2023 Season Predictions
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@Kcmatt7 I agree with all that. My concern is still the lack of any proven pass rush, but an improved DB group will help that a lot.
Good point on the kicking game. Telling they got rid of pretty much everyone except Allen, who does pretty well on kickoffs.
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The defense and special teams were absolute garbage last season. I personally think Borland’s seat should be pretty warm at this point. We have guys getting drafted and signed as UFAs but rank in the bottom 20% of CFB in every nearly statistical category defensively. I’d be happy with a bowl win, 6-6 is what I personally predict at this point. Being super optimistic I’d say 8-4 at best. This is a good schedule and lots of folks are predicting an easy win against Illinois. I’d bet a hefty amount that’s a very tight game. I’m excited to see what we can do and hope to make it to a game for the first time since 2019.
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@kjayhawks man, anyone saying we’ll easily beat Illinois has not watched any Illinois. That’s gonna be a squeaker.
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I definitely don’t think the Illinois game is a gimme. But I do like the matchup. I’d much prefer we play a game against a good defensive team that struggles to score than a team that can put up 50.
And from a prediction standpoint, I’ll give us the edge for playing at home. But it is likely a one score game.
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@kjayhawks said in 2023 Season Predictions:
The defense and special teams were absolute garbage last season. I personally think Borland’s seat should be pretty warm at this point. We have guys getting drafted and signed as UFAs but rank in the bottom 20% of CFB in every nearly statistical category defensively. I’d be happy with a bowl win, 6-6 is what I personally predict at this point. Being super optimistic I’d say 8-4 at best. This is a good schedule and lots of folks are predicting an easy win against Illinois. I’d bet a hefty amount that’s a very tight game. I’m excited to see what we can do and hope to make it to a game for the first time since 2019.
If the Illinois game was in Champaign, I’d have ot as a loss. That defense gave up the fewest ppg last season and returning most of those players. Only reason I have KU winning is because of how much turnover they have on offense this season. I’m fully expecting that game to look like the ISU game last and if their offense is clicking from the get go, they could easily beat KU by double digits.
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Peering at the schedule it looks like 3-5 wins. I love the optimism, but it’s KU football and the talent gap is still real. Thank goodness for JD or it would be another 1-3 win season. Lance has his work cut out for him.
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@dylans I mean if the goal is to keep expectations low so you aren’t disappointed, this is certainly the best approach. I just don’t see a team returning this many starters on both sides of the ball regressing that badly.
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@Kcmatt7 said in 2023 Season Predictions:
@dylans I mean if the goal is to keep expectations low so you aren’t disappointed, this is certainly the best approach. I just don’t see a team returning this many starters on both sides of the ball regressing that badly.
I agree with you. not many will take this but I’m going more on the optimistic side - - I think these guys are going to surprise people again. I know some here say we not sneaking up on anybody this yr, that’s fine. I think believe it or not I think our secondary will show marked improvement with the experience from last year and D-Line will be better, I just feel w got 7 wins in us - -we shall see but 3-5 wins? - - no way
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@Kcmatt7 said in 2023 Season Predictions:
@dylans I mean if the goal is to keep expectations low so you aren’t disappointed, this is certainly the best approach. I just don’t see a team returning this many starters on both sides of the ball regressing that badly.
I could see that scenario happening with a few injuries because KU still doesn’t have a lot of playable depth yet. Also, our defense still won’t be good and losing those 50/50 games against other midpack teams like OSU, UCF, and ISU is a good way to end up in the 3-5 win range. I’ve said in other comments, even if the defense takes a full TD off of the ppg allowed from last season, KU would still be in the bottom 1/3 in ppg allowed nationally. Yes, the offense should be one of the top in the B12 as long as people stay healthy, but that’s not a given, and the offense won’t be able to overcome the defense each week.
This is also why I don’t like the conference schedule. This schedule sets up a lot like last season where most of KU’s wins this season are going to come in the first half of the season before getting into a murderers row of games down the stretch. I would love to see the back half of KU’s schedule have the home/away games inverted because 3 winnable games in that half of the schedule are all road games.
Having the OSU, ISU, and Cincinnati games on the road are why I’m not as optimistic as you are about KU getting to 8-9 wins and why I think 6 or 7 wins is more likely.
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My guess is a 4-8 season. We will be competitive in most games but we got a really tough Big 12 draw (no Houston, no WVU, no TCU) and I think our 3rd down conversion rate will drop from last year.
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The
Phil Steele forecasts us to allow 31.4 a game. So we’ll see how it goes but we should be able to score enough to at least go .500.
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@FarmerJayhawk said in 2023 Season Predictions:
The
Phil Steele forecasts us to allow 31.4 a game. So we’ll see how it goes but we should be able to score enough to at least go .500.If that ends up being close to accurate, that’s only 4 points better than last season and probably still not in the top 100. I also don’t think we can expect any kind of significant increase in tur overs either as the defense was 25th in turnovers created last season. Probably need the offense to cut down to help the turnover margin this season.
Since we’re not likely to see huge gains in defense, if I was Coach Borland, I would focus on one area to improve and that would be Redzone defense. KU gave up the 2nd most redzone attempts, 65 total or 5 per game, so keeping teams out of the red zone would do wonders. If teams do reach the red zone, focus on forcing FG’s instead of TD’s because again, KU gave up the 3rd most red zone TD’s last season. The run defense was the biggest culprit as KU did give the most red zone rushing TD’s last season and only Colorado gave up more total rushing TD’s last season.
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@FarmerJayhawk said in 2023 Season Predictions:
The
Phil Steele forecasts us to allow 31.4 a game. So we’ll see how it goes but we should be able to score enough to at least go .500.What did he predict for the offense, because I think they will average 35-38 a game. They will drop 45 plus a couple times this year.
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@Woodrow 34.5 on 427 yards. Which would be a tick lower than last year. Unlikely IMO. 10 starters back plus almost all reserves and an improved kicking game could push us closer to 40
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Thought the d got better over the course of last season. Did we lose big names on the defensive side?
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@approxinfinity Lonnie is the big one. If he would’ve come back I’d say we’d push top 3 in the league
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@FarmerJayhawk said in 2023 Season Predictions:
@Woodrow 34.5 on 427 yards. Which would be a tick lower than last year. Unlikely IMO. 10 starters back plus almost all reserves and an improved kicking game could push us closer to 40
KU was a top 25 offense last season (both ppg and ypg were top 25) with Daniels missing several games. If he stays healthy all year, combined with basically everyone back, pushing to be a top 10-15 offense should be a realistic possibility this season.
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@FarmerJayhawk said in 2023 Season Predictions:
@approxinfinity Lonnie is the big one. If he would’ve come back I’d say we’d push top 3 in the league
Yea that one was tough. And for him to not get drafted made it even worse to watch him go. More than his sacks, where we will miss him is 11.5 tackles for loss. He had the ability to single-handedly get the defense off the field. That will be very tough to replace.
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@Kcmatt7 at least he got signed by the Browns. How many has Leipold put in the league and how many would you project on next years roster are league bound? (asking questions like you guys have all the answers)
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@approxinfinity underclassmen I’ve got no idea. But looking at true juniors and above, LJ Arnold, Cobee Bryant, Mello Dotson, Devin Neal, Jalon, Jason Bean, Craig Young, Devin Phillips, Jared Casey, Mike Novitsky, and Mason Fairchild could all get cups of coffee in the league if not more.
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I’m really excited for the season to begin. KU players should be playing with huge chips on their shoulders given the low expectations sports writers are giving this year’s team. I like the underdog role; the Illinois game is a great opportunity to punch the football know-it-alls in the face.
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@stoptheflop why would the sportswriters dog this team? Surely we arent bottomfeeders any more?
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@approxinfinity Are you being sarcastic?
I’m hopeful they are in the right track with a good QB and coach, but they need to prove last years rise to mediocrity wasn’t a fluke.
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@dylans not sarcastic, all signs point to (at least) continued mediocrity!
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@approxinfinity said in 2023 Season Predictions:
@stoptheflop why would the sportswriters dog this team? Surely we arent bottomfeeders any more?
This team still rightfully has plenty of questions about the defense. This was a bottom 10 defense nationally last year that gave up 35 ppg. If KU was projected to have an average to good defense, then they would likely be a top 5 pick and contender to win the league.
In massive rebuilds like this, it usually takes longer for the defense to have a breakthrough and that’s why the media is still questioning this team.
Another reason is we don’t exactly have a favorable schedule. We play all 4 teams the media picked to be in the top 4 of the league and we don’t play two of the bottom 3 in the predictions. The home/away split of KU’s schedule didn’t do KU many favors as well as a lot of KU’s more winnable Big 12 games are on the road.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 Thanks for breaking it down.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 Yes, 35 ppg sucks, but KU had the 5th most difficult schedule last year, behind W Virg, Texas and KState (according to the first and only site I checked). Just guessing here because dinner’s almost ready and I’m not going to look it up, but our defense very likely played against much better offenses than about 120 other D1 teams. I don’t expect the Big 12 to be nearly as strong this year. So, I’m hopeful that our defense will be good enough to decrease the score on every possession pressure that’s been on the offense. Regarding the comments about mediocrity, I guaranty you most of us would have very happy with mediocrity before KU started 5-0 last season. Too damn bad Jason Bean overthrew our open receiver in OT against Ark. Heck, at this time last year, I was just hoping to win 3 games.
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Probably the biggest x-factor for our record this year compared to last year is that we won’t be sneaking up on anyone this year. Teams will be prepared.
In that environment, a similar record would be actually a really good outcome; a better record than last year would be spectacular and strong evidence that a foundation is laid and solidifying. I’m hoping for either of these scenarios.
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@stoptheflop said in 2023 Season Predictions:
@Texas-Hawk-10 Yes, 35 ppg sucks, but KU had the 5th most difficult schedule last year, behind W Virg, Texas and KState (according to the first and only site I checked). Just guessing here because dinner’s almost ready and I’m not going to look it up, but our defense very likely played against much better offenses than about 120 other D1 teams. I don’t expect the Big 12 to be nearly as strong this year. So, I’m hopeful that our defense will be good enough to decrease the score on every possession pressure that’s been on the offense. Regarding the comments about mediocrity, I guaranty you most of us would have very happy with mediocrity before KU started 5-0 last season. Too damn bad Jason Bean overthrew our open receiver in OT against Ark. Heck, at this time last year, I was just hoping to win 3 games.
KU only played 3 teams in the top 25 in scoring offense last season. TCU (9), Houston (t16), and Texas (25). There’s 6 more between 26-50, but that’s not exactly elite territory. KU was the #2 scoring offense in the conference last season.
The reason our defense sucks and will likely still struggle a lot this upcoming season is because KU simply doesn’t have enough playable depth on the DLine yet. KU needs to get to a point to where they can stop other teams ground games because that’s where the B12 is now, but they were 7th worst against the run nationally last season at over 200 ypg.
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I hope KU football continues to improve, but 6-7 with a bowl game loss is the definition of mediocre. 1-7 down the stretch is less than mediocre. I do believe Lance can make this team competitive, but I don’t know that the current talent is enough. I wish Jalon Daniels had 4 years left lol I think he will be a big part of the turnaround. Finding that next QB will be huge - it’s been nearly 15 years between decent QBs for KU.
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@dylans said in 2023 Season Predictions:
I hope KU football continues to improve, but 6-7 with a bowl game loss is the definition of mediocre. 1-7 down the stretch is less than mediocre. I do believe Lance can make this team competitive, but I don’t know that the current talent is enough. I wish Jalon Daniels had 4 years left lol I think he will be a big part of the turnaround. Finding that next QB will be huge - it’s been nearly 15 years between decent QBs for KU.
Everything I’ve heard and read is we FOR SUEE have our QB of the future, kid is a stud, we just got to hang onto him till early signing, I don’t think our problems will be with the QB -still going to be on our defense right now
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@jayballer67 said in 2023 Season Predictions:
@dylans said in 2023 Season Predictions:
I hope KU football continues to improve, but 6-7 with a bowl game loss is the definition of mediocre. 1-7 down the stretch is less than mediocre. I do believe Lance can make this team competitive, but I don’t know that the current talent is enough. I wish Jalon Daniels had 4 years left lol I think he will be a big part of the turnaround. Finding that next QB will be huge - it’s been nearly 15 years between decent QBs for KU.
Everything I’ve heard and read is we FOR SUEE have our QB of the future, kid is a stud, we just got to hang onto him till early signing, I don’t think our problems will be with the QB -still going to be on our defense right now
Zeke is Jalon 2.0
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@FarmerJayhawk said in 2023 Season Predictions:
@jayballer67 said in 2023 Season Predictions:
@dylans said in 2023 Season Predictions:
I hope KU football continues to improve, but 6-7 with a bowl game loss is the definition of mediocre. 1-7 down the stretch is less than mediocre. I do believe Lance can make this team competitive, but I don’t know that the current talent is enough. I wish Jalon Daniels had 4 years left lol I think he will be a big part of the turnaround. Finding that next QB will be huge - it’s been nearly 15 years between decent QBs for KU.
Everything I’ve heard and read is we FOR SUEE have our QB of the future, kid is a stud, we just got to hang onto him till early signing, I don’t think our problems will be with the QB -still going to be on our defense right now
Zeke is Jalon 2.0
he sure is from everything I’ve heard and seen from camps he has taken place in - -looks really nice
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My prediction: Missouri State - W. 52-12
Illinois - Meeting a decent Defense. W. 24-17
@ Nevada They were really bad last year, but on the road for first time makes it a bit tougher. W 34-21
BYU - Welcome to the 12 Cougars. Enigmatic team last year beating Baylor and Stanford but losing to Liberty. I think we lose this L 28-27
@ UT - We’ve welcomed the new teams but still have the old teams? Odd. After the way they steamrolled us last year, I think this is another ugly loss. L 42-21
UCF - Not a real impressive resume last year. We must call them Central Florida because they want to be called UCF and get annoyed when called Central Florida, a real big reason to already dislike these dweebs from the swamp. W 52-14.
@OSU Don’t feel good about this one except for the @ factor. We lose closely in a shootout L 42-39
OU - I’d love to send them out of the league with a loss and we just might be pumped enough to pull it off. W. KU21- OU 17.
@ISU - Let down week and the Clones make sure we don’t get too big headed. L 35-21
TTU - W. Home game, sure, lets beat them again. W. 38-24
KSU - L. Ouch. Not talented enough yet, but it will be closer. L. 31-23
@ Cincy - I don’t know why, but Fickell left, they’ll not be as good so I think we can pull this one off. W. 21-17
7-5. I’d take it. Leipold probably would like better than that and he’s skilled enough to pull it off.
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@Kcmatt7 said in 2023 Season Predictions:
I got season tickets this year for the first time. Pretty darn excited to see how it goes… Below is my W/L projection.
- Missouri State - W
- Illinois - W
- @ Nevada - W
- BYU - W
- @ UT - L
- UCF - W
- @OSU - W
- OU - L
- @ISU - W
- TTU - W
- KSU - L
- @ Cincy - W
9-3 Regular season.
I really think an 8 or 9 win season happens. The schedule falls PERFECTLY for that to happen. I think they can play ball with OU, TTU, and KSU at home. OSU needs Bowman to be the answer at QB, and I just don’t feel like he scares me all that much. Genuinely, every single game except for UT on the road feels like a game we could win this year.
My hopes are definitely too high right now, but man a good season would catapult this program to places it has never been.
- Missouri State - W
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@Kcmatt7 ksu
winnable!
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@Crimsonorblue22 - Wouldn’t that be awesome? Rub it in their face a bit…
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1st time since 1913/14- We have started 4-0 back to back starts
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I said we had to start 4-0 to get back to a bowl. Obviously we have done that so I like our chances. Iowa State all sudden found offense tonight but who knows if it’s in Ames to stay. I think UCF, OSU, ISU, Tech. KSU and Cincinnati are all games we can compete in after watching these first 4 weeks. I don’t think we will win all of those my official prediction was 6-6 with a ceiling of 8-4. I honestly think 7 is what will end up with at this point and I’m fine with that.
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@kjayhawks said in 2023 Season Predictions:
I said we had to start 4-0 to get back to a bowl. Obviously we have done that so I like our chances. Iowa State all sudden found offense tonight but who knows if it’s in Ames to stay. I think UCF, OSU, ISU, Tech. KSU and Cincinnati are all games we can compete in after watching these first 4 weeks. I don’t think we will win all of those my official prediction was 6-6 with a ceiling of 8-4. I honestly think 7 is what will end up with at this point and I’m fine with that.
The next 4 games will tell a lot. - -Texas , UCF , Oklahoma State , & -Oklahoma. – -if we can get a split in those 4 would be great winning two of those gives us bowl eligibility right there. - - -I think we got amore then a punchers chance in three out of those four. - -Texas being the only one that would take a lot of breaks - -they are really good. -UCF could be interesting , Oklahoma State SHOULD be a win but we can’t
@kjayhawks said in 2023 Season Predictions:
I said we had to start 4-0 to get back to a bowl. Obviously we have done that so I like our chances. Iowa State all sudden found offense tonight but who knows if it’s in Ames to stay. I think UCF, OSU, ISU, Tech. KSU and Cincinnati are all games we can compete in after watching these first 4 weeks. I don’t think we will win all of those my official prediction was 6-6 with a ceiling of 8-4. I honestly think 7 is what will end up with at this point and I’m fine with that.
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@kjayhawks said in 2023 Season Predictions:
I said we had to start 4-0 to get back to a bowl. Obviously we have done that so I like our chances. Iowa State all sudden found offense tonight but who knows if it’s in Ames to stay. I think UCF, OSU, ISU, Tech. KSU and Cincinnati are all games we can compete in after watching these first 4 weeks. I don’t think we will win all of those my official prediction was 6-6 with a ceiling of 8-4. I honestly think 7 is what will end up with at this point and I’m fine with that.
Something happened with the remainder of my reply lol. – Soooo it’s a two parter …- soo we can’t take anything for granted- - even with Oklahoma state. - As far as Iowa St and their new found offense well - – - - -they were playing OKLAHOMA St , so let’s see if that continues, that was one bad team playing against a worse team. - -I actually do think we have a shot against Oklahoma. -these next four weeks is going to tell us a lot
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It will be awesome to go 2-2 in next 4 games, get bowl eligibility.
