Mitch
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After seeing some comments about him scattered here and there I decided he needed his own thread.
My main thought on Mitch is we can not judge him on what we seen from him last time he played. We do of course know quite a bit about him, he is a decent rim protector, is not afraid to take a charge or dive for a loose ball, and he will play his heart out for KU. But what has happened to his skill set over the past year?
If I had to guess, which is what I am doing
, he is going to show up in superb condition. Probably a valid guess from how he looks. I also guess he has spent a lot of time working on his shot from 10 feet out. Which I am confident he has. Now how that will affect his game is something that eludes me.What is your thoughts? Will we see a 30%+ guy on 3-5 shots from 3 per game? Can he make 70% of his free throws? Will he even get 10 minutes per game? Hell I donāt know, fill me in!
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he will do good next year
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@Kubie i think youāre right. Without a 3 pt shot Mitch is nitch. Hope it happened.
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IMO, heās going to set a bunch of teeth rattling screens, block shots, drain some threes and frustrate opponents (and their fans) more than any KU big man in a long time. (Lucas, Withey, Marcus combo)
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It will be interesting to see what Mitch has improved in his game. I think itās a bad comparison to put him in with guys like Withey and Marcus who were taller and more athletic. Lucas wasnāt a great athlete and played hard so thereās that but Mitch is also much smaller than him (girth and height). The man Mitch should model his game after (offensively) is setting on the KU bench. People claimed he had unlimited Eligibility, Perry Ellis is that man. Both are similar size and builds. Perry is a little bit quicker but having a 4 that can hit a jumper from 15+ foot is huge in todayās game. Perry was never going to go body to body with the trees but his jumper pulled guys out and a quick spin move got him to the lane a lot. Iāve always said Mitch could be a poor mans Ellis. Mitchās playing time probably has as much to do with Silvio as it does himself. Self likes his 8 man rotations. Assuming he sticks with a four guard line up, hard to imagine the second big off the bench averaging double digit minutes.
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I see Mitch getting a great deal of minutes, perhaps even starting some. He knows the playbookā¦ his defense was already big league before he sat a yearā¦ and we know Self likes to reward defense. The idea is that defense will show up every night and eventually, the good defenders will find their way to get their offenseā¦ for example, Marcus.
What we need first out of Mitch is consistency and defense. The rest is extra. He needs to be a player that wins us possessions. That meansā¦ few TOs while being solid on rebounds, blocked shots and steals.
I donāt think Mitch gave away his senior year on a #1 team for nothing. He is expecting big things from his senior year, will get the minutes, and worked his butt off in his extra year to add to his game. Hopefully, he can hit the trey and heās become even a better defender!
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KUās roster composition likely indicates Self isnāt going to be playing a lot of 4 guard line ups this upcoming season. Mitch at the 5 is not ideal because of his lack of size. Self isnāt going to have a lot of playable back court depth next season.
Garrett, Thompson, Agbaji, Braun will for sure get rotation level minutes in the back court. McCormack, DeSousa, and Lightfoot should all get rotation level minutes in the front court. Enaruna, Wilson, Grant-Foster, and Harris are probably fighting for that 8th spot with Harris probably having an edge because heās a PG. We did see Braun run the point on occasion last season when both Garrett and Dotson were off the floor so my guess is heās the back up to start with unless Harris is ready to go from day 1.
Enaruna, Wilson, Grant-Foster have to hit shots from outside to play the stretch 4 spot next season. If not, theyāre going to be limited to spot minutes. I think Lightfoot will be limited to 20-25 mpg instead of playing 30+ mpg because of his offense.
I will also say this, I believe KU is going to be an offensively challenged team next season. Braun appears to be the only reliable outside shooter. I donāt think he duplicates his 44% performance next season due to increased volume and more attention from the defense, but he should be a 40-42% range. Ideally, Garrett bumps up to 35% and hopefully 2 of Lightfoot, Enaruna, Wilson, and TGF can also hit at least 35%. Without that though, the offense is going to be much more reminiscent of 2018-19 version of the offense which isnāt good. The defense will be better than that season, but there will be a drop-off from last season because of not having Doke in the middle.
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The thing I hope Mitch has improved during his time is confidence. Usually that comes with players in year 5 under Self. Weāll see what Mitch is made of
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@BeddieKU23 said in Mitch:
The thing I hope Mitch has improved during his time is confidence. Usually that comes with players in year 5 under Self. Weāll see what Mitch is made of
Confidence has never been an issue for Mitch. His first 3 years, people kept saying Mitch wonāt play or wonāt play that many minutes and he always found a way on the floor for more minutes than anyone anticipated from him. 14 mpg as a sophomore and 12 mpg as a junior were more than anyone projected for him at the time.
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Maybe heās working on playing through contact. Heāll be required to go up against some brawn and, as I recall, he was usually at his best when he didnāt have to go through contact. A 33+% 3-pt shot would also stretch the D in ways we havenāt seenā¦ so that would be welcome!
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Iām looking forward to seeing Mitch play. Itāll be a sad sr speech pm for him, the guy loves KU. I think it depends on matchups how we play him, I see him playing the 4 if weāre playing teams w/2 posts. He may have to play some 5, with BDās foul problems, but I donāt see Mitch as a 5. I guess Iām so use to us having big Doke
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@Crimsonorblue22 said in Mitch:
Iām looking forward to seeing Mitch play. Itāll be a sad sr speech pm for him, the guy loves KU. I think it depends on matchups how we play him, I see him playing the 4 if weāre playing teams w/2 posts. He may have to play some 5, with BDās foul problems, but I donāt see Mitch as a 5. I guess Iām so use to us having big Doke
Dave doesnāt have foul issues. He averaged under 5 per 40 minutes last season. The game he fouled out in 5 minutes was the anomaly game for him, not the norm.
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I think we play lightfoot 25 min a game at the 4 and when heās out we rotate 4 guards. Thompson and Braun are good shooters and I believe ochai will continue to improve on his shot. Wilson didnāt get enough time to really evaluate but he has good form on his three point shot and I expect him to shoot well. Biggest loss is dotsonās driving ability.
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@jayhawks2010 not doke? I think both.
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Obviously doke was sensational but youāve got a junior, former McDonaldās American center, whose showed some promise last year. I donāt think the drop off will be as big at center, as losing Dotson will be. We do not have a solidified pg. probably garret will start there and do fine. Garret has thrived the most when playing the 4 but he has the tools to be the pg.
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I think everyone has more faith in BD than I do. I sure like him, I just canāt get there.
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@jayhawks2010 said in Mitch:
I think we play lightfoot 25 min a game at the 4 and when heās out we rotate 4 guards. Thompson and Braun are good shooters and I believe ochai will continue to improve on his shot. Wilson didnāt get enough time to really evaluate but he has good form on his three point shot and I expect him to shoot well. Biggest loss is dotsonās driving ability.
If we play Mitch 25 MPG at the 4 weāre so, so screwed. Heās a good shot blocker and effort guy but I really donāt know what else he gives us.
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I think heās improved his ability to stretch the floor and like someone said earlier he didnāt redshirt to not play. We also know self loves 2 big guy lineups. All season we could see we were better with 4 guards and it took the fight for him to totally go away from 2 big guys. Iām totally fine running 4 guards, especially if Foster is the real deal but I would not be shocked if bill went with the experienced Mitch for a decent amount of the game at 4
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Bigger athletic guys have bothered Mitch. Some of that attributed to his slight frame when he arrived. He has worked hard to gain good weight and muscle.
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Interesting take. I think the biggest drop off is Doke to Dave. Itās not a slight on Dave at all heās just not a 7 foot athletic freak with a freakish wingspan who shoots 74% from the field. They are different players. Dave is capable of being a double/double guy (as Self has said recently) because Self loves to have a dominant post player in his scheme. Landen Lucas was a 8 & 8 guy, Doke was a 13 & 10 guy. Dave is better offensively then Landen but his defense needs work so somewhere between the two seems likely.
Dotson is a big loss but we saw the emergence of Garrett at PG all of last season. His driving ability is his best offense. Heās a better facilitator then Devon. I think all of Jayhawk Nation should be pumped to see what Sr version of Marcus we get. Itās usually worked out well in the Self Era with a Sr PG running the show.
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Self has hinted heāll likely stick with the 4 guard lineup. I also believe thatās how he gets his best 5 of the floor. He has a lot of mouths to feed on the perimeter. Garrett, Ochai, Braun are locked in already to starterās minutes. Enaruna is back and Harris is eligible, then you add in Thompson. Grant-Foster could be a wing or the ideal 4 at his size/athletic ability. I see Grant-Foster & Braun playing primarily at the 4 position next season. Thereās a lot of flexibility for Self here and he has tremendous size on the perimeter once again. Then you have Wilson. I have no idea what Self will do with him or how much heāll play. The 4 guard lineup looks like its here to stay!
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@Crimsonorblue22 said in Mitch:
I think everyone has more faith in BD than I do. I sure like him, I just canāt get there.
This is me with Mitch. I think if he is playing much more than 10 minutes a game we are screwed. He has a very clear ceiling. He is a useful player but his role is certainly coming off the bench.
@FarmerJayhawk said in Mitch:
@jayhawks2010 said in Mitch:
I think we play lightfoot 25 min a game at the 4 and when heās out we rotate 4 guards. Thompson and Braun are good shooters and I believe ochai will continue to improve on his shot. Wilson didnāt get enough time to really evaluate but he has good form on his three point shot and I expect him to shoot well. Biggest loss is dotsonās driving ability.
If we play Mitch 25 MPG at the 4 weāre so, so screwed. Heās a good shot blocker and effort guy but I really donāt know what else he gives us.
Should have kept reading the thread. My guy Farmer gets it.
The offense will be fine, assuming we donāt play a 6ā7āā center next to Dave a bunch. We have a lot of guys capable of playing the 4 so it seems like Bill shouldnāt sabotage the offense by doing that.
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@BeddieKU23 said in Mitch:
Self has hinted heāll likely stick with the 4 guard lineup. I also believe thatās how he gets his best 5 of the floor. He has a lot of mouths to feed on the perimeter. Garrett, Ochai, Braun are locked in already to starterās minutes. Enaruna is back and Harris is eligible, then you add in Thompson. Grant-Foster could be a wing or the ideal 4 at his size/athletic ability. I see Grant-Foster & Braun playing primarily at the 4 position next season. Thereās a lot of flexibility for Self here and he has tremendous size on the perimeter once again. Then you have Wilson. I have no idea what Self will do with him or how much heāll play. The 4 guard lineup looks like its here to stay!
Thereās really not a lot of mouths to feed on the perimeter. Thereās more front court players than guards on the roster this season. Garrett, Thompson, Braun, and Ochai, will get minutes for sure. I can easily see Dajuan Harris not getting big minutes this season because Christian Braun is a capable PG as well and ran point occasionally last year when Dotson and Garrett were off the floor.
The 4 spot is where the glut is because thatās where 4 of the players natural position is. Self has only used the 4 guard line up because of a lack of 4ās capable of playing on the perimeter and spacing. This season, KU will have multiple guys capable of filling that stretch 4 spot.
Keep underestimating Lightfoot and heās going to overperform to expectations since thatās what he does.
Heās not going to lead the team in scoring because thatās not his role. He can get others open setting screens better than anyone else which will be critical to getting Marcus open lanes to drive to the basket. Heās also the best shot blocker on the team and best help defender which will be critical for Dave since Dave isnāt nearly as good as Doke on defense.
Mitch is a complementary player who whose strengths on both ends of the floor perfectly complement KUās two most important players next season.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 has this nailed in his last sentence. If Mitch acts as a complementary player, he will be a nice addition to a team that should be fairly deep. If he tries to become a star or is used outside his skillset, he will have a very frustrating year.
I come back to the Landen Lucas issue. Landen Lucas would have been perfect as a 15-18 mpg role player. His effort, smarts and skillset would have fit perfectly in that role, and he would have excelled. However, asking him to do more than that exposed his limitations in a way that ultimately was not his fault.
The key is to let guys play within their role. If Mitchās skills begin to exceed that role, great. But trying to force him into an expanded role will only lead to frustration. Iād rather see Mitch have a great year in a limited role than a frustrating year in a role that is too large.
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Iām not underestimating Mitch at all. I think heāll be in the rotation for minutes behind Dave or a 4 man if needed. That could happen due to game flow, injury, opponent. Mitch will play Iām not doubting that. Heās a good option to have. I do think heāll play most of his minutes at the 5 though.
There are 8 perimeter players fighting for spots so Iām not understanding your view here. Marcus- Dajuan at PG, Braun & Thompson as secondary guard options, Agbaji, Enaruna & Grant-Foster at the wing which makes 7. Expect Jossell to red-shirt. I do think Braun and Grant-Foster are the type of guards that end up the 4 in a 4 guard lineup. Braun has already played the position this past season and Grant-Fosterās skill set would make him an ideal candidate as well. Wilson is the 8th wing/'4āman. 8 guys for 4 spots, thatās a lot of competition and mouths to feed
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I donāt think Mitch is good enough in a lot of areas to be a four. Sounds like semantics between texas hawk and beddie. Wilson and Enaruna are definitely best suited to the 4 spot, but probably consider themselves guards.
I think Iām perfectly estimating Mitch but we will see. Iād put a max minute cap on him of 15 with the team also being any good. If he starts, plays over 20 minutes and is a real offensive threat Iāll change my avatar to Mitch for a year.
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@BShark do you think heāll be improved or same?
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I would expect some kind of improvement. His biggest hurdle to playing the four is defense. He would get blown by. In now rare instances where the opponent has a plodding four he would be playable thereā¦
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I would expect some kind of improvement. His biggest hurdle to playing the four is defense. He would get blown by. In now rare instances where the opponent has a plodding four he would be playable thereā¦
He has gotten blown by his entire College Career. The only saving grace with that Iāve been almost stunned with his recovery time. I donāt know how many times I have seen Mitch get burned on the defensive end and yet still been able to recover and block his players shot.
Now itās going to be harder this coming year then the one that just past cause if he would of played he could of been more aggressive on the defensive end cause if he got beat - - - you had Doke back to reinforce - thatās not going to be the case this year
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How about when we run into one of those teams that historically have given us trouble. Five guys that can shoot with a big man that is just big enough and plenty fast enough to slow down our big defensively and is too quick for our big to defend tight and can shoot over him if he donāt. I think Mitch will be able to guard those bigs and shoot just well enough from outside to force them to play him honest. I donāt trust Enaruna to play that kind of defense as of yet and donāt think anyone else will have both the inside D and the outside shot to counter that kind of threat. Iād give Mitch 15 minutes a game just to be ready for that situation to come up to send us home early in the tourney once more.
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@BShark I think people are a little over the top about Mitchās shot blocking ability. Yes heās had a few good games in that department but Iām nearly a 100 games he averages almost right at 1 BPG. Letās not make him out to be Withey reincarnated.
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@FarmerJayhawk said in Mitch:
If we play Mitch 25 MPG at the 4 weāre so, so screwed. Heās a good shot blocker and effort guy but I really donāt know what else he gives us.
I think Mitch gives us a lot. Heās a guy who will stop opposition scoring and will win us possessions. He will give us consistency. 50/50 balls. He helps our guys with team confidence. And heās a glue guy. He will also find ways to get his points. Iām sure he has focused on scoring in his year off. Teamed with Marcus and we will be one of the better defensive teams in the nation.
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@kjayhawks said in Mitch:
@BShark I think people are a little over the top about Mitchās shot blocking ability. Yes heās had a few good games in that department but Iām nearly a 100 games he averages almost right at 1 BPG. Letās not make him out to be Withey reincarnated.
His per 40 block numbers are insane. The dude blocks a lot of shorts per minute he is on the floor.
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Iām waiting for someone to say Mitch is going to come back with a three ball and play a lot.
Weāve heard it every year heās been here
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Yeah he is really good at help defense and blocking shots.
Iām waiting for someone to say Mitch is going to come back with a three ball and play a lot.
Weāve heard it every year heās been here
Yep. The fact of the matter is he is just not a player that looks for offense at all. Which is good because he is not particularly good at it.
Parts of the KU fan base seem to think heās Omari Spellman.
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@drgnslayr said in Mitch:
@FarmerJayhawk said in Mitch:
If we play Mitch 25 MPG at the 4 weāre so, so screwed. Heās a good shot blocker and effort guy but I really donāt know what else he gives us.
I think Mitch gives us a lot. Heās a guy who will stop opposition scoring and will win us possessions. He will give us consistency. 50/50 balls. He helps our guys with team confidence. And heās a glue guy. He will also find ways to get his points. Iām sure he has focused on scoring in his year off. Teamed with Marcus and we will be one of the better defensive teams in the nation.
Sounds perfect for 10-15 MPG backing up Dave. Iām not trying to knock Mitch, heās just limited offensively and canāt defend on the perimeter. Good shot blocker, ok rebounder for his size. We become incredibly easy to defend if he and McCormack play together. Paint is clogged, Garrett canāt drive, and weāre left with 1 guy that can shoot (Bryce). Would make Dave and Doke lineups look like the Warriors from 5 years ago.
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@FarmerJayhawk said in Mitch:
@drgnslayr said in Mitch:
@FarmerJayhawk said in Mitch:
If we play Mitch 25 MPG at the 4 weāre so, so screwed. Heās a good shot blocker and effort guy but I really donāt know what else he gives us.
I think Mitch gives us a lot. Heās a guy who will stop opposition scoring and will win us possessions. He will give us consistency. 50/50 balls. He helps our guys with team confidence. And heās a glue guy. He will also find ways to get his points. Iām sure he has focused on scoring in his year off. Teamed with Marcus and we will be one of the better defensive teams in the nation.
Sounds perfect for 10-15 MPG backing up Dave. Iām not trying to knock Mitch, heās just limited offensively and canāt defend on the perimeter. Good shot blocker, ok rebounder for his size. We become incredibly easy to defend if he and McCormack play together. Paint is clogged, Garrett canāt drive, and weāre left with 1 guy that can shoot (Bryce). Would make Dave and Doke lineups look like the Warriors from 5 years ago.
You say Mitch is going to play 10-15 mpg backing up McCormack. My question then would be where does KUās other senior post player fit into that picture then? Silvio sure isnāt coming back to KU to ride the bench his senior year. And Mitch didnāt redshirt to play the same number of minutes he couldāve played on a better team last season. I think you are underestimating Mitch and will be wrong on what Mitch will contribute next season and what position he will play.
Mitch isnāt backing Dave up and he will play 20-25 mpg at the 4 because he is the best option at that spot. Keep underestimating him like people here have done his entire career. Heās not going to be spending a lot of time down low on the post because thatās not his game either. His PER for his career is 14.8 which higher than the other know options at that spot other than TGF who we donāt know how well heāll actually do yet and what kind of adjustment period heāll go through. 14.8 is the same as Braun, but Braun probably backs up the 1-3 spots this as a universal sub like he did the last part of last season. Ochai Agbaji who spent a lot of time at the 4 in the 4 guard look had a PER of 13.1 last year and Tristan Enaruna had a PER of 9. Jalen Wilson was a -67 for his very limited minutes in his 2 games last year and still wouldnāt have been very good even factoring the two exhibition games where he shot a combined 3-13 for 9 points in 40 minutes. Lightfoot is the best option at this point at the 4 spot.
Out of Lightfoot, Enaruna, and Wilson, Mitch is by far the best defender out of the 3, Iām going to reserve judgement on TGF because JuCo players can be very hit of miss at the high major D1 level. Does Mitch get blown by? Yes, but unlike the other options, Mitch adapted to that by becoming a very good backside shot blocker to compensate.
On offense, KU shouldnāt look the same as last year because that 2 man game with Doke and Dotson/Garrett isnāt going to be as effective. Iām sure weāll still see it at times, but that shouldnāt be the primary offensive look this year, especially with Dave and Mitch together. Youāre worried about the lane being clogged because of what happened last year. That happened because Doke couldnāt make a shot outside of 5ā last year so there was no reason to go with him beyond 5ā.
The difference this season on offense will be that Dave is a capable mid-range shooter which means defenders have to go out with him when Dave is 15ā-18ā away from the basket and Iām betting the biggest thing Dave is working on offensively is extending his range to 3 point territory to hit that top of the key and baseline 3ās. Mitch on offense isnāt someone who needs the ball or will be spending a lot of time in the post area. He will be out on the perimeter doing what he does best on offense, setting picks and screens for the guards to drive or get open looks from 3. This is where most of his points will come from is of off the pick or screen and rolls where his man abandons him. If he gets back to what did as a sophomore hitting 35% from 3, thatās exactly what KU needs from the 4 spot this year because thatās not the position where scoring needs to come from this year because the 4 will be the weakest position for KU on both ends this season.
This is what Iām expecting Mitchās stat line to look like next season. 20-25 mpg, 5-7 PPG, 4-5 rpg, 1-2 apg, 2 bpg while shooting about 60% from the field, 35% from 3, and about 70% from the FT line.
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Chris Piper senior season, Model 2.0.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 I feel strongly that the team sucks in this scenario so Iām hoping it doesnāt happen and other guys step up. The offense would be an absolute slog with Garrett, Mitch and Dave on the floor at the same time.
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@BShark And I think youāre wrong about that. Is the offense going to good as last season? Probably not because Dave isnāt Doke and wonāt shoot 75% from the field.
Will the offense look like it did last season? It shouldnāt be a clone because this roster doesnāt have the same strengths as last season, but there should be elements of last yearās offense that will still play to this groupās strengths.
Dave, unlike Doke, can hit a shot from more than 5ā so defenders have to stay with Dave when heās in the mid-range otherwise heāll beat teams from there all game long. This means Dave has to be guarded away from the basket, unlike Doke, so defenders canāt camp in the lane which will help open up the paint.
Garrett and Dotson are pretty similar offensively in that neither are great shooters and both got most of their offense driving the ball. Garrettās biggest strength is driving the ball. Lightfootās biggest strength on offense is setting screens for others. Lightfoot is also capable of knocking down 3ās at 35% (sophomore year). Combine Mitch screening and picking on the perimeter for the guards along with Daveās ability to hit a mid-range shot opens the paint for Garrett to drive.
With a line up of Garrett/Thompson/Agabji/Lightfoot/McCormack on the floor, Agbaji is the one that teams will be doubling off of Agbaji because Agabji is the worst offensive player in that group.
KUās best offensive line up next season will be Garrett/Thompson/Braun/Lightfoot/McCormack.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 said in Mitch:
@FarmerJayhawk said in Mitch:
@drgnslayr said in Mitch:
@FarmerJayhawk said in Mitch:
If we play Mitch 25 MPG at the 4 weāre so, so screwed. Heās a good shot blocker and effort guy but I really donāt know what else he gives us.
I think Mitch gives us a lot. Heās a guy who will stop opposition scoring and will win us possessions. He will give us consistency. 50/50 balls. He helps our guys with team confidence. And heās a glue guy. He will also find ways to get his points. Iām sure he has focused on scoring in his year off. Teamed with Marcus and we will be one of the better defensive teams in the nation.
Sounds perfect for 10-15 MPG backing up Dave. Iām not trying to knock Mitch, heās just limited offensively and canāt defend on the perimeter. Good shot blocker, ok rebounder for his size. We become incredibly easy to defend if he and McCormack play together. Paint is clogged, Garrett canāt drive, and weāre left with 1 guy that can shoot (Bryce). Would make Dave and Doke lineups look like the Warriors from 5 years ago.
You say Mitch is going to play 10-15 mpg backing up McCormack. My question then would be where does KUās other senior post player fit into that picture then? Silvio sure isnāt coming back to KU to ride the bench his senior year. And Mitch didnāt redshirt to play the same number of minutes he couldāve played on a better team last season. I think you are underestimating Mitch and will be wrong on what Mitch will contribute next season and what position he will play.
Mitch isnāt backing Dave up and he will play 20-25 mpg at the 4 because he is the best option at that spot. Keep underestimating him like people here have done his entire career. Heās not going to be spending a lot of time down low on the post because thatās not his game either. His PER for his career is 14.8 which higher than the other know options at that spot other than TGF who we donāt know how well heāll actually do yet and what kind of adjustment period heāll go through. 14.8 is the same as Braun, but Braun probably backs up the 1-3 spots this as a universal sub like he did the last part of last season. Ochai Agbaji who spent a lot of time at the 4 in the 4 guard look had a PER of 13.1 last year and Tristan Enaruna had a PER of 9. Jalen Wilson was a -67 for his very limited minutes in his 2 games last year and still wouldnāt have been very good even factoring the two exhibition games where he shot a combined 3-13 for 9 points in 40 minutes. Lightfoot is the best option at this point at the 4 spot.
Out of Lightfoot, Enaruna, and Wilson, Mitch is by far the best defender out of the 3, Iām going to reserve judgement on TGF because JuCo players can be very hit of miss at the high major D1 level. Does Mitch get blown by? Yes, but unlike the other options, Mitch adapted to that by becoming a very good backside shot blocker to compensate.
On offense, KU shouldnāt look the same as last year because that 2 man game with Doke and Dotson/Garrett isnāt going to be as effective. Iām sure weāll still see it at times, but that shouldnāt be the primary offensive look this year, especially with Dave and Mitch together. Youāre worried about the lane being clogged because of what happened last year. That happened because Doke couldnāt make a shot outside of 5ā last year so there was no reason to go with him beyond 5ā.
The difference this season on offense will be that Dave is a capable mid-range shooter which means defenders have to go out with him when Dave is 15ā-18ā away from the basket and Iām betting the biggest thing Dave is working on offensively is extending his range to 3 point territory to hit that top of the key and baseline 3ās. Mitch on offense isnāt someone who needs the ball or will be spending a lot of time in the post area. He will be out on the perimeter doing what he does best on offense, setting picks and screens for the guards to drive or get open looks from 3. This is where most of his points will come from is of off the pick or screen and rolls where his man abandons him. If he gets back to what did as a sophomore hitting 35% from 3, thatās exactly what KU needs from the 4 spot this year because thatās not the position where scoring needs to come from this year because the 4 will be the weakest position for KU on both ends this season.
This is what Iām expecting Mitchās stat line to look like next season. 20-25 mpg, 5-7 PPG, 4-5 rpg, 1-2 apg, 2 bpg while shooting about 60% from the field, 35% from 3, and about 70% from the FT line.
His PER is exclusively playing the 5. Heās never played the 4 at KU and just assuming he can come in and be effective at it is a reach. I donāt see any evidence he can be a consistent threat from 3. Heās take only 30 3ās his entire career, not like we have any real body of work there. And if you believe FT% is a leading indicator of 3PT% (the analytics suggest it is) then youāre expecting a career 53% FT shooter to be consistently good from 3. Iām just not counting on a guy thatās made 10 his entire career being a threat. I doubt he gets close to 70% on FTās. A near 20 point jump is A LOT.
I think our best lineup will be Garrett, Thompson, Braun, Ochai, McCormack. Garrett is going to be really good at PG, and obviously Braun and Bryce can shoot. Tyon will be a key reserve along with Harris. Heās got the size to play the 4 (6ā7, 7ā wingspan) and can rebound.
I donāt know exactly what weāll get from Silvio. I hope he can crack the rotation because heās very talented, just it hasnāt clicked for him yet. Ideally he pushes McCormack at the 5, but I doubt it happens. I donāt expect much from Wilson either. Probably needs at least another year. Weāll see on Enaruna, he may have the highest ceiling on the teams and seems like a candidate for a big jump if we can have a decent offseason.
Iām worried about playing essentially 3 guys who arenāt real threats from 3: Dave, Marcus (TBD), and Mitch at the same time. And itās not like Ochai lit it up last year either (33%). If everything has to be inside the 3 point line weāll be woefully inefficient even if Dave makes every midrange jumper.
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@FarmerJayhawk Mitch played the 5 out of necessity, not convenience. Mitchās game is built to play a stretch 4 role. Getting to play his natural position is going to help him out and make him look better. The 70% number isnāt some random number I pulled out of thin air. Mitch was 72% from the stripe as a sophomore. That was also a season where Mitch shot 35% from 3. Mitch took 25 FTās that season and 35 as a junior and regressed for some reason. Mitch is definitely capable of hitting those numbers again and I think playing his natural position will make him feel more comfortable on the floor. Even with that regression from the FT line and from 3, Mitch was still at 61% from 2 which he did as a sophomore and junior.
Mitch doesnāt need to take a lot of shots, playing 20-25 mpg, Mitch would probably end up taking 4-5 shots per game with most of those coming off of screen or pick where he either pops a 3 or gets an easy lay up rolling to basket off that action.
With your best line up, which end of the floor are you talking about? Offense or defense because it isnāt the same line up depending on which end of the floor.
If you want the best offensive line up, Ochai Agbaji is not on the floor for that because heās still not good offensively yet. I said in a post above what I think the best offensive line up is and youāll notice I have Braun and Thompson in that line up because you can stick one on the wing on the away from the screen, the other shooter in the corner screen side and Dave on the baseline on the block opposite the screen side and you have spacing and room to work for everyone.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 said in Mitch:
@FarmerJayhawk Mitch played the 5 out of necessity, not convenience. Mitchās game is built to play a stretch 4 role. Getting to play his natural position is going to help him out and make him look better. The 70% number isnāt some random number I pulled out of thin air. Mitch was 72% from the stripe as a sophomore. That was also a season where Mitch shot 35% from 3. Mitch took 25 FTās that season and 35 as a junior and regressed for some reason. Mitch is definitely capable of hitting those numbers again and I think playing his natural position will make him feel more comfortable on the floor. Even with that regression from the FT line and from 3, Mitch was still at 61% from 2 which he did as a sophomore and junior.
Mitch doesnāt need to take a lot of shots, playing 20-25 mpg, Mitch would probably end up taking 4-5 shots per game with most of those coming off of screen or pick where he either pops a 3 or gets an easy lay up rolling to basket off that action.
With your best line up, which end of the floor are you talking about? Offense or defense because it isnāt the same line up depending on which end of the floor.
If you want the best offensive line up, Ochai Agbaji is not on the floor for that because heās still not good offensively yet. I said in a post above what I think the best offensive line up is and youāll notice I have Braun and Thompson in that line up because you can stick one on the wing on the away from the screen, the other shooter in the corner screen side and Dave on the baseline on the block opposite the screen side and you have spacing and room to work for everyone.
Just wondering why then he played 0 minutes when he was available to play the 4? We couldāve played him with Doke in 17-18 once Silvio was in the fold. I mean itās easy to cherry pick his career highs and say thatās what he actually is as a player since weāve already seen him for 3 years. I do think if heās a stretch 4 his 2Pt% will go down since he wonāt be in the post, which limits his efficiency.
Itās definitely the best offensive lineup. Like you, Iām expecting a jump from someone: Ochai. He has the highest ceiling of anyone on the roster and just turned 20 two days ago. I actually expect Braun to make a nice jump, āI think Tristan Enaruna and Christian Braun, to me, would be the guys I could see would make the biggest leaps just because usually that freshman to sophomore year is a huge leap year,ā Self says. āAlso Ochai. I think Ochai will make another big leap as well.ā
So Iām not exactly pulling rabbits out of a hat here. Iām thinking Braun is similar in reality to the guy we saw in league play: 50% from 3 (on more attempts than Mitch has taken in his entire career), 90% from the line, PER of 16.5. His 2 point percentage should go up as well since heāll add strength and become a better finisher. I like TGF a LOT too. I expect him to start slow but heās a future pro.
And that lineup is better offensively than our best defensive lineup is defensively, so you go with it. Itās our 5 best guys all on the floor at once, and they fit together. Bill himself says weāll play small the majority of the time and Iām inclined to believe him, āIf the roster returns as expected, I think weāll have more depth on the perimeter than weāve had in a long time,ā Self says. āWeāll definitely be playing more people than this year.ā
