1st Round Upsets

  • Who’s everyone got??

    Here’s what I’m thinking at the moment.

    Lowest Seeded team most likely to lose: Florida St.

    This isn’t a homer pick siding with Joe Dooley. I genuinely think FGCU is a quality team. They played UNC tough last season in the tournament so a bunch of their rotation has tourney experience. I think they are a better version of last season’s squad led by a transfer Goodwin who is a do it all guard. FGCU’s record might have been even better had their best player from last season Norelia not been injured for a good part of the season. He’s started to round back into form in the conference tourney averaging a double double there. Dooley has size, athleticism and 4 double digit scorers. The game is being played in Orlando which helps them.

    Florida St is a quality team but I think they are by far the most overrated lower seed in the entire tournament. Lots of good wins at home, dismal performances on the road. I look at how they have performed on the road as more of a true indication of how they will perform in March. January was a great month for them when they knocked off Virginia, Virginia Tech, Duke, Notre Dame, Louisville all at home. But since they are just 7-6 with lopsided losses on the road to Georgia Tech, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Duke (game was not as close as the 5 pt margin suggest). Florida St has multiple NBA players, elite athleticism and crazy size but I’ve watched a lot of their games and they are not a disciplined group, they lack toughness and teams can score on them easily. I think all that is a recipe for a 1st round upset.

    If Florida Gulf Coast beats FSU they have an excellent shot of making the Sweet 16. Assuming Maryland beats Xavier who would be scared of Trimble and a bunch of freshman? Right now I have Dooley dancing into a matchup with Arizona in San Jose.

    Some other upset possibilities.

    East Tennessee St over Florida. Florida is reeling after losing their anchor in the post Egbunu. E Tenn St is a really athletic team, I had not seen them play until their conference final which was an exciting game. TJ Comer is a player and they also start 2 guys in the post who started their careers at much better programs (Mosquera-Perea (Indiana), Tevin Glass (Wichita St). Those 2 are long athletes who can matchup with Florida’s style of play. The game is being played in Orlando which favors the Gators but I have not been sold on the Gators all season long. E Tenn St likes to score a lot and this is a team that can compete IMO.

    Middle Tennessee St over Minnesota. First Minnesota has had a great year to get here but a 5 seed? Really? The committee was on something when they seeded them. I think this could be the most likely upset outside of Wichita St (which isn’t an upset they are an opening 6.5 pt favorite).

    M Tenn St won’t sneak up on anyone this year after what they did to Michigan St last season. Coming from the conference that Memphis used to dominate, M Tenn St wasn’t challenged during the season but racked up 30 wins! Their best win is against Vanderbilt, but who didn’t beat Vanderbilt during the season (tourney high 15 losses) for an at-large team. They also lost a tough game to VCU at VCU so they have some quality again. This team features 3 really good offensive players, Jacorey Williams has re-started his career after being kicked off the Arkansas squad and is the team’s only post and leading scorer averaging 17 & 7. Giddy Potts (my favorite name in the tourney) was electric last season against Izzo and has followed up with another good year. Reggie Upshaw is the other key returning guy who had a breakout performance beating Michigan St. Whatever the line is, take Middle Tennesse St in the upset.

    Rhode Island over Creighton. We all know Creighton has stumbled since losing its star point guard with an injury. I thought they showed grit getting to the Big East finals but Villanova was too much for them again for the 3rd time. Creighton is still a good offensive team but Vulnerable here in March. Rhode Island won the Atlantic 10 and is starting to play like the pre-season top 25 team that they were projected to be. If they continue this momentum they can upset Creighton.

  • Give me Iona over Oregon (14 over 3) or Xavier over Maryland (11 over 6). Also Middle Tennessee State over Minnesota (12 over 5)

    The weaker overall at large pool means that many of the middling seeds just aren’t strong teams. I just genuinely don’t think a lot of these teams are very good.

    Iona can push the pace and Oregon is without one of their top defensive players and three point shooters. Maryland is from a very weak Big 10, while Xavier is from the Big East, likely a stronger conference this year. Minnesota another iffy Big 10 team that just may not be ready for prime time.

  • @BeddieKU23 Good analysis - agree with all of these as at least potential upsets. Would add to the mix Xavier over Maryland, which is one of the most over-seeded teams in the field and Wake Forest over Cincinnati (and yes, I would pick WF over KSU in the play-in game).

    A related question to yours - how vulnerable do folks think the B12 teams are to a first round upset? Our higher seeded teams have crashed and burned early and often in the past few years. Believe of the 4 either 14-3 or 13-4 upsets in the most recent tournaments, 3 of them have been B12 teams.

    Frankly, other than KU, I’m not highly confident with any of the B12 first round match-ups. And, although I hope it doesn’t come to pass, I could easily see KU as the only one surviving the first weekend. Even if they win their first round games, I like ND over WVU (ND is a very good ball-handling, passing team) and SMU over Baylor. I think ISU can beat Purdue, but Nevada could present a very strong first round test as they are probably under-seeded and have a couple of potential NBA guys on the team. And, I think OSU got a bad match-up for them, and even if they get by Michigan, I don’t think they have a snow-balls chance against Louisville.

  • @DCHawker

    Good questions.

    I’ll start with the Maryland/Xavier game. Xavier is a 11 seed for a reason. Maryland got a high seed (an overrated seed) how, I’m not sure? I guess finishing 2nd in the Big-10 was good enough for that seed. Maryland didn’t beat a ranked opponent all year and finished the season 5-5 in their last 10 games.

    The reason I don’t like Xavier to win is because of the injury to Edmund Sumner (their 2nd leading scorer out for the year with an injury). Without him they have been ordinary at both ends of the floor. This isn’t your typical Xavier squad that is usually dangerous coming into March. I think they are lucky to be here after salvaging a downward spiral to their season in the Big East conference tourney. Getting an 11 seed shows they were close to not making it at all.

    Maryland has overachieved all season long thanks to coaching and Trimble taking on a huge scoring load. I think they prevail because of those 2 factors. Just IMO of course, anything can happen.

    Good pick on Wake Forest, they can definitely win a game or 2. I believe every year since 2011 a First 4 team has won two tourney games (first four, regular 1st round game) so Danny definitely has a chance. It helps that he has an NBA prospect in John Collins and an excellent guard in Crawford to lead the way. Cincinnati has kind of flown under the radar all year long. Wake can compete with them, they ended the season on a good note.

    As for the Big-12 teams here’s my take on the matchups.

    I see a lot of experts picking Iowa St to go down 1st round to Nevada. I don’t see it, the Mountain West was historically down this season, Nevada wouldn’t even have been on the bubble had they not won their tourney. Cam Oliver is a solid post and Marshall has been a steady force for them all season long but I think Iowa St has too much going for them right now to lose.

    West Virginia- interesting case. They play the most ugly style of basketball known to the human eye, okay maybe not as ugly as Tony Bennett’s put you to sleep Virginia brand but you get the point. Bucknell is a team that doesn’t give up the ball a ton so immediately West Virginia’s main advantage has been downplayed. Honestly West Virginia can lose in the first round, but I’m more confident in them winning the 2nd game if they do beat Bucknell because most Likely Notre Dame only has a day to prepare for the press. I haven’t watched Bucknell- I refuse to watch them actually but I’m sure they’ll make it interesting. I didn’t expect Stephen F Austin would beat WVU last year but we all saw what happened.

    Oklahoma St/Michigan is a complete toss up. Two offensive minded teams, what gives? Michigan looks poised to continue its run, not sure Oklahoma St is coming into this game playing their best ball.

    Baylor should win its opening round. I think SMU can beat them in the 2nd round. I can’t imagine even Baylor fans feel confident Scott Drew can get them past the opening weekend. Motley will have to carry the team…

    I agree KU could be the only team that survives the 1st weekend. The next most likely team to survive would be West Virginia because they would be playing Notre Dame (most likely) off 1 day of prep and ND only has 1 true ball handler. ISU has a tough matchup with Purdue and I think Purdue prevails. The matchups for everyone outside of KU in the 2nd round were unbelievably hard. Its possible that none of them will be favored in their matchups… Time for put up or shut up time in the Big-12 again

  • @justanotherfan

    Iona is a big shocker. I don’t see it but that would really be something.

  • @BeddieKU23

    Yea, would love to see Oregon lose, but even without Boucher, they almost beat AZ in the Pac12 tourney. ESPN knucklehead Myron Medcalf actually has them winning our bracket and going to the FF. That so ain’t gonna happen, but doubt they lose to Iona.

  • @StLJhawk

    Yeah there’s no way Oregon becomes a stronger team without Boucher. I think it was easier for them to play well without him for that one game given the context of the situation. Now, days go by and Bigby-Williams and a seldom used post become part of the rotation and its clearly going to affect them. Brooks will have to shoulder even more for them.

  • This wont be popular on here but I got KSU to the sweet 16. I know most say its unlikely but DJ Johnson who was out several games in their slide is back and healthy and they play good defense, I always pick good defensive teams which doesn’t bode well for us. I’m looking to get my groove back, I usually enter 4 or 5 bracket contests and I had won 4 in a row til last year. Roy Williams owes me $1200. $500 for UNC losing last year and $700 for KU losing in 03 lol.

  • @justanotherfan I took Xavier in a couple of mine - - middle Tennessee State in a couple - - -Hell I even took Wichita State over Kentucky in a couple. - - - took UNC Wil over Virginia in a couple - - - took Rhode Island over Creighton in a couple & then I even took the winner of Wake Forest/KSU assuming it’s Wake - -if Wake wins that I even took them over Cincinnati in a couple.

  • @BeddieKU23

    “I agree KU could be the only team that survives the 1st weekend.”

    In other words… business as usual for the Big 12!

    Remember back just a few months ago in Big 12 play… this was going to be WVU’s year. Or… this was going to be Baylor’s year. I heard all that nonsense and laughed! This turned out to be one of our easier years for winning the Big 12.

    I believe this will be another year where the Big 12 under-performs in March. (except for Kansas)

    OU, last year, was the anomaly.

  • El poyo would get to post I told you so if that happens.

  • @drgnslayr said:

    I believe this will be another year where the Big 12 under-performs in March. (except for Kansas)

    Unfortunately I agree. And if KU/ISU meet in the Sweet 16, the committee just limited the conferences ability to get multiple teams to the Elite 8. I think Baylor has come back to earth as a lot of people correctly projected they would, and West Virginia doesn’t play consistently enough at a high level to project them going far even though there style of play is scary as heck for teams not familiar with it. Oklahoma St gets one of the hottest teams in the country and Kansas St won’t even be favored in the First 4 game… Tough tough for a conference to change its narrative

  • Baylor sucks.

    I do think ISU will reach the S16.

    WVU is interesting. ND will be tough for them but I could also see them beating the Zags.

  • @kjayhawks

    Someone drank the purple Kool-aid! But I hear you, good defensive teams do well. And while that concept may work for Wake Forrest (#63 vs 283 Def Eff) but how do you figure that #63 defense can beat Cinci at #8?? Link here to the stats I used.

    And if they somehow manage that, you think they can beat UCLA??? You will probably be the only person outside of Manhattan to think that and will definitely have a lock on winning your pool if that ever happened and I will be in awe of your crystal ball skillz!

    A more likely scenario is they just barely lose to Wake and blame the refs 😆

  • BREAKING NEWS: Fran Fraschilla right now on espn bracket discussion live…just…picked…Purdue (!) over his beloved IowaState Cyclones! He did ask for forgiveness from his “guys” Monte Morris and Naz Long, when he moved Purdue past the Clones. He has Purdue then meeting KU, in KC.

  • @ralster wow!

  • @ralster OK. So that means Iowa State wins…

  • @ralster

    I bet Fran had to throw away the voodoo doll before making that pick public. He’s probably already sent a gift basket to Monte’s house and will be present for Naz Long’s first born child.

  • It really depend on how you define an upset, For example, Wichita State is a #10 seed and Dayton a #7 but Wichita State is I believe a 7 point favorite. No question that Wichita State should have been no lower than a 5 0r 6 seed and the seeding is extremely unfair to Dayton, which should be playing a true #10 seed and instead is playing a #5 seed as it was cited in just about every sports show since the brackets were announced. So, If Wichita State wins, should it be considered an upset?

    Florida State ended up as the overall #10 and it has analysts scratching their head as to how this can be,FSU is not close to being the #10 overall team and I would not surprised if Dooley’s boys send them packing.

    I can see Xavier beating Maryland who, like most Big 10 teams is seeded above where it should be; the Big 10 is the worst it has been in a long time. Other than Purdue and maybe Wisconsin, most of the other team are not that good. I believe Oklahoma State takes down Michigan. Frankly, I don’t see any team from the Big 10 making it out of the first weekend.

    Last night I was watching the “experts” bracket discussion on ESPN and they had Gaudio, Adrian Branch former Virginia Player Cory Alexander and two other analysts plus the guy that clicked the selection. When they were discussing KU, Alexander kept saying that since TCU had beaten KU Miami would beat KU and not once he mentioned that Jackson, a second team All-American and arguably the best current player in the team did not play, and while the other analysts preferred KU, the twerp clicking the choices on the big board decide to pick Miami…really? and I mean REALLY??? No wonder ESPN is losing money, they are scraping the bottom of the barrel when it comes to competent analysts.

  • @JayHawkFanToo

    They could have easily switched Wichita’s and Dayton’s seeding around and nobody would have cared. I can’t remember Dayton playing at a 7 seed level unless we have some devout A-10 fans here.

    I do agree though that it was a big disservice to both teams that the committee doesn’t know how to properly seed Wichita St.

  • @BeddieKU23

    Dayton is my undergrad Alma Mater and I follow them. The won the A10 conference and if not for some super long range 3s by Davidson at the end of the game, it probably wins the Tournament as well. In the last 3 years the made the Sweet 16, 3rd round and 1st round. the Coach Archie Miller is consider to top up and coming coach in College basketball and Calipari mentioned just this yesterday. It is a disciplined team that plays hard, much like Wichita, and it should be a good game. Fans travel well and Indianapolis is not too far so there should be decent amount of fans. Nothing would please me more to see Dayton bear Wichita and Kentucky although this is unlikely to happen.

    I am not sure why the NCAA seems to hate all Kansas teams. WSU gets routinely under-seeded and KU get the shat often enough. At least, we are the only state with at least 3 Division I teams with all the teams making it to the dance…Kansas is THE basketball state indeed.

  • @BShark said:

    El poyo would get to post I told you so if that happens.

    He only gets to do an I-told-you-so if it is Wiggins’ fault again. Let’s cross up his obsessions.

  • @drgnslayr na I have to disagree but that’s what makes for good conversation right? I feel pretty god about WV coming out of the 1st weekend & actually I feel pretty good about Iowa State making it through the 1st weekend. - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY

  • @BShark Do you have ISU beating Purdue then in the round of 32? Iowa St has lost 10 games this season and in all of them they were outrebounded by the opposing team. Purdue is one of the better rebounding teams in the country and they’ll probably be like +10 or +15 on the glass against ISU. Also, ISU has nobody to stop Swanigan. I wouldn’t be surprised if he went for like 30 and 15 against ISU. In general, I don’t pick Big10 teams to advance far in the tournament other than Wisconsin or Michigan St, but I kind of like Purdue this season.

  • @KirkIsMyHinrich

    ISU will run circles around Purdue and kill them with treys.

  • @JayHawkFanToo National media hates KS teams because they are small market. To be more precise, maybe the ex-baller analysts like Bilas, Simon, Jay Williams arent biased, but definitely the corporate bias would be towards MARKETS and size-of-TV-audience. Those “other” suits talking heads (the ones who look like they never played sports), are simply biz guys, hired to spin or “ask questions” to the analyst guys, and often, you can tell their own- or partyline-bias in how/what they ask.

    We’ve always lamented “east coast bias”, but go one step further: Why? Because just imagine how many TV sets turned away when the Final4 had VCwho in it 1 year, and also the year WichitaSt made the Final4. No matter how deserving WSU was that year. Millions of ad dollars spent on TV ads that were not seen (Wichita who?). Living and growing up in Wichita, I hate to burst Wichitans’ bubble, or for that matter, KSU football’s bubble, as nobody outside the state of KS cares about WSU or KSU.

    From a pure basketball standpoint, Self needs to show more in the dance than 1st or 2nd round exits. Dont even the basketball guys always seem to remember the surprise defeats? Maybe to his credit, Self has evolved, as Stanford was a very young, non-F4 caliber team–that team wasnt going to get far. WSU is that bite from a midmajor. And we fought like lions vs Nova, but a 2 possession game magnifies every turnover or FT miss. Or, maybe in the Tourney, Self is simply above-average.

    From a natl perspective, I’m extremely curious how this particular KU squad will do this particular year…we also just realized how much Josh adds to this team, especially lately…(by addition and by subtraction). Maybe the best answer to BIFM and DG’s mpg was indeed sit em for over 1 week, and work on defensive principles and on-court communication. Nothing like motivating the guys like only their “final” sustainable loss can do…

  • @StLJhawk I pick some crazy picks in about half my brackets, #1 issue is with most people they dont pick enough upsets.

  • @ralster I think purdue can win that match up, the only reason they beat us was Frank was the only guy that showed up and they hit a school record in 3s. We killed them on the glass in that game as will purdue.

  • @BShark “ISU will run circles around Purdue and kill them with treys.”

    They’re going to need to make about 15 or more 3-pointers to win that game.

  • @kjayhawks My biggest issue with KU losing to IowaState, wasnt that it broke some streak that honestly matters little, but the fact that shooting 3s is IowaStates calling card…and we “let” them. You could write “we shoot 3s” on IowaState’s gravestone. And they truly live and die by it. 3pt Defense was simply atrocious. And we “let” them do it in our house. So, losing to IowaState only made me privately furious with KU’s defense. If only BIFM had hit his pullup fadeaway 14ftr from right elbow for the W to end regulation! (like he beat Dook in OT).

  • @BShark

    Remember, live by the 3, die by the 3. This is the problem of one-dimensional teams like ISU, if the 3s are not going in there is not much else; definitely not an inside game. To win, ISU has to hit over 0.400 from the 3 since it is their bread and butter, otherwise they are in trouble; the margin of error is small.

  • @ralster I agree but they were pretty lucky with several of those 3s, our defense is prob the worst in the Self. Im a defensive coach and i get so mad as to why we cant maintain position worth a damn.

  • Buncha Clone haters itt I see. ⭕

  • @BShark Is that you, Melvin?

    Melvin Weatherwax.jpg

  • @KirkIsMyHinrich The saddest thing about that photo is how frightened Mrs. Weathermax looks (the redhead with the cyclone-red purse). Right behind Melvin’s head, one can see a girl gasping in disbelief.

    Melvin, go look in the mirror, and where you’re at in life. Stupidest thing I’ve seen in college basketball in years and years, right along with the brainless herd of cattle mentality by KSU fans (when Jamari got hit from behind).

    Melvin made me embarrassed to have IowaSt in the BigXII. KSU fans make me embarrassed to be a Kansan. Made the whole state look bad on natl TV.

    Meanwhile, Duke and UNC are sitting over there shaking their head, wondering ‘is this what KU has to deal with over there?’ And 2 years ago Duke did that touching tribute to Dean Smith of UNC. Decorum and chivalry, anyone? And no, for the love of god, EJ dunking that last bucket in the heat of the moment, surely does NOT justify that level of underlying hate to show itself, does it? Never. Tell those supposed ‘knowledgeable’ Hilton fans that running up the score means multiple buckets with the coach’s tacit or overt approval… Idiots!

  • @ralster don’t forget Tt fan w/Marcus smart.

  • @Crimsonorblue22 Yes. As much of an oddball/screw-loose kid that Marcus Smart was (TheNextRonArtest), that TxTech fan said something to Smart, who then, of course overreacted and embellished the story. But the fan initiated the personal insult, I recall from all the replays.

  • @jayballer54

    I hope all the Big 12 teams win out on the first weekend!

  • IowaState can lose, that’s fine. But what’s probably better, is if they win and we play them and get to boot them ourselves. And I hope Frank or Josh ends that game with a dunk on their face. I can at least vicariously hope, eh?

  • @drgnslayr I do too, we need to show well this year - - -represent well this year. - - ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY

  • @KirkIsMyHinrich

    Fite me irl.

  • @BShark Alright, but you’ll have to come to Colorado because I don’t feel like driving through Kansas.

  • @JayHawkFanToo said:

    I am not sure why the NCAA seems to hate all Kansas teams. WSU gets routinely under-seeded and KU get the shat often enough. At least, we are the only state with at least 3 Division I teams with all the teams making it to the dance…Kansas is THE basketball state indeed.

    They didn’t distribute the KS teams very well (KSU and WSU face each other if they get past their 1st round opponent) and there are THREE B12 teams in the midwest with KU and ISU – the two B12 champions – seeded to face each other in the Sweet 16.

    They don’t do a conference any favors by orchestrating a match-up of conference opponents so early to reduce the number of teams from the conference (and there for the $$$ earned for the conference.)

  • North Carolina has 5 teams dancing.

    UNC, DUKE, Wake Forest, UNC Wilmington, and NC Central,.

  • @bskeet said:

    They didn’t distribute the KS teams very well (KSU and WSU face each other if they get past their 1st round opponent) and there are THREE B12 teams in the midwest with KU and ISU – the two B12 champions – seeded to face each other in the Sweet 16.

    KSU and WSU wouldn’t meet until the Sweet 16, if they both beat two opponents ranked above them, and of course, the Grapes have to win the play in game.

  • @bskeet said:

    They didn’t distribute the KS teams very well (KSU and WSU face each other if they get past their 1st round opponent)

    Not unusual. Kentucky plays N Kentucky first round, and Florida St is playing FGCU.

    Interesting matchup possibilties: Kent State could play Kansas State in the second round, for KSU vs. KSU.

    And in the branding rematch, South Carolina could play USC in the Sweet 16. A few years back, USC won a major trademark battle, forcing SC to give up having USC on their hats and apparel. But in common parlance, it could be USC vs. USC.

  • I’m all for KSU and WSU playing each other.

  • I would have no issues in principle with KSU and WSU playing each other since that means they would’ve eliminated Kentucky and UCLA along the way to get to a meeting and I’m all for dangerous teams like that going down early.

  • @Blown

    That is 5 out of 18 Division I schools or 28%. Kansas is sending 3 out of 3 or 100%… No other state with 3 Division I schools or even 2 schools is sending all its teams. Minnesota and Vermont with 1 school each are the only other states that are sending all of it teams…or their only teams. I have not run the per-capita team calculations but it would not surprise me if Kansas is also at the top. No doubt Kansas is THE basketball state.

    • Arizona 3
    • Idaho 3
    • Kansas 3
    • Nebraska 3
    • Delaware 2
    • Montana 2
    • Nevada 2
    • New Hampshire 2
    • New Mexico 2
    • North Dakota 2
    • South Dakota 2
    • West Virginia 2
    • Hawaii 1
    • Maine 1
    • Minnesota 1
    • Vermont 1
    • Wyoming 1
    • Alaska 0

  • @JayHawkFanToo Gotcha, mis-read you on my small phone screen. Sorry about that. Thought it said only state with three schools.

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