either would be really difficult match-up for the Hawks that I would like to avoid.

Purdue/Wisconsin - I’ll throw in a couple of B10 teams just because, but I don’t think either of them is as good as the above teams. Swanigan can dominate, but doesn’t have a lot of help. Wisconsin is a nice, solid team that plays well together, but they haven’t beaten anyone of consequence.

Baylor - capable of E8 (again) or FF, and they have a great collection of wins (minus one against KU, of course), but that seems to be their peak.

Okay - the Jayhawks. We’ve demonstrated we can beat the best teams and win close games. Yes, I think we can win 6 straight, but if I’m being honest, I also think we have a smaller margin of error than some of the other teams. We routinely allow opponents to hang around and that’s a recipe for disaster in the tournament - miss a few FTs, go 2-20 from 3, or the other guys are lights out (like ISU). If DG can pick it up (I really think he is key), with JJ and BIFM, I like our chances. But, in the best case scenario, I would expect more of what we’ve experienced over the past month - every game within 6 points and a lot more gray hair…RCJH…

@HighEliteMajor and @jaybate-1.0 have engendered an epic and fascinating discussion throughout the season and continuing into the post-mortem about offensive schemes and whether HCBS has taken full advantage of the strengths of the players on this particular edition of the Jayhawks. I would posit that whether it’s the H/L or some variation of 4 out, 1 in - dribble drive - or Bad Ball, you have to have players that can execute the scheme.

Frankly, I go back and forth as to whether this is one of Self’s best or worst coaching jobs. The reason I say that is based on what I thought we had in terms of talent coming in. I certainly expected a lot more - a real shot at a FF and even a NC. Based on what we (or at least I) observed throughout the year in terms of what players demonstrated in game situations, both individually and collectively, I’m not sure I understand how we managed to get #11, a #2 seed, and 27 wins against the schedule we played - seems like smoke and mirrors. I actually thought Self demonstrated more flexibility - that’s not necessarily saying a whole lot - than in past years.

The preseason optimistic scenario was based on the the assumption that Ellis was going to be more of a go-to, consistent 18 ppg scorer, that Selden would significantly increase his production and become the second go-to guy, scoring in the 15 ppg territory, that Mason would improve over his 1st year and become more of a true PG (and, he would have a solid back-up in Graham), that Alexander and Oubre would live up to their OAD hype, that Svi would be a bit of an X-factor (based on the skills he showed in Europe), that Greene would step up and split the 3 with Oubre and be the designated sharpshooter, and that Hunter would be a Withey-lite providing some rim protection (based off Ark numbers), with he and Landon providing solid minutes while Alexander developed.

How many of those expectations were met? Ellis was matching his by the end of the season - but not consistently before that - until he tweaked his knee. Selden - um, no. Mason, absolutely, with a big caveat, which I will touch upon in a moment. Alexander - #2 big to Okafor coming in - night and day difference between the two in basic skill sets. Oubre showed flashes, but needs more experience (which he will probably have to get at the next level), and ultimately didn’t produce at the level of other 2-3s coming in, e.g. Winslow, Booker, Williams. Greene turned out to be one-dimensional. Svi and Hunter? Speaking for myself, I liked what I saw of them when the were on the floor, obviously not often, and wish Self would have played them more, but we don’t seem them in practice every day. Lucas was very solid; he’s just limited. Graham, I think, met or exceeded expectations and I look for much more from him in the next couple of years.

It ultimately comes down to the players, and both individually and collectively, there are some real skill deficiencies that revealed themselves that I would argue made it challenging to find a scheme that could work consistently, esp. against a good defense/opposing coach. I really don’t mean to come down on the kids - some of this is due to the AAU culture, who they played against in HS v. in D-1, etc. And, I think they are good kids, I’m glad they chose Kansas, and hopefully, those who will stick around will benefit from the summer tour and get better with more experience.

Having said that, collectively, we didn’t have anyone who could finish at the rim, esp. against L&As, but really against any type of interior presence. No one. We are the most blocked team in the country. We don’t have a very good passing team, which both H/L in terms of entry passes and dribble penetration and kick-out demand as @sfbahawk pointed out. Svi and Graham are probably the two best passers - but they weren’t our starters. Are/were we a really good shooting team, esp. from 3pt range? Our numbers were really good early in the season, not so much as they year went on. Scheming? Fool’s Gold? Tired legs? Defenses adjusting? Reversion to the mean? I don’t really know. What I can say is that I’m personally comfortable with Greene taking any 3p shot when he is spotting up and wide open (and, when his head is in the game). I’m comfortable with Mason taking a wide open 3 when he is leaning into the shot. I’m generally comfortable with Graham taking an open three. Although he had a hot streak in the middle of the season, I don’t think Selden is a shooter from range (3 for his last 26 by the way). Oubre - can make them, but I don’t have a high degree of confidence. Unfortunately, I don’t have a high degree of confidence in any of them shooting a deep 3 coming off a screen at the top of the key or on the wing a la a Ron Baker, or making a contested 3. Does anyone else?

That’s on offense. On defense, collectively, we have some height, wingspan, speed but not great amounts of any of them. We don’t block out well. Footwork across the board is generally poor - don’t keep low center of gravity or slide well. We reach a lot, picking up cheap fouls. We too often get beat off the dribble. We don’t generate many TOs, at least leading to easy buckets.

Breaking them down individually:

Ellis - he can shoot from 15-18ft and has superior post moves, but he really needs space and he just isn’t particularly effective against L&As. He is most effective when he facing a 4 that he can take off the dribble from outside the lane, or can post against a not-too-big and the lane isn’t clogged. To his credit, his defense has improved considerably, but that’s going from poor to adequate.

Selden - an enigma. Numbers essentially the same as a year ago across the board, albeit with more volatility from game to game. He had a strong 5 game stretch in the middle of the season, 2 really good B12 tourney games, and was key in the FLA game - but was mostly a non-factor or worse in the other 28 games. Basically, he’s giving you Morningstar/Reed types of numbers, albeit with more TOs and less consistency. But, they weren’t McDs and projected lottery picks coming in. He can’t dribble in traffic, he doesn’t have any semblance of a left hand, and appears to be clueless when driving into the paint. Some have posted that he is great defender on the ball - he is not. When focused, his size can be a problem for other 2s or 3s and he can shut them down. But, quicker players blow by him and he too often gives up on those plays. And, he doesn’t rebound.

Mason - love him. He’s a bulldog and fighter and so on. He was our best/most consistent player during the year (that a 100+ ranked player was says volumes). He improved significantly from last year. BUT, he came in as scoring guard and has yet to fully develop as a PG. The hallmark of being a good PG is making your teammates better - distributing the ball effectively and finding the open guy. Those aren’t his attributes, at least as yet. The WSU game was emblematic. Early on, he was able to blow by VanVleet and get some layups. WSU adjusted and collapsed back into the paint. Rather than penetrating and kicking to now open wings, he kept driving into the teeth of the defense with predictable results. He also doesn’t run a break well - too often taking it all the way himself rather than dishing or laying off to a trailer. He is also has a bad tendency to pick up his dribble in bad spots, esp. a long way from the basket. He is a gamer, however, and hopefully will continue to improve. But, I think next year the better move would be make DG the PG, and shift Mason to the 2.

Oubre - our best two way player, but still very raw. Really quick hop allowing him to get a lot of put backs, including on his own missed shot. Hasn’t really learned how to elevate or adjust when driving to the basket in traffic, however. Streaky outside shooter. Solid defender with long wingspan. With another year to two, he could be special player - but it seems likely that he has played his last game as a Jayhawk.

Alexander - what a disappointment, in so many ways. Feel bad for the kid how things have played out. But, he doesn’t yet have a college game skill set, and certainly not NBA.

Greene - not withstanding the long dry spell, he clearly has a NBA caliber stroke from three. Of course, the problem is that he is one-dimensional - he can’t dribble or create his own shot. And, you never know where his head is at. And, he is a liability on defense. Will he commit to getting better in all facets of the game; can he? Will he be around next year to find out?

Traylor - got to love Jamari and his passion, but it isn’t always well directed. He can do some things effectively in stretches, but you don’t want him handling the ball too much or shooting from outside 6ft. He really is a poor positional defender and doesn’t rebound well. He should be the guy that comes in at the 4 to give you 8-12 minutes of high energy play - he should not be getting anything close to starter minutes.

Lucas - most fundamentally solid of the bigs and he really stepped up given the Alexander situation. But, let’s be real - he is limited. He’s undersized (definitely not 6’10’), not very quick, has no verticality, and has really weak hands. Can Hudy get him another inch of hop and stronger hands? But, if he’s playing more than back-up minutes at the 5, we have bigger problems.

Hunter and Svi - who really knows?

Graham - was set back by the early injury, played like a freshman at times, and isn’t going to be an elite guard like a Jones or Ulis, but by the end of the year, I think he was one of our three best players, and I have high hopes/expectations for the future. He can penetrate, he can shoot some, and he defends well - by far the best at creating TOs. I think our offense, whatever it was we were trying to run at the time, was more effective when he and Mason were in the game together.

So, I come back to my basic premise. You have to have the players to be able to execute a scheme - and to actually do so. Painfully obvious from the get go that we couldn’t run H/L as in the past or score at the rim. Spread the floor and free the 3 or play Bad Ball. I don’t think we had the right combination of players to do that effectively, either, at least on a consistent basis or when facing good defenses or coaches who are capable of scheming against us (which was clearly not the case with New Mexico State…).

So, I think Self was constantly adjusting throughout the year to find something that could work night in and night out. While I have my own frustrations with his style and tendencies - the quick yank, riding certain ponies way too long, not taking full advantage of depth - with the benefit of hindsight and given the issues noted above, I think a good case can be made that the did get about as much out of this team as he could.

We are spoiled, of course, and that’s not good enough. Others have posted about recruiting to fit the system, the risks of going the OAD route, merits of certain assistant coaches, who we end up with next year, and so on. All good stuff, but beyond this post to discuss further (for now anyway).

RCJH!

@Hawk8086 The only problem with that is that 89 of the top 100 and 9 of the top 10 recruits HAVE committed. Apparently, the vast majority of top recruits aren’t waiting around or aren’t that concerned about who is staying and going elsewhere. The question is why no one is committing to KU.

@drgnslayr I also like the idea of our veteran players “possessing” the team, but I would simply observe that freshmen “possessed” last year’s national championship team. On the other hand, Wisconsin was clearly a veteran led team and made it to the NC game. And, the recent UConn championship teams were driven by veterans. There isn’t just one path - superior talent typically prevails, but not always. It is one persons view that we give ourselves the best chance to take it all if we can effectively meld strong veteran capabiility (Selden and Mason) with superior athletic talent (Bragg and Diallo) - and Devonte and Svi providing a bit of both.

This was another (very) disappointing loss, and emotions are raw in the moment, both for the players and the fans. But I don’t why everything has to be black and white - about the season, about Self, and about our tournament performance.

By all measures except one - a big one admittedly - this was a very successful season - 30+ wins, 13th consecutive conference crown - NPOY - Self showing more adaptability with his players than ever before, with entertaining results - a team with more grit and determination perhaps than many other recent Jayhawk teams - beat UK and Duke - epic comeback against WVU. Frank will go down as one of the all time greats at KU. JJ was the best OAD we’ve had - at least in terms of his play at KU. A lot to be grateful for and appreciative of with this team.

But that shouldn’t preclude a thoughtful discussion of the whys and wherefores of falling short again with regard to the goal each and every year at KU (yes we are blessed and cursed by high expectations) - a national championship or at least a Final Four appearance.

The numbers are what they are. Self’s 2-7 record in E8 games is what most folks are pointing the finger at. The one that really gets me is that we’ve had 8 #1 seeds during the Self era and have reached the FF only once during that time ('08). I haven’t gone back and checked this, but I think we have only beaten a higher seed team once during the Self era?

The bottom line is that we’ve consistently fallen short of playing to our expected seed over a long period of time during the tournament. That is a fact. The question is why? Luck? That may have something to do with, but again, it’s not a one, two or three time thing. Have we (and by extension the B12) been seeded higher than we should have? Probably yes to a degree, but that should actually make EASIER to advance further. And, advanced metrics have largely supported KUs seed most years - at least within a seed line.

Is something else going on? Is coaching an aspect - in terms of preparation, in-game adjustments, and the dreaded “tightness” factor? Perhaps it is inherently unknowable - certainly isn’t provable. By I’m one that has always had the feeling that Self does tighten up during the tournament and it is something could well be felt by and impact the players. It is most manifested in his substitution patters (or lack thereof) during the tournament. That our guys played not to lose, rather than playing to win.

I thought this year was different - that this team had a different character and swagger. But, after yesterday’s game, I don’t know what to think. Oregon struggled to put away URI and Michigan - could easily have lost either game. Didn’t really dominate Iona in the first round. Yet all 3 of those teams scored more points against Oregon than we did. We had our worst shooting %s and lowest point total of the year (eerily reminiscent of last year and other E8 results).

It took us forever to figure out their match-up on zone and adapt. We kept taking shots from the perimeter - some way too quickly - and didn’t drive the ball nearly enough (Frank did for a awhile, with good results). Perhaps we were cowed by Bell? Clearly having JJ on the bench hurt and while we were only down 1 when he came back in, he probably was playing less aggressively than he otherwise would have (and did in the second half).

How much of the game yesterday was on Self and how much of the KU performance in the tournament over the past decade and a half is on Self? I think some of it has to be - he is the one constant. Having said that, he is without question one of the small handful of best college coaches, a Hall of Famer, and I would still rather have Self than any other coach in the game - yes. But that doesn’t mean he is or should be immune from a critical assessment of why we continue to fall short of ours and his expectations…

@drgnslayr This has become a recurrent theme - and, unfortunately, perhaps the identity of this team. TTU has scored more than 85 only twice this season, against mighty FAU and Savannah St! Even in the TX win, we gave up 85 to them and they have trouble scoring against anyone (only game they scored more was against Northwestern State). Gave up 95 to ASU on at AFU.

No resistance against penetration and no blocking out. Gave up 18 ORBs. TTU missed 38 shots from the floor plus a few missed FTs. Doke garnered just 4 of those missed shots. Fully healthy or not, that isn’t acceptable. Whether driving into the paint or positioning for rebounds, it seems like our guys are allergic to contact.

Don’t know if that will or can change with the current line-up - perhaps de Sousa or Preston will at least be willing to mix it up, even if they don’t really know what they are doing on the floor…

@chriz I simply don’t get the “vote of confidence” point. Doke not making FTs is NOT for lack of confidence. It is that he has probably the worst FT shooting “technique” of any college or pro player I’ve ever seen. Definitely worse than Shaq. He can have all the confidence in the world - he ain’t making more than 50% of his attempts shooting them the way he does…

Bit of a double edged-sword – we should be favored in every non-conference game,but relatively soft schedule will negatively impact power rankings compared to past years. If the team comes together, not inconceivable that we could be undefeated heading into the conference schedule. But, that depends on how we do out of the gate - haven’t always been sharp (e.g, v. Duke in MSG) - and how we do in road games - last year, not great…

For the first time in memory, there are no real bench warmer/practice squad/garbage time only guys on the roster. Everyone can play - although obviously some won’t see much, if any time. There have to be 2-3 redshirts, right? HCBS isn’t going to change stripes - he always ends up playing just a 7-8 man rotation in games that matter. Maybe go to 9-10 this year? Even if so, that leaves 4-5 guys that won’t really get any PT. ? Who starts? Who are the first ones off the bench at lead guard, off the ball, and upfront? Which ones redshirt and which ones don’t, but mostly just sit and cheerlead?

@mayjay I don’t have a subscription to The Athletic. Are you are to cut and paste the full article? Would be greatly appreciated…

@BShark said in Sahvir Wheeler:

@Kcmatt7 said in Sahvir Wheeler:

@BeddieKU23 I’m officially on your side of panic mode.

Nothing like starting 2 guys under 6’ and then bringing one off the bench. Pairs well with our D2 6’7 power forward and JUCO 6’7 Center.

Just masterful roster construction going on here. Definitely got longer and more athletic this offseason.

Yeah I’m really not even sure the starting line-up changes outside of Marcus. The whole 3 wing (Braun, Och*, Wilson) thing will get beat like a drum against teams with good guards so I am hoping we do actually go with 2 guards a wing, Jalen, Dave.

*up in the air still

As much as I think Ochai should come back, it’s a bit depressing to think that our starting line-up would be the same as last year’s team, albeit minus it’s best all around player. We suffered an epic beat down in the tournament against a good, but not great, team (they were whipped the next game) that was simply faster, longer and more athletic. And, we had already seen a preview of that against Texas and Tennessee. HCBS acknowledged as much, and said we needed to upgrade our athleticism. As yet, however, we simply don’t have the speed or athleticism to guard the perimeter and defend against good guards or wings. Or, to penetrate and finish against size and speed (maybe Yesufu or Pettiford?). Who can guard a mobile big who can hit 3s (welcome to the B12 Tanner Groves)?

Our main issue last year was roster construction - the pieces didn’t fit together well. I admit I’m at a loss as to how we’re going about trying to fix that…

On CBS latest top 50 draft board, there are 8 players from the B12, representing 6 different teams. 60% of the conference represented, but not KU. When has that ever happened? When viewed through the NBA talent (or lack thereof) lens, pretty remarkable that HCBS was able to coax 20 wins out of this year’s team. Of course, he owns the absence of talent, as well…

@KirkIsMyHinrich said in 2021 Recruiting:

@BShark said in 2021 Recruiting:

@KirkIsMyHinrich said in 2021 Recruiting:

I mean players do get better. Frank Mason was a 32.7% 3-point shooter and 66.7% FT shooter as a freshman and a 47.1% 3-point shooter and 79.4% FT shooter as a senior. Players develop and get better. Dajuan Harris looks like he could be really good, so does Jalen Wilson. Maybe Clemence or Adams show potential next season. Maybe Bryce will improve with a full and normal offseason and a hopefully healthy sophomore season. Instead of trying to look for a quick fix and get a 1-year rental who probably won’t be much better than a player currently on our roster, maybe we should recruit freshman and give them time to develop and play with each other.

We are definitely hoping for improvement out of Bryce. I would bet money on 4, possibly 5 new faces.

And the Top 6 players on the team next season are still going to be Dave, Jalen, Agbaji, Braun, Thompson, and Harris.

Agree with @BShark that if that is, in fact, our top 6 players next year, then it will be a long and frustrating year. It’s the same team that lost games to long and athletic teams by 34, 25 and 19 points this year. Minus it’s best defensive player (by far) and the only player who could semi-consistently finish on drives.

I don’t know how much they could improve just with an additional year of experience, but that would be a team seriously lacking in speed and athleticism. Who among that 6 can take a reasonably good defender off the dribble to the hoop and finish? Who can create his own shot - maybe Thompson, who demonstrated earlier in the year that he has a decent pull up shot from 12-15ft? Who can consistently knock down 3s? On the other end, who can shut down a top flight scorer? Who can stop quick guards or wings from penetrating?

We were under .500 against at large caliber teams this year. And, most of the wins we did get were against teams that didn’t get past the first round (Baylor coming off layoff and a 1 point win against Creighton that won 2 games in the tourney).

Whether through transfers or recruits, we need a serious upgrade of talent, esp. a real honest-to-goodness PG, to improve on this year…

@Texas-Hawk-10 said in KU vs USC game thread:

@KansasComet said in KU vs USC game thread:

@DCHawker Harris will surprise. There is a lot of talent on this team. Compared to the other Blue Blood Programs, the year wasn’t so bad. Losses like this motivate. Looking forward to next season. Wish there was a tournament last year, I think we would have won it.

There’s not a lot of talent compared to KU’s best teams. Nobody on the roster currently is an NBA level player.

Who coming back would actually be a starter on most KU line-ups of the past 2 decades?

@KansasComet said in KU vs USC game thread:

Matchups were a nightmare. We will be back strong next year!

Would like to believe that, but based on what? We still don’t have an elite PG, shooters, or mobile, athletic bigs on the roster or coming in as yet…

Will they get to 90 before we get to 50???

That TGF is our second leading scorer tells you all you need to know…