KU's Kryptonite (AKA the teams the NCAA will put in the Midwest Region)
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@Blown probably not. - - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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Not really about KU per se but figure we are talking about the tournament here. UK rounding into form…
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@KUSTEVE And #2 seed MSU lost to Middle Tennessee in the 1st round. (I know, the NCAA calls it the second round, but I still call the official 1st round the play in games.)
I am assuming Michigan State has spent the past year bitching about underseeded Middle Tennessee. Or maybe they were mad at having played so close to home.
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@BShark Wow, maybe Kensucky is good enough now where they would only lose to mighty Shlockers by 10 instead of 20…LOL…J/k no malice…
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@mayjayI meant the South Region. How in the world the number 1 overall seed could be moved out of the Midwest into the South still defies explanation.
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It just seems like the only way to be fair with bracketology is to have a system for determining seeding, and then have a randomizer program pick where they go. All except the placement of the top seeds in regions.
Otherwise… everyone is going to claim the system as rigged, and it is.
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KU’s Defensive Stats BTW over last 8…
First 4 games
W-L 3-1
PPG 80.5
3 pt FG pct 41.2
Last 4 Games
W-L 4-0
PPG 65.7
3 pt FG pct 29.5
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@KUSTEVE said:
@BShark Wow, maybe Kensucky is good enough now where they would only lose to mighty Shlockers by 10 instead of 20…LOL…J/k no malice…
Now that’s funny. Not sure who would win that game. I think it would be close though.
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@KUSTEVE Who were you more afraid of before the tournment, MSU or Nova? I was glad we weren’t playing MSU in their backyard. But it didn’t matter in the long run.
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@BShark Let me guess…you live in Wichita, right?
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Topeka. I don’t like WSU. I can recognize that they are a good team though.
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@mayjay I thought last year we were the best team in America, period. And we almost were. I believe we’re the best team in America this year as well. If we close out the next 4 with wins, we’ll be the number 1 overall seed 2 years running. I thought we caught a break getting Nova. Boy was I wrong.
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@BShark No doubt they are a good team. They aren’t on the same level as us, imho.
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The seedings are supposed to snake around, but some of that is affected by conference affiliation.
For example, if everything is assigned purely by seed, the following overall seeds would go to the following regions:
Region A - 1, 8, 9, 16, 17, 24, 25, 32
Region B - 2, 7, 10, 15, 18, 23, 26, 31
Region C - 3, 6, 11, 14, 19, 22, 27, 30
Region D - 4, 5, 12, 13, 20, 21, 28, 29
That’s the top 8 seeds in each region by overall seeding breakdown. However, things change when you start working with conference affiliation.
Here’s that same list, but with team’s assigned by RPI from today’s NCAA site (obviously this isn’t how the seedings will actually break out, but it gives us something to work with):
Region A - Villanova, Kentucky, Arizona, Minnesota, Virginia, Creighton, West Virginia, Wisconsin
Region B - Kansas, Baylor, Butler, UCLA, St. Mary’s, VCU, Xavier, Arkansas
Region C - Louisville, North Carolina, Gonzaga, Cincinnati, SMU, Notre Dame, Maryland, Middle Tennessee St.
Region D - Oregon, Florida, Florida State, Duke, Purdue, Dayton, Oklahoma State, South Carolina
That’s all four regions, 1-8. One rule is that conference foes cannot meet prior to the E8. In region C, SMU and Cincinnati would potentially meet in the Round of 32. That means one of them has to move, but you can’t create another bad matchup with that move. Wisconsin and Minnesota in Region A would be a potential S16 matchup that shouldn’t happen, but because they are lower seeds, they don’t get priority.
Additionally, Regions B and C would likely swap 2 seeds to avoid having the top seeds in those two regions both be from the same conference (Big 12 and ACC). Everyone would claim that they put KU and UNC in the same region for the storyline, but the truth is that Louisville and UNC should be split up, and Baylor and KU should be split up, so UNC and Baylor would flip regions in this hypothetical bracket. That same logic would likely move Creighton out of Region A and Xavier out of region B.
So we would likely end up with the following top 8 in each region (overall seed listed):
Region A - Villanova 1, Kentucky 8, Arizona 9, Duke 13, Virginia 17, VCU 23, West Virginia 25, Arkansas 31
Region B - Kansas 2, North Carolina 6, Butler 10, UCLA 15, St. Mary’s 18, Creighton 24, Maryland 27, Middle Tennessee St. 30
Region C - Louisville 3, Baylor 7, Gonzaga 11, Cincinnati 14, Purdue 20, Notre Dame 22, Xavier 26, South Carolina 29
Region D - Oregon 4, Florida 5, Florida State 12, Minnesota 16, SMU 19, Dayton 21, Oklahoma State 28, Wisconsin 32
Region A switches it’s 4, 6 and 8 seeds, with Duke moving into the 16 spot to separate from Florida State in D.
Region B exchanges it’s 2, 6, 7 and 8, but again, it’s just a move of one spot up or down.
Region C switches out its 2, 5, 7 and 8, again staying within one spot up or down.
Region D trades it’s 4, 5 and 8, and has the largest mover, with Wisconsin (32) replacing the 29 spot and Minnesota (16) trading places with Duke (13).
People would point to Louisville and Cincinnati in the same region, or UNC and KU, or Florida and Florida State as storyline matchups.
Villanova would cry foul that Duke is moved into their region, but you can’t leave Duke in D (Florida State) or move them to B (UNC) or C (Louisville), so they have to go to A.
And that’s how brackets get made, or made into a mess.
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They have a pretty similar statistical profile to KU. If you look at sites like Kenpom, they are ranked in about the same spot as us. I’m willing to hear the argument that they haven’t played anybody but I would bet they do well in the tournament.
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@KUSTEVE That’s why I changed my Avatar. Remember, George Brett wore the same underwear for 8 straight days while he was batting 400.
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@BShark I have no desire to change your mind about you thinking we would be beat by the Shlockers. You said we were going to lose to Dook. You said we were going to lose to Kensucky. You said we were going to lose to Baylor. Not surprising you would look at Kenpom and think we aren’t any good, and that the Shlockers would beat us. You have no faith in the team. Now this is not a personal indictment of you, merely a statement of fact.
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And how close was KU to losing all those games? Pretty damn close. Though admittedly KU played really poorly against Duke and I would bet both teams would play better in a rematch. But yeah we are talking about a bunch of games that all could have gone either way.
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@wrwlumpy Hmmmm… As I recall, that was the same year he had a certain problem that hampered him against the Phillies in the WS. Might not have been the best superstition. Why not a wrist band?
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There is no way in the world that you will convince me that KU, the overall #1 seed should have been in the south playing in DesMoines and Louisville instead of being in the Midwest playing in Oklahoma City and Chicago where KU has a huge alumni base last tournament.
Also, WSU was ranked as high as top 10, never dropped off the top 25 and was top 20 at selection time and yet ended up as a #11 seed when it should not have been any lower than #5 or #6. I can just about guarantee you that if not for the NCAA ban, the big time ACC/NC programs would be playing in state or close to home like they usually do. Sure, you can find instances when they don’t but more often than not they do get preferential treatment…this is in no way related to whether KU should have lost when it was not supposed to.
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Pick 3 teams seeded from 5 to 16 that you would prefer not to see in the Midwest Region.
Protected seeds No. 1 seeds No. 2 seeds No. 3 seeds No. 4 seeds
- Kansas* 5. Baylor 9. Duke 13. Florida State
- Villanova* 6. Oregon 10. Butler 14. UCLA
- North Carolina* 7. Louisville 11. Florida* 15. Purdue
- Gonzaga* 8. Arizona* 12. Kentucky 16. West Virginia
Mine would be - Oregon - Arizona - Florida - UCLA.
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@JayHawkFanToo won’t have the same problem this year. The number 1 overall seed gets to decide where it play.
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@JayHawkFanToo All I am saying is that it didn’t matter. You play where you are put. But I do believe the committee doesn’t try to hurt KU. How would that discussion go, anyway? Another cabal secretly working, year after year, to undermine a single coach… CBS and ESPN working hand in hand season after season.
And with all that talking, not once has anyone ever come forward with the biggest sports inside scoop of the century. As I said, although there are bad breaks sometimes, bad play is the bugaboo.
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@mayjay again, people blame others for a team’s poor play. Just like last year and against Michigan.
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I don’t. We should have kicked UM’s ASS. But instead the team pissed down it’s leg. That’s just a fact.
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One thing I do know. This team isn’t afraid of anything.
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Team’s with big strong guards and 4 big men, as well as running teams 9 Deep will populate KUs bracket. Being from the EST will be another criterion. --from Predictions of batenac 1.0, the Magnificient Seer from the Black Hole.
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If it’s me I’m saying Duke, Louisville, Kentucky and UCLA.
I hate re-matches, so Duke and Kentucky are no brainers. I worry about Louisville’s press and UCLA’s explosive offense.
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Teams I dont want to see mid major wise are Middle Tennessee, UT Arlington and WSU (maybe i really wanna play them if we can win). I think you will see a KU, WSU match up the NCAA committee always tries to match up a story to the games IMO for higher ratings. Like us playing UNC often and playing WSU 2 years ago. I’m not worried about playing UNC, Zaga and Nova becuase they are most likely to also get a 1 seed and we wont have to deal with them til the FF. I always hate playing against Izzo teams in march, they are kinda sleep walking into the dance currently and any Izzo team can make FF. I think UK maybe the most talented team, but can they put it together. I bet they are a 2 seed so us and them if placed in the same bracket have to do some winning before a match up happens. All in all idc who we play, to me its simple go play hard as @KUSTEVE said we are our own enemy. Coach wooden never watched film on teams they were playing, he was just worried about how they played.
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The 2013 NCAA tournament is evidence against KU being set up. That was the year UNC was our 8 seed, but in two other regions as 9 seeds were Wichita St. and Missouri. This was Missouri’s first year in the SEC, but the NCAA chose to send Missouri elsewhere.
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@wrwlumpy I don’t like our matchup against Oregon or UCLA. Kentucky scares me as well if they were to meet us in the elite 8. Would mean they were playing well. Don’t like WVU because the game completely depends on how the refs call the game.
I would love to play Arizona, Purdue, Butler and Florida State. We matchup well against Zona. Purdue doesn’t have the guard play to keep up and Lando can actually body up with Swannigan. Butler is good but not the Butler of old or Brad Stevens at the helm. But they are hot at the moment and that is always scary. And Florida State can’t win a road game. So I’m definitely not scared of them.
Everyone else I feel is a 50/50 ball game.
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I agree with you @KUSTEVE - the real enemy is the KU team themselves. They are capable of beating anyone and losing to anyone. Basically, that describes a typical Bill Self coached team going into the tournament. This year is no different than any other year, in my opinion.
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Another year without Mizzou in our bracket, that’s all I know. LOL
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Man, this year, this season KU has played in and won soooo many close games in crunch time, its not even funny! KU has lived on Saturday, Monday games all season long. This team has been baptized in the fiery crucible of March Madness style games and come out on top.
I want "Nova and KU for the final game in April.
KU has proven it can play against any type of team and win this season. Those Saturday Monday games coming up next month will be like walking to class for them.
I just got a good feeling about this team, I like our chances against anybody.
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@wissox said:
By your post it sounds like you’re implying the NCAA selection committee tries to stick it to KU. I know you’re not the only one saying this here. I’m not so sure this is true. I know east coast bias will be cited. Not sure of any other excuses people will make.
Fair to read it that way… I don’t have any evidence that the NCAA has a grudge.
H o w e v e r . . . I do think they like competitive games.
I’ve often wondered if the committee makes an effort to create dramatic competitions. Are those matchups that feature contrasting styles and interesting stories really a coincidence or more by design?
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@Kcmatt7 I was thinking about Purdue…If LL guards Swanigan…who guards Haas?
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@Hawk8086 Ding! We have a winner.
Now, is Purdue a #2, #3 or #4 seed? Depends on the B10 tournament results probably…
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@mayjay Right on the money. @KUSTEVE also was 100% correct. Think of each of the KU losses, and it was things that WE ourselves did not do, that caused our demise. Never overpowered and dominated, and blown out of the Tourney by 20.
Everything has been a 1-2 possession game. Simien for the tie (didnt). EJ for the tie (bizarre panic kickout) but also team self-destruct vs Michigan, too young vs Stanford & couldnt finish against length, didnt get back on D vs VCU, flat out disrespect for UNI, who also played unconventional ball. DID NOT DEFEND well in some of these losses. WSU was better than us at every position except for Devonte, and Frank was a wash.
Broke down into 1on1 ball, and missed bunnies vs UCLA in 2007. Got away from who we were.
Nova was a bitter loss, since we did everything but hit even 30% of our 3s. I think that got to Mason, and he dedicated himself to 3%. But Mason and Selden found other ways to score. But 2 top-of-key handoff turnovers, and Perry in his old shell, & we were done. 2 possession loss. Played decent D.
Poor FTs vs Syracuse and vs KY in 2012. Shot ourselves into a deep hole from 3 vs KY also. As well as missing 3 dunks, yet closed to within 5pts late…
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As a matter of perspective, I always try to remind myself of the finality of the Tournament season. This is it for many of our guys. So if we lose prematurely, I’ll feel worse for our kids in uniform 1000 x more than I would for my own fandom.
And this is when I also wont bash any of our players who had a horrible outing. Report on it as a factor in the loss, yes…but not going to vent at some youngster’s expense.
Hey, I get to be a fan/alum for the rest of my days. But I’m always hopeful we get the big NC win. Last year and this year, we have a contender. And we have Frank.version4.0…
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@ralster well said!
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Villanova last year is the only one of the tournament losses that I truly believe officiating had a direct impact on.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 Ya, exactly. The 2 charge calls on Perry immediately made him passive, sent him into his old shell (not seen his Sr year). He didnt attempt 1 trey, especially with Mason and Selden misfiring, and BGreene no-show/DNP.
Again, I’m not dogging Perry, but just supporting @Texas-Hawk-10 's excellent point about refs early in the Nova game, and also the fouls on Devonte. ALL that shiz mattered in a 2 possession game. Too damn bad we missed our open look 3s, would have beat Nova by 15+, all else being the same…sigh…
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@bskeet I’m sure they jump at any chance to justify putting interesting matchups in the 2nd/3rd/4th rounds.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 I’m only remembering the iffy call on DG that fouled him out. What else? I’m the first one to point out when we get screwed by officials, all the way back to 1986 against Duke in the FF. My memory of the 'Nova game was we just never broke their 3/4 pressure press. It led to the turnovers that ruined that game.
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@wissox Do you recall Perry getting 2 early charge calls? Changed the whole game right there, because it changed his mentality.
I recall we missed too many open-look 3s, so we clearly got past their 3/4 press most of the time.
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The best thing about this year’s team is that they are better shooters than the team that faced KY. Tyshawn didnt hit a 3 the whole 6 game tournament, and we relied on Connor Teahan off the bench.
So, eventhough this current team has had to mount some comebacks, they have found the toughness needed. And they’ve tasted success in doing so multiple times. So even if we come out “tight”, we have that team confidence to not get fazed. And we are more competent defensively, so as not get that far behind. Hopefully.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 said:
Villanova last year is the only one of the tournament losses that I truly believe officiating had a direct impact on.
I never said that refs don’t have an impact. Bad calls abound. It is still how you respond to them that makes the big difference. Contrast Perry becoming so passive with the number of times zillions of players all over bb have managed to play cleanly even with 4 fouls. We have seen JJ do it, LL and others.
You still have to play your game. No one ever won playing scared.
But, while bad calls are just part of the game, I don’t think outcomes are predetermined or that refs are just waiting for a chance, for example, to make a bad call. Nor do they make 30 foot killer shots for UNI or OT forcing shots by Michigan.
Anyone contending the tourney is corrupt has to do more than whine about us losing too often. HEM has provided lengthy analyses of why that has happened. Right or wrong, his theses are at least in the realm of very realistic possibility. Shoes? Time zones? Embargoes? Imaginary as goblins.
I remember someone playing the lottery who thought it had to be rigged because neither she nor anyone she knew ever won a big prize ($100K or more). But she kept playing! As bad in logic as math.
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@mayjay agreed. You have to play thru bad calls, it’s what tough teams do.
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@ralster To be honest, I don’t recall those, but I believe you.
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@wissox Ya…I’m trying to forget it all…I felt so bad for our team, they truly did put up a stiff fight. Held Nova to 20pts under their season avg. Just couldnt drop it in the ocean. Self didnt seem too mad, as he saw the effort, and Mason and Selden both combined for over 30pts, so they found other ways to score. We needed only about 3 plays to go our way.
