After UNC-Zaga, Does Anyone Still Believe the Tourney Is NOT Apparently Entertainment Engineered?
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@jaybate-1.0 Vegas being involved would make sense for the biggest month they have of the year. Definitely would explain UNC, UK and UCLA being a 1,2,3 in the same region. Easily the 3 games that were most bet on in the tourney.
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My original numbers were off. I was going off of memory and thinking ESPN was founded in 1972. It was 1979.
So a corrected report would look something like this:
For the first 40 National Championships, 16 of 40 were won by EST zone teams. That is a 40% success rate for EST zone teams.
ESPN came along in 79, and those 40 championships pre-date their arrival.
Following the arrival of ESPN In 1979, 9 of the next 10 Champions were from the EST zone. Success Rate of 90%
From 1979 to 2017 33 of 39 champions have been EST zone teams. (Two of those six outliers were Kansas in 88/08 )
That is an 85% success rate for EST Zone teams.
19 of the last 20 (Kansas being the outlier) have been EST zone teams. EST success rate of 95%.
WHY? I don’t know. I can just see that it IS. There are strong arguments that the best talent is on the east coast and that the best programs are on the east coast. If so, I wonder if that was not the case pre 1979 when the greater majority of the championships were won by teams west of the Mississippi.
EDIT: POST SCRIPT:
in an attempt to the skew the numbers the best I could for non EST zone teams.
The best tournament run for Non EST zone schools after the arrival of ESPN was from 1988-2008 when 6 of the 21 winners were from Non EST zone programs. So during that time the EST zone teams success rate was a measly 71%
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@BSharkEl Poyo and JB should have a drink together sometime.
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Interesting insight. Thanks.
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That certainly seems logical to me, but I would not have thought of it without you. Thanks.
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“. I don’t believe the NCAA told KU to have a lousy shooting day so UNC would have an easier path to the title…” –@JayHawkFanToo
I agree.
Almost every team, not just CST, MST and PST teams have some sub par shooting performances over six games, so off shooting games can almost certainly be excluded from consideration as the probable trigger. It has to be some other thing, or some constellation of other things than off shooting games that produces the striking asymmetry in the spatial and time zone distribution of Final Four, Finals, and Champion teams. .
This is why as an old QA type I always come back to asymmetries. As an colleague once said with admirable pith and insight:
asymmetries in processes trigger asymmetries in outcomes.
Apparent asymmetries in recruiting, seeding paths (possible stacking opponents that are bad matchups asymmetrically), and referee no calls and calls seem more probables places to research than off shooting games.
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I like your hypothesis, but it needs a modification or it blows up.
The injury to Goss could only have been one of the decisive drivers along with the fouling out of the Zaga big, and Extra possession and lost momentum from the technical , if the game were close at that point. Something had to make the game close. What?
I argue Zaga appeared a significantly better team. I argue there was IMHO an appearance of no calling sharply favoring UNC. I argue that no calling made the game CLOSE enough for the factors above to tip the game to UNC.
You don’t have to buy my argument, but it would set the condition for yours to hold.
Otherwise, you have to come up with an explanation why the game was close and explain away the appearance of asymmetry in no calls.
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My late afternoon two cents on this, is to me this year it seemed the further you moved West the softer the team was.
You always here coaches say they want that “Philly tough” or “New York Tough” kid on their team.
After watching UCLA a few times this year, Ball didn’t like contact, he avoided it at all cost. Oregon may have been the toughest team in the Pac12 this year and it wasn’t Dorsey or Brooks that made them that way. Bell was their toughest piece until he went against Meeks who had a career night against him.
Who was KUs toughest player the past two years? The kid from Virginia Frank Mason. Speaking of of Virginia, West Vitginia plays a tough game inside the paint. Fouls or not they are a physical team. Maybe Tony Bennet should incorporate some of that to his Virginia team.
Duke didn’t have the toughness this year. Kentucky had Bam. South Carolina had a few guys taking a que from their coach. Gonzaga had the bearded giant and Williams-Goss who were both very tough physical guys.
Maye, Meeks, and Berry were all tough guys and played very physical ball. The toughness of the title game really affected Just Jacksons game.
So be it population, playgrounds or whatever on the east coast that toughness goes a long way.
Again that’s just me adding my two cents and not saying anyone is right or wrong in their beliefs.
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Alas, I don’t drink anymore. Too old.
But If I did, I reckon we all, you included, should throw a few back.
In another lifetime, Lump, in another lifetime.
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@Blown If you have the time can you run those numbers for college football? I think there’s an eastern bias there as well, but maybe not as pronounced. I’d be interested to know.
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@JayHawkFanToo I’m really struggling with how much we’re agreeing on things these days … kind of nice, actually.
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The injury to Goss could only have been one of the decisive drivers along with the fouling out of the Zaga big, and Extra possession and lost momentum from the technical ,
Except Gonzaga came out from the technical two points ahead since it made the two free throws and UNC missed both, By the way, the sequence was replayed at nauseum and it showed that Berry cleanly stripped the ball from Karnowski who in turn took Berry down by the neck. There should have not been a foul on Berry and only the one on Karnowski which was not a judgment call but by rule had to be a flagrant. Definitely an advantage for Gonzaga.
I argue Zaga appeared a significantly better team.
I have read 15-20 recaps of the game and no one else seems to share this opinion so you are in a minority of one.
I argue there was IMHO an appearance of no calling sharply favoring UNC. I argue that no calling made the game CLOSE enough for the factors above to tip the game to UNC.
No calling? Are you joking? The whole commentary during and after the game was that there were too many calls that hurt both teams equally. Even the Gonzaga boards are not clamoring there was biased but bad refereeing. The only call that seemed to favor UNC was when Meeks appeared to have his hand on the line while tied up, To that I can counter that in the picture I posted on the other thread the Gonzaga player is in-bounding the ball with his foot on the line. Two obvious calls missed, one fro each team.
Otherwise, you have to come up with an explanation why the game was close and explain away the appearance of asymmetry in no calls.
Why is it so difficult to believe that the National Title game can be close? isn’t it the most likely outcome when the top two teams left in the tournament are playing? Remember that Gonzaga made it to the finals via a horrible call when a Gonzaga players blocked a Northwestern shot by sticking his hand through the hoop which is an automatic goal tending and yet. none was called. Bad calls happen all the time.
In your mind, the only way the game was not rigged is if Gonzaga won comfortably…it did not, UNC was able to close the deal much like KU closed a lot of close games during the season, it happens, deal with it.
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We just needed a little tweak to be in perfect sync…I like it.as well. I have a hunch that we agree even more on non-basketball issues.
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Argumentum ad Populum and so unpersuasive.
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@elpoyo said:
if the tourney was engineered, UNC would be in our bracket and would be playing @ home like us.
If the Tourney were engineered based on entertainment values, there could be some conceivable reasons for placing UNC and KU in different brackets, and perhaps some for placing them in the same brackets.
If we are making these claims, the claim can be made that the BIG 12 is engineered to give KU its streak.
Yes, if a group X makes a claim Y, then group X can also make a claim Z, but that does not necessarily make either or both claims Y and Z true, or necessarily logically connected.
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@JayHawkFanToo I didn’t have the stomach to watch the replay ad nauseum but I saw it as Karnowski getting knocked down by the UNC guy and falling into him. Nothing flagrant at all there in my view. I was pretty pissed about it, even though I was pretty neutral in the game.
The thing that annoys me is refs not seeing a foul in the course of action, but then going to the monitor to decide that it was not only a foul, but one deserving a tech. I mean where is that for every other foul that isn’t called? Sure would love to have that benefit and hate to have it at the same time for lots of other calls!
Maybe they can do like golf and let viewers call in and assess a penalty a day later like what happened Sat/Sunday in the LPGA!
“Dear NCAA, I’d like you to take a look at the play involving Devonte Graham against Villanova a year ago in the elite 8 in Louisville. We clearly do not see that Devonte committed a foul and if you watch the replay, you’d agree. Sincerely, every KU fan who ever lived and breathed.”
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@wissox The reviews on flagrants, allowing the foul to be called after the review, grew out of a number of headshots and virtual assaults missed hy the refs in the course of play. Some led to injuries that had no foul penalty. That allowed transgressors to get away with it.
The rule may need to be tweaked, especially on how long after a play it takes to have one and how long it takes to do one. Maybe a challenge system could work, provided a coach could only challenge when he has the ball and gets a T (2 shots and loss of possession) if nothing found.
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@wissox But Roy rarely calls timeouts, remember? If the other team is hot, and RoysBoys pull a JustinJackson (ice cold)–>RoyBall gets dusted by 15-20…and Roy will still have a couple of timeouts in his holster.
I think whenever our team is getting hit by an opposing run, & Self calls a timeout, & you have to grit your teeth & bear it in regards to hear the opposing crowd roar in response to your timeout–that Roy may be personally averse to “concede” that mini-surrender a timeout signals. Self is of a totally different mindset, clearly.
But Roy’s and Self’s W/L % are eerily similar, so much to discuss & support for either philosophy.
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Nice write-up for Roy. My only strike against him is he wasn’t “all in” while at Kansas… limiting his recruiting, which if this was business he probably violated anti-trust laws (when they still existed).
Roy didn’t win a title at Kansas and now he’s been at UNC about the same time and has 3. Is it so much of an advantage to be at UNC over Kansas? Because THAT is the narrative spoken outside of Lawrence. In some ways, Roy leaves us with a black eye. I don’t know how to look at it any other way.
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Really good stuff in that post.
That LPGA one is a SMH moment. Can’t believe that happened.
Agreed about the Karnowski play. The rule needs changing.
If your going to call a tech you have to call it as such live and then confirm under review. Unless the situation is of players fighting/egregious behavior, 3 refs should be able to make the correct call on the court when it happens. But I know we are asking for a lot expecting that. Otherwise call it a foul if a foul is called on the floor and move on.
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@jaybate-1.0 I’m afraid this east coast bias, based on undeniable MarketForces (potential mktg audience size), will be a perpetual subject for discussion.
3 adidas schools in top10 (Louisville, Larryville, and LAville), all out by Elite8 or sooner.
It doesnt explain NikeyDookie with their finally healthy long stack, bowing out early, and we wonder what was AZ’s excuse?
Someone had to lose KY-UNC game.
I also have ZERO doubt in my mind that the belly bumping Meeks was allowed to do to that Zag Karnivore would have been definitely called on the hapless Lucas, had we been in that game.
But WHY has Roy been so “annointed to receive”??? People may recall all the postgame outrage after Roy’s 2005 NC over Illinois–about how there were 2-3 phantom fouls called on that power fwd of Illinoi-ya. The beginnings of refs’ influence paranoi-ya. The talk was it seemed to be aimed at getting Roy his 1st NC. He failed on the KS prairie, or wherever Dorothy & Toto & tornadoes happen. But UNC was MJs school. He’d only retired from play (oncourt, at least) just a few yrs prior. He was Mr.Shoe…helping solidly convince the biz world just hpw squeeze-worthy the basketball audience is. A neat-o segue to take the NBAer’s shoe affiliations down to the college level. The clever involvement of MJs own school, in 2005. How dimwitted of KU AD to bite on adidas’ sales pitch, just to pay for girls sports shoes, thay most WmsFund donors could donate w/1 check? I still recall Langford & Miles RockChalkin’ in their KU-colored Jordan12s and 13s. Pockets got greased. And Lew greased Gill, so maybe thats how he operated, who knows? At least he brought Hudy from UConn. But we’re still recovering from Lew’sCon.
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@ralster Funny, maybe it’s because in Roy’s days at KU TO’s weren’t public information on the screen like they are now, but I don’t remember him not calling them. I do know that Self will burn them quickly if he needs to.
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Yes, Lew had some issues but let’s not forget that without him KU does not go to the Orange Bowl and records KU’s best football win in a National stage.
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Agree. Fine post. I discuss it because KU fans often are not prepared for its often cruel and unexpected side effects, because they appear to forget, or underestimate its enduring impacts. It
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Does anyone know the number of Division 1 teams that are located within the Eastern time zone?
There are 347 Division 1 basketball teams. It does seem there are more D1 teams in the Eastern time zone than the other three time zones (putting Alaska and Hawaii in the Pacific time zone for sense of ease) together.
Just wondering on a keyboard what the odds are on Eastern time zone teams winning it all compared to the percentage of teams located in said time zone compared to the number of schools located outside of the Eastern time zone.
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@jaybate-1.0 I didn’t even watch the game.
East Coast bias is real.
Sucks that Roy sold himself down the river
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@FarNrthJHwk said:
Does anyone know the number of Division 1 teams that are located within the Eastern time zone?
A couple of times this year I looked at the top 25 and it was usually between 11 and 14 in EST zone. In the tournament I think it was about half also.
But, those are top programs, which is not dispositive of anything since it would reflect an East Coast bias, wouldn’t it? So, someday maybe I will count 'em up. But schools in Kentucky, Indiana, and Tennessee need to be looked up and that is a daunting task.
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This post season business reminds me of Casablanca rewritten for basketball.
Rick to Ilsa: We’ll always have Lawrence.
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@ralster said:
But WHY has Roy been so “annointed to receive”???
Hypothesis: Dean Smith. Sonny Vaccaro. Michael Jordan. Phil Knight.
