2021-22 PER's & Stats
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@drgnslayr said in 2021-22 PER's & Stats:
I’m definitely not checking Jalen off my list. I still have faith he will come on big this year. Partially, I hold on to Self’s statement about how much quicker the team is with him in the lineup. However… I do think the team has been speeding up some without him on the floor.
Jalen is like any of these guys… regardless of athleticism… if you want to be effective on offense, watch the Zags and how those guys cut to the rim when off-ball. He could be a total beast at this!
I get you, and he pushes the ball up the court, but is living (and not very well) out at the three point line.
With Dave at the 5, Braun and Ochai doing what they do and they both need to keep doing it, and Remy and JCL starting to come on and others also contributing where does that leave Jalen? For real? Can he out rebound Braun or Dave? Where will he position himself?
I am onboard with what @BShark said, he needs to be Dave’s backup. Why? Because he needs to play inside, only occassionally drifting out. He cannot play alongside Dave, it hurts the flow of the team.
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I don’t think he’s a legit 5 defender unless we convert to an X-axis team… (not gonna happen).
Mitch is our 5 backup.
Jalen is our best rebounder.
If we flip to Self’s new version of “hi-lo” then Jalen works fine… sort of like the Memphis team we beat in '08. Motion offense… dribble drive… feed the paint when it works. Starting to look like Self is figuring this out anyways. We don’t win on a traditional hi-lo. Teams aren’t really taking Dave as the ultimate threat and he can sometimes do more to clog the paint then be our best option in the paint. I don’t want to trash Dave… he has received plenty of unwarranted heat already. Dave is good as long as we use him properly.
Having 4 perimeter players all capable of driving the paint sounds like a winning strategy to me. I guarantee you Mark Few would LOVEEEE to have our options!
Jalen can handle the 4 spot and have him basically opposite (along the baseline) with Och… and use Och for the backdoor alleyoops… both guys slashing towards the paint… both guys popping out anywhere on the trey line… both guys cutting to the rim to take a feed (Zags style). Unlimited options.
We just can’t have that offense where we put 4 guys on the perimeter and try to out-speed pass the defense. That’s when we know we are flat (as has always been the case and probably half my rants on here throughout the years).
This has to be one of Bill’s more entertaining teams to scheme offense around! Has to be!
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Updated post SFA
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Updated post Oklahoma St win.
Points
PER
Kenpom
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Some interesting stats
KU had 49 dunks last year, they already have 51 in 13 games.
McCormack only makes 55% of his close 2’s. Remy & Harris are also under 60% but they are also 6’0 tall.
Ochai should stop shooting long 2’s, only hitting 30% clip. Remy shooting 57% on them so its a good shot for him.
Jalen Wilson shooting 73% on close 2’s so maybe he should only shoot layups cause he can’t make anything else.
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The metrics have not been kind to KU this week.
PER’s- Since conference play 9 of 12 players have seen their PER drop several points.
Och with over 300 points in 15 games. Heck of season for him so far.
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@BeddieKU23 Not really that surprising that PERs have dropped so much since conference play started. Our conference opponents, even OSU, are probably 3 of the 4 best teams we’ve played all season. Certainly the 3 best defensive teams. Our non-conference schedule revealed almost nothing meaningful about this team - other than we could lose to a 6 loss team comprised mostly of freshmen. Most years, we are near the top in Quad 1 wins. Not this year - I think we have just 2 or 3 at this point. Some teams have 10 or more.
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Lots of Quad 1 and 2 wins to get in conference play + Kentucky still on the books.
Will be interesting to see if PER’s revert back up or this trend is something more concerning
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@BeddieKU23 said in 2021-22 PER's & Stats:
Lots of Quad 1 and 2 wins to get in conference play + Kentucky still on the books.
Will be interesting to see if PER’s revert back up or this trend is something more concerning
If the current play continues with a healthy Remy I will be concerned.
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Will he get healthy is certainly my question at this point.
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@BeddieKU23 said in 2021-22 PER's & Stats:
Will he get healthy is certainly my question at this point.
Bill sounds… not optimistic about him coming back super soon.
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@BShark said in 2021-22 PER's & Stats:
@BeddieKU23 said in 2021-22 PER's & Stats:
Lots of Quad 1 and 2 wins to get in conference play + Kentucky still on the books.
Will be interesting to see if PER’s revert back up or this trend is something more concerning
If the current play continues with a healthy Remy I will be concerned.
I wouldn’t neccessarily be drooling about playing Kentucky this year. Night and Day from last year and we have No answer not even close for their inside guys this year
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Yeah Oscar. He might break the rebound record against us
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@BeddieKU23 said in 2021-22 PER's & Stats:
Yeah Oscar. He might break the rebound record against us
very easily could nobody handle him
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Shibway(lol) we need to pray
He gets in foul trouble. He did a few times against us.
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After a " Good for the Soul beatdown" here’s some updated stats.
Ochai Agbaji is now #35th on the all-time scoring list halfway through his stellar senior season.
At his current scoring rate (20.6ppg) Ochai would be in #19 place by the end of the regular season just passing Kenny Gregory and a few shy of Jeff Boschee. An extended run in both the Big-12 tournament and NCAA tournament could see him jump all the way to #14 just shy of Devonte Graham, at his current scoring rate.
At any rate Agbaji has a good chance at cracking the Top 20 all-time. What an achievement that’s in his sights after coming to KU as an unheralded recruit and even being red-shirting his freshman year for half that season. Ochai your a stud!!
Uptick in points for Wilson getting over 100 on the season.
KU got back to pre- Iowa St numbers
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Updated after K-ST.
Och can score the rock!
Jalen’s PER has skyrocketed up lately. Och at an Elite level for a Guard
Kenpom did not like our dramatic win against K-St especially defensively. Obviously we know we sucked on that end for a large stretch.
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@BeddieKU23 said in 2021-22 PER's & Stats:
Updated after K-ST.
Och can score the rock!
Jalen’s PER has skyrocketed up lately. Och at an Elite level for a Guard
Kenpom did not like our dramatic win against K-St especially defensively. Obviously we know we sucked on that end for a large stretch.
Yeah 1.45 ppp for the first half is going to have an impact on overall defensive stats! Yikes. But I do think our defense is improving after that game believe it or not. That second half showed the team (and self) can get stops consistently when dialed in and with a sound game plan.
I’m wondering if less switching might do this team good on d. Just to turn up the individual pressure won players to stay engaged.
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@benshawks08 I definitely think it is weird we don’t do more things like have Harris deny their best player the ball like we did with Pack.
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@Kcmatt7 Seems like maybe the team has struggled so much with the fundamentals Self values that perhaps there hasn’t been as much focus on game planning for individuals/teams. I think having an active Dave in the paint can really help this team defensively. At least there’d be a big body jumping and flailing at lay up attempts.
I really do think they’ll get it worked out by the end of the season. Not to the point where they are an elite defensive team, but a solid one none the less.
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Kenpom rankings a bit weird this year. Only 2 top 10 defenses in the top 10 teams. And they are 10th and 8th. The fewest of any year.
3 would end up tying it, and there is a lot of season left. But it could be a sign of a wild tourney…
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Interesting that 7 of the top 10 offenses are in the Top 10 rankings.
Arizona sitting at #3 after getting completely clobbered last night by #10 UCLA. Really Zona didn’t even look competitive. So are the rankings way off?
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Updated after the Tech Win. Och sits 16 pts away from tying Mario Chalmers for 30th all time on the scoring list
PER’s
Kenpom really hates our defense
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Updated for Kentucky/Iowa St
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Updated post Baylor spanking
Ochai sits at #30 all time. He needs 16 points tonight to pass Marcus Morris, 18 to pass Adonis Jordan & 20 to pass Richard Scott.
PER’s
Win was good for Kenpom.
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@BeddieKU23 Do the points totals include NCAA & Conference Tournament games?
Just something to think about, Och missed time as a freshman (thinking he would redshirt). And then he missed an NCAA tournament run. Plus last years conference tournament got called early right? They only played 30 games. Pre-covid schedules were at least 35 games.
I mean he has easily been screwed out of 22 games. He should probably have like an additional 150-200 points. Not sure where that would put him, but just throwing it out there.
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Yes this incorporates all games played for Och. He has had an unlucky run of it when you think of games missed due to things that were not in his control.
If we took his 13 ppg career average x 22 games to his current total that would be 1356 + 286 = would put him #15 all time going into tonight’s game. It’s a big difference that he doesn’t have those extra games
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@BeddieKU23 I really think the bigger flaw for KU’s Kenpom ranking this year is the lack of versatility in the B12.
Basically screws them over because a good defensive showing against the 100th ranked offense doesn’t help them at all. Most conferences have a variety of tempos/styles. B12 this year is maybe the most boring conference in the country.
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Yeah style of play in the league this year is bad. I think defenses are better this year because everyone has 25 year olds up and down the lineup.
8th is about right besides when we play like we did Saturday then obviously we are capable of being ranked higher in metrics/polls. If this past week was the start of one of those KU runs we may see a rise up on everything. We’ll see.
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I noticed on Kempom that we are now ranked 3rd in toughest schedule.
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@Kcmatt7 said in 2021-22 PER's & Stats:
@BeddieKU23 I really think the bigger flaw for KU’s Kenpom ranking this year is the lack of versatility in the B12.
Basically screws them over because a good defensive showing against the 100th ranked offense doesn’t help them at all. Most conferences have a variety of tempos/styles. B12 this year is maybe the most boring conference in the country.
I’m wondering if this will be a problem for KU come tournament time. Rankings don’t really matter but the fact that KU seems to play the same type of team on repeat for the entire conference season may leave us vulnerable to different styles of play (see Kentucky game). Sure it’s good to go against tough defenses all the time and quality opponents all around but the diversity of styles, tempos, athleticism, etc. is really lacking in league.
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Just did some scrolling on this thread and interesting that Dave has been pretty consistent in PER for most of the year after a couple of bad games to start. Och has come back to earth a bit while still being pretty dang good. I’d have thought Och would have been leading this team in all the PER stats all year but that doesn’t seem to be the case. Did we undervalue Dave when he wasn’t passing the eye test?
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@benshawks08 said in 2021-22 PER's & Stats:
Just did some scrolling on this thread and interesting that Dave has been pretty consistent in PER for most of the year after a couple of bad games to start. Och has come back to earth a bit while still being pretty dang good. I’d have thought Och would have been leading this team in all the PER stats all year but that doesn’t seem to be the case. Did we undervalue Dave when he wasn’t passing the eye test?
FYI his per was 27 last yr. It’s easier for bigs to have higher numbers. Och having an elite level showing for the most part up 7 pts from last yr. Brauns numbers also way higher this season, almost 7 as well.
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Personally you can take all the Ken Prom BS and flush it down the toilet. What matters is who wins and who loses. My opinion only.
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Ken Pom is not perfect by any means but it’s the best thing, I think, out there that accounts pace of each game and opponents vrs just the final score.
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@rockchalkwyo Statistics don’t wear a uniform. There is so much that statistics can’t cover, that to me, makes them pretty much worthless. They have no way of knowing the emotional aspects of a particular game. Do they know anything about the injury status of a team. So many variables that can’t be quantified that it makes gauging a team virtually impossible. I agree that statistics on a team make for an interesting debate but I sure as hell not going to bet my money on them.
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@jessejayhawk you’re not wrong. I really do see where you’re coming from. It to me just gives a rough and more importantly, free gauge as to how the team is doing. You’re absolutely right that it doesn’t account for a lot of important variables.
Is there anything out there that does? That’s also free?
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@rockchalkwyo Good point!
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@jessejayhawk said in 2021-22 PER's & Stats:
Personally you can take all the Ken Prom BS and flush it down the toilet. What matters is who wins and who loses. My opinion only.
Insightful comment on an analytics thread
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@Kcmatt7 Under the SNARK system, that comment was actually highly rated, losing points only at the end for acknowledging it was opinion instead of insisting on it being a fact (often forgotten: SNARK algorithm gives more for spelling out F A C T). Your comment scored lower but still in the top ten.
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@mayjay too bad Jesse doesn’t care about your stats or ratings. I on the other hand, will take this rating, analyze it, and see how I can do better in the future.
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@Kcmatt7 On further review, our analysts discovered that improper grammar, syntax and punctuation in the other post were overlooked due to heavy use of alcohol by the initial rater (“Personally you…”). Accordingly, SNARK has now placed your comment at the top of the heap, and great praise is due you!
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Any who…. KU is still 8 in kenpom. #3 offense previous #3 #36 defense previous #30
That wasn’t a bad loss now that I have a day of whining under my belt.
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@rockchalkwyo said in 2021-22 PER's & Stats:
Any who…. KU is still 8 in kenpom. #3 offense previous #3 #36 defense previous #30
That wasn’t a bad loss now that I have a day of whining under my belt.
It wasn’t a bad loss from the perspective of losing a close game to a ranked team on their home court.
But from the perspective that it’s most points UT has scored in more than 2 months (and against UT - Rio Grande Valley or something) - that our end of each half execution was abysmal - that we missed crucial FTs in crunch time - that we committed numerous unforced TOs - that we gave up numerous to ORBs to a team that isn’t particularly good at rebounding - and given that we could have easily picked up a good road win and gotten a big leg up on the B12 title - it was a bad loss…
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Updated post Texas Letdown. Added Torvik, Massey Ratings, Bracket Matrix projection for March.
Points
PER’s
Kenpom, Torvik, Massey, Bracket Matrix
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Added the Sagarin Ratings
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@BeddieKU23 Basically all of this is telling the same story. The O is elite, the D is pretty good.
Something positive here - this team has better metrics than the 17-18 FF team that I think plays a pretty similar run and gun style. That team did okay… I think they were slightly better offensively (everyone on the floor could score). And they had a Doke who was an okay rim protector that season. But this team has two NBA wings. Jalen is a future pro. Dave is a future pro. (Not NBA but pro somewhere). So this team definitely has enough talent to still make a run. Especially if they are playing their best ball here in February like they seem to be.
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Yupp we are better then most out there. Need to stay healthy or get some guys healthy again.
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Purdue had a Texas game, too. Only they got walloped:
“Just two days after reclaiming a share of the Big Ten lead with a convincing 16-point win over No. 13 Illinois, No. 3 Purdue turned in a dud on Thursday night in an 82-58 loss at Michigan. The outcome ends a six-game winning streak for the Boilermakers (21-4, 10-4 Big Ten) and gives Michigan’s NCAA Tournament resume a much-needed boost.”
