KU's Kryptonite (AKA the teams the NCAA will put in the Midwest Region)
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The seedings are supposed to snake around, but some of that is affected by conference affiliation.
For example, if everything is assigned purely by seed, the following overall seeds would go to the following regions:
Region A - 1, 8, 9, 16, 17, 24, 25, 32
Region B - 2, 7, 10, 15, 18, 23, 26, 31
Region C - 3, 6, 11, 14, 19, 22, 27, 30
Region D - 4, 5, 12, 13, 20, 21, 28, 29
That’s the top 8 seeds in each region by overall seeding breakdown. However, things change when you start working with conference affiliation.
Here’s that same list, but with team’s assigned by RPI from today’s NCAA site (obviously this isn’t how the seedings will actually break out, but it gives us something to work with):
Region A - Villanova, Kentucky, Arizona, Minnesota, Virginia, Creighton, West Virginia, Wisconsin
Region B - Kansas, Baylor, Butler, UCLA, St. Mary’s, VCU, Xavier, Arkansas
Region C - Louisville, North Carolina, Gonzaga, Cincinnati, SMU, Notre Dame, Maryland, Middle Tennessee St.
Region D - Oregon, Florida, Florida State, Duke, Purdue, Dayton, Oklahoma State, South Carolina
That’s all four regions, 1-8. One rule is that conference foes cannot meet prior to the E8. In region C, SMU and Cincinnati would potentially meet in the Round of 32. That means one of them has to move, but you can’t create another bad matchup with that move. Wisconsin and Minnesota in Region A would be a potential S16 matchup that shouldn’t happen, but because they are lower seeds, they don’t get priority.
Additionally, Regions B and C would likely swap 2 seeds to avoid having the top seeds in those two regions both be from the same conference (Big 12 and ACC). Everyone would claim that they put KU and UNC in the same region for the storyline, but the truth is that Louisville and UNC should be split up, and Baylor and KU should be split up, so UNC and Baylor would flip regions in this hypothetical bracket. That same logic would likely move Creighton out of Region A and Xavier out of region B.
So we would likely end up with the following top 8 in each region (overall seed listed):
Region A - Villanova 1, Kentucky 8, Arizona 9, Duke 13, Virginia 17, VCU 23, West Virginia 25, Arkansas 31
Region B - Kansas 2, North Carolina 6, Butler 10, UCLA 15, St. Mary’s 18, Creighton 24, Maryland 27, Middle Tennessee St. 30
Region C - Louisville 3, Baylor 7, Gonzaga 11, Cincinnati 14, Purdue 20, Notre Dame 22, Xavier 26, South Carolina 29
Region D - Oregon 4, Florida 5, Florida State 12, Minnesota 16, SMU 19, Dayton 21, Oklahoma State 28, Wisconsin 32
Region A switches it’s 4, 6 and 8 seeds, with Duke moving into the 16 spot to separate from Florida State in D.
Region B exchanges it’s 2, 6, 7 and 8, but again, it’s just a move of one spot up or down.
Region C switches out its 2, 5, 7 and 8, again staying within one spot up or down.
Region D trades it’s 4, 5 and 8, and has the largest mover, with Wisconsin (32) replacing the 29 spot and Minnesota (16) trading places with Duke (13).
People would point to Louisville and Cincinnati in the same region, or UNC and KU, or Florida and Florida State as storyline matchups.
Villanova would cry foul that Duke is moved into their region, but you can’t leave Duke in D (Florida State) or move them to B (UNC) or C (Louisville), so they have to go to A.
And that’s how brackets get made, or made into a mess.
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They have a pretty similar statistical profile to KU. If you look at sites like Kenpom, they are ranked in about the same spot as us. I’m willing to hear the argument that they haven’t played anybody but I would bet they do well in the tournament.
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@KUSTEVE That’s why I changed my Avatar. Remember, George Brett wore the same underwear for 8 straight days while he was batting 400.
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@BShark I have no desire to change your mind about you thinking we would be beat by the Shlockers. You said we were going to lose to Dook. You said we were going to lose to Kensucky. You said we were going to lose to Baylor. Not surprising you would look at Kenpom and think we aren’t any good, and that the Shlockers would beat us. You have no faith in the team. Now this is not a personal indictment of you, merely a statement of fact.
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And how close was KU to losing all those games? Pretty damn close. Though admittedly KU played really poorly against Duke and I would bet both teams would play better in a rematch. But yeah we are talking about a bunch of games that all could have gone either way.
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@wrwlumpy Hmmmm… As I recall, that was the same year he had a certain problem that hampered him against the Phillies in the WS. Might not have been the best superstition. Why not a wrist band?
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There is no way in the world that you will convince me that KU, the overall #1 seed should have been in the south playing in DesMoines and Louisville instead of being in the Midwest playing in Oklahoma City and Chicago where KU has a huge alumni base last tournament.
Also, WSU was ranked as high as top 10, never dropped off the top 25 and was top 20 at selection time and yet ended up as a #11 seed when it should not have been any lower than #5 or #6. I can just about guarantee you that if not for the NCAA ban, the big time ACC/NC programs would be playing in state or close to home like they usually do. Sure, you can find instances when they don’t but more often than not they do get preferential treatment…this is in no way related to whether KU should have lost when it was not supposed to.
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Pick 3 teams seeded from 5 to 16 that you would prefer not to see in the Midwest Region.
Protected seeds No. 1 seeds No. 2 seeds No. 3 seeds No. 4 seeds
- Kansas* 5. Baylor 9. Duke 13. Florida State
- Villanova* 6. Oregon 10. Butler 14. UCLA
- North Carolina* 7. Louisville 11. Florida* 15. Purdue
- Gonzaga* 8. Arizona* 12. Kentucky 16. West Virginia
Mine would be - Oregon - Arizona - Florida - UCLA.
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@JayHawkFanToo won’t have the same problem this year. The number 1 overall seed gets to decide where it play.
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@JayHawkFanToo All I am saying is that it didn’t matter. You play where you are put. But I do believe the committee doesn’t try to hurt KU. How would that discussion go, anyway? Another cabal secretly working, year after year, to undermine a single coach… CBS and ESPN working hand in hand season after season.
And with all that talking, not once has anyone ever come forward with the biggest sports inside scoop of the century. As I said, although there are bad breaks sometimes, bad play is the bugaboo.
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@mayjay again, people blame others for a team’s poor play. Just like last year and against Michigan.
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I don’t. We should have kicked UM’s ASS. But instead the team pissed down it’s leg. That’s just a fact.
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One thing I do know. This team isn’t afraid of anything.
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Team’s with big strong guards and 4 big men, as well as running teams 9 Deep will populate KUs bracket. Being from the EST will be another criterion. --from Predictions of batenac 1.0, the Magnificient Seer from the Black Hole.
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If it’s me I’m saying Duke, Louisville, Kentucky and UCLA.
I hate re-matches, so Duke and Kentucky are no brainers. I worry about Louisville’s press and UCLA’s explosive offense.
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Teams I dont want to see mid major wise are Middle Tennessee, UT Arlington and WSU (maybe i really wanna play them if we can win). I think you will see a KU, WSU match up the NCAA committee always tries to match up a story to the games IMO for higher ratings. Like us playing UNC often and playing WSU 2 years ago. I’m not worried about playing UNC, Zaga and Nova becuase they are most likely to also get a 1 seed and we wont have to deal with them til the FF. I always hate playing against Izzo teams in march, they are kinda sleep walking into the dance currently and any Izzo team can make FF. I think UK maybe the most talented team, but can they put it together. I bet they are a 2 seed so us and them if placed in the same bracket have to do some winning before a match up happens. All in all idc who we play, to me its simple go play hard as @KUSTEVE said we are our own enemy. Coach wooden never watched film on teams they were playing, he was just worried about how they played.
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The 2013 NCAA tournament is evidence against KU being set up. That was the year UNC was our 8 seed, but in two other regions as 9 seeds were Wichita St. and Missouri. This was Missouri’s first year in the SEC, but the NCAA chose to send Missouri elsewhere.
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@wrwlumpy I don’t like our matchup against Oregon or UCLA. Kentucky scares me as well if they were to meet us in the elite 8. Would mean they were playing well. Don’t like WVU because the game completely depends on how the refs call the game.
I would love to play Arizona, Purdue, Butler and Florida State. We matchup well against Zona. Purdue doesn’t have the guard play to keep up and Lando can actually body up with Swannigan. Butler is good but not the Butler of old or Brad Stevens at the helm. But they are hot at the moment and that is always scary. And Florida State can’t win a road game. So I’m definitely not scared of them.
Everyone else I feel is a 50/50 ball game.
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I agree with you @KUSTEVE - the real enemy is the KU team themselves. They are capable of beating anyone and losing to anyone. Basically, that describes a typical Bill Self coached team going into the tournament. This year is no different than any other year, in my opinion.
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Another year without Mizzou in our bracket, that’s all I know. LOL
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Man, this year, this season KU has played in and won soooo many close games in crunch time, its not even funny! KU has lived on Saturday, Monday games all season long. This team has been baptized in the fiery crucible of March Madness style games and come out on top.
I want "Nova and KU for the final game in April.
KU has proven it can play against any type of team and win this season. Those Saturday Monday games coming up next month will be like walking to class for them.
I just got a good feeling about this team, I like our chances against anybody.
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@wissox said:
By your post it sounds like you’re implying the NCAA selection committee tries to stick it to KU. I know you’re not the only one saying this here. I’m not so sure this is true. I know east coast bias will be cited. Not sure of any other excuses people will make.
Fair to read it that way… I don’t have any evidence that the NCAA has a grudge.
H o w e v e r . . . I do think they like competitive games.
I’ve often wondered if the committee makes an effort to create dramatic competitions. Are those matchups that feature contrasting styles and interesting stories really a coincidence or more by design?
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@Kcmatt7 I was thinking about Purdue…If LL guards Swanigan…who guards Haas?
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@Hawk8086 Ding! We have a winner.
Now, is Purdue a #2, #3 or #4 seed? Depends on the B10 tournament results probably…
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@mayjay Right on the money. @KUSTEVE also was 100% correct. Think of each of the KU losses, and it was things that WE ourselves did not do, that caused our demise. Never overpowered and dominated, and blown out of the Tourney by 20.
Everything has been a 1-2 possession game. Simien for the tie (didnt). EJ for the tie (bizarre panic kickout) but also team self-destruct vs Michigan, too young vs Stanford & couldnt finish against length, didnt get back on D vs VCU, flat out disrespect for UNI, who also played unconventional ball. DID NOT DEFEND well in some of these losses. WSU was better than us at every position except for Devonte, and Frank was a wash.
Broke down into 1on1 ball, and missed bunnies vs UCLA in 2007. Got away from who we were.
Nova was a bitter loss, since we did everything but hit even 30% of our 3s. I think that got to Mason, and he dedicated himself to 3%. But Mason and Selden found other ways to score. But 2 top-of-key handoff turnovers, and Perry in his old shell, & we were done. 2 possession loss. Played decent D.
Poor FTs vs Syracuse and vs KY in 2012. Shot ourselves into a deep hole from 3 vs KY also. As well as missing 3 dunks, yet closed to within 5pts late…
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As a matter of perspective, I always try to remind myself of the finality of the Tournament season. This is it for many of our guys. So if we lose prematurely, I’ll feel worse for our kids in uniform 1000 x more than I would for my own fandom.
And this is when I also wont bash any of our players who had a horrible outing. Report on it as a factor in the loss, yes…but not going to vent at some youngster’s expense.
Hey, I get to be a fan/alum for the rest of my days. But I’m always hopeful we get the big NC win. Last year and this year, we have a contender. And we have Frank.version4.0…
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@ralster well said!
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Villanova last year is the only one of the tournament losses that I truly believe officiating had a direct impact on.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 Ya, exactly. The 2 charge calls on Perry immediately made him passive, sent him into his old shell (not seen his Sr year). He didnt attempt 1 trey, especially with Mason and Selden misfiring, and BGreene no-show/DNP.
Again, I’m not dogging Perry, but just supporting @Texas-Hawk-10 's excellent point about refs early in the Nova game, and also the fouls on Devonte. ALL that shiz mattered in a 2 possession game. Too damn bad we missed our open look 3s, would have beat Nova by 15+, all else being the same…sigh…
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@bskeet I’m sure they jump at any chance to justify putting interesting matchups in the 2nd/3rd/4th rounds.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 I’m only remembering the iffy call on DG that fouled him out. What else? I’m the first one to point out when we get screwed by officials, all the way back to 1986 against Duke in the FF. My memory of the 'Nova game was we just never broke their 3/4 pressure press. It led to the turnovers that ruined that game.
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@wissox Do you recall Perry getting 2 early charge calls? Changed the whole game right there, because it changed his mentality.
I recall we missed too many open-look 3s, so we clearly got past their 3/4 press most of the time.
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The best thing about this year’s team is that they are better shooters than the team that faced KY. Tyshawn didnt hit a 3 the whole 6 game tournament, and we relied on Connor Teahan off the bench.
So, eventhough this current team has had to mount some comebacks, they have found the toughness needed. And they’ve tasted success in doing so multiple times. So even if we come out “tight”, we have that team confidence to not get fazed. And we are more competent defensively, so as not get that far behind. Hopefully.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 said:
Villanova last year is the only one of the tournament losses that I truly believe officiating had a direct impact on.
I never said that refs don’t have an impact. Bad calls abound. It is still how you respond to them that makes the big difference. Contrast Perry becoming so passive with the number of times zillions of players all over bb have managed to play cleanly even with 4 fouls. We have seen JJ do it, LL and others.
You still have to play your game. No one ever won playing scared.
But, while bad calls are just part of the game, I don’t think outcomes are predetermined or that refs are just waiting for a chance, for example, to make a bad call. Nor do they make 30 foot killer shots for UNI or OT forcing shots by Michigan.
Anyone contending the tourney is corrupt has to do more than whine about us losing too often. HEM has provided lengthy analyses of why that has happened. Right or wrong, his theses are at least in the realm of very realistic possibility. Shoes? Time zones? Embargoes? Imaginary as goblins.
I remember someone playing the lottery who thought it had to be rigged because neither she nor anyone she knew ever won a big prize ($100K or more). But she kept playing! As bad in logic as math.
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@mayjay agreed. You have to play thru bad calls, it’s what tough teams do.
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@ralster To be honest, I don’t recall those, but I believe you.
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@wissox Ya…I’m trying to forget it all…I felt so bad for our team, they truly did put up a stiff fight. Held Nova to 20pts under their season avg. Just couldnt drop it in the ocean. Self didnt seem too mad, as he saw the effort, and Mason and Selden both combined for over 30pts, so they found other ways to score. We needed only about 3 plays to go our way.
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I am not and I have not said that the committee purposefully tries to hurt Kansas; however, there is no question that East Cost teams get more favorable placement and in the process other teams get less favorable seeding/locations.
Of course no one can prove that this happens because, and unlike professional sports for example, there is no objective and devoid of human intervention process to create the brackets. In the NBA, NFL and Major Baseball the records and well defined tie breakers determine who plays who and where the games are played. The NCAA has “guidelines” for selection and these can be subjectively interpreted and also overridden by committee members and as such can be deemed to be “defensible.”
I gave you two concrete examples related to KU where the committee overrode the guidelines and KU ended up in a less favorable setting. Again, I did not and I am not saying that it caused KU loses but it created a less favorable situation than what KU earned by its seasons record…wouldn’t you agree?
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@JayHawkFanToo Analyzed it last year. Louisville KFC arena was about 1.3 miles closer! Seems compelling to me.
Actually, joking aside, Nova was able to stay in their time zone–but they travelled almost 675 miles from home to our 547. And I am pretty sure Nova’s alumni base isn’t much more substantial in Kentucky than KU’s, so I cannot figure out how the Eastern team got the advantage you think they were given. (Hmmm…decided to look this up. Cursory search shows Nova has no alum chapters listed in KY; KU has listings for both Lexington and Louisville.)
More fundamentally, I don’t agree that there is no question eastern teams get better treatment. More teams are from the eastern time zone than any other. 48 out of the top 100 in the current NCAA RPI, as of today, assuming I counted correctly. This is why they stopped doing it all by geography.
When you see a team like Duke or UNC in Carolina, you say, aha! But when others get placed all over the country you literally don’t notice. With such a concentration of population centers, schools, and possible hosting sites in a single time zone, it will always seem like the East gets to stay home.
Put a lot more universities and arena sites other than KC close to KU, and KU would play closer to home, too. UNC and Duke are literally only 7 miles from each other, with NC State, Wake, Davidson, Virginia, VA Tech, and others not more than 150 miles (edit: 170), and altogether there are probably 20 or more major schools within 25o miles. Not true anywhere in the MWest (except Chicago, maybe) or West. But it is likewise true in the DC-Balt-Phil-NY-Boston metroplex. Also in the East.
Move an Eastern regional from Syracuse (they get them b/c it is a dome and seats >23,000 fans) and it might be in Philly the next year, or Boston, or DC. All closer to most Eastern teams than KU to either Louisville or Chicago. Move the West regional, and you are talking 380 miles from LA to SF alone, and many more to Seattle, or SLC. And almost anywhere in that region, people say how teams in the east get to stay so close to home. Atlanta and Charlotte are far from the Northeast schools, but close to the NC concentration.
The alternative, because the heaviest concentration is in one time zone (almost half), is to send many more eastern teams to all the other regions. So, who is volunteering to go East to replace them from the other regions? Every school elsewhere would get punished in the guise of a new form of NCAA Geographical Political Correctness–move teams so everyone is guaranteed being inconvenienced.
I just threw that last one in as my clinching argument because I know overly PC rules gets your goat! And now, here in the East, I must hie myself to bed! More tomorrow, I am sure!
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You completely missed my point. Louisville might be 1.3 miles closer but Chicago is in Illinois where Coach Self still has a big following, where former KU player Kirk Heinrich is beloved and last and more important where KU has the largest alumni base in the country after KC and Dallas and could have filled the arena whereas Louisville is a stone throw away from Lexington, the home of our Blue Blood Royalty rival, Kentucky and where local KU fans can probably fill one half of one local sports bar.
I personally could have flown to Chicago from KC for around $100 round trip but Louisville was more like $500 and hotels scarcer and more expensive; I know it made a big difference to the fans. I know Coach Self was very diplomatic about it but seemed surprised KU was not sent to Chicago…we all were.
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@JayHawkFanToo No, I understood your point. We didn’t get our preference. But still ended up in an even, or better, situation than the team that beat us. Not proof to me that the committee is disfavoring us or disadvantaging us in favor of eastern teams, which is the underlying context of this whole thread and a major part of your post.
Look at it this way: we didn’t get placed where we want, and we had to face a region with a strong #2 that had been a really strong team all season, and probably only one loss from the 1 line.
Nova no doubt said, “Crap! We are being sent to Kentucky! We have no presence in Kentucky! What the … ? And we have to face the #1 overall seed, KU? That is bull-shevik, Man! Didn’t our body of work earn at least facing the weakest #1? Oh well, guess there is nothing to do but suck it up and beat those guys. Man up, boys!”
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@Texas-Hawk-10 You might be right about the impact on officiating. But don’t forget…there was a phantom call in the first half on one of their guys that caused him to sit for an extended period of time. I watched that play several times. But certainly Devonte, was fouled at least twice on that critical play.
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Really glad to see last 4 games at 29% from Trey.
Let the slump continue in the conference tournament for a total of seven Cold games, the hit the Carney on fire for 6 games of 50% from Trey and, voila! Shoot our way past apparent seeding and whistle asymmetries!!!
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That % is our 3 point FG defense the last 4 games…
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@BeddieKU23 Uh-oh! I made a boo Boo. It sure seemed low for many were dropping last game at the end!
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No worries amigo, we all hope our trey cannon isn’t 29% come tourney time or we will be sweating it out!
