Bracketology thread for the next few weeks.
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joeloveshawks said:
I see Lunardi has us today as a 1 seed. MSU a 3 seed. No clue how that coul be accurate. My assumption is we better beat OU / OSU if we want a shot at staying on the 1 line and possibly 2 wins in the Big 12 tourney.
It is accurate. Michigan St has played the weakest schedule of any Power 5 team. Losing record vs the Top 50 RPI. They were a 3 seed in the initial reveal of the Top 16 teams weeks ago and did nothing since to raise their seed.
KU has to win the Big-12 tourney to keep the #1 seed. Xavier or Duke can leapfrog them with their own conference tourney wins.
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Bill needs to play this just right. Win the first game and lose the 2nd. Give us a 2 seed in the Midwest instead of a 1 seed in LA. jmo though.
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I want to win them all but that’s just my opinion. Having to play either Oklahoma school a 3rd time is potential payback city. Either K-St or TCU in the Semi’s who we went 4-0 against and then whatever comes out of West Virginia/Tech… Win it all and go in with some momentum. Losing again does nothing IMO for this team
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Kcmatt7 said:
Bill needs to play this just right. Win the first game and lose the 2nd. Give us a 2 seed in the Midwest instead of a 1 seed in LA. jmo though.
Interesting thought. I wouldn’t mind being the #2 with Xavier.
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@BeddieKU23 Exactly. Bill needs to play this right if he can. Keep an eye on the other tournaments and then let’s see what he can do to effect some change. Or at least try to get this team on the easiest road.
Looking at it right now as well, I like the 3-6 matchups much better than any of the 4-5 ones. Right now, I see underseeded 4s and 5s and overseeded 3s and 6s.
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@Kcmatt7 If we get the 2 seed, they’ll put Michigan St as the 3 seed…just watch them…lol.
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Interesting note, KU is 1-3 against OU and OSU, I would prefer playing OU since OSU seems to be a bad matchup for KU.
I would like tournaments to reseed after the early rounds. I know there have been proposals to do it in the NCAA but I seriously doubt it will ever happen.
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@KUSTEVE Lol stop. Nope. Positive vibes only bish. We are going to get the 2 seed and then be in a bracket where and 11 seed has upsets over the 3 and 6 seeds and then we end up playing a 15, 10 and 11 seed on our way to an Elite Eight matchup vs. Xavier in Omaha.
Really need a couple of teams to steal bids though. The 11 seeds at the moment are a little bit scary for being 11 seeds… Although I’d love another shot at ASU.
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We need to start rooting for some crazy Conference tournament results though. Some of these 11 seeds need to get knocked out. Below is a list of teams that could steal bids from these 11 seeds:
- A-10. Will get Rhode Island and St. Bon in for sure. But I think another team could actually win the tourney if they get hot.
- Big East - This one is a long shot. Would take a crazy run by St. John’s or Georgetown most likely.
- Conference USA - If MTSU can get knocked off, that is an extra bid for the league.
- Mountain West - If anyone but Nevada wins, boom there is a bid.
- WCC could steal one if BYU or SFU can somehow pull off some magic.
Those are probably the biggest tournaments to pay attention to that could drastically change any brackets at this point. The link below is the best bracketologist over the past several years. I can tell you I much prefer the 3-6 matchups in his bracket to the 4-5s.
https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/
Can we fast forward to next Thursday already?
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Schedule strengths are funny beasts to me. Seeing MSU as a 3 is a little puzzling because in the first several weeks of the season they played (rankings at the time of playing) #1 Duke, #5 ND, #9 UNC, caught a break by only seeing OSU, Purdue and Michigan 1 time (at least until conference championship). And in those games they’re 4-3. That’s against teams that have all been top 10 in the country at some point in the season. Not sterling, but not terrible either.
We have played top 10 at some point Kentucky, Tech, OU, and WVU and ASU. Not positive if Baylor was ever top 10. 5-4 against top 10 teams. We have been getting lauded for a tough schedule, MSU getting ripped for it.
Now, let me clear this up too. MSU has deservedly been under a very dark and heavy cloud of suspicion this season, from the sex scandal which miraculously seems to be pushed out of the spotlight and the paying Bridges thing. I’ve gone from a MSU admirer and Izzo fan to a much less favorable view of them. I really hope they fizzle out. I think they will. Shorthanded UW played them down to the last possession Friday and nearly beat them the weak before, and of course Michigan beat them solidly yesterday. But a 4 loss team this season, in my view deserves better than a 3 seed.
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You have some good points.
What seems to hurt Michigan St more then their record vs ranked or Top 50 teams is the putrid non-conference schedule that saw them play North Florida, Stony Brook, Southern Utah, Houston Baptist, Long Beach St, Cleveland St, & Savannah St. Impressive list, my grandma and her friends could be competitive against that bunch.
I cannot forgive the Big-10 either for scheduling them to play Michigan only once during the regular season. That’s a joke having to play your inner-state rival one time, at home, which they lost BTW.
Some of their opponents hit hard times when they were used to being perennial Top 25 teams. Uconn, Maryland, Wisconsin, Indiana. I don’t hold that against them its just the luck of the draw in that situation.
Now I don’t think their record (29-4) is a true indication of how good they are. There’s a good chance this is a 24-7 type team (Like KU) had the teams they played been better or the Big-10 schedule been different. I think the record is a bit exaggerated due to the competition and they got extremely lucky in that regard.
You do watch the Big-10 more following Wisconsin which gave them two scares in a week…Does Michigan St really strike you as better then a 3 seed after seeing your shorthanded Badgers almost beat them?
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@JayHawkFanToo but but but how will I print my bracket?!?
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@BeddieKU23 the early season Spartans yes. Lately not sure but in a season of losses piling up for so many I still am struggling with the possibility of them being a three seed. Of course two years ago I thought they got screwed by being given the two seed and then they lose to mid tenn so who knows!
By the way the Big 14 really screwed themselves up by expanding. You’re right about that and then they go out and play their tourney in two east coast locales the last two years.
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@wissox They are 3-4 in quadrant 1 games. Not good. Undefeated in all of their other quadrants, but the played nobody.
They played a total of 12 games in the first two quadrants. Including their conference tournament. That schedule is weak af. Even if they did play some top of the top teams. The rest of the schedule was sooooo bad. They played 9 quadrant 4 games. 9 dog crap teams.
For comparison:
KU played 24 games in quadrants 1 and 2. With a potential for 3 more in quadrants 1 and 2 with the conference tourney still yet to be played. And we have a record of 18-6 in those games. Only 4 quadrant 4 games played
Duke has played 19 games in quadrants 1 and 2 and are 13-6 in those games. Only 4 quadrant 4 games played.
Virginia played 16 games in the first two quadrants, going 14-2 in those games. They only played 5 quadrant 4 games.
Villanova played 18 quadrant 1 games and 4 quadrant 4 games.
Xavier played 18 quadrant 1 games and 4 quadrant 4 games.
UNC played 21 quadrant 1 games and 4 quadrant 4 games.
Purdue played 17 quadrant 1 games, and 9 quadrant 4 games.
Tennessee played 18 quadrant 1 games and 3 quadrant 4 games.
MSU played a very, very very bad schedule.
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If anyone wants to look at the “team sheets” the committee uses, here is the link.
https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats Library/March 4, 2018 Team Sheets.pdf
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You left two very’s off the very very very bad schedule. That is pretty putrid the way you put it.
But they beat all their bad teams. We beat all of ours too but did lose to some mediocre teams and I’m not sure MSU did. They lost to three solid tourney teams, one twice.
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@wissox Another stat that is on the team sheets is average RPI win and average RPI loss. What we have been talking about is exactly Michigan State.
- Average RPI Win Rank: 151
- Average RPI Loss Rank: 13
Exactly what we were talking about. You mentioned they played really good teams early in the season. And they lost those games. Ala, the RPI rank when they lost. But then, you see the flip side. Their wins at 151. What a weird season and schedule from Izzo.
I do think the Big 10 was disrespected this season and that hurts them a lot. We will see though. I wouldn’t want to face any of the Big 10 teams that made it.
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As per Jeff Sagarin KU Strength of schedule is #7, Michigan State is #69, according to KenPom #8 and #62…not close at all. KU does have a strong SOS, Michigan State does not. As I indicated before, it would not surprise me to see MSU as a 3 or even 4 seed; the price you pay for playing in a weak conference and a soft schedule. Nebraska is in the same boat and might not even make it to the tournament.
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Printed brackets are overrated. Go to a digital schedule that resets automatically.
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Interesting that most still have OSU out after they beat us Saturday, I personally think the loser of the OU OSU game Wednesday should be out. How OU is safely in at a 10 currently tho they spilt the season series with OSU while having the same conference record coupled with more bad losses.
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OU is in because Trae Young, first half of the season Trae Young that is, is a big draw, without him they are out.
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@JayHawkFanToo yep all about he viewership
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wissox said:
@BeddieKU23 the early season Spartans yes. Lately not sure but in a season of losses piling up for so many I still am struggling with the possibility of them being a three seed. Of course two years ago I thought they got screwed by being given the two seed and then they lose to mid tenn so who knows!
By the way the Big 14 really screwed themselves up by expanding. You’re right about that and then they go out and play their tourney in two east coast locales the last two years.
The Spartans are an interesting team. NBA talent, NBA size, elite coach. You don’t get 29 wins without being good. We’ve seen the good & bad of Michigan St in one recent game against Northwestern in which they were down 20+ at half and came back to win improbably.
Early season Sparty looked good as you mentioned, I suppose their biggest wins of the season were the B2B wins against UNC & Notre Dame. After that their best win is? Home by 3 points against Purdue was probably the last big impression they left . I’ve watched about 10 Michigan St games this season including the recent one’s and I don’t see a team that is playing better then a #3 seed. I see some individuals that look as if they are thinking ahead towards the next level. Besides having Jaren Jackson this is the same team that KU beat down in the 2nd round last year.
People that see their gaudy record might think a #3 seed is low for a team like Michigan St. If the committee follows through with the principles in seeding teams Spartan Nation will be happy to have a #3 seed because the schedule is dreadful. I think the AD for MSU has some work to do to clean up how they schedule.
I also think for comparison there are people looking at KU possibly being a #1 seed with 7 losses as outrageous. If its all about wins and losses I’d agree, 7 losses is a lot to reward a team a high seed. If they win the Big-12 tourney and get a #1 seed it will tie the record for the most losses given to a 1 seed in NCAA Tournament History. In a normal year KU would be lucky to stay on the #2 line. As we all know by now this isn’t a typical year in CBall. KU just has a really good resume that’s going to give them an edge with the committee, maybe even inflating their true seed line. I’ve seen some bracket sites listing KU as an over-seeded team. Our non-conference didn’t seem all that difficult on paper and the Big-12 didn’t look like it was going to have 7-8 tournament worthy teams but both have given KU a resume that’s as good as any in the country. What’s better the gaudy record or better resume?
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kjayhawks said:
Interesting that most still have OSU out after they beat us Saturday, I personally think the loser of the OU OSU game Wednesday should be out. How OU is safely in at a 10 currently tho they spilt the season series with OSU while having the same conference record coupled with more bad losses.
I agree. Oklahoma St has 6 wins against ranked teams. Must be their non-conference weighting heavily against them right now.
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Saint Mary’s lost in the semi’s to BYU. Saint Mary’s didn’t help themselves with seeding at all. A great record without great wins except @ Gonzaga.
BYU can steal a bid tonight against Gonzaga. Yoeli Childs went nuts last night scoring 33. Will have to do it again if they think they can beat Zaga. Zags won both meetings pretty comfortably during the regular season.
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Two more teams got in last night. Iona won the MAAC & UNC Greensboro won the Southern.
UNCG is an interesting team, won 27 games. They beat NC St who’s likely in and only gave up 60 to Virginia. Kenpom’s 31st ranked defense FYI which is 15 spots better then KU. Francis Alonso can really shoot the rock, over 100 3’s on the year.
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Tonight the Horizon League, CAA, Northeast, WCC & Summit League all have their finals.
South Dakota & South Dakota St battle for the 1 bid with their combined 53-13 records. We crushed South Dakota St in Allen earlier this year. South Dakota dropped close games to TCU & UCLA in non-conference. The loser will not dance…Should be a good one.
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@BeddieKU23 It seems that the opinion of KU and the quality of the wins again relies on the opinion of the quality of the Big 12. I mean, who did we beat in the non-con? Not one team in the top 25 as far as I can tell. Syracuse, TAM, UK all have had down or disappointing seasons. And we lost to UW and ASU who have slid back. They’re not even getting votes. The inflated value of the Big 12 is puzzling. I think we should slide into the two seed, and that fits our season about right.
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HighEliteMajor said:
@BeddieKU23 It seems that the opinion of KU and the quality of the wins again relies on the opinion of the quality of the Big 12. I mean, who did we beat in the non-con? Not one team in the top 25 as far as I can tell. Syracuse, TAM, UK all have had down or disappointing seasons. And we lost to UW and ASU who have slid back. They’re not even getting votes. The inflated value of the Big 12 is puzzling. I think we should slide into the two seed, and that fits our season about right.
The non-conference certainly wasn’t daunting. It’s ranked 22nd according to the RPI. We just minimized playing bad teams, only 4 outside the Top 100. Smart scheduling, KU knows what it takes to keep itself at the top.
The inflated value of the Big-12 can be attributed to the Round Robin Schedule. Teams get 2 cracks at KU, its the only reason Oklahoma St is even on the bubble line right now. So either the Big-12 conference is a genius for keeping at 10 teams or its just luck really. It’s helping the bubble Big-12 teams stay afloat. Just Iowa St having a bad season makes the conference look strong top to bottom and the middle is so cluttered you don’t even know who’s really any good.
However their are some atrocious Power 5 teams in the ACC, Pac-12, Big-10 & SEC so just because those conferences have strength in numbers doesn’t make them any better. Pitt didn’t even win a conference game. The bottom 4 in the Big-10 barely combined to win more conference games then KU did. About 50 mid-major schools could have beaten Cal this season. 8 teams in the SEC were 500 or less in conference play.
If we throw tournament success into the mix then of course the Big-12’s regular season success becomes a mute point. Not much we can do as fans, we hope KU wins the championship and the rest of the league does well to validate the conference overall.
I think more important if we are talking KU is did the 2017-2018 schedule prepare us for March? I think we are battle tested, we have no misconceptions of what this team is. Even if we are a #1 seed or a #2 seed I think most of the fan base knows this team will have to play its best ball to win every game after round 1. If we don’t we go home to a long and sulky off-season full of who’s leaving, transfer talk, recruiting, lineup projections that only carry us so far.
Our leaders have to shine bright now. This team goes as far as Devonte & Self can carry them.
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@HighEliteMajor 8 of the 13 non-con games were quadrant 1 or quadrant 2 games. SDSU was a great schedule. A Quadrant 2 home game.
Self and his staff have mastered the art of building a schedule that sets us up for situations like this. A 7 loss team still apparently in the drivers seat for the 4th #1 seed or the 1st #2 seed is a little bit crazy.
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Lunardi (thankfully never accurate) has #6 Gonzaga as a 5 seed in KU’s bracket and preseason #1 Arizona as KU’s 4 seed. Gonzaga as a 5 is grossly underseeded. Arizona is about right, but a tough draw with Ayton playing like he is. MSU and UNC as the 2/3 so get to the elite eight and it’s a more favorable matchup.
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@dylans Of the ones Lunardi has on the 4/5 line, I would like to avoid Florida, Ohio State and Wichita State at all costs. So I am ok with the current bracket. I think Doke could dominate the Gonzaga game, and I think he is about one of the only players that could hang with Ayton. Arizona is also a terrible Defensive team. The combo of Doke being able to guard Ayton combining with how poorly UA plays defensively is the type of matchup I like for us.
I would put Arizona on upset alert opening weekend tbh. Can’t play D. They get matched up with a slow-paced, defensive oriented team, and they will find themselves in a dog-fight. SDSU would give UA a run for their money.
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@Kcmatt7 I was just preparing my we got screwed in the bracket speech.
Match-ups matter more to this team than the last two years. If their guards can pressure our guards 10ft beyond the 3pt line we’re screwed.
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@BeddieKU23 @Kcmatt7 I have to admit, I need to look at the seeding criteria. You two seem to really be on top of this. And our coach is obviously on top of it.
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@dylans Lol exactly.
I’m hoping for the path of least resistance. Literally! At this point, I think our best chance to advance far is to play less athletic teams, and poor defensive teams.
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@HighEliteMajor Well they actually came out and defined a lot of things this year with the quadrants. And after the first bracket release, it looked as if they were actually following the said criteria.
They also make the “team sheets” readily available with the info on them which is super convenient when looking at brackets.
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dylans said:
Lunardi (thankfully never accurate) has #6 Gonzaga as a 5 seed in KU’s bracket and preseason #1 Arizona as KU’s 4 seed. Gonzaga as a 5 is grossly underseeded. Arizona is about right, but a tough draw with Ayton playing like he is. MSU and UNC as the 2/3 so get to the elite eight and it’s a more favorable matchup.
Unfortunately Gonzaga is seeded correctly I think. They might be more talented then a #5 seed and they have a great record (could be 30-4 after tonight) however playing in the WCC continues to do them no favors when their non-conference schedule doesn’t give them enough quality wins to overcome the conference they play in.
I saw recently they were in some preliminary talks about joining the Mountain West which would improve their metrics a bit. I think its time Gonzaga moved up, similar to what Wichita St just did this year. The talent Few is bringing in and developing is simply better then the competition they are playing.
Gonzaga in the non-conference beat Ohio St (before they got better) lost to Florida in 2OT, beat Texas in OT, beat Creighton who was #25 at the time, was crushed by Villanova, and crushed Washington (the game after KU lost to them in the Sprint Center). They split the H2H with Saint Mary’s who’s in a similar position, having a lot of wins but not a ton of quality wins.
I tend to think this Gonzaga squad is a bit underrated. They returned guys who contributed to last years F4 run which I think is important for them going anywhere. I would welcome the challenge playing them though, I think we would matchup okay with them
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@BeddieKU23 Gonzaga and St Marys need to move up in basketball. Do they even field football teams? So that’s a consideration for w/e conference they want to join.
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@dylans The Achilles Heal for this team was supposed to be depth, but I agree with you that we really struggle with teams that pressure the guards all the way out. We have a lot of trouble getting into any offense at all.
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dylans said:
@Kcmatt7 I was just preparing my we got screwed in the bracket speech.
Everyone here has their speech ready to go!
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Speaking of St. Mary’s, and Wichita, and MSU, this guy has us as a 1 seed and potential 2nd round against St. Marys, 3rd round with WSU, and either Duke or MSU as elite 8 competition. It’s been 3 long years since Duke has won a championship so the powers that be will be affecting the whistle in that elite 8 matchup I’m sure. I don’t think a team west of the Appalachians is going to win a championship ever again!
Here’s the link which I forgot in the original post. http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/college/ct-spt-ncaa-tournament-bracketology-20180305-story.html
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wissox said:
Speaking of St. Mary’s, and Wichita, and MSU, this guy has us as a 1 seed and potential 2nd round against St. Marys, 3rd round with WSU, and either Duke or MSU as elite 8 competition. It’s been 3 long years since Duke has won a championship so the powers that be will be affecting the whistle in that elite 8 matchup I’m sure. I don’t think a team west of the Appalachians is going to win a championship ever again!
Here’s the link which I forgot in the original post. http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/college/ct-spt-ncaa-tournament-bracketology-20180305-story.html
Wouldn’t mind St Mary’s as a 2nd round opponent. Londale is one of America’s best bigs and would be a good matchup for Doke/Mitch/Silvio. Their defense is ranked about 80 spots below KU’s so we’d have a really good chance of scoring on them.
Not an athletic team either which would favor KU even more
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@wissox Those 7,8,9 and 10s from non P5 schools are so much scarier than the p5 schools on those lines.
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Very few major programs have strong non-con schedules anymore. Unless you play another big school in one of the early season resort tournaments or like the one with Duke, KU and MSU, the chances of playing other major programs are slim. Major programs want to pad their records and small programs are willing to travel and take a pounding for a paycheck. I believe there is small program that played the first 20 games on the road and the paychecks funded the entire athletic department.
Computers rankings look strictly at numbers and don’t usually play favorites and they unanimously have the Big 12 as the top ranked conference.
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@JayHawkFanToo You could probably argue that we’re the top ranked conference because of the bottom of the conference. I wouldn’t call the top of our conference anything to get all excited about although OU, TTU and WVU have all had good moments this year.
If you could and if you have time, pull up the team that had the top ranked schedule and lets look at their opponents. It’d be interesting to see.
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Conferences are ranked based on the strengths of all team not just the ones at the top. KU, OU, TTU, WVU and I believe TCU have all been ranked in the top 10 at some point and Baylor and Texas have been in the top 20 with KSU also getting votes, so it is not like the conference does not have good teams. You can put the Golden State Warriors on the Big 10 and the conference would still not be good overall. I know you are a Big 10 fan but the conference is very weak overall this season and will likely end up with 4 out of 14 teams in the tournament while the Big 12 might have an historic 8 out of 10 teams.
I read where one of the better known analyst wrote…would you really like to have a Big 12 team, any team including ISU or OSU as your first opponent in the tournament? The answer was no…about what other conference can you say the same thing?
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According to the RPI, North Carolina has the #1 schedule of strength in the country. I didn’t include teams they played outside the Top 100 which was 8
Wins (RPI 1-50)
RPI DATE OPPONENT SCORE
29 Nov. 24 Arkansas* 87-68
13 Nov. 29 Michigan 86-71
9 Dec. 17 @ Tennessee 78-73
21 Dec. 23 Ohio State* 86-72
11 Jan. 16 Clemson 87-79
4 Feb. 8 Duke 82-78
46 Feb. 17 @ Louisville 93-76
37 Feb. 21 @ Syracuse 78-74
Wins (RPI 51-100)
RPI DATE OPPONENT SCORE
90 Nov. 15 Bucknell 93-81
72 Nov. 20 @ Stanford 96-72
78 Dec. 1 @ Davidson 85-75
97 Jan. 9 Boston College 96-66
65 Jan. 13 @ Notre Dame 69-68
52 Feb. 10 @ NC State 96-89
65 Feb. 12 Notre Dame 83-66
Losses (RPI 1-50)
RPI DATE OPPONENT SCORE
15 Nov. 26 Michigan State* 45-63
43 Jan. 3 @ Florida State 80-81
1 Jan. 6 @ Virginia 49-61
47 Jan. 22 @ Virginia Tech 69-80
11 Jan. 30 @ Clemson 78-82
25 Feb. 27 Miami 88-91
4 Mar. 3 @ Duke 64-74
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@JayHawkFanToo But given our conference’s history in the dance during these seasons where we’re the top ranked conference it doesn’t look like it after the first weekend of the tournament, so I guess, just to be the devil’s advocate, I guess teams might be saying sure, we’d love to play the big 12 in the madness of march. Of course two years ago, we’re within a last minute meltdown against 'Nova to having two Big12 teams playing each other in the FF and of course one of them in the finals, but that season is an anomaly right now rather than the rule.
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@BeddieKU23 Thanks Beddie! Pretty good list of teams there, but it also illustrates the reason why KU would benefit by having a tougher top half of the league.
