Why We Didn't Win -- Look Beyond Made Threes
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BigBad said:
We had one player all year that could create for himself and more importantly create for others, Devonte. It’s the reason the guy had to play 40 MPG. For all the talk of Malik in the postseason he is really just a streaky spot up guy with ZERO ability to drive, draw, and dish. Svi will drive but only left and is an easy scout. It is just like the Washington game. Play up on us and make us drive it. All the talk of modern basketball and Nova being able to shoot 3s from every position, people forget the triple threat. Their guys also have the threat to drive. Big difference.
I think this will ultimately be a big difference next year. Dedric is a guy that can get himself buckets. Dotson and Grimes are creators. Dotson is very fast.
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@BShark I’m hoping we at least one guy that can stop the dribble drive, we have not had that in years IMO.
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@betterfireE well I’m hoping and I know that your more likely then not in the minority. Embarrassment? - -I’m feeling that your one of these fair weathered fans that always thinks that it un acceptable. unless we play that perfect next to perfect game. - -Embarrassment? - -you ever think that we might of just plain and simple got beat by the better team? - - It’s not the end of the world - the sky is not falling to lose to another # 1 seed - - a team that has been in what the top 5 of the top 25 all year long? - A embarrassment would be to lose to that # 16 seed in the 1st round of the tourney.
This team - this team right here , a team that was suppose to be one of our weaker teams in years but yet accomplished more then some of our more talented teams did in one of the rougher regions of the tourney - -Duke - -Michigan State etc. - -This team that people was saying this would be the year that our streak could quite possibly be broken of straight championships?
A team that not only won the Conference Championship - -AGAIN - A team that won the post Season Conference Championship - - A team that won the Midwest Regional - -A team that advanced to the Final four - -let me ask did our last years team as good as it was , with the National POY - with a 1st round pick in the NBA at the top of the 1st round art that - -did that team win the Post Season Conference Championship? - - Did that team win the Regional? - - Did that team make the final four? - the answer is - -a resounding - -NO . - but yet this team - -this team that’s an embarrassment did all the above with a make shift line up - -a team that had to have a football walk on try out to try and add depth - -any kind of depth to their roster - - a team that had to have another walk on a 6’4 walk on play quality minutes for some stretch ( Clay Young ) -a Team that had their post man go down from yet another injury for a little while - -This team yet accomplished more then other recent more talented teams of ours failed to do.
Embarrassment - -ummm no - NOT AT All at least not to the fans that really knows more then just the final score. - -This team sure the hell didn’t embarrassment me - or a lot of others that I know - - I’m proud of this team for what they did with what they had - -A team that had a kid that was playing in the NCAA tourney that was still in high school just a few months back and tossed into the fire - -Embarrassed ? - -Umm no I think not - -If you take your blinders off and wake up and really realize - they just got beat by the better team plain and simple - -that game was no fluke - - True they might have more 3’s then they have in the past - -but they have always been a really good 3 pt shooting team- -They are just a bad match up - -a very bad match up - - not just us -but for a lot of others also -that’s why they are 35-4 on the season - -that’s why they are playing for the National Championship. - - NOT because this was an embarrassment. - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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We thought we could beat them with Doke on the inside. For every basket Doke made, Spellman made several from the perimeter because neither Doke or De Sousa can cover anyone out there. We overextended, and double teamed on defense practically every possession, leaving someone wide open. On defense, they crowded the 3 point line as good as Tech did against us, and when we drove, they collapsed on us, and made it extremely difficult to get to the basket. This was a total team loss, as we were out coached, and out played. I think if we had played our best game of the year, we still would’ve lost. Give them their due- they will pummel Michigan, and win their 2nd national championship in 3 years. It’s been awhile since we’ve really been good on defense- my hope is next year we’ll finally have a good defensive team again.
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kjayhawks said:
@BShark I’m hoping we at least one guy that can stop the dribble drive, we have not had that in years IMO.
Dotson has the attitude and the tools. Grimes has the tools. Next year can end up being a great defensive team, but with so many FR it will take time.
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People will see the loss differently. Just remember that, no one likes to see this team lose and the fashion in which we did it wasn’t pretty.
I mean the announcers kept saying how shocked they were during the game how the game was going they certainly expected it to be close and competitive and it wasn’t.
I happen to feel nothing from this loss personally. It was over early, there was never a true moment KU was making a comeback. Sucks, we played so great to get here. Maybe we shot our shot against Duke. The mental hurdles we crossed beating them was huge. Losing to nova 2 yrs ago was tough to take given how close it was and in the nature of how the game got away from us. This one just felt over after 4 possessions which is never a good feeling
Anyways I wouldn’t take others opinions of the loss too serious, we are all a grieving bunch today. So close to glory but yet still so far…
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betterfireE said:
We just looked totally unprepared. And the Doke game plan was flat out dumb. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a team give up on perimeter defense like that. This was an embarrassment that tarnishes the prior success of this season.
No, it didn’t.
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kjayhawks said:
@HighEliteMajor I agree for the most part, rewatched some of the game this morning. I’ve mentioned it several times the last few years and I believe it to be true, we do not have the athletes that we need to win in the NCAA tournament (outside of JJ and Mason). Before 2014 very seldom did I come into a games thinking the other team is just better than us in terms of athletic ability, since 2014 it’s almost every game vs power 5 comp. Whomever is evaluating these guys isn’t doing anywhere near as good as Villanova, our recruiting classes have been better more often than not but they look like they have more talent and athletic ability than us.
Wow, a team hitting a lot more shots in one game than they did any other time becomes an indictment of recruiting for a period of years?
I think some people here need a major dose of overreaction antidote.
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@KUSTEVE Good points. I wish someone would take Bill Self back to elementary school, and explain that 3 is bigger than 2. HEM was also making this point. Anyway, I have enjoyed reading (and posting a little bit). See you next year.
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I am your choir and happily preached to.
PHOF
TOTAL 3 PTAs were the strategy that drove victory; that kept KU from reducing the game to tactics after tip off.
Everything else Nova did was tactics in support of the MORE THAN 3pt strategy.
A few years back I argued for shooting threes EVERY possesion and I still know this is the correct strategy and where the game will gravitate without further rule changes.
If KU shot all treys every possession and Nova shot the number and percent it actually did, KU would have won even at .35 make rate.
From the dominant strategy Nova imposes, KU simply defaulted into more and more complexity and unforeseen consequence.
Self actually magnified the advantage of Nova’s MORE 3PTAs strategy by choosing to drive to try to foul up Nova for 30 futile minutes.
KU became a 2 pt team playing a 3 pt team.
And in PPP terms more like a 1.5 ppp team playing a 3ppp team for 30 futile minutes.
Self made the worst move he could have made; I.e., trying to drive on a team the refs would never allow to be fouled up.
Perfect strategic storm beat downs occur when one coach picks an unbeatable and executable strategy and the opposing coach selects the a strategy that magnifies the advantage of the other team.
Self did this.
It’s counter intuitive, but when you are faced with a great three point shooting team the refs won’t call fouls on, your only chance is to shoot enough more treys than the opponent to offset your expected trough make rate. It’s simple mathematics and probability.
Note: I was not smart enough to forecast this spike trey before the game. I even suggested the driving strategy Self tried and said it probably wouldn’t work because refs wouldn’t call the fouls. But I am saying henceforth, any coach stupid enough to shoot less 3PTAs than the opponent deserves to lose and be horse whipped if one can find a horse! (Kudos to SJ Perelman if I recall correctly).
KU was probably going to shoot 35%.
Wright was probably going to increase 3PTAs to try to exploit our off night and any chance of Nova having an off night.
Self’s logical move was to in crease our 3PTAs to 50-55, if Nova shot 40 treys making 45%.
Shooting fewer treys against a good trey shooting team would be like saying, well, the enemy has switched from semi-automatics to automatics, so we are going to switch from semi automatics to single shots.
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Combine higher 3PTAs than opponents with higher basketball IQ training and we are gold.
It will take both.
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Villanova did not make “lucky” shots. By and large, their threes in the first half were either wide open or open shots. KU insisted on doubling the post, and Villanova has been deadly all year when they get the defense rotating. KU closed out late and Villanova punished them for it.
That’s where the lack of adjustments hurt us. Once we saw that Nova was able to diagnose the double team and swing the ball to open shooters, we should have called off the double teaming. We didn’t and the Wildcats feasted.
That’s not luck. That’s making open shots. Had we gotten that same quality of looks for our guys, we could have shot that way. We have shot that well for stretches, but typically when we have gotten hot, teams take away the highest quality looks.
Remember from Friday when one of our Bucketeers was mentioning how Svi hit some pretty ridiculous shots (10 in a row if I remember correctly) at the end of the shootaround.
We gave Villanova shootaround quality shots and they made them. That isn’t lucky. That isn’t even surprising. Give good shooters good looks and they will make them.
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Some are under the impression that KU did not have a plan or had the wrong plan and will not even consider that maybe the players either did not follow the game plan or were just not a good match for Villanova’s personnel. This story illustrates Coach Self’s frustration by the lack of execution.
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You to are making the point clearly.
There was almost no luck involved in Nova’s performance, except the good fortune of Self and KU electing a drive strategy that magnified the advantage of the strategy that Nova has won with all but 4-5 times this season.
Frankly, Nova only shot a little above its season average for the game.
This game could have been a MUCH bigger blow out, if KU had had one of its 19% trey games, of if Nova had had one of its peak shooting games.
KU was very, very VERY fortunate to “only” be beaten 95-79.
Self is going to learn something crucial from this experience.
This was a wood shed lesson that no one could overlook.
The lesson is college basketball is increasingly about:
a.) who can shoot the most open look 3ptas with the best shooters that are the hardest for defenders to alter their shots (tallest); and
b.) who can force the opposing team out the farthest with defense, while still being able to deny blow bys at the rim.
The game is now first and foremost about using point guards and drivers to force help NOT to take short threes, but to create wide open kick outs.
EVERYTHING offensive action that does NOT contribute to creating an open look trey EVERY possession is to be jettisoned.
Except when defending a huge lead with ten to go, no 2 point dunk should EVER be taken instead of a 3 PTA. Period.
What Nova did to KU means the cat is out of the bag.
Every coach with a bunch of long three point shooters and a guard that can drive it can win any game simply by taking 10 more 3ptas than an opponent.
Over the next five years, we can expect the average number of 3 PTAs to climb steadily from 25 to 35 to 45 to 55per game.
Three point shooting attempts are headed for the asymptote of the possible curve of total possessions.
Hide bound thinking is the only thing that has made it take so long to occur.
Balance between inside and outside scoring is obsolete.
Balance between corner treys from both corners is the new balance to achieve.
The new stressor of offense is the long corner shooter–the corner shooter that is too tall for his defender to block, even if he gets to the corner in time with a hand up.
The new stressor of defense is the defense that can guard trey shooters out to 30-35 feet to deny them open looks.
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Only idiots claim Self had no plan for the Nova game.
Self had the exact wrong plan for what Wright schemed for Nova: 40 3PTAs on offense, and stretching to take away KU’s uncontested treys and giving them the mid range 2. Self told his players to take what they gave KU, as was his custom, and hoped that their ball screen defenses could deny the guard penetration that collapsed KU’s help defense for kicks to completely open looks at high percentage spots.
Wright was right. Self was wrong.
Even when KU executed what Self wanted it could not close the gap, even when Nova cooled to 35% for the entire second half!
Even genius makes mistakes.
Self gambles everything on a strategy he thinks has big risks, but big return.
Thus, he wins often and often beats teams that can’t counter what he does.
Wright took him one better. Wright gambled everything on a strategy that couldn’t lose with Self having KU drive. Wright even upped the ante by shooting more than their average number to 3ptas in expectation of Self driving, and as a hedge against Nova having an off shooting night.
Likely as not, if Nova had shot 35% the first half, Wright would have had them shoot even more treys.
This is where Self has to get to.
The worse KU’s three point shooting is, the more 3pt shots KU should take, when KU is playing another 3 point shooting team.
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I’m amazed you watched the game a second time! I, true confessions here, turned it off shortly after Doke blocked a shot and they scooped it up and made a 35 footer. My only quibble with your excellent post @HighEliteMajor is that Nova made way above their season average percentage wise in the first half when they built the huge lead.
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Frankly, Nova only shot a little above its season average for the game.
This game could have been a MUCH bigger blow out, if KU had had one of its 19% trey games, of if Nova had had one of its peak shooting games.
Villanova’s 3 point shooting percentage for the game is misleading. It was the 13 of 21 or insane 62% that it shot in the first 17 minutes of the game that allowed it to build a 17 point lead that basically won the game.
In the second half Nova shot 5 of 14 or 36% while KU shot 5 of 15 or 32% and the score for the second half was a measly 1 point difference or 48-47. Can you find another game where Nova shot 62% for most of one half and I don’t mean by taking a few but 21 shots? The first half of the game Nova shot way, way, way above its average and that decided the game. Had Nova shot its average during that time, say 9 of 21 or 42% that is a 12 point difference and this is a close game.
KU was very, very VERY fortunate to “only” be beaten 95-79.
I believe it is more correct to say that Nova was VERY fortunate to shoot that ridiculous % in the first half, which it obviously could not maintain in the second half, otherwise this is a different game.
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@HighEliteMajor Like @wissox i thought the most amazing thing about your top notch post was that you had the stomach to watch the game again. It was one of those games were you could just feel it was over VERY early on. I will admit in an effort to not embarrass myself and lose my mind, i watched very little of the 2nd half and watched a movie instead.
What bothers me so much is that it is becomming a habit for us to lose in such a way that we humiliate ourselves on a national stage. Vick falling down and rolling around muliple times is the perfect example of not showing the world who we really were all year. 3 years in a row we have done this. I dont mind losing to a better team. I hate it but i can live with it. Laying a total egg in the E8 or F4 not so much. Maybe that is why we don’t get more national respect.
I do find it ironic that the only way to win this game would have required Bill to adopt the ultimate fools gold game plan. I know he was saying Let if fly, but deep down i bet Wright knew bill well enough that bill would never launch 50 3s. He still wanted to pound the post. Wright appears to own bill at this point. He has embarrased him twice now on the big boy stage.
It was brutal to watch the first time. You are a better man than me to watch it a second.
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@jaybate-1.0 But don’t you think they will move the 3 pt line back…which might change that strategy?
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@Fightsongwriter I Think we got too satisfied with being there and slept walked for the first 8 minutes. They got 22-4 early but once we settled in even with their hot shooting, they never really got us down more. That first wave won them the game. It’s pretty normal normal to see some beat downs in the EE and FF, lots of teams are just happy to be there (we’ve been on both sides of them). I disagree that we laid a total egg vs Nova in 16, that was damn good game, now we did against Oregon last year and Nova Saturday.
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@Fightsongwriter @wissox It was actually easier to watch the second time. I was watching to see if what I initially thought was true. It seemed to me that Nova’s looks were amazingly clean, many uncontested in large part. I was also looking at something really worse – how easily Nova shut down our three point shooting, and how little we did to try to create those looks.
The fact is that Nova did both – they had a gameplan to shut our three point shooting down. And they had a plan to create open looks.
The fact is that we did neither – we did not stop their open looks, we did not get open looks.
So, some simply cite Villanova’s first half shooting percentage, and we walk away? That’s it, game over?
@JayHawkFanToo Do you ever ask the question “why?” Do you ever try to look deeper? Do you want to look deeper? Do you ever, in the deepest corners of your mind, consider for a moment that there is a reason why teams make shots? @justanotherfan said, “We gave Villanova shootaround quality shots and they made them. That isn’t lucky. That isn’t even surprising. Give good shooters good looks and they will make them.” That is the painful truth. It should resonate. It is a crisp analysis that resulted in a big loss.
And there is a “why” attached to that.
The results, what we saw on the court, and demonstrates what @jaybate-1-0 said. We just had the wrong game plan for this game. That happens sometimes.
@KUSTEVE Said, “We thought we could beat them with Doke on the inside.” Right, we did. I didn’t see that as a flawed gameplan before the game. I thought our normal mix of inside and out, and driving aggressively was how we played. It just didn’t work out.
In the end, in hindsight, the volume of threes shot by Nova, based on them making at or near their season percentage, was nearly possible to overcome given our volume of threes.
One thing I wish we had an answer for, that we saw in 2016, was how aggressively they played our offense around the three point circle, attacking handoff’s etc. I wish we’d had some looks to make them pay for the overplays.
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mayjay said:
kjayhawks said:
@HighEliteMajor I agree for the most part, rewatched some of the game this morning. I’ve mentioned it several times the last few years and I believe it to be true, we do not have the athletes that we need to win in the NCAA tournament (outside of JJ and Mason). Before 2014 very seldom did I come into a games thinking the other team is just better than us in terms of athletic ability, since 2014 it’s almost every game vs power 5 comp. Whomever is evaluating these guys isn’t doing anywhere near as good as Villanova, our recruiting classes have been better more often than not but they look like they have more talent and athletic ability than us.
Wow, a team hitting a lot more shots in one game than they did any other time becomes an indictment of recruiting for a period of years?
I think some people here need a major dose of overreaction antidote.
I must have glazed over kjayhawks post before.
Some comments…
Long have KU fans bemoaned the lack of trey ballers. Well it’s hard to find elite athletes that are also elite shooters. They tend to end up in the NBA quickly.
So would you rather have Svi or Jamari?
To have guys that stay around, they need some kind of NBA deficiency. Dedric for instance is a terrible athlete* or he’d already be in the NBA. Like Perry he doesn’t really have a position in today’s NBA.
*FOR THE NBA LEVEL before anyone wants to tell me he’s a great athlete compared to 99% of the planet
Also if we are being completely honest, kids like Graham and Svi were not first choices. In their same class alone KU offered the likes of Stanley Johnson, Rashad Vaughn, Tyus Jones, Mudiay etc…
So many of these Nova players redshirted. KU fans would LOSE their mind if that happened here. Also Wright has been lucky with guys coming back. Mikal Bridges belongs in the NBA right now.
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TL;DR KU’s recruiting and who they are targeting is fine, but you don’t always land your top targets unless you are Duke.
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I heard Self say we’d need to play a near perfect game and Nova would have to be about average. I think, in hindsight, his offensive game plan was good.
KU shoots 40% average from three, we’d have two more makes: +6 pts
Doke gets at least 10 touches instead of 6, that’s at least three more makes: +6 pts
Guards only get blocked 3 times instead of 5 driving (or have fouls called): +4 pts
So, there’s 16 points right there without changing the game plan.
Nova shot 5% better than average from three… thats 2 extra makes: take off that 6 pts and it’s a totally different ballgame.
So, yes, KU had a very reasonable chance to win shooting half as many threes as Nova
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jaybate 1.0 said:
The worse KU’s three point shooting is, the more 3pt shots KU should take, when KU is playing another 3 point shooting team.
Nope. Shooting 2s at 51% is slightly better than shooting 3s at 33%.
Unless you have a plan to get more possessions than the other team, there is no advantage in shooting more threes the way KU shot against Nova.
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The KU offensive gameplan was actually quite good. KU took a couple of bad (i.e. quick) shots, but overall, what KU was doing (and trying to do) was both sound and effective.
My criticism is the defensive game plan. As @jaybate-1-0 said, the gameplan now offensively is to drive and kick to open shooters. Make guys chase the ball.
Daryl Morey (Houston Rockets GM) introduced a theory a few years ago that you basically want three types of shots - dunks/layups, three pointers and free throws. You want to minimize shots that aren’t one of those three types. The goal is to have roughly 80% of shots coming from either at the rim, or from three point range, with 20% or less being 2 point shots outside the restricted area.
Basically, it’s a mathematical argument. For good shooters, they won’t shoot all that much better from 15 feet in a game situation than they will from three point range - maybe 2-5 percentage points. So a guy that is a 45% three point shooter is likely only a 50% two point jump shooter at his best. The thing is, because of that, a guy that is a 45% three point shooter would need to shoot above 60% to make it worthwhile to shoot more than a few 2 point jumpers. It’s not just “long twos” that are bad. It’s the 14 and 15 footers, too.
Here’s a visual of the NBA shot chart from 2012-13:
Notice that shots from outside the paint are hovering just under 40%, while threes are just a few percentages below that.
Given that threes are worth 50% more, taking a two point jump shot is basically a fool’s errand if you have three point range. With the shorter college three point line, that matters double.
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@DanR And remember, you have to play to your percentages. It is the correct answer of the course of a season. And what has been shown over the course of Self’s time at Kansas, the volume of threes doesn’t move the arrow on percentages much over the course of a season. The implication that fewer may mean better looks is proven to be fallacy (and I know you’re not saying that it isn’t). @justanotherfan, I think you are spot on here. Taking a two point jumper, if scripted, would never happen but for the flow of the game. I saw a number of HS game this season. It is just amazing how the game has totally changed since I played. the shot between 5 - 19 feet is a rare occurrence (and given what you’ve posted, it should be).
Like most everyone else, I guess I don’t fault our gameplan offensively going in. We played like we’ve always played. In fact, I’d begun to feel like Malik attacking the hoop was option 1.
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Just curious what people’s opinions are on the several quick threes Newman and Devonte took. On one hand you see a guy dribble down the court and pull a moderately guarded three without any passes and think bad shot. I think I even heard self get on one of them after such a shot. But it’s not like moving the ball and running offense got any better looks. I don’t know if they are actually bad shots or not in the context of that game. Any thoughts?
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benshawks08 said:
Just curious what people’s opinions are on the several quick threes Newman and Devonte took. On one hand you see a guy dribble down the court and pull a moderately guarded three without any passes and think bad shot. I think I even heard self get on one of them after such a shot. But it’s not like moving the ball and running offense got any better looks. I don’t know if they are actually bad shots or not in the context of that game. Any thoughts?
I thought they were bad shots. I believe Kenny Smith pointed out those two shots in particular on the broadcast as saying nobody had even stepped foot in the paint when they shot them. The Newman one was worse as the defender got his hand right there as went up with it. Graham has made that shot plenty over his career but I always thought they were low percentage shots. Hero Ball at its worst
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@BeddieKU23 yeah. That was my initial reaction too. I believe the commentator pointed out you can “get that shot anytime” but the problem is we couldn’t. Whether it was our offense or their defense, the ball never made it inside out. I think I counted 3-4 of those hero ball thees. Take those away and out inabilities to create open looks from three is even more problematic.
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@JayHawkFanToo I think you (perhaps not intentionally) highlight the more overlooked aspect of the game. Yes, Villanova opened up a big lead early with the onslaught of made 3s - and carried a 15 point lead at halftime with 13 made 3s. But, as you note, Villanova scored 1 more point in the second half - 48 - with just 5 made 3s. While Villanova is a VERY good offensive team, we managed to make them look GSW-like with really bad defense. They lit us up in the second half with only 15 of their 48 points coming from 3s. This was statistically the worst defensive team under Self (by far) and it showed in this game (painfully so).
The other issue that decided the game was how poorly we played in the first 8 minutes on the offensive end. Getting down 22-4 was a function of them not only making shots (22-2 run after Doke’s first score of the game), but our inability to do so. We played them even after the initial onslaught, but just couldn’t get the stops necessary to ever really close the gap.
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@benshawks08 I think the feeling of desperation inspired those shots. We weren’t getting good looks as you noted.
@DCHawker Right, I think Nova exposed our defensive deficiencies. I think we could have really focused on guarding the three point line, during their hot stretch, perhaps playing a zone much like Duke did to us. Our zone didn’t cover the line.
It’s not that we lost. It’s just the way we lost that creates this entire discussion and has us scratching our heads. Looked like the KU/Duke semi in 1988 in the domination to start.
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Doesn’t it make you wonder why we didn’t run the same defense Nova ran?
Why did we give away a dozen or so trey baskets in that first half, when the game was really on the line?
We always had a player or two floating around in between their man and the goal… floating in “weak-side help” land.
We needed to “man up” and each player be responsible for defending 1-on-1 on their man. It sure worked with Nova… they didn’t even double down on Doke most of the time (when he got the ball in the low post).
We were well-rested for this game, but we weren’t prepared for this game. At least, that is my humble opinion.
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@benshawks08 I remember Malik taking at least 2 and Graham taking 1 3 pt shot without even passing the ball early in the possession. I also remember Newman taking 2 looong 2s with 1 foot behind the 3 pt line. Sure enough both shots were just a tad long. IIRC this was all before under 10 minutes in the 1H.
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benshawks08 said:
@BeddieKU23 yeah. That was my initial reaction too. I believe the commentator pointed out you can “get that shot anytime” but the problem is we couldn’t. Whether it was our offense or their defense, the ball never made it inside out. I think I counted 3-4 of those hero ball thees. Take those away and out inabilities to create open looks from three is even more problematic.
In the first 7-8 minutes of the game we had 8 shots total and a bunch of turnovers ( I want to say 4/5 by that point). I believe Nova had already made 6 three’s and we hadn’t even attempted one. Once it hit 22-4 panic really set in. We made that run for a few possessions going to zone but as soon as they made an open 3 panic just set right back in and we left the zone.
The team was neutralized and it didn’t seem like anything KU did to adjust was working or even looked like there was an attempt to adjust. It just felt like once the score was getting out of hand the players were unable to mentally shake the deficit and play 0-0 ball which led to forced shots. Honestly I don’t know many that could just black that out after being hit with haymaker after haymaker. There was a point in the 2nd half Graham made a 3, Nova answers with one, Graham hits another, I believe Nova hit another shot. Graham shoots another shot (without passing that clanks off the back rim). That kind of basketball probably doesn’t happen if KU is in a manageable situation to comeback from which never felt like the case.
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@benshawks08 There were 6 or 7 “hero” shots where we tossed it up from the Alamo, and hoped it would go in. Things like that happen when you fall behind 22-4. The entire year, our coaching staff has been imploring the whole team to help on defense, and then we run into a team that turns that against you when you do help. Give the devil his due- Villanova lost two starters during the year ( which is the ONLY reason they didn’t win the Big East ), and we caught them at full strength, going full bore. The things we used during the year that worked against other teams don’t work against Villanova. So, I sure hope when they come into AFH next year, we have a distinct strategy to take them down, because I’m sure getting tired of losing to them.
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This was the best chance we had to get it under 10 and make it a ballgame. Down 14 at the 9:23 mark. Then… missed three threes in a row. (That one by Malik at 9:05, might have been one of his hero attempts.)
It’s worth noting that we should have fouled them a lot more, but that goes along with playing better perimeter D and contesting shots.
OK, I’m ready to move on.
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Was that the one Garrett three that hit side backboard instead of rim? Man he’s got some work to do. Sounds like they will be changing his shot this summer
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@HighEliteMajor I turned it off when we were down by 20. I’m on a spring break vacation with my son in the mountains of Montana. I figured no need to make myself miserable watching the rest of the game.
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@DanR Very nice … excellent analysis. we’re down 14 and Marcus Garrett shoots twice. I wouldn’t want him shooting a water pistol. While I love the rest of his game, if he can’t shoot, he’ll be a liability.
@wissox In the mountains, with your boys. Very envious. Hope you are enjoying it.
@drgnslayr Plagiarism is an essential element of coaching.
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The offense wasn’t the problem.
Here’s a couple of stretches where KU was scoring, but made up almost nothing on the deficit.
First one, KU down 13 after Silvio gets a putback. KU scores 10 points in five possessions. The deficit goes from 15 to 14.
Second one, KU scores 8 points in 4 possessions. Deficit goes from 14 to 12.
At the end of the second spurt, KU had scored 21 points in 7 minutes, which is good offensive work. They had given up 18 points. They played good offense and made up basically no ground. That’s a defensive problem.
Look at the three back to back to back possessions in the first chart starting at 10:27. On KU’s possessions, they get layups from Newman, Vick and Newman again. Villanova gets threes from Paschall, Booth and Bridges. KU got three consecutive layups, and yet lost three points in the exchange.
In the second one, there’s a similar rapid fire exchange. Azubuike dunk, Graham three, Vick jumper. 7 points in 3 possessions. That’s great, except Brunson hit two threes in that same stretch to give Villanova six points in two possessions.
KU had the right offensive gameplan.
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@justanotherfan One point of clarification … they did not have the right gameplan if Nova was shooting 40 three pointers. If you take all of the averages, in that scenario, we lose. The “average” is the most likely result. If we knew Nova was going to shoot 40 three pointers, and we assume 40%, how could shooting 20 threes be the right offensive gameplan? That means if we shoot our average, also 40%, we’re down 24 points, having to make that up in extra possessions with two point baskets or free throws. Am I wrong there?
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@HighEliteMajor I think your analysis pretty much nailed it.
We didn’t defend the three and they did – like crazy. That defense was the reason we took fewer 3pt attempts and that, in turn, reduced our opportunity for winning dramatically.
We have shooters that can make it from NBA and beyond range. I was hoping at some point the guys would take an open shot or two from 3 - 6 ft beyond the arc just to prove that we’re willing to shoot a 3 and not settle for 2s.
There was a matchup issue with Spellman, as you noted, but we’ve dealt with matchup issues previously.
The real reason for losing was the game plan, which was devised to give them a chance even if Kansas was hitting at it’s average clip of 40% from beyond the arc.
Nova just needed to hit near their average 3pt average to compete with that gameplan. Smart plan.
Of course, they shot even better than average and shackled us effectively.
I’m very proud of our team and glad that HCBS is adapting his game… This season’s results show he is on the right track and must continue that journey. The game is headed in a new direction fast.
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To add to why we didn’t win beyond them hitting 3s, Sosinski had more points than Garrett and Lightfoot combined.
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We didn’t defend period. This was our 2nd worst defensive night of the season. We didn’t just allow a great 3pt shooting night. Nova was 18/25 from 2pt range. I talked about this when Jaybate had his “trough” hypothesis that I vehemently disagree with.
Here are the scoring advantage breakdowns:
- KU scored 1 point per 3pt Attempt vs. Nova scoring 1.44 per 2pt attempt. Nova gained a 15 point advantage on us with the 2pt shot.
- KU scored 1.02 points per 2pt Attempt vs. Nova scoring 1.35 points per 3pt attempt. Nova gained a 12 point advantage with the 3pt shot.
- KU did win the Free Throw battle by 11. And that is how you get a 16 point loss.
All season long, we have been able to gain an advantage over our opponents by scoring more points from the 3 point shot than they can the 2 point shot. Had we held Nova to a 50% 2pt shooting night, even on the same exact attempt numbers, we still could have been in the game at the end. Even with them shooting red hot from 3. That was our biggest problem last night. Again, only once this season did we shoot poorly and defend well. When we lost, we LOST this year.
From my view, doubling the post is the single dumbest thing you can do unless a player is going to beat the man guarding him more than 70% of the time. We needed to DARE Nova to take more 2pt shots. Instead we let them rotate the ball and shoot open shots when they would have willingly taken contested 2s. Bill made the right call to double the week before on Bagley. But the wrong decision Saturday night. If we don’t double team them in the post, I would bet this game was at least 10 points closer, imo.
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I didn’t realize we won free throws by 11.
And here, I thought the game would come down to who shot better at the line. I guess that’s why I’m not a coach.
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And somwere we the ACC champs?
Texas Hawk 10 said:
Also, does this mean Villanova are the real Big 12 champs this year? They beat the top 3 teams in the Big 12 3 straight games from the Sweet 16 through at night.
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I don’t think Nova went into the game intending to shoot 40 threes. Every three they took in the first 15 minutes, with the exception of the one Brunson hit over Doke off the dribble, was an open shot in the flow of the offense. Once they went solarflare hot, there was no reason to stop shooting.
When Nova hit their fifth three of the game, I said KU needed to go small. As Charles Barkley and Kenny Smith sometimes say, you can’t let the house burn down before you get the kids out. Self should have called timeout right then and gone either to De Sousa, Lightfoot, or (my personal preference) go super small with Garrett.
Instead, the house burned down around KU. Villanova got too hot, and once everyone was hot, there was literally no way to defend them.
If, in another universe, KU comes out and defends the three point line rather than trying to hang back in the paint with Doke, Villanova probably shoots closer to their average number of attempts - let’s say 30 or 31 (averaged 29 attempts). That gives them 12 or 13 makes.
If Villanova makes 12 or 13 threes instead of 18, and if KU can get one or two stops besides that, it’s a whole different ball game.
When I was in HS, a teammate of mine once hit seven threes in the first half of a game. His first three were open looks in the flow of the offense. His last two were ridiculous, including a 26 footer at the buzzer. The two in between were somewhat more closely guarded, but the other team let him get hot and get his rhythm and that was it. We were up 20 at the break (I think he may have outscored the other team by himself) and the game was basically over. You can’t let good shooters get their confidence going because they will eat you alive.
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@justanotherfan No, I agree totally. I had no real issue with our offensive gameplan
You said KU had the right gameplan. My point was that given Nova’s 40 threes, it wasn’t the right gameplan. I stated that “they did not have the right gameplan if Nova was shooting 40 three pointers.”
Thus my initial point in this thread about our lower volume of threes being an important reason “in hindsight” as to why we didn’t win.
I don’t think Nova planned on 40 three pointers. I do think they planned on a high volume though. It would make sense given their team construct, and our strengths.
From a scheme standpoint, I’m puzzled by our passivity at defending the three point light, particularly once the “solarflare” you mentioned was evident.
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@bskeet It easily could have, had we not just been completely incompetent on D. I’ll probably rewatch the game at some point and see how many points they scored off of possessions where we double teamed.
