@JayHawkFanToo I agree; models are as good as the assumptions they are based on. The hardest part of building a model, according to an old modeling prof of mine, is defining your assumptions and objectives, and making the assumptions explicit. The rest is trivial.
If you disagree with the model output, then you need to go back and look at the assumptions it was built on. I haven’t done that, but clearly Pomeroy has weighted something incorrectly. His luck metric shows how far off he is. We don’t like his model output because his projections for KU are way off. He’s clearly made some false assumptions.