Looking for a Betting Line on 3 of 4 FF Teams Being from EST?



  • Damn, that could be a tough bet to balance!!!



  • @jaybate-1.0

    A computer just whispered in my ear -

    1. Baylor
    2. West Virginia
    3. Duke
    4. Wichita State


  • @drgnslayr

    Have the Wichita Alumni moved the Round House to D.C. for the Inauguration???



  • @jaybate-1.0

    I would bet against that.

    Just scanning the top 15, 7 of the eight teams are from outside the EST. With two of the Kansas/UCLA/Gonzaga/Baylor group likely to snag #1 seeds, I doubt that EST can get three of the four FF teams. This is especially true because Baylor will likely not be in the same bracket as KU and West Virginia, and Oregon, UCLA and Arizona all have to get split up.

    With the middle of the Big 12 being pretty solid, there are a lot of Big 12 teams that could upset EST teams in the tournament. The SEC is weak and the ACC is very top heavy, so it’s doubtful EST will have much apart from those top teams.



  • We know that any team that makes it to the dance has a puncher’s chance of making it to the Final Four. Realistically, the top 12 teams have the better shot.

    • 1 Villanova EST
    • 2 Kansas CST
    • 3 UCLA PST
    • 4 Gonzaga PST
    • 5 Kentucky EST
    • 6 Baylor CST
    • 7 Creighton CST
    • 7 West Virginia EST
    • 9 North Carolina EST
    • 10 Florida State EST
    • 11 Oregon PST
    • 12 Louisville EST

    Top 4 teams

    • EST - 1
    • CST - 1
    • PST - 2

    Top 8 teams

    • EST - 3
    • CST - 3
    • PST - 2

    Top 12 teams

    • EST - 6
    • CST - 3
    • PST - 3

    As you can see, the more you look at the very top teams, the more unlikely that 3 EST are in the FF is. Of course the ranking will change in the next few weeks but I am not sure the top 12 will be that different other than in the relative ranking.



  • @JayHawkFanToo

    Nevertheless, I have a wild hunch that 3 of 4 FF teams will be from the EST.

    It is easy to accomplish with seeding.

    Put A top CST team and PST and lesser EST TEAMS in the tough half of the bracket, then CAKE WALK THE BEST EST TEAM IN THE EASY HALF OF THE BRACKET.

    REPEAT IN OTHER BRACKETS.



  • The last final to be played by two non EST teams was us in 2008.

    09 UNC-MSU

    10 Duke-Butler

    11 UConn-Butler

    12 UK-KU

    13 MI-Lou

    14 UK-UConn

    15 Duke-Wisconsin

    16 Vill-UNC

    In fact looking at that list, we were the last champion from outside the eastern time zone!

    Since 2000, us and MSU only champs from outside the eastern time zone. You might be onto something @jaybate-1.0, just not sure what it is.



  • @wissox MSU is an EST program.



  • @wissox

    The difference is that this year we have more non-EST top teams. Of the current top 4, only Villanova is an EST team.



  • @jaybate-1.0

    UCLA, Gonzaga and now Oregon and possibly Arizona from the PST and KU and Baylor and probably Creighton (less so now that their top player is out for the season) from the CST zone are all FF candidates. Are you telling me that out of this 7 teams with a decent shot to tre FF only one makes it…considering that UCLA, KU and Gonzaga will likely be in different regions? Possible, Yes, Probable? No…and no amount of seeding or miss-seeding can accomplish this.



  • @justanotherfan Big 12 teams upset anyone in tournament…Id bet against that all day long until some teams show ability to perform in the big dance at all.



  • @JayHawkFanToo Clearly you don’t understand the narcotic power of believing in engineering!



  • 3 nights ago I woke up in cold sweats flashing back to being seeded 1 with Nova as the 2 and Graham “phantom called” out of the game. Not sure why my mind went there. I guess, maybe the chiefs game triggered it.



  • @Texas-Hawk-10 Sure enough! I was thinking big 10, and well, not thinking!



  • @jaybate-1.0 I could see 2 easy…if there is 3…then I’ll believe your engineering theory.



  • @JayHawkFanToo Gonzaga and UCLA both end up out west. Arizona is the one that’ll moved east. Gonzaga won’t go undefeated which they need to do to earn a 1 seed this year over UCLA amd they aren’t going undefeated because they will get upset at some point this year.



  • @mayjay

    Indeed, We engineers are more into reality and common sense…no crystals or pyramids or the zodiac for us…



  • @JayHawkFanToo Damned good thing or I am not ever climbing to a second story, or going across a bridge…



  • @JayHawkFanToo said:

    Are you telling me that out of this 7 teams with a decent shot to tre FF only one makes it…

    That is the hypothesis.

    Stack the left half of each bracket with the best teams. Put the CST teams in those half brackets.

    Stack the right half of the each bracket with lesser teams. Put and top EST team in that bracket.

    Let play play with asymmetric officiating.

    Voila!

    Final Four Stew.

    Three EST teams and 1 from somewhere else.



  • @jaybate-1.0

    Million dollar question: Will Adidas be represented in the FF this year?



  • @drgnslayr

    You know, its really hard to say.

    Seems about time.

    Hasn’t UA had its turn?



  • @Hawk8086

    Just to show that I’m not doctrinaire about this: I could also see them coming with 2 ESTs, a Texas team, and an LA team.

    I don’t want to leave the impression that they will stick to this EST bias indefinitely.

    Selecting a Texas and an LA team would really help with bet balancing.

    The point I am trying to make here is that there appear to be two levels of invitation to the March Carney.

    Hypothesis: 64 teams get formally invited to be seeded in the 64 tourney, while 4 teams appear to be selected for four berths in the Final Four.

    It appears to be two different tournaments.

    But time will tell.



  • @Blown

    Those that do not remember the past are doomed to repeat it.–G. Satayana

    Those that remember it wake up in cold sweats.–j. Satayanabate 1.0



  • @Blown

    Oh man that is a terrible nightmare to have!



  • “As you can see, the more you look at the very top teams, the more unlikely that 3 EST are in the FF is.”

    –@JayHawkFanToo

    Bet balancing made easier until the FF?

    Also, three of four of anything in the Final Four should be a rare anomaly; same with 2 of anything in the Final Two. Having an EST team (and sometimes two) in the Final Two every time since 2008 is remarkably anomalous. Once in a great while such things happen. Anomalies are called such because they happen rarely. They are outliers in clouds of tendency. The more frequently they occur, and the longer they persist, the MORE anomalous they become, until it reaches a point where in some analysis drivers of the anomaly are revealed. Some times the drivers are hardworking and perseverance. Some times they are bribery and deception. Some times they appear to have been engineering to entertainment values.



  • @jaybate-1.0

    Did Trier ever get off of enhancement drugs?



  • @drgnslayr last I heard there are still traces in his system. Still a chance for he will be cleared in the near future



  • @Crimsonorblue22

    Thanks… Didn’t we recruit him, too? I heard he wasn’t aware of having something in his system. That is possible so I give him the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise.



  • @drgnslayr

    Yup we recruited him. Arizona would have been a clear top 10 team with him this season.

    From what is written a family member/friend gave him the banned substance that he had no idea was illegal to help recover from a car accident he was involved with this summer. I guess the NCAA believed his case enough about his innocence to let him practice but until the substance is completely clean from his system he cannot play. Such an odd situation. A very humbling moment in life for the kid I bet



  • Just about 60 % of the Div 1 teams in the country are in the Eastern Time Zone, so that is always the most likely zone to be overrepresented. And a disproportionate number of Central Time Zone schools are agricultural schools in relatively rural areas that tend not to attract huge numbers of the urban demography who want to become bb and media sensations, and most of those schools are not heard of come tourney time. Third, more (obviously, not all, so don’t go all batsh-- on me!) of the longest-established bb leagues and schools are in the E than anywhere else. Finally, although the US population center is in the Central Time Zone (Missouri), the greatest concentration is in the Eastern Time Zone. Media concentration there reflects that.

    Engineering? Probably not. Some statistical quirks, but likely also the result of the fact that kids will want to go to schools getting exposure–how many kids stay up late to watch WAC games, or even PAC12?. Some here believe no recruit makes up his own mind, but that is silly. All IMHO, of course!



  • @drgnslayr

    Don’t recall Trier? What team?



  • @jaybate-1.0 arizona



  • @mayjay

    You are absolutely correct. Sometimes I watch PAC games when there is nothing better to do and they come at 10:00 pm CST; I can’t imagine watching a game at 11:00 pm EST.

    Normally the bulk of the top teams are on the East; however, this year there are 4 solid West coast teams and at least 3 In mid America that can make the Final Four.



  • @jaybate-1.0

    I can’t recall what I had for breakfast.



  • @drgnslayr Ask the NSA. They know… And your credit card company probably has some algorithm that can conclude what you likely ate.



  • @drgnslayr

    What’s breakfast? 😄



  • @mayjay

    The NSA used to not exist but knew EVERYTHING.

    Now it exists and knows everything.

    i sometimes feel like I don’t exist and know nothing.

    Life isn’t fair!!



  • "With the middle of the Big 12 being pretty solid, there are a lot of Big 12 teams that could upset EST teams in the tournament. "

    –@justanotherfan

    We expect this so many times and then apparent seeding and whistle asymmetry appears to prevent it.

    Or we find out our conference has been overhyped perhaps to help with bet balancing?

    I hope you’re right and we do great.

    I’m just skeptical.

    Nothing appears fundamentally different this season.

    And I’m not sure why apparent seeding and whistle asymmetry would cease to appear.



  • @mayjay

    Yikes! I think whatever the cc company knows the nsa already knows. I’m also certain my phone carrier knows what I eat, who I connect with, and can probably calculate the mpg on my truck. And that is just the beginning.



  • @drgnslayr said:

    can probably calculate the mpg on my truck.

    Switch to any recent VW vehicle. All the mpg info is carefully encrypted by a special device code-named “FALSIFIER”. Then your data will be safe, unknown even to you.



  • @mayjay

    Didn’t the feds actually imprison a VW exec for fudging mileage reports? It is somewhere there in my memory, probably under a pancake.



  • @drgnslayr Arizona’s Allonzo Trier will play tomorrow against UCLA, per a source.



  • @drgnslayr They just indicted another one. I think a few have pled guilty already. Not sure of this.


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