Draft Declarations Thread
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@justanotherfan good post. led the Big 12 in FG% as a starter. While the Jordan Bells of the world took advantage of Landen, he still put us in position to get that shot against Oregon. Nothing but love for the big guy.
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And, unfortunately, the above analysis being correct, it leads to only one conclusion. Bill Self blew it. Both with his decisions on playing time and his roster building. Watching Nova win it all, watching teams win with the stretch 4 at the 5 spot, we can now see how valuable Diallo would have been had he been managed properly. Self was behind the curve there and chose the plodder. How history might have been different had Diallo been the choice of Lucas.
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@HighEliteMajor seems logical from outside looking in, but that’s assuming we know all of the factors at play.
Also, Diallo would have been gone, but I don’t think that’s your point. You’re talking about “the Diallos” and “the Landens”. Devil may be in the details though.
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Maybe Self never wanted Diallo, but Adidas did…
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@approxinfinity I was referring to Diallo the season we lost to Nova in the Elite 8. That year, Diallo was banished in favor of the pedestrian Lucas, on the apparent assumption that we only needed our post man to do certain things. We can always revert to the idea about other factors. It is the perpetual “get out of jail free card” that can be played at any time, from folks (not you) that have no other explanation for bad decisions. It can always be a partial explanation – of everything and anything.
The handling and lack of use of Diallo was horrible and unforgivable. Diallo wasn’t this unique, stupid, malcontent who was incompetent on the court. You develop a player over a season.
If Lucas had been here this past season, or Traylor, DeSousa would never have seen the court. And DeSousa was twice the player (a minor hyperbole alert) that either of those guys ever were, within 60 days of setting foot on campus.
However, the second part of my point is just as horrible and unforgivable – being in a position to rely on Lucas a starter as you pointed out (same with Jamari Traylor). Our program, our results, would have been better if neither of those players ever started a game. Bill Self need only look in the mirror when wondering why, over Mason’s four seasons, we never reached the final four.
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I disagree. Diallo’s issues and his late start placed him way behind the curve with the KU system in part due to the late start and in part due to his low basketball IQ due to his previous limited exposure to the sport and, while extremely physically gifted, proved to be a slow learner. At KU he was more of a liability than an asset and the players themselves chose Lucas over him…this is pretty telling.
In his second year in the League he still has not secured a spot in the rotation or roster because of his highly inconsistent play and he either plays during garbage time or has lots of DNP- Coach decision. Even this season he spent time in the G League learning the game. Obviously the Pelicans hope he will eventually develop but at this time he looks like the prototype journeyman bench warmer.
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Measurements:
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Svi 6’ 6.5’’ without shoes and only a 6’ 4.75’’ wingspan. He is essentially a 6’5 type player. Not good.
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Newman 6’2.5 without shoes and a 6’5.5 wingspan
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Doke 6’10 without shoes and a 7’7 wingspan!!!
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Preston 6’8.75 and a 7’2 wingspan
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Devonte 6’0.25 without shoes and a 6’6.25 wingspan
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@JayHawkFanToo One observation I make is that Landen Lucas is playing basketball in Japan, on some team called Toyota Alvark. If the logic you are suggesting is each player’s respective professional standing, Lucas is playing in McDonalds and Diallo is a step below Jean Georges in NY City. Diallo has actually played in an NBA game. Multiple games.
Now, you do realize what you’re saying. You’re saying that Diallo was so incompetent (BB IQ), and that despite the fact that he was simply better at basketball than our slug Landen Lucas, Self just couldn’t play him. Yet, Diallo was somehow competent enough (BB IQ) to play in the NBA. 12 games his first season, 52 his second.
He was never more of a liability than an asset. He just needed game action to develop and acclimate. No doubt, it takes a little time to grasp the entire Self scheme. Self was just impatient because he had his safety blankets.
What he needed was time, commitment, and coaching. They gave up on him. They chose to abandon his development in favor of a low, low ceiling Lucas who when matched against better players, gets overwhelmed. The evidence is undeniable. Yet, in the face of knowing that, seeing that, and seeing the alternative player actually playing in the NBA while our guy (Lucas) sets picks on the Hamburglar in the basketball stronghold of Japan.
It’s the same reason for playing Jamari Traylor – the “known” was less risky than the “unknown.” Bad way to make decisions.
It was a huge fail by Self and his staff.
@BigBad - Wrong. Just dead wrong. Diallo was 6’7 1/2 barefoot with a 7’ 4 1/2 wingspan. Standing reach over 8’ 11".
Lucas’ wingspan is 4 1/2 inches less than Diallo.
Lucas was not a rim protector. Diallo was. Diallo could jump. Lucas, well, not really.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2640034-cheick-diallo-nba-combine-2016-measurements-analysis-and-draft-projection http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Cheick-Diallo-71440/
http://www.espn.com/nba/player/stats/_/id/3919335/cheick-diallo
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And yet when asked by the players who they would rather have trust on the floor more steady - they all in /unison said - - LUCAS - -hmmmmmm
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What am I wrong about? All I did was list yesterdays measurements. I wasn’t comparing them to anyone.
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#Pelicans The Pelicans are counting on Cheick Diallo to become an “impact player” for them in 2018-19.
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@BigBad I know
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Doke and Preston’s measurements are big positives for both of them. Devonte as well, though he is shorter than most would prefer, but that length means he can play a bit bigger than his height.
Newman neither helps nor hurts his stock with his measurements. He needs to defend this week at the combine.
Svi hurts himself a bit, but can remove some of those concerns with a good showing shooting the basketball. Svi was always going to be more of a shooter than anything else. JJ Redick also has a wingspan shorter than his standing height, and he’s done okay in the NBA. Svi isn’t quite that level of shooter, but he likely will have the same type of role as Redick in the NBA.
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@BigBad My apologies. My first read on your post was that it said Diallo not Svi. Sorry about that.
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It is an interesting intellectual exercise to discuss players like the Big Red Dog, Billy Preston, and especially Diallo, as if Self were free to play them as much as the apparent lesser talented players that he opted in most cases to play more of the time instead.
But none of the three EVER probably would have been signed had Self had greater access to the kinds of big men that tend to sign with Elite programs in the EST, so I am not sure that one cannot discuss them this way in any truly meaningful way.
Diallo and Lucas were apparently a package, i.e., a kind committee, solution to a problem of insufficient D1 bigs apparently precipitated by an apparent recruiting embargo, obstruction, asymmetric channeling, or something else (you choose) of OAD/5-star grade talent at the 5.
The only reason they apparently WERE signed was what now appears an extended, and perhaps intensifying, recruiting embargo/blockade/asymmetric channelling/something else (you choose) that has apparently constrained the recruiting by our Hall of Fame coach with the highest winning percentage of any active coach in recent years, depending on the 10 year and less time frames one parses with.
With hindsight, we now can at least guess somewhat reasonably why both Cal and Self competed to sign Diallo (the hyper sashimi of big man basketball recruits), and the motivations appear to have been starkly different.
Cal apparently wanted Diallo, because: a.) raw, apparently baggage-laden guys like Diallo were apparently NOT a problem for UK to get cleared; b.) Diallo’s absence of recognizable basketball fundamentals was not a great deficit in Cal’s hop, skip and a jump high school offense (that already no one else runs); c.) Cal apparently correctly anticipated UK was shortly no longer going to be awarded long stacks by whatever powers may be that giveth long stacks and taketh long stacks away; and d.) Cal apparently correctly reasoned that if he signed Diallo to keep him away from Self, Self would lack sufficient inside depth to be a serious threat to UK and perhaps other Nike-contracted programs come March. All in all, it was pretty savvy of Cal to try to recruit the raw, apparent human baggage carousel that was Diallo, wasn’t it?
Now reflect on our Coach Self a moment.
Self, in contradistinction, had already had extensive experience with trying to win with 3, or fewer OADs, and had loooooong experience with not being able to sign, or coach, OAD/5-star players at the 1 and 5 spots. And Self was increasingly familiar with having to develop and play 3-4 star projects. This was the temple of Bill’s familiar that was all entirely Greek to Cal. In any case, Bill apparently took a significant risk (specifically of failure to clear) and signed Diallo: a.) to have someone (even someone without recognizable basketball fundamentals) with D1 grade athleticism and size inside at least for some depth; and b.) he appears to have taken his roulette wheel chance on Diallo precisely because he could claim that Kentucky recruited him, too. That’s it. I can’t see any other angle, can you? Bill was apparently rolling the dice to find someone that might be a fast learner (a second lightening strike like the prior project that was Embiid) in hopes of maybe being able to put at least one big on the floor with draft choice grade athleticism. He was apparently gambling, and with some desperate futility it appears in hindsight, that if Cal and UK figured they could get him cleared, then he MIGHT, or so it appears in retrospect, be able to shame the NCAA into clearing him for KU, also. A coach apparently behind a recruiting 8-ball has to remain optimistic and try every angle to have even a reasonable chance of remaining successful at the level Self has attained, right?
So why am I spending so much time on Diallo other than that you guys are arguing the merits of a guy that has never showed an ability to start and play anywhere in college or the pros?
Diallo, to me, is the poster child for what KU recruiting has largely defaulted to in the case of big men, at least.
The once vaunted Big Man U can recruit many OAD/5-star big men and get quite a few to attend Late Night, but for reasons as impenetrable as rumored scalar energy warfare, can’t sign them AND clear them AND avoid issues after clearance that make playing them after a certain point before, or during a season tantamount to having to vacate that season.
KU’s new nickname should be “Big Baggage Man U + 3-4star Project Man U.”
So: thinking about Diallo vs. Lucas misses the point IMHO.
Self never had a rational option to play Diallo, or Lucas, other than he did.
Let me explain why I believe this was so.
Sure, I stipulate that playing either player a lot more would have improved that player a lot more. And playing Diallo more would likely have yielded a better 5 by some point in the season than playing Lucas more, if the risks of relying heavily on either player were more or less the same.
But they apparently weren’t the same.
Diallo was apparently a baggage carousel big from the git go, and Lucas was apparently not.
Thus the baggage risks with Diallo were apparently up here.
And the baggage risks with Lucas were apparently way down here.
Thus, Self’s only rational option from a risk management stand point was to play both in just about the increments that he did, when he did, as the baggage risk drama played out.
Diallo and Lucas appeared to have been two sides of the same coin of Self’s big man strategy resulting from an apparent recruiting embargo/obstruction/asymmetric channelling/something else phenomenon (you choose) that leads into Self never recently having the kind of roster of bigs comparable to other D1 Elite programs.
Since Self apparently cannot sign OAD/5-star bigs without baggage, he has opted to sign: a.) baggage projects with D1 athleticism; and b.) 3-4 star development projects without D1 athleticism; and then c.) hedge his bet on the baggage carousel big with over reliance and development of the 3-4 star project.
Thus, Self always has to anticipate and scheme the team around bigs that take years to develop, plus around bigs that likely won’t get cleared, or if they do get cleared, will pose season long risks of other discoveries of baggage; that appears to be the big man committee at the KU 5 position, perhaps since the 2008 team, but definitely more recently.
Self apparently could NEVER start and largely rely on Diallo, because Self could apparently never be certain how his signing of, and heavy reliance on, Diallo would be viewed by the powers that were, and, so, could never fully discern how signing Diallo might be used against him by the powers that were. And increasingly in hindsight, it appears that the powers that were were not JUST the NCAA, if the recent, reputed widening of the FBI/DOJ investigation is to be given creedence. There appears to be some kind of as yet vaguely understood “complex” involved. Satisfying one part of said vague complex would not necessarily guaranty satisfaction of its other parts. Some parts may be in considerable conflict and competition at times. Its hard to say.
Thus, the complexities of this circumstance reduces rational coaching of baggage carousel bigs to a kind of risk management activity, not to an activity aimed at optimization of a particular player. This same circumstance apparently leads to the playing of inferior players as part of the risk management strategy; i.e., as a kind of hedging against relatively difficult to accurately quantify risk.
IMHO, Self appears caught in, and appears to be making, something approximating “satisficing” choices about big man development in a world of problematic roster trade-offs resulting largely from an apparent, and so far only vaguely understood, recruiting embargo/obstruction/asymmetric channelling/something else (you choose).
Thus it becomes a somewhat metaphysical discussion whether or not Diallo with many more minutes of PT would have developed enough over the course of the season to have helped KU go far deeper in the Madness, than what actually transpired. What actually transpired was apparently the most rationally feasible option Self could make with the limited information he likely possesses (and his limited information is likely significantly more extensive than what we possess). Self apparently chose to risk manage by, if you will, building a big man derivative out of Diallo and Lucas,and, when the risks of playing Diallo more down the stretch outweighed the advantages of playing him a lot, then Self apparently had little or no rational alternative other than to do it the way he did. It simply seems improbable that given the complexities of the situation that faced Self regarding his apparent baggage carousel big man that he could have with 100 percent confidence predict that it would be risk free to invest solely, or even just primarily, in his development.
Diallo, Cliff, and Billy all fit into this hypothesized derivative model of Self’s big man by committee approach. The inferior player has to be played a lot in order to allay the risk of even having the baggage carousel big on the roster.
Think about this past season a moment. Self had to develop not only Doke, who couldn’t do anything on offense but dunk, but he also had to develop the talent-challenged Mitch Lightfoot precisely because of Billy Preston’s roster presence. Self apparently chose to prepare for the entire season, not as if Billy would play, but as if Billy might not play. Had Billy not been a baggage carousel big, Self might well have been able to cryo-ice Mitch, or maybe even never sign him at all, had Self been able to sign two non baggage carousel big men with talents and abilities typical of D1 bigs at other Elite programs.
Would KU have been better, if Billy had not been a baggage carousel big that played full time? Maybe, but not certainly in the age of the three point basket. Self probably wouldn’t have let KU’s trey shooters take as many threes and so KU would almost certainly have lost some games, as a result. Billy might have been able to off set those losses due to reduced trey shooting, but not necessarily. But Billy would likely have been able to trigger a W on those games, when KU was slumping outside and needed higher productivity inside to get a W. But these are metaphysical considerations. The fact apparently was: Billy was apparently a baggage carousel big, or Self appeared to sense that he might have been at some point or other. At any moment he could have apparently not been cleared. At any moment he apparently could have left the program without playing a game. And in fact, he did leave the program finally before playing in a conference game. So: Self apparently rationally was wise to recognize the risk of that eventuality by developing Mitch and suboptimzing Billy even in the exhibition games.
Hedge fund investors probably appreciate and respect what Self has done in the case of Diallo and in the case of Billy, probably with Cliff also. To them, they would not dare build the derivative without some kind of a guarantied insurance contract (a contract that insures against the collapse of either end of the derivative), even if it was a fake, or underfunded GIC. But Self? Man, he sails into most seasons in a stiff head wind diverting most playable OAD/5-star 5s to EST Elite Programs, and he patches together a Diallo and a Lucas derivative at the 5, or a Billy and a Mitch derivative, and without so much as a single GIC, he charts a course for winning 82%, 30 games, a conference title and a Final Four. He doesn’t often get to the Final Four, but almost always drops anchor along the way at each of the other destinations on his chart.
Damned impressive.
The captain can sail.
(Note: All opining and speculation about appearances by a layman fan viewing remotely. No insider knowledge of what is REALLY going on. Rock Chalk!)
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You are talking about apples and oranges. What they do now or where they play has nothing to do with where they were in their development while at KU. Look at POY Adam Morrison, he did not last long in the NBA or POY Tyler Hansbrough who is now playing in China or POY Jimmer Fredette that is also playing in China, likewise, there are many players that were not necessarily great in college and were drafted based on potential and did well in the NBA.
No question that Diallo had a higher upside but potential and usable skills are not the same thing. If you consider a scale where the floor is 0 and the top ceiling is 10, most players in the NBA have developed to somewhere between 8-10. At KU Diallo had a floor of 2 or 3 and a realistic ceiling of 7 and most of the time he played somewhere between 3 and 4. Lucas on the other hand had a floor of 5 and a ceiling of 7 or 8 and most of the time he played close to his ceiling, say 7…guess who most coaches are going to play. Lucas maximized his potential while Diallo’s was just that, potential with occasional burst of good play. Coach Self has an obligation to the the program and to the team to play the lineup that will produce the best outcome and Lucas and not Diallo provided that.Thinking that with more playing time Diallo would have been that much better of a player is just wishful thinking. In the learning scale Embiid was freak savant of a learner with incredible natural skill, Josh Jackson a quick learner, Doke and average learner, Alexander a slow learner and Diallo a very slow learner.
Even when he has now been practicing 24/7 for 2 years, Diallo still is playing scrub minutes with trips to the G League. I have the NBA channel and I make it a point to try watching games with former KU players. Diallo plays mostly to give the starters a quick couple of minutes rest, particularly after Boogie was done for the season, and at the end of games when the outcome has been decided.
I guess we just agree to disagree.
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There are two things that factor into whether a player succeeds in the NBA. One is development. That, obviously, has nothing to do with how they did in college.
The other is raw talent. A player has to have a raw talent level of X in order to play in the NBA. There isn’t an NBA direct equivalent, but a few years ago FiveThirtyEight did a feature on a regular guy being created as a Madden player based on his actual skills. He rated as a 12 on the ratings scale. The lowest rated player in Madden that year was a long snapper that rated a 41.
Basketball works in much the same way. To be an NBA player, you would probably have to be “rated” a 55 or so at a minimum. Most regular people would be rated below 15. A guy like Diallo is around a 60 or so at this point in his career. Let’s say that an average D1 player is rated 45.
Diallo had the physical talent to be an above average D1 player. Lucas was much closer to average (perhaps a high 40s, low 50s type). Chances are Diallo, when he left KU, was somewhere between 53 and 57 given that he’s bounced between the NBA and the G League. Lucas is below even that minimum NBA standard.
The guys you point to (Morrison, Fredette, Hansbrough) have the minimum talent level, but they need to adapt their game. All three were primary options in college, but are not nearly talented enough to be number one options in the NBA. They are role players that have been stars throughout their lives. They are guys rated in the high 60s or low 70s, but to be a #1 option, you need to be an 80 or better. They have the minimum talent level to be in the league, but not to fulfill the role they are used to.
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justanotherfan said:
Newman neither helps nor hurts his stock with his measurements. He needs to defend this week at the combine.
I believe he hurt his stock. His 16/17 body fat was 5.6 and is now 6.25. His standing vert was 30.0 and is now 27.5. His max vert was 35.5 and is now 33.5. If I were Andrea Hudy I would be alarmed.
I couldn’t find all of the stats for Svi but he did drop from 11.4% body fat down to 8.45%. I couldn’t find his standing and max vert? He is also down 8lbs so he should jump higher? I guess when they finish updating http://stats.nba.com/draft/combine-strength-agility/#!?sort=MAX_VERTICAL_LEAP&dir=1&SeasonYear=2018-19 we will see?
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Svi lit up the nets today from the 3 shooting 66% leading all scorers with 20pts in 20 minutes off the bench. http://stats.nba.com/game/0921800002/
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Doke said in the Star he’d probably be back without a first round guarantee. I like that a lot.
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FarmerJayhawk said:
Doke said in the Star he’d probably be back without a first round guarantee. I like that a lot.
This really couldn’t be put anymore plainly for Doke. - - The article from the star also said : An NBA Scout said they also had concerns about Azubuike’s conditioning.
" The scout said I just don’t know if someone like him is needed anymore, " The Scout said he’s in the wrong era. - if that doesn’t tell Doke at the minimum he needs to come back to College and try to work even harder to have any kind of shot. - I just don’t know if he will ever be in the NBA - -maybe oversea’s - -but NBA - just not sure
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Sucks for Doke but great for KU!!! Hope he is back.
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The issue for Newman is that he was an average athlete before (by NBA standards) and is still a pretty average athlete now. The decreases aren’t a big deal because they still make him average.
He has to show that he can defend 1s and 2s, that he can handle the PnR, and that he can pass. Everyone knows that he can score. He just has to show he can do it on both ends.
I see him as a off the bench spark scorer (Jamal Crawford, Lou Williams, Bobby Jackson type). If he can defend at an average level, he can make himself very valuable.
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@jayballer73 I have been saying it all along. No game outside of 5ft, poor conditioning, and he was 0-4 from the charity stripe in his combine scrimmage. He is still young and has time to improve his all around game. If I remember right Robinson practiced with the bigs and the guards to round out his game. So far Dok has put on a clinic on what not to do at the combine. I am hopeful he is encouraged by the feedback he receives and gets back to campus and gets to work. If he uses this summer to improve on his all around game he will be even more valuable next season for KU.
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I’ll never understand the free throw thing. I would take this challenge. Give me Doke for two weeks. Pay me $25,000. He’ll make 60% of his free throws next season, and so long as he does it the way I suggest, I’ll repay the $25,000 and chip in another $5,000 if he fails. This picture says it all. It should never, ever, never, ever happen on a basketball court, playing nerf hoop, or wherever.
Do not let him play if he does this. Bench.
Doke can do this. He needs to be forced.
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@HighEliteMajor “so long as he does it the way I suggest”
That conditional guarantees your money is safe!
The problem is that he doesn’t. That is what the coaches complain about. Benching could be a motivator, but the dilemma is that if he still does it wrong, you bench him and lose the possible 15 pts on 77% shooting from the (2 foot radius) “field”. Where do you decide it is worth the tradeoff?
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@mayjay Well, that little contract condition is my deal breaker. I’d be happy to take a payment from a third party, say, Adidas. Maybe not advisable.
But I did not see anything that said the was refusing coaching, or refusing to do what the coach’s said to do. Maybe I missed that. I had understood he was receptive when this all hit the fan after the OU game. I’ll add to my deal – I won’t even make him shoot granny style.
But the coach’s have more pull. For his own good, for his development, for the team in the long run, MAKE him do it the right way. Bill Self has a reputation of demanding excellence in the manner in which a screen is hedged, etc. I think he can demand this be done. I really hope Doke returns, and I really hope Doke gets the chance to improve here. He’s a monster near the hoop.
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Doke has responded well to coaching in other areas, sounds like it could be more mental.
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@HighEliteMajor I think I read somewhere a comment about him reverting when tired in game situations.
Or maybe I made that comment as a theory. It gets confusing after a few thousand posts.
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@HighEliteMajor that picture has always looked doctored to me. Not saying it is, but doesnt it make his head look disproportionately large and isn’t it weird that his face is clear (background) but his arms (foreground) are blurry? Really weird pic.
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@approxinfinity The photo is one I took on my phone from my TV screen, and posted in my prior thread. It’s probably because the video was stopped and the arms were moving in the frame. Sadly, not doctored. In fact, the KC Star hard a photo in its print edition were the ball is even further to Doke’s left. U … G … L …Y.
https://kubuckets.com/topic/6949/udoka-free-throw-solutions-photo-added
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@HighEliteMajor ahhh that makes sense. When I was a kid when my mom would lecture me I’d stare at her head hard enough until it started looking disproportionately sized for her body… Much better than talking back. Wasn’t sure if watching Doke shoot free throws had caused some sort of psychological reversion to childhood for me…
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@approxinfinity Haha I thought you were talking about the Naismith photo. Dok’s form is fugly, but he does look like an exaggerated fathead form of himself.
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Its shocking just how short KU was this past season.
We all realized that Self was shorthanded (pun intended) in his big man rotation, but my god!!! My suburban high school team in the 1970s was about as tall at positions 1, 2, 3, and 4, as KU was this past season!!!
Yes, the KU team was a lot more athletic than my high school team, but the only thing that saved the team from being completely blown out was the three good trey shooters.
Think about the real heights for Devonte, Malik, and Svi; then figure Vick HAD to be no taller than 6-3, and this was arguably the shortest bunch of runts to make the Final Four in many years.
No wonder they got their butts beat down by Villanova. Nova bunch of fake 75-100 ringers were all legitimately sized D1 players for their positions.
Good lord, imagine Mitch Lightfoot real height. He’s listed at 6-8, so he cannot possibly be more than 6-6.
Marcus Garrett at 6-5? Sure. In a fun house mirror, maybe. The guy was probably 6-3.
Now step back an look at last season’s Mighty Jayhawks.
Devonte 6-0
Malik 6-2
Vick 6-3
Svi 6-5
Marcus 6-3
Mitch 6-6
Doke 6-10
Silvio 6-8
Talk about finessing a dwarf team for 30+ wins.
This sounds like a team from 1962, not 2018!
The apparent embargo appears to have done its job, except Self keeps breeding hat rabbits like a DARPA project aimed at weaponizing Pookas.
The walls are closing in on Self, but he keeps finding cracks to slip through.
If he is able to win conference titles, 30+, and get to the Final Four, with a dwarf team, he has to be sooooooooo much better than all the other coaches coaching legitimate D1 talent that it must be scary for the other coaches to think about.
And it must drive one axis of the petroshoeco-agency complex absolutely berserk!
The last guy to hold this much edge over his fellow coaches was probably John Wooden.
Self is scary good.
He is not even using smoke and mirrors any more.
He is using dwarves including three that can shoot treys.
Not perfect.
He makes mistakes for sure.
But dwelling on Self’s mistakes is a little like complaining about Marilyn Monroe’s mole.
Marilyn drove men mad despite the mole.
Self, with his mistakes, well, he wins a ring, 14 straight conference titles, 30+ games and makes deep runs in the Carney, even with an apparent embargo monkey on his back. Its like handicapping Seabiscuit with two 100-hundred pound bags of readmix cement and Seabiscuit still outrunning War Admiral.
I’ve said this many times before: guys like Coach K, Cal, Roy, Jay, and Stumpy crash to .500 or .600, when they don’t have a full house with aces over kings.
Hell, Jay had to have six apparently fake 75-100 ringers that were bigger and more athletic and that were all better trey shooters than all of KU’s guys, except but maybe for Svi for Jay to be crowned the new genius of D1.
Would Self have lost a single flipping game with Jay’s treys?
What would Jay Wright’s record have been had he been coaching Self’s dwarf team with only three 40% trey shooters? OMG!
SIX HUNDRED tops.
Self appears to make some sub optimizing choices about certain players.
But then we learn that the players he wasn’t optimizing had baggage, or something else wrong, like they were refusing to come back for one or two more seasons, and the lesser player was willing to come back as long as Self would have him.
What if Self were recruiting on a level playing field?
What would his winning percentage be then?
85 percent?
90 percent?
95 percent?
These seem not just possible, but maybe feasible.
No coach has EVER won at a 90-95 percent level.
But it seems like Self could do it without too much trouble, if he were getting the kind of players the merely solid coaches at the other elite programs in the EST tend to get.
Imagine how tough Self and his Jayhawks would be to beat, if Self and his teams got the treatment Coach K and Duke get from the zebras.
Imagine if KU players could focus more on the game and ease by with Easygate classes.
Imagine how many players Self could sign, if KU were with Nike and Self could off the kinds of incentives to players that Stumpy reputedly offered in a phone call.
Imagine Self with 6-10 OADs–including one or two at each position–for several consecutive years?
I have never seen anything remotely like the level he is coaching at with the relative disadvantage he is coaching with.
Even John R. Wooden had to have a 6-1 wunderkind in Gail Goodrich on his dwarf teams in order to win rings. Goodrich was a flipping NBA shooting legend and started on an NBA champion. Goodrich was a 5 time NBA All-Star. The guy was freaking All NBA First Team one season. The guy scored 19,000 some points in the NBA. The guy played 14 NBA seasons and average 31 mpg and 13.8 ppg. Hell, he averaged over 20 ppg in four straight NBA playoff seasons. Who on Self’s band of dwarves last season will EVER come remotely close to those NBA numbers? Exactly none, that’s who.
And yet Self lead that team to a Final Four.
Its just flipping amazing.
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Nice fan fiction.
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Other than Villanova, point me to a truly great team in the NCAA last season. UVA stormed through the ACC, but we all understood their limitations even if no one saw UMBC coming. UNC was flawed. Michigan State couldn’t find an identity. Duke couldn’t defend. KU was jump shot dependent. Xavier lacked depth. Cincinnati struggled to score. Purdue lacked top flight talent. Michigan’s guard play was suspect. Ohio State had no one to complement their stars. Same story for Miami. UCLA was torpedoed by early season scandal. Arizona was torpedoed by late season scandal. The top freshmen were too spread out, many at lesser programs.
There were not any great teams this past season. Villanova was the best team for most of the year. Villanova won the title. Every other team had a serious flaw that ultimately saw them get knocked out of the tournament for that very reason.
Maybe next year there will be great teams, although it’s hard to see that coming through. Duke is still flawed in roster construction. So is UNC. Not getting Langford will probably haunt KU in a few key games when they could use his shooting. The FBI probe isn’t going away, so there will probably be some recruit or team that gets hit with that at some point. Kentucky probably won’t be able to rebound next year unless some of their guys come back. Arizona and Louisville are both probably sunk due to the investigation.
So who has the strongest team? Well, that’s still up for debate, but whoever does probably has a shot at running the table in March because next year promises a bunch of really good, but also really flawed teams.
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Good post and very true.
I think Gonzaga looks like maybe the most complete team going into next year. This was a young team reloading after some key departures. Their starting 5 should be as good as any getting back two NBA prospects (Hachimura, Tillie) to return for their Jr seasons. Norvell takes another step forward after a stellar Freshman year. Perkins runs point as the savy veteran leader. They will have depth, size, shooting which is all key.
The only other potential very good team I could find was Nevada but that hinges on both the twins & Caroline returning. There is a lot of talent on that team if all return especially adding a potential OAD in Jordan Brown.
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I am waiting to see who stays in the draft to figure out both Nevada and Kentucky. Those two teams look a lot different depending on whether some of their guys come back. Nevada with the twins back is a top 10 (maybe even top 5) team. Kentucky with Washington and Vanderbilt back is a monster (top 3 in the country, no question). Kentucky without them is a flawed team.
Heck, KU with Azubuike is a top 3 or 4 team. Without him, still good, but potentially turning into a team with a lack of frontcourt depth again
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Absolutely the fallout from the draft will change things a bit.
Nevada certainly could make a case as a top 3 pre-season team with the twins. Their PG returns from injury, added OAD possible Jordan Brown, 4 more high scoring transfers to the mix. It’s a ton of talent that will have to be worked on to mesh.
Kentucky still looks flawed to me even if those guys return but definitely their ceiling raises a heck of a lot with them. With them keeping mum on the transfer market it seems they must be confident at least 1 of the 3 is staying.
KU with Doke certainly has a higher ceiling and puts some pieces into place that would be unsettled without him. It downplays the impact Lightfoot and McCormack would have to give. With the unknown situation regarding De Sousa’s future we definitely could use a starter returning to anchor this team that’s facing a complete face lift
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Since the apparent long stacking has apparently been curtailed a few years back (to avoid arousing too much apparent suspicion?), we haven’t had a super team that I recall.
Historically, super teams have been fairly rare over much of the history of the NCAA. They have come only in short, infrequent, intermittent bursts, with the exception being UCLA under Wooden, when, after winning two with players other coaches didn’t want, he finally reputedly looked the other way while Sam Gilbert hired players the same way other top schools were then and had been hiring players the previous 15 years he had been coaching UCLA and finishing second in conference so many times.
Because of the above, I am not sure how to interpret your observation about Nova.
The point seems to me to be that was a super team in disguise. Once folks watched them, which I did not do during the season, it became apparent that they were one of the most extraordinary teams to come along in NCAA history. They were essentially unprecedented. It wasn’t just the offense that distinguished them. Many teams over the years have tried to volume shoot treys and combine that with match up zones. But no prior team ever had 6 >39 percent trey shooters playing in a rotation, including 2 highly athletic 6-9 to 6-10 big men that could drain the trey.
On a good night, there hasn’t been another team in NCAA history that could have stopped them. Even the Walton and Jabbar lead UCLA teams would certainly have lost to them on any hot shooting night by Nova. They would have absolutely smoked the undefeated Indiana team of 1976, which was a pretty weak outside shooting team. They would have run UK’s 2012 team off the floor on a good shooting night. Magic’s national champion? Last year’s Nova team would have beaten them by 20-30 points on a good shooting night. The only champion I can recall that might have stayed on the floor with them on a hot night would have been the Duke 9 OAD stack and even they didn’t have two post men that could and did drain the trey.
Nova was greatest anomaly and arguably the greatest team in the history of NCAA basketball, and they were apparently carefully kept under the radar screen of as many bettors as possible over the course of the season. The Media-Gaming Complex at least accidentally enabled the phenomenon.
Think how much more obvious it would’ve been that Nova was a great team, on the scale of UK’s 2012 team, or Duke’s 9 stack, had Nova’s now apparent ringers not been apparently sandbag-ranked 75-100.
Imagine just how on the radar screen Nova would have been all season had their 6 extraordinarily athletic, long, strong >39% trey shooters, including not one but two post men that could shoot >39% from trey, as well as run the floor, guard their positions, rebound, make free throws, and muscle, been accurately identified as precisely what they were: Top 25 players–all six of them.
It was a really sweet deal.
Why, they didn’t even win their conference, right? Nudge, nudge, wink, wink.
Think of how it would have changed betting lines every game of the season, if everyone had known what they were. Think of how it would have reduced the opportunity to exploit the underestimation of how good Nova was most of the season. Think of how much money there was to be made by doing that, rather than apparently blatantly long stacking and hyping to the cloud frontier either Duke, or UK, as in the past.
Now, think of how, even if that were NOT what really happened (i.e., if they were not channelled, pooled and sand-bagged for Jay the last few years to make a big killing) , how easily and quickly the apparent Media-Gaming complex and/or the apparent petroshoeco-agency complex (note: elements of the latter reputedly being investigated for channeling talent as we exchange posts), could seize what happened for the model of optimizing.
What a sweet deal, eh?
You could even just run the scam every third season and most would never get suspicious in mass distracted, memory challenged America.
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Jay Wright is a good coach and talent evaluator. No sense in over complicating it.
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BShark said:
Nice fan fiction.
I will take that as a compliment, thank you very much.
“Fan fiction”, like “amateur journalism” before it in the 19-teens, is the breeding ground for literary innovation and greatness.
Modern science fiction and horror fantasy trace their roots not so much to Welles, Doyle, Huxley et al, but to American amateur journalism’s incredible tide of greats including H. P. Lovecraft, that embraced both the English ghost story and dark tales of Poe and blended them into what would become commercially marketed in first Weird Tales during the 1930s and then as the tsunami of American science fiction of the 1940s, 1950s and 1960s.
The Inklings at Oxford made their top down contributions in the form of Tolkien’s Lord of the Rings trilogy, and Lewis’ Chronicles of Narnia, but the stuff that broke down all the boundaries and freed the human imagination to deal with the technological tidal wave that hit us in the 20th and 21st Centuries is American science fiction and American horror fantasy, and those clearly spring from amateur journalism.
Now today, the greatest hotbed of creation and innovation in literature is happening in fan fiction and maybe even on an order of magnitude greater scale.
The moribund film industry to busy with pedophilia to really incorporate truly creative writers have finally figured out that they can now steal popular, fresh film ideas from fan fiction web sites where the young men and women, and older ones marginalized by the producer oligopolies in publishing and film, can be found writing incredibly great stuff and offering the training ground for the next great literary tidal wave.
Thank you, sir.
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BShark said:
Jay Wright is a good coach and talent evaluator. No sense in over complicating it.
Sure, and John Calipari was just a great recruiter.
Nudge, nudge, wink, wink!
Howling!
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BShark said:
Jay Wright is a good coach and talent evaluator. No sense in over complicating it.
When I stop to think about what you have written, I just cannot believe how I have overlooked the obvious comparison.
Jay Wright and John Calipari are apparently two sides of the same coin. They are almost interchangeable, once you make me think about it. They are both MASTERFUL recruiters able to recruit unprecedentedly anomalous numbers of certain kinds of players to non-elite majors (Jay at Nova and Cal at Memphis) and get to Final Fours doing so.
Thank you for calling my attention to this.
Do you suppose Jay will follow in Cal’s footsteps and go to an elite major next?
Wouldn’t this be great for the game? Wouldn’t you reckon UK would be about ready to replace Cal, who’s fabulous recruiting abilities seem to have mysteriously waned, so that they can benefit from Jay Wright’s fabulous recruiting abilities?
You are a gentleman and a scholar.
Rock Chalk!
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@jaybate-1.0 Wright is a better in game coach than Calipari. You frequently overrate Self.
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BShark said:
@jaybate-1.0 Wright is a better in game coach than Calipari. You frequently overrate Self.
NEVER overrate Self. His numbers speak for themselves, especially with the level of talent he gets to coach in comparison with the other top coaches. Self has NEVER had a team as talented as Jay’s was last season.
Regarding Jay vs. Cal as game coaches, you kind of pulled that out of thin air, so let me ground you in some quantitative reality.
Lifetime W&L
Jay 544-250 (.685)
Cal 678-202 (.770)
Cal seems to win more games and win at a higher rate.
So far as I can recall, all of Cal’s victories were achieved, while he was an “in game coach,” so it appears that Cal is quite a bit better “in-game” coach than Jay.
Though I admit, “in game coach” is a pretty fuzzy concept.
I am only using it because it is what you gave me.
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@jaybate-1.0 Cal has, in the past, consistently got more NBA talent than Jay Wright. Only looking at wins and losses is short sighted.
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BShark said:
@jaybate-1.0 Cal has, in the past, consistently got more NBA talent than Jay Wright. Only looking at wins and losses is short sighted.
Not shortsighted at all.
Evidence based.
Quantitative.
Large N.
Reliable.
Coherent.
Not out of nowhere.
