Bracketology thread for the next few weeks.
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Two teams are locks for #1 seed right now, Virginia & Villanova. They are a combined 28-5 vs Top 100 competition (RPI).
KU is not out of the race for a #1 seed which sounds crazy but its true. 17-6 against Top 100 is the most wins and most games played against Top 100 competition in all of D-1. If they won the last 4 regular season games and won the Big-12 tourney there is no way they are not getting a #1 seed at 28-6. I can’t see a team that potentially wins the Big-12 regular season, tourney championship and the resume they will potentially have not being rewarded. Of course the road to get their is difficult. Most likely they end with a #2 seed which was their seed line in the initial reveal.
What does the committee do with Michigan St. They have a 26-3 record and have had the easiest schedule of any Power 5 team in history. 11 wins against 150+ opponents. They have only played 11 teams all season in the Top 100. In the initial Top 16 reveal they were a #3 seed which was surprising but at the same time who have they played? They have no bad losses which helps them. Avoiding the loss to Northwestern who played the best half of their life and the worst half of their life all in one game was essential to a #1 seed. They could get one by default because their record and reputation. Michigan St is just 2-3 vs the top 50. The Big 3 in the Big-10 (Mich St, Purdue, Ohio St) is a combined 10-11 against the Top 50. It looks like the Big-10 has very overrated teams on resume. Don’t get me wrong St & Purdue have very good squads to the eye and Ohio St has had a great bounce-back season.
So who else? Xavier still has a great chance despite being blown out by Villanova twice. No bad losses, lots of quality wins overall. If they take care of business to end the regular season and say upset Villanova in the conference tourney final they would be the most likely next #1 seed. Even if they lose to Nova again they should be rewarded. However we all know reputation matters and Xavier wouldn’t be a “sexy choice”.
With Virginia a lock its hard for Duke or UNC to get a #1 seed. Duke is in a similar position as Michigan St, weak resume overall, just 11 games against Top 100 competition. Beating Clemson on the road minus Bagley helped them. 3 of the next 4 are at home and they get the payback UNC game to end the season. Duke would have to win the next 4 and win the ACC tourney and have KU lose along the way.
UNC is in a similar boat. The bad loss against Wofford really sticks out. They have to win out in the regular season and have a good conference tourney. Their resume keeps them in the hunt but they can’t lose again it looks.
Purdue doesn’t have a #1 seed resume unless they win the Big-10.
Auburn isn’t a #1 seed candidate, much less a #2 seed.
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@BeddieKU23 Duke isn’t getting a 1 seed. That loss to a terrible St. John’s ruined any shot they had.
This is also why using the RPI and this new quadrant system is garbage. Michigan State has clearly been a top 4 team this season and should be the 1 seed in the Midwest this season.
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I disagree that Duke isn’t still in the discussion. The St Johns loss wasn’t as bad using the RPI as the Oklahoma St loss was for KU. Who knows how much of a factor the RPI will still have in final decisions.
Duke is Duke and they have 4 winnable regular season games (3 RPI Top 50 games, 4 Top 100) + the ACC tourney which could put them at something like 29-5 if they won out.
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Lenardi has us as a 1 seed now. Kind of crazy in my view. Ours is the kind of team that could easily suffer an embarrassing 1-8 seed loss.
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wissox said:
Lenardi has us as a 1 seed now. Kind of crazy in my view. Ours is the kind of team that could easily suffer an embarrassing 1-8 seed loss.
There are so many teams that could lose early.
Michigan St has a ton of talent but is 2-3 vs the RPI top 50. They are vulnerable. The Northwestern game was a prime example of a team that could lose itself for a half and not recover.
I generally agree KU having a shot at a #1 seed is crazy and also gives you an idea how volatile the rest of the field is as well. This isn’t a typical year for anyone really. Virginia might be the only #1 seed that would get a #1 seed in past years.
Lunardi didn’t agree with KU being a #2 seed in the initial reveal. He made a good point though, when the teacher gives you a preview of the answers you take notice to that and adjust. With another wild weekend in the books KU’s strength of resume stands out, especially with the Quadrant/tier they are using this season
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The selection and seeding has changed quite a bit now and it has switched to a system of quadrants which assigns more weight to neutral and road games. The conference schedule provides plenty of opportunities to pad the resume with wins against top teams so the weak pre-conference schedule does not hurt as much as it helps teams from the smaller conferences that play strong pre-conference road schedules.
KU is really well positioned with the most wins in quadrant 1. Sometimes we take the team for granted and concentrate on the losses and don’t really realize how many good wins the team has and how good its SOS is.
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I don’t understand the “logic” used to pick brackets and seedings.
Kansas a #1 seed, says Lunardi? Gheezus. Okay… we have some nice wins. What about some of those horrible losses? This is the sort of junk that creates Jayhawk haters… putting us in the same “rigged narrative” as Duke.
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KUSTEVE said:
@jayballer73 Tech beat NW by 35. Yes, great comeback yesterday. But Sparty doesn’t have the schedule to support a 1 seed. 2 Top 50 RPI victories is less than alot of midmajors that aren’t even ranked. Not saying they can’t play like a 1 seed, but they will punished for the cupcake schedule.
Possibly so, I just feel and it’s just me - I just don’t feel we deserve a # 1 seed/ = Actually guy I am not sure if it would do us better NOT to be a # 1 seed - there is not that much difference between a # ! & 2 anyways - Purdue - - - Michigan - - - Ohio State pretty salty - not trying to disagree just me myself feel that they should get the #1 at this point anyways a # 1 over us. -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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drgnslayr said:
I don’t understand the “logic” used to pick brackets and seedings.
Kansas a #1 seed, says Lunardi? Gheezus. Okay… we have some nice wins. What about some of those horrible losses? This is the sort of junk that creates Jayhawk haters… putting us in the same “rigged narrative” as Duke.
The only bad loss KU has to date is Oklahoma St and even then OSU is still hovering inside the Top 100 in RPI because of their own big wins when they feel like playing.
There are other teams with equal bad losses, UNC vs Wofford, Purdue vs Wisconsin, Duke vs Boston College, St Johns & NC St, Villanova vs St Johns, Tech vs Iowa St, Gonzaga vs San Diego St, Auburn vs Temple & South Carolina, Wichita vs SMU & Temple, Arizona vs Western Kentucky, SMU, Colorado, Clemson vs Temple.
Just about every team has had its fair share of letdowns
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wissox said:
I don’t want the #1 seed. To be honest I’d take about a 4 or 5 seed and let them be the underdog. Tired of the losing to a lower seeded team scenario that has afflicted our team the past 5 seasons and 9 of 10 or whatever it is. This is one year we really don’t deserve the #1 seed. We have too many ugly losses obviously with the home losses to good but not great teams.
I Actually have to agree with you on this lol. - I know we have had a couple of times umm we didn’t agree BUT I couldn’t agree more actually. - Again I really don’t care if we are a # 1 this yr or not - -like you say for one thing being a # 1 hasn’t really been that beneficial to us anyways.- -I’m not sure about a 4-5 but I think anywhere from a 1-3 is possible for us - -I would be satisified with a # 2 -we have had our share of early exits with a # 1 seed and losing to lesser teams - We actually haven’t had any dominant wins against quality teams this year. - -What’s our biggest margin of victory in the Big 12? - -We have ONE game by double digits - - that was to K- Straight - other then that they have been - - -6,4,5,1,5,3,7,&5- - -that’s not what you call dominant solid wins.- - -while in the main time have been beatin pretty solid 2 times - -12 by Tech and 16 by Baylor - -so yes some ugly losses.
I’m just not convinced we need or deserve a # 1 - we are top 4 seed we going to be in Wichita chances are anyways but ya I have to agree with ya. - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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BeddieKU23 said:
Only 4 ranked teams haven’t lost in the past TWO Weeks. How crazy is that.
Ranked teams went 27-20 this week. 15 ranked teams lost this week alone.
it has been really crazy this year. - -I don’t think you have that one really dominant team that is head and shoulders above the rest. - Could prove for a really interesting Dance. - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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@BeddieKU23 Thank you for the info. Guess goes to show how naïve I am. I didn’t realize Michigan States schedule sucked so bad & here I was thumping my chest saying they deserved a number 1 spot. - Guess I was feeding to much into their record and how many they have won in a row and where they stand in the rankings right now in the top 25. - -Well what about Texas Tech possibly? - of course a lot of that would ride on how the game turned out with us and the big 12 tourney I reckon. - Heck I don’t begin to know now lol. - - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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drgnslayr said:
I don’t understand the “logic” used to pick brackets and seedings.
Kansas a #1 seed, says Lunardi? Gheezus. Okay… we have some nice wins. What about some of those horrible losses? This is the sort of junk that creates Jayhawk haters… putting us in the same “rigged narrative” as Duke.
True. Plus all it does is feed the frenzy when we are a # 1 seed and then lose the 2nd game or 2nd weekend-- - just feeds what we here yearly - -how we are so overrated - -how we constantly wet all over ourselves - I just don’t see us as a # 1 I just don’t. - - ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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@wissox It is still an amazing thing to be a #1 vs. a #2. The #1 seeds remain 100% perfect against the #16 seeds. The #2 seeds have become more and more vulnerable over the years. I would hate to be another #2 to go down!! That said, I will be thrilled with a #2 seed if that is what we get this year based on the ups and downs of the regular season and our lack of consistency at AFH.
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joeloveshawks said:
@wissox It is still an amazing thing to be a #1 vs. a #2. The #1 seeds remain 100% perfect against the #16 seeds. The #2 seeds have become more and more vulnerable over the years. I would hate to be another #2 to go down!! That said, I will be thrilled with a #2 seed if that is what we get this year based on the ups and downs of the regular season and our lack of consistency at AFH.
Which would be a worse scenario , ANOTHER #2 to go down OR be the 1st # 1 that loses to a # 16 seed in the history of the tourney?
You may think that sounds crazy – but with the type of year we have had - some really bad nights shooting the ball seemed like our heads just not in the game - - the way this season has gone with so many ranked teams being beatin during the season losing to some un ranked teams - - - the way there doesn’t seem to be a really dominant tem - - this season - -we sure are not dominant which would you rather see between those two scenarios? - - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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checking out the sites: - - -Lunardi -has 8 - - yes 8 teams in the tourney right now:
South : - -Texas Tech - 3 - - -Texas - 12 - - - -East:- - West Virginia- 5- - -Oklahoma- 6- - - West:- - KU - 1- - - Baylor- 11- - Midwest- - TCU- 9- - - KSU- 11
Jerry Palm from CBS - - has 7 teams in the tourney right now
South- - Texas Tech- 3- - East:- - West Virginia - 5- - West:- - KU- 1- - KSU- 10 ( vs # 7 Mizzery by the way )- - Midwest- - TCU- 8- - Oklahoma- 7 - - Has Texas/Flordia- - 11’s–playin- - & Baylor first four out.
USA Today Bracket: - -has 8- - -yes 8 teams in the tourney right now
South- - ZERO from the Big 12- - - East:- - Oklahoma-6- - KSU-9- - West- - KU- 1- - West Virginia-5- - TCU-10- - & Baylor- 11- - - Mid West- - Texas Tech- 3- - Texas-10
Geez - - Trae Young is pulling LOT’S of Weight - -announcers yesterday talking about their free fall and to them if they not careful - -Oklahoma will or could very easily become a bubble team. - -Then I see these brackets as of today and they are ASTILL very solid. – a 6 - - 6 --& 7 - -man oh man I don’t get that. Going to be interesting - - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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Do you really think that if KU gets a #1 seed it would lose to #16 seed?
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@BeddieKU23 Our only bad loss is OSU? Oklahoma with 1 vote in todays poll stands as a so so bad loss, Washington, no votes stands as a bad loss.
Now, my real beef with your post. Purdue losing to Wisconsin is a bad loss. That’s it, you’ve crossed the line. Losing to Wisconsin is never a bad loss! It’s to be expected!
Just kidding!
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Most of ya’ll probably know this but Princeton came a missed shot away at the horn from being the only 16 seed to knock off a 1 seed when they nearly beat Georgetown. Southern came quite close against Gonzaga about 3 years ago as well. It’s bound to happen some day and this could be the year.
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I never thought I would say Wisconsin being a bad loss would be true but this year is unlike any in recent memory for the Badgers. As we’ve discussed before, injuries and an inexperienced coach have hurt them this year. Hard to believe Wisconsin is in the #130’s for RPI. Are fans calling for a new coach? What’s the deal with the mood around them… Any program that is used to sustained success like they had and have a down down season cannot be easy for the fans.
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Michigan St is still one of the most talented teams in the country. However I think they are the most talented team likely to lose early in the tournament according to the weak schedule they have played most of the season. They have legitimate NBA talent and Izzo is a good tournament coach who knows how to maximize his teams. I think they are vulnerable, some bad teams have given them scares (like Northwestern) and I’m not sure even Michigan St fans are convinced they have reached their ceiling or will play up to it in tournament time. I get the feeling that they are a bit overrated despite the talent 1-5 on that squad. The eye test says they look as good as anyone out there when they are all engaged (which you could say for any number of teams with enough talent).
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@BeddieKU23 They’re giving a Gard a pass this year. Lost a ton of experience, and then two season ending injuries. The pressure is mounting however as recruiting misses this year has really begun to mount. He’s especially missed on in state kids like Ellenson who went to Marquette for one year, Stone who went to Maryland, and now losing Tyler Herro. Even losing the kid from KC to KU, normally no shame in that, is stinging a bit too. He can point to his last class (this years freshmen who are all decent players and will grow into very good players I think. Next year with a senior Ethan Happ, and healthy experienced players younger than him, they should expect to dance again, but if not, he’ll really feel the heat.
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JayHawkFanToo said:
Do you really think that if KU gets a #1 seed it would lose to #16 seed?
With the way this season has played out – with there not being a really dominant team - with the way how badly as Ku has played at times this year - the scoring droughts we have went through this year - the way so many ranked teams have got beaten by non ranked teams this year - -you dam skippy it cold happen with out a doubt. - -Do you think beyond a shadow of a doubt can say they couldn’t? - anything can and has happened - -not really sure why you couldn’t think it couldn’t. - it’s gonna happen sooner or later - - NOTHING would surprise me in this year of Basketball - -that’s why they play the games. - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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@wissox Their demise this year has contributed to the B10 being pretty weak this year. Of course, Minnysota and NW’s collapse hasn’t helped matters either.
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@jayballer73 Being the first #1 would be one of the all time upsets. Goes without saying. That would cut as deep as any loss in KU history. But I don’t think that is reason enough to not want a #1 seed. In theory the #1 has the easiest path and #1 seeds have been to the Final 4 more than any other seed. I fully understand what you are saying though. It sort of feels like the year that would happen!!
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joeloveshawks said:
@jayballer73 Being the first #1 would be one of the all time upsets. Goes without saying. That would cut as deep as any loss in KU history. But I don’t think that is reason enough to not want a #1 seed. In theory the #1 has the easiest path and #1 seeds have been to the Final 4 more than any other seed. I fully understand what you are saying though. It sort of feels like the year that would happen!!
Ya not saying it will happen - just saying t could happen without to much of a stretch with the way this season has gone.
I just don’t really see a huge spread between the #1’s - -and # 2’s this year - and we never have had a lot of success when we are a number 1 seed so either way I’m good. - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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Oklahoma drops to 16-11 losers 9 of their last 11, most places still have them as a 9, not even on the last 4 byes list SMH. If they get in without winning at least 3 more games including the B12 tournament, its rigged for viewership plain and simple.
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We play more like this we just might be a top seed. I still don’t want it.
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@wissox i was actually getting excited about playing as a lower seed but you’re right if we win the b12 we will be a 1 for sure.
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I don’t agree. This team is just too good to lose to #16 seed. All the loses have been to very good or good teams, a #16 seed would likely be ranked outside the top 100 and would have had to be in a play-in game. The parity in college basketball is in the top 20-40 teams not between a top 10 and a below 100 team. No way, no how, no ma’am.
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@jayballer73 @JayHawkFanToo This team will smoke the PANTS off most 16 or even 15s I can think of. Absolutely drilled all similar teams we played like that in the non-con. Those kind of teams don’t have the defensive athletes that give this KU team a lot of trouble.
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OU simply has to be on the bubble if not out right now don’t they? I don’t see justification for anything otherwise. Don’t have time to look it up. But I wonder of any other team has lost 6 straight at any point during the season and still made it. And that’s 6 and counting by the way…
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@cragarhawk Supposedly they are on the 8/9 line now. Kinda crazy. KSU is in a worse spot allegedly. I guess after KSU smokes OU again that will change. And I’m no KSU fan I’ve just seen this KU team play both of these teams twice and KSU is much better despite KU’s record against both of them.
KSU if they win out would be looking at going 0-6 vs the three best/most talented teams in the league, but 10-0 against the others. I am not sure I’ve seen anything like that before.
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The only team that made it with a conference record of 4 games below even was ISU a long, long time ago. OU needs to win the next 3 or it will be in serious trouble; anything less than 2 wins and it is out.
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I believe Lunardi said they were dropping a seed line with every loss. Despite the losing streak and downward trend they are still in due to the high quality wins they have. They need to get to 8-10 or 9-9 in conference and survive a round in the Big-12 tourney in order to change the narrative that has been painted on them now. I would say they are still in as of today but that their situation is still fluid. They are not making the tournament if they finish conference 6-12. Only one team ever (Iowa St back before the Big-12) has ever made the tourney with a 7-11 conference mark.
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That would be rare.
Does that make KSU actually better then OU though? OU has big wins which K-St has none. OU and K-St are different teams now so the argument could be made that K-St would have a better chance of winning a big game now
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@BeddieKU23 Certainly is KSU wins out in the regular season they should be ahead of OU in seeding. They will have beat OU twice and OU will at least have another loss.
Their rancid noncon is definitely hurting them now. The ASU loss isn’t bad, but the Tulsa game bites hard. When you schedule 95% terrible teams in the non-con you have no margin for error.
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@BeddieKU23 “I believe Lunardi said they were dropping a seed line with every loss.”
So they will be an 18 or 19 seed by the end of the season?
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@mayjay OMG
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in 2021 when the NCAA tourney is expanded to 136 teams a 18 or 19 seed won’t look so bad
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BShark said:
@BeddieKU23 Certainly is KSU wins out in the regular season they should be ahead of OU in seeding. They will have beat OU twice and OU will at least have another loss.
Their rancid noncon is definitely hurting them now. The ASU loss isn’t bad, but the Tulsa game bites hard. When you schedule 95% terrible teams in the non-con you have no margin for error.
Well I wouldn’t seed KSU higher then Oklahoma just because of a H2H. KSU is definitely better, I imagine having Stokes back is only helping them now. K-St will be a tough team to seed as you said on their horrid non-con.
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If they win out against three other fringe tournament teams as well though (Texas, Baylor and TCU) they should be firmly in regardless of what happens in the conference tournament.
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@BeddieKU23 KSU’s wins are a stark contrast a their horrible losses. Even I, as fierce a fan who ever pointed an oil can in Squeaky’s direction, have to give him some points the past few weeks.
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K-State’s remaining schedule gives them an opportunity to play themselves in. Go 3-1, plus win their first Big 12 tournament game, and they probably get in. 2-2 leaves them on the bubble. Worse probably eliminates them. I do think it’s a little ridiculous that the bracket has KSU, Baylor and Texas all in, but solid teams from middle tier conferences (Boise State, St. Bonaventure) are in the same position or worse. I really do think the NCAA should move to a .500 record requirement for an at large bid. While that would hurt the Big 12 this year as one or two of TCU, Texas, and Oklahoma would probably miss the dance based on that, but if you aren’t good in your conference, why should you be competing to be the best team in the country?
.500 in conference isn’t some crazy requirement. Big 12 would still get 5 or 6 teams in this year. SEC probably would still get 8 teams in. Pac 12 would likely get 5. Big 10 would probably get 6. ACC would probably have 8 or 9. Half the field would still come from Power 5 conferences. The only difference would be that Baylor, Texas, TCU, KSU and Oklahoma would all be playing for their tournament lives over the next couple of weeks to stay above .500. Meanwhile, lots of first and second place teams from middle level conferences wouldn’t be playing for their lives just because they lost their conference tournament final. No, St. Bonaventure couldn’t win the Big 12, but this year, neither could Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma, Texas, or K-State. We shouldn’t compare these teams to the top teams in the conference and say they would finish towards the middle or bottom of a Power Conference when that’s exactly where Baylor is going to finish this year.
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I’m all for that requirement. would add an interesting competitive dynamic to these last few weeks
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JayHawkFanToo said:
I don’t agree. This team is just too good to lose to #16 seed. All the loses have been to very good or good teams, a #16 seed would likely be ranked outside the top 100 and would have had to be in a play-in game. The parity in college basketball is in the top 20-40 teams not between a top 10 and a below 100 team. No way, no how, no ma’am.
well I know one for sure that’s not good. - - Washington is not a good team - you consider Washington a good team ? - if you do you need to grab a websters and look up the definition of good. - - ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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No Texas or OU. I’m for cutting the field in half and making it double elimination.
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jayballer73 said:
JayHawkFanToo said:
I don’t agree. This team is just too good to lose to #16 seed. All the loses have been to very good or good teams, a #16 seed would likely be ranked outside the top 100 and would have had to be in a play-in game. The parity in college basketball is in the top 20-40 teams not between a top 10 and a below 100 team. No way, no how, no ma’am.
well I know one for sure that’s not good. - - Washington is not a good team - you consider Washington a good team ? - if you do you need to grab a websters and look up the definition of good. - - ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
Yes Washington is a decent team and quite a bit better than a sixteen seed.
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All of these “who deserves to get in” are dependent on conference tournaments proceeding as seeded.
When did that ever happen? For you fans who pay attention to lesser conferences, how will, say, 3 to 5 upsets in mid-major conferences change things? Which regular season champs, if upset, are automatically out, and which ones supplant the proffered “last 4 in”?
Edit: I realize a team considered in right now might stay in despite an upset. But the committee also has a history of punishing upsetees.
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jayballer73 said:
JayHawkFanToo said:
I don’t agree. This team is just too good to lose to #16 seed. All the loses have been to very good or good teams, a #16 seed would likely be ranked outside the top 100 and would have had to be in a play-in game. The parity in college basketball is in the top 20-40 teams not between a top 10 and a below 100 team. No way, no how, no ma’am.
well I know one for sure that’s not good. - - Washington is not a good team - you consider Washington a good team ? - if you do you need to grab a websters and look up the definition of good. - - ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
Have you looked at the PAC 12 standings? 5th place Washington is a clear bubble team that has a winning conference record right now. Baylor and OSU are both worse losses for KU than Washington is right now.
