2022-23 stats-PER, Kenpom etc
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@Jethro Yes, the SOS thing is baffling. It really doesn’t like teams that play defense is my observation. Wisconsin plays D but doesn’t exactly play UNLV Tarkball. So currently they sit 35th, while they have a 3-1 record against teams ahead of them, with the 1 loss of course being the OT defeat to us. Obviously then Wake Forest says well we beat Wiscy and they’re up there ahead of us so what gives? It’s why, I think, there needs to be some human element, as there is of course. I hate Iowa as much as any college out there and KP loves them. Iowa hasn’t visited the Sweet 16 since last century, heck, last millenium. Yet KP will keep them up there.
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Should be a fun update.
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Should be a fun update.
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Probably won’t get to it until tomorrow. We good tho!
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@BeddieKU23 Last few games have really changed the outlook with the computers. Great to have Self back.
I of course cheated and already looked but figure this thread is your thing.
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Feel free to post whatever you want my friend. Just busy today to run all the numbers but will have it up early AM Monday
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I think it matters WHEN we both played who we played. I’m not sure if it crystalizes our opponent’s ranking at the time we play them and then weights that moving forward… or goes back on our earlier opponents and updates their current ranking and applies it to our game?
Then it matters how our opponents’ opponents perform… and in theory, our opponents’ opponents’ opponents… and so on and so forth.
Sounds complicated… and it is… but a computer can mash any numbers you want so you can manipulate it and tell the story you want it to tell. Ooops… I gave away the punchline! lol
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IU fans raving about the Phog experience. It just blew them away:
https://twitter.com/AmandaPavelka3/status/1604678225963139072
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As promised, update after the Blowout victory over Indiana. That was fun!
Points
Jalen is 16 pts from 1,000. He definitely didn’t have his best performance Saturday. If he did Indiana would have started the bus home a lot earlier.
PER
Cam Makes one shot and now he thinks he’s Jank!
Kenpom
This is now a Top 10 Self Era team via Kenpom. Movin on up
Torvik, Massey, Sagarin, Bracket Matrix
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Thanks for putting together this data.
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Gradey and Jalen have VERY STRONG PER for non-bigs. Really insane for Gradey considering he is mostly a jump shooter too (I know he does some other things here and there but mostly).
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McCullar has 14 steals in his last 3 games. He’s turning out to be an amazing pick up.
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Creating the 3 headed monster at Wing. Self the last 2 years has bullied teams with elite wing play throwing waves of 6’6-6’8 wings at teams and there’s nothing they can do about it.
Kevin is a big reason why this team is trending up. He still has his moments like early in the Indiana game, but he’s been better than I even imagined. He wasn’t this good at Tech, flashed but has really thrived here so far.
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Yeah its crazy the balance they have right now according to PER. Bobby saw a nice jump from this past game in really his first extended minutes of the season. He’s capable of ascending up to the level others are at.
Harris at 18.6 is crazy, +7 from his career avg there. Let’s you know how good he is playing. Adams, same deal, +5 from a year ago. McCullar +4.5 from last season. These guys have improved a lot
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@BeddieKU23 Kevin is finally playing for a real coach
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@BShark said in 2022-23 stats-PER, Kenpom etc:
@BeddieKU23 Kevin is finally playing for a real coach
Ooof, that’s good and so true
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I know it’s early, but I like this team way more than last years team at the same time. Tyler Hansborough called us out as the hottest team in the nation right now, and I agree. The team speed and quickness, the passing, the smart basketball decisions make this a formidable foe. Also, we replaced one clutch scorer ( Remy ) with another clutch scorer ( Dick ). And if Zuby can continue to make strides, along with KJ’s breakout, I think we’re set at the 5.
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As unfortunate as it may be, a shot at repeating hinges on Bill finding something consistent from the bench.
If Zuby can give you 6 ppg a night and defend, that is all we need. And then one of MJ/Bobby/Yes have to become a consistent piece off of the bench. I’m a big Joe fan, but I really think MJ should be getting those minutes. I’m sure there is some stuff behind the scenes there (not sure if it is effort or attitude) but MJ just brings more to the table. He can finish in transition, he can switch defenders, and he is an elite athlete.
On the bright side, Joe isn’t THAT bad (we moan but he’s a pretty solid bench piece tbh). I just think a comfortable MJ in March is way more dangerous than Joe. I thought after the 19 points and 22 minutes he got vs. Texas Southern we were about to see some more of him. But that apparently wasn’t enough to get him out of the dog house…
If we flame out early and the bench only gives us like 2 points, this will be a season we ask “what if” about Bill’s usage of MJ. I really don’t understand him getting 6 total minutes in the last 2 games we won running away with it, but Bill is the GOAT for a reason. I will do my best to not whine about it, hoping that Bill has a plan to go back to back.
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I think we know why MJ has not been playing much. When you see how unselfish our team played and what the results were from that, that’s a big reason why. Gotta be sharing!
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Sometimes, the actions this team runs reminds me of Golden State. I don’t think it’s a coincidence.
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@Crimsonorblue22 said in 2022-23 stats-PER, Kenpom etc:
I think we know why MJ has not been playing much. When you see how unselfish our team played and what the results were from that, that’s a big reason why. Gotta be sharing!
While I definitely agree, I don’t think benching him is going to encourage him to shoot less. He needs to play more and realize that the points will come from moving the ball.
He’s not Cheik Diallo selfish… And he seems to say the right things when he gets interviewed. I just think he’s pressing because he expected to be playing. Just my thoughts from the few hours we get to watch these guys each week.
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I’m glad we finally have a big challenging for best player on the team with cam up there. He and Jank are clearly starters that self needs to get more playing time for. We talk about needing bench scoring. It’s right there with two elite players (statistically speaking) languishing at the very end of the bench.
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@Kcmatt7 in all honesty I don’t think selfishness is really the problem. It’s that the ball sticks when it gets to him. He’s still catching the ball, then thinking, then making a decision. Bill doesn’t mind if guys shoot open shots but he hates when the ball doesn’t move. The only guy that gets to stand a dribble is Harris and that’s because you know he is setting up the action for everyone else, directing traffic, getting the ball screens, etc. everyone else on the floors job is to move and when the get the ball keep it moving whether that is toward the basket or with a shot or a drive, or swinging the ball to the second and third or even fourth side of the floor. That’s what I’ve noticed is missing when MJ plays.
I think Udeh and zuby have been caught in that blender of ball movement and rotation as well as the other guys move it so fast it’s hard to keep up and be in the right spot.
It’s honestly astounding that Gradey and McCullar have both been able to play that way so far.
Same is true on defense. Bill demands you not only guard your man but react immediately to help and rotate. Help the helper. His best teams help the helpers helper.
The young guys are still in thinking then acting mode instead of reacting or even anticipating. I wouldn’t be surprised to see MJ have a few breakout games in February or March ala Malik Newman.
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I used to be one of Self’s biggest critics… afterall… I knew what was best for our team! (lol)
But I changed my perspective and stepped more out of my bubble. It wasn’t just that Self won his second national trophy (but it definitely adds to it). It wasn’t just Self’s amazing conference title streak (that may never be broken again in D1). Instead… over these past years I feel like I have a better grasp on Self himself.
I’m not about to pull out a Bill Self prayer rug here… though I do idolize his achievements. For quite some time I have realized that “hey, whatever it is he is doing… it is working!” That goes a long ways!
My old perspective was; how do I think we can improve to create more wins, more titles.
My new perspective is; I trust in Self and I’m going to be open to try to understand what he is doing and why is he winning so much!
Is the glass half empty or half full? Are you still harping on our loss to Tennessee? That came at a perfect time and we are already seeing fruit from that loss!
Self does want to play his bench more. I trust his word on that. I also trust when he decides to use it or not. We are about a third of our way way through this season with the best (and hardest) to come… I feel like we are ahead of schedule. Not sure if we are ready for conference play, but do we ever feel ready? The 5-spot needs time to resolve… but just look at how we are getting good production from that spot now!
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@benshawks08 said in 2022-23 stats-PER, Kenpom etc:
He’s still catching the ball, then thinking, then making a decision.
In football, that would be the punt returner who freezes and gets only 1/2 yard despite not getting hit until a full 2 seconds after catching the ball.
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Definition of teamwork: https://twitter.com/gorockchalk/status/1604891794260447232
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Big jump in polls. I guess you demolish a ranked team you jump in rankings.
I think the Tennessee loss is too fresh in my memory to anoint this team as a repeat threat. It has been fun to watch however.
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@benshawks08 said in 2022-23 stats-PER, Kenpom etc:
It’s honestly astounding that Gradey and McCullar have both been able to play that way so far. It’s honestly astounding that Gradey and McCullar have both been able to play that way so far. So true.
People are forgetting that MJ has been hurt and missed a good chunk of practice. A little like Remy did last year. It’s going to take some time before he gets it figured out. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him have a break out game soon.
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@Jethro totally agree and MOST guys don’t figure it out at Kansas right away.
What freshmen or transfers have really gotten it right away?
Off the top of my head I’ve got Kevin and Gradey, Dotson, sherron, oubre maybe but certainly not to the level of McCullar and Gradey. Who am I missing?
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@Kcmatt7 don’t get me wrong! We need him! He just needs to focus on D, passing and boarding. Get the ball moving to both sides. No sightseeing. Gradey is doing that, if he does that they will get him the ball. I’m sure they are drilling that into him in practice. If he’s smart he’ll listen to coach!
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NEED CHANGE:
We need to change the perspective that Joe needs to score. The guy can play, let him play if he scores or not. He definitely can play okay on defense and he has a great set of wheels.
When a player knows his minutes are determined by how many points he scores the pressure makes him play forced… over-thinking, stiff, and making mistakes. His play looks forced and sometimes he is taking forced shots.
This strategy is simply not going to work. Change the perspective on him and watch him step up, big time! Joe is a quality player that is in a place he shouldn’t be.
Unshackle him and watch what happens!
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@drgnslayr said in 2022-23 stats-PER, Kenpom etc:
NEED CHANGE:
We need to change the perspective that Joe needs to score. The guy can play, let him play if he scores or not. He definitely can play okay on defense and he has a great set of wheels.
When a player knows his minutes are determined by how many points he scores the pressure makes him play forced… over-thinking, stiff, and making mistakes. His play looks forced and sometimes he is taking forced shots.
This strategy is simply not going to work. Change the perspective on him and watch him step up, big time! Joe is a quality player that is in a place he shouldn’t be.
Unshackle him and watch what happens!
The stats do not agree fwiw. Maybe it would change with more minutes but the problem is he is at his best when he is ball dominant. Not what we want when we have Dajuan.
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I was skeptical on Dajuan last year. When he made some crazy layup, or shot, I was worried that it was fools gold and he’d think he can do something like that again and it wouldn’t work out because it was a very low-percentage shot to take. But he was steady and played within himself all season and the rest is history.
Fast forward to Saturday. The game had tightened up the second half. And in a span of less than 2 minutes, Dajaun put the game away. Pretty much by himself.
13:53 Dajuan Harris Jr. made Layup. 38 52 13:29 Dajuan Harris Jr. Steal. 38 52 13:24 Kevin McCullar Jr. made Layup. Assisted by Dajuan Harris Jr.. 38 54 13:10 Jalen Hood-Schifino made Free Throw. 39 54 13:10 Jalen Hood-Schifino made Free Throw. 40 54 12:54 Dajuan Harris Jr. made Jumper. 40 56 12:42 Trayce Jackson-Davis missed Layup. 40 56 12:26 Dajuan Harris Jr. made Jumper. 40 58 Timeout Indiana.And this stretch didn’t include any of his spectacular highlight-reel passes. He has come a long way in my mind and he legitimately must be one of the best PG in the country. He makes the guys around him better play after play and doesn’t force shots.
I was high on Yesufu, and I think he’ll be good, but he’s not where Dajaun is. I’m as surprised as anyone at how good Dajaun is. He was fantastic on Saturday.
KJ was really good too… Oh yeah, and Grady… but Dajuan was the glue and the difference maker in that pivotal 1:27 in the second half.
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@bskeet Juan and McCullar are two of the most dominant players absent scoring in the sport. They just create good things all the time even if it’s not them putting it in the bucket.
I agree we’ll need MJ before it’s all said and done. He’s too good (and that word choice is on purpose, he’s good, not just talented) to be in a slump all year.
I said this in the game thread, but we’re not close to our ceiling. I’m very confident one bench but will emerge (who? Idk, Bill would love to know) and MJ will get better. Bobby is obviously showing flashes, he just needs time. Given that everyone kinda sucks, I think we have as good a shot as anyone. But that is not a good chance. There’s too much parity in the sport this year for anyone to feel good about their chances.
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@FarmerJayhawk agreed that our chances are as good as anyone but still highly unlikely. Repeats just don’t happen that often and selfishly, I’d like this team to believe that no one thinks they can win this thing. Chips win Ships. Jalen was all in on the no one believed in us train last year and if we keep him there this year that can only be good for us.
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@benshawks08 couldn’t agree more. I get the feeling this will be a season of many ebbs and flows, and whoever gets hot in March will win. Like some random school could make a run. Could be us? But, like you said, not likely. After all, this was supposed to be a bridge year.
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Why couldn’t it be us!
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Stats are misleading. Heck… we should be starting Jank!
For the most part, Joe isn’t passing the eye test. I’m not saying he shouldn’t look for his shot… he should. Sometimes his stuff looks forced and it sticks out more when the rest of his team is playing like they are.
BTW: I’m a Joe fan!
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Glad to see someone else think like me that we can win another title, back-to-back!
But it’s a long season… let’s hope we stay healthy!
That Indiana game came at the right time… with us having to defend the paint. Spending the week working on that was not only brilliant but helping us for the entire year defend down low (which was questionable until now). We are starting to play like a really good Nova team!
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@drgnslayr said in 2022-23 stats-PER, Kenpom etc:
Stats are misleading. Heck… we should be starting Jank!
For the most part, Joe isn’t passing the eye test. I’m not saying he shouldn’t look for his shot… he should. Sometimes his stuff looks forced and it sticks out more when the rest of his team is playing like they are.
BTW: I’m a Joe fan!
I think he is okay but Self and this roster specifically are not a good fit for him.
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Not a good fit right now… but like I said, relieve this idea he has to score a bunch of points. Joe has great wheels and body. He can be another great defender for us if he was focusing heavy on defense and then letting his shot come to him.
He’s a guy that should represent quality bench depth… he’s not so far away from being that. Change his focus and watch what happens.
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@drgnslayr That’s not his game though, very hard to change at this stage.
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No player comes to KU focused on defense ahead of offense… except maybe Kevin! Oh… and Marcus!
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@drgnslayr I wouldn’t disagree with that but I don’t see it happening for Joe. At this point he has been here for over a season and Self has avoided playing him when possible.
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@drgnslayr said in 2022-23 stats-PER, Kenpom etc:
Glad to see someone else think like me that we can win another title, back-to-back!
But it’s a long season… let’s hope we stay healthy!
That Indiana game came at the right time… with us having to defend the paint. Spending the week working on that was not only brilliant but helping us for the entire year defend down low (which was questionable until now). We are starting to play like a really good Nova team!
You’re right, it is definitely a possibility. Other teams have done, why couldn’t we?
I also like the Nova comparisons. As you and I have talked about numerous times, the size of the team you have doesn’t matter if the players are skilled enough to negate that disadvantage. That’s how Nova beat Roy in 2016 in spite of Carolina’s vastly superior post presence.
A couple things I saw in the final four that Self used that give me confidence going forward is the trapping and posting up guards, both classic staples of Jay Wrights teams that we ALWAYS struggled with, and now we are not only doing it to other teams but defeated Nova using their own game plan! That first half defense against Nova was literally a combo of the 2008 champs and Novas 2016 team - very impressive.
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Oh this team can definitely repeat but it’s too early in the season to worry about it. The last 3-4 games have shown us a real glimpse of how good we can be and there’s several more layers I think this team can reach if certain guys continue to grind away. We may not have a perfect roster but our 1-5 can match just about anyone.
Right now KU has 4 starters good enough for First Team all Big 12. Voters would be lying to themselves if they didn’t see this as realistic right now
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@BeddieKU23 said in 2022-23 stats-PER, Kenpom etc:
Right now KU has 4 starters good enough for First Team all Big 12.
From your lips to God’s ears. Now that would be incredible.
