Bill RE: Next Season
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@BShark all but the Dickie v!
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Really enjoyed your long post comparing Young and Duval.
You convinced me, but it is rare for me to pick an OAD PG over a multi-year PG because we need experience at that position (for many reasons).
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No problem. We are in a rare position with the roster where a freshman point guard could be running the show next year. We are also lucky to be after two outstanding basketball players that both offer contrasting styles of play.
Iāve started to open up to the idea that Malik Newman might be one of our primary ball-handlers next year and his year practicing with the team is going to build the trust that Self needs in his floor general. I donāt think heās an ideal fit to run the team but Iām open to the idea after a lot of fellow bucketeers have expressed their opinion on him.
Duval is really good and if he ends up at KU we will be happy to know that at least we tried to fill the PG spot with the best possible talent available.
With Young I just feel will be better for the team next year and the future.
Self talked about how Josh Jackson āunpacked his bagsā a cliche to point out that even though heās an OAD heās completely bought into the team until the time comes for him to decide on his future. Without knowing Duval personally and just judging my opinion on how his recruitment process has gone and what scouts/etc have said I donāt think Duval would be the type that 'āunpacks the bagsā- kind of a kid that has 1 foot out the door as some do that know that College is just a stop on the road. That opinion is not meant to be negative in any way towards Duval, its simply just a thought I have regarding him.
Now with Young we have gotten a much deeper perspective of his recruitment. Heās big about his family and KU has been after him for over 2 years. When Young visited they rolled out the red-carpet. They played highlights of his father- a Texas Tech alum who played in Allen Fieldhouse and had a magical game years ago against KU. That hit home for the Young family and it was big for KU to use that as a recruiting tool. I feel as though Young will be here a few years if he came to KU and would be a player we get more out of. He has the ability to play major minutes as a freshman but also develop here and become a fan favorite. I love the versatility he offers on offense and his ability to shoot the ball. With how the game has changed Youngās ability to stretch the floor is a huge advantage to have on your team. We shall see in the coming months what happensā¦
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The question for me is always who makes the team better in each given year.
So next yearās core of Vick/Newman/Svi/Bragg/Azuibuke/Preston/Lightfoot/Garrett gets to add either a PG with a very good shooting touch that may be a bit undersized or a great athlete that may struggle with his shooting stroke, but is devastating in transition and when he gets into the paint.
Iām taking Duval with the group I listed above simply because he, Newman and Vick will put a lot of pressure on perimeter defense, and adding a guy like Duval to that core puts KU right back into the national title hunt.
Not saying that Young would be a disappointment. I think he would be great, but Duval puts so much pressure on the defense because of his slashing ability that he creates space by collapsing the defense, while Young creates space with his shooting gravity. The thing is, shooters have slumps. Slashing doesnāt slump.
Additionally, Duval has the superior defensive potential. That allows him to plug in alongside Vick and form a potentially dynamic defensive backcourt.
I donāt so much worry about 2018-19 because that team could be so much different. Youāre potentially looking at Azuibuke, Bragg, Vick and Newman all being gone, plus Svi. Trying to guess about how Young helps that next group is tough, because all we can assume is that Lightfoot and Garrett will be there, with Preston hopefully also back for year 2. Trying to project the rest of that squad is basically impossible. Maybe Newman is back, in which case it may not be critical to have Young returning. With that much uncertainty, Iād rather take Duval and see if the small difference between him and Young is the difference between a title or not than hope for two or three really good seasons from Young, but missing out on a Final Four.
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Many people in here complain about Kansas not winning more NCs.
I wonder how many championship teams are led by a freshman PG?
I know one team. Kentuckyā¦ 2012ā¦ against usā¦ Marquis Teague.
But other years? I have to put an asterisk beside that Kentucky team because Calipari was already used to making all-star freshmen produce in a starting role. Anthony Davis dominated that game with 6 blocks and probably more than 10 shots he changed. And he pulled down 16 rebounds.
If we go for OAD PGsā¦ arenāt we also sacrificing the next yearās chances as a national contender? So, essentially, we eliminate 2 years in contention?
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@Kcmatt7 Well we know Duval is for sure ONE year. Trae not so sure - - maybe - -maybe not, there is a chance he might have 2 yrs- -nothing promised on that but maybe. Would be quite the dilemma, - - as we know Duval IS the real deal, he could be playing in the N.B.A right now - -he is ready- -scouts says he is ready, as much he would be awesome to have - -I think I would go ahead and take Trae - -not a bad 2nd choice for sure - -ROCK CHALK ALL DAY LONG BABY
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Itās not ideal to have a freshman running the show. But what is the alternative? In a perfect world Devonte Graham would stay his senior year but even our coach thinks that wonāt happen. No other PG on the roster unless we want to say Newman is a PG. Itās been a great run with Graham/Mason but those guys donāt grow on treeās. The re-set button is on the horizon, we are going young it seems no matter what happens.
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@drgnslayr Duke won it with Fr Tyus Jones. Itās becoming more common as the talented kids bolt for the NBA.
Personally Iād take both players. Why not? Iām sure Bill could get them all on the court, esp. if the 4-1 looks good this year.
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Iām asking questions because I really donāt know. From my historic perspective it seems like a mistake to sign an OAD for PG. But looking at todayās game, maybe not.
Ah yes, Tyus Jones. Good response. So we have at least 2 freshmen PGs bringing home the gold in the past few years. That definitely makes me think harder about my āhistoric perspective.ā
Goshā¦ just look at Josh. Does he really play like a freshman? And by the end of this year, he may be playing like a senior. It isnāt just the fact that he is athletic and has a treasure chest full of moves. Sometimes you see him assess the situation and take advantage of his man out of position, or he bluffs like he is lagging on defense when he is preparing for another steal.
Maybe Iām thinking about this all wrong. Maybe I value the experience factor too much.
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I look at winning a national championship like this.
You have to have X amount of talent to win a national title. Thatās the bare minimum. Letās say that in any given year, you have to have 80 talent to win a national title at a minimum. Anything less than 80, you canāt win because you just arenāt talented enough to get through all of the games - maybe not even quite good enough to make the tournament.
Now, if you are only 80, you probably need to have a superb individual star carry you (think Kemba Walker or Danny Manning). As you move above 80, you donāt need that singular star because you just have so much talent at your disposal anyway.
So really, winning a title is a two step process. Step 1 is get to 80 - again, thatās just an arbitrary number to set a baseline. Step 2 is getting as high as you can after 80 to increase your chances. Letās say that for every point above 80 you go, your chances of winning a title increase by 20%. So if you have a 1% chance of winning a title with 80 talent, 81 talent gives you a 1.2% chance of winning, 82 gives you a 1.44% chance, 83 is 1.72%, 84 is 2.06% and so on.
So of course, based on that, you want to stockpile talent because that alone increases your chances just because you are good enough to win six games in a row because of your talent.
After that, itās still comes down to those six games, but your chances are better with more talent.
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I agree its risky because your basically hitting the re-set button in 2018 as well. Back to the same issue recruiting your next leader.
Duval is that situation. He might give you one spectacular season though.
Young is in the Devonte Graham route 2/3 maybe even 4 years of College. Young wonāt wow any scout with his size, athleticism, measurableās so heās a candidate to be a very good College player with a limited ceiling in the NBA. Young is the type of player that if he stayed 4 years, breaks scoring records. He scored 52 in a game recently with 9 dimes.
Self put us on the OAD map, heās chasing the best talent and knows that a 4 year window with top players has shrunk considerably. 7 of the 10 players on this years roster have a good chance of making an NBA roster in the future. The 2 kids heās signed already make 9.
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@drgnslayr We will still have Garrett to run point 2 years from now. Iād expect a So. Garrett to be ready to go.
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Interesting post. Never heard that concept before.
So using your ā80ā as a minimumā¦ where does this Kansas team come in at?
Andā¦ could Josh be that special player you mention? Or someone else on this team?
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This KU team is easily in the 90s on total talent. With as many as 7 future pros on the roster, this team has tons of talent. This team is easily more talented than last yearās team (probably more of a high 80s or low 90s level talent team). The most talented teams in recent memory were Kentucky 2015, Duke 2015, Kentucky 2012, North Carolina 2009, Florida 2007, Kansas 2008 and North Carolina 2005. The least talented champions were Duke 2010 and UConn 2011 and 2014.
Looking across the nation, the most talented teams (in no particular order) are Kansas, North Carolina, Kentucky, Duke, UCLA and Indiana. I would be very surprised if those six teams are healthy and at least 2 of them donāt get to the Final Four. Baylor, Villanova, and Xavier are all very good, but they canāt match those first six in terms of raw talent. However, I think I just listed three or four of the Final Four teams, and I am almost certain I just listed this seasonās champion.
Put it this way, if you told me that I had to, right now, pick this seasonās NCAA champion and you gave me five guesses, I would pick KU, UK, Duke, UCLA and UNC, and I would feel fairly comfortable that I would be right. Obviously thatās not foolproof, but with the level of talent those five teams have (itās possible that those teams have 12 of the first 17 picks in next yearās NBA draft, and possibly as many as 15 or 16 overall draftees. Thatās talent.
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Vanderbilt cut KU. Not a surprise, but now 100% confirmed he wonāt be a Hawk next year.
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Perfectly okay with that, watched some of his AAU games this summer couldnāt believe he was that highly ranked. maybe heās improved
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I will admit I havenāt seen much of him. Assumed he is good because Calimari wants him.
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@justanotherfan KU, UK, Duke, UCLA, UNC? You just listed all the most traditional high-elite blue bloods. Whats changed? Interesting how the top doesnt change much. Doesnt mean one of these teams cant get knocked off by someone in the madness, but the conventional wisdom hasnt changedā¦and its taken a TON of work by each of these programs and their coaches to be and remain on this list. Each of these teams is an absolute contender to win a NC this season. And in most seasons.
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Vanderbilt is good, donāt get me wrong I would put him more in the 40ās range because he lacks a jump-shot with any consistency right now. He can handle the ball and push the ball in transition, has pretty good vision, rebounds well and finishes above the rim. I donāt think he was a fit at KU from how we like our 3 and 4 man to have shooting ability. If that is the way Self recruits those positions going forward with how successful the last few years ago have gone, guys like Vanderbilt probably wonāt get as much attention from us. I know there was mutual interest for a while but I think when Self narrowed in on Preston, Vanderbilt wasnāt needed. We better hope that decision doesnāt backfire
I would like to see more of him but the games I saw him play he wasnāt as active as I expected. Definitely needs to learn to play with a more consistent motor to play under any of his finalists, especially UK. Oregon in my opinion would be the best fit for him as they like to use similar guys as their 4 man. Iāve had a hard time finding a good comp for him. For his ranking heās borderline OAD type but I donāt see it.
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Yikes, mom wants him close to homeā¦ That probably does it for KUās chances
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There are years where I wouldnāt list some of those schools. 2005, 2006 and 2009, for example, I would not have listed KU. Until this year, I probably wouldnāt have listed UCLA since the Ben Howland years. Kentucky, between the 1998 title and Calipari being hired, probably doesnāt make that list. UNC isnāt on that list for the years between Smith and Williams. Even Duke misses that list here and there despite not having a coaching change over the last 25 years or so.
The difference for these schools is that they have the resources to get back on that list. Butler had a great run, but couldnāt keep Brad Stevens. Had that been Indiana, they could have probably kept him (assuming he wasnāt set on going to the NBA). They are still good, but not title contender good.
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I am curious why you would leave out the 3 years Bill Guthridge was UNC HC? He compiled an 80-28 record that tied him for most wins all-time by a coach after 3 years and he made the Final Four twice in those 3 years. A pretty damn good record if you ask me.
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I forgot about those years. Went straight to the bad years after and left out those years. Good call on that.
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Yeah we will see how much it matters.
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Norm was watching Walker again today. Things are heating up.
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Sam Cunliffe visiting Jan 2nd. He recently escaped the ASU dumpster fire.
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Interesting, I liked Cunliffe out of High School. Very Athletic, deep range on the jumper, good handles and can get to the lane and finish. I see a player Self would want. Not sure he defends anything but weāll see how the visit goes.
Some ASU people have commented on his sudden departure. I can see where they might be upset, he was the highest ranked kid to come to ASU since James Harden. Tough to lose talent you think might be the face of your program if he developed. Might be a kid that needs to mature and be grounded. A lot of talk about him not getting along with teammates, upset with playing time even though he was starting, upset with role in the offense. Who knows what is actually true but there might be some ābaggageā attached to him. He attended 3 High Schools, switched AAU squads. Sounds like the typical todayās kid that wants everything. Honestly have no clue whether to believe those claims or not, but if he comes to KU he only has one way or its the highway. Would be a really good get as a mid-season transfer, I think KU needs him desperately if Svi tests the waters and leaves
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I hope we get him. Three years removed from HS Cunliffe is better than any wing KU can realistically get in the 2018 class as a Frosh.
If the staff misses on Young then Marcus Keene could be an option if he decides to grad transfer. Currently averaging 30 ppg for CMU. 5ā9āā 160 though.
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I agree weāll see what happens going forward. Iām sure he wants to enroll at another school rather soon.
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@BeddieKU23 @BShark Cunliffe would be a good pickup. Is he visiting anywhere else?
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Not sure. I feel it has to bode well that KU is getting a visit so soon.
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Saw Gonzaga could be in play, Cunliffe is from Washington. If he makes it past the KU visit without committing he might end up close to home.
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I read that scholarships could be an issue for Gonzaga.
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Interested to see if Self goes after Jahmal McMurray from South Florida who is also tranferring. Native of Wichita, prolific scorer but has some baggage apparently. Was averaging 20 a game in the 3 games he did play this season.
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Originally from Topeka, went down to Wichita to play at Sunrise. The reason for suspension was undisclosed, but I would think Bill could get that info if he were looking to take the kid.
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reflecting for a moment. Isnāt it crazy that we get intrigued by any transfer with a pulse these days? Itās almost become 2nd nature to be looking at the transfer market as just as an important tool to fill your roster as is getting those elite recruits and Frank Masonās of the world. Crazy how much things have changed
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@BeddieKU23 I wonder if thatās a product on the OAD era. Itās no big deal to leave after a year. Personally Iām a lifetime Jayhawk, no worries about me transferring my loyalty.
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Iām very happy we wonāt be losing you to Duke or Kentucky next year. Donāt be upset by the lack of likes on your posts. There will be brighter days ahead.
Definitely, the OAD era has created a trickle down effect. Kids want it all now and if they donāt they go where the next coach promises them a box of cookies. Just ask Andrew White- heās on his 3rd box now:bowtie:
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Yeah it can be tough to get program players when you are recruiting at a high level but arenāt Duke (gets to basically pick who they want) or UK (only recently slowed down by the Duke train).
With the caveat that Young is still on the board (and Duval technically is) KU could strike out on PGs in this class (I do count Newman in this class but not a true PG and Garrett is a wing/combo, very good playmaker but will likely play the three) so we could be in a spot where we need a grad transfer, but a regular transfer wouldnāt hurt either, to have waiting and developing for 2018.
This is why I love players like Russ Rob, Releford, Tyshawn, Reed, Morningstar, Mitch and Landen. Never gonna wow, but do the dirty work that needs to be done. Of course Russ and Rele came in as 5 stars so their situation was a bit different, but still.
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Iām not sure we can count on Svi being back next year. His game is really starting to open up this year and weāre not even into conference play yet. His ability and talent his showing that he his more than a spot shooter.
Donāt get me wrong another season would be great for Svi, but Iām not sure that happens.
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Definitely. Bill pretty much said itās completely up in the air with Svi in the article in the OP.
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@DoubleDD Maybe, but he hasnāt really been able to fully demonstrate or develop his playmaking ability. I guess to me the question is can he go lottery next year by facilitating the offense more. This year heād be late first round at best, imo.
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My fear is the international game keeps whispering in his ear too. I donāt know the numbers, yet I get this feeling he could make more money going to the International game for a couple years and then enter the NBA draft. I read something the other day that SVI is still a month younger than JJ.
My hope is Sviās parents are big on education, and would apply the pressure on Svi to finish up is education at KU. Then again Iāve been presently surprised by his play this year, and he seems to be getting better by each game. There is still a lot of games to be played.
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I recall an interview with Svi right after he picked Kansas. His dream is to play in the league. Period.
I know he is embracing his college days at Kansas. I hope he earns himself a degree and feel certain that he will.
He looks like he has already made half the leap up in play to make it in the NBA. When you consider that he is still just the age of a freshman, that is a great sign.
I fully expect him to return for his senior year. His game is still advancing rapidly while at Kansas and he is still very young. I donāt expect him to jump to lotto status this year, but you never know and there is a lot of season left. With Doke going down, it just opens up the possibility that much more of a guy like Svi getting even more minutes as we will be playing more 4-guard offense moving forward.
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Agreed. Once the demon of expectations was released, and he has just been allowed to work at getting better a little all the time, his young age has become time on his side, instead of time in his face. And he has gradually improved and the Ukrainean Cranium is soaking up the game like a sponge and the Steve Austin body rebuilding is slowly becoming more and more natural to him. It was hard for me to let go of that skinny, floppy, Pete Maravich kind of player he seemed to arrive as, but I have to say that if he can just find the gun sight he left somewhere around the Crimean, that this guy could with incremental progress become a real force still!
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So Vanderbilt popped for UK the other day. This makes 3 post commits for them.
Adebayo will be drafted and Willis is a SR. That leaves approximately 1 million post players still on their roster. I am thinking someone will transfer. Wynyard is the most likely candidate. 6ā10āā 250 pound beast buried on their bench. I could see it being Gabriel as well. Humphries seems like a program back-up big for them but he is only playing 11 minutes a game. 5 star Killeya-Jones is buried on their bench as well. If it happens, Iād bet KU would inquire about any of them.
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Gabriel isnāt going anywhere in my opinion. He just needs time to develop, when he puts it all together he will be a tantalizing hybrid forward type. Look for him to be a monster next year.
I agree on Wynyard and I think Humphries is a transfer candidate as well. I think Cal would rather role with his 3 freshman + Jones & Gabriel. Funny that they have stockpiled bigs when they are likely to lose their entire backcourt again
