Best offense in NCAA basketball
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@KirkIsMyHinrich Exactly. History says this team will not score 85. And that it is a concerted effort by Bill to do so. He wants to play a pace that is fast enough our opponents get tired and depth is an issue, but not so fast that we take bad shots.
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Yeah KU isn’t getting to 85 a game unless it’s the best team ever under Self. I think the 82 in my projections could be tough, but I believe the overall talent level of this team is pretty good.
@KirkIsMyHinrich Lol. I kept trying to at your other username that I know and was wondering why it wasn’t popping up here. Anyway, if KU defends at the level of those UK teams watch TF out. Those UK teams were pretty damn good offensively, good enough considering their stifling defense and pace.
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Thx for the numbers and analysis.
The most conspicuous thing about UK under Cal—maybe even beyond how many OADs he signs and gets cleared—is how few rings he has won with so many more OADs than Self has had. Each coach has one ring. But Self has NEVER had remotely as many OADs signed and often cannot get some of those he signs cleared to play.
Maybe the analogy with those UK teams of ‘12 and ‘15 calls attention to an underlying flaw in Cal’s ”system” of starting so very many OADs and TADs.
Maybe Cal’s OAD and TAD laden teams are too poor of 3pt shooting teams to keep from being upset in the Carney, where one off shooting game by UK, or one hot game by an opponent wipes out the OAD/TAD advantage?
Think about it.
Maybe Cal has to have 6-8 of the highest ranked 20 players in the country to even have a prayer of winning a ring, because they just don’t tend to shoot a high enough average from trey-ville?
UW, which upset ARGUABLY one of UK’s two most talented teams UK has had—had great perimeter trey shooters and a footer that could make the trey and pull UK bigs out.
Put another way, maybe it takes 6-8 of the best freshmen in the country to offset mature opponents upsetting you with great 3pt shooting on hot games in the Carney?
Thus two questions arise about this year’s KU team:
a.) does KU have 6-8 of the 20 best freshman; or
b.) does this team have enough maturity and 3 point shooting percentage to offset other mature teams with great trey shooting on an opponent’s hot night?
KU appears to lack sufficient OADs to win the pure talent route.
Alas, KU also seems to lack the combined maturity and 3pt shooting to win the other way.
So: KU should be very good, but have a low probability of avoiding upset.
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Ah JB, ignoring the facts once again to spin a yarn. 2012 UK had 3 OADs. They only really played 7 guys and the 7th guy played 12 minutes a game. That Wisconsin team in 2015 had two guys at 40% from 3. Then another two in the high 30s. One of their guards that played 24 minutes a game was at 28% and Dekker who was one best 4 players on that team was at 33%.
I wanted to ignore this, but it was so wrong the corrections had to be noted so that no one potentially believes it.
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@BShark Why would we let a few facts get in the way of a good ole Cal bashing? Facts/Schmacks JB, Cal/Kentucky bash away. I love it.
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@JayHawkFanToo So, when Dedric takes a breather, what do you think the substitution order for him will be? Silvio, then Mitch? That sounds great to me.
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stoptheflop said:
@BShark Why would we let a few facts get in the way of a good ole Cal bashing? Facts/Schmacks JB, Cal/Kentucky bash away. I love it.
Ha!
I’m definitely no fan of Cal. I don’t even think info has to be twisted/distorted to say his title record at UK has been disappointing. Hell I think UK fans would say that at this point.
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There are always criteria that humans set up in order for something to happen, based on past results. Kenpom has his formula - top 25 in adj offense and defense in order to win the national title. And that works until it doesn’t, and then they’ll reinvent the formula, or call it an anomaly. The one formula I know that can be counted on everytime is you have to have more points than your opponent. Now, whether that’s outscoring your opponents, limiting your opponents, or a combination of both is always going to be the rub. The reason I have so much faith in this team is the ability to change the lineup to match whatever style of ball we’re up against.
A one dimensional team is going to be at much greater risk of getting bounced than a team that can adapt to whatever style of basketball it is facing. Case in point are the Mighty Wahoos, the number 1 overall seed in last year’s tournament, who were flat chewed up and spit out by a tiny little team …UMBC. UVA was up against a 4 out, speedy team that was hitting all their shots. The vaunted pack line was eaten alive, as UVA sagged to the middle of the lane, and was eviscerated from outside. UVA had zero depth, and couldn’t match up to save their lives. A little like VCU vs us many moons ago. A little like we looked against Nova. We just couldn’t match up. Does that mean all is lost? Far from it.
We’ve never had the depth like we have this year. We can play 4 out, 2 bigs, 3 bigs. We can play any way you want to play. Throw the formulas out with this team. We have the personnel to stifle the perimeter, and dominate from inside. There won’t be a team in America we can’t match up with. Take Dedric away, and we have a slew weapons at every position. Double Doke? You’ll pay through the nose. You can’t double team every player. And the beauty is…the team is just going to get better and better and better as the year goes on. This is going to be a memorable year for us.
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Will Self have line-up and minutes flexibility remains to be seen. It’s going to be a fun season.
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stoptheflop said:
@JayHawkFanToo So, when Dedric takes a breather, what do you think the substitution order for him will be? Silvio, then Mitch? That sounds great to me.
Good question. It really will depends on the scheme Coach Self chooses to play. At this point I see Silvio spelling Doke rather than Dedric, at least until Big Dave is up to speed, which by extension means Mitch would go in for Dedric. Almost all of the KU players can play multiple positions. Looking at just the bigs…Dedrick 3-5, Silvio 4-5, Mitch 3-5, K.J. 2-4, Big Dave primarily 5 but could also play 4 and a Doke being the only that wil play only 5. Coach Self will have a lot of options and a lot of pieces to fill the spots.
Coach Self and many others have indicated that by conference time they like to have a 7 or 8 man primary rotation; this might be the year where he uses an extended rotation.
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I’d much rather see KJ at the 4 over Mitch.
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Probably more like Garrett for Dedric as KJ slides over from the 3 to the 4.
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Moore’s defense scares me more than anything else. I think scoring won’t be much of an issue once they establish an identity. I hope Dotson or Moore can cut off the attack at the point on D. That completely changes the game. If it’s no D from the point guard position watch out.
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dylans said:
Moore’s defense scares me more than anything else. I think scoring won’t be much of an issue once they establish an identity. I hope Dotson or Moore can cut off the attack at the point on D. That completely changes the game. If it’s no D from the point guard position watch out.
Dotson has the tools and desire to defend. Moore does not.
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We really don’t know this for a fact. He does know that if you don’t play defense you ride the pine and, unlike previous years, KU has plenty of very capable replacement players willing to play defense. He does have a disadvantage playing the taller PGs but not every PG is tall and he matches up with many of the shorter ones.
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@JayHawkFanToo I have a buddy in NC that went to a lot of his games. I trust his comments on it. He said Dotson is a big time junk yard dog and does w/e it takes to win, hates losing etc…
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I was talking about Moore not Dotson. I am counting on Dotson taking over the position and if he stays more than one year, we will see a super successful program player.
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@JayHawkFanToo Well, in that case, Moore has shown he isn’t that interested in defense. I thought he wasn’t a great fit when he transferred in. Like you said though he will find out what it’s like to play for Self.
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Everyone is writing off Charlie. Charlie will be just fine. His defense will be just fine.
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KUSTEVE said:
His defense will be just fine.
Don’t do this to yourself.
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@dylans Solid. We will also have a top 10 defense this season. Take that to the bank.
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@BShark If it was just Charlie against his man, and they were the only two on the court, you might have a point. But, he has a front line that is the best in the nation. And for what we had on the perimeter defensively last year, except for Marcus, he can’t be any worse.
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@KirkIsMyHinrich “SUPER DAVE”
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KUSTEVE said:
@BShark If it was just Charlie against his man, and they were the only two on the court, you might have a point. But, he has a front line that is the best in the nation. And for what we had on the perimeter defensively last year, except for Marcus, he can’t be any worse.
Overall team defense should be good. Charlie individually will not be. His offensive spark could be needed at times. I’m definitely not saying he should get 0 minutes.
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What I will be looking for this coming year is how much offense we create off our defense.
And another thing… looking at our possession numbers. Rebounds anyone? Remember what that used to be like when we would out-rebound our opponents just about every game?
One sure way to build a lot of points is to give up a lot of points. Increase the game total possession count and total points rise. The heck with that!
How about we practice “grind game” on defense and then “smash ball” on offense?
There is nothing more refreshing than seeing a team play hard on both sides of the ball. Those teams are almost impossible to beat, regardless if they go hot or cold!
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@drgnslayr The rebounding numbers will be way up, back to normal by our spoiled standards.
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Playing two traditional big men most of the time will push the rebound numbers. Additionally, having KJ, Grimes, Garrett and Vick getting wing minutes should also boost the rebound numbers since two of those guys will almost always be on the floor. Even when we go “small” we will still have good size inside because of how big the Lawson brothers are. It will also help that both McCormack and De Sousa are very good rebounders. Azubuike gets rebounds, but he isn’t a dominant rebounder like De Sousa can be.
Our best lineup may end up being De Sousa-D. Lawson-K. Lawson-Grimes-Dotson because that group has good balance and checks all of the boxes on both ends. I wouldn’t be surprised to see that group closing a lot of games out.
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@justanotherfan Silvio is like a rebounding vortex. Just pulls in basketballs.
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Heck… just having post depth should help.
No more big men playing timid trying not to foul!
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If Dok hacked away in the style of Cole Aldrich the other teams would run out of willing post players.
