2023 Season Predictions
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I got season tickets this year for the first time. Pretty darn excited to see how it goes… Below is my W/L projection.
- Missouri State - W
- Illinois - W
- @ Nevada - W
- BYU - W
- @ UT - L
- UCF - W
- @OSU - W
- OU - L
- @ISU - W
- TTU - W
- KSU - L
- @ Cincy - W
9-3 Regular season.
I really think an 8 or 9 win season happens. The schedule falls PERFECTLY for that to happen. I think they can play ball with OU, TTU, and KSU at home. OSU needs Bowman to be the answer at QB, and I just don’t feel like he scares me all that much. Genuinely, every single game except for UT on the road feels like a game we could win this year.
My hopes are definitely too high right now, but man a good season would catapult this program to places it has never been.
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@Kcmatt7 said in 2023 Season Predictions:
I got season tickets this year for the first time. Pretty darn excited to see how it goes… Below is my W/L projection.
- Missouri State - W
- Illinois - W
- @ Nevada - W
- BYU - W
- @ UT - L
- UCF - W
- @OSU - W
- OU - L
- @ISU - W
- TTU - W
- KSU - L
- @ Cincy - W
9-3 Regular season.
I really think an 8 or 9 win season happens. The schedule falls PERFECTLY for that to happen. I think they can play ball with OU, TTU, and KSU at home. OSU needs Bowman to be the answer at QB, and I just don’t feel like he scares me all that much. Genuinely, every single game except for UT on the road feels like a game we could win this year.
My hopes are definitely too high right now, but man a good season would catapult this program to places it has never been.
do able - - - i could see it if things played out right
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I’ve got us at 7-5. The offense is going to be thermonuclear hot since we return 10 starters from a top 10 S&P+ squad. But until the DL actually improves to where we can get stops our ceiling will be limited. I’m optimistic about the wholesale changes up front but until they actually do it we’ll see.
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@Kcmatt7 said in 2023 Season Predictions:
I got season tickets this year for the first time. Pretty darn excited to see how it goes… Below is my W/L projection.
- Missouri State - W
- Illinois - W
- @ Nevada - W
- BYU - W
- @ UT - L
- UCF - W
- @OSU - W
- OU - L
- @ISU - W
- TTU - W
- KSU - L
- @ Cincy - W
9-3 Regular season.
I really think an 8 or 9 win season happens. The schedule falls PERFECTLY for that to happen. I think they can play ball with OU, TTU, and KSU at home. OSU needs Bowman to be the answer at QB, and I just don’t feel like he scares me all that much. Genuinely, every single game except for UT on the road feels like a game we could win this year.
My hopes are definitely too high right now, but man a good season would catapult this program to places it has never been.
I think you’re overestimating the growth the defense makes this year. KU was still bottom 10 in ppg allowed last season. Even a TD improvement in that area still means the defense will likely be in the bottom 1/3 nationally in ppg allowed.
I’m with Farmer and think KU maintains from last season and is in the 6-7 win range because the defense isn’t good enough yet to make that next leap.
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8-4
Also, Jalon Daniels, Devin Neal, Mike Novitsky, Cobee Bryant on the preseason B12 team. Texas leads with 5 players. Kansas tied with KState and TCU for second with 4 players.
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I’m so pleased and excited with the upward direction our football program has finally taken. Thank you Coach Leipold and staff. I couldn’t have imagined 2 years ago that this board would be debating between a 9-3 and 6-7 season. Rock Chalk Baby.
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I’d bet the basketball team loses less games.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 Would love to see you lay out a W/L game by game.
For me, I just think the defense gave up the 7th most PPG in all of CFB last year. They literally can’t be any worse.
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@FarmerJayhawk Giving up 200 a game on the ground makes it hard to win games no doubt. I’m optimistic that a full offseason to try to address that will end up yielding good results.
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@Kcmatt7 said in 2023 Season Predictions:
@Texas-Hawk-10 Would love to see you lay out a W/L game by game.
For me, I just think the defense gave up the 7th most PPG in all of CFB last year. They literally can’t be any worse.
Literally, yes the defense can get worse because they weren’t the worst last season. There’s only two games I feel comfortable enough to definitively say KU will win and that’s Missouri St. and Nevada. I don’t feel confident enough to say KU will sweep the non-confernce part of the schedule because Illinois is returning most of its defense that allowed the fewest ppg last season so that’s not a gimme game. They’re going through transition with a lot of new skill players and a new DC, but the defense should still be really good because the DB coach was promoted.
You say KU has a great schedule to win 9 games and I don’t agree with that. The 3 most winnable B12 games are all on the road and the only B12 road game KU won last year was at West Virginia who’s not on the schedule this year. KU has 3 B12 title contenders among the 5 home games with OU, KSU, and Texas Tech. UCF at home won’t be easy as well as they did play in the AAC title game last year. KU isn’t sneaking up on Texas, but playing them early means we could catch them in a QB controversy if Ewers struggles.
I do believe KU should beat BYU and Cincinnati. I don’t feel quite as confident with those two as I do with MO. St. and Nevada.
Basically, KU is a middle of the pack team with one of the top offenses in the B12 but also quite possibly still the worst defense in the B12 as well.
Missouri St.- W
Illinois- W
@Nevada- W
BYU- W
@Texas- L
UCF- W
@Oklahoma St- L
Oklahoma- L
@Iowa St.- L
Texas Tech- L
Kansas St.- L
@Cincinnati- W
Final record: 6-6
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I’ve heard good things about the secondary. Like NFL scouts think Mello is a real pro. And obviously Cobee is super talented, he’s just got to tighten things up. Marvin Grant got better as the season went on and the belief is he can keep getting better. Kenny kinda just is what he is now. But if those guys take a step forward it’ll make the DL look a lot better.
So while yes it is literally true the defense could be worse it’s also literally true I could get a date with Hillary Duff this weekend.
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@FarmerJayhawk Was that code for Hunter Dickinson? They share the same initials.
Otherwise, have a great time!
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I am kidding by the way.
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@FarmerJayhawk said in 2023 Season Predictions:
I’ve heard good things about the secondary. Like NFL scouts think Mello is a real pro. And obviously Cobee is super talented, he’s just got to tighten things up. Marvin Grant got better as the season went on and the belief is he can keep getting better. Kenny kinda just is what he is now. But if those guys take a step forward it’ll make the DL look a lot better.
So while yes it is literally true the defense could be worse it’s also literally true I could get a date with Hillary Duff this weekend.
you sly devil - - -Hillary Duff- -dam I’m envious Hillary whoaaa
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@FarmerJayhawk said in 2023 Season Predictions:
I’ve heard good things about the secondary. Like NFL scouts think Mello is a real pro. And obviously Cobee is super talented, he’s just got to tighten things up. Marvin Grant got better as the season went on and the belief is he can keep getting better. Kenny kinda just is what he is now. But if those guys take a step forward it’ll make the DL look a lot better.
So while yes it is literally true the defense could be worse it’s also literally true I could get a date with Hillary Duff this weekend.
As a teacher, it just bothers me when people use literally when it’s not the correct usage of that word.
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Lol
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@Texas-Hawk-10 So does it bother you when it was used by some of the greatest authors, such as James Joyce, Charlotte Brontë, Charles Dickens, F. Scott Fitzgerald in a figurative sense? I would say that it is colloquially used quite often. I understand that everyone has their pet peeves, but I find this one interesting.
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@patoh3 said in 2023 Season Predictions:
@Texas-Hawk-10 So does it bother you when it was used by some of the greatest authors, such as James Joyce, Charlotte Brontë, Charles Dickens, F. Scott Fitzgerald in a figurative sense? I would say that it is colloquially used quite often. I understand that everyone has their pet peeves, but I find this one interesting.
It bothers me because it’s something that gets over used quite frequently. If it’s done by an author intentionally with a character using it as a character trait, then it doesn’t bother as mich because of the context of its use. When literally is being used instead of figuratively out of laziness or ignorance, then it does bother me, regardlessof who the writer is. Again, that’s the teacher in me being annoyed by a basic piece of grammar being misused.
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@FarmerJayhawk If the 2016-2018 Buffalo trend continues, I think an improved defense should be expected. I have a feeling the hurry-up offense won’t kill us nearly as badly this season. You saw it absolutely kill us with UT and OU.
Going to be very interesting to see how the DL plays. So many transfers. Booker with huge upside. Phillips should provide us with a solid NT. I’ll be curious to see what we get out of Keys and Booker. I think Joyner offers you solid depth. We know what we have with Robinson. Really need the depth of Withers/Hatcher/Taylor/Dunn to take a step forward though. It would be a good sign if the only transfer that starts is Phillips.
Another underrated upgrade I think we’ll see this season is a vastly improved kicking game. Very interested to see how Greaves does and what moving to an Aussie style punter will do for coverage and pinning teams deep. And Keller could have a career worst season and still be a significant upgrade at kicker…
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@Kcmatt7 I agree with all that. My concern is still the lack of any proven pass rush, but an improved DB group will help that a lot.
Good point on the kicking game. Telling they got rid of pretty much everyone except Allen, who does pretty well on kickoffs.
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The defense and special teams were absolute garbage last season. I personally think Borland’s seat should be pretty warm at this point. We have guys getting drafted and signed as UFAs but rank in the bottom 20% of CFB in every nearly statistical category defensively. I’d be happy with a bowl win, 6-6 is what I personally predict at this point. Being super optimistic I’d say 8-4 at best. This is a good schedule and lots of folks are predicting an easy win against Illinois. I’d bet a hefty amount that’s a very tight game. I’m excited to see what we can do and hope to make it to a game for the first time since 2019.
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@kjayhawks man, anyone saying we’ll easily beat Illinois has not watched any Illinois. That’s gonna be a squeaker.
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I definitely don’t think the Illinois game is a gimme. But I do like the matchup. I’d much prefer we play a game against a good defensive team that struggles to score than a team that can put up 50.
And from a prediction standpoint, I’ll give us the edge for playing at home. But it is likely a one score game.
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@kjayhawks said in 2023 Season Predictions:
The defense and special teams were absolute garbage last season. I personally think Borland’s seat should be pretty warm at this point. We have guys getting drafted and signed as UFAs but rank in the bottom 20% of CFB in every nearly statistical category defensively. I’d be happy with a bowl win, 6-6 is what I personally predict at this point. Being super optimistic I’d say 8-4 at best. This is a good schedule and lots of folks are predicting an easy win against Illinois. I’d bet a hefty amount that’s a very tight game. I’m excited to see what we can do and hope to make it to a game for the first time since 2019.
If the Illinois game was in Champaign, I’d have ot as a loss. That defense gave up the fewest ppg last season and returning most of those players. Only reason I have KU winning is because of how much turnover they have on offense this season. I’m fully expecting that game to look like the ISU game last and if their offense is clicking from the get go, they could easily beat KU by double digits.
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Peering at the schedule it looks like 3-5 wins. I love the optimism, but it’s KU football and the talent gap is still real. Thank goodness for JD or it would be another 1-3 win season. Lance has his work cut out for him.
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@dylans I mean if the goal is to keep expectations low so you aren’t disappointed, this is certainly the best approach. I just don’t see a team returning this many starters on both sides of the ball regressing that badly.
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@Kcmatt7 said in 2023 Season Predictions:
@dylans I mean if the goal is to keep expectations low so you aren’t disappointed, this is certainly the best approach. I just don’t see a team returning this many starters on both sides of the ball regressing that badly.
I agree with you. not many will take this but I’m going more on the optimistic side - - I think these guys are going to surprise people again. I know some here say we not sneaking up on anybody this yr, that’s fine. I think believe it or not I think our secondary will show marked improvement with the experience from last year and D-Line will be better, I just feel w got 7 wins in us - -we shall see but 3-5 wins? - - no way
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@Kcmatt7 said in 2023 Season Predictions:
@dylans I mean if the goal is to keep expectations low so you aren’t disappointed, this is certainly the best approach. I just don’t see a team returning this many starters on both sides of the ball regressing that badly.
I could see that scenario happening with a few injuries because KU still doesn’t have a lot of playable depth yet. Also, our defense still won’t be good and losing those 50/50 games against other midpack teams like OSU, UCF, and ISU is a good way to end up in the 3-5 win range. I’ve said in other comments, even if the defense takes a full TD off of the ppg allowed from last season, KU would still be in the bottom 1/3 in ppg allowed nationally. Yes, the offense should be one of the top in the B12 as long as people stay healthy, but that’s not a given, and the offense won’t be able to overcome the defense each week.
This is also why I don’t like the conference schedule. This schedule sets up a lot like last season where most of KU’s wins this season are going to come in the first half of the season before getting into a murderers row of games down the stretch. I would love to see the back half of KU’s schedule have the home/away games inverted because 3 winnable games in that half of the schedule are all road games.
Having the OSU, ISU, and Cincinnati games on the road are why I’m not as optimistic as you are about KU getting to 8-9 wins and why I think 6 or 7 wins is more likely.
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My guess is a 4-8 season. We will be competitive in most games but we got a really tough Big 12 draw (no Houston, no WVU, no TCU) and I think our 3rd down conversion rate will drop from last year.
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The
Phil Steele forecasts us to allow 31.4 a game. So we’ll see how it goes but we should be able to score enough to at least go .500.
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@FarmerJayhawk said in 2023 Season Predictions:
The
Phil Steele forecasts us to allow 31.4 a game. So we’ll see how it goes but we should be able to score enough to at least go .500.If that ends up being close to accurate, that’s only 4 points better than last season and probably still not in the top 100. I also don’t think we can expect any kind of significant increase in tur overs either as the defense was 25th in turnovers created last season. Probably need the offense to cut down to help the turnover margin this season.
Since we’re not likely to see huge gains in defense, if I was Coach Borland, I would focus on one area to improve and that would be Redzone defense. KU gave up the 2nd most redzone attempts, 65 total or 5 per game, so keeping teams out of the red zone would do wonders. If teams do reach the red zone, focus on forcing FG’s instead of TD’s because again, KU gave up the 3rd most red zone TD’s last season. The run defense was the biggest culprit as KU did give the most red zone rushing TD’s last season and only Colorado gave up more total rushing TD’s last season.
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@FarmerJayhawk said in 2023 Season Predictions:
The
Phil Steele forecasts us to allow 31.4 a game. So we’ll see how it goes but we should be able to score enough to at least go .500.What did he predict for the offense, because I think they will average 35-38 a game. They will drop 45 plus a couple times this year.
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@Woodrow 34.5 on 427 yards. Which would be a tick lower than last year. Unlikely IMO. 10 starters back plus almost all reserves and an improved kicking game could push us closer to 40
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Thought the d got better over the course of last season. Did we lose big names on the defensive side?
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@approxinfinity Lonnie is the big one. If he would’ve come back I’d say we’d push top 3 in the league
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@FarmerJayhawk said in 2023 Season Predictions:
@Woodrow 34.5 on 427 yards. Which would be a tick lower than last year. Unlikely IMO. 10 starters back plus almost all reserves and an improved kicking game could push us closer to 40
KU was a top 25 offense last season (both ppg and ypg were top 25) with Daniels missing several games. If he stays healthy all year, combined with basically everyone back, pushing to be a top 10-15 offense should be a realistic possibility this season.
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@FarmerJayhawk said in 2023 Season Predictions:
@approxinfinity Lonnie is the big one. If he would’ve come back I’d say we’d push top 3 in the league
Yea that one was tough. And for him to not get drafted made it even worse to watch him go. More than his sacks, where we will miss him is 11.5 tackles for loss. He had the ability to single-handedly get the defense off the field. That will be very tough to replace.
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@Kcmatt7 at least he got signed by the Browns. How many has Leipold put in the league and how many would you project on next years roster are league bound? (asking questions like you guys have all the answers)
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@approxinfinity underclassmen I’ve got no idea. But looking at true juniors and above, LJ Arnold, Cobee Bryant, Mello Dotson, Devin Neal, Jalon, Jason Bean, Craig Young, Devin Phillips, Jared Casey, Mike Novitsky, and Mason Fairchild could all get cups of coffee in the league if not more.
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I’m really excited for the season to begin. KU players should be playing with huge chips on their shoulders given the low expectations sports writers are giving this year’s team. I like the underdog role; the Illinois game is a great opportunity to punch the football know-it-alls in the face.
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@stoptheflop why would the sportswriters dog this team? Surely we arent bottomfeeders any more?
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@approxinfinity Are you being sarcastic?
I’m hopeful they are in the right track with a good QB and coach, but they need to prove last years rise to mediocrity wasn’t a fluke.
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@dylans not sarcastic, all signs point to (at least) continued mediocrity!
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@approxinfinity said in 2023 Season Predictions:
@stoptheflop why would the sportswriters dog this team? Surely we arent bottomfeeders any more?
This team still rightfully has plenty of questions about the defense. This was a bottom 10 defense nationally last year that gave up 35 ppg. If KU was projected to have an average to good defense, then they would likely be a top 5 pick and contender to win the league.
In massive rebuilds like this, it usually takes longer for the defense to have a breakthrough and that’s why the media is still questioning this team.
Another reason is we don’t exactly have a favorable schedule. We play all 4 teams the media picked to be in the top 4 of the league and we don’t play two of the bottom 3 in the predictions. The home/away split of KU’s schedule didn’t do KU many favors as well as a lot of KU’s more winnable Big 12 games are on the road.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 Thanks for breaking it down.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 Yes, 35 ppg sucks, but KU had the 5th most difficult schedule last year, behind W Virg, Texas and KState (according to the first and only site I checked). Just guessing here because dinner’s almost ready and I’m not going to look it up, but our defense very likely played against much better offenses than about 120 other D1 teams. I don’t expect the Big 12 to be nearly as strong this year. So, I’m hopeful that our defense will be good enough to decrease the score on every possession pressure that’s been on the offense. Regarding the comments about mediocrity, I guaranty you most of us would have very happy with mediocrity before KU started 5-0 last season. Too damn bad Jason Bean overthrew our open receiver in OT against Ark. Heck, at this time last year, I was just hoping to win 3 games.
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Probably the biggest x-factor for our record this year compared to last year is that we won’t be sneaking up on anyone this year. Teams will be prepared.
In that environment, a similar record would be actually a really good outcome; a better record than last year would be spectacular and strong evidence that a foundation is laid and solidifying. I’m hoping for either of these scenarios.
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@stoptheflop said in 2023 Season Predictions:
@Texas-Hawk-10 Yes, 35 ppg sucks, but KU had the 5th most difficult schedule last year, behind W Virg, Texas and KState (according to the first and only site I checked). Just guessing here because dinner’s almost ready and I’m not going to look it up, but our defense very likely played against much better offenses than about 120 other D1 teams. I don’t expect the Big 12 to be nearly as strong this year. So, I’m hopeful that our defense will be good enough to decrease the score on every possession pressure that’s been on the offense. Regarding the comments about mediocrity, I guaranty you most of us would have very happy with mediocrity before KU started 5-0 last season. Too damn bad Jason Bean overthrew our open receiver in OT against Ark. Heck, at this time last year, I was just hoping to win 3 games.
KU only played 3 teams in the top 25 in scoring offense last season. TCU (9), Houston (t16), and Texas (25). There’s 6 more between 26-50, but that’s not exactly elite territory. KU was the #2 scoring offense in the conference last season.
The reason our defense sucks and will likely still struggle a lot this upcoming season is because KU simply doesn’t have enough playable depth on the DLine yet. KU needs to get to a point to where they can stop other teams ground games because that’s where the B12 is now, but they were 7th worst against the run nationally last season at over 200 ypg.
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I hope KU football continues to improve, but 6-7 with a bowl game loss is the definition of mediocre. 1-7 down the stretch is less than mediocre. I do believe Lance can make this team competitive, but I don’t know that the current talent is enough. I wish Jalon Daniels had 4 years left lol I think he will be a big part of the turnaround. Finding that next QB will be huge - it’s been nearly 15 years between decent QBs for KU.
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@dylans said in 2023 Season Predictions:
I hope KU football continues to improve, but 6-7 with a bowl game loss is the definition of mediocre. 1-7 down the stretch is less than mediocre. I do believe Lance can make this team competitive, but I don’t know that the current talent is enough. I wish Jalon Daniels had 4 years left lol I think he will be a big part of the turnaround. Finding that next QB will be huge - it’s been nearly 15 years between decent QBs for KU.
Everything I’ve heard and read is we FOR SUEE have our QB of the future, kid is a stud, we just got to hang onto him till early signing, I don’t think our problems will be with the QB -still going to be on our defense right now
