NO WAY WE LOSE 6
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We WILL lose 3 seniors. I look at the mock draft and think to myself out of the remaining KU roster maybe ONE guy jumps into the first round? Maybe? Newman could but he is projected 57 in the 2019 draft on one website. Doke? I cant seem to find him on any draft boards (I am sure there are a few) but he could make the jump sure! Preston? Sure, why not? I just don’t see any of them throwing their hat in for a non guaranteed contract in the second round? Vick has been on some draft boards too. But losing 6 would be a stretch unless we are talking about UK where its like “you are being replaced if you don’t leave”.
I think we are primed for a HUGE season in 2018-2019! KU will return almost ALL of its NON SENIORS! Add in our transfers and a couple blue chip recruits and BAM!!! We Will be loaded!
I can dream right?
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Probably not happening but I like your thinking @Statmachine . I agree that Self won’t push any of them out. I think Preston and Newman are locks to leave, and Doke is close to a lock. Vick I feel could definitely stay. Jmo.
KU only has two SRs on scholarship btw, Graham and Svi. Hard to really count Clay Young.
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@Statmachine I hear you. As much as I love these talented kids, and the NBA drafts on potential, it’s hard to imagine Dok or Vick jumping early. One more year for both at KU would do the trick though (wishful thinking?)
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2018-2019 will be major rebuilding, the biggest since 09 when we replaced all 5 guys. Obviously we lose Svi and DG to graduation. Newman is all but a lock to go, Doke is gone no question IMO and I would say Preston has a good chance to go. I think we will return only 2 guys that see the court more than a few minutes a game with Vick and Lightfoot.
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Let’s see if there’s an alpha dog attitude across this bunch that refuses to lose. If there is, then we could have a pretty good squad. Winning will make everyone look better at draft time.
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@kjayhawks I think doke will go solely based on preventing further injuries!
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kjayhawks said:
2018-2019 will be major rebuilding, the biggest since 09 when we replaced at 5 guys. Obviously we lose Svi and DG to graduation. Newman is all but a lock to go, Doke is gone no question IMO and I would say Preston has a good chance to go. I think we will return only 2 guys that see the court more than a few minutes a game with Vick and Lightfoot.
Self is telling recruits Preston is leaving. In fact McCormack mentioned it. Now, things can change, but we certainly know what the plan is.
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@Statmachine Who’s the 3rd senior? I thought KU was down to 2 after Whitman left.
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I could see KU losing 5 thus year. I just don’t see Vick leaving after this year. It’s not because he won’t be good enough to, but his draft stock should peak after his senior season when he’ll be the man.
Vick will at best be the 4th option behind Graham, Newman, and Doke and possibly even the 5th or 6th option behind Preston and Svi. Next year, he’ll be the #1 option regardless of who else stays or who else KU signs.
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5 seems like middle ground. I really hope Vick and Doke stay after this year but I think the former is more likely then the latter. We’ll see I still think we see a big year out of Vick now with the lack of post options which will make his decision to stay or go that much harder. Self is definitely going to bring in a flux of elite talent. A Dotson/Grimes backcourt with potentially 2 Zion’s on the wing, De Sousa on the block and possibly Big Dave! That’s a heck of a haul if he can pull it off
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I do not think Vick is going to hang around if we win the Zion sweepstakes.
I think Doke is about our only hope for a returning starter. And that is a stretch. I think we lose 6, but only because we are going to get a monster haul recruiting.
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@Kcmatt7 They all leave. It happens after Final 4 runs and titles.
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Texas Hawk 10 said:
@Statmachine Who’s the 3rd senior? I thought KU was down to 2 after Whitman left.
I mentioned this earlier. Maybe he meant Clay Young?
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Kcmatt7 said:
I do not think Vick is going to hang around if we win the Zion sweepstakes.
Ding ding ding!
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Kcmatt7 said:
I do not think Vick is going to hang around if we win the Zion sweepstakes.
I think Doke is about our only hope for a returning starter. And that is a stretch. I think we lose 6, but only because we are going to get a monster haul recruiting.
Well said, agree on all points.
The Catch 22 for KU is we may have an all-time great recruiting haul but its at the expense of our top 6 players leaving the team.
I cannot even wrap my head around the chance that Zion lands at KU just yet. He’s a superstar that is a program enhancer. I’ve been high on Vick from the day he announced here but if Vick leaves because of Zion signing here this reminds me of the debate about Wayne Selden vs Josh Jackson. The impact that Zion will have at KU both on and off the court cannot be compared
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@BeddieKU23 little side note on Zion had to laugh, a poster from the LJW said Zion was over hyped. - - -WHAAAAAAAAAAA? I had to respond, not sure where your getting that from - -Zion is an absolute stud, some people there also have conception we still got a good chance with Bol, Bol. - -not really sure where these people have been living - -under a rock? - -Bol’s ship sailed along time ago . - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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If there was something to back the claim of “overhyped” then I would be able to understand why someone would say that.
He is being overhyped to some extent because there are comparisons to some really good players being thrown around like Lebron, Larry Johnson, Charles Barkley which I’ve seen associated with him.
Athletically and physically he’s a rare specimen. I think he is a skilled player at this point that is continuing to improve his outside shot as well as other aspects of his game like not depending on going left all the time.
These type of kids don’t come around very often and I’m just hoping KU gets lucky enough to have him on the team.
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@BeddieKU23 I hope Vick would see that playing with (and practicing against) Zion would likely make Vick better–and bring a helluva lot more attention to the program and all the players.
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Overhyped? Maybe, but he’s still reaaaaally good which is what matters.
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I think we’re seeing Self shift more towards having a big wing play the stretch 4. Even looking at what KU currently has and what KU is projected to have next year, KU is going to have a stretch 4 with a big body anchoring the paint next year. He’s building his team to spread the floor and attack or get open 3’s. We’re seeing Self being highly influenced by Hoiberg and Jay Wright with the 4 guard offense. This is also where the NBA is going too with spreading the floor and having a 4 that is more perimeter oriented than a traditional post player like in the past. If KU lands Zion Williamson, I really wouldn’t be shocked if Self is pitching him that he’ll be used similarly to how Self used Josh Jackson as a stretch 4. If that’s how Self is pitching Zion, then it wouldn’t impact Vick much in 2018 and would probably be pitched to Vick as them being used like Frank and Josh were.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 Started with Perry imo. Self pretty much changed the offense for Perry. From what I could tell.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 But if we land Grimes or Langford, all of a sudden we are talking about multiple guys needing minutes. And Zion needs to play both the 3 and the 4, which is what I’m sure coach is pitching. When we are already Wing heavy.
So we are talking about:
- PG - Dotson/Moore
- SG- Grimes/Dotson
- SF- Grimes/Zion/Vick/Garrett
- PF- Zion/De Sousa/ Lightfoot/KJ Lawson/Garrett
- C - Dedric Lawson/ De Sousa
That is a lot of guys to spread minutes around to. If you’re Vick’s camp, that doesn’t look great for you when you can leave a year early and still have “upside.”
And, it really makes it look like Vick wouldn’t be the featured player like you stated earlier. In fact, it looks more like he would be the 3rd or 4th, maybe 5th option after Dedric, Zion and Grimes for sure. Dotson may even be a guy who we go to before Vick.
If De Sousa thinks he is going to be a OAD, Self must be selling him that he will have plenty of PT at the 4 spot or be the first backup big if Doke stays and get 25ish minutes per game. Really meaning that Zion will get most of his minutes at the 3. Grimes added to the equation means minutes at the 2 are going to be a fight, especially when we know HCBS really likes to play two ball handlers so Moore, Dotson and Grimes will fill the majority of minutes at those two positions.
You are correct in saying that Bill is at the very least open to playing an outside-in game now though. And I do think Zion will get some minutes at the 4.
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@Kcmatt7 KU’s not landing Langford period, he’s going to be a Louisville commit. All these recruits love to about being package deals, but it doesn’t usually pan out. KU probably signs Grimes, doesn’t impact Vick unless Newman stays.
I think KU’s class ends up De Sousa, Zion Williamson, Grimes, Dotson, and 1 or 2 development players.
I also think your position breakdown is pretty off on some players. Moore is the only back court player locked into a single position because of size. Dotson and Grimes can play both guard spots. Marcus Garrett is another guy that can play multiple positions as he can play the 1-3 spots. Vick is a 2-3 combo guy. Cunliffe, KJ Lawson, and Zion Williamson are all 3-4 guys, and Lightfoot might be in that category as well or he could be exclusively a stretch 4. Dedric Lawson and De Sousa are both exclusively low post players.
Self could trot out a line up of Moore, Grimes, Vick, Williamson, and Lawson and after a couple of subs the line up could be Dotson, Vick, Williamson, KJ, Dedric. With what we know KU will have in the front court next year, Marcus Garrett will not see a single minute at the 4 spot in 2017-18.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 It would be an incredible class and…the crazy thing is it’s within reach/possible.
Agree on positions for the most part. Basically the only disagreement is that I will believe Garrett at the PG when it happens. The rest, definitely on the same page.
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Also I would classify McCormack as developmental, idk if you do or not.
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@BShark I believe Garrett was classified as a PG on all the recruiting sites so the skill set is there. I do think we’ll see him at PG on occasion this year because of the lack of depth. I think the most common scenario will be end game situations in blow outs when Self empties the bench, but with only 3 walk ons, 2 of the scholarship guys are going to have to play as well.
I think our end game blow out line up is probably going to be Garrett at the 1, Teahan and Clay Young at the 2-3 spots, and Lightfoot and Preston in the front court. Insert Cunliffe for Preston once he’s eligible, but that’s going to be the garbage time line up because that who’s available at the bottom of KU’s active roster this year.
Other than that, I think we could see Garrett run the show some when he’s playing next to Newman and Vick as well because he’s the best PG out of that bunch. Graham will always run the show when he’s in and Newman is much better suited off ball than on ball so I could see Self let Garrett run the show while Graham’s on the bench.
In 2018-19, if KU lands both Grimes and Dotson, then there’s no way Garrett sees a minute at the PG that year, but like I said, I think we see Garrett at the PG spot some this year out of necessity more than anything else. If he does well, that would be huge to afford Self the ability to sit Graham some and not have him playing 35+ mpg this year like I’m guessing most of us assume will happen. Developing Garrett as a PG so Graham can be closer to 32 mpg this year would be huge for KU in March this season so that Graham isn’t playing on dead legs in the tournament when we already know that’s an issue for him.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 That is still a TON of mouths to feed. I’m not sure that Vick wants to spend a 4th year only getting about 25 mpg and not being a featured player.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 He was and I agree it would be ideal to not play Graham 1 million minutes a game and limit Newman’s time at PG.
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@Kcmatt7 Lagerald Vick would absolutely be the featured guy along with Zion Williamson. None of the guys KU is likely to land out of the 2018 class are OAD caliber outside of Zion Williamson. Grimes, Dotson, De Sousa are all going to be multiyear players. I think you’re over rating how good some of these freshmen are going to be early on.
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1-4 Position Players:
- KJ - 0 MPG?
- Vick - 25 MPG
- Dotson - 30 MPG
- Grimes - 30 MPG
- Cunliffe - 0 MPG?
- Williamson - 30 MPG
- Garrett - 10 MPG?
- Lightfoot - 15 MPG?
- Moore - 20 MPG?
So we won’t play Cunliffe or KJ? And, if we do at all, that eats away minutes. And I personally think that Garrett will be playing quite a bit by the end of this season. He will have earned more than 10 minutes probably. Do we think that KJ will be ok without playing at least 20 minutes a game? I mean we do want his brother and cousin to come here so his playing time direct effects recruiting. I assume he will at least get some PT.
And then you would only be splitting the 5 spot 2 ways with:
- Dedric - 30 MPG
- De Sousa - 10 MPG?
Ok so De Sousa will probably play more than 10 MPG, if we are to assume he is college ready. So that eats into the 4. Self usually plays 2 pgs, but even if he only overlaps them 10 MPG that is 10 minutes eating away at the 2 spot. Not to mention that Bill usually plays his starting PGs closer to 35 mpg. So that is another 5 minutes eaten up.
It is crowded enough that if I were Vick I would be gone. I would play my ass off this season and be gone. Staying an extra year to compete against 5 other guys for PT on what will be a NC level team regardless of if he stays or not, isn’t that enticing if I’m him. Especially if we have a FF type of season this year.
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De Sousa sounds like he wants to be OAD, but isn’t locked into it. Dotson and Grimes are definitely 2+ year players. They will be okay next year but with time in the program will be an absolute load to handle. Hope KU gets both for sure.
@Kcmatt7 We will see what happens if in fact KU signs all these players but I would assume Cunliffe will be unhappy. KJ should get post minutes ahead of Lightfoot. Just my guess.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 I think you are overrating Vick. He can shoot and play D. But he doesn’t handle the ball well or create his own shot. What is there to feature?
Even if Dotson is as good as a Sophomore DG, that is a guy playing 32.6 MPG. Even if Grimes is Freshmen Wayne Selden or B-Mac he is playing 30 MPG. Wiggins played 32 mpg and Josh played 30 MPG despite having horrible foul problems so you KNOW Williamson would be playing 30+ mpg. If De Sousa is as good right now as Jamari Traylor was his Sophomore year, he will play 15 MPG.
My point isn’t even that Vick is a this or that or even how much PT he would get. My point is that why stay here and fight for PT at all when his draft stock can really only improve marginally at this juncture, unless he completely dominates. And I personally don’t see any skillset from Vick that tells me he is going to be able to score well enough or create his own shot well enough that his draft stock jumps through the roof. At least not if he has as good of a year this year as I think he will have.
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@Kcmatt7 Again, I think you’re majorly over estimating how many minutes Grimes and Dotson will play if they come here. And yes, players who probably deserve more minutes will see their minutes majorly limited when Self finalizes the rotation in 2018-19 season if KU lands everyone their targeting. That’s what happens when you have a lot of good players and not enough rotation spots to play everyone.
As far as the 1-3 spots go, I think it would be Garrett, Grimes, Moore, and Vick getting the bulk of the 120 minutes. I think Dotson is probably the one who would be squeezed when the rotation gets cut. As for the 4 and 5 spots, Dedric and De Sousa are going to lock down the low post. De Sousa is still pretty raw so I wouldn’t be shocked if he only plays 10-15 mpg. I think Zion and probably KJ handle the rest of the minutes at the 4 spot. There could be some crossover between the 3 and 4 spots when KU needs to go big, but I think that this would be the basic breakdown of a finalized rotation. So I think it would be Dotson, Cunliffe, and Lightfoot that get phased out when the rotation is reduced. Again, good players, but that’s the nature of the beast when you have more good players than rotation spots available.
If KU loses out on the other 2 Lawson’s because KJ isn’t good enough to play rotation level minutes in 2018-19, then we probably don’t need them that badly. If they expect minutes to be given instead of earned, I don’t want them and KU doesn’t need them that badly.
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@Kcmatt7 Don’t forget that Chandler Lawson plays the same spot KJ does so they would be in direct competition if Chandler came here in the first place.
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@BShark De Sousa will still eat away at the 4 spot some. At least I would assume so. Preston ranks similarly and he is going to start. Bill prefers to at least start 2 posts if he has the bodies to do it.
And even if Dotson and Grimes are multi-year guys, they are going to have to be integral parts of next year’s team. They are going to get minutes and are being sold on starter roles.
I’m just making my case of why I think Vick is as good as gone if we land Zion.
No Zion and Vick is a very important piece to have. Landing Zion kind of takes the sales out. Not that Vick wouldn’t be a great player to have and really help us to reek havoc on D, but there is just more reasons for him to go.
I think Doke is the most likely to stay. If he stays, he plays as many minutes as he can handle. And between him and Dedric, our post D and rebounding would be the best in the country.
NBA scouts really just want to see if Doke can learn some basketball skill. He might not have any this season, and still dominate at the college level. And then advise him to return to KU and continue to work on things like footwork and free throw shooting. The NBA scouts really just want to see if you can take a next step and continue to improve. If Doke is just going to be a big ogre and not learn how to actually play the game, they won’t waste their time on him. That is why I think he is the most likely to be back.
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I think De Sousa will be 20-25 mpg barring anything crazy either way.
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I like Dotson’s game more that Moore and I think Moore is a back-up guy but obviously Dotson hasn’t proven himself at the D1 level yet.
@Kcmatt7 I agree entirely about Vick, hope I didn’t imply otherwise. He would make the most sense because he can realistically go, unlike KJ or Cunliffe.
I’d LOVE for Doke to stay. If we see McCormack sign with KU I think that means Doke is gone.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 What does Vick have to gain by coming back?
Because, how I see it, he projects out to a 13 ppg player if given more minutes and a few more shot attempts per game. And right now, the view is he has a lot more upside. But if he doesn’t, and comes back, he screws himself pretty hard. Or if he ISN’T a featured guy because Williamson and Lawson are so dominant that he stays as a 3rd option he will lose that “upside” trait.
Those are the risks he takes by coming back. Instead of being an intriguing player on a very good FF team.
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This sure beats the how does Self even fill the roster discussions.
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@BShark This must be how it feels to be a Kentucky fan.
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@Kcmatt7 Lagerald Vick is going to be at best the 4th scoring option this year and possibly the 5th or 6th option. He’s going to be behind Graham, Newman, or Azubuike this year and he may not even be ahead of Preston either.
Next year, Vick is at worst the 2nd option and more than likely the 1st option. Right now, Vick is a projected late second round pick and will probably drop as his production likely won’t be there this year because of the others around him. He comes back, even with Zion Williamson next to him, Vick is still a featured player in a dynamic duo like Mason/Jackson, Graham/Newman and that will boost his draft stock into the 1st round since he has good size for an NBA 2. He may not be a lottery pick, but he can absolutely be a mid to late 1st round pick.
If Vick goes this year, it’s a repeat of Wayne Selden who didn’t get drafted and got lucky to catch on and Vick may not get that lucky and may end up in Europe.
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Here’s another way to look at it. How much experience would KU have in 2018-19 without Lagerald Vick back? Garrett, Lightfoot, and Cunliffe would be the only guys to have played meaningful minutes at KU if Vick is gone and that may not even be true of Cunliffe. That version of the team would also not have a single senior on scholarship. That’s not a roster composition that equals a national title. Lagerald Vick is the key to the 2018-19 team being national title contenders.
When you try to ignore what class those guys are in, that’s what makes your minutes projection off. How long has Bill Self been the coach at KU and @Kcmatt7 you still don’t remember that Self values experience over all else when it comes to minutes distribution. How much has Brady and EJ get debated over the years, Brady won out because he had the experience. Or how about when Landen Lucas finally won the 5 spot? That happened because his teammates trusted him over a younger more talented player.
How many times in the NCAA tournament have we seen less talented, but more experienced players make freshmen star players look silly? Lagerald Vick may not have the highest ceiling of who else would be on the team next year, but he would be the only senior and the undisputed leader of that team and as such, he would also be the face of the program and the featured player in the program in 2018-19 regardless of Zion Williamson or any other member of the 2018 recruiting class coming to Lawrence.
How did KU do in the NCAA tournament and regular season in the 2 years Self has had to replace all 5 starters? KU might have won the Big 12 each season (thanks to Blake Griffin’s concussion in 2009), but they lost in the Sweet 16 and Round of 32 in those two seasons and lost 8 and 10 games respectively which are 3rd most and most losses KU has had in a season in the Bill Self era. That’s the type of season KU is headed for if Lagerald Vick leaves after this season.
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nba scouts were really high on vick during the camp he went to this summer.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 Agree to disagree. You think a lot more of Vick than I do.
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Vick is going to have a big year. How big I don’t know but I have no doubt we’ll see more consistency with him this season. It’s natural to expect him to be even better going into year 2 of being apart of the rotation/starting lineup. He’s the one wing/guard that is going to be asked upon to step up and fill different roles that departed with last years team. This should be the year the potential turns into production. If he’s not a double digit scorer this year I’ll be shocked and I’ll be shocked if he’s not a combine invite as well as saying I bet he’s a combine riser when its all said and done. Big year for him. If he’s still not consistent enough like Devonte’s Jr year then he comes back and is the leader of the squad the next year. A great problem to have if you ask me
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I think Vick is going to be the x-factor. The other guys are going to draw a lot of attention from teams. That will leave Vick in a position to exploit mismatches and gaps in the defense if he can see them quickly enough. And his athleticism is so great that he will punish those who think they can recover from a hedge.
IMHO, Vick will be an NBA player. If he gets the right opportunity, he’ll be better than people think.
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For the record, I think Vick is going to make an NBA roster. I think he can be a guy like McCaw for the Warriors. I just don’t ever think he will be a guy who carries a team by himself. He can’t create his own shot well enough. But he can play good D, finish in transition and hit the open 3. Guys like Vick are the difference between winning championships and not.
I think Vick would be dumb to return for his senior year when he still would have upside most players aren’t looked at as having their Junior years. Especially after he shoots better and plays better D. I think he will play himself into the end of the first or early 2nd round this season. I personally don’t see his stock climbing any higher than that, even with a very good Senior season. He would have to have a Denzel Valentine type of season where he is amazingly efficient on offense to even think about climbing higher than the end of the first/early 2nd. I don’t see that happening for Vick, or him even having the touches to do such a thing if we land the monster class it looks like we will land. Because of this, and sticking to the topic of the thread, I think that Vick will leave meaning we will lose 6 players.
