Big 12 Expansion
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With NIL, $$$ are key to recruiting because NIL $$$ are going to mean everything. If we fall by the wayside conferencewise, we probably won’t be able to compete for recruits in basketball, and that will make it hard to make consistent runs in the NCAA. We have crossed the threshold in the NCAA in terms of $$$. Either have $$$ and have success, or not have $$$ and fail.
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@justanotherfan man, you are really a downer! Depressing!
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Where will our kids be making their NIL? Maybe I’m off here… but won’t it be for selling carpet in Kansas City? Or BBQ? Won’t that be more localized $$$? Like… would Och be making money on his image in Michigan? I am thinking the big $$$ made from moving to the Big10 won’t be going to the athletes.
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There are many discussions about NCAA ceding enforcement powers to the conferences. That is something to consider in deciding how KU best survives in sports. Seems lke we can have more influence in Big 12, where we have been connected historically with most other teams.
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How is Gonzaga pulling top 5 recruiting classes in a midmajor? Are shoecos still king? Can we survive in B12 just by remaining the adidas flagship?
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@drgnslayr The reason to try and move to the Big 10 is not solely athletic. Yes, the TV money will be better because because of schools like Ohio St. and Michigan that are on par with Texas in regards to followings and drawing viewers. The bigger boon is going to be on the academic side because once Texas and Oklahoma leave, KU would be the top research university in the conference and the only AAU member university which is unofficial criteria for Big 10 membership. Joining a conference where almost everyone else is also an AAU member would be a big boost to the university itself and not just athletics
In regards to athletics, think about how much people here complain that a low level game is on ESPN+, that doesn’t happen in the Big 10 because of the Big 10 Network that’s generally apart of most providers sports package.
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You’ll get to see every basketball game on the BIGNetwork if they go to the league. I’ve never forked over any extra ESPN+ money to watch the Badgers, and while the network doesn’t televise every league game on their main channel, they do feature the prominent teams.
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Very interesting post.
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Reality check : we’re contemplating joining a conference that hasn’t invited us, and recently made a public announcement they would not expand their conference. It would be nice if we were offered, but it’s not even on the table right now. I’m fine with the B12 for now. I like the fact that KU will play football and basketball in Houston, which will be a lot of fun to attend. I’m planning a sabbatical back to the Phog next year, which will be a blast, but it sure would be nice to see the guys locally.
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@wissox they don’t televise every game? Are their games on sun. too?
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@Crimsonorblue22 They have a sort of ESPN+ thing for the less popular games. I’ve never had to miss a Badger game because of the + thing. They want their popular teams on live TV. Their Sunday games have become later in the day with some Sunday evening games.
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@wissox at least we haven’t been on Sundays. It’s actually worse.
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Right. I don’t see the Big 10 wanting Kansas. Seems more logical they would want KSU before KU. I know that bruises a lot of egos… but football trumps basketball by a mile.
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@drgnslayr said in Big 12 Expansion:
Right. I don’t see the Big 10 wanting Kansas. Seems more logical they would want KSU before KU. I know that bruises a lot of egos… but football trumps basketball by a mile.
Not remotely true.
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Quick and unverified googling:
The Wildcats brought in $67.6 million in total revenues and spent $78.4 million. Both numbers were down significantly compared to normal years. In 2020, K-State reported $86.4 million in revenue and $86.1 million in expenses. — feb 10 ‘22
Kansas’ NCAA financial statement for fiscal year 2021 showed an end total of minus-$1,815,108, when comparing $92,325,635 in operating revenue to $94,140,743 in operating expenses. Back in fiscal year 2020 the figure was plus-$14,564, when comparing $102,707,575 in revenue to $102,693,011 in expenses. — feb 10 ‘22
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Question: How many years would it take for Kansas football to lift its reputation as being competitive? 5 years of solid performance? 10 years?
KSU may be a good model to study. They stunk worse than us before turning their program around long ago. How are they valued today, both economically and competitively?
I know this conversation stinks… but realistically… who wants Kansas football today? Even a shelled-out Big 12 has us at the bottom.
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Old the athletic article…
Stewart Mandel wrote last week that two sports TV consultants estimated to The Athletic that about 50 percent of the value of the Big 12’s television contract derived solely from Texas and Oklahoma. The Big 12’s current deal paid each school around $25.2 million this last fiscal year, according to tax returns. Add in other league revenue — mainly from the bowls — and the schools received an average of $38.5 million. Last year, the Big Ten paid out about $42.4 million to each of its members. That number was down from about $53.8 million the previous year because of canceled football games. So, in theory, the Big Ten would have to be convinced that any school that comes into the league would be able to increase its TV revenue enough that no one’s bottom line suffers.
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Article referenced Gonzaga as a successful midmajor bball powerhouse, also Villanova, whose football is div ii
13 million drop in athletic revenue from tv contract would hurt. Hard to build up football while youre cutting budget.
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@drgnslayr If the Big 10 only cared about on field football results, they never would’ve added Maryland and Rutgers who have been somewhere between middle of the pack at their bests in the Big 10 to bottom feeders. There’s a lot more than football success that goes into the Big 10 discussions about adding new programs.
TV viewership numbers are down across the board because of how viewing habits have changed so I wouldn’t expect any conference to see an increase in their next major deals. The Big 10 is also a conference that tries to keep up with the SEC and with the SEC moving to 16 members, don’t be too surprised to see the Big 10 take a serious look at trying to add some combination of KU, Pittsburgh, Virginia, and UNC to keep up with the SEC.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 said in Big 12 Expansion:
@drgnslayr If the Big 10 only cared about on field football results, they never would’ve added Maryland and Rutgers who have been somewhere between middle of the pack at their bests in the Big 10 to bottom feeders. There’s a lot more than football success that goes into the Big 10 discussions about adding new programs.
TV viewership numbers are down across the board because of how viewing habits have changed so I wouldn’t expect any conference to see an increase in their next major deals. The Big 10 is also a conference that tries to keep up with the SEC and with the SEC moving to 16 members, don’t be too surprised to see the Big 10 take a serious look at trying to add some combination of KU, Pittsburgh, Virginia, and UNC to keep up with the SEC.
How big are the tv markets for Maryland and Rutgers?
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@Jethro If you want to know the future of TV, look at MLS and their deal with AppleTV next year, look at the NFL and their deal with Amazon, look at UFC and their deal with ESPN+. The New York Yankees I believe have a streaming deal with someone beginning next season. That is the future of TV and live sports, not cable TV deals. Media market size is going to be less relevant than ever going forward and KU has always had good in-house production and can add value to a streaming deal because of how many hours of content they can provide to a streaming deal with another conference.
Streaming is the future of TV and KU adds value in that regard because JayhawkTV can provide many hours of content to a streaming service like Amazon or AppleTV who appear to be the platforms most interested in moving into the live sports realm.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 hard time imagining UVA leaving the ACC
Also can you guys imagine Duke and UNC getting split up. That i could get behind.
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@approxinfinity Duke is also an AAU school so there could be a deal there if the Big 10 really wanted to push that.
Realistically, what probably hurts KU the most is Iowa St. leaving the AAU this year.
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@approxinfinity Texas and Oklahoma are the biggest reason why the Big 12’s is where it’s currently at. Losing those two likely drops the Big 12 into the Pac 12 and ACC range and possibly lower than that. There’s a reason why both ESPN and Fox vetoed the Big 12 expanding while Texas and OU were still long term members of the league. The Big 12’s next TV dealnis going to see a major drop off in value without the league’s two cash cows.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 how much will Houston, Cincinatti UCF and BYU estimate to bring in? If 13 mill per school is lost in revenue, how much do we recover? If we are in ACC / PAC territory isnt that okay? Does this give us a little more leash to try to fix the football program and maybe compete in the conference with OU and Texas out?
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Also since our budget is basically break even, where does the loss affect us? What cost saving measures do we see?
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@approxinfinity we didn’t get money from the longhorn network did we? Do they get to keep that in the sec?
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I challenge your view for us to go to the Big 10 but I appreciate your wisdom in this area. It is far deeper than mine. I openly admit to a simplistic view on this topic.
I am skeptical about us having an opportunity to go to the Big 10. And everything else… I’ve already stated.
I would like to ask you… let’s say the Big 10 is a “no go.” What is your best outlook for Kansas in the future? Connecting in another conference? Or if we stick it out… can you project a little deeper into the future… beyond dollars and cents?
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@drgnslayr said in Big 12 Expansion:
Where will our kids be making their NIL? Maybe I’m off here… but won’t it be for selling carpet in Kansas City? Or BBQ? Won’t that be more localized $$$? Like… would Och be making money on his image in Michigan? I am thinking the big $$$ made from moving to the Big10 won’t be going to the athletes.
You’re right, they will be making money locally. But answer this - where can you make more money? Selling carpet in KC or selling carpet in Chicago? Advertising for a restaurant in Wichita or in Dallas? See where I’m going. The Big 12 footprint doesn’t have a lot of pull in the larger metro areas, so NIL $$$ will depress slightly. If you’re an athlete at UCLA or USC, you have all of LA at your fingertips. That will pay more than something in Lawrence. That’s the challenge.
@Texas-Hawk-10 if streaming is the future, again, will Jayhawk TV get as many subscribers as a network dedicated to Texas or USC or Cal? If not, the money just won’t be there because Kansas is a smaller state than a lot of these other places. That’s just the difficulty with the new deals out there.
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@drgnslayr said in Big 12 Expansion:
I challenge your view for us to go to the Big 10 but I appreciate your wisdom in this area. It is far deeper than mine. I openly admit to a simplistic view on this topic.
I am skeptical about us having an opportunity to go to the Big 10. And everything else… I’ve already stated.
I would like to ask you… let’s say the Big 10 is a “no go.” What is your best outlook for Kansas in the future? Connecting in another conference? Or if we stick it out… can you project a little deeper into the future… beyond dollars and cents?
You cannot take a simplistic view on a matter that is very complicated. If KU can convince the Big 10 to add KU, then KU needs to jump on that opportunity ASAP because it is a bigger benefit to the entire university and not just athletics which is what most people only focus on in these situations.
The Big 10 is generally regarded as the top academic conference among the P5 conferences and the Big 12 is at the bottom of the P5 in regards to academics. The SEC has significantly improved its academic standing in recent years with the 4 B12 schools it’s added because 3 of the 4 are AAU member schools and once Texas officially moves, it would give the SEC 5 AAU member schools whereas pre-expansion they only had two.
Being apart of the best academic league among major conferences has recruiting prospective students looking for a top academic school (there’s only 65 AAU member schools), it helps attract international students, especially from India and China because AAU rankings are currently emphasizing medical research. Medical isn’t the only emphasis, but it’s currently the largest.
Being in the Big 10 would allow KU to partner with other B10 schools on major research projects from government grants.
Travis Goff does have strong ties to the Big 10 so he can have conversations about what KU needs to do to join the B10 athletically amd pass on to Doug Girod what KU could do academically to help itself as well. Girod coming from the Med School has a lot as well because of the AAU’s focus on medical research.
Once Texas is gone, KU will be the only AAU member schools left in the B12. Houston would probably be the only other school that could gain membership as the school just approved building a medical school and became a Tier 1 research school not too long ago so they have significantly increased the school’s academic profile in recent years. Baylor is another possibility because they just became classified as a Tier 1 research school this year and ready have a College of Medicine, but I’m not sure the structure Baylor has between the main campus and the med school.
If KU can’t get into the Big 10, staying put in the Big 12 is the next best option. I’m also perfectly okay with Girod and Goff not publicly discussing the matter because it’s not a situation that needs to play out in public and Missouri basically making the negotiations public is one of the big things that hurt their chances at joining the Big 10 a decade ago.
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@justanotherfan said in Big 12 Expansion:
@drgnslayr said in Big 12 Expansion:
Where will our kids be making their NIL? Maybe I’m off here… but won’t it be for selling carpet in Kansas City? Or BBQ? Won’t that be more localized $$$? Like… would Och be making money on his image in Michigan? I am thinking the big $$$ made from moving to the Big10 won’t be going to the athletes.
You’re right, they will be making money locally. But answer this - where can you make more money? Selling carpet in KC or selling carpet in Chicago? Advertising for a restaurant in Wichita or in Dallas? See where I’m going. The Big 12 footprint doesn’t have a lot of pull in the larger metro areas, so NIL $$$ will depress slightly. If you’re an athlete at UCLA or USC, you have all of LA at your fingertips. That will pay more than something in Lawrence. That’s the challenge.
@Texas-Hawk-10 if streaming is the future, again, will Jayhawk TV get as many subscribers as a network dedicated to Texas or USC or Cal? If not, the money just won’t be there because Kansas is a smaller state than a lot of these other places. That’s just the difficulty with the new deals out there.
That’s not how NIL works. Playing for a school in a bigger market doesn’t guarantee a bigger payday. In the case of somewhere like LA, that’s a pro sports town and it’s going to be players from the pro teams getting the type of endorsement deals your talking about. The way NIL money makes it way to programs is through the school’s boosters and the companies they own paying athletes to promote those businesses on social media.
As for streaming, no, JayhawkTV is not something that KU should market independently. If you go into ESPN+, you can find hours of content produced by JayhawkTV there like “Miles To Go” and other stuff like that. Old football and basketball games, olympic sports archives, behind the scenes stuff. That’s stuff that adds value to JayhawkTV and if KU were to move to the Big 10, all that content moves with KU to be added to the BTN archives giving them even more content they can add. Then, when the Big 10 goes looking for a new media rights deal, if someone like Amazon or AppleTV get involved, the B10 can show them how many hours of content they have to sell, including JayhawkTV content and help increase the value of that type of deal because a lot of those deals are based on how many hours of content are being offered.
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This may be a stupid question, I’ve asked a few, but do our many wealthy alumni that are scattered around the country contribute to NIL’s?
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@justanotherfan do you think our ncaa championship game viewership is a good judge of that or not? https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2022-04-05/2022-di-mens-basketball-championship-game-sets-single-game-viewing-records
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Fascinating posts… thank you! I can get behind growth in academics!
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The new Big Ten media deal will be MASSIVE. Like over $1 billion per year massive. Pretty soon the gap between the two premiere leagues and the rest of the crew will be $50m+ per school per year. Not to mention the Big 12, ACC, and PAC will get worse networks, less desirable time slots, and less coverage on ESPN, ABC, CBS, and FOX.
Our ticket to a better league for KU is when (I don’t think it’s an if statement) the conferences tell the NCAA to screw off and take the basketball tournament into their own hands. Any other network would love to have the tv rights to a new Power 5 Invitational or whatever they call it. And KU would be the biggest beneficiary. Why, you ask? It all comes down to how the NCAA distributes Tournament revenue.
The NCAA Tournament takes in over $1 billion per year. How much of that gets doled out to conferences? Well, about $170 million. Each school gets one “unit” for making the tournament and another for each win. The value of a unit this year was about $340k. So KU earned 7 units for the Big 12 to split up among the 10 schools. Which is a ripoff! We should be getting A LOT more. But between the Tournament not being sold at market value (the NCAA isn’t maximizing the value at all) and the NCAA taking by far the largest share of a too small pie, the conferences are getting jobbed.
What if the power leagues started their own, similar to the football playoff? I’m glad you asked! The CFP distributes $74m per conference to P5 leagues as part of the bowl system, plus academic bonuses. And an additional $6m per league for each playoff team. And an additional $4m just for making a bowl.
There is a vast well of untapped value KU has if the leagues tell the NCAA to screw off.
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@Crimsonorblue22 said in Big 12 Expansion:
@justanotherfan do you think our ncaa championship game viewership is a good judge of that or not? https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2022-04-05/2022-di-mens-basketball-championship-game-sets-single-game-viewing-records
I don’t. The NCAA championship game usually has good viewership. You had a great game with two high profile programs. That should have high viewership. This wasn’t Texas Tech-Virginia. This was KU-UNC. I don’t think that necessarily translates to NIL, but it does help the overall college basketball market.
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I wouldn’t put the PAC into the same category as the Big12 or even ACC. I think the PAC has a unique demographic advantage that is very desirable-- the entire west coast.
My opinion: The 3 conferences with the best positioning for the foreseeable future are SEC, B10 and PAC.
These are the 3 Kings.
All 3 are headed toward a natural state of equilibrium that is 16 schools. The SEC is already there with the addition of Texas and OU. The B10 and PAC both have 14 schools, so they could add 2 schools each.
In this ecosystem, there is room for one more super-conference. (Four super-conferences provides 64 teams for a natural playoff bracket for all major sports. It covers the timezones for the networks and it avoids saturation.)
That fourth conference is to be determined… but the B12 and the ACC do not have the mass/gravity to hold together while in such close orbit. They will pull apart at some point and there will be reformation to a new conference of 16 schools that will join the 3 kings.
An inevitable game of musical chairs is coming. Any schools not already comfortably sitting in one of the 3 kings, would be vying for those 16 spots – including the remaining schools from the ACC, the Big12 the AAC and the Big East… not to mention a few from the Big West will try to make a case.
Avoiding this game of musical chairs is another reason (on top of all the points previously made) why it is important to secure a spot in one of the 3 kings… (and SEC and PAC are non-starters, so it has to be B10).
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Well, there goes KU’s shot at joining the B10…
Dwindling options. Join the PAC 12 or the B12 add two of the best remaining - CO rejoin and maybe AZ? Not sure they would have any interest…
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@DCHawker said in Big 12 Expansion:
Well, there goes KU’s shot at joining the B10…
Dwindling options. Join the PAC 12 or the B12 add two of the best remaining - CO rejoin and maybe AZ? Not sure they would have any interest…
ya does look that way if those two joined that would put the Big 10 at the 16 team , although I’ve never thought we were really in that serious contention. Not worried KU will figure this out
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The moving isn’t close to done
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This is interesting and surprising because usually the Big 10 has been interested in schools that share a border with current Big 10 members.
With the Big 12 hiring their new commissioner, I’m hoping he’ll look at further expanding the Big 12 by raiding the PAC12 and going after Arizona, Arizona St., Colorado, and Utah if UCLA and USC do bolt for the Big 10.
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@FarmerJayhawk said in Big 12 Expansion:
The moving isn’t close to done
How much more moving are you thinking? 20 teams? 24 teams?
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A bit concerning and discouraging as KU fan who thought the Big10 was the best resting place when the music stopped.
There are interesting opportunities for the B12 - Not only plucking some fruit from the Pac12 as was mentioned, but also from the SEC which might have a couple of schools rethinking their allegiances… And possibly ACC (which has been very quiet lately.)
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@KirkIsMyHinrich said in Big 12 Expansion:
@FarmerJayhawk said in Big 12 Expansion:
The moving isn’t close to done
How much more moving are you thinking? 20 teams? 24 teams?
24 https://twitter.com/genetics56/status/1542623835761033219?s=21&t=kS1iTgLGpPca_kJ7eJsZcA
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Hang onto your butts https://twitter.com/rossdellenger/status/1542654210306674688?s=21&t=-aAGNmgYxa1sic2rGR5wTA
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The news just said at 6 they’ve been accepted.
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@FarmerJayhawk said in Big 12 Expansion:
Hang onto your butts https://twitter.com/rossdellenger/status/1542654210306674688?s=21&t=-aAGNmgYxa1sic2rGR5wTA
Out of curiosity, would you rather UNC join the SEC or the B10? And how do you feel about not being in a conference with Duke?
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Media outlets in the Northwest are already reacting to the USC & UCLA departures, mostly with alarm.
Schools like Oregon and Washington (fiscally stable up to now) have a decision, according to one headline I just read: “Leave Pac-12 Or Be Content In A Declining Conference.” Already some rumors have the two schools off to another league, possibly the Big 10.
One issue for any conference taking them in: the fate of the rival programs at Oregon State and Washington State, which don’t have near the resources of their in-state counterparts.
(It makes one wonder how many KU fans would trade the K-State rivalry for a berth in a better conference.)
A lot of the blame for the LA schools leaving can be put on the last Pac-12 commissioner, who negotiated a terrible TV contract that put a lot of kickoff times way too late for viewers in the Eastern and Central time zones. I’m sure the Big 10 won’t have them play home games at 7:30 Pacific.
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@KirkIsMyHinrich said in Big 12 Expansion:
@FarmerJayhawk said in Big 12 Expansion:
Hang onto your butts https://twitter.com/rossdellenger/status/1542654210306674688?s=21&t=-aAGNmgYxa1sic2rGR5wTA
Out of curiosity, would you rather UNC join the SEC or the B10? And how do you feel about not being in a conference with Duke?
That’s tough. Culturally UNC is a much better fit in the SEC, but the SEC doesn’t have the Olympic sports or academics UNC really values. So I’d say Big Ten. Duke can rot in hell
