National Hurricane Center
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@wissox Great work. What a nightmare.
And to think Houston’s metro area has 7 times the population, and almost 100 times the geographic size. The logistics of this flood are overwhelming.
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news keeps calling it the fourth largest city but I think it passed up Chicago for 3rd place in the last couple of years. Chitown is losing residents fast.
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@wissox Houston isn’t bigger than Chicago yet, but should happen in the next few years.
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Edit: the total rain volume of 16 trillion gals cited previously (from various news reports) must be high by a factor of as much as 16. Or maybe it represents all the entire storm dropped including over water. Consider: 10,000 sq miles is what wikipedia says is the metro area, and I unthinkingly used that number, but on further reflection that is crazy. It would require an area 250 miles x40 miles. Even the LA Metro area isn’t that big. Houston is 637 sq miles. Use that. Thx, wikipedia.
Each sq mi is 640 acres. 1 acre foot is the volume required to cover an acre of ground to a depth of 1 foot. So, 640 acre feet to do so in one sq mile. Each acre foot has some 325,000 gal of water. Assume it has rained an average of 36" or 3 ft in the Houston area. Some, more, some less. Average.
325,000 gal x 640 acrefeet x 637 sq mi x 3 feet = @488 billion gal of water.
The mayor said 1 trillion today. That might be true if you include the surrounding area.
Sorry for the misleading info.
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Crazy, I believe Houston is the 4th most populous city in the country. Continued prayers to Texas and Louisiana.
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See my edit of the total rain volume for a massive correction.
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Here is the NHC’s latest graphic. TS Irma is getting ready to cross the Atlantic and will be a hurricane in a few days. Arrival in Caribbean in about 8 to 10 days.
This is the kind of storm that if it develops a couple hundred miles north, often curves off to the north. But when it stays south, it gets into the warm water, picks up steam, and can blast the Antilles, Bahamas, and the SE. I remember Hanna and Ike in 2008. Hopefully, it turns north. (Wait for 2008 track image to load.)
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A path like Ike took would be devastating.
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@Kcmatt7 Irma is now a Cat 2 hurricane, soon to be 3. The path looks generally like Ike so far, but it has developed faster and stronger further out, and the projected path is further south. I fear it could go south of the V Islands, hit Jamaica and then Yucatan, before fish hooking back up through the Gulf into Tx or La or Miss. Or it could turn NW and track Ike. If it was looking to go more north this far out, it could duplicate Matthew last year.
Whatever direction it goes, unless it veers north soon, I fear a really big one.
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@mayjay None of the computer models currently have Irma reaching the Gulf of Mexico.
This is the latest model for today for Irma’s path which is nothing like Ike’s path. Ike formed at about 40W and 17N while Irma is already a Cat. 2 is approximately at 33W and 17N. Irma is currently several hundred miles further east than Ike started at.
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@Texas-Hawk-10 Yeah most of the models now show a northern veer. (Not the one in red, which has it much slower.) I saw a couple of analyses that question what would take Ike over the steering ridge. It is too far away for the models to be very predictive, but north is good.
I was referring to Ike’s path when it first was growing into a tropical depression in about the same place Irma did (before either reached named status), between Africa and the islands.
Back then my wife and I were eagerly looking forward to our first timeshare vacation in the Bahamas. Our week was Labor Day week, and we had convinced friends to go with us. I started looking at the NHC maps several weeks before and saw the clouds growing off Africa about 3 weeks before our trip. As it grew, I kept calculating its potential arrival dates because we had about 4 grand riding on this, plus our friends had taken unpaid leave that couldn’t be rescheduled or cancelled.
When Ike became a hurricane, Hanna was wandering around north of PR. We were more worried about Ike, but it suddenly went more south. Hanna then aimed straight at Nassau (77.5 W, 25 N) a couple days before our flights.
I called the resort, which said they were cancelling all reservations due to Hanna and some lingering uncertainty about Ike. They let us put our timeshare into the bank.
We ended up driving to Gatlinburg, Tenn, to stay at a friend’s condo for the week. Mountains rather than ocean.
Hanna did a loop south and then went north, and missed Nassau by 100 miles or so. The airline would not refund $ since the airport was open, and gave us a credit minus $200 each. But the credit was only good for a year from our initial purchase (December 2007), so we had 3 months but no vacation time to use those tickets. So, they expired for all 4 of us.
I am a tad paranoid about Aug/Sept tropical weather since then. Trading to Hawaii this year took the stress level down a long ways!
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@Texas-Hawk-10 Models still in disarray. Here is a discussion from CNN of the considerations going into the two paths. The NHC discussion of its forecast has been favoring the southern track from the European model because different simulations on it consistently are giving a similar result, while the other models showing a northern track are all over the map.
http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/31/us/hurricane-irma-forecast-weather/index.html (you can see accompanying graphics on the site)
There is considerable confidence that Hurricane Irma will track to the west through the weekend and then take a slight jog to the southwest early next week in response “to a building ridge (of high pressure) over the central Atlantic.”
From there, the forecast becomes a lot less clear, with some major differences among some of the key models meteorologists use to forecast hurricanes. The differences are so drastic that one prediction has Irma sliding harmlessly back out to sea, while in another, it makes multiple disastrous landfalls in the Caribbean and likely hits the United States after that.
Dueling prediction models
The European model, or ECMWF, and the American GFS model have had some notable showdowns before, most notably with Hurricane Sandy.
Hurricane Sandy Fast Facts
With Sandy, the ECMWF correctly predicted a landfall in the Northeast nearly a week ahead, while the GFS continually kept the storm offshore in what became a major black eye for the US weather-modeling industry. There have been other examples in which the GFS model has outperformed its European counterpart, such as with a few major snowstorms in the Northeast.
Right now, the GFS has Irma taking a more northerly track that curves to the north before it reaches the Caribbean, thus making a US landfall much less likely.
The European model keeps the storm tracking further west and into the Caribbean by the middle of next week. “The ECMWF sees a much stronger ridge or Bermuda High (than the GFS) which forces Irma west, whereas the GFS has a weaker ridge and a more rightward, parabolic track,” said Ryan Maue, a meteorologist with WeatherBell Analytics.
European vs American weather models
“The prospects for major impacts anywhere from Cuba to Carolinas is concerning for this very reliable model,” Maue said.
Irma is still more than 1,700 miles east of the Leeward Islands, and any impacts from the storm wouldn’t be felt until Tuesday or Wednesday for the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. The forecast picture should become clearer after the weekend.
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For all you hurricane trackers, Irma is still unpredictable but it seems to be heading straight for the Bahamas. The following graphic is called “spaghetti modeling” and shows lots of different tracks using each of several meteorological computer models run a number of times with slightly different assumptions of changes in conditions.
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Monday morning run of computer models. Irma now projected to go more south, probably along the northern edge of Hispaniola and Cuba, then turn north. Straight up Florida is a possibility, but it could go toward the gulf. Doesn’t seem real likely it hits LA or TX on the projections, but if a high in the southern US develops, it will keep moving further west.
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Irma is now Category 5 hurricane. Looks like it skirts Dom Rep and Cuba and goes into the southeastern Gulf if it stays in the middle of 5-day forecast zone. They predict it will reduce in intensity in a couple days to a 4 but then could pick up again. Still no prediction by Nat H Center when it will turn north. PR, St Maarten, St Thomas, and other NE Antilles islands gonna get hit today and tomorrow.
Edit: Spaghetti models almost all go straight up Florida. State of energency declared for entire state. But so far, the spaghetti models have all been premature on when they think Irma will turn. Whatever happens, we could get a bunch of rain here in the SE if it fishhooks eventuallym
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In addition, the latest satellite images look like Africa is shooting spitballs at us. Not all those clouds will develop, but this is impressive.
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From the 11 a.m EDT discussion of Irma by the National Hurricane Center:
“This [current intensity] makes Irma the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic basin outside of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in the NHC records.”
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The US doesn’t have the disaster resources to deal with a massive hurricane hitting south Florida while still dealing with everything that Harvey did. This could be a large scale national crisis as far as recovery funds and resources. It would be a huge relief if this thing turns north and stays out to sea, not just for the safety of everyone in the Caribbean and Florida, but also to make sure the resources that are currently being focused on helping the folks in SE Texas aren’t spread thin due to another storm this soon.
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@justanotherfan Going to have to be a lot of people helping people. I may go help clean up one of the sites. I get 3 community service days free for work, so I may leave this weekend to go.
Does anyone know of organizations you can contact to volunteer with?
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@Kcmatt7 Good for you! I checked the Am Red Cross. They want a 10 day commitment for Houston because they have to train everybody they use. I am not sure about prepping elsewhere.
There are many groups that are associated with churches. Here is a site that contains a list of links: http://www.disastercenter.com/agency.htm Note: Samaritans Purse volunteers were the second flood–a good one–into my friend’s neighborhood after their houses all got water up to the roofline in Oct 2015. Hundreds arrived and helped strip drywall, pile trash, recovered salvagable items, distributed food to workers, and gave all types of support. The link for them in that list above didn’t work. Here it is: https://www.samaritanspurse.org
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After having my gut wrenched watching Harvey plow into Houston, now my gut is wrenched again watching the computer models with Irma. It is going to really smack us hard on the west coast of Florida.
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The last thing Puerto Rico needs is Irma. Rough.
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@KUSTEVE It is at least starting to look like the FL left coast has a chance to be okay if Irma continues to follow recent tracks further off the east coast.
That said, it is also now pointing straight at us here in South Carolina. Ironically, my sis-in-law is bringing her 90 year old dad to our house from Ft Lauderdale.
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The Keys are being evacuated, so that’s a sign of how dangerous this thing is. If you’re in the path, bunker down or get to safety. It’s already killed 10 or more people in the Caribbean. It should lose some steam before getting to Florida, but it’s still going to pack quite a punch. Be safe everyone.
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Our water system here in Columbia went down for almost 2 weeks 2 yrs ago. Irma may get here Monday as a TropStorm or less, but Sam’s Clubs and Walmart are already out of water. People here are very leery after Oct 2015!
Sis-in-law and her Dad turned left at Jacksonville and decided to drive to her home in Chicago instead of here. So, just us and Irma. I will be testing the generator, the chain saw, and roof integrity later today. Neighbor has not taken down two leaning trees near our house…
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As the 79F water needed for the care and feeding of hurricanes, even without weather engineering, is reputedly unusually deep at this time (around 250 feet of the top of the ocean around Carribean to Florida), gotta recommend evacuation…if not too late. 250 feet of water is a lot for a hurricane to blow off upwell some water cool enough to sap Irma. Exit stage north and west. Its times like these that the affluent with private airplanes have a HUGE advantage. Maybe we all better get our flying licenses and at least some kind of little Cessna.
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@mayjay No water, bread, batteries anywhere here. Going to Walmart tonight to hopefully snag some batteries.
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@KUSTEVE can you evacuate?
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@Crimsonorblue22 The traffic is bottled up for miles and miles. The problem with evacuating is you get stuck on the highway, and you run out of gas. And there is no gas to find. I have a mountain of food and water, and I’m going to ride it out.
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@KUSTEVE Good luck! If you get short on water, Irma might bring some you can collect in plastic bins before the wind gets bad. Ziplock bags can be frozen now (not filled completely; leave some air) for later use in coolers if your power goes out. Run water into any bottles you have, fill plastic trash bins with water to use for your toilets, and make sure your freezer is completely packed to keep things frozen.
Good luck!
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@mayjay fill bath tub!
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@Crimsonorblue22 Tub, too! Where ya been?
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@KUSTEVE @mayjay Ya’ll be careful. Not sure where you are Steve but we’re praying for a lot of people. My heart goes out to the poor peoples of the Caribbean that get battered by these things and many hundreds or even thousands of people die but we barely notice that here in the US.
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@wissox 5 a.m. forecast (EDT) from NHC has us out of the “cone” where the center is likely to go. If it holds, we will still get a few inches rain and wind but only 45 mph or so.
The cone now has Irma going up near Atlanta as a TStorm on its way to Nashville. Straight into Fla as a major hurricane, though, and up into Orlando as a Cat 1 or 2. Hope Southern Floridians have hunkered down!
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@wissox I am 3 blocks away from the water, but there is about a 20 foot retention wall, and a incline the water would have to go up in order to be a factor to me. Now, the other sides of the bay are in deep trouble, as there is no wall what so ever. So, it will probably flood the people on the lower end. We’re talking some really high dollar homes probably regretting that beautiful view about now.
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Found batteries last night. Got my water on Wednesday, and found gas really early yesterday morning. I think it is mandatory that all Hurricane nuts must purchase at least 1 6-pack of beer, so the tee totaler is going to break down, and buy some suds.
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I am so glad my dad does not live in Sarasota anymore. We do have lots of friends in that area though and praying for all the people in that area that will be affected.
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It is POURING outside. This storm wasn’t supposed to hit here until very early Monday morning. It is quite a gully washer outside.
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I AM NO EXPERT, and its probably too late, but…
I think most persons hoard the wrong things and try to carry too much.
Get a big back pack (70L and up), or water proof duffel bag with shoulder sling. Olive green or coyote brown. NOT CAMO. Get reversible rain cover for it. Orange one side, camo on the other. Use orange side to signal to search parties with. Use camo side at night to help conceal the bag in shadows. Stow rain cover day time to keep pack inconspicuous. When asleep, use the bungee cord off a boogie board, or surfboard and tie the back pack to your wrist. Fill it with:
-2 water filtration systems (like back packers use, one for back up);
-2 single propane burners and bottles (one burner for back up, and as many bottles as the back pack will hold with the following gear);
-2 STRIKE/SPARK fire starters
-imodium (one bottle for each person);
-antibiotics (however much you can scrounge up);
-power bars (3 bars per day/person x 7 days);
-beef jerky (2 bags per day/person x 7 days)
-fixed blade camping knife;
-4 nested camping cups;
-2 nested pans for boiling water (one a back up);
-1 pair walkie talkies (radio shack sells some super good ones for under a hundred, 2 pair is better. one pair for back up. Both pairs batteried.)
-1 little weather resistant NOAA weather radio in a zip lock bag.
-1 hatchet (preferably single forged piece);
-1 waterproof tactical flash light for you and 1 for each member of your party;
-1 mosquito net for each person;
-1 light cheap back pack for each person other than you;
-1 light sleeping bag with a water proof divvy bag for you and 1 for redundancy if you have more in your group (1 1-person bag for each two persons; sleep in shifts, SOMEONE HAS TO WATCH THE BACKPACK)
-1 life jacket for you,
-1 life jacket for your back pack;
-1 life jacket for each loved one.
-1 BRIGHTLY COLORED HAT FOR EACH PERSON
-batteries (ideally a folding solar battery charger for a place like Florida) all kept 2 batteries taped together per 1 zip lock bag, as many zip locked bags as needed)
-a roll of trash bags;
-poncho, or rain gear, for each person;
-100 feet of 750 paracord (with fishing bubbles clipped to it every 10 feet or so), or else just water ski rope (note: the rope is for staying connected while walking in water, or for lowering persons up or down. hold the rope, don’t tie it to people, except for raising and lowering. note also: the 750 paracord is tough to find, but 550 is not strong enough for raising , or lowering much.).
Keep everything in THE big back pack, or lashed to the big back pack and it stays in your reach all the time. DISTRIBUTE AND USE ITEMS AS NEEDED. The back pack and its contents are Noah’s ark.
If you have to abandon house, divide the propane bottles equally among all members of your group’s back packs. You carry one burner, the next most physically fit and mentally robust carries the other burner. Divide the strike/sparks between you two also. Divide the walkie talkies between you two also.
Assuming you have tons of can goods hoarded already and bottled water hoarded already.
BUT DON’T RELY SOLEY ON THE BOTTLED WATER. IT CAN GET SWEPT AWAY. IT CAN GET BURIED UNDER FALLEN STRUCTURES. IT CAN GET STOLEN. GET A BACK PACKER’S FILTRATION SYSTEM AND A PROPANE BURNER AND KEEP THEM EITHER HIDDEN, OR IN YOUR PACK ON YOUR PERSON. TURN THE FLOOD WATER INTO YOUR LIFE SUPPORT SYSTEM. WITH THESE ITEMS, AND WITH THE LIFE JACKETS, AND IMODIUM, YOU CAN SURVIVE ON THE MOVE AGAINST THE MOST DAUNTING ODDS, IF NECESSARY.
BOTTOM LINE: YOU ARE IN A ONE WEEK SURVIVAL GAME. MAYBE TWO. THE GAME IS CALLED “KEEP HYDRATED AND WITH ENOUGH CALORIES TO LAST TILL SERVICES RESUME, OR HELP COMES,” EVEN IF YOUR HOME GETS WASHED AWAY. YOU DO THIS BY FILTERING AND BOILING DRINKING WATER, AND BY FIGHTING OFF DIARRHEA, AND KEEPING YOUR MOUTH ABOVE WATER. ALMOST ANYTHING ELSE YOU CAN SURVIVE, AND CREATE A WORK AROUND FOR.
GOOD LUCK AND ROCK CHALK!
Thoughts and prayers at ya!
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@jaybate-1.0 That was a masterpiece.
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Follow your gut. I’m not a survival expert. But I have been reading some suggestions about bug-out bags, because of all of the natural disasters and nuclear threatening going on, and I thought I at least could share some of the thoughts they have triggered in me, regarding these two hurricane driven flooding crises some of us Americans have been bearing the brunt of. When I was a boy, before the Army Corps of Engineers had built one of its dams in the valley up river from my dad’s home town, I saw impressive flooding in his home town about ever 3rd or 4th year, if memory serves me. And my dad got caught in the west bottoms of Kansas City (the stock yards area) during the 1951 flood. I remember being scared by that high and rising water in that small town, even though we made it away from it. I remember my dad’s photographs of boarding a fishing boat from the second story window of his office building in the West Bottoms and seeing the silted streets when the water receded. I have been caught in two wild fires. The floods were a bit scarier, but its all dicey. I have considerable empathy for your situation, but I have never been caught in a hurricane, especially one of the largest ones on record, ever. My Dad was a Marine that survived three island invasion in WWII. He treated natural disasters like war. He said you’ve got to go in with a plan, be prepared for the plan to be disrupted, and then be ready to improvise with what you brought with you. Keep your head. Define the job and keep trying to do it no matter what. Find a way. Just keep focusing on finding a way. Say your prayers. And keep carrying on no matter what. If you get scared, shake it off and focus on the job. Its gotten me through two wild fires on my own and one flood with him. You get scared sometimes, but you fight through it doing your job. Likely things won’t go worst case, but know you can handle worst case, because you’re going to do your job no matter what. You’ve just got to prepare, and keep adapting to the situation, as it presents itself. Keep finding a way. Can do. If all ever looks lost, say, “Believe” and look for the door you can’t yet see.
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And remember: this is all going to be a memory, when Self rolls the balls out October 15th. We put up with all this other shit, so we can cheer them Jayhawks another season!
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First beer in months. This is hard core tee totaling. I think I have a buzz.
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@KUSTEVE dont jump your wall and go swimming!
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@KUSTEVE and et al
Sending following distilled for redundancy. You probably know it all and more…
IRMA FACTS
REPORT TIME: 11AM EDT; SATURDAY; 9/9/2017; NWS NHC ADVISORY 42
REPORT SOURCE: NWS via Palm Beach Post
LOCATION AS OF 11am EST: IRMA 285 MILES SE OF KEY WEST; WEAKENING ALONG CUBA COAST. Eye tracking Cuba coast east to west. Land exposure sapping IRMA down to low 4, high 3 Category.
LOCATION UPDATE: ( 210 miles from Miami latest Post update around 12:00 NOON Saturday; 9/9/2017; seems like some discrepancy between two reports given reputed 9-15 mph track speed)
STORM TRACK TO FLORIDA: IRMA PREDICTED TO SPIKE BACK UP OVER FLORIDA STRAITS AND HIT KEYS THEN FLORIDA WEST COAST WITH 140MPH WINDS: West edge of Bermuda HIGH will steer it north off Cuba coast shortly into Florida Straits, WHERE IT PICKS UP STEAM.
LAND FALL LOCATION: MOST LIKELY TO HIT AND FOLLOW FLORIDA WEST COAST, BUT EVEN SLIGHT PREDICTION ERROR ON TRACK BRINGS IT THROUGH MIAMI.
LAND FALL TIME FLORIDA KEYS: 8 AM SUNDAY 9/10/2017
LAND FALL TIME FLORIDA: 2PM SUNDAY 9/10/2017
STORM TRACK PREDICTION CONFIDENCE: “HIGH”
STORM RISKS: HIGH WINDS, STORM SURGE, TORNADOES
Palm Beach Post has a decent link for quick digest of Irma info with maps and feeds.
Uncle Sam’s NOAA is solid, too, if PB Post gets disrupted.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone
You may catch a break on the worst winds. But stay focused! Some may let their guards down. But not you.
Rock Chalk!
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I hope that this storm does not cause much devastation, hoping for everyone’s safety.
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@jaybate-1.0 @KUSTEVE better stop drinking or he’ll be swimming w/the
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@Crimsonorblue22 LOL. Now, that was funny…
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Night number 2 … beer number 2. I’ve become a raging lush.
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@KUSTEVE jethro! Aren’t you on the west side?
