Bracketology thread for the next few weeks.
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#1 seed nearing reality?
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@wissox still work to do. But is looking like more of a probability
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With Syracuse getting whipped by duke and Roach’s heroics to lift Texas by Okie State they may still have a chance to get in. Baylor was in but another loss on the road to TCU hurt their chances. It may depend on who goes further in the B12 tournament to determine who gets in between Texas and Baylor, I personally think OU should be in the same boat tho most had them as a 9 or 10 before today’s win over KSU. At this point it seems that KU, WVU, TT, TCU and KSU should all be locks IMO. Oklahoma, Texas and Baylor probably all don’t get in but it looks like there is a fat chance 2 of the 3 do, ether way 7 or 8 of a 10 team league is pretty salty. Hopefully the conference can back up the hype that they have had all year about being the best conference.
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wissox said:
#1 seed nearing reality?
I think if we win the next two and a game or two in the Big 12 tournament, the one seed is a good probability.
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@kjayhawks you mean Trae young team? He’ll get in
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The more I look at it, the more I think Xavier will not be a 1 seed. They have 1 win over a ranked team. They have double digit losses to the other ranked team ( Nova ) they have faced. 3 ranked teams…2 losses. I see them losing in the BE tourney, and either Michigan Slease, or Dook passing them on the 1 line.
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Xavier with one game lead over Villanova and 2 easier games to finish conference play. If Xavier wins over Providence and De Paul, it wins the conference ending Villanova’s streak of 6, currently second longest to KU.
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@JayHawkFanToo Understood. I still am not sold as them as a 1 seed. I think they’re a 2 seed.
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It was more of a mention of the second current longest streak of 6 titles likely coming to an end. The next longest I believe is 4 which means the earliest KU’s streak could be broken is in 11 years (2030), asumming KU stops winning the conference (definitely not next year) and the other team continues winning; both highly unlikely.
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KUSTEVE said:
@JayHawkFanToo Understood. I still am not sold as them as a 1 seed. I think they’re a 2 seed.
I agree they look more like a 2 seed watching them play. Still their record is impressive, winning the Big East which also has a round robin schedule has to be considered as well and they don’t have bad losses from a RPI standpoint. Xavier has beaten 4 ranked teams at the time that they played them. They are 13-4 against the Top 100. What hurts them is the publicity Villanova has received all year long and losing both games to them, badly.
Duke is in the same boat, being overshadowed by Virginia in their own conference. They have to win against UNC Saturday and the ACC tourney to get a #1 seed IMO. Duke’s resume doesn’t give them a ton of room for error if they don’t.
Michigan St has a great record but has the weakest resume of any team being considered for a #1 seed. So weak they were a #3 seed in the initial reveal a few weeks ago. Michigan St will be the last #1 seed if the cards fall right for them.
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@JayHawkFanToo The streak will actually be broken next year.
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KU keeps winning and Kenpom keeps dropping its defense.
Meanwhile Duke plays a bunch of cupcakes and see’s their defense go from #90 to # 17 in two weeks. They have defended better playing zone defense, I’ll give them that.
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We have all agreed this could be the most topsy turvy tourney (like that?) in history. Any of the top 8 seed lines could probably beat any others. Figuring out distinctions between seed lines is probably hopeless.
But, if history is a guide, when things go crazy, consistency is paramount. KU is playing its most encouraging ball of the year in the most stressful circumstances–we were effectively in a single elimination situation involving our second most important season goal for 4 games running. Major factor in our favor!
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mayjay said:
We have all agreed this could be the most topsy turvy tourney (like that?) in history. Any of the top 8 seed lines could probably beat any others. Figuring out distinctions between seed lines is probably hopeless.
But, if history is a guide, when things go crazy, consistency is paramount. KU is playing its most encouraging ball of the year in the most stressful circumstances–we were effectively in a single elimination situation involving our second most important season goal for 4 games running. Major factor in our favor!
Agree! Momentum is on our side. Hopefully we can sustain it.
This team has a ton of guts when the stakes are the highest. It’s been impressive to see
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@BeddieKU23 No kidding. We went from #24 to #41 in defensive efficiency by giving up 74 to OU, and 72 to TT. Inexplicable. I have always thought that Kenpom’s # have been sketchy, so I don’t put much stock in whatever he’s cooking up. If you listen to him in an interview, he sounds like an oily used car salesman.
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@KUSTEVE Does defensive efficiency by KP factor in opp’s offensive rebounds?
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@mayjay That would have to be the only possible explanation. I still don’t see how that would make that huge of an impact. The other thing is we out rebounded OU by 13, then we lost by 5 to tech on the boards. Last time, I think Tech beat us by 15 on the boards. We held Tech to 42% shooting %, so I am still not seeing how we dropped so far.
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Yes, I have noticed improvement defensively, and I normally don’t put much stock into advanced metrics. The eye test reveals improvement, so that is what I am going with.
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@HawkChamp Agreed.
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@KUSTEVE Did it go down after OU, or just after both games combined? It could be that the OU game had little influence but TT alone was the reason. Acc to sports-reference.com, the only thing besides off rebs that was noticeably different between the two was TT’s off rtg of 112 compared to 102 for OU. 112 with the 13 off rebs by TTU may have been enough to drop us.
By comparison, UVA’s last 4 games have held opponents’ off rtgs to 100, 87, 100, and 67 (Pitt on Sat). We have not held a team below 102 since TCU on Feb 6 (95).
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mayjay said:
@KUSTEVE Did it go down after OU, or just after both games combined? It could be that the OU game had little influence but TT alone was the reason. Acc to sports-reference.com, the only thing besides off rebs that was noticeably different between the two was TT’s off rtg of 112 compared to 102 for OU. 112 with the 13 off rebs by TTU may have been enough to drop us.
By comparison, UVA’s last 4 games have held opponents’ off rtgs to 100, 87, 100, and 67 (Pitt on Sat). We have not held a team below 102 since TCU on Feb 6 (95).
Some of the bottom feeder ACC teams are not very good. Tech and West Virginia are much better than Pitt and its not even close.
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@mayjay We beat OU by 30, and our defensive eff goes from 24th up to 33. We beat Tech, and it went up to #41.
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mayjay said:
@KUSTEVE Did it go down after OU, or just after both games combined? It could be that the OU game had little influence but TT alone was the reason. Acc to sports-reference.com, the only thing besides off rebs that was noticeably different between the two was TT’s off rtg of 112 compared to 102 for OU. 112 with the 13 off rebs by TTU may have been enough to drop us.
By comparison, UVA’s last 4 games have held opponents’ off rtgs to 100, 87, 100, and 67 (Pitt on Sat). We have not held a team below 102 since TCU on Feb 6 (95).
The defensive #'s have been going the wrong way for the past month or so. KU was holding in the 20’s and now they are #39.
The offense is up to #9 after spending most of the season in the teens. I think that has been an encouraging sign for this team. When we make shots like we did against OU, Tech etc everything else improves.
The three teams KU compares the most on Kenpom include Villanova (#1 O, #34 D), UNC (#5 O, #40 D), Auburn (#12 O, #37 D). Villanova isn’t the stingy defensive team we remember playing a few years back in the Elite 8, UNC doesn’t defend anything, and Auburn’s best defender is out for the year which will impact their numbers going forward.
Doing a quick search there are at least 16 teams who Kenpom says their defense is better then KU’s but they have more losses then KU has on the season.
If KU can ride its offense the rest of the way and find defense when its needed we can win this whole thang’
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BShark said:
@JayHawkFanToo The streak will actually be broken next year.
I see what you did there. However, I said as long as KU stops winning and the other team stops losing; neither is likely.
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Nightmare bracket from Lunardi for us. And no…not Missouri. Kenpom #20 Butler as our 8 seed…
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CBS has the same. Rest of our CBS bracket I would like a lot though.
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BShark said:
Nightmare bracket from Lunardi for us. And no…not Missouri. Kenpom #20 Butler as our 8 seed…
It’s Lunardi’s weekly lunatic bracket. It’s either Mizzou or Wichita we are destined to play every week
Butler is seeded accordingly IMO after watching them a bunch. Their ceiling (beating Nova is a worry) but they haven’t played to it other then that.
Would take that bracket in a heartbeat honestly
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@BeddieKU23 Defensive minded slow paced teams give me night terrors.
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Way too much basketball to be played and way too early to predict the brackets. Lunardi’s Bracketology is click bait and big business for ESPN; he even teaches a class in Bracketology at some East Coast University.
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BShark said:
@BeddieKU23 Defensive minded slow paced teams give me night terrors.
Their adjusted tempo is right around ours on Kenpom.
KU has gone more to half-court execution anyway. I think its helped Graham and Svi recently stay fresh on the court (as much as that possibly can).
Butler is no defensive juggernaut like they used to be under the old coach. They actually like to go up and down the court with teams that like tempo. They are solid, not taking anything away from them. Comparing them to recent 2nd round matchups such as Michigan St & UConn I feel they are around par maybe slightly less formidable then those squads IMO.
Martin is a good player, a tough matchup for us at 6’7 with girth on him. Baldwin is a good complementary guard. Wideman would have to pack a lunch guarding Doke, they have nothing to even attempt at him. We have very favorable matchups elsewhere. Not seeing it with this team especially given the new coaching staff
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I will admit I haven’t watched a single Butler game all year.
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BShark said:
I will admit I haven’t watched a single Butler game all year.
The game they beat Nova, boy that was a clinic they put on offensively. They thrived with the pace of the game and Nova doesn’t defend so it was an exciting game to watch.
They recently lost at home to Georgetown by double digits. I’m surprised they are so highly rated by Kenpom. 20th on KP but tied in a logjam for 3rd in the Big-East. College BBall is having the strangest year ever
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@JayHawkFanToo It’s starting to settle in at this point. It is down to around 8 teams that we would play in the 2nd round at this point. Most teams probably only have 3 games left?
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Yes, plus conference tournaments, so more like 5-6?
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@BShark Lundardi hardly ever gets it right. I mean, it might be close, sort of. But what his bracket looks like and what the seeding committee actually releases on selection sunday aint ever been similar. Except for maybe the 1 and 2 seeds
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Tech taking a big hit in seeding here the last week, Evans didn’t play tonight and WVU jumped out to a 16-0 lead in a easy win.
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kjayhawks said:
Tech taking a big hit in seeding here the last week, Evans didn’t play tonight and WVU jumped out to a 16-0 lead in a easy win.
Zach Smith didn’t play either. Seems like Beard was content to rest them from this game due to style of play and physicality and take the L
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@BeddieKU23 So weird that they were good to go for the KU game.
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BShark said:
@BeddieKU23 So weird that they were good to go for the KU game.
Of course, the game meant something especially with Gameday. After losing it seems Beard choose the future over the game vs WVU. I don’t blame him, he could ill afford to lose either for the stretch run with both recovering from injuries. The Collapse of Tech in a week has been epic
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@BeddieKU23 They could finish 4th. TCU KSU is big tonight for the final standings.
If TCU wins out and KSU wins their last game that will be 3 teams at 10-8.
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BShark said:
@BeddieKU23 They could finish 4th. TCU KSU is big tonight for the final standings.
If TCU wins out and KSU wins their last game that will be 3 teams at 10-8.
Good to know. I still want Tech/WVU to finish 2-3 so that they play each other in the semi’s of the Big-12 tourney
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Agree! Though honestly I don’t care too much about the B12 tournament.
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Lulufulu said:
@BShark Lundardi hardly ever gets it right. I mean, it might be close, sort of. But what his bracket looks like and what the seeding committee actually releases on selection sunday aint ever been similar. Except for maybe the 1 and 2 seeds
Lunardi and other bracketologists’ real goals and measures of success are (1) to correctly predict who is in, (2) to predict the order of the 4 number 1 seeds, and (3) to get teams on the correct seeding line. I think they don’t care at all in measuring their accuracy about their matchup predictions, except where they might make an adjustment using the protocols the committee uses when dealing with the geographic placements of top teams near home if possible, and in avoiding early same-conference matchups when possible.
We are always put in with someone like WSU just to yank our chains and generate clicks. I have seen it in years past with other “predicted” 2nd round games that look like they would be interesting matchups, such as UCin or WVU vs UK, or UNCC vs NCSt.
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@BShark I am starting to really like the idea of having the Conference Tourney in December to kick off the year. And then giving NCAA automatic bids to conference regular season winners.
Or be like the Big 10 and have the Conference Tourney early so you can rest up for the Big Dance. They start tomorrow.
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@Kcmatt7 I don’t think that would work. I really dislike the conference tournament though.
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@BShark a lot of beat up teams
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TTU learned the hard way what it is like to be at the top and have a bull’s eye on your back with all teams gunning for you. KU is used to it, in fact it seems to thrive in it.
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JayHawkFanToo said:
TTU learned the hard way what it is like to be at the top and have a bull’s eye on your back with all teams gunning for you. KU is used to it, in fact it seems to thrive in it.
Tech definitely felt the pressure. The perfect storm though occurred with Evans getting injured and having some road games that exposed them just a bit. 17 of their 22 wins at home is something to keep in mind as we fill out our brackets.
The good thing for is we’ve proven to be the same team no matter the venue.There have been many years where KU is so dominate at home and good enough on the road/neutral that we see different versions of the team depending on where the game is played. Outside of a great shooting game in Allen Fieldhouse Tech has been a below average away from Lubbock. I’m hoping our success away from home is something these guys can continue to fuel a championship run
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@BeddieKU23 nice new avatar
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KU has played well on the road which is encouraging considering there are no more home games left and must win on the road to advance.
