Bracketology thread for the next few weeks.
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wissox said:
@BeddieKU23 They’re giving a Gard a pass this year. Lost a ton of experience, and then two season ending injuries. The pressure is mounting however as recruiting misses this year has really begun to mount. He’s especially missed on in state kids like Ellenson who went to Marquette for one year, Stone who went to Maryland, and now losing Tyler Herro. Even losing the kid from KC to KU, normally no shame in that, is stinging a bit too. He can point to his last class (this years freshmen who are all decent players and will grow into very good players I think. Next year with a senior Ethan Happ, and healthy experienced players younger than him, they should expect to dance again, but if not, he’ll really feel the heat.
I can see them giving Gard a pass this year but he has to start recruiting at a higher level. Wisconsin even with its success hasn’t signed Top 100 kids regularly which made Ryan’s success even more impressive. He maximized talent so well and always found program players. Of course they have gotten guys like Dekker and Happ in the past so you can get kids there. The misses in recruiting as you noted are starting to pile up. I worry that Gard isn’t establishing his own identity with Wisconsin as well as one might hope he would already. Of course I don’t follow them as close as you do but even the 10 foot view looks as if he’s trying to do the same as Ryan did without the success.
Next year will be a huge year for the program and Gard. If most of the team returns (which I think will happen) there’s a lot of promise if everyone is healthy. The key to next years team seems to be having an established post rotation alongside Happ. Ford & Reuvers are young and have received valuable playing time this year to build off. Wisconsin has had remarkable success getting little-used big men to come out of no where, Van Vliet & Illikainen do not seem to be candidates to follow that path which has to be a big disappointment to fans and the staff.
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Kcmatt7 said:
@BeddieKU23 Follow the money…
Wouldn’t be shocked to see two of 3 make it out of USC, UCLA and Washington. And somehow St. Bonnies won’t make it because of some stupid Quadrant thing…
Also, in ESPN’s bracket, I would rather see several of the 6 or 7 seeds than the 8/9 seeds at the moment. If this were really how it played out, I’d be kind of pissed.
Also, if KU wins out the Big XII title outright, don’t we deserve to win the MidWest 1 seed over Xavier? Of course I’m biased.
Xavier has a really good chance of getting a #1 seed despite likely to be the 2nd best team from the Big East. It looks likely they will at least tie for the Big East championship with Villanova, Xavier plays Providence at home & @ Depaul left meanwhile Nova has road tests at Creighton, Seton Hall and then ends with Georgetown.
If they win the Conference tourney and say beat Villanova while doing it they are likely a #1 seed. They have no bad losses as far as losing to teams they shouldn’t have. In a season that has seen so many upsets every week Xavier is one of the few that has been consistent. I will note that when they lose, they don’t even lose competitively (avg 16) in their 4 losses. I’ve seen them play a handful of games, they are a good team. I’m not convinced they have a Final 4 type ceiling which you would expect from a #1 seed. Maybe I’m undervaluing them a bit, they seem like a safe team that scores a lot. They are not a defensive juggernaut by any means which I think is the biggest risk with them (Kenpom’s 70th ranked D).
I think at least 2 of the 3 Pac-12 teams are tournament teams. I think Washington has work to do like winning its next four games. If they can’t beat Stanford, Cal, Oregon St & Oregon they don’t belong in the tourney. USC is currently 2nd in the Pac-12 with an extremely weak resume. The 2nd place team in the Pac-12 is making the tourney though. UCLA is in a really tough stretch. End the season with 3 straight road games and none of them are easy. UCLA has to win one of them, beating Utah tonight in a true bubble game for both would go a long way in keeping them in.
I agree as it stands it looks like the committee is valuing the quadrant thing heavy. You might see 8/9 seeds that are better then the 6/7 seeds and it could all be because of resume and scheduling. As always we are going to see teams under-seeded and over-seeded and wonder how they came up with it all.
If KU continues this turnaround and momentum they will be a #1 seed. Winning out would be the easiest way that happens. Winning the Big-12 gives us another ace in the hole. Winning the Conference Tourney would give us a chance at overall #1 depending on how things shake out. If we have 7 losses we’ll need help to stay on the 1 line. Anything more then 7 losses is going to land us a #2 seed I believe. Our strong resume with quadrant wins keeps us in play for everything. I’m pumped to see how the next couple weeks go!
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Syracuse really needed that home win against UNC last night. Jim lives on the bubble every year and whines for days when he’s included or excluded. Cuse isn’t a tournament team IMO.
What does the committee do with Oklahoma St. 4 wins against ranked teams. They will have to keep winning.
Louisville is another ACC team that does not belong in the NCAA tourney. Are they even allowed? I have no idea they have so many in-house and NCAA penalties its been hard to keep up.
Alabama got crushed by Auburn, that would have been a big upset for them. Can’t see them dancing
Clemson is falling apart having lost 3 straight. Virginia Tech looks safely in.
Florida is definitely a team with work to do. 11 losses and more to come. Definitely trending towards the bubble.
K-St & TCU did what they needed to do last night. TCU has a brutal stretch to end conference play. Beating Baylor & K-St would put them safely in.
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I would love to see Xavier win the conference over Villanova. Villanova has the longest streak of tiles after KU with 6 and losing would put them back at square one…and 15 or more years away from breaking the streak…assuming KU does not continue to win titles.
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Xavier is in a good position to win the Conference by itself if they take care of business and catch a lucky break.
Villanova’s upcoming road games are tough. Creighton and Seton Hall are projected in the field right now. I wouldn’t say either is likely to beat Villanova unless either plays the best game of the year. Nova just got back one of their guards who had been out 7 games with a hand injury.
I didn’t realize Nova had won that many Big East Championships in a row. Much like the Big-12 its a round robin schedule so I do give them a ton of credit for having that kind of sustained success.
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I would love to see Xavier get the #1 seed and then become the first #1 seed to lose a first round game. They have become my least liked team in America that isn’t named Missouri. Even Duke at least gets my grudging respect because they run a clean program.
But Xavier, wow. They were involved in a fracas the other day. Wisconsin played them two years ago in the dance and Xavier strutted all over the court like they were gods gift to college hoops until Koenig drilled them out of the tourney with that amazing 3. This year Xavier comes into Madison to play a suddenly undermanned Badger team which hangs with them, but in the end disappointment. But along the way Xavier shushes the crowd, taunts Badger players and then when they wrapped up the win starts doing the Florida Gator chomp thing towards our crowd. Florida knocked out the Badgers last season on that amazing buzzer beater and so somehow Xavier thinks that they need to remind us fans of it? Totally classless. Don’t know how teams that have to play them regularly stand it, but I guarantee if KU had to play them they would be one of ya’lls least favorite teams also.
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@JayHawkFanToo I like the pic, but am trying to figure out the reason it was posted!
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You wrote:
”along the way Xavier shushes the crowd.”
So did Mason at Bramledge, just sayin’…
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@JayHawkFanToo Gotcha. Slight difference. KU players have earned the ‘right’ to do such things. Not sure about Xavier.
After posting yesterday I read about an Xavier player addressing the Cincinnati coach with an F bomb in the hand shake line. Of course Cincy is still Cincy and the coach said he should have gone and fought him. Maybe it’s something about Cincinnati!
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Every player or team that does it feels they earned it.
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#1 seed nearing reality?
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@wissox still work to do. But is looking like more of a probability
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With Syracuse getting whipped by duke and Roach’s heroics to lift Texas by Okie State they may still have a chance to get in. Baylor was in but another loss on the road to TCU hurt their chances. It may depend on who goes further in the B12 tournament to determine who gets in between Texas and Baylor, I personally think OU should be in the same boat tho most had them as a 9 or 10 before today’s win over KSU. At this point it seems that KU, WVU, TT, TCU and KSU should all be locks IMO. Oklahoma, Texas and Baylor probably all don’t get in but it looks like there is a fat chance 2 of the 3 do, ether way 7 or 8 of a 10 team league is pretty salty. Hopefully the conference can back up the hype that they have had all year about being the best conference.
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wissox said:
#1 seed nearing reality?
I think if we win the next two and a game or two in the Big 12 tournament, the one seed is a good probability.
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@kjayhawks you mean Trae young team? He’ll get in
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The more I look at it, the more I think Xavier will not be a 1 seed. They have 1 win over a ranked team. They have double digit losses to the other ranked team ( Nova ) they have faced. 3 ranked teams…2 losses. I see them losing in the BE tourney, and either Michigan Slease, or Dook passing them on the 1 line.
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Xavier with one game lead over Villanova and 2 easier games to finish conference play. If Xavier wins over Providence and De Paul, it wins the conference ending Villanova’s streak of 6, currently second longest to KU.
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@JayHawkFanToo Understood. I still am not sold as them as a 1 seed. I think they’re a 2 seed.
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It was more of a mention of the second current longest streak of 6 titles likely coming to an end. The next longest I believe is 4 which means the earliest KU’s streak could be broken is in 11 years (2030), asumming KU stops winning the conference (definitely not next year) and the other team continues winning; both highly unlikely.
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KUSTEVE said:
@JayHawkFanToo Understood. I still am not sold as them as a 1 seed. I think they’re a 2 seed.
I agree they look more like a 2 seed watching them play. Still their record is impressive, winning the Big East which also has a round robin schedule has to be considered as well and they don’t have bad losses from a RPI standpoint. Xavier has beaten 4 ranked teams at the time that they played them. They are 13-4 against the Top 100. What hurts them is the publicity Villanova has received all year long and losing both games to them, badly.
Duke is in the same boat, being overshadowed by Virginia in their own conference. They have to win against UNC Saturday and the ACC tourney to get a #1 seed IMO. Duke’s resume doesn’t give them a ton of room for error if they don’t.
Michigan St has a great record but has the weakest resume of any team being considered for a #1 seed. So weak they were a #3 seed in the initial reveal a few weeks ago. Michigan St will be the last #1 seed if the cards fall right for them.
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@JayHawkFanToo The streak will actually be broken next year.
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KU keeps winning and Kenpom keeps dropping its defense.
Meanwhile Duke plays a bunch of cupcakes and see’s their defense go from #90 to # 17 in two weeks. They have defended better playing zone defense, I’ll give them that.
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We have all agreed this could be the most topsy turvy tourney (like that?) in history. Any of the top 8 seed lines could probably beat any others. Figuring out distinctions between seed lines is probably hopeless.
But, if history is a guide, when things go crazy, consistency is paramount. KU is playing its most encouraging ball of the year in the most stressful circumstances–we were effectively in a single elimination situation involving our second most important season goal for 4 games running. Major factor in our favor!
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mayjay said:
We have all agreed this could be the most topsy turvy tourney (like that?) in history. Any of the top 8 seed lines could probably beat any others. Figuring out distinctions between seed lines is probably hopeless.
But, if history is a guide, when things go crazy, consistency is paramount. KU is playing its most encouraging ball of the year in the most stressful circumstances–we were effectively in a single elimination situation involving our second most important season goal for 4 games running. Major factor in our favor!
Agree! Momentum is on our side. Hopefully we can sustain it.
This team has a ton of guts when the stakes are the highest. It’s been impressive to see
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@BeddieKU23 No kidding. We went from #24 to #41 in defensive efficiency by giving up 74 to OU, and 72 to TT. Inexplicable. I have always thought that Kenpom’s # have been sketchy, so I don’t put much stock in whatever he’s cooking up. If you listen to him in an interview, he sounds like an oily used car salesman.
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@KUSTEVE Does defensive efficiency by KP factor in opp’s offensive rebounds?
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@mayjay That would have to be the only possible explanation. I still don’t see how that would make that huge of an impact. The other thing is we out rebounded OU by 13, then we lost by 5 to tech on the boards. Last time, I think Tech beat us by 15 on the boards. We held Tech to 42% shooting %, so I am still not seeing how we dropped so far.
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Yes, I have noticed improvement defensively, and I normally don’t put much stock into advanced metrics. The eye test reveals improvement, so that is what I am going with.
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@HawkChamp Agreed.
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@KUSTEVE Did it go down after OU, or just after both games combined? It could be that the OU game had little influence but TT alone was the reason. Acc to sports-reference.com, the only thing besides off rebs that was noticeably different between the two was TT’s off rtg of 112 compared to 102 for OU. 112 with the 13 off rebs by TTU may have been enough to drop us.
By comparison, UVA’s last 4 games have held opponents’ off rtgs to 100, 87, 100, and 67 (Pitt on Sat). We have not held a team below 102 since TCU on Feb 6 (95).
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mayjay said:
@KUSTEVE Did it go down after OU, or just after both games combined? It could be that the OU game had little influence but TT alone was the reason. Acc to sports-reference.com, the only thing besides off rebs that was noticeably different between the two was TT’s off rtg of 112 compared to 102 for OU. 112 with the 13 off rebs by TTU may have been enough to drop us.
By comparison, UVA’s last 4 games have held opponents’ off rtgs to 100, 87, 100, and 67 (Pitt on Sat). We have not held a team below 102 since TCU on Feb 6 (95).
Some of the bottom feeder ACC teams are not very good. Tech and West Virginia are much better than Pitt and its not even close.
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@mayjay We beat OU by 30, and our defensive eff goes from 24th up to 33. We beat Tech, and it went up to #41.
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mayjay said:
@KUSTEVE Did it go down after OU, or just after both games combined? It could be that the OU game had little influence but TT alone was the reason. Acc to sports-reference.com, the only thing besides off rebs that was noticeably different between the two was TT’s off rtg of 112 compared to 102 for OU. 112 with the 13 off rebs by TTU may have been enough to drop us.
By comparison, UVA’s last 4 games have held opponents’ off rtgs to 100, 87, 100, and 67 (Pitt on Sat). We have not held a team below 102 since TCU on Feb 6 (95).
The defensive #'s have been going the wrong way for the past month or so. KU was holding in the 20’s and now they are #39.
The offense is up to #9 after spending most of the season in the teens. I think that has been an encouraging sign for this team. When we make shots like we did against OU, Tech etc everything else improves.
The three teams KU compares the most on Kenpom include Villanova (#1 O, #34 D), UNC (#5 O, #40 D), Auburn (#12 O, #37 D). Villanova isn’t the stingy defensive team we remember playing a few years back in the Elite 8, UNC doesn’t defend anything, and Auburn’s best defender is out for the year which will impact their numbers going forward.
Doing a quick search there are at least 16 teams who Kenpom says their defense is better then KU’s but they have more losses then KU has on the season.
If KU can ride its offense the rest of the way and find defense when its needed we can win this whole thang’
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BShark said:
@JayHawkFanToo The streak will actually be broken next year.
I see what you did there. However, I said as long as KU stops winning and the other team stops losing; neither is likely.
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Nightmare bracket from Lunardi for us. And no…not Missouri. Kenpom #20 Butler as our 8 seed…
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CBS has the same. Rest of our CBS bracket I would like a lot though.
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BShark said:
Nightmare bracket from Lunardi for us. And no…not Missouri. Kenpom #20 Butler as our 8 seed…
It’s Lunardi’s weekly lunatic bracket. It’s either Mizzou or Wichita we are destined to play every week
Butler is seeded accordingly IMO after watching them a bunch. Their ceiling (beating Nova is a worry) but they haven’t played to it other then that.
Would take that bracket in a heartbeat honestly
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@BeddieKU23 Defensive minded slow paced teams give me night terrors.
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Way too much basketball to be played and way too early to predict the brackets. Lunardi’s Bracketology is click bait and big business for ESPN; he even teaches a class in Bracketology at some East Coast University.
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BShark said:
@BeddieKU23 Defensive minded slow paced teams give me night terrors.
Their adjusted tempo is right around ours on Kenpom.
KU has gone more to half-court execution anyway. I think its helped Graham and Svi recently stay fresh on the court (as much as that possibly can).
Butler is no defensive juggernaut like they used to be under the old coach. They actually like to go up and down the court with teams that like tempo. They are solid, not taking anything away from them. Comparing them to recent 2nd round matchups such as Michigan St & UConn I feel they are around par maybe slightly less formidable then those squads IMO.
Martin is a good player, a tough matchup for us at 6’7 with girth on him. Baldwin is a good complementary guard. Wideman would have to pack a lunch guarding Doke, they have nothing to even attempt at him. We have very favorable matchups elsewhere. Not seeing it with this team especially given the new coaching staff
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I will admit I haven’t watched a single Butler game all year.
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BShark said:
I will admit I haven’t watched a single Butler game all year.
The game they beat Nova, boy that was a clinic they put on offensively. They thrived with the pace of the game and Nova doesn’t defend so it was an exciting game to watch.
They recently lost at home to Georgetown by double digits. I’m surprised they are so highly rated by Kenpom. 20th on KP but tied in a logjam for 3rd in the Big-East. College BBall is having the strangest year ever
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@JayHawkFanToo It’s starting to settle in at this point. It is down to around 8 teams that we would play in the 2nd round at this point. Most teams probably only have 3 games left?
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Yes, plus conference tournaments, so more like 5-6?
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@BShark Lundardi hardly ever gets it right. I mean, it might be close, sort of. But what his bracket looks like and what the seeding committee actually releases on selection sunday aint ever been similar. Except for maybe the 1 and 2 seeds
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Tech taking a big hit in seeding here the last week, Evans didn’t play tonight and WVU jumped out to a 16-0 lead in a easy win.
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kjayhawks said:
Tech taking a big hit in seeding here the last week, Evans didn’t play tonight and WVU jumped out to a 16-0 lead in a easy win.
Zach Smith didn’t play either. Seems like Beard was content to rest them from this game due to style of play and physicality and take the L
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@BeddieKU23 So weird that they were good to go for the KU game.
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BShark said:
@BeddieKU23 So weird that they were good to go for the KU game.
Of course, the game meant something especially with Gameday. After losing it seems Beard choose the future over the game vs WVU. I don’t blame him, he could ill afford to lose either for the stretch run with both recovering from injuries. The Collapse of Tech in a week has been epic
