Pre Season Stat Projections
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@kjayhawks Doke averaged 7 rebounds in 20 mpg last season, why wouldn’t he be able to average at least 8 rpg with the increased minutes this projection has for him this season? I could easily see him at 8 or 9 rpg if he plays the 26-27 mpg this projection has for him.
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There’s video of Doke working out and he was pretty fit looking. I think he’ll be able to play more minutes at a speed we’ve never seen from him. No more baby fat!
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Here’s what the minutes break down for that projections looks like as minutes per game.
Devon Dotson projects out to 33-34 mpg
Marcus Garrett projects out to 30-31 mpg
Ochai Agbaji projects out to 28-29 mpg
Isaiah Moss projects out to 28 mpg
Udoka Azubuike projects out 26-27 mpg
Silvio DeSousa projects out to 22-23 mpg
David McCormack projects out to 12 mpg
Jalen Wilson projects out to 9-10 mpg
Tristan Enaruna projects out to 5-6 mpg
Christian Braun projects out to 3-4 mpg
Not listed are Mitch Lightfoot, Issac McBride, and DaJuan Harris since it only projects out a top 10. McBride is the most surprising of those 3 being left off to me because of the redshirt talk around Lightfoot and Harris not being eligible yet.
The one player who I think the mpg is off on is David McCormack. I think 12 mpg is quite low for him as I would expect him to be in the 17-18 mpg range mainly at the expense of Tristan Enaruna on this list. I think Enaruna averages under 5 mpg probably in the 3-4 mpg range.
I agree with others about Marcus Garrett being the second leading scorer this season. I don’t see that happening. I can see him increasing his scoring over last season, but I don’t see him bumping it up 6 ppg this season. In order to have any chance at that, there would have to be significant improvements to his shooting. I don’t think 4 double digit scorers is a bad prediction, I just don’t see Garrett being one of those 4. I would have Doke as the second leading scorer, Agbaji third, Moss fourth, and then Garrett fifth.
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Interesting projections.
Marcus will not be the 2nd leading scorer, may not even be the 4th. If he is we should wonder whether someone stole his body.
Unless McBride can’t defend or just doesn’t have the coaches trust he should have a 5-8 mpg projection. I get the reasoning he wasn’t included but there was a path for minutes for Issac that I don’t see for Braun or Enaruna.
Moss has never played 28 mpg in his career. Seems like an ambitious projection if you ask me. Coming in late he’s got some adjustments to make and chemistry to build that he’s missed out on. I don’t think 28 is realistic unless it all clicks
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Big Dave…20+. Moss…25. Braun is the mystery meat in all this. Ball handling skills, passing skills, excellent shooting skills. No doubt defensively he has a long way to go. Maybe he redshirts…maybe he only gets two minutes at the end of games off the bench. Maybe we have a night where Moss is 0 for 8 , and he comes in, and hits an important 3. The guys this summer keep raving how tough he is, so maybe he’s not going to be overwhelmed as much as we’re thinking.
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KUSTEVE said:
They have 4 starters averaging double figures, with Marcus having the 2nd most minutes on the team, and the 2nd highest scoring average. That will send a few of you into orbit…lol.
Naw, not quite an orbit, Lol… I don’t see Garrett being our second leading scorer, a chance at number two in minutes (can play three and if in a bigtime pinch, his freshman year(?), even four positions - but not our second leading scorer. If he is number two in scoring me thinks our team will not be living up to our potential - he isn’t a scorer, he’s a passer and defender.
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KUSTEVE said:
Big Dave…20+. Moss…25. Braun is the mystery meat in all this. Ball handling skills, passing skills, excellent shooting skills. No doubt defensively he has a long way to go. Maybe he redshirts…maybe he only gets two minutes at the end of games off the bench. Maybe we have a night where Moss is 0 for 8 , and he comes in, and hits an important 3. The guys this summer keep raving how tough he is, so maybe he’s not going to be overwhelmed as much as we’re thinking.
Don’t get me started on Braun again, will have to break out the Gordon Hayward comparisons.
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If these projections are what we actually get we could be in some trouble.
If we are looking to Garrett as our #2 option, our offense will likely be fairly inefficient. Our defense could be very stout, but relying on a guy that’s not a natural or efficient scorer, our defense had better be elite, because we will need to win some 65-60 type games.
With Doke, you also have to account for some foul trouble, and being out of the games late. While he may be in better shape, he probably won’t play much in the last 4 minutes of any game, and will probably miss time in other games due to foul trouble. 26-27 minutes per game for Doke seems a bit heavy to me. I would bet he’s under 25. That shouldn’t hurt this team though, because we have a lot of front court depth.
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justanotherfan said:
If these projections are what we actually get we could be in some trouble.
If we are looking to Garrett as our #2 option, our offense will likely be fairly inefficient. Our defense could be very stout, but relying on a guy that’s not a natural or efficient scorer, our defense had better be elite, because we will need to win some 65-60 type games.
With Doke, you also have to account for some foul trouble, and being out of the games late. While he may be in better shape, he probably won’t play much in the last 4 minutes of any game, and will probably miss time in other games due to foul trouble. 26-27 minutes per game for Doke seems a bit heavy to me. I would bet he’s under 25. That shouldn’t hurt this team though, because we have a lot of front court depth.
17-18 seasons he was able to get to almost 24 MPG.
I think it’s pretty likely we see him play a few minutes more than that per game if he’s in shape to do it.
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@Marco The team is simply raving about him. i don’t know if that translates to playing time, but it’s a good sign nonetheless.
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The only way Doke plays over 24 mpg is if he stays out of foul trouble. That’s something he’s never proven he can do.
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RockChalkinTexas said:
https://twitter.com/A_Hudy/status/1154807293516627968/video/1
Doke sure looks slimmer
Dam - - ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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It seems the controversy in the article is Garrett’s PPG. I think he has that potential as a slasher. Last year was so whacky that he just never could fill a role that matched his skill sets. He of course is quite athletic and has shown ability to get to the rim. I’m really hoping Doke can lead the team in scoring and DDot is an assist machine with a nice scoring average to go with it. That means we’re humming along offensively.
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I can see Marcus being a few points less. I can see Doke’s points being a few higher. This, that or the other. I’m most interested in what our opponent’s points are.
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@KUSTEVE It will be damn hard in my opinion to keep Braun from getting some playing time - the guy can ball. The more that I hear about how all of the other players are singing his praises and have even heard coach giving him some love I say he is going to get minutes and is going to produce. And let’s not forget, the kid might still be growing. How big is he going to be by his junior, senior year?
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@Marco He could end up being 6’9", and with those ball handling and shooting skills, the sky is the limit. Plus, I think having him and his mom on board might be helping with these other MoKan players. He seems to be very popular with the other guys.
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@KUSTEVE Either that or he has one very good looking mom.
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Enaruna has played well for the Netherlands at the FIBA U18 Championships. Averaging 19ppg in Group Play. Shooting needs some work. 42% shooting, 15.4% from 3-point range
Game 1: Spain 98, Netherlands 65 • Enaruna played 33 minutes and scored 16 points on 7-of-16 shooting from the floor. He was 1-of-4 from 3-point range and added 7 rebounds, 2 blocks and an assist.
Game 2: Netherlands 98, Croatia 63 • In 32 minutes of the blowout victory, Enaruna exploded for 29 points on 12-of-23 shooting from the floor. He easily could have topped 30 points but shot just 1-of-6 from 3-point range despite being red hot everywhere else. He added 4 rebounds, 3 steals, 2 blocks and 2 assists in the easy victory.
Game 3: Finland 59, Netherlands 53 • In a tourney-high 35 minutes on Monday, Enaruna could not find his offense in a six-point loss to Finland that cost the Dutch in terms of seeding in the Round of 16. He finished 4-of-16 from the floor and 0-of-3 from 3-point range in the loss. Doing his best to make up for the off shooting night, Enaruna ripped down 13 rebounds and dished 3 assists while swiping 2 steals.
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Talk about Enaruna, Braun, Wilson, McBride – it seems apparent that we might just strike gold this season with one of these guys. Meaning, the odds of one of them being a major player quicker than expected is pretty good. Not sure who I’d bet on at this point. I think McBride has the easiest path to playing time, though.
But the nice thing is that it is really likely that we will not need any one of them to be “gold” this season to win a national championship. This is going to be a good season … need a cool “MF” patch to remember our lost friend.
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HighEliteMajor said:
Talk about Enaruna, Braun, Wilson, McBride – it seems apparent that we might just strike gold this season with one of these guys. Meaning, the odds of one of them being a major player quicker than expected is pretty good. Not sure who I’d bet on at this point. I think McBride has the easiest path to playing time, though.
But the nice thing is that it is really likely that we will not need any one of them to be “gold” this season to win a national championship. This is going to be a good season … need a cool “MF” patch to remember our lost friend.
I’m most hopeful about Enaruna. He’s just so athletic. But if I were putting money on it, I’d say Wilson and McBride end up getting more run than him and Braun.
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Are we doing MF patches? I hope so. Maybe we need to send a hint to the AD.
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Enaruna’s team was eliminated so he’ll be in Lawrence in a few weeks when they come back from their break.
Tritan had 21 points, 13 rebounds, 3/6 from 3 and 2 blocks in the losing effort.
He did not shoot the ball very efficiently during the 4 games including some Charlie Moore like FG % from 2, 3 and the FT line…
He finished averaging near a double double 19.8 ppg and 9.3 boards. Tons of long range potential with him. Can’t wait to see how Self uses him
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@BeddieKU23 Svi had similar numbers in his overseas trips if I recall correctly. Part of it is just being the best player on your team and forcing shots because your teammates suck
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BeddieKU23 said:
Enaruna’s team was eliminated so he’ll be in Lawrence in a few weeks when they come back from their break.
Tritan had 21 points, 13 rebounds, 3/6 from 3 and 2 blocks in the losing effort.
He did not shoot the ball very efficiently during the 4 games including some Charlie Moore like FG % from 2, 3 and the FT line…
He finished averaging near a double double 19.8 ppg and 9.3 boards. Tons of long range potential with him. Can’t wait to see how Self uses him
Charlie was the “volume scorer” without the “scorer” part … I wonder at what point coach Self thought to himself, “what was I thinking?”
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HighEliteMajor said:
BeddieKU23 said:
Enaruna’s team was eliminated so he’ll be in Lawrence in a few weeks when they come back from their break.
Tritan had 21 points, 13 rebounds, 3/6 from 3 and 2 blocks in the losing effort.
He did not shoot the ball very efficiently during the 4 games including some Charlie Moore like FG % from 2, 3 and the FT line…
He finished averaging near a double double 19.8 ppg and 9.3 boards. Tons of long range potential with him. Can’t wait to see how Self uses him
Charlie was the “volume scorer” without the “scorer” part … I wonder at what point coach Self thought to himself, “what was I thinking?”
If that moment didn’t occur before the season started last year, oh boy. It seems like Charlie had a lot going on off-the-court that may have impacted him some. Whatever ale’d him it was hard to watch.
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I definitely thought of Svi from years back when he played in the same tournament. Tristan just turned 18 as well and was listed at 6’8 by his home team. Tristan didn’t have any help and yes he was forced to take on a big role, a role he didn’t even have in HS in Utah. Will be interesting to see how he develops. The potential is off the charts
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@drgnslayr If the teams don’t recognize Max significantly this season - I will change my user name (and loyalty) to nuleafwildcat.
Bill Snyder got a stadium and a highway named after him and, although he engineered a major turnaround in Manhattan, he is NOTHING compared to what Max Falkenstein has done for KU.
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@BeddieKU23 It was the New Mexico St. game for me at the Sprint Center with Moore. That’s was my “moment” of clarity.
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To be honest, I’m expecting some national recognition for Max, too.
For one, I know the Big 12 will recognize his departure.
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BeddieKU23 said:
HighEliteMajor said:
BeddieKU23 said:
Enaruna’s team was eliminated so he’ll be in Lawrence in a few weeks when they come back from their break.
Tritan had 21 points, 13 rebounds, 3/6 from 3 and 2 blocks in the losing effort.
He did not shoot the ball very efficiently during the 4 games including some Charlie Moore like FG % from 2, 3 and the FT line…
He finished averaging near a double double 19.8 ppg and 9.3 boards. Tons of long range potential with him. Can’t wait to see how Self uses him
Charlie was the “volume scorer” without the “scorer” part … I wonder at what point coach Self thought to himself, “what was I thinking?”
If that moment didn’t occur before the season started last year, oh boy. It seems like Charlie had a lot going on off-the-court that may have impacted him some. Whatever ale’d him it was hard to watch.
I feel bad for talking bad about Chuck knowing that, now!
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What was Chuck dealing with?
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Crimsonorblue22 said:
BeddieKU23 said:
HighEliteMajor said:
BeddieKU23 said:
Enaruna’s team was eliminated so he’ll be in Lawrence in a few weeks when they come back from their break.
Tritan had 21 points, 13 rebounds, 3/6 from 3 and 2 blocks in the losing effort.
He did not shoot the ball very efficiently during the 4 games including some Charlie Moore like FG % from 2, 3 and the FT line…
He finished averaging near a double double 19.8 ppg and 9.3 boards. Tons of long range potential with him. Can’t wait to see how Self uses him
Charlie was the “volume scorer” without the “scorer” part … I wonder at what point coach Self thought to himself, “what was I thinking?”
If that moment didn’t occur before the season started last year, oh boy. It seems like Charlie had a lot going on off-the-court that may have impacted him some. Whatever ale’d him it was hard to watch.
I feel bad for talking bad about Chuck knowing that, now!
It happens. I’m guilty as well. We want everyone who wears the Jersey to be good. Charlie wasn’t good and possibly the worst rotation player Self has had under his watch. I wish him the best going forward and I hope his personal life improves so he can have an impact at Depaul
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I’m glad you can even remember the game. I’m trying to remember which one it was for me but I know it was one where he took multiple shots in a 1 minute span where he didn’t even look at the hoop before. Those were common so its hard to pinpoint which game it was
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rockchalkwyo said:
What was Chuck dealing with?
I believe his dad has cancer
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@FarmerJayhawk oh I see. That is very sad. Thanks
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BeddieKU23 said:
I’m glad you can even remember the game. I’m trying to remember which one it was for me but I know it was one where he took multiple shots in a 1 minute span where he didn’t even look at the hoop before. Those were common so its hard to pinpoint which game it was
There was one game where he literally shot a 25 footer 3 seconds after he entered the game. The new Self though didn’t yank him or flop around. I always (kind of fondly, kind of not) remember when Anrio Adams got in the game, was all excited, caught the in bounds pass, dribbled it off his foot, out of bounds. Maybe less than 3 seconds and done. Hook and out. Ah, those were the days.
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HighEliteMajor said:
BeddieKU23 said:
I’m glad you can even remember the game. I’m trying to remember which one it was for me but I know it was one where he took multiple shots in a 1 minute span where he didn’t even look at the hoop before. Those were common so its hard to pinpoint which game it was
There was one game where he literally shot a 25 footer 3 seconds after he entered the game. The new Self though didn’t yank him or flop around. I always (kind of fondly, kind of not) remember when Anrio Adams got in the game, was all excited, caught the in bounds pass, dribbled it off his foot, out of bounds. Maybe less than 3 seconds and done. Hook and out. Ah, those were the days.
And crap, I didn’t know Moore’s dad had cancer. Certainly a reasonable cause for distraction.
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Kcmatt7 said:
@BeddieKU23 Svi had similar numbers in his overseas trips if I recall correctly. Part of it is just being the best player on your team and forcing shots because your teammates suck
Disclaimer: I have done zero research on this.
It’s possible that Enaruna is the only potential higher level pro prospect on that roster.
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@BeddieKU23 OMG!!!
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I just don’t see how you can keep an athlete like that on the bench…
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Kcmatt7 said:
I just don’t see how you can keep an athlete like that on the bench…
Enaruna can’t make a shot at this point, that’s why he’s rated as low as he was. He’s a development guy. He appears to have good form on his shot so it appears like it’s something that can be developed, it’s just not developed yet
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Texas Hawk 10 said:
Kcmatt7 said:
I just don’t see how you can keep an athlete like that on the bench…
Enaruna can’t make a shot at this point, that’s why he’s rated as low as he was. He’s a development guy. He appears to have good form on his shot so it appears like it’s something that can be developed, it’s just not developed yet
I was going to more or less post this. Dude can’t shoot, can do just about everything else. Could end up an amazing player later on or wash out, too soon to tell.
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We say this, full well knowing Garrett is going to start lol
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@Kcmatt7 As I have been saying for a while. Oh, he’s going to play no doubt! How much tbd, but it’ll be difficult to not give him atleast 10 mpg.
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How was Enaruna ever projected as a “stretch-4” when he cannot, by definition, stretch since he is a below average shooter?
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Tristan is 17, right? Since shooting is a skill, he could develop that skill, right?
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@justanotherfan because he’s not afraid to shoot. Hopefully those percentages can be coached up.
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KUSTEVE said:
Tristan is 17, right? Since shooting is a skill, he could develop that skill, right?
Absolutely, since he recently switched from shooting left handed to right handed improvement over time should be expected. His ambidextrous ways will surprise fans.
I have no concerns about his shooting touch in time. He can make perimeter shots, its not his primary skill at the moment but that’s not what we need out of him either. There have been events where Tristan has shot the ball well with consistency from the perimeter and games he struggled. I remember Svi struggling years back in the summer when he was forced to be the main facilitator of offense
