2021-22 PER's & Stats
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I noticed on Kempom that we are now ranked 3rd in toughest schedule.
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@Kcmatt7 said in 2021-22 PER's & Stats:
@BeddieKU23 I really think the bigger flaw for KU’s Kenpom ranking this year is the lack of versatility in the B12.
Basically screws them over because a good defensive showing against the 100th ranked offense doesn’t help them at all. Most conferences have a variety of tempos/styles. B12 this year is maybe the most boring conference in the country.
I’m wondering if this will be a problem for KU come tournament time. Rankings don’t really matter but the fact that KU seems to play the same type of team on repeat for the entire conference season may leave us vulnerable to different styles of play (see Kentucky game). Sure it’s good to go against tough defenses all the time and quality opponents all around but the diversity of styles, tempos, athleticism, etc. is really lacking in league.
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Just did some scrolling on this thread and interesting that Dave has been pretty consistent in PER for most of the year after a couple of bad games to start. Och has come back to earth a bit while still being pretty dang good. I’d have thought Och would have been leading this team in all the PER stats all year but that doesn’t seem to be the case. Did we undervalue Dave when he wasn’t passing the eye test?
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@benshawks08 said in 2021-22 PER's & Stats:
Just did some scrolling on this thread and interesting that Dave has been pretty consistent in PER for most of the year after a couple of bad games to start. Och has come back to earth a bit while still being pretty dang good. I’d have thought Och would have been leading this team in all the PER stats all year but that doesn’t seem to be the case. Did we undervalue Dave when he wasn’t passing the eye test?
FYI his per was 27 last yr. It’s easier for bigs to have higher numbers. Och having an elite level showing for the most part up 7 pts from last yr. Brauns numbers also way higher this season, almost 7 as well.
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Personally you can take all the Ken Prom BS and flush it down the toilet. What matters is who wins and who loses. My opinion only.
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Ken Pom is not perfect by any means but it’s the best thing, I think, out there that accounts pace of each game and opponents vrs just the final score.
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@rockchalkwyo Statistics don’t wear a uniform. There is so much that statistics can’t cover, that to me, makes them pretty much worthless. They have no way of knowing the emotional aspects of a particular game. Do they know anything about the injury status of a team. So many variables that can’t be quantified that it makes gauging a team virtually impossible. I agree that statistics on a team make for an interesting debate but I sure as hell not going to bet my money on them.
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@jessejayhawk you’re not wrong. I really do see where you’re coming from. It to me just gives a rough and more importantly, free gauge as to how the team is doing. You’re absolutely right that it doesn’t account for a lot of important variables.
Is there anything out there that does? That’s also free?
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@rockchalkwyo Good point!
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@jessejayhawk said in 2021-22 PER's & Stats:
Personally you can take all the Ken Prom BS and flush it down the toilet. What matters is who wins and who loses. My opinion only.
Insightful comment on an analytics thread
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@Kcmatt7 Under the SNARK system, that comment was actually highly rated, losing points only at the end for acknowledging it was opinion instead of insisting on it being a fact (often forgotten: SNARK algorithm gives more for spelling out F A C T). Your comment scored lower but still in the top ten.
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@mayjay too bad Jesse doesn’t care about your stats or ratings. I on the other hand, will take this rating, analyze it, and see how I can do better in the future.
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@Kcmatt7 On further review, our analysts discovered that improper grammar, syntax and punctuation in the other post were overlooked due to heavy use of alcohol by the initial rater (“Personally you…”). Accordingly, SNARK has now placed your comment at the top of the heap, and great praise is due you!
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Any who…. KU is still 8 in kenpom. #3 offense previous #3 #36 defense previous #30
That wasn’t a bad loss now that I have a day of whining under my belt.
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@rockchalkwyo said in 2021-22 PER's & Stats:
Any who…. KU is still 8 in kenpom. #3 offense previous #3 #36 defense previous #30
That wasn’t a bad loss now that I have a day of whining under my belt.
It wasn’t a bad loss from the perspective of losing a close game to a ranked team on their home court.
But from the perspective that it’s most points UT has scored in more than 2 months (and against UT - Rio Grande Valley or something) - that our end of each half execution was abysmal - that we missed crucial FTs in crunch time - that we committed numerous unforced TOs - that we gave up numerous to ORBs to a team that isn’t particularly good at rebounding - and given that we could have easily picked up a good road win and gotten a big leg up on the B12 title - it was a bad loss…
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Updated post Texas Letdown. Added Torvik, Massey Ratings, Bracket Matrix projection for March.
Points
PER’s
Kenpom, Torvik, Massey, Bracket Matrix
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Added the Sagarin Ratings
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@BeddieKU23 Basically all of this is telling the same story. The O is elite, the D is pretty good.
Something positive here - this team has better metrics than the 17-18 FF team that I think plays a pretty similar run and gun style. That team did okay… I think they were slightly better offensively (everyone on the floor could score). And they had a Doke who was an okay rim protector that season. But this team has two NBA wings. Jalen is a future pro. Dave is a future pro. (Not NBA but pro somewhere). So this team definitely has enough talent to still make a run. Especially if they are playing their best ball here in February like they seem to be.
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Yupp we are better then most out there. Need to stay healthy or get some guys healthy again.
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Purdue had a Texas game, too. Only they got walloped:
“Just two days after reclaiming a share of the Big Ten lead with a convincing 16-point win over No. 13 Illinois, No. 3 Purdue turned in a dud on Thursday night in an 82-58 loss at Michigan. The outcome ends a six-game winning streak for the Boilermakers (21-4, 10-4 Big Ten) and gives Michigan’s NCAA Tournament resume a much-needed boost.”
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Purdue’s defense is 126th on Kenpom now. I thought Iowa from last season would be the worst defense for a top 10 offense we’d see in our lifetimes.
But just one year later Matt Painter has quite possibly the biggest disparity between offense and defense in CBB history. It is really insane.
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Updated post Oklahoma/Oklahoma St wins
Ochai in #27th place all time. Dave creeping towards 1,000, needs 48 points to get to #62 all-time.
PER’s-
Zach for MVP LOL
Kenpom & Torvik
Massey, Sagarin, Bracket Matrix
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Zac is a bad ass. I tweeted him when he first signed, and he tweeted back, which was surprising. So happy he was the first big off the bench last night. Unleash the…ZACKKEN!
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This is like the exact thing we needed in order to keep both him and KJ I think. I was a little bit worried that we would lose one of them, but I’m hoping this is a good sign.
I admit I was HARSH on Zach early in the year. But he keeps putting up good numbers, and good things happen with him on the floor. At this point I’m really hopeful that him and KJ both hang around and anchor the front court. I think we are going to be spoiled next season.
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Zach is instant offense. He starts here next season imo.
I think he got overlooked a bit coming in because of the expected freshman growing pains under Self. He needs to continue to work on defense & his body in the offseason but there’s no doubt he’s a very skilled player. So happy he’s back healthy enough to play because these are valuable minutes. I think the Zach/Yesufu bench rotation has elevated our ceiling.
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@BeddieKU23 When he got the lob bucket last night, it just felt like a big moment to me. Where he showed he was big and strong enough to push another big man around. I’m sure Bill was pleased
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Yeah that was a really solid play from him. There is tremendous upside to his offensive skill if he gets that lower body good enough to bang in the post when needed. He really is an offseason away from being a duel inside/out threat on the regular
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This is never going to be a “Self hates Zach” narrative. Bill’s pants fit weird when he thinks about Bobby and Zach anchoring this squad for the next few years.
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@FarmerJayhawk said in 2021-22 PER's & Stats:
This is never going to be a “Self hates Zach” narrative. Bill’s pants fit weird when he thinks about Bobby and Zach anchoring this squad for the next few years.
Yeah the word has always been super positive about Zach. Practices the right way etc…
I think we might have seen this sooner if not for the toe injury.
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Updated post WVU win
Och hits 500 points and Dave 24 points from 1,000!!
Kenpom, Torvik, Massey, Sagarin all liked the win.
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WVU offense that game would make any defense look good!
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@benshawks08 said in 2021-22 PER's & Stats:
WVU offense that game would make any defense look good!
Offensive offense
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47th to 28th . I’ll take it…
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@Jethro said in 2021-22 PER's & Stats:
47th to 28th . I’ll take it…
Trending decently in February so far. Only giving up 64 ppg this month with 2 more to go.
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@BeddieKU23 said in 2021-22 PER's & Stats:
Trending decently in February so far. Only giving up 64 ppg this month with 2 more to go.
KSU won’t crack 60 tomorrow. Book it.
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@tis4tim said in 2021-22 PER's & Stats:
@BeddieKU23 said in 2021-22 PER's & Stats:
Trending decently in February so far. Only giving up 64 ppg this month with 2 more to go.
KSU won’t crack 60 tomorrow. Book it.
As long as Pack doesn’t have 35 again I’d agree
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@BeddieKU23 said in 2021-22 PER's & Stats:
As long as Pack doesn’t have 35 again I’d agree
I’d wager Bill is challenging Harris’ manhood even now in regards to guarding Pack. He’ll be lucky to score half that tomorrow.
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Thanking you again.
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Last year he scored 10 pts on 4-10 shooting & 2-5 from 3 in Allen.
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Pack season avg 17.1 I’ll take that though 42% on threes is a bit scary.
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He’s a very good shooter. He can get his as long as nobody else does
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KU #5 in the AP Poll. Baylor #10. It’s on this weekend.
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@BeddieKU23 said in 2021-22 PER's & Stats:
@Jethro said in 2021-22 PER's & Stats:
47th to 28th . I’ll take it…
Trending decently in February so far. Only giving up 64 ppg this month with 2 more to go.
Our rating hasn’t improved much though right? Our ranking has, but the rating has pretty much held at 94? Meaning teams in front of us are sucking and we are holding serve.
94.2 d rating is 28th this year, but would have been tied for 44th a year ago. Just something to chew on
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I haven’t tracked it on an individual game to game basis but believe its trending slightly better in February from what I recall when I update it after every game. I could be wrong there though. I’ll start tracking our actual ratings starting now to see if we see any meaningful trend there. They are giving up 4 less ppg then the previous 3 months so even if the metrics don’t say it this defense has given up less points so far in February. Obviously we need to finish this week out to have all data there
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https://vm.tiktok.com/TTPdSYrpue/
Some metric tourney breakdown stuff in the video. Apparently we don’t have a shot at the title…
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@benshawks08 said in 2021-22 PER's & Stats:
Some metric tourney breakdown stuff in the video. Apparently we don’t have a shot at the title…
As long as we’re in the tourney, we have a shot. That’s good enough for me.
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@tis4tim Same! First time for everything! And I just refuse to believe Texas has a better shot than we do.
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@Kcmatt7 Just a thought- maybe our great offense leads to worse defense. If you go back and look at our worst defense, it was Doke, Devonte, Malik, … that crew. They were also top 5 offensively. And they went to the Final Four. I don’t think we have to be Top 5 in defense to make a run. I know everyone is worried that our defense will let us down, but the other side of the coin is we’ve learned how to score against the number 1 ranked defensive schedule in America. And we’re 22-4, leading the best conference in the nation by 2 games. That’s strong as horseradish.
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@Jethro I’m just really pointing out that while it looks like the defense has improved by rankings, might not actually be the case.
I think this team is capable of a FF run for sure
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Ochai passed Wilt Chamberlain last night for 26th place all-time on the scoring list.
With 4 games left in the regular season Ochai is on pace to be in #21st place all-time passing Drew Gooden.
From there it’s realistic that he could pass Calvin Thompson, Kenny Gregory, Jeff Boschee & Tyshawn Taylor at his current scoring average in the Big-12 tournament putting him #17 place heading into the NCAA Tourney.
PER’s. Yesufu & Wilson saw decent sized bumps for this late in the season.
Analytics liked this win. Now 3rd overall in Bracket Matrix. Offense went up on both Kenpom/Torvik while D slightly down. Kenpom overall rating slightly up and trending towards the 2011-12 squad that made the finals.
