Vick Coming Back
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I see “Self” is mentioned twice…oh wait…never mind…
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@mayjay sounds good!
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Vick was the ultimate team player in the Duke game to take us to the Final Four. I’m sure that Self recalled how fantastic Vick has become in the middle of the zone. His pass to Newman in the Overtime was a thing of unselfish beauty. Watch the guys that are coming back this year. De Sousa played the entire overtime and though he threw the ball into the stands, He was a monster on the boards when KU needed him the most. The new guards need to quickly get up to speed on the lob. I hear that Garret is shining in practice.
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@wrwlumpy Garrett is great. Some people write him off because of his jump shot but in every other way he is at worst above average at basketball.
Also I can rewatch that game rewind any day!
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I’m already looking forward to the Grimes to Vick backdoor dunk. It’s going to be a great season. I can’t wait.
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@BShark I meant to post about Garrett, but there was some articles written about how he’s changed his jump shot and is working hard to be a better shooter.
http://www.gctelegram.com/sports/20180702/ku-sophomore-garrett-changing-shooting-form
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HighEliteMajor said:
@BShark I meant to post about Garrett, but there was some articles written about how he’s changed his jump shot and is working hard to be a better shooter.
http://www.gctelegram.com/sports/20180702/ku-sophomore-garrett-changing-shooting-form
If he gets his shooting numbers up there could be a very real chance he is one of the best couple players on the team.
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@wrwlumpy after that game I saw on tv, a huge hug from Vick to coach, it was very genuine too.
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Remember I said the same thing and you though i was…well… …starting the weekend early…
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@JayHawkFanToo haha gotem!
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@JayHawkFanToo I hope you are right. If I were having to bet on a specific percentage, I’d go 31%. Your “mid to upper 30s” is a bold one.
It does beg the question. If Garrett could change his form and work on his shot in the offseason, what was Doke doing last summer? Dunno.
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Haven’t really chimed in on this. Looks like it was a good thing.
I’m still shocked Vick is coming back. That seemed like a closed door to me. I’ve been fooled twice this off-season. First Doke returned and now Vick. Glad I was wrong.
The biggest question for me regarding this whole thing is what happens if he doesn’t ride the straight and narrow at every turn? Is this the final straw he’s been given? Will Self let him be a continued distraction if he reverts back to old habits? Distractions always end up hurting this team in the end.
What happens when the initial “I’m going to be different” wears off.
I know many of these questions we don’t have the answer too. We’ll have to see how it plays out
I hope he truly takes this chance to heart and becomes the player many of us thought he could be.
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Vick will be on a short leash and if he stray too much he will be gone. I would think one of the reason Coach Self let him come back is because after the Summer he will need just 12 credits to graduate which he can easily do it and graduate in December and, even if he is let go and does not make it to the NBA, at least he will have a college degree to get him started in the real world.
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HighEliteMajor said:
It does beg the question. If Garrett could change his form and work on his shot in the offseason, what was Doke doing last summer? Dunno.
Probably healing and getting physically into playing shape which he still is not quite there yet although he has made great progress. He averaged 23.6 mpg and was the only starter not to be in the 30s. Carrying 280 pounds, even on 7’ body has to be pretty taxing.
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@JayHawkFanToo Unfortunately there is no excuse. It was a miss by the coaching staff.
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I’ll wonder how short the leash is. We’ll find out. It would suck if he’s a starter and something happens. We have depth but this team likely is better with his skills on the floor.
Vick is in a great position to capitalize on his seniority given he’s the only senior. We know he doesn’t have the character of a leader but this is a great opportunity. Would love to see him step up the way Devonte and Frank did in prior seasons.
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@BeddieKU23 I agree on the leader thing. Folks can mature into being a leader, and folks can be shocked into reality. The change in perspective can be life altering. Now, of course, that might be too dramatic a wish here. But really, if he can just play his game on the Court and not be a distraction otherwise, we’d take that in a heartbeat. I am very optimistic – first team all conference optimism.
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Individuals show leadership in different ways. Some are vocal and demonstrative like Mason and Graham and others are more quiet and show leadership by example like Ellis and Lucas. I understand Lightfoot is a good one in practice and was very helpful to De Sousa. Some are good everyday leaders and some really shine under stress.
Vick is now in a situation where failure is not an option if he has any hope of playing at the next level. There is no going back to college fall back option and being dismissed from the team would be the kiss of death. I don’t believe we can expect to see a vocal Vick leader but hopefully he will let his game speak for him and provide leadership by example. Good Vick is All Conference and bad Vick does not see the second half of the season; I am hoping it is the first; I am sure we all are.
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Imagine if KU wins the tournament this year. Vick would have EE, EE, FF and a title. That would have to be the most success any player has had in the tournament while at KU.
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BShark said:
Imagine if KU wins the tournament this year. Vick would have EE, EE, FF and a title. That would have to be the most success any player has had in the tournament while at KU.
If that were to happen, Vick might finish his career as the winningest Jayhawk of all time. Currently, by my count the winningest four year players are Tyrel Reed, who won 132 games in his career, Elijah Johnson, who won 131 games in his career, then Sherron Collins with 130 wins.
Vick is at 97 wins right now, and with a loaded KU team this year, 36 wins, while a very high mark, isn’t out of the question, particularly if KU were to win the title. No national champ has won less than 32 games in a season since 2003 (Syracuse went 30-5), but since most national title game participants are playing in their 39th or 40th game of the season now, it’s unlikely this KU team would have that few wins if they were to win the title.
If this team wins a national title, Vick probably lands very close to being the winningest Jayhawk of all time, if he doesn’t end up with the top spot outright.
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https://www.kansascity.com/sports/college/big-12/university-of-kansas/article214618295.html
Here’s a pretty good article from Jesse Newell on the PT effect Vick will have on the rest of the roster.
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I’d be very happy if he’s not a distraction. I think we have other players more capable of becoming leaders if Vick cannot change who he is. Some can, some can’t and I won’t fault him for it. It’s still a tremendous opportunity though. It can be the driving force. He’s seen the drive of Frank and Devonte the past two seasons so the groundwork he’s witnessed first hand. He knows what’s expected of him if he does take that route.
For the better part of 2 years Vick has been a lingering distraction. Is there a bubble we can put Vick in off the court? Between the girlfriend issues and whatever ale’d him last season he’s certainly walked a thin line. Would be a great story at some point next season if he’s able to bounce back and help lead this promising squad to great things this upcoming season.
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I think that Newell overestimates Vick’s minutes. I find it odd that it has Grimes getting more minutes with Vick than without. I would guess nobody will be getting more than about 28-32 mpg with the depth KU has. I also think it is severely underestimating how much Devon Dotson will play. If Dotson is playing less than 15 mpg, I will be shocked. Charlie Moore is likely to see a good amount of time, but I’m not sure he gets quite that many minutes, particularly since Dotson may start, if not immediately then eventually.
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I’m really interested in the rotation for sure. I actually think Vick’s addition changes everyone’s minutes except Dotson and Grimes.
Vick’s addition means that there will be direct minutes taken away from Garrett and KJ at the 3.
There will also be indirect minutes taken from the post play, as well as an advantage gained, imo. Vick’s addition indirectly adds more depth to our post play by letting KJ get minutes at the 4. More depth means more aggression from our post players. More aggression means fewer, but more impactful minutes from Dedric and Doke. Below is my guess for the rotation and stats for players.
PG:
- Dotson: 28 MPG, 9 PPG, 3.8 AST, 3 TOV, 1.2 STL, 3 RBD
- Moore: 12 MPG, 3 PPG, 2 AST, 1 TOV, .5 STL, .5 RBD
SG:
- Grimes: 32 MPG, 14 PPG, 2.5 AST, 3 TOV, 1.2 STL, .5 BLK, 3 RBD
- Garrett: 8 MPG, 3 PPG, 1 AST, .2 TOV, 1 STL, .5 BLK, 3 RBD
SF:
- KJ: 20 MPG, 5 PPG, 1.2 AST, 1 TOV, 1 STL, .5 BLK, 4 RBD
- Vick: 20 MPG, 9 PPG, 1.2 AST, 1 TOV, 1 STL, .5 BLK, 2 RBD
PF:
- Dedric: 28 MPG, 14 PPG, 2 AST, 1.5 TOV, .8 STL, 2.5 BLK, 7 RBD
- KJ: 8 MPG, 4 PPG, .5 AST, .5 TOV, .2 STL, .3 BLK, 3 RBD
- Mitch: 4 MPG, 2 PPG, .1 AST, .1 TOV, .2 STL, 1 BLK, 3 RBD
C:
- Doke: 20 MPG, 11 PPG, .8 AST, 1.5 TOV, .5 STL, 2.5 BLK, 7 RBD
- De Sousa: 15 MPG, 5 PPG, .1 AST, 1.5 TOV, .3 STL, 1 BLK, 6 RBD
- Big Dave: 5 MPG, 2 PPG, .1 AST, .2 TOV, .2 STL, .5 BLK, 3 RBD
Team Line:
81 PPG, 15.3 AST, 14.5 TOV, 8.1 STL, 9.8 BLK, 44.5 RBD
Comparison to last season, for perspective:
I have us scoring roughly the same points as last season. While we may not be AS talented scoring the ball, this team will not go through those same periods of stalling with Devonte walking the ball up the court slowly. I also expect twice as many blocked shots and about 9 more rebounds per game. I expect a few more turnovers per game as well, with a rookie running point. I expect a 30% increase in steals, topping off what I consider to be a superior defensive team to last seasons. Perhaps, a superior defensive team to the rest of the country.
Comparison to 2008 team:
The 2008 team shared the ball amazingly well. Much better than my projections, although my first round saw us having close to the 18 per game the 2008 team had. Both teams should have similar defensive prowess, although I believe that this year’s team will block more shots than the 2008 bunch. I may have overprojected this season’s rebound numbers, but I also think this is a better rebounding team than 2008. KJ is a better rebounder than Rush, Dedric is the best rebounder out of both teams. The 2008 team was far from turnover prone, but they did take care of the ball better.
All in all, this team looks as good as any in the Self Era, at least on paper. What I expect is an elite defensive team that is able to play through the post, score consistently and still have the versatility to run and gun if needed. As long as everyone stays healthy, this is a FF or bust year imo.
Also note that my projections do not expect a crazy season from Dotson, and that if he develops into a player better than what I have projected here, this team is absolutely insane.
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There is some pressure on either Moore or Dotson to emerge. With so many weapons, you have to have a good PG to make sure everyone eats. RussRob did that exceptionally well in 2008 to be sure that Rush, Arthur and Chalmers all got opportunities every night.
Either Dotson or Moore has to be able to do the same for this team.
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I believe the number come from Bart Torvik and Newell was just using them but did not generate them himself.
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@justanotherfan I expect one of them to be solid, but just not an AA. Probably not even 1st team all conference.
I’m just saying they don’t necessarily need to light up the stat sheet in order for this team to be good.
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Good point.
I agree. For the PG position this year, efficiency is more important than big overall numbers.
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Whichever PG emerges I expect them to be option #5 in the starting lineup.
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Eh… I saw Vick disappear in too many games last season to say that. If Dotson starts I think he would be the fifth option in terms of scoring, but I think there will be games where he takes over as a distributor/passer/play-maker. Dotson can score too. And Moore is either KU’s best or second best outside shooter. There will be nights when he’s making 3’s and contributes a lot as a scorer. Basically I think KU is too balanced and too deep to call anyone who starts a fifth option. I will say that I think there is a definite option #1, though, and that his name is Dedric Lawson. There’s so much depth and versatility with this KU roster that Self can employ different lineups depending on the situation.
Starting Lineup: Dotson, Grimes, Vick, Dedric, Doke
Other Potential Starting Lineup: Moore, Grimes, KJ, Dedric, Doke
Offensive/End of game Lineup: Dotson, Moore, Grimes, Vick, Dedric
Defense Lineup: Garrett, Grimes, KJ, Dedric, Doke
All-Guard lineup: Dotson, Moore, Grimes, Vick, KJ (Garrett too)
Best/Optimal/Potential Scariest-For-Other-Teams Lineup: Dotson, Grimes, Vick, Dedric, De Sousa
A few comments on these lineups:
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They all have Dedric and Grimes, who I think will be KU’s best players this season. And I think that fact will be reflected in their total minutes per game.
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If Moore starts over Dotson, I think Vick comes off the bench. Moore and Vick are KU’s best outside shooters. If they both start, that doesn’t leave much perimeter shooting coming off the bench. I think there will be times when they are on the court together, of course. But unless another guard emerges as an above-average outside shooter, I think the lineups on the floor will include either Vick or Moore with brief times of overlap. Moore being one of the only proven quality perimeter shooters is also the reason that I think he will get more than 12 minutes per game.
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The optimal lineup is based the one that I think could potentially be the best. There are a lot of ifs here. If De Sousa is eligible and develops. If Dotson develops. If Grimes develops. If Vick can stay engaged in games throughout the season (side note: he reminds me a little bit of a poor man’s Wiggins with a better stroke in this way). If Dedric lives up to the ridiculous expectations that have been placed on him by coaches/fans/writers. If all of that happens I think that this lineup could be devastating on both sides of the ball. And fast. Really, really fast. This is also the reason that I lean more towards starting Dotson than Moore, even though Moore might be the better player at the beginning of the season.
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I think the first starting lineup that I have listed also gives Self the best bench for in-game damage control. If the team isn’t playing defense, Garrett and KJ (and Mitch too) can come into the game. Charlie Moore can come into the game for added shooting. And a deep roster means that anyone who isn’t hustling or giving 100% effort will sit.
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@KirkIsMyHinrich Great post. I love that starting lineup.
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@KirkIsMyHinrich I’m with you on Charlie getting more time. I don’t think they’ll be able to keep him off the court. The feedback from practice this summer has been that no one can keep in front of Charlie because of his quickness. I also wouldn’t think it was a stretch to believe him and Vick lead our team in 3 pointers made, although Grimes could also have something to say about that. The confidence level Charlie exudes is going to go a long way with a young team, imo. My theory is they will be adding so many new components to the team, it will give CM the time on the court to establish himself. I think it will take Dotson time to find his voice as a leader, although he obviously has lots of talent. By the end of the year, Dot should find more and more minutes, but I think for most of the year, it’s going to be the Charlie show.
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I will say, I’m starting to come around on the Charlie train a little bit… Just watching some of his tape today does have me more optimistic than before. I think his only downfall could be his natural instinct to try to score. He needs to be a distributor for this team more than a scorer. He will need to pass up on some shots that he took at Cal. He will need to avoid driving the lane against his man, just because he can, because he gets blocked a lot. That is what caused his high turnover number. He would drive the lane and then get in trouble. He can’t do that here.
However, I did note a few things. His stroke looks pretty dang good. I think in a situation where he is the 5th option and only shooting wide open 3s, we will see him hit them at a .400 clip. He also has an uncanny ability to shake his man and get a great look at the mid-range floater. Something that I think is pretty hard to teach or even execute. Defensively, I still find him to be a bit of a liability. But he was the leading ball swiper his lone season at Cal. If he can hound opposing guards and create some havoc, I really like how he fits on this team.
I’d still prefer he come off the bench because, to me, he fits better with the 2nd unit where he would be more free to create and shoot. I think running him with 4 other guys that can score is a disservice to his natural scoring instincts. My real hope though, is that him and Dotson are basically splitting hairs and that we can run them both about 20 min a game, allowing them to both play all out on both ends of the floor.
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I like your lineups with one tiny edit to the end of game lineup.
I think KU will close with a Dotson or Moore-Grimes-Vick-KJ-Dedric lineup. That lineup gives you offense, defense, shooting, ball handling and rebounding. I just worry that closing with Dotson and Moore makes the lineup too small defensively. With Grimes’ ball handling ability, you don’t have to have a second PG on the floor.
With Vick and KJ as your third and fourth ball handlers, you have plenty of handling on the floor, plus capable shooters at every position. Basically what Villanova threw at teams last year.
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@justanotherfan I went back and forth on KJ or Moore in the end-of-game lineup. My rationale for choosing Moore is the ball-handling and free throw shooting. Also the fact that he spaces the floor better for Dedric because he’s a deep threat. KJ is obviously the better option on the defensive side of the ball because of his length. I don’t really think there is a wrong choice here. It would probably come down to which player is better for the situation based on what team Kansas is playing. Like if it’s West Virginia I would probably go Moore over KJ because so much of their offense is generated by the press. If it’s more of a finesse/offensive/shooting team like, I dunno, North Carolina or something then I might take KJ. Or if it was Duke I would put KJ on Barrett/Reddish.
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Here is a quick video of Vick against Duke in the Elite 8…
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Vick’s athleticism and versatility make him a great matchup against a variety of teams. He can handle being in the middle of a zone or stationed as a shooter on the perimeter. He can guard multiple guys. He can rebound. Vick (and KJ) add an element to this team that a lot of other teams do not have with guys being able to be versatile.
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I like Vick. Always have. He’s had his ups and downs and haven’t we all. Coming back and finishing school will be the best decision of his life when he looks back in 15 years.
In the short term, his athleticism has been underestimated consistently. I think he is the kind of guy that can propel the team to a deep run — again.
For reasons I can’t explain, I have always liked this kid and I wish him all the best this year. It will be a life changer, I think. He should in the NBA after this season.
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Hearing great things about him.
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There is an argument that Vick will be the best player on the team. He’d be my pick right now. We should never underestimate Vick coming back. This is a monumental turn of events. The psychology of “why” he came back, and “how” it played out gives it an even better twist. He could be the conference POY.
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No doubt that Vick coming back makes KU not just deeper but better as well.
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If we win the NC there must be a Vick 30 for 30.
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