Bubble Watch
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Going to go ahead and list out a few teams to watch here down the stretch and their schedules.
UNC:
- Vs. Clemson (72 Kenpom)
- Vs. Miami (30 Kenpom)
- @ NC State (49 Kenpom)
- @ Notre Dame (179 Kenpom)
- Vs. Virginia ( 14 Kenpom)
- @ FSU (186 Kenpom)
- Vs. Duke (33 Kenpom)
Best guess, UNC gets in. But it almost all hinges on the next 3 games. I think they HAVE to go 2-1 or they are NIT bound.
Kentucky:
- @ Georgia (123 Kenpom)
- @ MSU (45 Kenpom)
- Vs. Tenn (4 Kenpom)
- @ Florida ( 44 Kenpom)
- Vs. Auburn (27 Kenpom)
- Vs. Vandy (94 Kenpom)
- @ Arkansas (19 Kenpom)
Best guess, UK is OUT. That is a pretty tough schedule. I think they’ll need win 5 of these games to get in. Meaning they’ll have to hold serve at home against Tennessee and Auburn, and win 2 of these 4 road games. Tall task for a team that is basically in free fall.
Okalahoma State:
- @ ISU
- Vs. KU
- @ TCU
- @ WVU
- Vs. KSU
- Vs. Baylor
- @ TTU
Best guess: OSU is OUT of the tourney. This is the unfortunate situation of a good team playing in a meat grinder. Would be in if they were in any other P5 conference. I think they have too tough of a road schedule to overcome. About the only way that OSU gets in is stealing one of the first 3 road games, beating TTU AND holding serve at home against KU, Baylor and KSU.
Wisconsin:
- @ Nebraska (104 Kenpom)
- Vs. Michigan (52 Kenpom)
- Vs. Rutgers (17 Kenpom)
- Vs. Iowa ( 32 Kenpom)
- @ Mich (52 Kenpom)
- Vs. Purdue (5 Kenpom)
- @ Minn (222 Kenpom)
Badgers are IN. Very favorable home schedule, and playing against resume builder teams. They have to win, but with only one tough road game left on the schedule they should be able to pull it off.
Duke:
- @ UVA (14 Kenpom)
- Vs. Notre Dame (179 Kenpom)
- @ Syracuse ( 88 Kenpom)
- Vs. Louisville (304 Kenpom LOL)
- Vs. VT (59 Kenpom)
- Vs. NC State (49 Kenpom)
- @ UNC (36 Kenpom)
Duke will have to screw up to not get in… Totally possible, but I think unlikely. I think that even if they lose to UVA, NC State and UNC they are a last 4 in. However, if they do all of that and drop one of these other games, it could get interesting for the Blue Devils.
Those are the ones I care to watch at the moment. I think Memphis, Seton Hall, Oregon and A&M will be interesting to watch too. Seton Hall really the only one of that bunch that has an effect on KU from a seeding/rankings/NET standpoint.
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Good stuff, Good work!
UNC, Duke, Kentucky on the bubble watch is crazy to think of at the same time.
And the moral to this story is that they don’t have Bill Self.
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@Kcmatt7 I think the most shocking part of that is Louisville Kenpom 304. Every so often, once or twice a year I look at it to see the lowest rated power 6 school. It’s rare a team is even in the 200’s and to think that Louisville is down there with the lower rungs of low majordom.
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Sad to say but if there is ANY WAY for the committee to squeeze them by whether they win enough or not - -they will do exactly that. - -Deserving or not they will bank on Name alone previous years and how the committeee has a love fest going with these Schools- - - their thinking , - -oh wll these are the blue bloods of all blue bloods just wouldn’t be the same without them.
Actually none of them deserve in probably unless big turn around. - -Kentucky is just a train wreck right now. – Carolina , what ?-- they went from preseason # 1 to unranked most the season. - - Bacot looks like he has regressed - -Love is a mess - Think Davis is in over his head.- -Duke - well Duke if any might be the one in - but way inconsistent , - -their PG Roach can flat ass shoot them right out of any game, I think he is trying to hard to be THT leader.- -They have had some un timely injuries been with out Whitehead or Lively off and on throughout - but still think if any is in - -It’s Duke. - -the other two at this poinst anyways - NO they should not get in
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@Kcmatt7 I agree with you assessment. I hope the ACC doesn’t get more than 6 or 7 teams. That conference is headed down hill. I thought the same thing last year before Duke and UNC made the final four. Could you imagine KU having a schedule break like playing Louisville, Georgia Tech, Notre Dame or Florida State right now.
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@kjayhawks said in Bubble Watch:
@Kcmatt7 I agree with you assessment. I hope the ACC doesn’t get more than 6 or 7 teams. That conference is headed down hill. I thought the same thing last year before Duke and UNC made the final four. Could you imagine KU having a schedule break like playing Louisville, Georgia Tech, Notre Dame or Florida State right now.
Until Virginia played NC St the other night, they hadn’t faced a ranked team since early December. ACC is ranked 7th among conferences in Kenpom. If they do get 6 or 7 teams, they’re in for a rude awakening.
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UVA is worthy of being ranked but #8 is crazy town given the schedule they have played.
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@kjayhawks said in Bubble Watch:
@Kcmatt7 I agree with you assessment. I hope the ACC doesn’t get more than 6 or 7 teams. That conference is headed down hill. I thought the same thing last year before Duke and UNC made the final four. Could you imagine KU having a schedule break like playing Louisville, Georgia Tech, Notre Dame or Florida State right now.
Based on NET rankings, the ACC only deserves 3 teams. Current 1st place teams Clemson and Pitt are ranked 70th and 52nd respectively. UVA, Miami, and Duke are the only 3 ranked high enough to merit an at large bid historically. NC State and UNC are 43rd and 44th so they could move up into at large range, but are in an area that’s usually on the outside of the bubble.
The ACC is really bad this year. UVA and Miami look like the only two teams right now I’d even consider getting past the 1st weekend in a bracket. Calling the bottom of the ACC garbage is in insult to garbage and those are teams that historically do pretty well too.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 I agree a 100 percent but no way the acc gets less than 5.
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I don’t expect us to win in Stillwater.
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@drgnslayr said in Bubble Watch:
I don’t expect us to win in Stillwater.
I do, especially with them losing Anderson - -huge loss for them
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West Virginia is playing itself off the bubble. I watched them beat Iowa St, and they look like a different team- much better defensive intensity than when we smoked them. They play @ Texas today, so if they can somehow get the W, it could throw the conference race wide open. The B12 conference race is the most entertaining conference battle in college bb this year.
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The only team I root against getting into the Tourny is Kentucky. So I do check in on their games and hope for big fat Ls. The rest of the Tourny field I just watch with interest on one of the greatest Sunday evenings in college basketball. I have a love/hate relationship with KU as a #1 seed. I really hate the 1 vs. 16 matchup and can’t breathe until KU has a decent lead. RC
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OOOF. UK going down to Georgia May be the nail in the coffin
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@Kcmatt7 UK fans think so https://twitter.com/BShark5/status/1624502357324185600
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There is no way those people are real fans
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@BeddieKU23 Well, remember they are the same fans who turned on every coach eventually.
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@BeddieKU23 said in Bubble Watch:
There is no way those people are real fans
RR is something else man. KU cheats while UK is pure as snow. Calipari cheated before he got to UK but immediately stopped cheating once he got there btw.
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@BShark said in Bubble Watch:
@BeddieKU23 said in Bubble Watch:
There is no way those people are real fans
RR is something else man. KU cheats while UK is pure as snow. Calipari cheated before he got to UK but immediately stopped cheating once he got there btw.
Ya it’s wild. Imagine getting the recruiting classes they have, having Calipari as a coach, and playing at Rupp arena but thinking everyone else is cheating and you’re the only school doing it clean. They live in their own stupid bubble.
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https://twitter.com/GoodmanHoops/status/1624489852338159617
lolololololololololololllllllllllllll
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UNC gets a much needed win and UK is likely on the wrong side of the bubble with todays loss.
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Wisconsin loses a bad one. OUT of the tourney now…
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@KirkIsMyHinrich Nike must be funneling in hundreds of millions to that place at this point. Why would a top recruit go there at this point if it wasn’t just about cash.
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Was Duke a one coach “program”?
My column:
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Also Bill literally tried to help Calipari in the post game after we played them. He laid out our plan of attack. Oscar still just gets absolutely obliterated on pnr. Cal is a stooge.
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@BShark Cal is the prime example of players play and coaches coach. He would be nothing if he hadn’t paid guys at every stop IMO. He couldn’t go to a lesser school and take them somewhere.
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I hope I’m wrong. We typically don’t play well in Stillwater and OSU is playing good… just beat ISU in Ames.
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@BShark said in Bubble Watch:
Was Duke a one coach “program”?
My column:
They were a pretty strong program even before Ratface. 4 Final Fours in 15 years during the 60’s and 70’s.
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@drgnslayr more like isu played bad, maybe!
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@drgnslayr said in Bubble Watch:
I hope I’m wrong. We typically don’t play well in Stillwater and OSU is playing good… just beat ISU in Ames.
ya I watched that game , they on a roll , w just can not afford a lack luster start. We can’t afford to keep falling behind at the out set of games - today the first 11 minutes was flat terrible. - Oklahoma State on a roll and have solidified a spot in the NCAA’S- we can’t afford to take them lightly especially at their place. - -Don’t think Coach will allow that to happen after seeing how it turned out. - - STRAP IT UP GUYS.
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OSU is like a different team now. They’ve come together and are a threat to anyone!
We best not come with our typical slow start in Stillwater this year!
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CBS is drunk
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@drgnslayr who have they played?
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@BShark Wisconsin won the 2nd national championship way back in 194o or 41. They’re a blue blood for sure!
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@wissox Quick search says one in the 40s and some really old ones. I don’t like counting the Helms ones for KU but I know that can be a point of contention for some.
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@BShark what in the heck, literally none of those teams are blue bloods. They could’ve showed how UNC, UK and Dook are all down
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I saw that earlier and was like what the actual fuck
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@BShark No I wasn’t counting the Helms, but they got one legit one! Interestingly I read a description of that game and it said UW used a strong defense and slow it down style in defeating Wash. St.
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UNC down 12 midway thru the second half in the dean dome.
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UNC didn’t NEED that win, but it damn sure would have helped their cause… This could have been a resume builder for them
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Can Tech play themselves back to the bubble or do they still needed a B12 tournament title? They have a favorable schedule coming up and could see them winning 4 of the next 5. This the only conference in America where every school has double digit wins. OU is the only team below.500 overall and that hopefully changes tomorrow.
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@kjayhawks tech is basically out. 12 losses puts them outside looking in no matter what imo. If they happened to find a way to win out maybe
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@Kcmatt7 said in Bubble Watch:
UNC didn’t NEED that win, but it damn sure would have helped their cause… This could have been a resume builder for them
Pretty crazy from being the # 1 ranked team in the Nation to being on the bubble and not even sure they gettin in - -I think they are o-8 versus quad 1’s - maybe that was another one of these pre tenders…
To me it looks like Bacot has taken a step back- he gets bullied around quite a bit , just doesn’t even look as good as he did last ur , still a pretty decent player but something missing
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@jayballer67 said in Bubble Watch:
@Kcmatt7 said in Bubble Watch:
UNC didn’t NEED that win, but it damn sure would have helped their cause… This could have been a resume builder for them
Pretty crazy from being the # 1 ranked team in the Nation to being on the bubble and not even sure they gettin in - -I think they are o-8 versus quad 1’s - maybe that was another one of these pre tenders…
To me it looks like Bacot has taken a step back- he gets bullied around quite a bit , just doesn’t even look as good as he did last ur , still a pretty decent player but something missing
They don’t have a Juan. They have mad bombers all trying to make isolation plays. Caleb shoots from 30 feet too much, and Davis doesn’t pass the ball like he did last year. Bacot looks disinterested to me.
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@Crimsonorblue22 said in Bubble Watch:
@drgnslayr who have they played?
Sorry for the slow reply. For one they beat ISU at ISU… where we got smoked. They’ve won 5 in a row…
They play some of the best D in our league. Our best way to get our offense rolling is to turn up our defense and get some easy runouts or scores on their D before setting up.
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@wissox From the article, “Since the final week of the 2019-20 season, Kentucky is 35-31 against other power-conference foes (and is 35-32 if you want to include Gonzaga among the high-major opponents). From the start of the 2020-21 season until now, UK is 5-15 in its last 20 games against teams ranked in the AP Top 25.”
Yikes. I think we’d be in meltdown mode as well if places were reversed.
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I bet Indiana really appreciates this type of language… “fear of becoming the next Indiana…”
The real problems at Kentucky go much deeper than Calipari. He is the symptom. He’s a symptom they never should have caught and they wouldn’t have if they had the proper basketball pedigree within their university, fan base, and state.
So there is a basketball coach out there who can talk fast to recruits and get them to sign but has left a trail of allegations and NCAA troubles… he has never shown coaching prowess, just recruiting capabilities… I hope Kansas never dips this low when hiring a coach. I’ll be gone if they do.
Now they are stuck with the coach who can’t coach and he’s getting older and tired… and he is unmotivated because he has his nest egg. Few people are left buying into the used car lot sales pitch he is pitching.
Need I say “the honeymoon is over?”
Why is there such a level of hate now appearing in Lexington? Because the fans are being exposed to their own ignorance for buying into the pitch in the first place. Literally, everyone who knew anything about basketball warned Kentucky ahead of this hire and they made the actual commitment under a sheepish embarrassment… much like someone who breaks wedding vows because they are horny.
Shall I go on? I don’t think so. Why do I sound disgruntled? Because Calipari has always been one of the big examples of “find success without coaching ability, just recruit.” It’s never been good for college basketball or the players who wasted their short time in Lexington. Watch him coach in a game and his style isn’t flattering to players… it’s humiliating… he reminds me of Marsha at WSU.
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Meanwhile… back at the ranch… Classy Rick Barnes shows how it’s done at Tenn, after he escaped the madness of Texas.
I’m loving it and I’ll never feel too awful when we lose to a Barnes’ team.
Oh… let’s not forget to talk about Duke!
Scheyer is in a spot. I don’t know too much about his coaching staff below him but if he can’t match the coaching ability of K he will be exposed soon. I was never a Coach K fan, but I gave him the respect he deserved in coaching. It takes a coach at his level to handle a team full of OADs and find some level of success. I wonder if Jon is starting to realize that yet? Another thing working against him… I hate to say that D1 is superficial… but Jon is a little too cute to be a head coach. It takes ZERO convincing of crowds to associate him with being arrogant. I know that sounds like silly drama… but just watch as he ends up being more disliked than K in the coming years. Dislike turns to anger turns to chip. And I know you all don’t want me opening the chip can of worms today! lol
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@drgnslayr said in Bubble Watch:
@Crimsonorblue22 said in Bubble Watch:
@drgnslayr who have they played?
Sorry for the slow reply. For one they beat ISU at ISU… where we got smoked. They’ve won 5 in a row…
They play some of the best D in our league. Our best way to get our offense rolling is to turn up our defense and get some easy runouts or scores on their D before setting up.
just listened to a Boynton interview --he gives respect obviously to KU- -but talked about his dis pleasure of his team at half- - wants to run more thought maybe they slowed down to much , not sure who gonna guard Grady at that point anyways- a Anderson guarded Grady last time
We CAN NOT- - -CAN NOT fall into our routine of coming out of the gate slow like we have been - -that will get you in trouble for sure.- Like the Oklahoma game —good thing it was Oklahoma because we were horrible. Thank GOD so were they – we better be ready. - -Coach B talked about how Juan might be the most under appreciated / under valued in the Big 12 . Talked about how smart Juan was & how he ws so good defensively. - -We bette be ready- -it won’t be easy
