FBI's chance(%) of winning for KU Football
SEMO (91) Central Michigan (49.8) at Ohio (35.5) West Virginia (21.9) Texas Tech (26.7) at Iowa State (19.7) at TCU (3.8) Kansas State (12.4) Baylor (14.5) at Texas (5.2) Oklahoma (2.5) at Oklahoma State (5.5)
Some are a little laughable, maybe most IMO. Less than a 50/50 shot to win against an FBS opponent? Less than 20% to beat ISU and less than 4% to beat TCU, a team we have played close every year since they joined the league? Get outta here. Still to early for my predictions but goodness.
As painful as those percentages are, it just shows how far KU football has to go to even be perceived as competitive. I like all the positive statements about the progress our program is making in all areas, including recruiting. But the rubber meets the road on Sept. 2 and we’ll see if the positive changes result in more wins this year. My optimistic hope is to be 2/0 going to Athens, Ohio on Sept. 16 and then pull a great win for Coach Beaty and team. RCJHF
Central Michigan is pretty solid. They were a bowl team last season, and they beat a very solid Ohio team last year that I think we all agree could give KU some problems since that same Ohio team beat KU in Lawrence last year by a couple of touchdowns. Given that, I don’t think its unfair that a slightly better KU team is a slight underdog to Central Michigan in Lawrence, and a more significant underdog to Ohio on the road.
KU hasn’t been good on the road in a while, so I can’t really blame anyone for not thinking they will win any road games. I think both the ISU and TCU percentages would jump by 20% or more if the games were home games for KU. This is a long rebuild, and it will take some time before the national media has any confidence in KU playing well anywhere, let alone on the road.
@stoptheflop Ya I had some KSU fans disagree but I still think KU is the biggest rebuilding projecting in the land right now. I’m not saying its bigger than KSU was but IMO its close. I realize KSU sucked for like 50 years before Snyder came along but KU has sucked about 40 of the last 50 years and I can’t find anything saying KSU start minus 25 scholarships players starting out under Snyder.
I was just about to post about the schedule. This team COULD start 6-0 going into a winnable TCU game. With a real shot to beat both KSU and Baylor at home.
I didn’t realize how favorable the schedule was when thinking about wins. Anything less than 4 wins this season and Beaty needs the burner turned up on him. We HAVE to start 3-0 this year. I don’t care Ohio is a solid team coached by a very good coach. We are a big boy program and need to win those kinds of games. And to think Central Michigan is favored blows my mind. They are picked to finish 4-8 and in the bottom of their conference.
My way too early predictions:
- SEMO - W - 55-14
- CMU - W - 35-20
- @ Ohio - W - 24-17
- WVU - W - 35-28
- TTU - W - 28-17
- @ ISU - W - 31-20
- @ TCU- L - 42-28
- KSU - L - 28-13
- BU - W - 24-17
- @ UT - L - 45-30
- OU - L - 35-20
- @ OSU - L - 42-30
Overall record - 7-5. I actually think we will only win 5 games and let a couple get away we should have won. But, if we play up to our potential, we could definitely pull off a great season and a 7-5 record.
I really, REALLY like the way the schedule falls. And I really, REALLY like this teams offensive potential. Adding another stud receiver and lineman to go with us getting back Ben Johnson AND the addition of a real offensive coordinator makes us look scary good. Now it just all depends on if Bender can actually play some football.
Last year we scored an average of 20.25 points per game. We lost by an average of 17 points per game. We had 2 losses decided by a touchdown or less. We were within a TD at halftime of the OSU game and gave KState hell in Manhattan. IF we can score closer to 25 PPG and have a longer average possession time, I think we can close our margin and stay in some games. That is where we can steal a few of them.
@Kcmatt7 I agree with most of what you have stated, if can’t average a minimum of 25 ppg this season returning what we do, I’m good with firing everyone. Defensively we have got to have our linebackers show up to the games, we beat ISU, TCU and Ohio last year if we could stop anyone from gashing us time after time in the ground game. We have some new guys and some vets at that spot, they have to come to play every week with no excuses
You know I really like were the KU football program is going. Yea it still has some ways to go. Yet this program isn’t going to be a flash in the pan. This rebuild job that David Beaty is doing. IS AWESOME. I think he’s building a machine. Will KU football be OU or Alabama? No of course not. Yet forget this team and talk about this program. KU football will be that program nobody wants to play.
Back up the Brinks trucks and pay David Beaty. Don’t let this cat get away.
Texas Hawk 10
@Kcmatt7 I like the optimism, but I think you’re a year ahead of where KU is at.
I believe the Ohio game will give the best indication of how the rest of the schedule will unfold…assuming they win the first two games, of course.
@JayHawkFanToo Well, if they don’t win the first 2, that is a good indicator, too. Either way, by game 3 we should know whether to get excited, stay mildly interested, or (for some of us) switch to our grad school alma maters (nice to have emergency alternatives).
@JayHawkFanToo @mayjay If we don’t start 3-0 a bowl is outta the question and probably winning more than 2 games with it. Ohio out played us for a quarter last year coupled with 2 costly muffle punts is why they won. We were the better team IMO most of the afternoon , no excuses not to go into that madder than hell or really any other game.
@kjayhawks Honestly, I got screwed up on trying to figure out what channel on which to watch last year (TW here changed some and dropped some) after being away until late Sept. By October when I had a chance to watch it was time to get discouraged. This year we aren’t going anywhere until after Tgiving, so I will try to follow and cheer us on!
@mayjay We have to start getting people to the stadium buddy. I try to go to a few games but I can’t make them all. We really competed well for the most part at home LY, which is important to me in regards to going to the games.
@kjayhawks Hard to get there from here deep in SEC country (SC). But if we come there in a fall trip we will go to a game–unless it is sold out, of course. My wife is much more interested in getting to Allen Field House, so that is a bigger priority!
@mayjay maybe a late pm and a fb game?
@Crimsonorblue22 2018 would be the only time we could do that (Hawaii again in Dec–for 18 days!), but we might sneak out to Lawrence this winter. Will let you know!
@mayjay oh darn!