Villanova?
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Loses at the beginning of the season tend to count more because teams are still trying to iron out details. Even the Computer rankings indicate that the results get better with more games until they reach what in statistics is called steady state where wins and lose do not have nearly as much effect.
At this point, the stage is pretty much set with only minor changes coming as a result of conference tournaments which in many conferences means an automatic qualification. Should ISU or OSU win the Big 12 Tournament, it would be the official conference representative and likely one of the bottom teams falls off.
If we are looking at the conference as a whole, it would be best for teams in the bubble , KSU, or teams in the Last Four In, Texas and Baylor, to win a game or two to strengthen their places and not fall off…more teams, more money to the conference.
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Any chance Gonzaga is an outside chance of a #1 seed. I see them creeping up the rankings again and another win over Saint Mary’s would put them around 30-4 heading into the dance.
Resume isn’t terrible, not great- wins over Ohio St, Texas, Creighton, Washington, Saint Mary’s -Losses to Villanova, Saint Mary’s, Florida, San Diego St.
I’m not lobbying for them but they seem to be under the radar a bit compared to last season and are having another great season by Gonzaga standards.
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Gonzaga has one bad loss, to San Diego State. They only have seven top 100 wins. If they played in a power conference, they would have a resume roughly equal to Michigan State. But in the WCC, that’s a tough sell.
The one thing they have going for them is that all of their top 50 wins were by double figures. They beat Ohio State by 27. They beat Creighton by 17. They went up to Washington and beat the Huskies by 17. They went on the road and beat St. Mary’s by 13 (lost by 3 to the Gaels in Spokane). That’s a reasonably good resume. The only team to beat them by more than six was Villanova. But I think they are short on quality wins.
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@JayHawkFanToo How much money has KU made, I wonder, for other conference members during our streak of consecutive NCAA appearances? 94 games between Roy and Bill, with at least 6 more this year, we hope!
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The WCC is way too weak for Gonzaga to have multiple good wins. The only other decent teams is Saint Mary’s who has beaten Gonzaga. The third teams is BYU with an 11-7 conference record and 22-9 overall.
Gonzaga should do what Notre Dame did, join the PAC 12 in basketball only since they don’t have a football team.
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Rather than Pac-12 (which likely wouldn’t accept a basketball only member) Gonzaga and St. Mary’s should look for an option like the WAC or Mountain West in basketball only. Moving two more strong programs into one of those leagues puts them on par with the A-10 and American as a consistent multiple bid league.
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Probably not nearly as much as KU has made from other conference teams winning in football.
It would be interesting to see a rundown of both sports. I know that the KU football program generates more money than the basketball program…weird, isn’t it? Football really drives the train in college sports.
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justanotherfan said:
Gonzaga has one bad loss, to San Diego State. They only have seven top 100 wins. If they played in a power conference, they would have a resume roughly equal to Michigan State. But in the WCC, that’s a tough sell.
The one thing they have going for them is that all of their top 50 wins were by double figures. They beat Ohio State by 27. They beat Creighton by 17. They went up to Washington and beat the Huskies by 17. They went on the road and beat St. Mary’s by 13 (lost by 3 to the Gaels in Spokane). That’s a reasonably good resume. The only team to beat them by more than six was Villanova. But I think they are short on quality wins.
That SD St loss hurts them as SD St isn’t the same team that was a perennial tourney team anymore. I was just throwing their name out there. I think they are likely a #3 seed given the resume, maybe a 2 if some teams falter in the next week and they go into the dance with that guady record.
I know Michigan St has a championship caliber team but shouldn’t the committee be using them as a perfect example to schedule more aggressively in the non-conference. A power 5 team doesn’t deserve a #1 seed if you have played as few of Top 100 teams as they have. I know the Big-10 has had as many as 7 teams have down seasons all at once which can’t be predicted but between the NC and the Big-10 conference inequality Michigan St should be a # 2 seed at best come Selection Sunday. We’ll see what happens over the next 12 days
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Gonzaga got a #1 seed last year in the same conference. They just seem to be forgotten this year because they don’t have as sexy a roster and not as many big wins this year. Had they beaten Villanova in the NC they would absolutely be a #1 seed candidate. The lack of a “star” win keeps their resume below the level that usually gets a 1 seed…
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Not nearly as dominating last year or with elite players. Very good team though and well coached. I like Mark Few, he runs a really good and clean program.
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Really!? I had no idea KU football generated more income than our basketball. Is that because of tv money, shared conference revenue, or what?
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Short answer, yes, all of the above particularly Conference TV money.
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Big 10 should get 5 teams in the tournament MAX, and Nebraska is questionable (first four out right now). Everyone else in that league would need to win the conference tourney. Given that, Most everyone else should miss. If Nebraska doesn’t win the tournament, they are probably out, too.
Even Ohio State’s resume is basically built on the weakness of the Big 10. They have zero top 50 wins outside the conference. They were swept by Penn State, who is not going dancing this year barring a run at the Big 10 tournament. They are 8-7 against top 100 opponents, but 16-0 against non-top 100 opponents. That’s really not much better than Gonzaga, who the committee slots as a 5, while giving Ohio State a 4 right now.
Missouri presents an interesting question if Porter comes back for the SEC tournament. If he’s healthy and productive, that’s going to be a tough matchup for whatever 8/9 bracket Mizzou ends up in (hopefully in Nashville with Xavier and not Wichita with KU).
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@justanotherfan Good analysis. Would observe that the Committee has demonstrated in the past and I expect this year as well inconsistent application of their “rules” and the metrics. My own view is that the top 2 lines are fairly well locked in, but not the order of seeding: UVA, MSU, Villanova, KU, Duke, Xavier, Purdue and UNC. Really don’t see anyone else moving up. My guess is the Auburn’s ceiling is a 3 - they beat absolutely no one of consequence outside of conference. UVA is locked and loaded as a 1, even if they lose early in the ACC tournament. KU is certainly a 1 if we win out, but iffy with another loss, and definitely not a 1 if they lose to OSU and in the B12 tournament. The Big East will almost certainly have a 1 and 2 seed - even if someone other than Villanova or Xavier win the BE tourney. Given that Villanova beat Xavier twice, I think they have to win the BE tourney to get a 1; if not, Villanova will get the 1. Notwithstanding the weakness of their overall profile compared to other teams, I would be VERY surprised if Michigan State did not get a 1 if they win out. I also think Duke or UNC would get a 1 if they win out and neither KU nor MSU do. Purdue is the only one of the top 8 that doesn’t have a shot at a 1 seed.
After the 1s and 2s, I think the 3s will be Auburn, the winner of Cincinnati and WSU, Gonzaga and a gaggle for the last 3 and the 4s among TTU, WVU, Tenn, loser of Cincinnati/WSU, Ohio State, Michigan, Arizona, URI and Clemson.
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Hard to tell if Porter will play for MU. If he does it will be to improve his NBA stock but he might risk injury if he starts playing too soon.
With all the future money involved, he would be foolish to play; he will be a lottery pick regardless, unless NBA scouts have negative information about his injury that we don’t know. Bracketology has MU playing KU in the second round…MU would love that.
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NBA execs are saying he should play if he can. Basically, Porter is a lottery pick if he sits the rest of the season, but a top 5 pick if he can do something in the next week or two, even if he isn’t great. If he is great (leads MU to Sweet Sixteen or better), he could be top 3. That’s a pretty significant difference in money versus being the seventh or eighth pick.
The caveat is that only applies if he is completely healthy. He shouldn’t try to play if he’s 80%. He’s only gone through limited practice so far, so he’s not going to play until the SEC tournament at the earliest, but that’s a week away, with the NCAA’s a week after that.
If he’s close enough and has no setbacks, he could change the tournament (and maybe move MU up a seedline or two).
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Porter should sit the rest of the season just to be safe and come back next year to solidify his spot as the #1 pick. Even tho Nova is a fantastic team, def the overall seed, I would love a revenge game against those guys. Can’t wait to see if this team can extend this win streak, win the b12 tournament and get red hot. Wouldn’t it be great to win a title then roll into next year the preseason #1? Too hyphy right now…
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JayHawkFanToo said:
Not nearly as dominating last year or with elite players. Very good team though and well coached. I like Mark Few, he runs a really good and clean program.
Gonzaga still has a few NBA players and I think at least 4 guys from last year’s run came back but it’s definitely not the stacked roster they had last yr. I don’t think they will be an easy out the way they have played for the past month or so
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I wouldn’t play if I was porter. I wouldn’t even workout for anyone or do any interviews. He’d still be a top 10 pick.
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Of course NBA execs want to see him play, they want to make sure they don’t pick damaged merchandise. A good showing and he goes up a couple of spots a bad showing or a worse yet a reinjury and his stocks drops at best or he becomes the next Isaiah Austin.
Ever since ol’ man Oden, the NBA is leery of players with a history of serious injuries. Remember Arthur? He should have been a lottery pick and almost dropped of the first round and was picked #27 because a rumor he had a health issue (kidney), in my opinion, he should sit the rest of the season and not risk so much, he will be a millionaire any way and will not have to wash away as much stench from playing for MU.
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Last night shook some things up from my view of the bracket. K-State and Oklahoma, both of whom have shaky cases in my view, lost critical games.
The Wildcats, who own just two top 50 wins (OU and TCU, both of whom split the season series with KSU) and don’t have a single top 50 win away from Manhattan, have the double whammy of a weak non conference schedule and no truly impressive wins. Lots of places have them as a 10ish seed right now, but if they lose to Baylor on Saturday, then get knocked out of the Big 12 tournament early, I think their status will be shaky on Selection Sunday.
For Oklahoma, they have some good wins (Kansas, TTech, Wichita State in Wichita, TCU, USC) but they also have an incredible number of losses, particularly losses where they weren’t competitive (lost by 30 at Kansas, lost by 18 at KSU, lost by 23 last night in Waco). That pushes them closer to the bubble than you would imagine for a team with the win quality that they have.
UNC losing last night makes the case harder for the ACC to get two #2 seeds. The American champ, particularly if either Cincinnati or Wichita State wins both the regular season and conference tournament (WSU and Cincy play Sunday in what could be a game to decide who gets on the 2 line). With UNC and Duke still having to face off, and then needing to go through UVA for the ACC title, it’s tough to see a way for both UNC and Duke to stay on that 2 line.
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@justanotherfan Most of the teams are about to be handed one more loss in their conference tournaments as well. There is just a little time left for a shake up.
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OU continues to plunge. Just when they got a much needed home win against K-St they go ahead and get crushed at Baylor. I don’t know how much the committee is going to care about the margin as much as the amount of games they have lost in the past month. If they care about both OU is in danger of not going to the dance if they don’t win another game the rest of the year.
I think K-St is safely in unless they completely screw up from here on out.
Texas has played themselves out unless they get a miracle. Injury to Bamba and Davis being out doesn’t help their cause.
Oklahoma St would need to beat KU and have a run for the ages in the Big-12 tourney to get in at this point.
Outside the Big-12, Auburn continues to fall since the injury to their big. I’m shocked they are still considered on the 3 line. Best win all year @ Tennessee? Getting exposed IMO.
I don’t think the UNC lost does much for them. If they beat Duke on Saturday on the road that’s a big resume boost having the season sweep. Miami has had two very lucky breaks in the past week.
Florida keeps itself off the bubble line with an important road victory. Alabama should not make the tournament
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@BeddieKU23 The Big 12 standings sure are a jumbled mess. Will have to get out the tie breaker rules for (likely) multiple instances.
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KSU was in the bubble before last night and no longer in the bubble now and seeded 10…go figure.
