Bracketology thread for the next few weeks.
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7 losses, still #1 seed? I just don’t see it.
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@BShark putting Saint Mary’s as a 10 seed is almost as dumb as putting a 3 loss #23 ranked UNI team as a 10 seed. Bilas said something today that I really agree with about how some of theses mid majors that are on the bubble with 24 or 25 wins are at huge disadvantage because they don’t play top 50 or even top 100 teams in their conference tournament. I personally think a team like Old Dominion deserves to be in more than a team like OSU. They are giving a ton of respect to the big east with both Nova and Xavier as one seeds.
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HighEliteMajor said:
Who wants to bet that somehow, some way, we are set up to meet MU in the 2nd round – 1 vs. 8/9, 2 vs. 7/10? Seems like the easiest bracketology prediction we could make.
NCAA had a chance to do this in 2013 when both Missouri and Wichita St. played in different regions in the 8/9 game. The committee instead gave KU UNC/Villanova as their 8/9 seed. If the committee didn’t set up a potential Border War game that season (Missouri’s 1st in the SEC), Then I don’t see them putting Missouri in a potential match up with Kansas this year either.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 The main difference I see there is the passage of time without renewal of the rivalry. But you never know what the tourney folks are thinking.
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Nebraska might have the dubious distinction of winning 13 league games and not making it to the dance.
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@kjayhawks I agree. The committee has a history of this kind of stupidity.
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wissox said:
7 losses, still #1 seed? I just don’t see it.
I agree. That does not compute.
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@HighEliteMajor Welp as of this morning your right. -at least one of them. - -ESPN and Lunardi has Missouri as a # 9 in our region which means if we were to win and them beat Butler they would be a 2nd round matchup
Jerry Palm from CBS has V/Tech vs St Marys as a 8/9 matchup in our Region. -And of course the talk is Micheal Porter will play - talking about really good chances of him playing in the SEC tourney - -so there you go - - - go figure. - - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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@jayballer73 Top 20 team in the country by any measure St Marys. Unreal that they won’t be a 4/5 seed.
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@jayballer73 I just feel it coming …
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Just a note. - - -Radford becomes the 1st team in the dance. - - Big South Champs - - -22-12
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Loyola of Chicago is now in. Great story. 1st bid since 1985. Their chaplain is a 98 year old nun who prays before the game and throws in a scouting report into her prayer. I.E “We pray we’ll have success boxing out #42 who grabs 5 offensive rebounds every game”. After games she emails the coach and players what they did well and what they need to improve upon.
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wissox said:
Loyola of Chicago is now in. Great story. 1st bid since 1985. Their chaplain is a 98 year old nun who prays before the game and throws in a scouting report into her prayer. I.E “We pray we’ll have success boxing out #42 who grabs 5 offensive rebounds every game”. After games she emails the coach and players what they did well and what they need to improve upon.
Surely that is against some NCAA rules. Is she payed? Are they over the limits on assistant coaches? Maybe Yahoo will break the story.
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jayballer73 said:
Just a note. - - -Radford becomes the 1st team in the dance. - - Big South Champs - - -22-12
Murray St. got in first
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Libscomb tops Joe Dooley and FGCU to get to the dance. I watched this one and FGCU flatout didn’t show up till the last 15 minutes, they were down 29 at he half and by as many as 32 in the second. They got it down to 5 points on a few occasions but didn’t have enough stops in the end to pull off what would’ve been the biggest come back in NCAA history.
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kjayhawks said:
Libscomb tops Joe Dooley and FGCU to get to the dance. I watched this one and FGCU flatout didn’t show up till the last 15 minutes, they were down 29 at he half and by as many as 32 in the second. They got it down to 5 points on a few occasions but didn’t have enough stops in the end to pull off what would’ve been the biggest come back in NCAA history.
Wouldn’t have even been the biggest this season. Drexel came back from 34 down a couple of weeks ago.
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Lots of 13 win teams don’t make it to the dance. Considering how weak the Big 10 is this year and that it does not have a true round robin so many of theirs wins are against the weaker team they played twice but played MSU, Purdue and OSU only once and lost. Their RPI is #64.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 - - lmao - - ok, ok, glad you jumped on that wouldn’t want to rock the boat roflmfao. - - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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@Texas-Hawk-10 MERCY we are on a roll today - - just quick as quick can be -dam must be nice to be so correct lmao - -oh ya baby – -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY – - -
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JayHawkFanToo said:
Lots of 13 win teams don’t make it to the dance. Considering how weak the Big 10 is this year and that it does not have a true round robin so many of theirs wins are against the weaker team they played twice but played MSU, Purdue and OSU only once and lost. Their RPI is #64.
You also don’t really ever see 13 win teams from major conferences miss the NCAA tournament so this might be unprecedented for a power conference team.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 correction biggest 2nd half comeback
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@jayballer73 there is always one hard a**, just kidding @Texas-Hawk-10 lmao
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Would like to see FGCU make it. They could upset someone…
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@Gorilla72 FGCU is going to the NIT this year.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 -
Surely Dooley can death stare them into the NCAAT!
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The last 8 wins for Nebraska we’re against unranked teams in the very weak Big 10. Only 2 of its wins have been against ranked team teams including the 3rd game of conference play against Minnesota which since then has fallen on hard times and has not been ranked for awhile and finished the season 4-14 in conference play and the other against then #23 Michigan which just returned the favor in the last game beating Nebraska by 19 points. Not the record of a solid candidate.
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They did win the regular season conference title by 2 full games.
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It’s going to be funny seeing what the Selection Committee does with the Pac-12 & SEC. Two conferences that have been mediocre at best again. Some good teams from smaller leagues will again get the shaft as they do every year.
What team other then Arizona from the Pac-12 is even going to be favored to win a game? Find one.
Seems like 7 will get in from the SEC. Auburn has been solid but lost a key player. Tennessee has had a very good year and is playing well. Who else? A up and down Kentucky team likely to have 11 losses going into the tourney? A&M likely to have 12 losses? Arkansas 11, Missouri 12.
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@BeddieKU23 After many years of living in SEC country I really loathe them! And I always feel a little guilty about it because they’re one of the more successful leagues in the dance. SC making it last year and beating FL to get to the FF is just the latest example. Funny thing is their fans don’t even appreciate it.
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I don’t want to see Michigan, Florida, or any Pac 12 team until the Final Four if they, or we make it that far.
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I see Lunardi has us today as a 1 seed. MSU a 3 seed. No clue how that coul be accurate. My assumption is we better beat OU / OSU if we want a shot at staying on the 1 line and possibly 2 wins in the Big 12 tourney.
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wissox said:
@BeddieKU23 After many years of living in SEC country I really loathe them! And I always feel a little guilty about it because they’re one of the more successful leagues in the dance. SC making it last year and beating FL to get to the FF is just the latest example. Funny thing is their fans don’t even appreciate it.
FL and SC were good teams last year, much better then anything in the SEC this year. This year Auburn & Tennessee fit the bill of good teams that could go far. I’m bullish on Auburn now that they lost their best defender and post player. 4-4 in their last 8 (started 21-2). They are a young team, no seniors and no tourney experience leaves them vulnerable in the first weekend. It will be a major surprise to see any SEC team beyond those two getting past the first weekend.
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joeloveshawks said:
I see Lunardi has us today as a 1 seed. MSU a 3 seed. No clue how that coul be accurate. My assumption is we better beat OU / OSU if we want a shot at staying on the 1 line and possibly 2 wins in the Big 12 tourney.
It is accurate. Michigan St has played the weakest schedule of any Power 5 team. Losing record vs the Top 50 RPI. They were a 3 seed in the initial reveal of the Top 16 teams weeks ago and did nothing since to raise their seed.
KU has to win the Big-12 tourney to keep the #1 seed. Xavier or Duke can leapfrog them with their own conference tourney wins.
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Bill needs to play this just right. Win the first game and lose the 2nd. Give us a 2 seed in the Midwest instead of a 1 seed in LA. jmo though.
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I want to win them all but that’s just my opinion. Having to play either Oklahoma school a 3rd time is potential payback city. Either K-St or TCU in the Semi’s who we went 4-0 against and then whatever comes out of West Virginia/Tech… Win it all and go in with some momentum. Losing again does nothing IMO for this team
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Kcmatt7 said:
Bill needs to play this just right. Win the first game and lose the 2nd. Give us a 2 seed in the Midwest instead of a 1 seed in LA. jmo though.
Interesting thought. I wouldn’t mind being the #2 with Xavier.
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@BeddieKU23 Exactly. Bill needs to play this right if he can. Keep an eye on the other tournaments and then let’s see what he can do to effect some change. Or at least try to get this team on the easiest road.
Looking at it right now as well, I like the 3-6 matchups much better than any of the 4-5 ones. Right now, I see underseeded 4s and 5s and overseeded 3s and 6s.
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@Kcmatt7 If we get the 2 seed, they’ll put Michigan St as the 3 seed…just watch them…lol.
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Interesting note, KU is 1-3 against OU and OSU, I would prefer playing OU since OSU seems to be a bad matchup for KU.
I would like tournaments to reseed after the early rounds. I know there have been proposals to do it in the NCAA but I seriously doubt it will ever happen.
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@KUSTEVE Lol stop. Nope. Positive vibes only bish. We are going to get the 2 seed and then be in a bracket where and 11 seed has upsets over the 3 and 6 seeds and then we end up playing a 15, 10 and 11 seed on our way to an Elite Eight matchup vs. Xavier in Omaha.
Really need a couple of teams to steal bids though. The 11 seeds at the moment are a little bit scary for being 11 seeds… Although I’d love another shot at ASU.
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We need to start rooting for some crazy Conference tournament results though. Some of these 11 seeds need to get knocked out. Below is a list of teams that could steal bids from these 11 seeds:
- A-10. Will get Rhode Island and St. Bon in for sure. But I think another team could actually win the tourney if they get hot.
- Big East - This one is a long shot. Would take a crazy run by St. John’s or Georgetown most likely.
- Conference USA - If MTSU can get knocked off, that is an extra bid for the league.
- Mountain West - If anyone but Nevada wins, boom there is a bid.
- WCC could steal one if BYU or SFU can somehow pull off some magic.
Those are probably the biggest tournaments to pay attention to that could drastically change any brackets at this point. The link below is the best bracketologist over the past several years. I can tell you I much prefer the 3-6 matchups in his bracket to the 4-5s.
https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/
Can we fast forward to next Thursday already?
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Schedule strengths are funny beasts to me. Seeing MSU as a 3 is a little puzzling because in the first several weeks of the season they played (rankings at the time of playing) #1 Duke, #5 ND, #9 UNC, caught a break by only seeing OSU, Purdue and Michigan 1 time (at least until conference championship). And in those games they’re 4-3. That’s against teams that have all been top 10 in the country at some point in the season. Not sterling, but not terrible either.
We have played top 10 at some point Kentucky, Tech, OU, and WVU and ASU. Not positive if Baylor was ever top 10. 5-4 against top 10 teams. We have been getting lauded for a tough schedule, MSU getting ripped for it.
Now, let me clear this up too. MSU has deservedly been under a very dark and heavy cloud of suspicion this season, from the sex scandal which miraculously seems to be pushed out of the spotlight and the paying Bridges thing. I’ve gone from a MSU admirer and Izzo fan to a much less favorable view of them. I really hope they fizzle out. I think they will. Shorthanded UW played them down to the last possession Friday and nearly beat them the weak before, and of course Michigan beat them solidly yesterday. But a 4 loss team this season, in my view deserves better than a 3 seed.
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You have some good points.
What seems to hurt Michigan St more then their record vs ranked or Top 50 teams is the putrid non-conference schedule that saw them play North Florida, Stony Brook, Southern Utah, Houston Baptist, Long Beach St, Cleveland St, & Savannah St. Impressive list, my grandma and her friends could be competitive against that bunch.
I cannot forgive the Big-10 either for scheduling them to play Michigan only once during the regular season. That’s a joke having to play your inner-state rival one time, at home, which they lost BTW.
Some of their opponents hit hard times when they were used to being perennial Top 25 teams. Uconn, Maryland, Wisconsin, Indiana. I don’t hold that against them its just the luck of the draw in that situation.
Now I don’t think their record (29-4) is a true indication of how good they are. There’s a good chance this is a 24-7 type team (Like KU) had the teams they played been better or the Big-10 schedule been different. I think the record is a bit exaggerated due to the competition and they got extremely lucky in that regard.
You do watch the Big-10 more following Wisconsin which gave them two scares in a week…Does Michigan St really strike you as better then a 3 seed after seeing your shorthanded Badgers almost beat them?
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@JayHawkFanToo but but but how will I print my bracket?!?
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@BeddieKU23 the early season Spartans yes. Lately not sure but in a season of losses piling up for so many I still am struggling with the possibility of them being a three seed. Of course two years ago I thought they got screwed by being given the two seed and then they lose to mid tenn so who knows!
By the way the Big 14 really screwed themselves up by expanding. You’re right about that and then they go out and play their tourney in two east coast locales the last two years.
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@wissox They are 3-4 in quadrant 1 games. Not good. Undefeated in all of their other quadrants, but the played nobody.
They played a total of 12 games in the first two quadrants. Including their conference tournament. That schedule is weak af. Even if they did play some top of the top teams. The rest of the schedule was sooooo bad. They played 9 quadrant 4 games. 9 dog crap teams.
For comparison:
KU played 24 games in quadrants 1 and 2. With a potential for 3 more in quadrants 1 and 2 with the conference tourney still yet to be played. And we have a record of 18-6 in those games. Only 4 quadrant 4 games played
Duke has played 19 games in quadrants 1 and 2 and are 13-6 in those games. Only 4 quadrant 4 games played.
Virginia played 16 games in the first two quadrants, going 14-2 in those games. They only played 5 quadrant 4 games.
Villanova played 18 quadrant 1 games and 4 quadrant 4 games.
Xavier played 18 quadrant 1 games and 4 quadrant 4 games.
UNC played 21 quadrant 1 games and 4 quadrant 4 games.
Purdue played 17 quadrant 1 games, and 9 quadrant 4 games.
Tennessee played 18 quadrant 1 games and 3 quadrant 4 games.
MSU played a very, very very bad schedule.
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If anyone wants to look at the “team sheets” the committee uses, here is the link.
https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats Library/March 4, 2018 Team Sheets.pdf
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You left two very’s off the very very very bad schedule. That is pretty putrid the way you put it.
But they beat all their bad teams. We beat all of ours too but did lose to some mediocre teams and I’m not sure MSU did. They lost to three solid tourney teams, one twice.
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@wissox Another stat that is on the team sheets is average RPI win and average RPI loss. What we have been talking about is exactly Michigan State.
- Average RPI Win Rank: 151
- Average RPI Loss Rank: 13
Exactly what we were talking about. You mentioned they played really good teams early in the season. And they lost those games. Ala, the RPI rank when they lost. But then, you see the flip side. Their wins at 151. What a weird season and schedule from Izzo.
I do think the Big 10 was disrespected this season and that hurts them a lot. We will see though. I wouldn’t want to face any of the Big 10 teams that made it.
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As per Jeff Sagarin KU Strength of schedule is #7, Michigan State is #69, according to KenPom #8 and #62…not close at all. KU does have a strong SOS, Michigan State does not. As I indicated before, it would not surprise me to see MSU as a 3 or even 4 seed; the price you pay for playing in a weak conference and a soft schedule. Nebraska is in the same boat and might not even make it to the tournament.
