Bracket Construction - MW
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UVA got absolutely screwed as the #1 overall seed. They put two of the seven most talented (based on raw talent) teams in the country in their draw. I can’t see a way for UVA to get to the Elite Eight without going through either Arizona or Kentucky, and whichever one of those teams they face gets a few days to prepare for the packline, and they have NBA talent at their disposal. They will likely see a good shooting Creighton team in the Round of 32, followed by either UK or Zona, then possibly Cincinnati (think Virginia, but more physical with less technique) in the regional final. That is a brutal stretch of games.
Xavier has the possibility of Mizzou and Michael Porter lurking in the second round. Porter will have a full week of practices, plus a couple games under his belt by then, so he could be ready to turn things upside down. Porter will be the most talented player on the floor, and that could be enough to carry a fiesty Mizzou team to the second weekend.
Villanova drew a tough matchup as well. If they run into Collin Sexton and a healthy Alabama team, they will also not have the best player on the floor. That’s not a good combination in a single elimination tournament. Should they win that, either West Virginia or Wichita State is waiting. That’s not going to be fun for Nova.
Honestly, I was shocked at how good KU got it. No Arizona. No Kentucky. No Mizzou. No Wichita State. The four is Auburn. The five is Clemson. The 8/9 is NC State and Seton Hall. All solid teams, but all teams that are similar to Big 12 teams that KU has handled this year. Now, the Elite Eight possibility of Duke or Michigan State is scary because they can both demolish KU inside, but if KU can get to that point and then hit 15+ threes in that game, they could win even while giving up 40 points in the paint.
The potential for this KU season went up quite a bit over the weekend with how Newman and De Sousa played. It got a little more help yesterday with the draw. I’m not dreaming of a Final Four (still too much of a chance that KU gets ground to dust in the paint), but I do think KU could legitimately get to the Elite Eight again, and at that point, its one game, and for a team that can get hot from distance, that’s the kind of game where maybe a crapshoot is the best chance for an otherwise flawed team.
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I was pleasantly surprised at our early draws too. Nice for some other #1 seed besides us to get screwed for a change.
It’s turning into a pretty decent March so far.
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justanotherfan said:
UVA got absolutely screwed as the #1 overall seed. They put two of the seven most talented (based on raw talent) teams in the country in their draw. I can’t see a way for UVA to get to the Elite Eight without going through either Arizona or Kentucky, and whichever one of those teams they face gets a few days to prepare for the packline, and they have NBA talent at their disposal. They will likely see a good shooting Creighton team in the Round of 32, followed by either UK or Zona, then possibly Cincinnati (think Virginia, but more physical with less technique) in the regional final. That is a brutal stretch of games.
Xavier has the possibility of Mizzou and Michael Porter lurking in the second round. Porter will have a full week of practices, plus a couple games under his belt by then, so he could be ready to turn things upside down. Porter will be the most talented player on the floor, and that could be enough to carry a fiesty Mizzou team to the second weekend.
Villanova drew a tough matchup as well. If they run into Collin Sexton and a healthy Alabama team, they will also not have the best player on the floor. That’s not a good combination in a single elimination tournament. Should they win that, either West Virginia or Wichita State is waiting. That’s not going to be fun for Nova.
Honestly, I was shocked at how good KU got it. No Arizona. No Kentucky. No Mizzou. No Wichita State. The four is Auburn. The five is Clemson. The 8/9 is NC State and Seton Hall. All solid teams, but all teams that are similar to Big 12 teams that KU has handled this year. Now, the Elite Eight possibility of Duke or Michigan State is scary because they can both demolish KU inside, but if KU can get to that point and then hit 15+ threes in that game, they could win even while giving up 40 points in the paint.
The potential for this KU season went up quite a bit over the weekend with how Newman and De Sousa played. It got a little more help yesterday with the draw. I’m not dreaming of a Final Four (still too much of a chance that KU gets ground to dust in the paint), but I do think KU could legitimately get to the Elite Eight again, and at that point, its one game, and for a team that can get hot from distance, that’s the kind of game where maybe a crapshoot is the best chance for an otherwise flawed team.
Virginia is still better then the teams they will face though. Creighton is a tough matchup especially if they play up to how they beat Villanova. Not sure they are that scared of playing either team though. They handled Duke and UNC. Arizona doesn’t defend nearly as well but has one really good player and two other good ones. Kentucky blitzed the weak SEC tourney and could be a 1st round upset or a Elite 8 type team.
Missouri’s 2nd leading scorer is out the first game, not a guarantee they can even win the first. Xavier is better then them by far
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Virginia is the most consistently good team in the country. They just don’t play poorly. I agree that they are a better team than the other teams in their bracket. That’s why they are #1 overall.
But when I look at upsets, I look at either style, matchups or overall talent. Virginia is better than UK and Arizona, no doubt. But if UK or Arizona plays to their talent, UVA will be hard pressed to win that game because UK and Arizona both have more talent. Of course, either UK or Arizona could get bounced in their first round game because they are both inconsistent. But they could be a nightmare because they have so much talent.
Mizzou is a dangerous team because if Porter is fully healthy, he will give Mizzou the best player on the floor every night. That doesn’t mean Mizzou wins, but if Porter can randomly toss up a 25 point, 12 rebound, 6 assist, 4 block, 2 steal night, that’s a tough hill to climb for any opponent. Again, they can get bounced in the first round, but they can also give people a lot of problems because they are solid without Porter, but can play up to elite with him.
This is the tournament. They only have to win one game against these teams. Arizona, Kentucky and Missouri all have that type of talent.
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Anyone hear if dean Wade is healed?
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@Crimsonorblue22 Brown and Wade are expected to play.
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@BShark brown’s eye looked fine. Miraculous recovery!
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justanotherfan said:
Virginia is the most consistently good team in the country. They just don’t play poorly. I agree that they are a better team than the other teams in their bracket. That’s why they are #1 overall.
But when I look at upsets, I look at either style, matchups or overall talent. Virginia is better than UK and Arizona, no doubt. But if UK or Arizona plays to their talent, UVA will be hard pressed to win that game because UK and Arizona both have more talent. Of course, either UK or Arizona could get bounced in their first round game because they are both inconsistent. But they could be a nightmare because they have so much talent.
Mizzou is a dangerous team because if Porter is fully healthy, he will give Mizzou the best player on the floor every night. That doesn’t mean Mizzou wins, but if Porter can randomly toss up a 25 point, 12 rebound, 6 assist, 4 block, 2 steal night, that’s a tough hill to climb for any opponent. Again, they can get bounced in the first round, but they can also give people a lot of problems because they are solid without Porter, but can play up to elite with him.
This is the tournament. They only have to win one game against these teams. Arizona, Kentucky and Missouri all have that type of talent.
Good points. I’ve been looking for ways to knock Virginia all year. I’m sure most of America has tried as well because their style just seems to be an outlier in today’s game.
I have tried to see as many Virginia games as possible and they just don’t budge. At Duke, they neutralized a team that scores as well as any in the country and left them scrambling to come back. Completely took Roy out of his up-tempo style twice. Play the slow down game against Clemson, you name it. Every time I think they are a Kyle Guy bad shooting night away from losing someone steps up, Hall, Jerome, Hunter, Wilkins. They do enough, they execute as well on both sides of the ball as any team I’ve seen in years. It’s not always pretty either which makes it even more frustrating.
Of the teams in their way until the Elite 8 Creighton seems like the toughest matchup from what I’ve seen. The style of play as you mentioned with shooters everywhere is something I think might be able to hurt them. Their offense would really test Virginia’s ability to force teams into a bad shooting night. Also looking at Virginia’s recent tournament history and you find that their defense doesn’t become as much of an advantage because of the competitiveness the games become. Everyone is giving effort and so it becomes more about guard play, scoring as much as defending.
Ayton might be really talented but Virginia has a defense that puts a dominate post player into retreat. One man can’t beat them alone and I think Arizona’s lineup and depth is too dysfunctional to play team ball for 40 minutes against them.
I don’t know whether to view Kentucky’s sudden shooting barrage as a sign of a team peaking or just playing really bad competition. Half of it seemed to just be a shear talent edge. I don’t believe they have the team makeup to defeat Virginia without having some major momentum on their side. SGA and Gabriel played out of their mind in the SEC tourney, SGA seems capable of keeping it up but Gabriel’s shooting was definitely unlikely coming in.
Porter, fully healthy would be lethal. Not sure he’s going to be fully healthy playing regardless. It might be like expecting Doke to be anywhere near 100% for the tournament. I doubt Porter will be at his best but maybe he surprises as you mentioned. I know he’s probably eager to prove to scouts he should be a Top 3 pick. That could play a part and the fact that their best wing player is out now means he has even more opportunity to create offense for himself.
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Buster 1926 said:
Is not like the old days when one or two talented teams ran the table & was a cut & dried tournament. There are probably close to a dozen teams that can win 6 straight & hang the banner.
UK, Nova, Duke, UNC, MSU, KU, Cincinnati, & AZ are all no brainers. I also believe UVA gets a raw deal with AZ in their bracket as a 4. Clearly AZ as a 4 is wrong & thrilled anyone else gets them instead of us. I asked the question yesterday & got no response but didn’t the “Golden Porter” at misery play like only 3 games this year & misery lost all 3 ?? LOL If misery can win even one game with him in the mix, they will have likely reached their ceiling .
Throw in some dark horse
s like Zaga, Xavier, Auburn & even Rick Barnes Tennessee Vols, & there is enough talent out there to really have a double elimination tournament for at least about 16 teams. Not very often does the best team win the dance 
. That’s why we really need to have a clear perspective on this made for tv 
show. That’s really what CBS & the 2 AA want for their ultimate financial windfall. Memba-Is all about dat money 
boys.Pretty sure Porter was hurt 2 minutes into their first game. They lost the game he returned for.
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The committee might not like UK but the refs will compensate for that, of course not nearly as much as they will for Duke.
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@Crimsonorblue22 I heard Dean and brown will both play.
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@JayHawkFanToo The Squid is a textbook example on how to always ensure you get the very worst bracket position in the country.
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Insult the committee every year.
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Whine incessantly every time.
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Belittle and disparage the city where you are going to.
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Buster 1926 said:
@BeddieKU23 Let’s not forget misery also lost the forgotten exhibtion charity game vs KU at Sprint . Yeeeaaahhh !! Didn’t even have to take off a shoe . That’s 3. Yep, they still suck. Shoulda played WSU instead & kept the money in Kansas.
If we count that game as well sure. I think Missouri loses its first round game. Having one of their top players out with a less then 100% ready Porter spells doom
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KUSTEVE said:
@JayHawkFanToo The Squid is a textbook example on how to always ensure you get the very worst bracket position in the country.
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Insult the committee every year.
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Whine incessantly every time.
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Belittle and disparage the city where you are going to.
Are you sure your not talking about Jim Boeheim
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The thing about teams who haven’t played a truly poor game yet this season, it means they are due.
I don’t think UVA survives their path to the FF. It’s just such a tough road where they will face talented offenses and brutal defenses. 3 of the top 4 defenses are in that region. One is Virginia, the other two are Tennessee and Cincinnati. So, if they can get passed UK or Zona, they have a brutal Elite 8 game that will be a dog fight.
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@Kcmatt7 Virginia would do just fine against Cincinnati or Tennessee. Virginia’s issues are going to be against teams that play up tempo and Kentucky and Arizona are both really good up tempo teams. Either of those teams are capable of dropping 70+ on Virginia which is how you beat them.
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I would love for Virginia to run into a low seeded team that gets hot and start hitting everything and hangs 90 on them.
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@KUSTEVE Marsha?
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A team hasn’t scored 70 on Virginia this season. Pack a lunch.
Duke #3 Adjusted O, #78 tempo- 63 points
North Carolina #4 Adjusted O, #50 Tempo , 49, 63 points in two meetings.
Florida St #30 Adjusted O, #30 Tempo, 55 points
Davidson #18 Adjusted O, 60 points
Notre Dame #32 Adjusted O, 57 points
West Virginia #14 Adjusted O, 68 points in a W
Virginia Tech #39 Adjusted O, 52, 61 points in a W
Seems to be “Virginia schools” have had the most luck
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@Crimsonorblue22 Marsha’s incessant whining is causing him to get bad bracket positions as well. BTW, we might end up playing New Mexico St, who is coached by former WSU drunken, ass grabbing asst. Chris Jans. My question to you is…if Jans went out with Marsha, and Mrs Marsha, which drunken lush would grab ass the first…Jans or Mrs. Marsha?
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@KUSTEVE jans
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@BeddieKU23 That is why I think a defensive team may be a bad matchup for them. Wisconsin kept it kind of close with them early in the year. If Cincy or Tennessee can hold them to 50, we just might see a game.
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@Crimsonorblue22 So, who would cuss first?
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@KUSTEVE mrs
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@Buster-1926 I wondered why WSU took Jans back so quickly after he was canned trying his 'hide the salami routine" in a bar. I’m thinking Mrs. Marsha needed a drinking buddy.
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It’s real simple…if you want to make sure your team gets a great seed, you must do this:
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Kcmatt7 said:
@BeddieKU23 That is why I think a defensive team may be a bad matchup for them. Wisconsin kept it kind of close with them early in the year. If Cincy or Tennessee can hold them to 50, we just might see a game.
That’s true. I have mentioned that I thought a zone defense might be a way to throw Virginia off its tempo offensively. They play great defense and then make you defend late into the clock. I think a zone would make their guys shoot earlier and keep them out of their rhythm. Either that or being paired with another good defensive team like you mentioned
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Anyone picking big 12 teams to win first game? Every year they let me down. Wondering how wade and Evans injuries are healing. Did we ever hear what wades injury was, other than foot injury? I heard stress fracture and old foot problem from pin. Think young could show up on the big stage or will he take 100 shots? Interesting
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KU, Tech, West Virginia are locks IMO.
TCU should win their matchup, who ever in the first 4.
Kansas St has a tough matchup, I think they lose.
Nevada isn’t a good matchup for Texas, they score, Texas doesn’t.
OU really isn’t playing like a tourney team. Unless Young has 50 Rhode Island will find a way to defend him
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@BeddieKU23 oh I forgot about mo bamba’s injury.
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Saw Bruce on the news tonight, doesn’t sound like positive news for dean wade. Game time decision.
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Crimsonorblue22 said:
Saw Bruce on the news tonight, doesn’t sound like positive news for dean wade. Game time decision.
That sucks for Wade. Don’t feel bad for Weber
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FWIW, Doke is also game time decision.
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@BeddieKU23 They are absolutely not beating Creighton w/o him.
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@JayHawkFanToo I know that!
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KUSTEVE said:
@Crimsonorblue22 Marsha’s incessant whining is causing him to get bad bracket positions as well. BTW, we might end up playing New Mexico St, who is coached by former WSU drunken, ass grabbing asst. Chris Jans. My question to you is…if Jans went out with Marsha, and Mrs Marsha, which drunken lush would grab ass the first…Jans or Mrs. Marsha?
This is so good. LOL… I couldn’t imagine anyone wanting to grab Mrs. Marsha’s ass, btw. She might turn the tables on you real quick and start grabbing back!
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Got your wish.
JayHawkFanToo said:
I would love for Virginia to run into a low seeded team that gets hot and start hitting everything and hangs 90 on them.
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Not quite 90 but I’ll take it.
