My NCAA Prediction . . .
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Before it begins in 3 weeks, we could well see cancellation of the whole tournament. The Coronavirus isn’t going away soon, and it has taken less than a month to go from a regional epidemic causing a few travel bans to parts of China, to a major international emergency that is closing some borders, disrupting businesses, creating havoc in the stock market (over 10% down in a week), and roiling travel arrangements throughout the world. Millions in quarantine in China, thousands in Europe with parts of Italy completely closed off, and it has now spread to Brazil during Carnival and to at least 1 airline flight attendant who served hundreds before having symptoms.
I cannot see how it will play out, but so far 3 countries including Japan have closed all schools and the CDC says we need to start preparing here (“a matter of when, not if, it spreads to the US”).
Now we also have it spreading to at least 1 person in California and 1 in Germany for whom no known contact with anyone positive can be traced. With test kits only available in 3 states for now, it is going to get very very strange out there.
It is not as fatal as some other diseases, but this one is pretty unique because people can be infectious before having symptoms. That is why these shutdowns are occurring on such a large scale. I can only imagine how the CDC will react to thousands of basketball fans fanning out across the country if we see very many more cases of spreading without identified vectors.
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@mayjay said in My NCAA Prediction . . .:
Before it begins in 3 weeks, we could well see cancellation of the whole tournament. The Coronavirus isn’t going away soon, and it has taken less than a month to go from a regional epidemic causing a few travel bans to parts of China, to a major international emergency that is closing some borders, disrupting businesses, creating havoc in the stock market (over 10% down in a week), and roiling travel arrangements throughout the world. Millions in quarantine in China, thousands in Europe with parts of Italy completely closed off, and it has now spread to Brazil during Carnival and to at least 1 airline flight attendant who served hundreds before having symptoms.
I cannot see how it will play out, but so far 3 countries including Japan have closed all schools and the CDC says we need to start preparing here (“a matter of when, not if, it spreads to the US”).
Now we also have it spreading to at least 1 person in California and 1 in Germany for whom no known contact with anyone positive can be traced. With test kits only available in 3 states for now, it is going to get very very strange out there.
It is not as fatal as some other diseases, but this one is pretty unique because people can be infectious before having symptoms. That is why these shutdowns are occurring on such a large scale. I can only imagine how the CDC will react to thousands of basketball fans fanning out across the country if we see very many more cases of spreading without identified vectors.
You just never know. You got the leaders telling us one thing , saying they have this under control , and the cases are going down - -then you have the CDC telling us different. I know this , we were at 14 , then 15 and then I heard of now 60 confirmed infections here in the US What’s crazy is like in San Francisco with the ladies case they having a run on masks , BUT the dam CDC advising people NOT to be buying the masks because the medical personel need the mask when working with the infected people - -umm you could dam well bet I would be buying mine , they say there are none on shelves now.
I heard the virus is now spread to 50 Countries, The US and South Korea have called a halt to the joint manauvers . - The sports teams the Japanese Pro baseball teams are now playing their games in empty stadiums it could very well prove very interesting
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@jayballer73 said in My NCAA Prediction . . .:
the Japanese Pro baseball teams are now playing their games in empty stadiums
That could be what happens with the tourney–empty arenas. (CBS might be thrilled with the ratings.)
At least Oklahoma and Texas (if the Horns could somehow get in) might feel at home!
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@mayjay lol
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@mayjay said in My NCAA Prediction . . .:
Before it begins in 3 weeks, we could well see cancellation of the whole tournament. The Coronavirus isn’t going away soon, and it has taken less than a month to go from a regional epidemic causing a few travel bans to parts of China, to a major international emergency that is closing some borders, disrupting businesses, creating havoc in the stock market (over 10% down in a week), and roiling travel arrangements throughout the world. Millions in quarantine in China, thousands in Europe with parts of Italy completely closed off, and it has now spread to Brazil during Carnival and to at least 1 airline flight attendant who served hundreds before having symptoms.
I cannot see how it will play out, but so far 3 countries including Japan have closed all schools and the CDC says we need to start preparing here (“a matter of when, not if, it spreads to the US”).
Now we also have it spreading to at least 1 person in California and 1 in Germany for whom no known contact with anyone positive can be traced. With test kits only available in 3 states for now, it is going to get very very strange out there.
It is not as fatal as some other diseases, but this one is pretty unique because people can be infectious before having symptoms. That is why these shutdowns are occurring on such a large scale. I can only imagine how the CDC will react to thousands of basketball fans fanning out across the country if we see very many more cases of spreading without identified vectors.
It has definitely got my attention. The world - our government included - so dropped the ball on this one (both Parties too concerned about the markets). There should have been an outright ban on travel to and from China - including connecting destinations - as soon as the first case was reported. Hell, as late as day before yesterday Air China still had flights out of NYC.
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There are simply too many people on the earth. Something like this is bound to happen. Last good pandemic was the Spanish flu (started right here in western KS) killed 100s of millions.
Thankfully this is survivable. The death rate isn’t nearly as high as the middle eastern version of the corona virus.
At least we can now see how quickly the zombie apocalypse would spread across the globe. Lol
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We don’t yet know how dangerous the new coronavirus is, and we won’t know until more data comes in. The mortality rate is around 2% in the epicentre of the outbreak, Hubei province, and less than that elsewhere. For comparison, seasonal flu typically has a mortality rate below 1% and is thought to cause about 400,000 deaths each year globally.
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https://www.kansascity.com/sports/college/big-12/university-of-kansas/article240704636.html
Thoughts on regional choice if we get it?
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@BigBad said in My NCAA Prediction . . .:
https://www.kansascity.com/sports/college/big-12/university-of-kansas/article240704636.html
Thoughts on regional choice if we get it?
Houston for sure. Indy is prime location for a lot of teams in the tournament where their fans will be within 3-4 hour drives. Thoughts?
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Houston, but they need to take care of business first.
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Indy is only a 2 hour drive for Dayton who could be #2 seed in Midwest.
I agree with Houston.
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@BigBad said in My NCAA Prediction . . .:
Indy is only a 2 hour drive for Dayton who could be #2 seed in Midwest.
I agree with Houston.
Not only that you send Baylor packing somewhere else.
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@BigBad Not that Dayton scares me, but Houston sounds good (mosquitoes not bad yet, fans will travel). Which bracket is Houston, Midwest?
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Question. Who could be a very tough 2 seed?
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@Marco Houston is the South, Indy Midwest. I am pulling for Indy as it opens up the possibility of travelling to a game there for me and lots of Chicago alums/fans.
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@wissox said in My NCAA Prediction . . .:
@Marco Houston is the South, Indy Midwest. I am pulling for Indy as it opens up the possibility of travelling to a game there for me and lots of Chicago alums/fans.
To me really not worth input seeing as how I’m not going to be able to go wherever it is. However they were talking about this on our sports program today and it was brought out might be better in Houston for the reason of easy access with flights , multiple , multiple flights going in there as where Indy there is like 2 they said. - However they did turn around and say people could always fly into Chicago and really not that bad a drive from Chicago to Indy soo I don’t know lol
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@Marco said in My NCAA Prediction . . .:
Question. Who could be a very tough 2 seed?
they were talking either region your going to have to face tough teams. It could either be Dayton in the Midwest OR they could always move Florida State to the South. Either way gonna be a tough opponent, but not worrying overly either about being able to play with either one. - - ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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@jayballer73 said in My NCAA Prediction . . .:
@wissox said in My NCAA Prediction . . .:
@Marco Houston is the South, Indy Midwest. I am pulling for Indy as it opens up the possibility of travelling to a game there for me and lots of Chicago alums/fans.
To me really not worth input seeing as how I’m not going to be able to go wherever it is. However they were talking about this on our sports program today and it was brought out might be better in Houston for the reason of easy access with flights , multiple , multiple flights going in there as where Indy there is like 2 they said. - However they did turn around and say people could always fly into Chicago and really not that bad a drive from Chicago to Indy soo I don’t know lol
Indy is about an 8 hour drive from Lawrence and Houston about an 11-12 hour drive from Houston. I don’t know about the proximity of the airport in Indy to their arena, but in Houston, unless you’re flying Southwest into the smaller airport, it’s not convenient at all to get from our big airport to downtown where Toyota Center is.
Selfishly, I’d rather have KU in Houston so I could go see them in S16 and E8 games, but with Baylor being a pretty strong lock for a 1 seed as well, there’s no way in hell KU gets the 1 seed in Houston. KU is going to be the 1 seed in Indy, Baylor in Houston, and Gonzaga in LA, and whoever gets the 4th 1 seed will be in New York.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 They changed the rule recently. The number one over all one seed gets to pick the both the round of 64/32 site and round of 16/8 site.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 said in My NCAA Prediction . . .:
@jayballer73 said in My NCAA Prediction . . .:
@wissox said in My NCAA Prediction . . .:
@Marco Houston is the South, Indy Midwest. I am pulling for Indy as it opens up the possibility of travelling to a game there for me and lots of Chicago alums/fans.
To me really not worth input seeing as how I’m not going to be able to go wherever it is. However they were talking about this on our sports program today and it was brought out might be better in Houston for the reason of easy access with flights , multiple , multiple flights going in there as where Indy there is like 2 they said. - However they did turn around and say people could always fly into Chicago and really not that bad a drive from Chicago to Indy soo I don’t know lol
Indy is about an 8 hour drive from Lawrence and Houston about an 11-12 hour drive from Houston. I don’t know about the proximity of the airport in Indy to their arena, but in Houston, unless you’re flying Southwest into the smaller airport, it’s not convenient at all to get from our big airport to downtown where Toyota Center is.
Selfishly, I’d rather have KU in Houston so I could go see them in S16 and E8 games, but with Baylor being a pretty strong lock for a 1 seed as well, there’s no way in hell KU gets the 1 seed in Houston. KU is going to be the 1 seed in Indy, Baylor in Houston, and Gonzaga in LA, and whoever gets the 4th 1 seed will be in New York.
Well from what I heard the # 1 overall seed gets to pick what region they want. - So if KU ends up being the # overall they can pick the South and the Houston region instead of Indy, that’s what they were saying anyways. - -Like I said it’s not going to matter to me cause I can’t go wherever but just sayin
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This tournament is going to be interesting. All of the good teams are flawed in some way. But all of them can be outright dominant in some way as well. I’d put the tiers this way:
Tier One: Kansas, Baylor, Dayton, Gonzaga
Tier Two: Duke, Louisville, San Diego State, Florida State, Kentucky, Maryland, Villanova
Tier Three: Creighton, Seton Hall, Auburn, Penn State, Oregon, BYU, Iowa, Michigan, West Virginia, Colorado, Texas Tech, Ohio State
Tier Four: Michigan State, Houston, Arizona, Butler, Virginia, Florida, Marquette, Arizona, Illinois, Utah State, New Mexico State, Stephen F. Austin and probably a half dozen or so other mid major teams.
So the tiers give us a pretty good layout. It’s likely that any team from Tier Three can beat any team from Tier Two, but probably not from Tier One unless they play perfectly. Any team from Tier Two can beat any team from Tier One, but obviously could lose to the Threes or the other Twos. The Fours probably can’t beat the Ones, but could beat the Twos on the right day, and could beat the Threes. But the Fours could also lose to basically anyone else at any time.
This tournament could be really unpredictable, because I am not sure that any team doesn’t have at least seven or eight teams that can beat them on any given day. We worry about Dayton, Duke, and Kentucky, but Louisville and Maryland could be a problem, and on the right day, I’d worry about Seton Hall or Auburn. And that doesn’t count San Diego State, Baylor, Gonzaga and others.
And the thing is, that’s the case for literally every single team out there.
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@justanotherfan said in My NCAA Prediction . . .:
This tournament is going to be interesting. All of the good teams are flawed in some way. But all of them can be outright dominant in some way as well. I’d put the tiers this way:
Tier One: Kansas, Baylor, Dayton, Gonzaga
Tier Two: Duke, Louisville, San Diego State, Florida State, Kentucky, Maryland, Villanova
Tier Three: Creighton, Seton Hall, Auburn, Penn State, Oregon, BYU, Iowa, Michigan, West Virginia, Colorado, Texas Tech, Ohio State
Tier Four: Michigan State, Houston, Arizona, Butler, Virginia, Florida, Marquette, Arizona, Illinois, Utah State, New Mexico State, Stephen F. Austin and probably a half dozen or so other mid major teams.
So the tiers give us a pretty good layout. It’s likely that any team from Tier Three can beat any team from Tier Two, but probably not from Tier One unless they play perfectly. Any team from Tier Two can beat any team from Tier One, but obviously could lose to the Threes or the other Twos. The Fours probably can’t beat the Ones, but could beat the Twos on the right day, and could beat the Threes. But the Fours could also lose to basically anyone else at any time.
This tournament could be really unpredictable, because I am not sure that any team doesn’t have at least seven or eight teams that can beat them on any given day. We worry about Dayton, Duke, and Kentucky, but Louisville and Maryland could be a problem, and on the right day, I’d worry about Seton Hall or Auburn. And that doesn’t count San Diego State, Baylor, Gonzaga and others.
And the thing is, that’s the case for literally every single team out there.
Couldn’t agree more and plus there is one other team that I would shy away from till later anyways. I watched them beat Gonzaga and that is BYU. - They shoot 43 % from the three and we know how that goes from previous NCAA"s - -al la Villanova Not saying that I would run scared but like you mentioned on any given night. - -we played them early but they was missing one of their key players in that game , he went off for 28-10 on Gonzaga.
I have never seen a year so wide open as this year - -I can think of 7 teams right off without any hesitation that could win the thing this year. KU ,Kentucky , Duke , Gonzaga , Dayton , Louisville , Baylor – just a crap shoot. Trying to fill our brackets this year is going to be nuts lol. – -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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@jayballer73 The bracket is easy my friend, KU all the way!!!
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@justanotherfan Yeah, if we played either Maryland or Florida State they could match our size, would have to knock down shots.
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One thing I haven’t seen mentioned with whatever region KU may end up in (assuming we continue to hold onto the #1 overall seed) is the days they would be potentially playing. I believe at this point Omaha is a shoe-in for the 1st/2nd round which is a Friday/Sunday slate. However the S16/E8 games in Indy are Thursday/Saturday which would give KU only 3 days rest and prep time compared to Houston which is again a Friday/Sunday slate… With the injuries to Doke and Garrett looming as big concerns I think these Hawks could use all the off days they could get. I wonder if that’s going to factor in
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I’m not good at these guesses and I usually jinx everything…
I feel like Baylor is going to get the shaft. I’m predicting a Baylor/Dayton bracket. And that is a game I would LOVE to see!
I don’t think it matters who we play this year. Either we show up like we did at Baylor, or we go home early, regardless who is in our bracket.
If we show up every game, we win it all!
After us, I’m supporting Baylor this year! I’m going to miss that team. Caught many of their games including their thriller last night.
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Scary part is 4/5 of that starting rotation could return and they have the potential to be just as much a pain in the conference next year
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@justanotherfan Not a bad list. I would move Seton Hall and Creighton up to tier 2 and maybe Iowa as well. Seton Hall is legit.
I would also move Maryland off of tier two.
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I do NOT want to see Michigan State.
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@BeddieKU23 said in My NCAA Prediction . . .:
Scary part is 4/5 of that starting rotation could return and they have the potential to be just as much a pain in the conference next year
I welcome the challenge. It’s going to be interesting next year. I think we could lose a bit defensively due to no Dok but the offense could be better.
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Yep… but I expect a few early departures for the NBA. Then it is a question of gelling another team like this one. And players staying healthy.
I’d keep an eye on TTech next year, too. Ramsey possibly returning?
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@drgnslayr said in My NCAA Prediction . . .:
Yep… but I expect a few early departures for the NBA. Then it is a question of gelling another team like this one. And players staying healthy.
I’d keep an eye on TTech next year, too.
I expect Butler will test and I think he is a pro now but I haven’t seen if he is likely to go. Mock’s have had him in the early 2nd round. I don’t think anyone else is likely to leave them but they did stockpile talent through the transfer route again and got 3 Top 100 kids to sign in the fall. Baylor isn’t going away.
Agree on Tech. Moretti may go play overseas which would hurt but its also probably the reason why they were able to sign a Top 20 player in the country at PG. 2 other Top 100 kids and a transfer join a very young squad. I could see Edwards, McCullar & Shannon taking big leaps for them next season.
I’m expecting the Big-12 to be improved Top to Bottom next year but that’s before transfer season hits… If the NCAA passes that 1 year transfer rule there is no telling what is going to happen
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@BShark Neither do I.
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RE Seeding: I fully expect KU to be matched up in a bracket with Houston (Grimes) or Iowa (Moss) just for the NCAA’s amusement.
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@BShark said in My NCAA Prediction . . .:
I do NOT want to see Michigan State.
I would upvote this 10 times if I could.
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@BShark said in My NCAA Prediction . . .:
I do NOT want to see Michigan State.
I mostly agree - I kinda like watching them lose, but otherwise it’s boring basketball…yeah I know what you meant, just playing.
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Everything now comes down to who is healthy.
For instance, if KU lost either Doke or Dotson, I would drop them to Tier 2. If they lost both, they would probably be Tier 3. But every team in the country is like that. If they lose a certain guy or two, they drop at least one tier, maybe two tiers. Nobody has enough margin of error to make it through a major injury for more than maybe one game.
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Are we even going to have a tournament?
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@Marco said in My NCAA Prediction . . .:
Are we even going to have a tournament?
looking a little un-settled
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@Marco said in My NCAA Prediction . . .:
Are we even going to have a tournament?
Let’s think this through…if it is cancelled, maybe we can get another Helms Championship!
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@Marco said in My NCAA Prediction . . .:
Are we even going to have a tournament?
Probably going to be a tournament. It may be that some/all games are played without spectators.
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Let’s get a vote on what we think will happen:
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The NCAA Tournament will continue as usual but with a few adjustments, like hand sanitizers at every gate. Maybe require masks.
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The NCAA Tournament will continue but without an audience.
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The NCAA Tournament will be cancelled all together.
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I think somewhere between 1 and 2.
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@drgnslayr said in My NCAA Prediction . . .:
Let’s get a vote on what we think will happen:
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The NCAA Tournament will continue as usual but with a few adjustments, like hand sanitizers at every gate. Maybe require masks.
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The NCAA Tournament will continue but without an audience.
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The NCAA Tournament will be cancelled all together.
Would think 2 from what I’ve been hearing
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@drgnslayr said in My NCAA Prediction . . .:
Let’s get a vote on what we think will happen:
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The NCAA Tournament will continue as usual but with a few adjustments, like hand sanitizers at every gate. Maybe require masks.
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The NCAA Tournament will continue but without an audience.
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The NCAA Tournament will be cancelled all together.
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I’m going with #1. $$$ prevails.
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Moved this to a new thread…
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@KirkIsMyHinrich I hope to god it is between 1 and 2. If they feel the need to enact 3 then the damn thing is spreading much faster than I thought that it would or could. The dumb fucks - yes, I’m saying it - just won’t stay home and self-quarantine, will they?
