Data sez: Bill Self is frickin awesome
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https://twitter.com/hoopvision68/status/1072161035400986624
The chart shown here will captivate you for a long, long time.
But this is just another piece of evidence that reinforces what a HOFer Bill Self is.
He is world class.
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Thad Matta = Lon Krueger
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@bskeet That has to be one of the poorest graphs I’ve ever tried to read. Nice news on Bill, though.
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I’m undecided on what this graph proves. For example, Saturday’s win would be a positive datapoint on this graph. However, I don’t think anyone on this board is exactly thrilled about scratching out a 3 point win against New Mexico State. That game should not have been on this chart. KU should have won by double digits. But KU has a game or two like this every single year under Self.
Not saying Self isn’t a great coach, but this chart highlights both his strength (getting wins) and his weakness (allowing inferior opponents to hang around).
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justanotherfan said:
Not saying Self isn’t a great coach, but this chart highlights both his strength (getting wins) and his weakness (allowing inferior opponents to hang around).
That is not quite correct since you are assuming all the close games are against inferior competition which is not even close. Under Self, KU has played very strong schedules, typically the toughest among top 25 teams, so it should be expected that most games would be close. BTW, Coach Self is 20-1 against top 10 ranked teams…now, this is unparalleled.
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I believe they made another graph showing level of competition but I have not seen it. Some people asked if this could be broken down by “top 100” competition for example.
Overall though Bill is a Maestro in close games.
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@bskeet EXCEPT IN THE NCAA TOURNEY.
May need to add an * to your title
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Took me a while to find Krzyzewski. He’s right in the middle of the graph, but I thought he would be on the far right somewhere (large sample size). Only about 50 of his 1100 wins have been close? (from the graph, he’s won ~53% of ~90 close games)
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@tundrahok These are only games since 2002. According to the comments, that is when the KenPom era began. Total games, not wins, decided by 5 or less in the last 16 years. 50 needed to be included. Left axis is winning percentage in such games.
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@BeddieKU23 His very best was the national championship game. His 2nd best was the Misery comeback, and the most amazing of all was being down 11 to WVU with a minute left, and winning the game.
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It’s crazy that you mentioned the 3 games that immediately popped into my head.
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KUSTEVE said:
@BeddieKU23 His very best was the national championship game. His 2nd best was the Misery comeback, and the most amazing of all was being down 11 to WVU with a minute left, and winning the game.
@KUSTEVE @BeddieKU23 I’d add the 109 - 106 triple overtime win over OU in January 2016 to that list
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Best game of the year…
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Does anyone else think Bill uses the pre-season and to some degree the conference season to manufacture close games and those anxious moments in games where it’s set point and they must get a stop or get a bucket to pull out the victory? This could be why he has more close games than a lot of coaches, and he is VERY good at winning them because his teams have a lot of practice at it.
Specifically, it seems like he loves to tinker with substitutions, especially when the Hawks are on an offensive roll. I don’t think he likes KU to run away with a lot of big victories because he believes that not nearly as much is learned or experienced in a comfortable 15 point victory.
I think he prefers to create those “anxious moments”, as he calls them, late in games because of the mental benefit for the players come tournament time.
One thing I don’t understand is why he changes his use of words for post-season when talking about how the team needs to prepare for the NCAA tournament. Once the Big 12 tournament is over, he says things in the media like… “we need to play loose with a free mind”, etc. I think it actually hurts the team’s attitude when he changes his message prior to NCAA tournament games. I think the team would play better if he would keep the message consistent with prior to a game with K-State or Oklahoma, etc.
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@SlickRockJayhawk I would think the only words that matter, and the only messages that are directed to the players, are those he uses in coaching and counseling sessions. Any kid looking instead for direction from Self’s media comments, which are addressed to us unwashed masses, is going so far afield from his coach’s instructions that he is likely never playing a minute anywsy.
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My gripe is this.
If you want to build for close games, then a guy like Quentin Grimes needs to be on the floor in those tight games because you will absolutely need Grimes to win in March (and April). So if you want to play close games to get those reps in, Quentin Grimes needs to be in those types of games, not the latest security blanket (a la Morningstar, Traylor, Lucas, etc.). If you are playing close games and not getting experience for your highest ceiling players, you’re just running in place.
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@SlickRockJayhawk The post season is different. The mentality is different. Hence, the message is different. He’s assuming b4 the postseason, they already are playing with a free mind. he just wants them to play relaxed in the tournament- something we haven’t always done.
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Really good point. Self has to start letting Q work through some stuff and the NM St I thought was a prime example of that
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@SlickRockJayhawk He’s apparently giving the post-season message now.
“I think the guys, if they can kind of play with more freedom mentally then we’ll play better.”
http://www2.kusports.com/news/2018/dec/09/ku-coach-bill-self-seeking-mental-freedom-toughnes/
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Can’t believe I missed that one. One of the best games I’ve ever seen
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@BeddieKU23 I was at the Missouri, w Virginia and ou games! The West Virginia comeback when Perry got hurt was pretty good too. By the way, I’m going to the nova game!
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@dylans Coach K = Shaka
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@Crimsonorblue22 Have fun! Howz the ol’ knee doin’? Don’t destroy it by jumping up to cheer!
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@mayjay not great, steps kill me. Might have to find some strong, good looking young man to lend me a hand. Still doing pt. Going back next week, can’t wait
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tundrahok said:
@SlickRockJayhawk He’s apparently giving the post-season message now.
“I think the guys, if they can kind of play with more freedom mentally then we’ll play better.”
http://www2.kusports.com/news/2018/dec/09/ku-coach-bill-self-seeking-mental-freedom-toughnes/
Perhaps he is preparing for Villanova the way he prepares for a tournament game…?
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@Crimsonorblue22 Those guys tossing the cheerleaders should do.
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That’s great Crimson. I hope you have a blast and we all having something to cheer about after
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Have fun, enjoy the win and most of all, be careful with the leg…you don’t want to start the whole process all over again.
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Another follow up graph. Win% & Close Game % https://twitter.com/hoopvision68/status/1072947506974203909?s=19
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Add another game to the chart for Coach Self.
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@dylans December 27, 1962.
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approxinfinity said:
@dylans December 27, 1962.
Bill’s birthday is in less than two weeks. Hope he gets a couple of bigs for presents.
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@dylans
I mean what are the chances that two coaches who grade out as the top 2 on that chart were born on the exact same day. The stars were aligned.
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@approxinfinity The two active coaches with the longest conference win streaks too.
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Pretty awesome.
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A previous post asked if anyone else thinks Self manufactures close games. I submit he has been manufacturing close first halfs. Fire up the VCR and watch the substitution and plays in the last three minutes of the Villanova first half. Not complaining, just observing.
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He’s conservative – managing fouls and such – in the first half.
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If you know that you’re the master of winning games where no team leads by more than 3 possessions, and that you also have a hard time keeping the players focused with a big lead, or dealing with large momentum swings, could you see keeping the score knotted for as long as possible as being your best chance of winning? Also, maybe Self believes that by keeping the score close the opposing coach is much less likely to adjust at halftime?
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@approxinfinity RE halftime adjustment – that’s a really good theory.
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