MSU KU Predictions
-
justanotherfan said:
Offensively, KU needs to use Doke as a third or fourth option, not a primary or secondary option.
Doke just isn’t a skilled enough passer to hurt teams when they double him. Dedric is much better in that capacity. Offensively, the pecking order should be D.Lawson, then Grimes, Vick, PG X (Moore or Dotson), Doke, K.Lawson, Garrett, Big Man X (Silvio, Big Dave, Mitch). KU is much more dangerous that way.
As for MSU, I say KU by 9, pulling away late 68-59.
Doke will serve his purpose. He is too efficient to cut him out of the offense. He scores at a rate better than a team hitting 50% of their 3 pointers can match. As ugly as it looks sometimes, the ball finds it’s way into the basket at the highest rate in all of NCAA D1 basketball. I don’t think we should play through him the entire time he’s out there, but he needs the ball.
I think the fact that teams HAVE to double him every time he gets the ball lends to the fact that he is a dominant post player. He will improve passing out of the double-team like he did as the year wore on last season. He needs to get better at realizing when it comes sooner, but I have no doubt that he will.
Of course we should play through Dedric all season long as the number one option. But I do think if Doke can start reading the double team better that playing through him will open up easy shots for others.
Two exhibition games in and it’s like everyone forgot Doke just had a season where he shot 77% from the field lol. (and better than that in Conference play)
I’d take what Doke did against Washburn every single night. His per 40 was like 40 points, 13 rebounds, 4 blocks and 6 assists lol.
-
I’m not saying don’t ever give Doke the ball. That would be crazy. But I think he can be even more efficient if he isn’t posting up much and is instead catching on dives to the basket, or lobs and put backs. Those are plays where the other team can’t double him without completely breaking down their defensive integrity.
Doke in the post is easy to double because he’s stationary. On the move, particularly if you have to also account for Dedric in the post, Doke as a dive cutter is basically either a bucket or a foul every time. You can’t double him on the move, you can’t leave Dedric and Dedric one on one against most anyone is trouble for the other team.
In some ways this KU offense could look like the Chiefs offense this year. It just stretches you so many different ways that you are bound to get hurt no matter what you do because you have to help in so many different spots.
-
Agree with @Kcmatt7 Doke will figure it out. The game seems to even out for him when he plays guys his size. I would like to see what happens when this team develops chemistry on the court and we run plays specifically to get certain results. The emphasis for Doke should always be on getting him easy baskets. Putting him in situations where he’s going to be doubled is poor awareness.
Good Teams will try and double Lawson so its a good thing he has such a versatile game and good passing ability. Doke will have a role on this team and I see it happening in game 1
-
Agree with Doke being a big part of the offense, especially if he has improved his free throws. Feeding the post and passing out of the post are two things this team really needs to work on.
-
KirkIsMyHinrich said:
Agree with Doke being a big part of the offense, especially if he has improved his free throws. Feeding the post and passing out of the post are two things this team really needs to work on.
Post entry passing has been abysmal, but it’s also November thankfully.
-
@Kcmatt7 - yup. Looks like their first team did pretty well, though against a class opponent. Should be a great game!
-
Not a prediction, but just a little info from the Mich St exi with N Mich:
Starters:
44 Nick Ward, JR, 6’9" F, 24 pts., 8/12 and 9 RBS.
5 Cassius Winston, JR, 6’1" G, 13 pts., 6/8 and 7 assists
1 Joshua Langford, JR, 6’5" G, 12 pts., 2/8
20 Matt McQuaid, SR, 6’5" G, 8 pts., 3/6 and 2/4 on 3s
25 Kenny Goins, SR, 6’7" F, 0 pts. and 8 RBS.
Bench:
30 Marcus Bingham, FR, 6’11" F, 12 pts. in 9 min
23 Xavier Tillman, SO, 6’8" F. 7 pts.
Coach Fred Hoiberg’s son, Jack is a RS Fr.
A lot of experience on the Spartans. The freshman Bingham will likely be called into action to deal with our front line. Let’s get it on.
-
As usual, this game will come down to defense, rebounding and turnovers. Win those battles and we will be fine. Get Dok and Dedric established early, good entry passes from the guards and knocking down some timely threes are necessary for a win here.
-
Who is our 2nd best player/Scorer? Dedric + rotating #2’s? or Dedric + ?
I think we have a ton of 3’s and 4’s with Doke being Doke.
Once someone grabs the 2 slot I will feel better. But we may be a team with a 1 and lots of 3 and 4 types.
Note- not by position but by scoring/offensive priority.
And of course I am hopeful we will average less than 20 some turnovers.
Who blossoms in Jan/Feb?
-
Vick is going to be the second “go to” scorer.
-
I didn’t see the exhibitions, but I don’t put a lot of weight to them anyway. I’ll say we win in a close game. Reason: our effort will be better against tough competition and we will actually run some plays. Self will also tighten up the rotation.
-
I think this game could go either way, I don’t see a blow out happening. It will be interesting to see who starts at the guard spots for us. I honestly think the offense looked better with Moore and Garrett in there. Grimes has yet to impress me, I believe Dotson is better at getting to the hole and finishing at this point. I think losing SDS will hurt us early in the year if Doke and/Dedric get into foul trouble. Mitch is hustling machine that we all love and David has a ton of upside but the way SDS was playing at the end of last season he would be getting a fair share of those minutes. This will be a hard year to Self to get the rotation down to the 8 he likes, it end up being 9 most nights. I’m wait for KJ to show up to one of these days, I haven’t been real impressed with him as well for a guy that averaged in double figures at Memphis. I think MSUs veteran guards could give our young guys a fit at times but I think Doke and Dedric are just too much in the end. KU 74 MSU 69, it will be weird watching us not play small ball and not having to score at least in the 80s to win like the past 3 or 4 years.
-
I’m going with -
KU 83 Duke 69
Duke wants us so bad they are going to have their staff attorneys bring it to district court and bump out MSU and replace them.
-
I see what you did…I like it.
-
70-45 KU
-
Kansas 61 MSU 59
-
wissox said:
Kansas 61 MSU 59
This would be about right for a Self Izzo game.
-
We’re favored by 5 1/2. Tucky is favored by 1 over dook.
-
@KUSTEVE That Dook, UK game will be interesting. Zion is being billed as god himself at this point but UK actually has some experience for a change.
-
Do you think ESPN roles out a Zion tracker in game 1? Or wait a few?
Maybe a dunk tracker?
Does he have his own channel yet? Reality TV show on Facebook?
-
5 1/2 seems like a lot and I don’t think its very accurate
Hopefully we show up with effort, toughness and make shots. Everything else will work itself out
-
To ESPN, Zion is this year’s version of Trae Young. They will build him up and then spit him out.
-
JayHawkFanToo said:
To ESPN, Zion is this year’s version of Trae Young. They will build him up and then spit him out.
Yup and they won’t even build up the best player on Duke’s team.
Oh well, I think Zion is used to it though, as opposed to Young who didn’t have the personality or brand to handle all that comes with daily media coverage.
-
Read where , the Championship has been continued through 2022. with being played in Chicago - – Indiana - -Chicago - -& NY.
KU - Duke in NY – 2019 - - KU - Kentucky in Chicago 2020 - - -KU- - Michigan St - 2021- - -KU - Duke in Indiana 2022
Glad to see it’s being continued. - -ROCK cHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
-
Key to the game: Do not ever, ever, leave #20 open. NO help D
-
@BeddieKU23 Or Winston for that matter.
-
BShark said:
@BeddieKU23 Or Winston for that matter.
I’d assume since he’s the PG we’ll guard him. But McQuaid has one job and he always does it well against KU
-
@BeddieKU23 It’s basically all McQuaid does well. Not a rebounder, not a guy that you ask to make plays and is maybe average on defense.
-
BShark said:
@BeddieKU23 It’s basically all McQuaid does well. Not a rebounder, not a guy that you ask to make plays and is maybe average on defense.
Yup, he’s exactly as advertised. He’s a just a pain in the butt for KU. I know we read scouting report but literally guys should know don’t even leave him he’s not going anywhere
-
So I would expect Michigan St has around an 9 man rotation. I haven’t dived into their exhibitions or seen what they expect starts/plays so I’m going by memory.
Starting 5:
PG- Winston Jr
SG- McQuaid, Sr
SF- Langford, Jr
PF- Tillman, So
C- Ward, Jr
Rotation, Goins, Sr PF, Bingham Jr, FR, PF/C, Loyer, FR, PG, Brown/Henry, FR/FR, SF’s.
Outside of Goins they will have freshman in the rotation off the bench. Bingham has a lot of upside but is likely to be flashes for a while. Loyer will be a solid PG. KU has a big advantage if we can get any of their starters in foul trouble and they have to rely on different combinations against us. I expect a majority of the offense for Michigan St to revolve around Ward then Winston/Langford. KU just has to contain them from having 50+ as a trio and we’ll be in good shape
-
Talking to MSU fans, they seem to have absolutely no confidence in their backcourt outside of Cassius Winston. They think their advantage will be in the frontcourt.
Nick Ward vs Doke honestly feels like a wash to me. Their stat-lines from last season are pretty much identical and Doke is 2 or 3 inches taller and 30-40 pounds larger. Nick Ward doesn’t shoot 3’s. Neither does Xavier Tillman, who is 6’8, 245.
Dedric is going to have a huge matchup advantage over Goins or Tillman (whichever one starts).
The matchup that scares me the most is Winston vs whoever KU throws at him. I feel like it would be worth starting Marcus Garrett at the point in this game just to put some size and experience on Winston.
-
@BeddieKU23 This looks right. All the Michigan St fans seem pretty down on Goins so I wouldn’t be surprised if Tillman started. Bingham Jr. only got 9 minutes against Northern Michigan but had 12 points and 4 rebounds and he can shoot the 3-ball. He worries me a bit. I’ve also been hearing really good things about Aaron Henry.
-
Defend the 3 point line well and KU wins running away. Let Winston, Langford or McQuaid get hot though, and one of them might be able to carry MSU’s offense well enough to keep them in the game.
-
BeddieKU23 said:
BShark said:
@BeddieKU23 It’s basically all McQuaid does well. Not a rebounder, not a guy that you ask to make plays and is maybe average on defense.
Yup, he’s exactly as advertised. He’s a just a pain in the butt for KU. I know we read scouting report but literally guys should know don’t even leave him he’s not going anywhere
Absolutely. Make him drive it.
-
KirkIsMyHinrich said:
Talking to MSU fans, they seem to have absolutely no confidence in their backcourt outside of Cassius Winston. They think their advantage will be in the frontcourt.
Nick Ward vs Doke honestly feels like a wash to me. Their stat-lines from last season are pretty much identical and Doke is 2 or 3 inches taller and 30-40 pounds larger. Nick Ward doesn’t shoot 3’s. Neither does Xavier Tillman, who is 6’8, 245.
Dedric is going to have a huge matchup advantage over Goins or Tillman (whichever one starts).
The matchup that scares me the most is Winston vs whoever KU throws at him. I feel like it would be worth starting Marcus Garrett at the point in this game just to put some size and experience on Winston.
Tillman will start.
This game could really be a slog.
-
I would guess that Tillman starts too.
-
KirkIsMyHinrich said:
Talking to MSU fans, they seem to have absolutely no confidence in their backcourt outside of Cassius Winston. They think their advantage will be in the frontcourt.
Nick Ward vs Doke honestly feels like a wash to me. Their stat-lines from last season are pretty much identical and Doke is 2 or 3 inches taller and 30-40 pounds larger. Nick Ward doesn’t shoot 3’s. Neither does Xavier Tillman, who is 6’8, 245.
Dedric is going to have a huge matchup advantage over Goins or Tillman (whichever one starts).
The matchup that scares me the most is Winston vs whoever KU throws at him. I feel like it would be worth starting Marcus Garrett at the point in this game just to put some size and experience on Winston.
Ward is skilled around the basket though and knows how to use his huge body for positioning etc. Expect Doke in foul trouble, its what he does. This is a matchup we’d kill to have De Sousa eligible. Oh well.
Their starting backcourt is fine. Winston & Langford are all Big-10 quality but your right outside of them its unknowns. Usually Izzo has something that’s been developing in the program that he can use but he doesn’t this year so some freshman will have to play at times. Izzo brought in a lot of talented development types so this is a good year to catch them when they are rebuilding some.
Dedric has an advantage against any team/any player in the country. I don’t expect that changes. Cheat code good.
I’m expecting a low scoring/sloppy first game. I think mid-2nd half we get a little bit of separation and hold on
-
Vick is the only KU player to have played against MSU in the Champions Classic and Vick and Mitch the only two that played against them in the last game in 2017. Most of the players really don’t know much about the history or rivalry between the teams.
-
BeddieKU23 said:
KirkIsMyHinrich said:
Talking to MSU fans, they seem to have absolutely no confidence in their backcourt outside of Cassius Winston. They think their advantage will be in the frontcourt.
Nick Ward vs Doke honestly feels like a wash to me. Their stat-lines from last season are pretty much identical and Doke is 2 or 3 inches taller and 30-40 pounds larger. Nick Ward doesn’t shoot 3’s. Neither does Xavier Tillman, who is 6’8, 245.
Dedric is going to have a huge matchup advantage over Goins or Tillman (whichever one starts).
The matchup that scares me the most is Winston vs whoever KU throws at him. I feel like it would be worth starting Marcus Garrett at the point in this game just to put some size and experience on Winston.
Ward is skilled around the basket though and knows how to use his huge body for positioning etc. Expect Doke in foul trouble, its what he does. This is a matchup we’d kill to have De Sousa eligible. Oh well.
I think you let Doke go at him for as long as he can stay in the game. If he struggles, let Lawson start guarding him in the 2nd half. Try to bother him with those long arms.
-
@Kcmatt7 Attack him on the other end too with Doke. I would rather put Mitch and Dave on him if Doke gets into foul trouble. Don’t want Lawson to get into foul trouble. Let Dave and Mitch play him physically and pick up the fouls. Ward was a 62% FT shooter last season so him getting to the line isn’t the worst thing in the world.
-
@KirkIsMyHinrich That’s why I said the 2nd half. I don’t want Lawson in foul trouble either. But if Ward is killing us and Dedric goes into the half with 0 or 1 fouls, it would probably be worth the risk. He isn’t a foul prone player.
I do want to stay away from trying to force it in to Doke just so we can try to get Ward in foul trouble. If it happens organically, fantastic. Otherwise I say just play good offense. Ward is pretty good about staying out of foul trouble and so trying to force that could definitely backfire.
-
It’s not necessarily just about Ward getting into foul trouble. I want Ward to have to work at both ends of the floor, so I want Doke to go at him. I don’t want to force anything, but I do think KU should make an effort to go inside a lot. Agree with Dedric on Ward at times if Dedric is not in foul trouble.
-
KirkIsMyHinrich said:
It’s not necessarily just about Ward getting into foul trouble. I want Ward to have to work at both ends of the floor, so I want Doke to go at him. I don’t want to force anything, but I do think KU should make an effort to go inside a lot. Agree with Dedric on Ward at times if Dedric is not in foul trouble.
I don’t think we will have to worry about Doke leaning on him. We’ll make him work.
If we really wanted to make him work we’d pull Doke out early and let Lawson play the 5 and make him defend all the way out to the 3 point line.
-
I think Doke posting constantly would wear anyone out just as much as guarding Dedric on the perimeter. But I also think Doke shot 77% from the field last season and is a really good option offensively.
-
Ahhhh , can you feel it - -it is close. --the championships classic - - HELL YA. - all I got to say is - - CAN YOU smelllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll what the ROCK IS COOKING. - - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
-
@KirkIsMyHinrich Yup. 77% from two is greater than 45% from 3 land. Now, if Doke could rebound some of those missed threes and finish, it’d be even better!
-
@KirkIsMyHinrich Doke struggles with smaller quicker guys knocking the ball away from him. It’s been one of my biggest pet peeves of the Self era, why he doesn’t teach his bigs not to bring the down and allow the defense to recover is flatout mind boggling. Roy Williams always had guys that would go straight up and that’s how you are most effective in the post. We saw against repeatedly against Emporia State resulting in 6 turnovers for Doke in just 17 minutes. Go straight up with it big fella and dunk it right on their heads lol.
-
These Champions classic’s are always close for the most part , hope we play well -Show. - - -Our last two have been really close 65-61 over Kentucky and then 77-75 - -over Duke - -hate those close games when we win , much rather be like 8-9 point wins so I could relax some what instead of sitting on the edge of the recliner OR getting up and walking out of the room on a last possession cause I can’t bear to watch when we up one with the other team with the ball or us down one in the final seconds with the ball. - -I hate those this old ticker can’t take it lmao. - Can’t have those with my new pacemaker lol- -maybe I need to call Coach Self and let him know lol. - - ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
-
I’m a little disappointed I’m home right now. Last two season’s I was fortunate enough to go to these games. I highly suggest going to one if you can swing it at some point. They have Alumni events that weekend. Usually KU plays the Friday before this (or has) and there is a giant watch party. Then there is typically a complimentary pregame with tons of food and drinks all comped by the School of Business and Engineering.
They also split up the stadium into 4 quadrants. Of course, 3 or the 4 are blue, but it’s fun to sit next to KU fans so its a big party in your section. And it’s not an “NCAA” event so they can serve beer during the game.
It really is a great event.
-
All the money must be coming in on Tucky and KU, as the lines have went to tucky - 2, and we’re favored by up to 6 1/2. It’s interesting that yesterday Dook was a 1 point favorite, so that’s a 3 point move in that game to Tucky. BBD ( Big Blue Dumbasses ) must be betting xmas money.
