Best offense in NCAA basketball
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I can see several 90+ point games on the schedule and a season average of 85 ppg does not seem that far fetched. The good thing is that just about every player is capable of scoring, obviously some more than others, but it would not surprise me to see Dedric, Vick, Moore, Grimes and Doke have 25-30 point games. If a player is having a bad day, there is another ready to take over the slack. This team is as deep as last season’s team was thin; at least 2 quality players at each position with most being able to play multiple positions.
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I think Self will go with 9 players: Dotson, Grimes, Vick, Dedric, Doke and Garrett, Moore, KJ, and De Sousa. That leaves McCormack, Lightfoot and Agbaji. In my opinion McCormack should be the first player off the bench in that group. He’s almost in his own category. Maybe we can call him a super reserve. He can play if a player is ineligible, or if there’s foul trouble, or if a player is injured, or if Self is just pissed off at the regular rotation players for some reason.
The two bench players who I am really excited for are Garrett and De Sousa. Both players had good moments as freshman last season (Garrett throughout the season and De Sousa at the end). Garrett was above-average at just about everything except shooting. And the rumor is he’s been working on that this offseason. If he can become an average shooter, or at least improve his free-throw shooting, I would seriously consider starting him. De Sousa kind of reminds me of a more skilled and bigger Jamari Traylor. He has the most upside of any big man on the team and I would give him as many minutes as possible.
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Don’t count Mitch out. He bulked up big time in the off-season and his already good outside shooting is even better. Keep in mind that he was the best shot blocker for KU and his additional weight will allow him to match up with bigs better than he did before. He is now a stretch 4 that can draw his man out and open up the middle. So many options, so little play time.
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@Kcmatt7 McCormack is good but I still don’t see him getting much run as long as Silvio can play.
@JayHawkFanToo I think that 40% number is ambitious. Moore was 35% in his one year at Cal and Vick in his two seasons playing real minutes is at 37% each year. If Garrett gets to 35% or higher I’ll buy you a beer for that prediction. If the Lawsons can both be in the 33% range that would be pretty great. I’m still hopeful that Moore is a 15 mpg tops guy so I don’t think he will have any 25+ point games.
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If you read the interviews with team players throughout the summer, all indicated that Moore is a much improved shooter and currently not only the the team’s best 3 point shooter bu also the fastest and at time unguardable. I see him averaging 20+ mpg, at least until Dotson get acclimated to college ball.
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@JayHawkFanToo I think we will see some of those too. But I think Bill, more likely than not, won’t let us play at a pace that allows us to average 85 ppg for an entire season. A full two points better than his BEST scoring team in 15 seasons seems unlikely. Possible, but just not likely.
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Lip service imo. Dotson is faster with the ball and has better PG instincts from what I have seen. Obviously we need to see Dotson play real games at the P5 level. Moore is more of a scorer and definitely a better shooter than Dotson.
@Kcmatt7 Yeah, even last year KU was #144 in adjusted tempo.
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I think this will be a great scoring team, but I don’t think this will a great shooting team like we’ve seen the past couple of years. I don’t see anyone being 40%+ shooter from deep that you have to guard.
I foresee a lot of teams packing the paint and forcing KU to try and beat them from deep. I think we’ll see some games this year where KU goes 7-8 minutes without a FG because this isn’t a great shooting team.
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Last season KU did not have the depth to play up tempo. Graham was needed to play close to 38 mpg, Svi said that he would like to play about 28 mpg and averaged about 35, Newman averaged about 32 mpg and in the important games their playing time was even higher. If KU went up tempo they could not have played that many minutes. Even then, the team averaged 81.4 ppg and there is no question this is better and much deeper team so 85 ppg seems realistic; keep in mind that OU averaged 84.9 ppg last season and this KU team is much better.
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In the Bill Self Era, Kansas team points per game are as follows:
03-04: 75.7 ppg
04-05: 75.0 ppg
05-06: 74.3 ppg
06-07: 78.4 ppg
07-08: 80.2 ppg
08-09: 76.4 ppg
09-10: 81.6 ppg
10-11: 81.2 ppg
11-12: 73.9 ppg
12-13: 75.2 ppg
13-14: 75.2 ppg
14-15: 71.1 ppg
15-16: 80.2 ppg
16-17: 83.2 ppg
17-18: 81.3 ppg
Kansas has had six teams that averaged over 80 points per game. In those seasons, the team’s 3-Point Field Goal Percentages were:
07-08: 39.7 3P%
09-10: 40:4 3P%
10-11: 38.2 3P%
15-16: 41.3 3P%
16-17: 40.4 3P%
17-18: 40.1 3P%
I’m not sure that this season’s KU team will even have a player that shoots better than any of those averages. Maybe a few players will surprise us and shoot lights out, but it will be hard for KU to be at 85 points per game unless that happens. On the other hand, I’m not sure KU has ever had a group of players this dynamic in the front and back court in the Bill Self era. So it’s a bit hard to judge for that reason. In my opinion this seasons Kansas team is going to more closely resemble some of the juggernaut Kentucky teams in terms of dynamic ability, but with a little bit less talent and more experience. For what it’s worth, Kentucky’s two best teams under Calipari (the 11-12 and 14-15 teams) were not great 3-point shooting teams or great scoring teams. The 11-12 team averaged 77.6 points per game and shot 37.7% from 3. The team that a lot of Wildcats fans consider to be the best Kentucky team despite not winning a national championship was the 14-15 team that went 38-1 and lost to Wisconsin in the final four. They averaged 74.4 points per game and shot 34.9% from 3. So the good news for this season’s Kansas team is that there is precedent for being really really good without being a fantastic 3-point shooting team.
I think this season’s Kansas team will average 79 points per game, allow 63 points per game, and shoot 36% from 3. The only way they average more than 85 points per game is if Roy Williams comes back to coach.
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@KirkIsMyHinrich Exactly. History says this team will not score 85. And that it is a concerted effort by Bill to do so. He wants to play a pace that is fast enough our opponents get tired and depth is an issue, but not so fast that we take bad shots.
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Yeah KU isn’t getting to 85 a game unless it’s the best team ever under Self. I think the 82 in my projections could be tough, but I believe the overall talent level of this team is pretty good.
@KirkIsMyHinrich Lol. I kept trying to at your other username that I know and was wondering why it wasn’t popping up here. Anyway, if KU defends at the level of those UK teams watch TF out. Those UK teams were pretty damn good offensively, good enough considering their stifling defense and pace.
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Thx for the numbers and analysis.
The most conspicuous thing about UK under Cal—maybe even beyond how many OADs he signs and gets cleared—is how few rings he has won with so many more OADs than Self has had. Each coach has one ring. But Self has NEVER had remotely as many OADs signed and often cannot get some of those he signs cleared to play.
Maybe the analogy with those UK teams of ‘12 and ‘15 calls attention to an underlying flaw in Cal’s ”system” of starting so very many OADs and TADs.
Maybe Cal’s OAD and TAD laden teams are too poor of 3pt shooting teams to keep from being upset in the Carney, where one off shooting game by UK, or one hot game by an opponent wipes out the OAD/TAD advantage?
Think about it.
Maybe Cal has to have 6-8 of the highest ranked 20 players in the country to even have a prayer of winning a ring, because they just don’t tend to shoot a high enough average from trey-ville?
UW, which upset ARGUABLY one of UK’s two most talented teams UK has had—had great perimeter trey shooters and a footer that could make the trey and pull UK bigs out.
Put another way, maybe it takes 6-8 of the best freshmen in the country to offset mature opponents upsetting you with great 3pt shooting on hot games in the Carney?
Thus two questions arise about this year’s KU team:
a.) does KU have 6-8 of the 20 best freshman; or
b.) does this team have enough maturity and 3 point shooting percentage to offset other mature teams with great trey shooting on an opponent’s hot night?
KU appears to lack sufficient OADs to win the pure talent route.
Alas, KU also seems to lack the combined maturity and 3pt shooting to win the other way.
So: KU should be very good, but have a low probability of avoiding upset.
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Ah JB, ignoring the facts once again to spin a yarn. 2012 UK had 3 OADs. They only really played 7 guys and the 7th guy played 12 minutes a game. That Wisconsin team in 2015 had two guys at 40% from 3. Then another two in the high 30s. One of their guards that played 24 minutes a game was at 28% and Dekker who was one best 4 players on that team was at 33%.
I wanted to ignore this, but it was so wrong the corrections had to be noted so that no one potentially believes it.
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@BShark Why would we let a few facts get in the way of a good ole Cal bashing? Facts/Schmacks JB, Cal/Kentucky bash away. I love it.
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@JayHawkFanToo So, when Dedric takes a breather, what do you think the substitution order for him will be? Silvio, then Mitch? That sounds great to me.
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stoptheflop said:
@BShark Why would we let a few facts get in the way of a good ole Cal bashing? Facts/Schmacks JB, Cal/Kentucky bash away. I love it.
Ha!
I’m definitely no fan of Cal. I don’t even think info has to be twisted/distorted to say his title record at UK has been disappointing. Hell I think UK fans would say that at this point.
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There are always criteria that humans set up in order for something to happen, based on past results. Kenpom has his formula - top 25 in adj offense and defense in order to win the national title. And that works until it doesn’t, and then they’ll reinvent the formula, or call it an anomaly. The one formula I know that can be counted on everytime is you have to have more points than your opponent. Now, whether that’s outscoring your opponents, limiting your opponents, or a combination of both is always going to be the rub. The reason I have so much faith in this team is the ability to change the lineup to match whatever style of ball we’re up against.
A one dimensional team is going to be at much greater risk of getting bounced than a team that can adapt to whatever style of basketball it is facing. Case in point are the Mighty Wahoos, the number 1 overall seed in last year’s tournament, who were flat chewed up and spit out by a tiny little team …UMBC. UVA was up against a 4 out, speedy team that was hitting all their shots. The vaunted pack line was eaten alive, as UVA sagged to the middle of the lane, and was eviscerated from outside. UVA had zero depth, and couldn’t match up to save their lives. A little like VCU vs us many moons ago. A little like we looked against Nova. We just couldn’t match up. Does that mean all is lost? Far from it.
We’ve never had the depth like we have this year. We can play 4 out, 2 bigs, 3 bigs. We can play any way you want to play. Throw the formulas out with this team. We have the personnel to stifle the perimeter, and dominate from inside. There won’t be a team in America we can’t match up with. Take Dedric away, and we have a slew weapons at every position. Double Doke? You’ll pay through the nose. You can’t double team every player. And the beauty is…the team is just going to get better and better and better as the year goes on. This is going to be a memorable year for us.
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Will Self have line-up and minutes flexibility remains to be seen. It’s going to be a fun season.
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stoptheflop said:
@JayHawkFanToo So, when Dedric takes a breather, what do you think the substitution order for him will be? Silvio, then Mitch? That sounds great to me.
Good question. It really will depends on the scheme Coach Self chooses to play. At this point I see Silvio spelling Doke rather than Dedric, at least until Big Dave is up to speed, which by extension means Mitch would go in for Dedric. Almost all of the KU players can play multiple positions. Looking at just the bigs…Dedrick 3-5, Silvio 4-5, Mitch 3-5, K.J. 2-4, Big Dave primarily 5 but could also play 4 and a Doke being the only that wil play only 5. Coach Self will have a lot of options and a lot of pieces to fill the spots.
Coach Self and many others have indicated that by conference time they like to have a 7 or 8 man primary rotation; this might be the year where he uses an extended rotation.
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I’d much rather see KJ at the 4 over Mitch.
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Probably more like Garrett for Dedric as KJ slides over from the 3 to the 4.
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Moore’s defense scares me more than anything else. I think scoring won’t be much of an issue once they establish an identity. I hope Dotson or Moore can cut off the attack at the point on D. That completely changes the game. If it’s no D from the point guard position watch out.
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dylans said:
Moore’s defense scares me more than anything else. I think scoring won’t be much of an issue once they establish an identity. I hope Dotson or Moore can cut off the attack at the point on D. That completely changes the game. If it’s no D from the point guard position watch out.
Dotson has the tools and desire to defend. Moore does not.
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We really don’t know this for a fact. He does know that if you don’t play defense you ride the pine and, unlike previous years, KU has plenty of very capable replacement players willing to play defense. He does have a disadvantage playing the taller PGs but not every PG is tall and he matches up with many of the shorter ones.
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@JayHawkFanToo I have a buddy in NC that went to a lot of his games. I trust his comments on it. He said Dotson is a big time junk yard dog and does w/e it takes to win, hates losing etc…
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I was talking about Moore not Dotson. I am counting on Dotson taking over the position and if he stays more than one year, we will see a super successful program player.
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@JayHawkFanToo Well, in that case, Moore has shown he isn’t that interested in defense. I thought he wasn’t a great fit when he transferred in. Like you said though he will find out what it’s like to play for Self.
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Everyone is writing off Charlie. Charlie will be just fine. His defense will be just fine.
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KUSTEVE said:
His defense will be just fine.
Don’t do this to yourself.
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@dylans Solid. We will also have a top 10 defense this season. Take that to the bank.
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@BShark If it was just Charlie against his man, and they were the only two on the court, you might have a point. But, he has a front line that is the best in the nation. And for what we had on the perimeter defensively last year, except for Marcus, he can’t be any worse.
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@KirkIsMyHinrich “SUPER DAVE”
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KUSTEVE said:
@BShark If it was just Charlie against his man, and they were the only two on the court, you might have a point. But, he has a front line that is the best in the nation. And for what we had on the perimeter defensively last year, except for Marcus, he can’t be any worse.
Overall team defense should be good. Charlie individually will not be. His offensive spark could be needed at times. I’m definitely not saying he should get 0 minutes.
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What I will be looking for this coming year is how much offense we create off our defense.
And another thing… looking at our possession numbers. Rebounds anyone? Remember what that used to be like when we would out-rebound our opponents just about every game?
One sure way to build a lot of points is to give up a lot of points. Increase the game total possession count and total points rise. The heck with that!
How about we practice “grind game” on defense and then “smash ball” on offense?
There is nothing more refreshing than seeing a team play hard on both sides of the ball. Those teams are almost impossible to beat, regardless if they go hot or cold!
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@drgnslayr The rebounding numbers will be way up, back to normal by our spoiled standards.
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Playing two traditional big men most of the time will push the rebound numbers. Additionally, having KJ, Grimes, Garrett and Vick getting wing minutes should also boost the rebound numbers since two of those guys will almost always be on the floor. Even when we go “small” we will still have good size inside because of how big the Lawson brothers are. It will also help that both McCormack and De Sousa are very good rebounders. Azubuike gets rebounds, but he isn’t a dominant rebounder like De Sousa can be.
Our best lineup may end up being De Sousa-D. Lawson-K. Lawson-Grimes-Dotson because that group has good balance and checks all of the boxes on both ends. I wouldn’t be surprised to see that group closing a lot of games out.
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@justanotherfan Silvio is like a rebounding vortex. Just pulls in basketballs.
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Heck… just having post depth should help.
No more big men playing timid trying not to foul!
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If Dok hacked away in the style of Cole Aldrich the other teams would run out of willing post players.
