Bracketology thread for the next few weeks.
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kjayhawks said:
Libscomb tops Joe Dooley and FGCU to get to the dance. I watched this one and FGCU flatout didn’t show up till the last 15 minutes, they were down 29 at he half and by as many as 32 in the second. They got it down to 5 points on a few occasions but didn’t have enough stops in the end to pull off what would’ve been the biggest come back in NCAA history.
Wouldn’t have even been the biggest this season. Drexel came back from 34 down a couple of weeks ago.
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Lots of 13 win teams don’t make it to the dance. Considering how weak the Big 10 is this year and that it does not have a true round robin so many of theirs wins are against the weaker team they played twice but played MSU, Purdue and OSU only once and lost. Their RPI is #64.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 - - lmao - - ok, ok, glad you jumped on that wouldn’t want to rock the boat roflmfao. - - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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@Texas-Hawk-10 MERCY we are on a roll today - - just quick as quick can be -dam must be nice to be so correct lmao - -oh ya baby – -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY – - -
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JayHawkFanToo said:
Lots of 13 win teams don’t make it to the dance. Considering how weak the Big 10 is this year and that it does not have a true round robin so many of theirs wins are against the weaker team they played twice but played MSU, Purdue and OSU only once and lost. Their RPI is #64.
You also don’t really ever see 13 win teams from major conferences miss the NCAA tournament so this might be unprecedented for a power conference team.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 correction biggest 2nd half comeback
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@jayballer73 there is always one hard a**, just kidding @Texas-Hawk-10 lmao
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Would like to see FGCU make it. They could upset someone…
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@Gorilla72 FGCU is going to the NIT this year.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 -
Surely Dooley can death stare them into the NCAAT!
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The last 8 wins for Nebraska we’re against unranked teams in the very weak Big 10. Only 2 of its wins have been against ranked team teams including the 3rd game of conference play against Minnesota which since then has fallen on hard times and has not been ranked for awhile and finished the season 4-14 in conference play and the other against then #23 Michigan which just returned the favor in the last game beating Nebraska by 19 points. Not the record of a solid candidate.
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They did win the regular season conference title by 2 full games.
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It’s going to be funny seeing what the Selection Committee does with the Pac-12 & SEC. Two conferences that have been mediocre at best again. Some good teams from smaller leagues will again get the shaft as they do every year.
What team other then Arizona from the Pac-12 is even going to be favored to win a game? Find one.
Seems like 7 will get in from the SEC. Auburn has been solid but lost a key player. Tennessee has had a very good year and is playing well. Who else? A up and down Kentucky team likely to have 11 losses going into the tourney? A&M likely to have 12 losses? Arkansas 11, Missouri 12.
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@BeddieKU23 After many years of living in SEC country I really loathe them! And I always feel a little guilty about it because they’re one of the more successful leagues in the dance. SC making it last year and beating FL to get to the FF is just the latest example. Funny thing is their fans don’t even appreciate it.
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I don’t want to see Michigan, Florida, or any Pac 12 team until the Final Four if they, or we make it that far.
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I see Lunardi has us today as a 1 seed. MSU a 3 seed. No clue how that coul be accurate. My assumption is we better beat OU / OSU if we want a shot at staying on the 1 line and possibly 2 wins in the Big 12 tourney.
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wissox said:
@BeddieKU23 After many years of living in SEC country I really loathe them! And I always feel a little guilty about it because they’re one of the more successful leagues in the dance. SC making it last year and beating FL to get to the FF is just the latest example. Funny thing is their fans don’t even appreciate it.
FL and SC were good teams last year, much better then anything in the SEC this year. This year Auburn & Tennessee fit the bill of good teams that could go far. I’m bullish on Auburn now that they lost their best defender and post player. 4-4 in their last 8 (started 21-2). They are a young team, no seniors and no tourney experience leaves them vulnerable in the first weekend. It will be a major surprise to see any SEC team beyond those two getting past the first weekend.
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joeloveshawks said:
I see Lunardi has us today as a 1 seed. MSU a 3 seed. No clue how that coul be accurate. My assumption is we better beat OU / OSU if we want a shot at staying on the 1 line and possibly 2 wins in the Big 12 tourney.
It is accurate. Michigan St has played the weakest schedule of any Power 5 team. Losing record vs the Top 50 RPI. They were a 3 seed in the initial reveal of the Top 16 teams weeks ago and did nothing since to raise their seed.
KU has to win the Big-12 tourney to keep the #1 seed. Xavier or Duke can leapfrog them with their own conference tourney wins.
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Bill needs to play this just right. Win the first game and lose the 2nd. Give us a 2 seed in the Midwest instead of a 1 seed in LA. jmo though.
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I want to win them all but that’s just my opinion. Having to play either Oklahoma school a 3rd time is potential payback city. Either K-St or TCU in the Semi’s who we went 4-0 against and then whatever comes out of West Virginia/Tech… Win it all and go in with some momentum. Losing again does nothing IMO for this team
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Kcmatt7 said:
Bill needs to play this just right. Win the first game and lose the 2nd. Give us a 2 seed in the Midwest instead of a 1 seed in LA. jmo though.
Interesting thought. I wouldn’t mind being the #2 with Xavier.
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@BeddieKU23 Exactly. Bill needs to play this right if he can. Keep an eye on the other tournaments and then let’s see what he can do to effect some change. Or at least try to get this team on the easiest road.
Looking at it right now as well, I like the 3-6 matchups much better than any of the 4-5 ones. Right now, I see underseeded 4s and 5s and overseeded 3s and 6s.
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@Kcmatt7 If we get the 2 seed, they’ll put Michigan St as the 3 seed…just watch them…lol.
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Interesting note, KU is 1-3 against OU and OSU, I would prefer playing OU since OSU seems to be a bad matchup for KU.
I would like tournaments to reseed after the early rounds. I know there have been proposals to do it in the NCAA but I seriously doubt it will ever happen.
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@KUSTEVE Lol stop. Nope. Positive vibes only bish. We are going to get the 2 seed and then be in a bracket where and 11 seed has upsets over the 3 and 6 seeds and then we end up playing a 15, 10 and 11 seed on our way to an Elite Eight matchup vs. Xavier in Omaha.
Really need a couple of teams to steal bids though. The 11 seeds at the moment are a little bit scary for being 11 seeds… Although I’d love another shot at ASU.
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We need to start rooting for some crazy Conference tournament results though. Some of these 11 seeds need to get knocked out. Below is a list of teams that could steal bids from these 11 seeds:
- A-10. Will get Rhode Island and St. Bon in for sure. But I think another team could actually win the tourney if they get hot.
- Big East - This one is a long shot. Would take a crazy run by St. John’s or Georgetown most likely.
- Conference USA - If MTSU can get knocked off, that is an extra bid for the league.
- Mountain West - If anyone but Nevada wins, boom there is a bid.
- WCC could steal one if BYU or SFU can somehow pull off some magic.
Those are probably the biggest tournaments to pay attention to that could drastically change any brackets at this point. The link below is the best bracketologist over the past several years. I can tell you I much prefer the 3-6 matchups in his bracket to the 4-5s.
https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/
Can we fast forward to next Thursday already?
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Schedule strengths are funny beasts to me. Seeing MSU as a 3 is a little puzzling because in the first several weeks of the season they played (rankings at the time of playing) #1 Duke, #5 ND, #9 UNC, caught a break by only seeing OSU, Purdue and Michigan 1 time (at least until conference championship). And in those games they’re 4-3. That’s against teams that have all been top 10 in the country at some point in the season. Not sterling, but not terrible either.
We have played top 10 at some point Kentucky, Tech, OU, and WVU and ASU. Not positive if Baylor was ever top 10. 5-4 against top 10 teams. We have been getting lauded for a tough schedule, MSU getting ripped for it.
Now, let me clear this up too. MSU has deservedly been under a very dark and heavy cloud of suspicion this season, from the sex scandal which miraculously seems to be pushed out of the spotlight and the paying Bridges thing. I’ve gone from a MSU admirer and Izzo fan to a much less favorable view of them. I really hope they fizzle out. I think they will. Shorthanded UW played them down to the last possession Friday and nearly beat them the weak before, and of course Michigan beat them solidly yesterday. But a 4 loss team this season, in my view deserves better than a 3 seed.
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You have some good points.
What seems to hurt Michigan St more then their record vs ranked or Top 50 teams is the putrid non-conference schedule that saw them play North Florida, Stony Brook, Southern Utah, Houston Baptist, Long Beach St, Cleveland St, & Savannah St. Impressive list, my grandma and her friends could be competitive against that bunch.
I cannot forgive the Big-10 either for scheduling them to play Michigan only once during the regular season. That’s a joke having to play your inner-state rival one time, at home, which they lost BTW.
Some of their opponents hit hard times when they were used to being perennial Top 25 teams. Uconn, Maryland, Wisconsin, Indiana. I don’t hold that against them its just the luck of the draw in that situation.
Now I don’t think their record (29-4) is a true indication of how good they are. There’s a good chance this is a 24-7 type team (Like KU) had the teams they played been better or the Big-10 schedule been different. I think the record is a bit exaggerated due to the competition and they got extremely lucky in that regard.
You do watch the Big-10 more following Wisconsin which gave them two scares in a week…Does Michigan St really strike you as better then a 3 seed after seeing your shorthanded Badgers almost beat them?
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@JayHawkFanToo but but but how will I print my bracket?!?
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@BeddieKU23 the early season Spartans yes. Lately not sure but in a season of losses piling up for so many I still am struggling with the possibility of them being a three seed. Of course two years ago I thought they got screwed by being given the two seed and then they lose to mid tenn so who knows!
By the way the Big 14 really screwed themselves up by expanding. You’re right about that and then they go out and play their tourney in two east coast locales the last two years.
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@wissox They are 3-4 in quadrant 1 games. Not good. Undefeated in all of their other quadrants, but the played nobody.
They played a total of 12 games in the first two quadrants. Including their conference tournament. That schedule is weak af. Even if they did play some top of the top teams. The rest of the schedule was sooooo bad. They played 9 quadrant 4 games. 9 dog crap teams.
For comparison:
KU played 24 games in quadrants 1 and 2. With a potential for 3 more in quadrants 1 and 2 with the conference tourney still yet to be played. And we have a record of 18-6 in those games. Only 4 quadrant 4 games played
Duke has played 19 games in quadrants 1 and 2 and are 13-6 in those games. Only 4 quadrant 4 games played.
Virginia played 16 games in the first two quadrants, going 14-2 in those games. They only played 5 quadrant 4 games.
Villanova played 18 quadrant 1 games and 4 quadrant 4 games.
Xavier played 18 quadrant 1 games and 4 quadrant 4 games.
UNC played 21 quadrant 1 games and 4 quadrant 4 games.
Purdue played 17 quadrant 1 games, and 9 quadrant 4 games.
Tennessee played 18 quadrant 1 games and 3 quadrant 4 games.
MSU played a very, very very bad schedule.
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If anyone wants to look at the “team sheets” the committee uses, here is the link.
https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats Library/March 4, 2018 Team Sheets.pdf
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You left two very’s off the very very very bad schedule. That is pretty putrid the way you put it.
But they beat all their bad teams. We beat all of ours too but did lose to some mediocre teams and I’m not sure MSU did. They lost to three solid tourney teams, one twice.
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@wissox Another stat that is on the team sheets is average RPI win and average RPI loss. What we have been talking about is exactly Michigan State.
- Average RPI Win Rank: 151
- Average RPI Loss Rank: 13
Exactly what we were talking about. You mentioned they played really good teams early in the season. And they lost those games. Ala, the RPI rank when they lost. But then, you see the flip side. Their wins at 151. What a weird season and schedule from Izzo.
I do think the Big 10 was disrespected this season and that hurts them a lot. We will see though. I wouldn’t want to face any of the Big 10 teams that made it.
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As per Jeff Sagarin KU Strength of schedule is #7, Michigan State is #69, according to KenPom #8 and #62…not close at all. KU does have a strong SOS, Michigan State does not. As I indicated before, it would not surprise me to see MSU as a 3 or even 4 seed; the price you pay for playing in a weak conference and a soft schedule. Nebraska is in the same boat and might not even make it to the tournament.
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Printed brackets are overrated. Go to a digital schedule that resets automatically.
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Interesting that most still have OSU out after they beat us Saturday, I personally think the loser of the OU OSU game Wednesday should be out. How OU is safely in at a 10 currently tho they spilt the season series with OSU while having the same conference record coupled with more bad losses.
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OU is in because Trae Young, first half of the season Trae Young that is, is a big draw, without him they are out.
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@JayHawkFanToo yep all about he viewership
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wissox said:
@BeddieKU23 the early season Spartans yes. Lately not sure but in a season of losses piling up for so many I still am struggling with the possibility of them being a three seed. Of course two years ago I thought they got screwed by being given the two seed and then they lose to mid tenn so who knows!
By the way the Big 14 really screwed themselves up by expanding. You’re right about that and then they go out and play their tourney in two east coast locales the last two years.
The Spartans are an interesting team. NBA talent, NBA size, elite coach. You don’t get 29 wins without being good. We’ve seen the good & bad of Michigan St in one recent game against Northwestern in which they were down 20+ at half and came back to win improbably.
Early season Sparty looked good as you mentioned, I suppose their biggest wins of the season were the B2B wins against UNC & Notre Dame. After that their best win is? Home by 3 points against Purdue was probably the last big impression they left . I’ve watched about 10 Michigan St games this season including the recent one’s and I don’t see a team that is playing better then a #3 seed. I see some individuals that look as if they are thinking ahead towards the next level. Besides having Jaren Jackson this is the same team that KU beat down in the 2nd round last year.
People that see their gaudy record might think a #3 seed is low for a team like Michigan St. If the committee follows through with the principles in seeding teams Spartan Nation will be happy to have a #3 seed because the schedule is dreadful. I think the AD for MSU has some work to do to clean up how they schedule.
I also think for comparison there are people looking at KU possibly being a #1 seed with 7 losses as outrageous. If its all about wins and losses I’d agree, 7 losses is a lot to reward a team a high seed. If they win the Big-12 tourney and get a #1 seed it will tie the record for the most losses given to a 1 seed in NCAA Tournament History. In a normal year KU would be lucky to stay on the #2 line. As we all know by now this isn’t a typical year in CBall. KU just has a really good resume that’s going to give them an edge with the committee, maybe even inflating their true seed line. I’ve seen some bracket sites listing KU as an over-seeded team. Our non-conference didn’t seem all that difficult on paper and the Big-12 didn’t look like it was going to have 7-8 tournament worthy teams but both have given KU a resume that’s as good as any in the country. What’s better the gaudy record or better resume?
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kjayhawks said:
Interesting that most still have OSU out after they beat us Saturday, I personally think the loser of the OU OSU game Wednesday should be out. How OU is safely in at a 10 currently tho they spilt the season series with OSU while having the same conference record coupled with more bad losses.
I agree. Oklahoma St has 6 wins against ranked teams. Must be their non-conference weighting heavily against them right now.
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Saint Mary’s lost in the semi’s to BYU. Saint Mary’s didn’t help themselves with seeding at all. A great record without great wins except @ Gonzaga.
BYU can steal a bid tonight against Gonzaga. Yoeli Childs went nuts last night scoring 33. Will have to do it again if they think they can beat Zaga. Zags won both meetings pretty comfortably during the regular season.
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Two more teams got in last night. Iona won the MAAC & UNC Greensboro won the Southern.
UNCG is an interesting team, won 27 games. They beat NC St who’s likely in and only gave up 60 to Virginia. Kenpom’s 31st ranked defense FYI which is 15 spots better then KU. Francis Alonso can really shoot the rock, over 100 3’s on the year.
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Tonight the Horizon League, CAA, Northeast, WCC & Summit League all have their finals.
South Dakota & South Dakota St battle for the 1 bid with their combined 53-13 records. We crushed South Dakota St in Allen earlier this year. South Dakota dropped close games to TCU & UCLA in non-conference. The loser will not dance…Should be a good one.
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@BeddieKU23 It seems that the opinion of KU and the quality of the wins again relies on the opinion of the quality of the Big 12. I mean, who did we beat in the non-con? Not one team in the top 25 as far as I can tell. Syracuse, TAM, UK all have had down or disappointing seasons. And we lost to UW and ASU who have slid back. They’re not even getting votes. The inflated value of the Big 12 is puzzling. I think we should slide into the two seed, and that fits our season about right.
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HighEliteMajor said:
@BeddieKU23 It seems that the opinion of KU and the quality of the wins again relies on the opinion of the quality of the Big 12. I mean, who did we beat in the non-con? Not one team in the top 25 as far as I can tell. Syracuse, TAM, UK all have had down or disappointing seasons. And we lost to UW and ASU who have slid back. They’re not even getting votes. The inflated value of the Big 12 is puzzling. I think we should slide into the two seed, and that fits our season about right.
The non-conference certainly wasn’t daunting. It’s ranked 22nd according to the RPI. We just minimized playing bad teams, only 4 outside the Top 100. Smart scheduling, KU knows what it takes to keep itself at the top.
The inflated value of the Big-12 can be attributed to the Round Robin Schedule. Teams get 2 cracks at KU, its the only reason Oklahoma St is even on the bubble line right now. So either the Big-12 conference is a genius for keeping at 10 teams or its just luck really. It’s helping the bubble Big-12 teams stay afloat. Just Iowa St having a bad season makes the conference look strong top to bottom and the middle is so cluttered you don’t even know who’s really any good.
However their are some atrocious Power 5 teams in the ACC, Pac-12, Big-10 & SEC so just because those conferences have strength in numbers doesn’t make them any better. Pitt didn’t even win a conference game. The bottom 4 in the Big-10 barely combined to win more conference games then KU did. About 50 mid-major schools could have beaten Cal this season. 8 teams in the SEC were 500 or less in conference play.
If we throw tournament success into the mix then of course the Big-12’s regular season success becomes a mute point. Not much we can do as fans, we hope KU wins the championship and the rest of the league does well to validate the conference overall.
I think more important if we are talking KU is did the 2017-2018 schedule prepare us for March? I think we are battle tested, we have no misconceptions of what this team is. Even if we are a #1 seed or a #2 seed I think most of the fan base knows this team will have to play its best ball to win every game after round 1. If we don’t we go home to a long and sulky off-season full of who’s leaving, transfer talk, recruiting, lineup projections that only carry us so far.
Our leaders have to shine bright now. This team goes as far as Devonte & Self can carry them.
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@HighEliteMajor 8 of the 13 non-con games were quadrant 1 or quadrant 2 games. SDSU was a great schedule. A Quadrant 2 home game.
Self and his staff have mastered the art of building a schedule that sets us up for situations like this. A 7 loss team still apparently in the drivers seat for the 4th #1 seed or the 1st #2 seed is a little bit crazy.
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Lunardi (thankfully never accurate) has #6 Gonzaga as a 5 seed in KU’s bracket and preseason #1 Arizona as KU’s 4 seed. Gonzaga as a 5 is grossly underseeded. Arizona is about right, but a tough draw with Ayton playing like he is. MSU and UNC as the 2/3 so get to the elite eight and it’s a more favorable matchup.
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@dylans Of the ones Lunardi has on the 4/5 line, I would like to avoid Florida, Ohio State and Wichita State at all costs. So I am ok with the current bracket. I think Doke could dominate the Gonzaga game, and I think he is about one of the only players that could hang with Ayton. Arizona is also a terrible Defensive team. The combo of Doke being able to guard Ayton combining with how poorly UA plays defensively is the type of matchup I like for us.
I would put Arizona on upset alert opening weekend tbh. Can’t play D. They get matched up with a slow-paced, defensive oriented team, and they will find themselves in a dog-fight. SDSU would give UA a run for their money.
