After UNC-Zaga, Does Anyone Still Believe the Tourney Is NOT Apparently Entertainment Engineered?
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Hard to argue with Coach Williams number. I have noticed that as I get older I become more pragmatic and tent to follow my head rather than my heart which is what I tended to do in my younger years. Having said that, it seems that Coach Self has being going through a similar process over the last couple of years and his rigid approach has changed and now he is coaching to the team’s strengths rather than sticking with the system that served him well most of his career but could not work with the personnel at hand,
Maybe we have seen the turning point in his career when he proved to himself that one single system, regardless of how well it worked in the past, is not the answer, and a more flexible approach is the better way to go. If this is indeed the case, we can certainly expect a more successful second half of his career and hopefully a few titles as well.
No question in my mind that the 2017-2018 team should be equally as good or even better that the one that just finished its season. On the big side, Lucas is leaving but we get Doke back and all the other players with one additional year of experience and add Preston. No question this is an improvement.
On the small side KU loses Mason and Jackson (is/was he a big?). A unanimous POY cannot be replaced but if Devonte plays to his potential and KU picks another PG, the drop should not be significant. Jackson is such a versatile player to replace but we have Svi, Vick and Newman coming back and Cunliffe and Garret are very capable wings that should see considerable playing time. No question the team will, at least on paper, be as good or even a better outside shooting team; a net improvement no doubt. All the very early projection I have seen have KU back as a top 5 team. A usual, the programs seems to be in good shape…no rebuilding this time, just reloading.
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@wissox Roy has finished every game he ever coached, including 38 junior hi games, with 3 to’s in his pocket. He must have a clause in his contract that he gets paid $10,000 for every TO NOT used.
He cost us dearly at times because he would not call a to, and it killed him in 08 versus us when he failed to call them. His one big blind spot.
But he does have 3 rings!
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It appears Bill would have a statistically insignificant chance of equaling Roy William’s record with the UNC EasyHeels, at KU, unless Self and KU “make accommodation” with the “apparent regime”. Until they make such accommodation, or the apparent regime is altered, it appears KU fans might as will skip postseason, except as a Carney experience. It’s like watching The Voice.
Whatever the drivers may actually be, it appears recruiting, seeding path, and no-call asymmetry appear just too much to overcome IMHO. It appears unrealistic to expect apparently “non apparent regime teams” to win more than 1 ring.
The message appears starkly clear, after last night, as clear as messages apparently being sent North Korea. @Blown’s stats apparently nail the coffin closed on the “Tourney.” Gonzaga appeared so much better than North Carolina that it appeared to take nearly an entire half of asymmetric no calls for North Carolina to eek out maybe the most pathetic “win,” since Coach K and Duke “defeated” UW, and Bo broke radio silence and called them a rent-a-team.
None of this is about population distributions of where the players are, anymore, if it ever were. If it were, Texas and CALIFORNIA and Great Lakes schools would be kicking ass the last 15 years. This appears to be about the “apparent regime.”
I truly pity Roy.
This is like watching one of Shakespeare’s tragic heroes slowly descend.
Something similar appeared to happen to Konsonants.
Pitino and Bo apparently tried to save their basketball souls and they were apparently smeared for their “peccadilloes.”
I wish Bill would retire. Now.
I don’t want to see it happen to him.
Maybe he will find a middle path.
But I doubt it.
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@jaybate-1.0 Is the “apparent regime” Nike?
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The apparent regime appears to involve a petroshoeco-agency complex and a media-gaming complex; that is why I have referred to it as an apparent regime. As a layman and a fan, that is about as specific as I can be based on limited virtual appearances, and even then it is at most a hypothesis.
I am NOT hypothesizing a conspiracy. I am flatley opposed to conspiracy theories involving illegalities being use to explain basketball phenomena. Whatever is ordering college basketball and it’s tournament appears legal and without attempt to hide its apparent effects.
I have hypothesized it as tournament engineering based on entertainment values.
Hope that helps.
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@jaybate-1.0 Don’t you think tournament engineering for max viewers, which seems to have the greatest possibility for influence in the bracketing stage, would have had UCLA in a different bracket from UK and UNC? Who in their right mind would decree that only one of those could get to the F4?
Unless it is someone who really hates Ball’s father, which seems a distinct possibility. He after all wants to engineer all of basketball!
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No. And this is why I have remarked about raw population distributions appearing not to be a primary driver of whatevever triggers the asymmetries we observe in Final Four and Finals teams. If it were only about that, then Texas and California team’s would have the best teams experiencing the most beneficial tournament engineering asymmetries. Capice?
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@jaybate-1.0 Its based on meme generation and the crying jordan meme will never die…UNC final four bound next 5 years…eek
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Hypothesis: there is a higher basketball watcher/bettor density in the EST and a different, more dominant media-gaming complex driving the EST action than in the other time zones. It might conceivably have evolved from a legacy tendency from pre sports television gaming organization divisions of action across the country, when all sports cable programming began to evolve and then built alliances with the NCAA and with be then dominant broadcast networks.
End of hypothesis.
I don’t even know if there is a higher watcher/bettor density . But it seems remotely possible. Also cricket. It would probably be possible to trace empirically evolution of gaming organization and video organization, if one were to inclined, resources and sufficiently skilled to do, too.
I’m just throwing it out as one of many conceivable hypotheses, since none of us is likely an insider that would know authoritatively.
Again, I am proposing NO conspiracies of illegal activity. None.
I am against using conspiracy theories of illegal activity to explain college basketball phenomena, unless they are already proven, of course.
Conspiracy theories unproven and “narratives” are for suckers.
I REALLY don’t understand what is going on. I’m just opining about appearances and hypothesizing, to try to find some way of making sense of the appearances and possibly to encourage data search. I have to admit those stats of @Blown are striking.
Rock Chalk!
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While you may have been joking, Memetic engineering is reputedly in full blossom in politics and warfare. It would certainly be worth considering in sports media. Scientific based Advertising and PR started in mass daily newspaper and magazine publishing in the early 20th Century and spread to politics and war as propaganda. Your hypothesis seems worth keeping an eye open for data. Color Revolutions have reputedly relied heavily on the memetic engineering and have reputedly succeeded. Who knows?
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@jaybate-1.0 Actually, I wasn’t thinking about population distribution or densities. I was thinking about fan bases. UNC and Kentucky are massive and are national brands. This year’s UCLA team resurrected that brand, and Lavar and his kids had the team in the headlines almost daily, I just think those three bracketed separately would have guaranteed more eyes across a wider swatch of the potential TV audience.
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Here is a list of all the basketball conferences ranked by Jeff Sagarin:
Now, look at the various conferences and see where they are located. You will see that the majority are in the EST or CST zones.
Just look at the top 5:
- Big 12 - CST, EST
- ACC - EST
- Big East - EST
- Big Ten - EST, CST
- SEC - CST, EST
You can see that the majority of the top programs are in the EST and CST zones and none in the MST or PST zones. You can go down the list and you will see that the only PST and MST zone conferences in the top 20 are the PAC 12 (6), Mountain West (9) and West Coast (11) and the Western Athletic that includes CST zone teams, and the only major conference is the PAC 12. you can continue going down the list and you will see the same pattern.
No question that the bulk of Division I college basketball is played in the EST and CST zones and thus it makes sense that the tournaments champions would come from these two zones.
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@JayHawkFanToo what % of tournament participants are from the EST vs the field? Last time I looked at it for a few years consecutively it was about 50% EST and 50% all other time zones.
One would think even “chance” would lead to a higher % of success from a non EST zone school.
Also, I’m not going to debate the why or how the percentage is so high for EST because I dont know and do not have time to study it properly. I’m simply stating the observation I have. Eastern time zones win more championships–it is a mandate.
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I don’t find your data or apparent logic very persuasive for your position, but thanks for presenting it. I will continue to try to see your POV…
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@HighEliteMajor Believe it has been a decade since UNC has had a OAD. The latest NC and two title games in a row - this one primarily with juniors and seniors who bought in to the system and came back to give it another shot - and probably marginal NBA talent on the roster, other than Jackson and maybe Bradley.
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You cannot just look at the tournament percentage participation in isolation. Say, if 75% of the top 16 teams (12 teams) are from the EST or CST zone, it really would not make much difference where the rest of the teams are from since the great majority of Champions come from these teams. I will guess that a disproportionate number of all teams come from the EST and CST zones anyway.
My points is that if teams from different time zones want to win the title, all they have to do is win games. I don’t believe the NCAA told KU to have a lousy shooting day so UNC would have an easier path to the title…all KU…or Oregon…or Gonzaga had to do is win and they did not and the NCAA had nothing to do with this.
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@jaybate-1.0 Vegas being involved would make sense for the biggest month they have of the year. Definitely would explain UNC, UK and UCLA being a 1,2,3 in the same region. Easily the 3 games that were most bet on in the tourney.
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My original numbers were off. I was going off of memory and thinking ESPN was founded in 1972. It was 1979.
So a corrected report would look something like this:
For the first 40 National Championships, 16 of 40 were won by EST zone teams. That is a 40% success rate for EST zone teams.
ESPN came along in 79, and those 40 championships pre-date their arrival.
Following the arrival of ESPN In 1979, 9 of the next 10 Champions were from the EST zone. Success Rate of 90%
From 1979 to 2017 33 of 39 champions have been EST zone teams. (Two of those six outliers were Kansas in 88/08 )
That is an 85% success rate for EST Zone teams.
19 of the last 20 (Kansas being the outlier) have been EST zone teams. EST success rate of 95%.
WHY? I don’t know. I can just see that it IS. There are strong arguments that the best talent is on the east coast and that the best programs are on the east coast. If so, I wonder if that was not the case pre 1979 when the greater majority of the championships were won by teams west of the Mississippi.
EDIT: POST SCRIPT:
in an attempt to the skew the numbers the best I could for non EST zone teams.
The best tournament run for Non EST zone schools after the arrival of ESPN was from 1988-2008 when 6 of the 21 winners were from Non EST zone programs. So during that time the EST zone teams success rate was a measly 71%
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@BSharkEl Poyo and JB should have a drink together sometime.
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Interesting insight. Thanks.
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That certainly seems logical to me, but I would not have thought of it without you. Thanks.
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“. I don’t believe the NCAA told KU to have a lousy shooting day so UNC would have an easier path to the title…” –@JayHawkFanToo
I agree.
Almost every team, not just CST, MST and PST teams have some sub par shooting performances over six games, so off shooting games can almost certainly be excluded from consideration as the probable trigger. It has to be some other thing, or some constellation of other things than off shooting games that produces the striking asymmetry in the spatial and time zone distribution of Final Four, Finals, and Champion teams. .
This is why as an old QA type I always come back to asymmetries. As an colleague once said with admirable pith and insight:
asymmetries in processes trigger asymmetries in outcomes.
Apparent asymmetries in recruiting, seeding paths (possible stacking opponents that are bad matchups asymmetrically), and referee no calls and calls seem more probables places to research than off shooting games.
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I like your hypothesis, but it needs a modification or it blows up.
The injury to Goss could only have been one of the decisive drivers along with the fouling out of the Zaga big, and Extra possession and lost momentum from the technical , if the game were close at that point. Something had to make the game close. What?
I argue Zaga appeared a significantly better team. I argue there was IMHO an appearance of no calling sharply favoring UNC. I argue that no calling made the game CLOSE enough for the factors above to tip the game to UNC.
You don’t have to buy my argument, but it would set the condition for yours to hold.
Otherwise, you have to come up with an explanation why the game was close and explain away the appearance of asymmetry in no calls.
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My late afternoon two cents on this, is to me this year it seemed the further you moved West the softer the team was.
You always here coaches say they want that “Philly tough” or “New York Tough” kid on their team.
After watching UCLA a few times this year, Ball didn’t like contact, he avoided it at all cost. Oregon may have been the toughest team in the Pac12 this year and it wasn’t Dorsey or Brooks that made them that way. Bell was their toughest piece until he went against Meeks who had a career night against him.
Who was KUs toughest player the past two years? The kid from Virginia Frank Mason. Speaking of of Virginia, West Vitginia plays a tough game inside the paint. Fouls or not they are a physical team. Maybe Tony Bennet should incorporate some of that to his Virginia team.
Duke didn’t have the toughness this year. Kentucky had Bam. South Carolina had a few guys taking a que from their coach. Gonzaga had the bearded giant and Williams-Goss who were both very tough physical guys.
Maye, Meeks, and Berry were all tough guys and played very physical ball. The toughness of the title game really affected Just Jacksons game.
So be it population, playgrounds or whatever on the east coast that toughness goes a long way.
Again that’s just me adding my two cents and not saying anyone is right or wrong in their beliefs.
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Alas, I don’t drink anymore. Too old.
But If I did, I reckon we all, you included, should throw a few back.
In another lifetime, Lump, in another lifetime.
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@Blown If you have the time can you run those numbers for college football? I think there’s an eastern bias there as well, but maybe not as pronounced. I’d be interested to know.
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@JayHawkFanToo I’m really struggling with how much we’re agreeing on things these days … kind of nice, actually.
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The injury to Goss could only have been one of the decisive drivers along with the fouling out of the Zaga big, and Extra possession and lost momentum from the technical ,
Except Gonzaga came out from the technical two points ahead since it made the two free throws and UNC missed both, By the way, the sequence was replayed at nauseum and it showed that Berry cleanly stripped the ball from Karnowski who in turn took Berry down by the neck. There should have not been a foul on Berry and only the one on Karnowski which was not a judgment call but by rule had to be a flagrant. Definitely an advantage for Gonzaga.
I argue Zaga appeared a significantly better team.
I have read 15-20 recaps of the game and no one else seems to share this opinion so you are in a minority of one.
I argue there was IMHO an appearance of no calling sharply favoring UNC. I argue that no calling made the game CLOSE enough for the factors above to tip the game to UNC.
No calling? Are you joking? The whole commentary during and after the game was that there were too many calls that hurt both teams equally. Even the Gonzaga boards are not clamoring there was biased but bad refereeing. The only call that seemed to favor UNC was when Meeks appeared to have his hand on the line while tied up, To that I can counter that in the picture I posted on the other thread the Gonzaga player is in-bounding the ball with his foot on the line. Two obvious calls missed, one fro each team.
Otherwise, you have to come up with an explanation why the game was close and explain away the appearance of asymmetry in no calls.
Why is it so difficult to believe that the National Title game can be close? isn’t it the most likely outcome when the top two teams left in the tournament are playing? Remember that Gonzaga made it to the finals via a horrible call when a Gonzaga players blocked a Northwestern shot by sticking his hand through the hoop which is an automatic goal tending and yet. none was called. Bad calls happen all the time.
In your mind, the only way the game was not rigged is if Gonzaga won comfortably…it did not, UNC was able to close the deal much like KU closed a lot of close games during the season, it happens, deal with it.
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We just needed a little tweak to be in perfect sync…I like it.as well. I have a hunch that we agree even more on non-basketball issues.
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Argumentum ad Populum and so unpersuasive.
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@elpoyo said:
if the tourney was engineered, UNC would be in our bracket and would be playing @ home like us.
If the Tourney were engineered based on entertainment values, there could be some conceivable reasons for placing UNC and KU in different brackets, and perhaps some for placing them in the same brackets.
If we are making these claims, the claim can be made that the BIG 12 is engineered to give KU its streak.
Yes, if a group X makes a claim Y, then group X can also make a claim Z, but that does not necessarily make either or both claims Y and Z true, or necessarily logically connected.
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@JayHawkFanToo I didn’t have the stomach to watch the replay ad nauseum but I saw it as Karnowski getting knocked down by the UNC guy and falling into him. Nothing flagrant at all there in my view. I was pretty pissed about it, even though I was pretty neutral in the game.
The thing that annoys me is refs not seeing a foul in the course of action, but then going to the monitor to decide that it was not only a foul, but one deserving a tech. I mean where is that for every other foul that isn’t called? Sure would love to have that benefit and hate to have it at the same time for lots of other calls!
Maybe they can do like golf and let viewers call in and assess a penalty a day later like what happened Sat/Sunday in the LPGA!
“Dear NCAA, I’d like you to take a look at the play involving Devonte Graham against Villanova a year ago in the elite 8 in Louisville. We clearly do not see that Devonte committed a foul and if you watch the replay, you’d agree. Sincerely, every KU fan who ever lived and breathed.”
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@wissox The reviews on flagrants, allowing the foul to be called after the review, grew out of a number of headshots and virtual assaults missed hy the refs in the course of play. Some led to injuries that had no foul penalty. That allowed transgressors to get away with it.
The rule may need to be tweaked, especially on how long after a play it takes to have one and how long it takes to do one. Maybe a challenge system could work, provided a coach could only challenge when he has the ball and gets a T (2 shots and loss of possession) if nothing found.
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@wissox But Roy rarely calls timeouts, remember? If the other team is hot, and RoysBoys pull a JustinJackson (ice cold)–>RoyBall gets dusted by 15-20…and Roy will still have a couple of timeouts in his holster.
I think whenever our team is getting hit by an opposing run, & Self calls a timeout, & you have to grit your teeth & bear it in regards to hear the opposing crowd roar in response to your timeout–that Roy may be personally averse to “concede” that mini-surrender a timeout signals. Self is of a totally different mindset, clearly.
But Roy’s and Self’s W/L % are eerily similar, so much to discuss & support for either philosophy.
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Nice write-up for Roy. My only strike against him is he wasn’t “all in” while at Kansas… limiting his recruiting, which if this was business he probably violated anti-trust laws (when they still existed).
Roy didn’t win a title at Kansas and now he’s been at UNC about the same time and has 3. Is it so much of an advantage to be at UNC over Kansas? Because THAT is the narrative spoken outside of Lawrence. In some ways, Roy leaves us with a black eye. I don’t know how to look at it any other way.
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Really good stuff in that post.
That LPGA one is a SMH moment. Can’t believe that happened.
Agreed about the Karnowski play. The rule needs changing.
If your going to call a tech you have to call it as such live and then confirm under review. Unless the situation is of players fighting/egregious behavior, 3 refs should be able to make the correct call on the court when it happens. But I know we are asking for a lot expecting that. Otherwise call it a foul if a foul is called on the floor and move on.
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@jaybate-1.0 I’m afraid this east coast bias, based on undeniable MarketForces (potential mktg audience size), will be a perpetual subject for discussion.
3 adidas schools in top10 (Louisville, Larryville, and LAville), all out by Elite8 or sooner.
It doesnt explain NikeyDookie with their finally healthy long stack, bowing out early, and we wonder what was AZ’s excuse?
Someone had to lose KY-UNC game.
I also have ZERO doubt in my mind that the belly bumping Meeks was allowed to do to that Zag Karnivore would have been definitely called on the hapless Lucas, had we been in that game.
But WHY has Roy been so “annointed to receive”??? People may recall all the postgame outrage after Roy’s 2005 NC over Illinois–about how there were 2-3 phantom fouls called on that power fwd of Illinoi-ya. The beginnings of refs’ influence paranoi-ya. The talk was it seemed to be aimed at getting Roy his 1st NC. He failed on the KS prairie, or wherever Dorothy & Toto & tornadoes happen. But UNC was MJs school. He’d only retired from play (oncourt, at least) just a few yrs prior. He was Mr.Shoe…helping solidly convince the biz world just hpw squeeze-worthy the basketball audience is. A neat-o segue to take the NBAer’s shoe affiliations down to the college level. The clever involvement of MJs own school, in 2005. How dimwitted of KU AD to bite on adidas’ sales pitch, just to pay for girls sports shoes, thay most WmsFund donors could donate w/1 check? I still recall Langford & Miles RockChalkin’ in their KU-colored Jordan12s and 13s. Pockets got greased. And Lew greased Gill, so maybe thats how he operated, who knows? At least he brought Hudy from UConn. But we’re still recovering from Lew’sCon.
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@ralster Funny, maybe it’s because in Roy’s days at KU TO’s weren’t public information on the screen like they are now, but I don’t remember him not calling them. I do know that Self will burn them quickly if he needs to.
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Yes, Lew had some issues but let’s not forget that without him KU does not go to the Orange Bowl and records KU’s best football win in a National stage.
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Agree. Fine post. I discuss it because KU fans often are not prepared for its often cruel and unexpected side effects, because they appear to forget, or underestimate its enduring impacts. It
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Does anyone know the number of Division 1 teams that are located within the Eastern time zone?
There are 347 Division 1 basketball teams. It does seem there are more D1 teams in the Eastern time zone than the other three time zones (putting Alaska and Hawaii in the Pacific time zone for sense of ease) together.
Just wondering on a keyboard what the odds are on Eastern time zone teams winning it all compared to the percentage of teams located in said time zone compared to the number of schools located outside of the Eastern time zone.
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@jaybate-1.0 I didn’t even watch the game.
East Coast bias is real.
Sucks that Roy sold himself down the river
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@FarNrthJHwk said:
Does anyone know the number of Division 1 teams that are located within the Eastern time zone?
A couple of times this year I looked at the top 25 and it was usually between 11 and 14 in EST zone. In the tournament I think it was about half also.
But, those are top programs, which is not dispositive of anything since it would reflect an East Coast bias, wouldn’t it? So, someday maybe I will count 'em up. But schools in Kentucky, Indiana, and Tennessee need to be looked up and that is a daunting task.
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This post season business reminds me of Casablanca rewritten for basketball.
Rick to Ilsa: We’ll always have Lawrence.
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@ralster said:
But WHY has Roy been so “annointed to receive”???
Hypothesis: Dean Smith. Sonny Vaccaro. Michael Jordan. Phil Knight.
