The Myth Of Three Point Defense And Ellis Success
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HEM, keep on pumpin’! I study every word you write. Sometimes I grow furious and inclined to counter your theses, but in the big picture I know less than dogturds about this sport. About all I really have a clue to is PEOPLE and HUMAN MOTIVES; and I know just a little bit more about those than I know about my own self. Several of you knowledgeable posters have really enlightened me about the game. I cherish the opportunity to read all these posts. I DID coach championship teams, but in a different milieu. I still barely know an X from an O.
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@HighEliteMajor Did you ever think that Self is protecting the long ball strategy for when he needs it most? The postseason?
I think Self knows how to win Big12 games and championships. He knows that he can impose his will on the rest of the league and tough out championship. He knows that hi/ lo wins confrence games. I mean, he has the statistical data to back it up.
But if he goes out every game now and runs an outside in gameplan, then he is “showing his hand”, so to speak. Why give tournament teams a wealth of video to study up on you and scheme to stop? Why not forcibly make this team good or efficient at the hi/ lo, so that when a team goes to shut that down, our 3 ballers will make it rain.Coach knows his team, I think you should give him a little bit of credit for being crafty here. I think he’s shaping this team to be the ultimate conundrum come March. He has a bit of sneaky devil in him, as we saw in the 2012 tournament with the junk defenses.
It’s hard to argue w your logic, I would just tell you that, maybe, his plan is a bit more than surface deep. RCJH
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@highelitemajor I am with @drgnslayr. Your post always challenge the way I think about KU. I may not agree with some aspects, but you have also changed the way I think about a lot of stuff too. Don’t stop!
What makes me wonder about this team is just the lack of 3 point attempts. Even for a Self team, it is on the low end. And on this team nonetheless, that is inexcusable. I only have two scenarios to why this is the case.
1.) This team doesn’t run the action and have the crisp passing necessary to get open looks from the 3. Past teams have shot more 3s with lesser shooters and a better post presence. This leads me to believe that we can’t make defenses scramble when they double Perry, the ball sticks when passing, and we lack crispness when setting screens and coming off them.
2.) Self knows that you can’t string together tough wins in the tourney without a post presence. If Self stopped trying to get the ball inside, does Perry progress like he has? I don’t think so. I have to hold out hope that Self will run more outside action since Perry has finally learned to always be in attack mode.
Or their is a 3rd option. And it is Self is either ignorant to not run anything for shooters or cares more about his style than he does getting wins.
I would prefer not to assume that last but the longer the season progresses, the more it is looking like a reality.
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@ZIG I, too, have sensed Bill Self’s craftiness in not pressing his potential outside-in offense for several weeks. We know it exists, even though in game minutes it grows rusty from disuse. If he can win this league title without it, will he allow it to emerge in the league tourney? Opposing coaches must plan warily. There is an edge in what he is doing.
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@ZIG Good point about the “junk” defenses. I too have wondered why he seemed to be sandbagging. It’s not like his guys have forgotten how to dial long distance. I fully understood the 2nd half vs KSU-we’re in a one & one 4 min into the 2nd half. We just couldn’t get calls on the road. I don’t think anyone does in this conf anymore. Is like the refs are all scared to make calls against the home crowd, unless its a hand check. Poorest officiating this year I can recall in a decade. Bigs beat hell outta each other & the little guys get called for touch fouls. Seems like refs just don’t have the balls to stand their ground anymore. JMO
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Second this motion of @drgnslayr .
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Great post, one of your best I have read in a long time. It goes right with the Feb 21st the day the season died post.
We certainly saw 20 different ways this team could lose a game but still pulled it out. If it wasn’t the constant fouling on drives, letting guards blow right by, terrible out of bounds defense, non-existent transition defense, missed shot after shot and yet we still won while making 1 3.
1 Three from Mason which totally changed the momentum of the game. This team thrives off momentum and to think that we wouldn’t want to use that to our advantage all the time is beyond me.
A blue blood team that knows who they are is Duke. They shoot the 3 religiously while doing enough of everything else to win games. A dominate 3 point shooting team comes to KU and Self does everything he can to kill that dream. We just have to accept that our coach don’t give a damn about scheming for any other way that he doesn’t see fit. We will either die with it or in the tournament this team will find ways to score from the perimeter.
I tend to think we will die with it but until we see how this team responds to tournament atmosphere/matchup I can’t predict for sure which team we will see.
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Great post and you make some great points. I’ve been thinking maybe HCBS has been purposely making us run our offense thru the post before anyone even thinks about a 3. Kind of an over correction to relying on the 3 for wins ? Hopefully when the tourney starts HCBS will open the offense up a bit and it starts raining threes again !!!
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Sure, the three could be KU’s strength, but it’s just not a magic bullet. We have to have a go-to guy when you need points.
Iowa State… also 2-2 last four games. Averaged 23 3-point attempts per game and made 35-92. That’s 38% which is pretty close to KU’s season average.
How did ISU do in those last 4 games? Same as KU 2-2.
Cold (6-20 from 3) @ OSU and won
Hot (12-21) @ TX and won
Ice Cold (6-24) Baylor and lost
Warm (11-27) @ KSU and lost
This is deep in the b12 and opponents know what you’ve got. So what do I get from that? Both KU and ISU need to have more than one weapon in the arsenal.
As far as I’m concerned, if the last 4-5 games have given Perry the lift he needed to be the go-to guy we didn’t have previously in crunch time, then GREAT. We can build on that better than shooting 25 three pointers the past four games.
All self has to do now is tell the little bulldog and Perry to kick it out once in a while, and maybe have Brannen actually move around to get open instead of pitching a tent out there at the arc. Get him him and Wayne out of the corners out another 2 feet and give them some space.
I’m actually happier with where we’re at now than after the TT game.
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@HighEliteMajor Just a speculation here, I think Cliff might be done for the season. We have a lot of basketball left. Given the impotency of our post offense and the holes in our perimeter defense. Do you think Self might be more likely to rely on our 5 or 6 guys that can get him fools gold points with drives drawing whistles and with treys? I mean, since we have to assume Cliff is gone, what else can Coach rely on? Like you said, its simple math. No way we make a deep run in the madness with reliance on Traylor, Lucas and Mickelson… Our “black hole at the 5.”
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@HighEliteMajor I would like to stress your point that KU Cannot Rely on Mason and Perry, Selden and Devonte and Oubre driving to the hoop to create shots and draw whistles near the bucket. It is “fools gold” as well. You all have seen the refs swallow their whistles against KU with almost regular predictability. What does anyone think will happen in the NCAA’s? Will KU miraculously get the whistles it didnt get during the conference like it should have?? Nope, I dont think so. Therefore, reliance on the drives to the hoop to draw fouls are also fools gold. KU cant rely on that either!
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@jaybate-1.0 Both you and @HighEliteMajor are giving very solid, rational logics to the state of KU ball and how Coach Self must proceed to win games. Something tells me that the truth lies somewhere in the middle of all of it.
I mentioned earlier we needed Devonte’ to have a huge game on tuesday. We also need the lid to come off the bucket for our 6 trey gunners. and we need Perry to continue to dominate. The WVU game on tuesday is a revenge game. Screw the conference title, this is for revenge. KU owes WVU a swift butt kicking. This is personal.
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@HighEliteMajor Someday you should tell us of your basketball experiences. Where did you gain your knowledge? Don’t think of it as bragging or anything, I’m just curious. You have an understanding of the game that most of us don’t have here. I sure don’t, I just like to watch the ball go in the peach basket more than the other team, although I really think we are not very good lately at putting it in the peach basket from that line that never used to be on the court.
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Interesting this post has been copied over to the phog.
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@DanR Great post! A lot of times us posters tend to think “if we only did this one thing…” when really it is so much more complex than that. Yes, this team has shown it can be a good shooting team. But why? As others have pointed out, they make open shots. Those same great shooters have not shown an ability to get open shots.
People point to Iowa State as a measure of a team who offensively gets open shots and takes lots of 3s. However, as you pointed out. They are 2-2 in their last four with high volume shooting at a decent percentage.
Can we get better and be more successful as a team. Of course. But at this point the ends seem to justify the means.
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@HighEliteMajor Or in other words, the game has moved on.
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“The game has moved on.”
You should have posted that to me. I’ve been ready to explode recently because of all the poor fundamentals in college basketball today.
When I was 14, and came in contact with my new coach, a guy I believe is as good as any coach ever to coach the game, in that first year he said to our team: “This year I’m going to teach you how to rebound.”
He had come in to take over on our team that was only a 500 team. After one year he turned us into an undefeated team. For the next several years… I think we maybe lost one game, a totally rigged game. In that first year, we remained a poor shooting team, but damn if we didn’t get every ball that hit the glass. We spent a big part of every practice working on rebounds only. Our coach knew he had us for a few more years so he made the investment on rebounding fundamentals in year 1. We owned the glass the remainder of our years. I owned the glass for the remainder of my playing days. Once you learn it, you own it.
Today, I’m old, slow, had multiple surgeries, including my knee. I can barely leap over a phone book. But I bet I could still get out there and own the boards. I’ve got more butt today, too… something big to plant on another player. 30 lbs more than my weight in my playing years… more lbs to torture other players with.
The players of today would leap right over me. Great… I’d be happy to take their fouls and shoot FTs…
The game has not moved on. The players have moved on. “Over the back” is still a call that gets whistled today. It is too bad that SportsCenter doesn’t run: “Top 10 Fundamental Plays” everyday…
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@drgnslayr Other than fundamentals, I seldom see an offensive team crashing the boards. I know they need one to hang back with the shooter to prevent a run out, but I see a lot of players on all teams flat footed. When an offensive player does crash the boards it often ends in a dunk and game highlight. I guess they end up taking a play off figuring a team mate will go get the ball-and then neither does.
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@drgnslayr Your wife is a tough Cookie.
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@drgnslayr Sure, fundamentals are fundamentals. But at the college level, you simply aren’t going to see smaller teams out-rebound taller teams on a regular basis. Size matters. Was there a 3pt shot in your playing days? Because there wasn’t in Bill’s playing days. The game has changed.
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@drgnslayr Alas, I remember one day shooting around with my kids-maybe 2,003, I tried numerous times and could NOT touch the rim. That was a day I never saw coming. And I am probably at phone book status myself these days.
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@jaybate-1.0 Only thing about the wvu game in Morgantown: After that ugly first 6-10 min, KU figured out wvu’s press…and had built up a lead, only to squander it in the final few min with help from refs.
That was the crux of my posts after that game: it took Staten literally everything he had to beat ku, and we solved their press. We wont start off so ugly against wvu in AFH. Now this team has knowledge…
Regarding the rest of the playstyle philosophical discussion (again most ardently and energetically reiterated by HEM), at this point I like @drgnslayr response…which in a nutshell was keep the opponent guessing…dont become 1-dimensional. Very curious to analyze the wvu rematch…
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Just was able to read thread in full … one of those killer work days. I don’t understand why work has to interfere with Kansas basketball.
Anyway.
@DanR - Remember, I have never said that three point shooting is a “magic bullet.” You are absolutely correct there, though, it’s not a magic bullet. In fact, I stated in this post again that three point shooting is not a panacea. And it isn’t. My discussion is solely directed toward an approach to offense. This guarantees nothing. It doesn’t guarantee a FF trip, or an NC. I just believe that it gives us a better chance to reach our offensive potential, which thus gives us a better chance at a FF or NC. We have the talent. Actually, I think we have top 5 talent in the country. And I would trade our perimeter players for any other team.
@benshawks08 - You touch on a great point. They shoot open three pointers amazingly well,; and actually, there aren’t to bad with a hand near, either. And you make a correct point. They haven’t shown an ability to create their own look – Mason and Selden, actually, had been very good with the step-back. If you have great three point shooters, that need more open looks, what might you do? And is there anything else on this team that we might say is “great”?
@ZIG - You raise a great point. And I have thought about that – is Self lying in the weeds, waiting to spring the perimeter attack when he thinks it’s is needed? That is certainly plausible. If he does, my “season died” comment will be revoked. My “bet” would be that Self isn’t planning a surprise. But I’ve lost bets before. It is a very realistic possibility. I do like it better than the “bad ball” alternative that @jaybate-1.0 has suggested – but’s he’s probably right. And I’m betting with him. Self has chosen the path. But if there is a March surprise in Self’s bag of tricks, the happiest guy on the planet will be me.
@jayhawkbychoice - See, I think you underestimate our offense. I really do. Is there another group of perimeter players you’d like to have over ours? Not me. You are right, though. This team has areas of weakness. Do we do a good job of masking those weaknesses, and exploiting our strengths?
I really like the fact that Self has Ellis driving the ball. This is a better option than pure post up. This creates better opportunities for him. I just saw him play amazingly well the last four games. We went 2-2. Compare to the halves/games when we have gone balls to wall from the perimeter. Those are the only times when we have really played well offensively, right?
@drgnslayr I do feel like I’m fitting the definition of insanity!
@Lulufulu You make a good point … if Cliff is gone, what do we rely upon down low? It seems reasonable that teams will really, REALLY try to take Perry away now. Maybe, as @Zig said, Self is laying in the weeds to throw the perimeter game gauntlet down in March.
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@BeddieKU23 made two terrific points.
First, what was the game changer vs. Texas? As @BeddieKU23 said, it was Mason’s three. That was THE momentum changer. 1-8 is not a slump as @wrwlumpy said. 1-8 is an opportunity. It is an opportunity to get back to your average – drill the 6 of the next 8.
Second, and perhaps your best point – Duke has shot 568 threes to our 466 three pointers this season. Digest that. Think about that. Man, you just gave me more ammo. That is absolutely incredible. That is almost a lead argument, worthy of a thread all of it’s own. I need to breath deeply …
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Gotta toss this in … @Jesse-Newell shot this out Sunday evening. A must read:
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“I do feel like I’m fitting the definition of insanity!”
You will never be considered a Kansas diehard if you aren’t insane! It goes with the turf!
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@HighEliteMajor We may have to agree to disagree on our estimate of our offense. I believe that our 3pt shooting the last few games is not a slump, as other have cited, but that we are simply shooting back to our average. You said 1-8 is an opportunity to get back to our average and go 6-8. I think the reverse is true. Our early hot streak was the opportunity and now we are shooting back down to our average.
Our 3pt shooting in those early games were WIDE OPEN looks that defenses were giving us. And yes, we were deadly with those looks and still are. But teams were giving us those looks because of the unknown. At the beginning of the season, opponents thought Perry and #5 recruit Cliff would be efficient down low and that Frank and Wayne could drive and finish in the lane. The unknown was Franks improved shot, Kelly’s shot, and Greene’s shot and ability to stay on the floor. Teams were packing it in on us. As time went on, opponents adjusted their game plan to us.
Now you believe Self just doesn’t want us to shoot the same shots as we did before. I think he would love for Greene to be left alone like he was in the early part of the season. So, how does he do that? Well to free up the shooters, or to scheme for them, you can set screens, drive and kick out, sharp passing and ball reversal, or let the shooter create space for themselves. All things that the players don’t do very well. Now is that his fault that they don’t do those things well? That’s debatable.
You say he should scheme for these things. Well, he can’t scheme a player to set a screen without fouling, thus resulting in a turnover. We tried that. Drive and kick out, we have tried that too. Everyone, but Frank, who did this resulted in turnovers. Frank did it well for awhile, but now defenses are staying with their man on the wings and letting Frank drive into the trees and be put to the ground. All of this is taking a physical toll on Frank, and it is starting to show up in other parts of his game. If we can’t get the ball across half court because Frank is to beat up to be effective, then we can’t shoot many 3’s anyway. Sharp passing and ball reversal, not exactly this groups forte. Letting the shooter create for themselves, well nobody respects Wayne and Greene as a slashing threat. Kelly has made some improvement on this of late, as has Perry. None of them can use a shot fake, or seem to be able to move through an offense, through screens, loose their man, catch the ball, maybe a dribble or two, turn, and make a shot. None of these guys can knock down a shot if they have to do more than catch the ball, set their feet, and fire. I know that the one 3 pointer we hit last game as Frank using a screen, but that was the exception rather than the rule. Which is why he got the shot off in the first place. If he took that shot 5 times a game, a decent defender would block it 3 out of 5 times.
I also don’t believe that all 3pt attempts are created equal, so to speak. I compare those shots we made early in the year to free throws because we were so wide open. If we can shoot, say (I don’t know what our % was, lets say 75% for example) 75% on wide open looks, and be able to scheme, and screen, and run action, and still shoot the same high %; that’s like saying Greene shoot 95% on free throws so we should scheme, screen, and run action to get him 15-20, 15ft jumpers all night. We both know those are two very different shots, and thus have a very different make percentage.
So Self knowing the reality of what he has (remember he sees these guys in practice everyday, and has probably tried all the things we’ve discussed) has to figure out how to get those same open looks he had before. How does he do that? By creating an effective inside game, or at least the illusion of one, to make teams have to help off the perimeter, or pack it in. A couple days ago, someone said, what happened to the 4 out 1 in offense, we could really spread the floor? Well it’s still there ready to go when we need it. It’s good that we have some experience with it. But I replied with, spread the floor for what? Teams are spread out for us. They definitely aren’t packing it in. Future opponents, especially the top 8 teams in the dance, aren’t going to let us beat them with JUST outside shooting. They will make Perry beat us mid-range or inside. Hopefully Kelly will start really helping mid-range and inside. Maybe a little from Landen, but I’ve given up on Wayne and Jamari helping much. Maybe some Devonte’.
So why not work on those things? Dropping a few games, playing a few close ones, in past years we have wanted him to do this to develop a more balanced team for the tourney.
I just don’t feel Self has given up on shooting 3’s. He’s developing other parts of the game. If being one dimentional inside is insanity, so is being one dimentional outside. I kind of feel like Self is the sane one here.
Ok, so let me answer your questions now. Though I’m not sure they are relevant.
“Is there another group of perimeter players you’d like to have over ours?”
Well I like our guys. I like watching them grow as players and overcome adversity. But if you’re asking about different guys to win a NC, well, I haven’t watched very much of other teams this year to know. But if I could go back to past KU teams, then yeah! The 03, 08, and 12 perimeter lineups would whip these guys bad. And the 2013 guys probably would beat this group too.
"Do we do a good job of masking those weaknesses, and exploiting our strengths? "
I have to say yes, because I don’t think we are even discussing the true weaknesses of this team. And while leading our conference and with a record like ours, everything we exploit is just another strength being found.
Thanks HEM, you really challenge my thought process. I paced my kitchen for 2 hours trying to decide how to respond. Then it took me another 2 hours to type it out, but I’m not a typist.
Whether I’m right or wrong doesn’t matter to me in these discussions, thank you for that.
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@jayhawkbychoice You would take 12 and 13 perimeter players over this year? I would have to disagree my friend.
Maybe 12 because EJ was in his true position as a 2 guard. But lets not forget he was pretty mediocre the first half of the season. Mix that in the Taylor (who I believe is one of the most underated players at Kansas in the past 20 years), and the lock-down D of Travis. I get that. But who was the first wing off the bench? Teahan. The walk-on who couldn’t dribble, play defense, run, or jump and was an average 3 point shooter. And the backup PG was freshman year Tharpe. Yikes. Fast forward to this year and replace Teahan for Greene and Tharpe for Graham. This is how I break it down.
Taylor > Mason. Mason is solid but Taylor was electrifying.
EJ > Selden. This is the only one that is not comparable. EJ is believe was not the shooter Selden is, but that’s it. EJ was better in every other category.
Releford > Oubre. This one is closer than you might think. Releford is a better defender and spot up shooter but Oubre is a better play maker and rebounder.
Teahan < Greene. Not close. Greene is better is every category expect maybe team defense.
Tharpe < Graham. Again not close. Tharpe could barely get on the floor with an extremely shallow back court.
I would consider it a push considering the starters are not on another level and the bench was way behind this years team.
And as for the 13 season with EJ playing of position, and Bmac not being a play maker also, This years team in its totality of depth shouldn’t really be up for discussion.
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Ah, I think Duke is in third place in their league.
On my back table at work I have a photograph of the 08 team and I look at it each morning when I start my day. I have so appreciated these guys not because of their success but because of there different talents collected up by the master and shaken out as a team. My job deals with training and building quality circles and helping the normal person grow into a success. In some ways I see this team more like the 08 team. If Kelly would hurt his knew after the tournament and before the draft and come back the comparison would be a mirror next year. We would have the guards, wings, and the inside game if we work on it. This year it seems like we have the 07 team. It takes time and a lot of reps. to build a BS team, and he will have another championship sooner rather than latter meanwhile we will just keep winning home games and more than half of our away games in the league and win the big 12 every year. That’s what Blue Bloods programs do.
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@JhawkAlum Well lets look at the numbers!
2015: Frank, Wayne, Kelly, Brannen, Devonte
2pt%/44% 3pt%/41% FT%/73% APG/10.3 TO/6.41 STL/3.82 PPG/41.6
2013: Bmac, TRele, EJ, Naa
2pt%/52% 3pt%/37% FT%/82% APG/12.1 TO/8.1 STL/3.86 PPG/43.2
2012: Tyshawn, EJ, TRele, Conner Teahan
2pt%/54% 3pt%/34.5% FT%/71.9% APG/11.1 TO/7.2 STL/4.6 PPG/40.8
Remember that’s a 5 man rotation against 4 man rotations. Pretty even numbers when you look at the whole picture. Throw in better defense from the 2013 and 2012 guys, and I’ll stand by my statement. We can also revisit these numbers at the end of the season, because I bet the 2015 numbers are on the way down with the grind of a long season and playing better competition in the Dance.
Also not to put anyone down, but I have to stick up for Conner Teahan a little bit. You say, “But who was the first wing off the bench? Teahan. The walk-on who couldn’t dribble, play defense, run, or jump and was an average 3 point shooter.” That description kind of sounds like a cross between Selden and Greene, oh except the “walk on” part. Conner has a NC ring from 08, and played 17 minutes in the NC game in 2012. He also played 37 minutes and went 4/4 with 12pts in our last game against MU. A very important game for us Jayhawks. I know the jury is still out on this years bunch, but none of them have accomplished anything close to what Conner has yet. Here’s to hoping they do!
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@drgnslayr Call me CRAZY!!
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@jayhawkbychoice Well those are pretty interesting numbers. It’s hard to argue since we all know the defense isn’t close. Can’t say you’re wrong there!
But about Teahan, no he was a mixture of Selden/Greene. Selden is just a better player. Faster, bigger, more of a play maker (not saying he is a good one, but Teahan had zero play making ability), better at defense, and the shooting is a push.
Greene is a more similar comparison, but we all know Greene could shoot Teahan out of the building. On top of him being fast and can grab a few rebounds.
Put Greene or Seldon on the NC runner up team and Teahan never sees the court. It’s as simple as that.
But again, those numbers comparing the perimeter players make me think!
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Did Bill Self open a jewelery store?
Saw this yesterday and thought of Bill Self and HEM!
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Interesting that you have to pass through the low post(s) to enter the store…
There is even a “NO PARKING” sign in the post area.
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Yep… She’s Serbian and doesn’t accept anything lame. Always pushes hard.
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@drgnslayr Here here. Earlier in the season, I too yelled at Self - let them drop 3s! We also know of too many good teams with co-dependency on 3s to drop like flies in March. So yes I too am embracing NO IDENTITY for this team. That said, sure hope Self has been building some weapons for March.
