Bracketology Time
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It’s a tough nut to crack. And it isn’t that Gonzaga isn’t good. They’re very good.
It’s that I think rewarding soft schedules is bullshit. It may be more accurate because of that. But you don’t KNOW that. Gonzaga could have easily been a 6 loss team in another major conference and far from a guaranteed 1 seed. As it stands now, all they have to do is play a semi- tough Non-con, not completely suck, and then coast through their league to an easy one or two seed. They don’t have to fight all season long like the rest of the country. They are allowed an off night without it hurting them because they played Portland State.
To me, that needs to be taken into account. They shouldn’t be rewarded with the easiest path to a Championship possible just because they won a crappy league with ease. Even if they might be one of the top 4 teams in the country.
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There has to be checks and balances to it all. Gonzaga shouldn’t be punished for the conference they play in (which I believe is ranked 8/32 overall). I know the perception of their league isn’t good but what conference gets any respect outside the Power 5 these days. Could they move? Sure they could but where as a basketball school only? They are limited geographically. They probably would have made a move by now if there was a win/win for them?
Not rewarding teams regardless of conference is just slanting it towards the Power 5 even more. KU gets the benefit of being in the Big-12 and getting sometimes a dozen Q1 and Q2 games from that alone. The Big-12 is down this year but yet has 7-8 teams that could make the tournament and a few of them with losing conference records. Not exactly “fair” either. The Big-12 will always be rated in the Top 6 or so conferences in the country.
I don’t know what the perfect fix is to rewarding teams. Gonzaga hasn’t won a title yet despite their easier path most years. They did make the finals in 2016. If they win the title with the easy path- meaning they received a #1 seed because of easier schedule during regular season inflating their team record/reputation/perception then there’s a legitimate gripe for the P5 squads that go through murder’s row sometimes before March even hits.
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We’re 7-2 in last 9. and 5 out of 6. Normally that reads hot team, but the loss to TT obviously was really bad. Hard to gauge where this team stands right now. As has been discussed, a 2 or 3 is much more favorable than a 4. NCAA has been seeding the thing to get marquee matchups for each round, like when they put WSU on the 8 line and we were a 1, or making UNC an 8 a few years back and having us in the 2nd round. So I wouldn’t be surprised if they put us with one of the bluebloods who will likely be a 1 seed and make us a 4. They’d love to see us in a sweet 16 match with a blue blood.
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In order for this team to get to a 2 seed I think they need to win out and also get some help. Duke, Zags, UVA, Tennessee, UK, Michigan, UNC, & Texas Tech, are all clearly way out ahead of KU. Actually now that I look at it I am not sure they can get a 2 seed. They for sure would have to win 5 straight games to be in the discussion.
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@BeddieKU23 I think that the entirety of basketball needs a schedule overhaul that attempts to at least balance out schedules for comparisons sake and as much as logistics will allow…
In theory, you could have a shorter conference schedule, say 14 games max, 4-5 games of your choice (For the tournaments and Champions Classic types), and 12 “regional games” as competitive balance measure.
Off the top of my head, all teams not in the NET Top 130 are put in one pool to fill their schedule, while the Top 130 teams are split into ten 13-team groups and play 12 games against each other.
This would allow us to get 12 good looks at some of the smaller schools in a direct comparison against the big boys. At least this way, we could say that everyone got a fair shake…
Thoughts?
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The first question I have is how do you rate the Top 130 before the season starts. There is so much unpredictability with teams from year to year especially now with rampant transfers, coaches pole jumping for other schools that I think using the prior years ranking in the NET isn’t fair enough, especially for mid-majors that usually rely on upperclassmen to build success while its easier for Power 5 and elite teams to just simply retool a whole starting 5 because they can recruit better players.
It’s not a bad idea to give everyone a shake at a set of games against each other. I’m open to anything.
I think the 18 game conference slate is too many games especially in a 10 team league like the Big-12. I used to like the round robin schedule but even that has its drawbacks for the league overall.
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@BeddieKU23 In my head this is how it would work:
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5 games of any choosing. You can play tournaments or 5 tune ups. Whatever, doesn’t matter.
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Then, start Conference play Dec. 1. Two- ish games a week for 8 weeks. Which would shake out to be late January.
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That’s when the regionals start based off of the NET ranking from the first 18-19 Games. 6 weeks, two games a week.
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Then the Conference Tournament (if we still want to do this) and it would start at basically the exact the same time it always does.
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Speaking of brackets, big 12 one. If we tied Tt, who would get the 2 seed? I heard if we tied KSU, we would. Not sure about second w/tt. Trying to figure work schedule.
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@Crimsonorblue22 http://www.big12sports.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=10410&ATCLID=1520897
I think if we tied, we would end up the 2 seed, Tech the 1 and KSU the 3. It would come down to overall winning percentage I believe, since we all split.
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@Kcmatt7 I mean, KSU 1, tt and us tied for 2nd. Didn’t read that, busy
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@Crimsonorblue22 I think we get the 2. Based on record vs. the next team in the standings…likely Baylor but mayber ISU.
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The chart showing #3 and #4 against the field all time is really illuminating. There’s a much bigger difference between these seeds than I realized (4 seems much more likely to be upset by a lower seed.)
Thanks for sharing that.
As for where we would like to play-- I guess the only place that is safe is AFH this year. Unfortunately, being shipped to play 50 miles away might be too far for this team to feel a ‘home’ advantage.
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KU is now a 4 seed in Lunardi’s bracket and a 5 seed in Jerry Palm’s (CBS) bracket. I think that is where they end up unless they lose Saturday and or Thursday night then I could see them even being a 6 seed.
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Have to pray we can hold on to the 4 seed. And I think it will take quite a bit of urgency by this bunch to do so.
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I’m not seeing how Indiana or Texas could get in at this point, I think they would’ve to at least make their conference championship games at this point.
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Money
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Conference champs that KU beat this season: Vermont, TTech, KState, Michigan State, Villanova and Wofford. Tennessee, Marquette somehow let conference leads slip away, or we could have had more. Of course most of those wins were KU with Doke and with Happy Vick. Still, we have an impressive body of work without any terrible losses despite our sorrows.
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@wissox WVU was a terrible loss.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 it really was, ASU is probably gonna end up in the tournament but those two games make the tournament in KC a must win IMO to get a 3 seed. The maddening part of is that we lead those game for like 68 minutes, the ASU game we didn’t trail til just over a minute left. I think if we’d won those and win in KC we would be in conversation for a 1 seed.
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Lunardi has Texas still in at a 11 seed currently, if they lose to us Thursday no way they get in. They really shouldn’t be anyways but @BeddieKU23 said having a big fan base makes a difference generating money. I’m just trying to think of .500 team that got in or was even on the bubble (not winning conference tournament), I don’t know that I can name one. I thought that was a driving force in this new NET, to not get some of the below average power schools out. I’d rather see Lipscomb (beat TCU on the road and lost by 4 to Louisville) or Belmont in than Texas.
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No team has ever made it as an at-large with 16 losses. They won’t be in if they lose Thursday. Heck even if they win Thursday and lose after they still will have 16 losses. They should have to make the final and make it entertaining to get a bid. Crazy how much wins against UNC and KU are helping them.
I hope the committee puts the end to these mediocre teams making the field. 15 loss teams deserve the NIT
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wissox said:
Conference champs that KU beat this season: Vermont, TTech, KState, Michigan State, Villanova and Wofford. Tennessee, Marquette somehow let conference leads slip away, or we could have had more. Of course most of those wins were KU with Doke and with Happy Vick. Still, we have an impressive body of work without any terrible losses despite our sorrows.
agree. I just think if and I Realize that’s a BIG IF but if we roll - if Quentin continues to show a little more upside - If Dave can compete which he has been and showing improvement then there is no reason why we can’t play in this Big 12 Championship game and get through the 1st weekend of the tourney.
However I just feel that anything past the sweet sixteen would just be pure gravy - - I just don’t see anything after that - -just not consistent enough - -unless we can take better care of ball control, shore up the defensive effort a lot better. -I’d say a sweet sixteen would be the ultimate for the guys this year. - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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Saw bracketology this morning - -Jerry Palm & Joe have Kentucky & Duke in the same region - pretty tough. - -Got us in as a 4 in the same region I think it was the East with #1 Virginia
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@jayballer73 hope not. I don’t want to see UVA.
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Earliest they’d meet is the Sweet 16. Virginia could always lose in the first round again as well. Additionally if this team makes the S16 I’m considering it a successful season. I’ll be happy with 1 tourney win tbh
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Bracketville (Typically one of the better ones) has us as a 4 seed in Louisville with UNC, Tennessee and Purdue. As well as a struggling Marquette as the 5 seed.
I would not be unhappy with this.
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Can we book it today!
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We should also be thinking about possible 11, 12 and 13 seeds we don’t want to see. Vermont, St. Johns, Murray St., Temple, New Mexico St (though they wouldn’t do a rematch I don’t think).
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@HighEliteMajor I’d rather not get depressed. Ohio State or Clemson could be a 12 seed if we end up losing Thursday and we end up a 5 seed. I think we would lose to either team.
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If brackets are truly fair, the Big 12 should only get 6 or 7 teams in. There’s no reason that all three of Texas, Oklahoma and TCU should make the field. Similarly, both Clemson and NC State from the ACC should have some work to do to get into the tournament. I’d have similar questions for Minnesota, Ohio State and Indiana. Of those 8 major conference teams, I would argue that maybe 4 should make the field instead of all 8 (For me, it would be TCU, NC State and Minnesota only, but the committee probably picks more).
Being mediocre in a major conference should not get you into the tournament. Indiana is mediocre. So is Oklahoma. So is basically everyone in the PAC-12. If the PAC-12 wasn’t considered a major conference, they would only be sending their champ to the dance.
It’s time for the NCAA tournament to stop rewarding the mediocre teams in major conferences. I watched Murray State and Belmont on Saturday. Both of those teams looked like NCAA tournament teams (9 losses between them). And yet some major conference team with 13 losses will probably go to the tournament ahead of Belmont (the loser in the conf. title game). Mid majors and low majors only get two or three shots at good wins each year, usually on the road. Look at Oklahoma’s road record against potential tournament teams - lost at KU, Texas, K-State, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Baylor, won at TCU. Didn’t play another non-con road game against a potential tourney team. You can do this with almost every “bubble team” from a major conference and find almost no quality road wins. Why should Oklahoma get credit for going 1-5 against KU, K-State and Tech. NC State’s best conference win is either Clemson at home or Syracuse at home. If you gave Belmont home games with UNC, Virginia, and Virginia Tech and road games at Duke, Florida State, Louisville and UNC, they would do no worse than 0-7, which is exactly the mark that NC State posted in those games.
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approxinfinity said:
@jayballer73 hope not. I don’t want to see UVA.
you and me either one - - that would not be good.
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HighEliteMajor said:
We should also be thinking about possible 11, 12 and 13 seeds we don’t want to see. Vermont, St. Johns, Murray St., Temple, New Mexico St (though they wouldn’t do a rematch I don’t think).
Actually I think Ol Joey has us matched against Murray state if I remember right. - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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BeddieKU23 said:
Earliest they’d meet is the Sweet 16. Virginia could always lose in the first round again as well.
Lol, they won’t. They didn’t shoot the 3 nearly as much last year as this year. Their pace of play has sped up, their scoring averages have increased, and they’ll have 3 long althetic two way players in Hunter, Diakete and Huff that they didn’t have last year.
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I agree I don’t see them leaving early this yr. They will be motivated to win those early round games. However if Self has a week to prepare for a team that’s his best chance and getting to play the underdog role…
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I see no chance Virginia goes home in the first round again. That was the law of averages finally kicking in, statically it should’ve already happened a few times before that. I did get pleasure in it not being us and after several experts said we could lose to Penn(highest rated 16 seed since 2013, whom we also faced). Murray State is a team I want no part of. Georgia State, Vermont and them are some teams that could be sleepers.
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kjayhawks said:
Murray State is a team I want no part of.
Worked out pretty well the last time we played them
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After seeing some upset again today to top seeds in some of the non power conferences. I don’t think TCU or TEXAS gets in and I honestly agree with it. I’ve stated several times how I’m not sold on this league but this new system was supposed to help some of those smaller teams and prevent an OU type deal from last year from being a OAD.
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Currently Lunardi has us as a 4 seed with Duke the 1 in the south. That’s something we would love to avoid. Let’s get a win tonight and get up to the 3 line!! Rock Chalk.
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Hmmm … in a year where we’re down. Maybe the chance to upset Duke could be the greatest opportunity of the season? Wouldn’t that be sweet?
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@HighEliteMajor I can’t think of many things better than ending Duke’s season two years in a row.
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I don’t think we should be lower than a 3 seed right now. If we win today we’re securely a 3 and arguably a 2.
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I think KU has to win tonight to have a chance at a 3 seed. They have zero shot at a 2.
Gonzaga, Virginia, Duke, UK, Sparty, UNC, Tennessee , and Michigan will be the top 8 seeds.
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They should be a 3-seed right now. Florida St and Kansas should be on the 3-line and LSU and Purdue should be on the 4-line. Purdue is a 3-seed ahead of Kansas. Kansas (23-8) has a better record than Purdue (23-9). Kansas has more Quad 1 wins and a better SOS (11 and 1, respectively) than Purdue (7 and 14, respectively). It’s an error to have Purdue ahead of Kansas right now. LSU played a weak non-conference. They lost to Florida St head-to-head. They lost to Oklahoma St by 13. They have a weaker SOS and fewer Quad 1 wins than Kansas. If Kansas wins today they are a lock for a 3-seed. I agree they probably won’t jump anyone as a 2-seed, but you could argue by the numbers that they deserve it.
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We could beat Duke without zion
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@KirkIsMyHinrich A big difference between Kansas and LSU and Purdue is that LSU and Purdue each won their regular conference titles. The SEC and B10 are very good leagues and you have to be a good team to win those leagues.
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The big 10 had 9 teams with losing records in conference play. What a great conference
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@Texas-Hawk-10 Purdue only had to play Michigan, Wisconsin, Maryland, and Iowa 1 time in conference play because of schedule imbalance. LSU got Alabama twice, Georgia twice, Florida twice, Arkansas twice, and Texas A&M twice. They only had to play Kentucky, Tennessee, Auburn, South Carolina, Mississippi St, and Ole Miss one time. In fact, LSU only had to play one ranked team on the road in conference play and that was at Kentucky. Regular season titles mean less in conferences where you see huge schedule imbalances like the Big 10 and SEC.
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BeddieKU23 said:
The big 10 had 9 teams with losing records in conference play. What a great conference
Not 9 teams and the top and middle of the B10 are still better than the top and middle of the B12 this year.
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Your right it was only 8. Not much of a Difference. We disagree about anything else
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@HighEliteMajor Who would guard zion? We have no one who could…ot their big guy for that matter. They would beat us by 30 I hate to say.
