Crootin Thread III, Wherein Some Players Probably Commit to KU
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HighEliteMajor said:
@Kcmatt7 I like per 40 analysis … posted a lot of that stuff over the years. It was particularly insightful with Diallo and Alexander. Others reacted quite negatively to the comparisons.
I remember the discussions. I think the biggest problem is if the 40/per stats are based on sample sizes under, say, 10-13 min per game. A guy can come in and really skew his numbers by being able to average 4 pts and 2 rebs in an average 6 minutes for 4 or 5 games, but might get no more than that every time he got extended minutes. I.e., can score in spurts but no distance on his motor.
The value to the stat is still there, but I think it is limited to comparing people whose actual game minutes are similar.
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@BeddieKU23 I only bring that one up because they have similar stat lines at that lower level and both seem to be fairly coordinated guys with high BBIQ.
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@Kcmatt7 The discussion of Whitman should prob go to the other thread.
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The other big key about grad transfers is they are such low risk. It’s like a one year contract in baseball.
Agree on the guards, Sexton would have been an electric signing. Young would have made KU boards happy, but he was never a great fit. Not saying I didn’t want him, because he would have been a fine add, but he reminded me of Frankamp.
I’m not big on Cunliffe. I think the staff has a lot of work to do there.
Garrett looks like a great multi-year addition to me. If he does blow up and show he can play PG, it might only be 2 years though.
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HighEliteMajor said:
Whitman looks better than Coleby. Obviously more athletic. All based solely on the video and the numbers/stats. Is he really better than Coleby?
Probably, but we won’t know for sure until we see him in a KU uniform. I’m not convinced Coleby’s knee could hold out for 20 minutes a game. Coleby was like that kid on the little league team who when he actually did anything positive, everyone was extremely happy for him. Coleby’s one, actually good game was the Texas game. He was just kind of…there in the Georgia, UK and Purdue games. So yeah, I would hope this kid is better. At the very least, he has two healthy knees.
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Kcmatt7 said:
@HighEliteMajor Agreed. I’m pretty sure I did a ton of analysis two years ago trying to see if there was a way stats could prove LL was our most effective post player. Couldn’t find anything to support it, and actually saw that Diallo was more effective per minute than LL. Significantly more effective…
I wish we had played Diallo more. But I think I’m in the minority with that.
Argh Diallo talk again, this is still bothersome for me so I’ll keep it short.
I think Diallo should have played more. Definitely instead of Jamari. Sure he was rather lost on the court most of the time, but he had the ability to make up for it. With more playing time, the hope would have been he would figure some things out. Some players just need the actual game time instead of practice, maybe this was the case with Diallo, but sadly we will never know. I think the biggest issue was his offense. He was easily determined as a net positive on D despite his lapses. His offense was worrisome, probably a net negative and I think he felt he had to shoot more often than he should have.
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I agree. Statistically speaking, the per 40 is similar to the models used by KenPom and Sagarin that get better as the sample size increases but are wildly unpredictable with small samples. The per 40 stat is better suited when players average at least 20 minutes. Players that average less than 10 minutes are in the game for situations that call for their specific strength or at the end of games, neither a typical game environment.
In Alexander and Diallo’s cases, the per 40 stat really is misleading because based on their on game stats they would never play 40 minutes…unless the NCAA allows 12-15 fouls before fouling out.
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Diallo sucked hind tit. He was lost and way behind. Raw with a late start. He needed 2-3 years in the system to be a + for KU.
Alexander was coming on strong late and would have been a big factor for KU in the NCAA tournament had he been allowed to play. His roll was expanding as the season went on. If allowed a second year Alexander would’ve been a beast! Diallo who knows?
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@mayjay @JayHawkFanToo Not an exact science to be sure. Lucas is a great example of a guy whose productivity in limited time ended up translating with more playing time. Traylor is an example where more playing time meant less production.
The fact that a player may never play 40 minutes because of fouls is irrelevant. Most players don’t may 40 minutes anyway. The choice of 40 minutes is a semi-random static number. Remember that. It could be per 30. Or per 48. It’s just chosen because that’s the length of a game, and most players never play 40 anyway, as mentioned (fouls or no fouls).
The per 40 is really a “per minute” stat. That’s how I always tried to break it down. Per minute. But, of course, it’s the same issue in determining what it means.
The ultimate key is to find the point of max productivity. With Traylor, it really was about 10 minutes per game. We saw that over his entire career. We could get bursts of good play.
With Diallo and Cliff, the more experience they could get, would likely lead to more productivity over longer stretches of PT. That’s because of their talent level. The limited PT gave us glimpse of what could be. We’ve seen that with multiple players at Kansas where they progressed and became more productive.
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Jeff Borzello ESPN Staff Writer
Hameir Wright said he’s still weighing a move back to 2017, but the plan right now is to take a prep year. Kansas and Michigan State are making a push. Miami, Syracuse, Villanova, Maryland, UCLA.
http://spartanavenue.com/2017/05/01/michigan-state-recruiting-hameir-wright-reclassify-2017/
Is he a real possibility in 2017 with Whitman?
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Michigan State people are very confident he will end up there. Some kind of family tie as well iirc.
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What happened to T. Mack from Texas? Why’d he get kicked? Seemed like he was coming on strong.
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dylans said:
What happened to T. Mack from Texas? Why’d he get kicked? Seemed like he was coming on strong.
Not much has been released on him, still don’t know why he was shown the door but he had to have pissed off Smart because it was him who suspended him and not the school. Here’s what I found
Those schools include South Carolina, Clemson, East Carolina, Florida, Florida State, Connecticut, Wake Forest, Georgia, DePaul and North Carolina.
Mack was home for spring break last week but did not visit any schools. He is going to finish the semester at Texas and then go from there to decide on his new school.
“I think he’s really waiting for the coaching changes and what players are transferring out or in,” Ms. Mack said. “He said it’s going to be much closer to South Carolina than he was. When he first talked about leaving, he said it’s more than likely an ACC or SEC school.”
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If we are to take what Matt is saying we are not getting Tilmon… Not even a visit…
His “KU is in it for Duval” has changed to “would be surprised if he picked KU”. So shocking
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BeddieKU23 said:
His “KU is in it for Duval” has changed to “would be surprised if he picked KU”. So shocking
Mystery of the century revealed.
At least he was pretty straight forward in that post. The bit about KU not being done if Tilmon/Duval go elsewhere combined with other bits makes it seem like Svi is leaving and so is Coleby.
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BeddieKU23 said:
If we are to take what Matt is saying we are not getting Tilmon… Not even a visit…
His “KU is in it for Duval” has changed to “would be surprised if he picked KU”. So shocking.
I missed this, where is it?
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Crimsonorblue22 said:
BeddieKU23 said:
If we are to take what Matt is saying we are not getting Tilmon… Not even a visit…
His “KU is in it for Duval” has changed to “would be surprised if he picked KU”. So shocking.
I missed this, where is it?
- Basically saying he thought Tilmon would visit but sounds like that’s not happening or not likely on the books right now. Things may change but there wasn’t much confidence in that post.
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BShark said:
BeddieKU23 said:
His “KU is in it for Duval” has changed to “would be surprised if he picked KU”. So shocking
Mystery of the century revealed.
At least he was pretty straight forward in that post. The bit about KU not being done if Tilmon/Duval go elsewhere combined with other bits makes it seem like Svi is leaving and so is Coleby.
Yeah I think the staff can’t close 2017 yet without knowing if Coleby is leaving after this semester or Svi stays in the draft. Still lots of players out there.
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BeddieKU23 said:
Crimsonorblue22 said:
BeddieKU23 said:
If we are to take what Matt is saying we are not getting Tilmon… Not even a visit…
His “KU is in it for Duval” has changed to “would be surprised if he picked KU”. So shocking.
I missed this, where is it?
- Basically saying he thought Tilmon would visit but sounds like that’s not happening or not likely on the books right now. Things may change but there wasn’t much confidence in that post.
About as negative as he gets lol.
As for your next post at this point it sure seems like Svi is gone. I’d love to see Coleby stay for post depth.
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Wow Kevin Knox to Kentucky. They have 1 million forwards now.
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I can’t laugh enough
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We’ve mentioned this kid before.
Jalen Carey 2018 combo guard from NY received a KU offer. Slater and Meyer CB’d him to KU. If Slater knows something that would be something to watch… Carey is very good! Typical Self guard.
Also to mention, he’s having a very good spring in AAU. 6’3 Top 50’ish type IMO
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BeddieKU23 said:
We’ve mentioned this kid before.
Jalen Carey 2018 combo guard from NY received a KU offer. Slater and Meyer CB’d him to KU. If Slater knows something that would be something to watch… Carey is very good! Typical Self guard.
Also to mention, he’s having a very good spring in AAU. 6’3 Top 50’ish type IMO
I was coming to post that Carey got his KU offer. I’m not surprised. I’d guess he could commit today if he wanted to. I would assume there is always a spot for Grimes, and then first to commit of Dotson/Carey/etc…
I don’t think Duke would offer Carey as they should land their top targets, same with UK. So I could definitely see KU being his top offer.
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I am not sure if this has already been mentioned but apparently Chandler Lawson, AKA the “third” brother was offfered a schoolie by KU. several other offers are mentioned in the article.
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JayHawkFanToo said:
I am not sure if this has already been mentioned but apparently Chandler Lawson, AKA the “third” brother was offfered a schoolie by KU. several other offers are mentioned in the article.
Yep. His dad might be moving to Lawrence to coach HS bball too. Wrap it up if that’s the case.
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JayHawkFanToo said:
I am not sure if this has already been mentioned but apparently Chandler Lawson, AKA the “third” brother was offfered a schoolie by KU. several other offers are mentioned in the article.
Oh, you Wiley guy. You managed to get me to click on a Star link. I hate giving those
s views!
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@BShark ya right now he has 23 offers. Florida, Indiana, Syracuse, Villanova U Conn to name some.- As of right now he is listed a # 82 on 247 rankings but I’m sure he will move up - -good size 6’3 PG out of New York chances are physical player coming out of there playing on the grounds of New York probably not afraid of drawing contact, not a bad thing. - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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Another kid to watch that we have been talking with a 2019 to go with Markese class. - -6’8 Isaiah Stewart also out of New York Rochester.
Of course the normal we are recruiting against - -Duke, N Carolina and us -says he really wants to hear from us that’s a good thing. - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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jayballer54 said:
Another kid to watch that we have been talking with a 2019 to go with Markese class. - -6’8 Isaiah Stewart also out of New York Rochester.
Of course the normal we are recruiting against - -Duke, N Carolina and us -says he really wants to hear from us that’s a good thing. - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
Doesn’t seem that likely given how deep KU is in with JRE, Chandler Lawson, Matt Hurt etc…
Watched what I could find of Marcedus Leech. I take it all back, no way he could be the odd man out. He might actually be a guard, very good handle for being 6’6’’. His ceiling is unreal.
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@BShark I suspect there could be a Greyson Allen effect going on. Maybe kids just don’t want to have him as their teammate. I certainly wouldn’t want to go to Duke if I knew he was going to be back on the team. Knox goes elsewhere, Duval taking a looong look at his options and not committing to what most think is a certain pick for him.
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@RockChalk ya I just can’t believe why he hasn’t announced there yet I mean from everything you hear and have heard it’s been ALL Duke, yet he hasn’t announced. Just keeps saying he is close, he is close. So WHY?
Maybe there is some truth about his grades after all. Maybe he IS goin to end up going over sea’s and play. Just doesn’t make any sense other wise. - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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If Duval goes to Seton Hall the Duke sites would implode.
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@BShark Not just Duke’s!
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Just have to laugh when a kid announces that he is about ready to announce when he is going to announce - you follow that lol ? ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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jayballer54 said:
Just have to laugh when a kid announces that he is about ready to announce when he is going to announce - you follow that lol ? ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
you shouldn’t be surprised with Duval.
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@BeddieKU23 Ya , I know. - -The longer this carries on and let me make this clear I by far am not looking for him to say he is coming here, no way BUT seems like the longer he drags his out, doesn’t it seem like he loves to be the center of attention ?
It has become very obvious he wants to make sure his announcement is the only one of the day. - -Is he a me, me, me guy? Beginning to look like it , not sure we would really want a player like that anyways, not sure if he would fit or become more of a bigger distraction and cost the team in the long run. - - Might be better that we DO have a Garrett in the mix after all. - -4 year player, more of a team player maybe. Not saying they are on the same level but still. – -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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Do any of the elite programs have any scholarships left? We know that KU is pretty much tapped out and I imagine most of the other major programs are as well. Wherever Duval chooses to go, there is a good chance that someone on that team will have to give up his scholarship which will result in bad chemistry. Not the best way to join a program but OADs don’t seem to care much about anybody else.
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jayballer54 said:
@BeddieKU23 Ya , I know. - -The longer this carries on and let me make this clear I by far am not looking for him to say he is coming here, no way BUT seems like the longer he drags his out, doesn’t it seem like he loves to be the center of attention ?
It has become very obvious he wants to make sure his announcement is the only one of the day. - -Is he a me, me, me guy? Beginning to look like it , not sure we would really want a player like that anyways, not sure if he would fit or become more of a bigger distraction and cost the team in the long run. - - Might be better that we DO have a Garrett in the mix after all. - -4 year player, more of a team player maybe. Not saying they are on the same level but still. – -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
Agree with all of it.
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JayHawkFanToo said:
Do any of the elite programs have any scholarships left? We know that KU is pretty much tapped out and I imagine most of the other major programs are as well. Wherever Duval chooses to go, there is a good chance that someone on that team will have to give up his scholarship which will result in bad chemistry. Not the best way to join a program but OADs don’t seem to care much about anybody else.
Room would be made for Duval. That said he isn’t coming to Lawrence.
Duke has LOTS of room I believe. Assuming Frank Jackson stays in the draft Duke has like 9 scholarship players.
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That’s counting the sub 300 player they just took as a practice body too. But hey, they signed some 5 stars!
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JayHawkFanToo said:
Do any of the elite programs have any scholarships left? We know that KU is pretty much tapped out and I imagine most of the other major programs are as well. Wherever Duval chooses to go, there is a good chance that someone on that team will have to give up his scholarship which will result in bad chemistry. Not the best way to join a program but OADs don’t seem to care much about anybody else.
Yes, Duke & Arizona have spots open. Even Kentucky could take him at this point even though they never were in it for him (which is the most shocking part of this kids entire recruitment).
There are a lot of imcomplete rosters still even in the 2nd week of May.
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BeddieKU23 said:
JayHawkFanToo said:
Do any of the elite programs have any scholarships left? We know that KU is pretty much tapped out and I imagine most of the other major programs are as well. Wherever Duval chooses to go, there is a good chance that someone on that team will have to give up his scholarship which will result in bad chemistry. Not the best way to join a program but OADs don’t seem to care much about anybody else.
Yes, Duke & Arizona have spots open. Even Kentucky could take him at this point even though they never were in it for him (which is the most shocking part of this kids entire recruitment).
There are a lot of imcomplete rosters still even in the 2nd week of May.
Yet people are bitching about Self, KU’s recruiting etc…
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BShark said:
BeddieKU23 said:
JayHawkFanToo said:
Do any of the elite programs have any scholarships left? We know that KU is pretty much tapped out and I imagine most of the other major programs are as well. Wherever Duval chooses to go, there is a good chance that someone on that team will have to give up his scholarship which will result in bad chemistry. Not the best way to join a program but OADs don’t seem to care much about anybody else.
Yes, Duke & Arizona have spots open. Even Kentucky could take him at this point even though they never were in it for him (which is the most shocking part of this kids entire recruitment).
There are a lot of imcomplete rosters still even in the 2nd week of May.
Yet people are bitching about Self, KU’s recruiting etc…
I find no matter what there will be whining…
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Agree. I mentioned in a thread on the shiver that I’ll worry more when the on court product starts slipping.
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BShark said:
Agree. I mentioned in a thread on the shiver that I’ll worry more when the on court product starts slipping.
which is a good thing we aren’t Duke fans right now. that’s a depressing state of fanbase right now
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@BeddieKU23 You know the perfect scenario for me would be, that after all this time for him to make his announcement, the perfect finish for me would be for him to announce - -somewhere other then Duke lmao.
People on their board well some, more all the time are starting to sweat nuggets. - -some saying look out for Arizona, - -others saying over sea’s. - -I think IF he were to announce ANYWHERE other then Duke, which I still believe that’s where he ends up but it would for sure be a Kodak moment.- - -you know what I mean , like that commercial you see where the person rattles off three or four scenario’s and gives a price for that scenario - -then come to the one where they say - -Priceless? – Ya that would for sure be Priceless lol.
Duke fans have this such attitude of greater then thou. - -Like I read some posters said - -WHY would anyone want to play for KU? - -REALLY? - -most of them have thought for so long it’s a wrap - just can’t emphasize enough how that would make my off season recruiting year lmao - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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He’ll play for Duke next year.
Zona would take him as an upgrade to the 2 PG’s they have on roster as well so I guess anything can happen as we have seen with Knox.
Seton Hall signed a PG just outside the Top 150 this week to fill their 13 up so that tells you where they stand.
Baylor was never a serious factor and Self kicked the tires enough to stick around but Graham coming back sealed that for us.
Duval is the perfect example of a kid who’d benefit from going straight to the NBA now if the rules allowed. He’d save coaches all the worries of recruitment and all the hoopla he’s put fans through for the past year
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Good point, I think as you mentioned Self recruited all these transfers to prevent the down year. He knew that years of putting guys in the league was going to come back at some point and after this year with the graduation of Graham he’s at a true turning point for the “old recruiting” methods.
Today’s landscape has changed and these guys who have D-1 experience, talent, and a sit-out year are going to be better players for KU outside of the Zion/Bagley/Barrett trio. It’s a gamble either way but we should be rewarded in the end
