Dwindling Big 12 Basketball
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KUSTEVE said:
1- SEC - 22
2- ACC - 19
3- Pac 12 - 17
4- Big Ten - 11
5- Big East - 8
6-Big 12 - 7
I drew the line in your the list to make it easier to see the “Battle for the fourth Super Conference.”
Two below the line will become Mid-majors. Big 12 leads the race to the mid-major position.
When the B10 picks up a couple of cherries from the Big East, it will pop… and that will be the end.
KU needs to get out of this sinking ship at the right time, in the right way.
Much easier said than done.
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This was something we started discussing a few weeks ago when talking about why the Big 12 has less postseason success than other major conferences. I’m glad @KUSTEVE has brought this topic back because it is important to the future of KU hoops and the Big 12 overall.
First, let’s just cut to the chase and admit that the Big 12 needs to add Memphis and Cincinnati to the conference immediately. That gets the group back up to 12 and also introduces some new recruiting territory into the conference footprint.
Next, let’s admit that while the Big 12 has some very good game coaches, the conference lacks any elite level recruiters other than Self. In fact, I would go so far as to say most of the coaches in conference are below average recruiters. That’s a killer. It introduces parity into the conference because the talent level is pretty equal across the board, and it helps the conference look good early in the season because the Big 12 maintains continuity season to season because most schools aren’t losing tons of players early, but when plays need to be made in March, the Big 12 doesn’t often have the players to do that.
Let’s have a look at some NBA mock drafts to see where the talent is:
Big 12 - Jackson, Jarrett Allen and Jawun Evans are the only Big 12 players listed in the first round.
SEC - Fox and Monk from Kentucky are the only SEC players.
Big 10 - Anunoby and Swanigan are the only Big 10 guys.
ACC - We have Jayson Tatum, Johnathan Isaac, Dennis Smith, Justin Jackson, John Collins, Luke Kennard, Tyler Lydon, and Harry Giles. That’s 8 guys.
Pac 12 - Fultz and Ball are anticipated to go 1-2. Markkanen is a top 10 guy. Ike Anigbogu is here, along with Rabb and TJ Leaf. That’s six guys.
Looking back, last year the Big 12 had 2 first rounders, the SEC had 5, the Pac 12 had 4, the ACC had 4 and the Big 10 had 2. Notice a trend?
Big 12 gets less talent in, puts less talent out and as a result, can’t seem to get over the hump in March, while the SEC and ACC consistently bring talent in, which allows their teams to run deep into March even if we believe the Big 12 is superior in some way.
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How many non-UK draft picks does the SEC typically have? Of course this all could change soon, as the SEC has become way more serious about competing in basketball.
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They usually do okay. Arkansas, Florida, LSU and Vanderbilt all have had picks in the last few years. Usually, its a couple from UK, then one or two from other schools in the conference. Last year, for instance, LSU had Simmons and Vandy had a couple guys. The SEC has more take a game over type talents (look at South Carolina and Arkansas from this year). That helps them make runs when those guys get hot. The Big 12 lacks that, which is why it’s hard to make deep postseason runs.
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Let’s keep in mind that of all the major basketball conferences, only the Big 12 and the Big East have 10 teams, all the other have more. ACC 15 teams, Big 10, SEC and A10 14 teams, PAC 12 and American 12 teams.
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Iwundu is a first round pick in most every mock draft and with a good combine Motley can move from borderline to solid first round. CBS has Mason in the first round at #29. Too much variability outside the top 15 to state with certainty what the actual breakdown will be; we will have to wait until the actual draft for that.
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I’m going with consensus. If Iwundu gets in, that probably hurts Mason, Motley and Evans. The Big 12 has four guys that are borderline first/second round picks. Chances are that as the first round dwindles down, all four of those guys don’t get picked. If Evans goes, Mason probably doesn’t. If Mason goes, Evans probably won’t. If Iwundu get picked, that means teams are likely going for more wings, so a guy like Motley falls down the board. If Motley gets selected, that means Iwundu probably sticks on the board because there are better wings out there. The lack of true lottery talent in the conference will probably keep all four of those guys from going in the first round because one moving up almost certainly moves another one of them down.
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I am not sure that any of you have checked out the 2018 mock draft but 5 of our guys are projected to be drafted. Doka could be a first rounder if he stays healthy and he is not even listed.
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@Statmachine We will have NBA type talent at all 5 starting positions for the first time in a really long time. This is a better constructed roster than people realize.
Although, I do get what @KUSTEVE is saying. Problem is and always will be that when UT sucks and can’t even recruit Texas than the Big XII will look weak.
UT is swimming in cash, yet they can’t field a good basketball team. Shaka was a bad hire. With all the money in the world, they couldn’t steal a Sean Miller from Arizona?
UT athletics is a mess. Until they get their shit together the Big XII will suffer. Especially in the next round of TV negotiations.
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@Kcmatt7 I think the talent level at UT is perfectly fine. The fact of the matter they have the talent that SOME posters on this board drool about. Top 100 talent that will stay four years. They have 10 or so 4 star guys on their roster! What more can you ask for?
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Kcmatt7 said:
@Statmachine We will have NBA type talent at all 5 starting positions for the first time in a really long time. This is a better constructed roster than people realize.
Although, I do get what @KUSTEVE is saying. Problem is and always will be that when UT sucks and can’t even recruit Texas than the Big XII will look weak.
UT is swimming in cash, yet they can’t field a good basketball team. Shaka was a bad hire. With all the money in the world, they couldn’t steal a Sean Miller from Arizona?
UT athletics is a mess. Until they get their shit together the Big XII will suffer. Especially in the next round of TV negotiations.
It’s a great roster, with GREAT practice depth because of the transfers.
Yeah UT…I wouldn’t mind if they were better. If losing the conference title a couple times to UT meant the league would improve in general and KU would be better tested for March I’d take that.
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Statmachine said:
@Kcmatt7 I think the talent level at UT is perfectly fine. The fact of the matter they have the talent that SOME posters on this board drool about. Top 100 talent that will stay four years. They have 10 or so 4 star guys on their roster! What more can you ask for?
They could ask for a coach that has a clue. They had 2 NBA players last year which isn’t bad, but no PG.
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@BShark I think their Coach was a good hire BUT they could do better given they have the resources to do so. If Smart doesn’t produce next year he will be looking for another job. Outside of the Blue Blood schools what coach would be willing to take the Coaching Job. Not who would they hire but who would take the job?
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The talent deficiency from Duke to UNC is none.
The talent deficiency from UCLA to Arizona is none.
The talent deficiency from KU to Texas, its a lot. Despite what their recruiting rankings say.
Just go look through the top players that have come out of the state of Texas and gone to Kentucky lately. KU and the Big XII as a conference need UT to defend it’s own recruiting grounds. And they aren’t right now.
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2 summers ago Smart was hired after the 2015 class was pretty much recruited. He retained most of the players on UT’s roster, and even added 2 four star top 100 guys to the roster with Mack and Roach. Last year he landed on of the top 5 star guys in the state of Texas and the other 5 star guy went over seas. He also added Andrew Jones who is testing the NBA waters and was invited to the combine. He is in the running for 2 more 5 star guys and already signed four 4 star guys. I would say if he can make it happen this year on the court with HIS guys that he recruited then the top guys in the state will have a different view of UT. He has only been there 2 years and signed 8 four star guys and a 5 star. I personally think things will come along and on a side note UT is possibly building a new basketball facility.
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@JayHawkFanToo great point. Like advanced metrics for stats, need a top player / conf team stat. Or top picks ratio to total players in each league.
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Ya know, there are two kinds of studs among recruits.
The kind that produce.
And the kind that produce excuses.
If Malik produced excuses staying home at Mississippi State, because didn’t like playing out of position, then he will really be prone to produce excuses at KU. Self makes almost everyone play out o position part, or all of their careers at KU. IMHO, Self is taking a bigger risk on Malik, than he would be taking on a freshman ranked as high as Malik was when he was an incoming freshman. And the reason Self is taking that risk is that he couldn’t sign another highly ranked incoming freshman with Malik’s possible roles, so he took the risk on Malik, and he hoped to offset that risk with working with Malik a year before he had a chance to prove he could produce more than still more excuses.
Cliff Alexander and Diallo were studs that were highly ranked too. But they had millions of excuses why they didn’t produce. It did not help them be producers by coming to KU. And they have been mediocre at best after leaving.
You have to be very careful about assuming that studs produce.
Studs fool us a lot of the time.
Studs “could” produce.
That is the attraction of studs.
But many don’t.
And once they don’t one place, the chances of them producing and living up to expectations at another place is probably even less.
We have, or should have, sharply lower expectations for Malik.
Tarik Black was an exception, not a rule. And even he was not a monster producer for KU.
Malik is a risk until he actually produces something other than the excuses he produced at Mississippi State.
Remember, Malik is different from BenMac.
BenMac was the real deal. He was signed as a Freshman. The only reason he had to set out was transcript issues. The guy could have produced from Day 1.
Malik proved at Mississippi State that he was not as nearly good as his OAD hype.
The question now is: with a year of practice, can he at least produce. We’re not even expecting him to be a TAD. Being a TAD would be a surprise.
KU has to get more real deals that produce–guys like Josh Jackson–and fewer guys that produce excuses.
Malik can definitely help us, same as Tarik Black did help us. Malik can even turn into a TAD and surprise us. But the probability is he will take a couple seasons to be really accomplished, if he CAN stop producing excuses and start producing.
KU needs more real deals to seriously compete for rings.
Give Self three Josh Jacksons and a complement of Malik-grade transfers and he will win you some rings the same way Cal, Roy and Coach K have. Their ring teams have tended to be loaded, relative to the competition. All of their ring teams had more talent than last year’s KU team. Board rats that focus on UConn’s ring team under Ollie are not mastering the obvious; that UConn team was the exception to the rule. Might last year’s KU team have done what UConn did? Under perfect circumstances, yes. But perfect circumstances come along rarely at, at this late point in Self’s career, Self could easily never win another ring if he has to keep competing at such a disadvantage in talent and depth.
The Malik grade transfers without the three real deals mean Self will use smoke and mirrors and find a way to the high 20s or low 30s in the Ws, if he has an OAD have a good season and another player have a career year, but then get overmatched by the Elite Eight, or sometime in the Final Four.
You’ve just got to have so much talent to get to the Final Four and even more to survive and win it.
KU has to get beyond being Tulsa on Steroids.
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@Statmachine Shaka Smart will not be gone if UT struggles next year. Their level of care is pretty low which is why they’ve been trying to build a new arena for about 4 years now and still haven’t found a site last I was aware.
With Tom Herman, UT is all in on restoring their football program and really could not care less about the basketball program right now.
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@jaybate-1.0 I think you are in for a bi surprise. - - ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG
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Shaka watch continues…
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Yeah football needs to improve.
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It will not be a surprise to me, if Malik does well quickly.
It will be a lesser probability than Josh Jackson doing well coming true.
Do you see the distinction?
It’s clear that Self thought there was an opportunity for Malik to be a player still.
It’s clear Malik has talent at KU, same as it was clear he had same at MSU.
So: it won’t be a surprise.
It will be less probable that he produces successfully.
My recurring point is: should Self at KU, an elite major, have to be dealing with such players on such a frequent basis?
What is the problem?
Why can’t he sign enough OAD and 5-star freshmen to keep the cupboard full?
What is stopping him?
Why the anomalous and apparently rising dependence on transfers?
If Malik succeeds, I will be pleased, not surprised.
And I will wonder why Self couldn’t have signed an OAD, or 5-star freshman instead.
Rock Chalk!!
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BShark said:
Yeah football needs to improve.
It’s not so much that you’re wrong…
Consistency of winning at football hasn’t improved for over a century and KU sails happily onward and upward, as a university and as a winning basketball program.
…It’s the way you say it.
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He just signed Billy Preston, a OAD and 5 star recruit…
More and more kids just don’t care where they play, as long as they get what they want.
That’s why a kid like Marcus Garrett has to be appreciated because he actually gives a crap where he’s playing next year and doesn’t care about earning his playing time. We are so lucky to have snagged him before others had a chance.
Newman was supposed to be a OAD and we are extremely lucky to have gotten him 2nd time around.
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5 star transfers have three years college experience, two in the system. 5 star OADs have 9 months in the system. Usually no summer workouts either. So there are some advantages. Team cohesion will be better and hopefully the plays wont be as vanilla as last season incorporating oad Josh.
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I wasn’t even talking about KU football, though that would be nice. @KUSTEVE posted an article about the quality of football in the Big 12. If the Big 12 is to keep going, football needs to improve. Especially Texas and Oklahoma.
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The thing about 5* FR is they typically don’t stick around unless they disappoint relative to expectations. Notable exceptions for kids like Perry who have an NBA deficiency. Give Self mostly 2-4 year 4*s please.
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No, no, you’re talking about the Neo Southwest Conference, not the Big 12/10.
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I didn’t embrace the Transfer U angle at first, but I am warming up to it. 3 3rd year guys inserted into the lineup next year. 3rd year 5 star inserted into the lineup this year. I’ll take those guys over the OADs every time. The last 5 stars that made it to their 3rd year were Perry and Wayne, and that worked out very well for us.
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Also a bit of bird in the hand too. KU is well positioned for 2019 but outside of a few recruits maybe not so much in 2018. Having 4* players on board mitigates the risk. Of course, all you need is a few recruits, so let’s hope the staff closes well.
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It’s interesting to see the Big10 on that list of leagues that are seeing less talent. I think the league is in a down time for coaches. Their most successful coaches of the 2000’s are gone except Izzo. Ryan, Self, Tubby and even Matta seems to have lost his recruiting mojo. I don’t want to include Beihlein on that list because I’ve always thought he wasn’t as good as people thought. Crean sucked, Iowa hasn’t had anyone significant, PSU is a dumpster fire, Rutgers blows, Maryland is ok. But this basketball league that is ‘supposed’ to be dominating the national scene hasn’t won a title since 2000. Sure there’s been lots of teams close, interesting at least to note that Illinois in 05, Michigan in 13 and Wiscy in 15 all were very close but in my view got officiated away from beating ACC teams.
But the talent drop off is real in the Big10. It’s no longer the league of superstars. MSU has kept that up a little bit of course, but really no else has. There’s still good to nearly great teams. But it’s a league that is decidedly trending downward.
But for me it all comes down to KU. OUR talent is still there. OUR amazing coach is still there. OUR chance to win it all every year is still there, and believe me WE will win it again. We’ve been very close the past several years. Led the nations regular season rankings and have been top seeded seemingly every year since we won it all in 2008.
Now could our league be better which might sharpen us for the dance? Maybe. But seemingly SEC teams are in the final 4 every year, and their league doesn’t offer up nightly challenges to sharpen them.
But mark it down, save this post, bookmark it @approxinfinity because I want my props. None of this discussion will matter when KU wins another championship the next year or two. I’m already planning on the celebration.
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@jaybate-1.0 There is a point you brought up which I agree. I guess the way I come across just hits wrong with people. Guess my way isn’t as -can’t even think of a phrase that fits But I agree and have brought it up - -only to pretty much get laced by a few.
My point also my question is pretty much like you said WHY are we missing on so many OAD’S - -5 star? - - what’s wrong? - -why we not able to close?
I’ve had my on theories - -what’s the word? synopsis I’m sure that’s not how it’s spelled - -but know the meaning - - ’ it’s a educated guess" - - Sometimes I think we may get to feeling to good about ourselves on a player and where we stand - -thinking after we have hit him hard and are convinced it’s done he is coming - -then we lose contact fail to stay in touch, - -main while back at the Ranch as is the case in any sport until that name is on the line he remains open bait to the other schools still hounding him, throwing any kind of negative garbage about us to him. - -Him hearing from them - NOTHING from us. hmmmm what’s going on he thinking - why am I not hearing form these guys any more?
I feel sometimes we have multi scholarships and we end up maybe focusing TO MUCH in one a particular player losing sight of another which posses the same athletic ability , so we zero in on the one and in the main time we lose out on the other because he is receving better info and whatever from others - -then the kicker we lose out on the one we have put ALL our focus on. - -So now were screwed we lost BOTH. - Which in turn puts us in a scramble mode and hence the transfers - -de- commits - -& graduate transfers at the last. seems like the last two - -three years this is starting to become an re- occurring scenario.
I just feel that on ALOT of these guys we are JUST NOT FINISHING - -not closing out, getting them to make that commit - -sign early. You got the door open - -your in the house - -your on the couch, close the deal - -stay on these kids - -keep the pressure on, these days you just have to, as competitive as the College recruiting is these days - you blink - -and BAM. - -Not closing, that’s what my gut tell me - -not finishing.
You can come up with all kinds of theories as to why. Shoe companies - - friends - -to stiff of .competition but the bottom line is like you say yes we have missed on quite a few OAD’S. - got a couple but compared with Duke - -UK - - ummm not so much.
I’m sorry but I will go to my death bed and be pushing up lilly’s before you convince me that either one of those schools are that much better then KU. - - People can say OH well they want to go there because of tradition National Championships. - Well HOW did they get those championships in the first place? - -well I’ll tell you where it started - -by recruiting the 5 star to those programs - -being able to close. - I dunno just frustrates me so with that I for sure agree wonder why. - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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KUSTEVE said:
I didn’t embrace the Transfer U angle at first, but I am warming up to it. 3 3rd year guys inserted into the lineup next year. 3rd year 5 star inserted into the lineup this year. I’ll take those guys over the OADs every time. The last 5 stars that made it to their 3rd year were Perry and Wayne, and that worked out very well for us.
Bingo!
Cunliffe- 2nd yr 4 star as well.
And the next year, adding 43ppg, 20 rbg, 9 apg, 3 spg, 2.5 bpg among the 3 sit-outs. All a year to bond and practice together on the practice squad… Fans will get over this quickly once they see them all in uniform
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it’s easy to remember the misses and forget the one’s we do get for granted… We are always going to miss on guys, maybe even some we should get. This is 2017 where many of these top kids don’t care about what school they attend anymore
Senior Graham is back - that scared the top PG’s away.
Newman- everyone knows Malik, nobody wanted to compete for his spot.
Vick/Svi/Cunliffe- We got Cunliffe Mid-Semester luckily as insurance for Svi’s pending decision (Sam- Top 40ish kid out of HS). Vick has been a long-range NBA prospect since he step foot on campus. Weren’t getting a OAD wing this cycle with those guys on the roster.
PF- We missed here (Ayton obviously), but went with plan B - OAD Billy Preston… We closed on him.
C- Doke- Everybody knows Doke couldn’t leave so a high ranked C was never going to happen.
Meanwhile we got Garrett, a player so many programs never even saw. Ends up Texas Player of the Year, Top 40ish prospect on most boards. That’s called stealing right there…
Whitman will be solid here, mature game, can score on the block. What’s not to like about a polished post player coming here?
The point is, other then PF we didn’t have a sure-fire open starting spot for these OAD kids. And we still ended up with a OAD at the position anyway. While we missed and the misses are highly public one’s, we still have a great roster lined up for next season…
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BeddieKU23 said:
KUSTEVE said:
I didn’t embrace the Transfer U angle at first, but I am warming up to it. 3 3rd year guys inserted into the lineup next year. 3rd year 5 star inserted into the lineup this year. I’ll take those guys over the OADs every time. The last 5 stars that made it to their 3rd year were Perry and Wayne, and that worked out very well for us.
Bingo!
Cunliffe- 2nd yr 4 star as well.
And the next year, adding 43ppg, 20 rbg, 9 apg, 3 spg, 2.5 bpg among the 3 sit-outs. All a year to bond and practice together on the practice squad… Fans will get over this quickly once they see them all in uniform
What was Self going to do, not fill the roster with talent after missing a few targets?
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@BShark I would classify Dedric as a 5 star, although he was ranked as a 4 star originally.
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KUSTEVE said:
@BShark I would classify Dedric as a 5 star, although he was ranked as a 4 star originally.
In terms of his impact definitely. He will likely be more productive than any 2018 post KU could realistically add.
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BShark said:
KUSTEVE said:
@BShark I would classify Dedric as a 5 star, although he was ranked as a 4 star originally.
In terms of his impact definitely. He will likely be more productive than any 2018 post KU could realistically add.
I think we can say that’s a fact Jack. Who knows the last time a Elite program was able to gain a 20 & 10 guy with NBA potential. It might even be true to say its never happened before. Outside of Bagley being some unguard-able phenom in College, your right KU wasn’t going to land someone who could make the impact Dedric will
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Bagley is basically unguardable, but I’ll believe KU is in it if he signs with KU. Arizona or UK seems to be the word.
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In HS yes, but in College its always different. He does look like he will be a man among-st boys wherever he plays. Definitely seems like AZ or Kentucky will be his destination
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True we can’t be 100% on how he will translate. I’d rather have him than not though.
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@jaybate-1-0 Could it be that the embargo is Self-inflicted? Perhaps Bill is fed up with the the whole sordid system and kissing the heiny’s of prima-Donna 17-18 year old OADs. He wants tough guys who are not afraid to compete, work hard, and earn what they get. Maybe he would rather have 2nd or 3rd year guys with some muscle, experience, and time spent into the toughening box who will come in and eat nails for him versus OADs who are protecting the merch and operating at 80% capacity. I want Frank’s and Perry’s and vick’s. Not Selby, Alexander, Oubre, and , yes Wiggins.
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@Fightsongwriter Self loved wiggs, oubre, embiid and josh. Throw in ben Mac. I’m sure doke will be in that group.
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I’m willing to say it’s complicated and there may be several drivers, but…
If it were Self-inflicted, why would they spend so much time recruiting guys they don’t want?
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Did any one else see where Mohamed Bamba committed to UT?
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@wissox Good post! It reminds me also of some good fortune also needed. Imagine if we were playing Oregon with Udoka giving us 15-20min in that game? What if Bragg never fell thru the floor this season? We had no post game, other than a smoke & mirrors version (interpret: carefully orchestrated, what we could and could not do with Lucas). But we got exposed in the Dance. Self’s greatness got us that far, but a fundamentally flawed team will get exposed in the Dance, most of the time.
2008 Jayhawks had no weaknesses. But still almost got felled by a bad shooting night vs Davidson. Or even to Memphis.
2012 had no depth, and were slow starting team, comeback kids, and that caught up with them. They likely would have beat any other team than KY.
My biggest focus is trying to understand where each KU team is at as they head into the big Dance. We have to be honest with ourselves about our own team, all the while of course still hoping that we get some luck and some breaks to go all the way and win it all, regardless of what a team’s defects may be in any given year. Because we are a 1- or 2-seed almost every year, I gotta think we will get our lucky run, just about any year now…!
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@Statmachine We definitely did! I hope Shaka can keep the studs rolling through. Big XII needs him to.
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Shaka still has a lot to prove in the conference. So a 1yr freshman center leaves TX for the pros, now to be replaced with another 1yr freshman center. How has balance changed?
