MSU KU Predictions
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Key to the game: Do not ever, ever, leave #20 open. NO help D
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@BeddieKU23 Or Winston for that matter.
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BShark said:
@BeddieKU23 Or Winston for that matter.
I’d assume since he’s the PG we’ll guard him. But McQuaid has one job and he always does it well against KU
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@BeddieKU23 It’s basically all McQuaid does well. Not a rebounder, not a guy that you ask to make plays and is maybe average on defense.
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BShark said:
@BeddieKU23 It’s basically all McQuaid does well. Not a rebounder, not a guy that you ask to make plays and is maybe average on defense.
Yup, he’s exactly as advertised. He’s a just a pain in the butt for KU. I know we read scouting report but literally guys should know don’t even leave him he’s not going anywhere
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So I would expect Michigan St has around an 9 man rotation. I haven’t dived into their exhibitions or seen what they expect starts/plays so I’m going by memory.
Starting 5:
PG- Winston Jr
SG- McQuaid, Sr
SF- Langford, Jr
PF- Tillman, So
C- Ward, Jr
Rotation, Goins, Sr PF, Bingham Jr, FR, PF/C, Loyer, FR, PG, Brown/Henry, FR/FR, SF’s.
Outside of Goins they will have freshman in the rotation off the bench. Bingham has a lot of upside but is likely to be flashes for a while. Loyer will be a solid PG. KU has a big advantage if we can get any of their starters in foul trouble and they have to rely on different combinations against us. I expect a majority of the offense for Michigan St to revolve around Ward then Winston/Langford. KU just has to contain them from having 50+ as a trio and we’ll be in good shape
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Talking to MSU fans, they seem to have absolutely no confidence in their backcourt outside of Cassius Winston. They think their advantage will be in the frontcourt.
Nick Ward vs Doke honestly feels like a wash to me. Their stat-lines from last season are pretty much identical and Doke is 2 or 3 inches taller and 30-40 pounds larger. Nick Ward doesn’t shoot 3’s. Neither does Xavier Tillman, who is 6’8, 245.
Dedric is going to have a huge matchup advantage over Goins or Tillman (whichever one starts).
The matchup that scares me the most is Winston vs whoever KU throws at him. I feel like it would be worth starting Marcus Garrett at the point in this game just to put some size and experience on Winston.
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@BeddieKU23 This looks right. All the Michigan St fans seem pretty down on Goins so I wouldn’t be surprised if Tillman started. Bingham Jr. only got 9 minutes against Northern Michigan but had 12 points and 4 rebounds and he can shoot the 3-ball. He worries me a bit. I’ve also been hearing really good things about Aaron Henry.
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Defend the 3 point line well and KU wins running away. Let Winston, Langford or McQuaid get hot though, and one of them might be able to carry MSU’s offense well enough to keep them in the game.
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BeddieKU23 said:
BShark said:
@BeddieKU23 It’s basically all McQuaid does well. Not a rebounder, not a guy that you ask to make plays and is maybe average on defense.
Yup, he’s exactly as advertised. He’s a just a pain in the butt for KU. I know we read scouting report but literally guys should know don’t even leave him he’s not going anywhere
Absolutely. Make him drive it.
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KirkIsMyHinrich said:
Talking to MSU fans, they seem to have absolutely no confidence in their backcourt outside of Cassius Winston. They think their advantage will be in the frontcourt.
Nick Ward vs Doke honestly feels like a wash to me. Their stat-lines from last season are pretty much identical and Doke is 2 or 3 inches taller and 30-40 pounds larger. Nick Ward doesn’t shoot 3’s. Neither does Xavier Tillman, who is 6’8, 245.
Dedric is going to have a huge matchup advantage over Goins or Tillman (whichever one starts).
The matchup that scares me the most is Winston vs whoever KU throws at him. I feel like it would be worth starting Marcus Garrett at the point in this game just to put some size and experience on Winston.
Tillman will start.
This game could really be a slog.
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I would guess that Tillman starts too.
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KirkIsMyHinrich said:
Talking to MSU fans, they seem to have absolutely no confidence in their backcourt outside of Cassius Winston. They think their advantage will be in the frontcourt.
Nick Ward vs Doke honestly feels like a wash to me. Their stat-lines from last season are pretty much identical and Doke is 2 or 3 inches taller and 30-40 pounds larger. Nick Ward doesn’t shoot 3’s. Neither does Xavier Tillman, who is 6’8, 245.
Dedric is going to have a huge matchup advantage over Goins or Tillman (whichever one starts).
The matchup that scares me the most is Winston vs whoever KU throws at him. I feel like it would be worth starting Marcus Garrett at the point in this game just to put some size and experience on Winston.
Ward is skilled around the basket though and knows how to use his huge body for positioning etc. Expect Doke in foul trouble, its what he does. This is a matchup we’d kill to have De Sousa eligible. Oh well.
Their starting backcourt is fine. Winston & Langford are all Big-10 quality but your right outside of them its unknowns. Usually Izzo has something that’s been developing in the program that he can use but he doesn’t this year so some freshman will have to play at times. Izzo brought in a lot of talented development types so this is a good year to catch them when they are rebuilding some.
Dedric has an advantage against any team/any player in the country. I don’t expect that changes. Cheat code good.
I’m expecting a low scoring/sloppy first game. I think mid-2nd half we get a little bit of separation and hold on
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Vick is the only KU player to have played against MSU in the Champions Classic and Vick and Mitch the only two that played against them in the last game in 2017. Most of the players really don’t know much about the history or rivalry between the teams.
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BeddieKU23 said:
KirkIsMyHinrich said:
Talking to MSU fans, they seem to have absolutely no confidence in their backcourt outside of Cassius Winston. They think their advantage will be in the frontcourt.
Nick Ward vs Doke honestly feels like a wash to me. Their stat-lines from last season are pretty much identical and Doke is 2 or 3 inches taller and 30-40 pounds larger. Nick Ward doesn’t shoot 3’s. Neither does Xavier Tillman, who is 6’8, 245.
Dedric is going to have a huge matchup advantage over Goins or Tillman (whichever one starts).
The matchup that scares me the most is Winston vs whoever KU throws at him. I feel like it would be worth starting Marcus Garrett at the point in this game just to put some size and experience on Winston.
Ward is skilled around the basket though and knows how to use his huge body for positioning etc. Expect Doke in foul trouble, its what he does. This is a matchup we’d kill to have De Sousa eligible. Oh well.
I think you let Doke go at him for as long as he can stay in the game. If he struggles, let Lawson start guarding him in the 2nd half. Try to bother him with those long arms.
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@Kcmatt7 Attack him on the other end too with Doke. I would rather put Mitch and Dave on him if Doke gets into foul trouble. Don’t want Lawson to get into foul trouble. Let Dave and Mitch play him physically and pick up the fouls. Ward was a 62% FT shooter last season so him getting to the line isn’t the worst thing in the world.
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@KirkIsMyHinrich That’s why I said the 2nd half. I don’t want Lawson in foul trouble either. But if Ward is killing us and Dedric goes into the half with 0 or 1 fouls, it would probably be worth the risk. He isn’t a foul prone player.
I do want to stay away from trying to force it in to Doke just so we can try to get Ward in foul trouble. If it happens organically, fantastic. Otherwise I say just play good offense. Ward is pretty good about staying out of foul trouble and so trying to force that could definitely backfire.
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It’s not necessarily just about Ward getting into foul trouble. I want Ward to have to work at both ends of the floor, so I want Doke to go at him. I don’t want to force anything, but I do think KU should make an effort to go inside a lot. Agree with Dedric on Ward at times if Dedric is not in foul trouble.
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KirkIsMyHinrich said:
It’s not necessarily just about Ward getting into foul trouble. I want Ward to have to work at both ends of the floor, so I want Doke to go at him. I don’t want to force anything, but I do think KU should make an effort to go inside a lot. Agree with Dedric on Ward at times if Dedric is not in foul trouble.
I don’t think we will have to worry about Doke leaning on him. We’ll make him work.
If we really wanted to make him work we’d pull Doke out early and let Lawson play the 5 and make him defend all the way out to the 3 point line.
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I think Doke posting constantly would wear anyone out just as much as guarding Dedric on the perimeter. But I also think Doke shot 77% from the field last season and is a really good option offensively.
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Ahhhh , can you feel it - -it is close. --the championships classic - - HELL YA. - all I got to say is - - CAN YOU smelllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll what the ROCK IS COOKING. - - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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@KirkIsMyHinrich Yup. 77% from two is greater than 45% from 3 land. Now, if Doke could rebound some of those missed threes and finish, it’d be even better!
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@KirkIsMyHinrich Doke struggles with smaller quicker guys knocking the ball away from him. It’s been one of my biggest pet peeves of the Self era, why he doesn’t teach his bigs not to bring the down and allow the defense to recover is flatout mind boggling. Roy Williams always had guys that would go straight up and that’s how you are most effective in the post. We saw against repeatedly against Emporia State resulting in 6 turnovers for Doke in just 17 minutes. Go straight up with it big fella and dunk it right on their heads lol.
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These Champions classic’s are always close for the most part , hope we play well -Show. - - -Our last two have been really close 65-61 over Kentucky and then 77-75 - -over Duke - -hate those close games when we win , much rather be like 8-9 point wins so I could relax some what instead of sitting on the edge of the recliner OR getting up and walking out of the room on a last possession cause I can’t bear to watch when we up one with the other team with the ball or us down one in the final seconds with the ball. - -I hate those this old ticker can’t take it lmao. - Can’t have those with my new pacemaker lol- -maybe I need to call Coach Self and let him know lol. - - ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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I’m a little disappointed I’m home right now. Last two season’s I was fortunate enough to go to these games. I highly suggest going to one if you can swing it at some point. They have Alumni events that weekend. Usually KU plays the Friday before this (or has) and there is a giant watch party. Then there is typically a complimentary pregame with tons of food and drinks all comped by the School of Business and Engineering.
They also split up the stadium into 4 quadrants. Of course, 3 or the 4 are blue, but it’s fun to sit next to KU fans so its a big party in your section. And it’s not an “NCAA” event so they can serve beer during the game.
It really is a great event.
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All the money must be coming in on Tucky and KU, as the lines have went to tucky - 2, and we’re favored by up to 6 1/2. It’s interesting that yesterday Dook was a 1 point favorite, so that’s a 3 point move in that game to Tucky. BBD ( Big Blue Dumbasses ) must be betting xmas money.
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Well , had to do my little search on game day - see what the opposition fans was having to say. - -It’s always interesting to see what the fans are saying.
So with that being said some things that can stat your day with a little chuckle: - -I’ll save what I thought was the best one for last.
Boosters will probably be in the locker room handing out Cash if KU is leading at the half. - - - - Any sanctions from Dollar Bills unethical behavior will be assessed to K-State - - - -and here is the best negative I have seen so anyways what I thought and it was - - -Just curious to see if Self will be Coaching - - - -roflmao – - Whaaaa? - -myself thought was just funny as hell lol - -I got some giggles out of that one anyways.
No this was one of some the positive things said - - KU probably has the best roster in College basketball - - - -Quite a few are actually quoting that KU will win comfortably - -I mean like 13-18 points - -this from MSU fans - -I don’t see that. Some saying they might hang with us for the half then w pull away - -comments like how deep we are in the frontline - saying they think we have very talented tall backcourt. - -just passing along. - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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MSU’s roster is just a bunch of guys. KU could crush them, or MSU could play very cohesively and beat KU. I doubt with KU’s talent they get blown out and my money is on a KU victory.
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@Kcmatt7 Sounds like a good time. I was able to make it down to Wichita for the opening rounds of the NCAA tournament. You couldn’t have beer inside but outside KU had basically one huge party with Food trucks and a prep rally. I’d highly recommend going if you are able, I’m ready for the next time they are in Wichita 2021 I believe.
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@kjayhawks Elite 8 is in KC this year I believe…
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Looks like Garrett will get the start over Grimes. According to Tait:
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@Kcmatt7 Ya I’ve live about an hour north of Wichita and a 3 from KC so it’s a little easier for me to go down there. I would like to check out the power and light district someday. We were actually up in KC in August but the College hall of fame was closed the 2 days were there and I had my whole family so I couldn’t go too crazy lol.
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Sparty has a massive advantage over us experience wise. I think this is a nail biter, and we win by 3.
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As is pretty usual, KU has a chance at a great travel schedule providing they take care of business. Des Moines or Tulsa to start. Then Kansas City. Finish an easy drive up I-35 to Minneapolis.
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Seeing that Garrett is starting concerns me. This team is not athletic. And I was concerned, quite frankly, that we looked pretty pedestrian vs. Washburn. We have a lot of talent – but we will need scoring. Garrett may have worked on his shot, but it is still horrible. Last year, I think Garrett on the floor helped given the composition of our team, and how we were scoring. This season, my first impression is that Garrett may be a net liability. First impressions off of two exhibition games.
Of course, it is the minutes that matter. So we’ll see how much everyone plays.
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Is Garrett officially named the starter?
Could be for defensive purposes and sending a message to his freshman.
But agree the minutes distribution will be the most important part here
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@BeddieKU23 Just reacting to the link above … and we all know in early season games, Self may start guys who have been there for a few games anyway. I guess with this team, I’m just concerned if Garrett is a high minutes guy (with this team) if he continues to be so poor scoring-wise.
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I agree about the concerns with Garrett on offense. I don’t think he put that to rest in the exhibitions either. His shot still looks ugly and defenses will not hesitate to play off him.
I want to see Marcus aggressive with the ball. He shot the ball well inside the arc last season and I hope they focus on getting him in situations where he can get to the hoop.
This year we are going to score differently and that’s one of Self’s biggest areas to work on this season. Fitting the offense to the personnel and getting the right people on the floor. I don’t want to write him off just yet without seeing how real action goes with him in the lineup. He has value in a lot of other area’s and Self seems to trust him so he’ll likely play, a lot. We’ll find out in 8 hours
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@DanR @KirkIsMyHinrich Sure, 77% is better than 45%, but reliance on shooting % can be a bit misleading in determining whether he had a good/efficient game. If Doke is 4-5 from the field, he betters his shooting %. But, that reflects shot attempts. If he turns it over 5 times, goes 3-8 from the FT line (with 2 missed front-ends), passes weakly and late in the shot clock out of double teams (leading to wasted possessions), and the other teams big can score from the perimeter on him - is that net net a productive performance??? What is also important is his usage rate and how efficient the Hawks are scoring when he has touches.
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FWIW, line is moving more in favor of KU. Opened at -5.5, bumped to -6.5 currently…
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We have the deepest bench in college basketball. Garrett has earned the start, although Grimes should end up playing more minutes. We have tremendous firepower available.
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If Dedric scores 20 per, Doke can be a consistent scoring force inside, and Vick has the kind of offensive season many of us hope/expect, then the Garrett discussion is much different. Garrett can be the perfect compliment. But on an offensively challenged team, he could be an anchor. I like the point about him driving from @BeddieKU23 – I want him to look for that and be aggressive with it.
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@HighEliteMajor I wouldn’t worry about Garrett as a fulltime starter. They’re only going with MG because we’re facing Winston and Langford. Winston is an exceptional pg, and Langford is a 5 star recruit, so we’re throwing our 2 best defenders on the perimeter at them. It wouldn’t surprise me if Grimes doesn’t end up with more minutes than Garrett. Vick has a plus matchup against Quaid, which has to account partly for why we go with such a poor shooter at the 2. Not sure who Sparty has that could defend Dedric…maybe they’ll try Tillman because Goins looks like to me to be just a typical Sparty bruiser. Ward will probably get his, but they’ll need half the team to stop Doke. Last year’s team could only dream of having such good perimeter defenders.
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I’m happy with Garrett starting, but I thought he would be starting over Dotson, not Grimes. Garrett is probably our best perimeter defender, I’m not sure I’d call Dotson our 2nd best, though. I was hoping it would be Garrett guarding Winston, Vick guarding Langford, and Grimes guarding McQuaid. Defensively, that would put a lot of length on the perimeter and make it harder for Michigan St to shoot 3’s.
Maybe Self is mad (reasonably) about turnovers in the first 2 exhibition games, though? In their 2 exhibition games against Emporia St and Washburn, Kansas turned the ball over 42 times. In those 2 games, Dotson only had 3 of those turnovers and Garrett only had 1. So maybe this is Self’s take-care-of-the-ball and make-good-entry-passes lineup.
Is Matt Tait usually right about these lineups? I mean he does have Kenny Goins projected to start for Michigan St and a lot of us think that Xavier Tillman is going to start.
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I think it is going to come down to not turning the ball over and solid D. I too wish Grimes would be starting on McQuiad but he will more than likely have plenty of chances later on in the game. Really can’t let them get comfortable from 3 - Winston and McQuaid are their main threats. Keep them contained out there, and we should be fine.
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BShark said:
FWIW, line is moving more in favor of KU. Opened at -5.5, bumped to -6.5 currently…
Someone just posted on the Phog, the line is down to 4
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UK board seems to think that their only advantage is depth tonight. They think they might have to go Zone and play big to compete. Not a good sign for them imo.
MSU at +5 is a good bet. 2-0 against KU in this tournament. They just held their exhibition opponent to 47. Even if KU wins, 5 points is a pretty big spread to cover in a game where the winner is probably whoever gets to 70 points first.
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What if Garret is in to guard Ward? A recent story on the Phog has Garret as being able to play 1-4. Yes, he would be giving up inches but bigger guys tend to have problems with smaller, faster players guarding them and KU is not counting on Garret to generate much offense anyway. So, if Garret, who is a very good defensive player, can disrupt Ward’s game enough to get him in foul trouble early, could end up being a great strategic move.
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@JayHawkFanToo Ward is 250 lbs, and 6’9". MG is 6’5" and probably comes in at a buck sixty. Back in the day, I used to play pickup games one on one against a guy that started for Seward county juco, and he was about 70 or so lbs heavier than me, and half a foot taller, and I’d do well for the first 5,6,7 times he drove on me, but that bigger body would just wear me down, and he’d simply drive to the rim, and put his shoulders up, and I was cooked. Yes, MG could hold his own if he was switching screens a time or two against Ward, but over the course of a game, Ward would wear him out. good idea, but the physics would work against us, I’m afraid.
